Transcription
Alright, hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about a bear market, we will talk about accumulation zones on BTC, about bearish signals that will need to be watched. We will also talk about Ethereum, about certain altcoins. We can review the big cryptos here if we need to accumulate them, what are the interesting zones. And we will also talk about the US market. Before I start the video, for those who don't know and who have joined the channel recently, every Sunday, I send out what I call the trader letter. It's simply a 100% free email. We talk about trading, investing, crypto, mindset, technical analysis, psychology. I cover a lot of topics with only one goal, to lift you up and allow you to simply be better in your investments and in your trading. It's 100% free. You get content that you won't see elsewhere, okay? So, I invite you to click on the first link in the description. Leave your email and you will receive your first email this Sunday. And if of course it doesn't interest you, you have the option to unsubscribe at any time. So there you go, I invite you to click on the first link in the description and join the trader letter.
So, I'll start here with BTC. We will really need to watch the upcoming weekly close because potentially if we close below $98,000 as it seems to be going for now, we could enter a bear market. In any case, we will have quite significant probabilities of entering it. When I talk like this about a bear market, I'm not saying it's 100% certain. That's not why I'm entering with a x100 leveraged short and saying it's 100% certain we're going there. But I'm just saying that there is a possibility that we enter with this type of structure. Already from a market context point of view, from a cyclicality point of view, I had signs that I didn't like. Okay. Whether it's a US market that is still at very, very high levels. The market from an economic point of view which is much more complicated with certainly interest rate cuts that are announced but which will surely be postponed, delayed because we have a return of inflation and so on and so forth. So, the macro context is not great. And especially the BTC cyclicality where historically it's something we've seen. Okay. If we base ourselves on previous cycles, we simply have a market top that is made 17 months after the halving and 35 months after its lowest point. We see it here, we take the lowest point, the top, there are 35 months. The halving, the top 17 months. Same for this top. Okay? And if we project ourselves with the current cycle, that would give us a top around September-October 2025, something that, well, for now, we have a top. We'll see if we make a new high perhaps in 2 or 3 years if that's a possibility, but for now, we have a top. So what was missing for me with this cyclicality aspect was technical confirmation. I had technical confirmation on two levels. First, when we lost $106,000, a little alarm went off in my head where I said, okay, we're losing an important first level. And the fact of settling now below $90,000. Now, be careful, the weekly close hasn't happened yet, okay? If there's a rebound, it could be maintained, okay? And this level could be defended, but I'm projecting. Okay, I'm projecting. If we close like this, yes, we could clearly enter a bearish market. Now, a bear market doesn't necessarily mean that's it, it's to the moon, to the moon to the basement and we go back to $35,000 in 2 weeks. No, a bear market is simply lower lows and lower highs. So nothing prevents us from retesting a bit higher, okay, to make what's called a downtrend as we had here. See, we have a dump here, we retrace. Here, we have a false breakout to go back down. So something quite classic in a downtrend of lower lows, lower highs. If we base ourselves on cyclicality and say, okay, well, we've topped, that's it, if we assume that, when could the bottom be? Well, historically the bottom, the lowest point, well not the bottom but the lowest point in any case occurs 12 months after the top. Here it was 14 months, here it was 12 months and here it was 12 months. In 12 months, it doesn't mean it's going back to the moon. It means that in any case, we have found the lowest point of this bear market. So if we assume that, that would bring us here around October, oops, October-November 2026 approximately. We are here? October-November 2026. And in between, in all this zone, here, oops, well, we will simply enter a bearish trend as we had exactly here. So there you go, that's if we assume we're entering a bear market.
