Transcription
First video of the week, and the job will be to define where we are going, what scenarios are on the table. Are we going to go down, have a bullish retracement then go down, or are we going to have a bullish extension directly? We will look at the scenarios and the probabilities we have on the table, keeping in mind, and this nuance must be added, given how much things are heating up everywhere on social media, that all scenarios are possible. Crypto has accustomed us to seeing aberrant movements, whether upwards or downwards. So, we will take each scenario. I'm also saying this directly at the beginning of the video because for some, it's very difficult to concentrate for more than 15 minutes straight. My personal bias is still bullish. As long as I don't see a Bitcoin that technically confirms to me that it's entering a bear market, I will stick to my assessment that the structure remains bullish. And the famous extreme point that would indicate a reversal of the situation is this low point right here at the level of 74,000 to 75,000 dollars. I've said this many times already. So, it's not because we're looking at several scenarios on the table that my bias changes, that I'm changing my tune. Not at all. It's important to consider all the scenarios we have in order to prepare for all eventualities. Right now, many people are talking about Elliott waves because there are a few quite followed channels announcing Bitcoin at 50,000 dollars, at 40,000 dollars within 10 days. Personally, you know, this is an indicator that I use, but I like to use it in hindsight because when we start entering the famous wave movements, we don't necessarily realize if we are in wave one, wave two, and so on. And so, this is a technical indicator that I take into account when we are really at the end of a cycle movement, as I call them, meaning an entire cycle that has occurred with a wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 where we typically realize, like here, that the chances of having a 3 here were more or less high, the chances of having a 5 here are more or less high, and from there we look at the probabilities of a retracement or a trend reversal. You should always keep in mind that in Elliott waves, we have waves on higher timeframes, and we have sub-waves on lower timeframes. What I mean by that is that, for example, here, we are on a weekly timeframe, and each wave correction leads to A, B, C style corrections, except for a few corrective waves that have more complex structures like this one. Otherwise, the one we had before was a typical A, B, C structure, for example, here A, B, C, and right here AC as well. And since for now we now have an ABC style correction. What's interesting is that when on the weekly timeframe, we can take the extension waves and arrive at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 type extensions. On daily, even on 4-hour, we see precisely these corrective waves arriving with much more detail, and we can notice them much more easily. We can also start from the daily and say that, for example, in the corrective phase A right here, we can zoom in further on 4-hour and have precisely sub-waves like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 to arrive at wave A. So the problems are that as long as this support here holds on the weekly level, the probabilities of simply having a corrective wave of the ABC style here, like here, like here, are stronger than those of having a complete retracement. And so, the first step will be to say we remain in the same scenario. For now, this support is holding, and it's actually a support that formed at the Fibonacci retracement levels above 0.382. So this is a hyper important level to hold, which we have held every time. This has been seen on quite a few channels, so I won't dwell on it. You can see that this is a level we have held an enormous number of times. This level held, we went back up at the end of the week to hold it. So that's perfect. From there, the scenario has two options. Either we continue the bull run, in which case on the daily, we have made an ABC wave with the rules you know, meaning a wave A, a retracement of wave B that arrives at an optimal Fibonacci level that we also respected between 0.236 and 0.382. And from there, wave C, according to the rules, generally, in terms of probabilities, wave BA AC generally has the same distance as wave A. And that's what we saw last week. This famous extension of wave B was supposed to land us in this large range here, within which there was a lot of liquidation waiting, and we wanted to see bullish reactions from there that could indicate that we weren't going to resume a bearish structure directly but that we were going to make a new five-wave cycle. So a 2, 3, 4, 5 with not necessarily enormous bullish extensions like those we've had since the beginning of the bull run, but at least what I call a new Elliott wave cycle. That is to say, here we had a cycle 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Then we started a real big cycle, and we could very well have a final cycle that brings us simply to the liquidity closings that are here. And therefore, a bullish extension of a complete cycle that is not necessarily hyper high like what we had at the very beginning of the bull run. If now we validate scenario B, if indeed we are hyper bearish on Bitcoin, then there are two solutions. Either we will fall directly this week much lower, in which case we are still in this famous weekly wave A which would break this support. That's the first option. Second option, we are already bearish without knowing it and we don't break immediately. We are in A but we will make a retracement to set up B. In which case, you know, you who respect Elliott waves, there are three retracements that, in terms of probabilities, occur most often. 