Now, the word bear market can scare many people, but it's also here that the best opportunities can be created. If BTC comes back to $72,000, $60,000, it's here that you will have the best entry points. When we were in this bull market, of course, when we retrace to this level, there are interesting purchases that can be made. When we retrace here, there are interesting purchases. But you see the upside just after, it will be 50%, it will be here 60%, maybe x2 up to the highest point. But when we have a real bear market and we go back to extremely low levels, for example here 15, 16,000 on BTC, and you have entry prices like that, like me, even on Solana, I was able to get Solana at $25-$30, I was able to get, well, quite low prices for Ether at $1000, well, we have a much greater upside and you shouldn't be afraid to say, "Okay, the market is going to go down." Yes, but the people who are afraid of the market going down are the people who are 100% in crypto, who are all in. And I think I've been warning you lately about your cash balance in crypto, about how I was reducing my exposure, that I was starting to have quite a bit of cash. At first, I was 60/40, I went to 50/50, I went to 40/60, I might even reduce cash further. Well, the difference is that in my current 40/60, so 40% crypto, 60% cash, in this 40%, I have BTC, ETH, and Hype. And in this 40%, there's a part of BTC and ETH that I will never sell because, well, I estimate that in my long-term bag, okay, in this crypto part, there are BTC and ETH that I will never sell. That is to say, I have really long-term convictions, mainly on BTC, I have a bit of ETH, mainly on BTC where I tell myself, even if BTC takes a hit of -60%, I don't sell because, well, this is a part of my capital where I tell myself I'm not trying to time the market, I'm not trying to invest for 2 or 3 years. This is really for 10, 15, 20, 30 years like that where I decide to keep BTC. So I know I can never go to zero here at the lowest, I'll go to 20-25% maximum. So there you go, like here, I always had cryptos, BTC, ETH, I even had a bit of Solana that I bought back much lower. But but there, what I want you to understand is that those who are not calm right now are those who don't have cash, who are stuck. And yes, a person who is 100% crypto, if we experience a bear market, the next few months will be terrible because their capital will melt away and they will be unable to position themselves, which is a reality. So, well, in any case, we'll see the weekly close. I think if we have a bear market, I don't think it will be similar to what we've experienced, meaning a drop of -77%. I told you the maximum lowest point we could see is $40,000. There, the lowest point, which would be about, yes, still a -67%. I don't see BTC going below $40,000. Honestly, we have a big support level which will be $72,000 that we can, honestly, we can break $72,000, it's a bit like this level on BTC that we saw back then. So there you go, it's a big level. I think we can bounce off it a bit, but we'll see if it breaks or not. These are the first levels where I will be able to position myself for the long term because from a Fibonacci retracement point of view, we will have retraced quite significantly. We will be below 0.382. Then, if we go back to between 0.18 and 0.786, well, that's where I will, I didn't say all in but almost, I will go in hard because I estimate that a BTC returning to its long-term reload zone is an opportunity that comes once every four years. Last time, it was when we went back to this zone between 28 and 28,000 and 17,000, between 0.8 and 0.786, we perfectly set a bottom. So there you go, we'll have to see how the trend continues on BTC. It's possible that we close weekly above $90,000, we set a bottom and go to the moon. It's possible. The most important thing is to have cash and adapt. I have no problem exiting, reducing my exposure and two weeks later re-entering at the same place if I have a bullish signal. No ego, no trying to be right or anything, no. The goal is, okay, I have a signal, I enter, I have a signal, I exit and I adapt based on what I see. What has happened is that if BTC closes below this support level, we would break the long-term structure and then yes, it would be ugly. And well, to be followed. For now, we haven't broken it yet, I'll especially watch the closes, but if we do that, yes, we could enter a bearish dynamic. And be careful, if we enter a bearish dynamic, we need to find the lowest point that was found here in November 2022. After that, we need to set the bottom, we really need to set a, well, the structure we had at this level was an average structure, let's say in a small W structure that was formed here. And we can even see a larger structure at this level with a large accumulation structure. And then, yes, it went into a bearish trend. You see, if we set a bottom, it's several months later that we have a real performance. In the end, we see that between the lowest point and November, around 2023, well, there was a x2, but we don't have a big trend with a big explosion. It's normal that we set and structure a market top as we can currently structure, there needs to be a good accumulation period to start again. But that doesn't prevent there from being opportunities in a bearish trend, we can do trend continuation downwards, things that I teach in the "Become a Trader" program on how to trade a trend. We can take trades. I took a trade yesterday. Well, a bit against the trend, I had shared it on Discord, it was yesterday evening, a trade simply where, given the price action that was really special here, almost driven by algorithms on BTC on 15 minutes with a slow decline but we were chaining consecutive red candles. Generally, when we have that, it can happen that we have a strong rebound, not one that erases everything, but at least a significant rebound. And we went back to this zone where we had a lot of liquidity, we hunted these lows. We even hunted some lows that we had just before on a higher timeframe that I will show you now. You see this low, we went to get it. I had a weekly pivot point, a monthly pivot point, so a very good zone. I waited for a small buying reaction. My entry was quite aggressive, and I put my stop loss below the low here, approximately. Well, below the low, 97600 because I estimated that if we really lost this level, it meant we had lost these lows. It wasn't just a liquidity grab. And I took a partial TP around 100,000 and a bit, around 100,200, 300 globally in that zone. 50% partial TP. I moved my stop to break-even because after that I went to sleep, it was already past midnight. I put my stop loss at the entry price, a bit higher to avoid fees. In the end, I was stopped out here. So you see a trade a bit against the trend. These are trades that are quite risky, you have to be careful. But there, the goal is to close quite quickly. As soon as it moves, we close. The goal is not to say, "Ah, I'm catching the bottom and I'm going to aim for $110,000." No, with this, it's we take a small trade like this, you shouldn't look for risk-reward ratios of 10 to 1 because no, we're against the trend. Generally, the market is against us, and we see it clearly. And here, since well, we have a bearish trend and here the pullbacks in the 3-minute tunnel, the blue tunnel here are opportunities to short. We see it clearly here, we reject. Okay, we go back again, we reject again. Well, the US market opening at 3:30 PM, it seems to be pushing a bit, but in any case, we are at a resistance zone. But if we enter a bear market, we will still have clear opportunities to do trend continuation downwards for a trader. If I take again, well, the bear market we had at this level and I put moving averages, well, there's something to trade for a swing trader when we have pullbacks, see like this H4 tunnel, we have a good trend that has started, see, hop H4 tunnel, 1-hour tunnel, well, there's something to look for shorts because we are in a bearish trend, so pullbacks offer opportunities to take shorts. All of this, we will have time, of course, to see it in due course when we have recoveries. For now, as I say, we remain in this short-term, medium-term, potentially long-term bearish trend if we start closing like this weekly. So here, the goal is to have your plan for what's next, which must be prepared to simply have cash and know where you are potentially going to enter on BTC.
So, Bitcoin at the level of Ether. And well, we are not far from its first interesting zone on Ether, $3000. We are ultimately coming back to test this lower wick. We rejected around $3700 and we see clearly that ultimately, well, the resistance zones are doing their job, they are acting as resistance. We also remain in this bearish trend with here lower lows and lower highs. So Ether is also in a bearish dynamic. The difference is that Ether has corrected much more than BTC and is finding itself testing interesting support levels much faster than BTC. $3000 and $2200. In any case, I have shared my opinion on Ether, so we won't dwell on it. $3000 is a zone where I can enter a position if I have a buying reaction, okay? If I have a W pattern, if on the daily I have an interesting signal, otherwise I will wait to go back to much lower levels. For example, here, $2200. Otherwise, on the short term, it's globally the same thing. We put moving averages and we see clearly that we have a 3-minute below the 15-minute, a 15-minute below the 1-hour and a 1-hour below the 4-hour.