1 are the 0.382, they are the 0.618, and 3 is a small box between 0.786 and 0.868. In short, these are the three zones I've shown you here. The zone of 98,000 dollars, the zone of 108,000, and this famous zone right here which extends up to 120,000. A zone, by the way, in which we have a huge FVG that has not been retested with a lot of liquidity. If that's what we're trying to do, then there will be bearish extensions to respect. For now, it's still future music, but you know a bit about extensions. If we place a peak right here, we can look for zones that will go from 1 to 1.618. So that's very low. We are talking about zones between 53,000 and 26,000 dollars. So we have to see how far we go. If we make a more bullish retracement, for example, right here at the 108 level, that would give us a bearish extension at the level of 65,000 dollars down to 36,000 dollars. That seems more probable to me already. And if we retrace all the way up to this FVG here, the 1.618 are a final bearish extension target for the bottom that would seem quite ideal to me. Now, you know my opinion, for me, at the end of a bear market, we won't necessarily go here. We will go a bit lower, typically right here between the 33,000 and 31,000 zone. Now, it's too early to talk about that because the structure remains bullish. I know many people want to see the bear market right away, but technically, for now, there's nothing leading us to a breakdown. We are in a very different scenario than what we had at the end of 2021 because here at the end of 2021, you can see on the weekly level, we had a wave A that went up to here, a wave B, a wave C. We then had a Black Swan event here, the FTX exchange going bankrupt. But at the level of wave A, you can see that it was significant and led to a breakdown of this low. So, are we doing exactly the same thing as we did here? That is to say, a week that corrected very strongly and was then recovered, we are currently setting up a small consolidation phase like we are doing now. Will we then break down to set up this famous large wave A here? That's future music, but for now, the probabilities are not on that side. That's the first important point. The second important point is that even if we remain bullish, we keep in mind the scenario of a retracement before going lower. What are the elements that can help us estimate a return rather at the 98 level, rather at the 108 level, or rather at the 118 level? And a chart that I like to use is simply the volume profile. To see which levels have been the most traded and what these levels have historically led to in terms of prices. So you can see at the levels, when we look at the most traded levels, we have three at the moment. We have this famous support that we seem to have established at the end of last week. We have a large level right here at the 96, 97, even 98 level. This first stop we could have at the Elliott wave level. We then have another level here that extends from about 106 to 107, and you can see that here, 118-120 is not a level that has been heavily traded. So the first zone that directly attracts our attention is this zone here from 96 to 98. Why? Because it was an extremely traded zone, but historically, if you remember, it's a zone that led not only to a bearish rejection but also to a bullish rejection. Here we had a large distribution that took place, and that led to the famous Q1 2025 correction, which was simply abominable. And then once we returned here, we had another large accumulation, this time bullish, to lead to the resolution movement. So it's a somewhat mixed zone in which we had both a lot of buying but also a lot of selling right after the end of Q1. So it remains a mixed zone in terms of volume profile. The other zone that is more telling to me is rather this zone here from 104, 105, 106,000 because it's truly a zone in which we had good distribution. It's also a peak that could serve as defense for short-sellers, and it's from this peak that we initiated this famous large bearish wave right here. So for me, between the two zones, it would be rather this one that would be most likely to be protected by short-sellers and lead to a correction. Now, when I say correction, it can simply be a rapid rise, V-bottom style, and a correction right here to set up a W-bottom type structure. Accumulation that is much more evident on-chain than what appears before our eyes today. To establish a minimum structure, for example, by the end of this year and to head into Q1 2026 with potentially good news arriving. That still remains a possibility. When we look at liquidation clusters, we can see that the largest clusters are between 111,000 and 115,000 dollars. This gives us a zone that would directly reach almost the FVG that is here. Indeed, this is what we see the most. We have also seen on Glassnode that we have about 11 billion to come and reach up to the 100,000 to 105,000 dollar zone. So there is indeed a scenario in which we go up at least here, and from here we assess. That is to say, have we liquidated enough shorts? Are more and more shorts being created? Have we given the market a bullish sentiment that is just enormous just before reversing the structure? What's interesting, by the way, is that once we reach this zone, we could have a new, very psychological pattern emerge, which would be a Head and Shoulders pattern, right here, where we would have a second shoulder forming. The first being here, the head, the second shoulder right here to give a structure like a head and shoulders, whose targets you know. We take the distance between the head and the neckline, and