Now, I will talk about the US market because I am also watching it. We are still in an uptrend, that's a fact, but we are still in a very high market. Okay. And yes, it's scary to enter there for the long term. For me, it's out of the question, but it's scary in the sense that if the S&P 500 makes a top and retraces, it doesn't need to be -50%, but even a -15% to -20% retracement. Okay? Which is possible, it has done it recently, so I don't see why it couldn't do it again. Even retesting this previous ATH, this previous level. Oops! Which gives us an 11% drop, but we can have crypto markets that correct severely because we still have a correlation, even if it's a bit less lately, between the crypto market and traditional finance in the United States, S&P 500, NASDAQ, especially with the arrival of ETFs, Trump, etc. Not so much lately, but if the US market corrects, there will be a high chance of crypto markets correcting as well, whether it's S&P 500, NASDAQ. We are here on what are called risk-on assets, risky assets. Cryptos are clearly risky assets. Stocks too, indices too. So there you go, it's a switch for investors who will rather move from risk-on to risk-off, well, it will be indices of course, but also cryptos that will take a hit. So there you go, if we start structuring a top pattern here, it wouldn't be very good and we could have cryptos that correct much more. Well, from that perspective, of course, for the long term, I shared my strategy for this bear market from an accumulation point of view for BTC and ETH. I showed you my entry prices. I will also watch Hyperliquide. For me, it's my favorite project that has real potential. In fact, for other cryptos, it's not that I don't trust them, there can be interesting cryptos, it's just that BTC is too high and I have cryptos that are at major support levels. If I take for example, well, if I take, I can take, I can take Pierre, Ada. I can have who? Ing, for example, let's say someone says, wow, SE is coming back to major support levels, we are at low levels, every time we've had buying reactions. It's quite good. If I look at the chart itself, I agree, we are at major support levels. There can be setups for someone who says, I'm positioning myself at a major weekly or even monthly support level, they can enter here. The problem is that we have SE which is at a major support level and BTC which is extremely high. Believe me, if BTC corrects and plummets further, SE will lose this level. And entering cryptos where you lose major weekly or even monthly support levels is very difficult. And I shared all of that. I shared that on Discord earlier. If I take an example, oops, let's put it like this. Let's put, here, I'll activate all that. Okay, let's go to weekly. Oops, there, we are exactly at this point where I made my little square. See, we can be in this configuration. That is to say, if I take SE and other cryptos, we are at a major support level. Here on SE, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022. Here we are at a weekly or even monthly support. A support that technically on a chart is bought every day. Okay? Because it's a level that has a much higher chance of holding. Except that when we look at BTC, where are we at this point, we are at a level that remains high. Well, yes, we have corrected a bit, but you see that we are at -30% to -40%. So there you go, be careful, we are still high on BTC. This means that if BTC pushes further and corrects much lower, something it has done, well, there's a high chance that we will break downwards. And when you break such an important level downwards, it's very difficult to re-enter and go back up. That's why cryptos currently, there can be setups, I understand that. The problem is that if BTC plummets, potentially cryptos that will not make new ATHs again. And there you go, for example, I take Dot. See here, well, we are already settling below. That's a fact, we are losing our lowest point here, our range low. If BTC corrects, Dot will fall, and these are levels Dot will never go above again. Very, very unlikely. And there are many cryptos that are in this configuration. For example, ICP is the case, oops, it pumps, yes, very good, but ICP, if BTC dumps, we will lose these levels, okay, and we will lose a sideways phase that has been going on since 2022 from the bottom. That's why I'm very cautious about altcoins and I would prefer to position myself when BTC has corrected much more and when reversal structures start to form on cryptos. Now, the only crypto I'm watching as usual is Hyperliquide. It's the one we've worked on the most in 2025. The one that has given me very good performance, both from an investment and trading point of view. Here we are in this sideways phase. We see it's a crypto that's doing its own thing. I want to say. We have