we project it below the neckline, and that's the final target of the pattern. Exactly 30,000 dollars in this bottom zone. So it's really here that we will pay the most attention, in my opinion, in terms of on-chain data, in terms of what's happening, because there are quite a few things that are quite contrarian at the moment, which call not only for a very strong bullish retracement, and we'll look at that in a few seconds, but also which can lead to a much more significant correction in the market, and we'll talk about that in a future video. What interests me in this video to start the week is what are the bullish precursors here that will give us oxygen on Bitcoin, but also on altcoins, and on-chain, there are many things that inform us. I will give you one element, but I will not give all the elements because that is reserved for our private community. By the way, if you want to sign up, group 4 is open. You just need to go to millium-crypto.fr. You have the link in the description. You just come here, click on sign up, and you can join via a subscription the private group on Millennium. You can join the private group that is on Discord. And what we do is a lot of things for the community. We have a report that comes out every Monday that tells you exactly everything that's happening at the macro level, at the technical level, where we price what will happen during the week, the upcoming movements, how to protect yourself, which altcoins to buy, which altcoins to sell, buying levels, TP levels, SLs. When you arrive on Discord, you can see the opinions of the members, who are very numerous, numbering in the tens and tens, we are over 800 at the moment, and that will motivate you to know that you are in the right group and the right community. The subscription lasts for 1 month, it is renewable. So don't think that you are signing up for a long term this time. No, you can come for a month, see what's happening. If it suits you, it suits you and you stay. If it doesn't suit you, you can leave, it's without commitment. At this level, there's no problem. So click on the link in the description and join us quickly, we look forward to welcoming you. So, as I was saying, what are the elements that can allow us to appreciate that we have established at least a bottom here to anticipate a rather significant rise, to have a return that would really target 108, 109, 110k and more. And one indicator that informs us a lot is this one. This indicator informs us about the price levels that are most accumulated or on which there is a lot of activity on Bitcoin. Now, we don't know if it's long-term accumulation. We don't know if it's simply movements of Bitcoin, for example, from cold wallets to hot wallets. All we have are the price levels on which the most Bitcoin has circulated. And what interests us are the zones in which we have bright red, like here, a sign that a lot of Bitcoin has circulated. So, again, we don't know if these are transfers between wallets, if these are purchases. Nevertheless, we can make a reading that is quite practical. I'm going to zoom in a bit, and you'll be able to see that here it informs us precisely about the number of Bitcoin that have moved, that have been bought. And you can see that it's very significant. We have a range between 84,000 dollars and 85,200 in which there have been 114,000, 216,000, 417,000, and 249,000 Bitcoin. So if we calculate, that makes about 667,890, that's almost 1 million Bitcoin that have been bought/transferred at these prices. So what I like to see, and historically if you look at the indicator, it has always been the case, is the price action when we arrive in red zones, precisely where, for example, here, 430,000 Bitcoin were bought/transferred, is to see the price action. When there is a transfer from cold wallets to hot wallets, for example, we know that it's more or less for selling. And what we have with this indicator is that when the price crosses this very red zone and bounces back from below, it generally means that there has been a massive sale of Bitcoin, and that we should expect distribution and a bearish movement. We had this reading in the first quarter of 2025, where it was glaring that we had a very red zone where the price came and bounced downwards, indicating that there was more prediction of distribution rather than accumulation. Here, what's happening is the opposite. First of all, it's the first time that in a single day, so much Bitcoin has been concentrated at a price level, and what we had this weekend is that precisely, once we reached this price level, we bounced back directly. This is not a loading zone, it's a local support zone, it's a zone in which precisely Elliott waves predict a wave C and therefore an end to a bearish movement. It's a zone that is located precisely above the 100-period MA on the weekly level, and it's a zone, if we zoom in on 4-hour, it's a zone that precisely took the last large liquidities that were accumulating here and filled this FVG just before the last point that reversed the structure from April 2025. So it's still a very big level, and what we have before our eyes at the moment is that it's a very big level that led to a concentration of Bitcoin, which is the largest we've seen in years. And that's an element to take into account that is very important. Regarding altcoins, we start with ETH, and what we can see is that a small rebound is also establishing itself in this zone, which was the most traded zone on ETH and which led to many structure reversals. Notably, right here, it was the end of the bearish momentum that led to a bullish rejection. Here too, before we crossed it, again bullish rejection, bullish rejection. Then we cross it, bearish rejection here too, here too. So it's a very important zone, and what we could also see yesterday was the appearance of a bright red zone, a sign that a lot of Ethereum had been accumulated/transferred. Again, we don't know, but we know that it's a huge level on which 6 million Ether have been concentrated. We have the same information as for Bitcoin. We have here a zone that, at the end of the correction, seems to concentrate a lot of supply, and that's a very good sign for the future. Regarding liquidation on ETH, it's also accumulating up to 4300 dollars. This is a zone that is quite interesting in the short term. Why? Because 4002 or 4006 are levels that are super interesting in all respects on ETH. Notably from the perspective of the options market, which is an institutional market that we saw with the community. We looked a bit at the targets on this market, and especially if we take this technical principle of Elliott waves, if we assume that the ABC style correction has ended here and has perfectly respected the conditions of Elliott waves. If we are setting up a large wave A here and we haven't finished the bearish extension at all, then the wave B that we could set up would no longer be of this style but rather of this style right here, large wave A, wave B that would make a correction up to this level, for example, then a bearish continuation. What's interesting is that if we isolate the Fibonacci levels again, to which we must make these retracements, well, we have several zones again. We have the first one here at the 3005 level, we have the second one which would be right here at the 4000 level, then the last one which would be between 4400 and 4600 approximately. We would establish a double top style structure before starting this famous bear market, while everyone would be bullish again right here. And so these could be very interesting zones not only for market makers, not only in terms of liquidity analysis, not only in terms of bias and sentiment before returning to a bearish level. However, if we zoom out on the weekly and remove all these annotations a bit, we observe very large divergences on altcoins from one altcoin to another. Typically on ETH here, we are bullish, you can see, we had indeed broken this low right here in March-April 2025, we had officially turned bearish on ETH. From that date, we completely reversed the structure to make a new high here. So as long as this low is protected, we remain in a bullish structure on ETH. Now, not all altcoins are in the same boat. If we take a very quick look at XRP, we are still bullish as long as we don't close below this low right here. Liquidity grab wicks are not a structural inversion. So we remain bullish, but we are on the verge of turning bearish. At the BMB level, we are still bullish. For Solana, however, it's not the same. You can see that we have established a new high right here. The protected low was this one from a purely technical point of view. We came and took it, and therefore from here on Solana, we could expect to have a double top structure like this one. And so what is targeted on Solana is a decline according to several principles. I invite you to join and like our page on Instagram. You have a summary analysis of Solana that indicates the key levels where you can reaccumulate, and it becomes interesting to buy again. So go to the Instagram page, like it, and you will have all the answers on quite a few altcoins. At the TRX level, we are still bullish. At the Ada level, we are still bullish. The lowest point established is here, the highest is here. The range right here with these lows is internal liquidity, intra-range as we call it. So as long as this support here holds, there's no problem. And there are quite a few altcoins that diverge like this. Zek, which is bullish, very liquid, which, by the way, I don't have a chart with much history, but which is still bullish, I believe. Link, which is still bullish, and then we have quite a few altcoins that are currently breaking new lows. If we take Dot, for example, it's breaking down. MN is still bullish. Tao is turning bearish again from a technical standpoint, and so on and so forth. So we really have imbalances between altcoins. We don't have clear points. The only clear point on which we can link all altcoins is Total 3. And what's happening is written. At the Total 3 level, we are right here on weekly. As a reminder, these are all altcoins, except Ethereum and except Bitcoin, even if Bitcoin is not an altcoin. And what you can see is that the support for Total 3 is located in this channel initiated between the 50 MA and the 100 MA period. You can see that we have come into it quite a few times, unlike Bitcoin, which bottomed out at the 50 MA level, we have touched it quite a few times in this large channel right here before turning around and going back up. So for now, we are still bullish on Total 3. The bottom to watch is this one right here. We are still above it. So, in terms of the total of altcoins, we remain on a bullish structure. Now, now the King remains Bitcoin. So we will follow what it does. Even if the probabilities of a rebound in this zone remain quite high, we will still be cautious, pay attention, have all scenarios in mind to manage our risk and pay close attention to whether we should increase our exposure, whether we should limit our risk and exit here, here, or here, whether partially or totally. And that's future music for the days or weeks to come. So if you want to stay as up-to-date as possible, subscribe to the channel, join Millennium, you have the link in the description. Join Instagram as well, and you'll have real-time information day after day. It's done. Have a good start to the week.