the market falling, we have BTC falling. It's doing its own thing. In fact, there is very low volatility. There isn't immense selling pressure. And there you go, for me, it's a crypto that won't suffer a -90%. Well, never say never because you never know, a faulty protocol, a major hack, you never know. It can go very fast. We saw it with Terra Luna in 2022. Well, it can go, it can go very fast but very unlikely. Okay. And for me, it's a crypto that I want to accumulate, but I would like to re-accumulate a bit lower, around $26. Now, the problem is, if we go back to $26, we will have the validation of a distribution phase. Okay, but we would still go back to good levels. For me, long-term, Hyperliquide, anything that comes back below $25 is a very good entry price. Here, $35, it can be a good entry zone because from the top, we have corrected quite a bit, but be careful, be careful, we are still at rather high levels. So there you go, I have my cash for now, I'm waiting. After, we can review certain altcoins on weekly and say, "Okay, if we go back there, it could be interesting." See, BNB, well, if we go back to this zone, yes, it could be interesting. We would be at -50%. This is an interesting zone. XRP. The zone that could be interesting is to go back to our previous levels. Well, I don't have the whole chart, let's take it here on crypto. Well, globally, going back to $1.30-$1.20, that could be a good zone. And if we have a big retracement, well, it will globally be 80 cents. Solana, there's the intermediate level of $120. After, it's true, if we retrace on Solana, it's much lower. $75 or even $50 if the market really pushes downwards. ADA, we are already at a very low support level. So if BTC falls, it will surely make an all-time low or a break of this major level downwards. And then we'll have to wait for a larger structure, but I can't position myself on that. Ax, it's exactly the same. See, if BTC takes a hit of 15-20%, well, it will make a new low. And I can't position myself on altcoins that break sideways phases since 2022 downwards because here, there are a lot of buyers who will be stuck. These are cryptos that will not have any upside or maybe a small rebound but it won't be amazing. Dogecoin, the level is there, it's globally 5 cents. TRX, well, there it is, it's globally 15 cents. Here, I'm giving you bear market levels, globally. Well, first bear market levels. We can go lower, but basically, these are the first interesting levels to position yourself for the long term. Chainlink, it will be the level between $5 and $8. Globally, this zone, we set a bottom here. Dot, it's ugly, it's the same. Breaking major levels. Toncoin, it's exactly the same. ICP, it's the same. Shib, it's the same. When I say it's the same, it's that if BTC takes a hit, okay, we won't stop there on Shib, we will break these levels. And if we break, there's no way I can position myself. It's not possible to position myself on a chart like this. Bitcoin Cash, we have the level of $280 and then the level of $125-$130. LTC, it's globally this zone of $40. XLM, it's this level of 15 cents. ETC, well, there you go, ETC, it's we have exactly a good example. If BTC breaks, well, it breaks downwards. Out of the question, it's a position chart that breaks such a large structure. Atom, it's exactly the same, largely. Algo, it's the same. STX, it's the same. Jup, it's the same. Here, we need to wait for reversal patterns. There are no key levels. EGLD, I won't talk about it. Apt, it's the same. Oops, it's the same. All these are cryptos that are in bearish trends. We have the level of around $1, but it wouldn't be amazing either. VET, it's exactly the same. Kaspa, it's the same. Sui, we could go back to this previous zone, globally, 60 cents. Injective, globally, $1-$2, this zone. Arbitrum, it's the same. SE, we saw it, it's the same. Tao, we have this zone of $180. After, if we have to go lower, we have $85. I did well to exit Tao when it reintegrated. Ave, here we have a good zone around $100 and then a very low extremity around $50 approximately. Hyperliquide, we saw it. Ber, it's the same. Aster, it's the same, and we don't care about that.
There you go, I wanted to go over some altcoins with you to tell you, well, in case we enter a bear market. Also look at Total 3. Total 3. Altcoins could be interesting if we go back to this level first. Here we have a good zone. Okay, we have this zone simply. We set our reversal structure at the previous ATH level.
So, I wanted to do a classic review here, definitely not pessimistic. Be careful to those who will say, "Oh, you're pessimistic, that's it, you see the bear market." No, I said I'm waiting for the closes. See, we seem to have a small buying reaction in this US session. Well, if we re-enter, if we push back and start going back above $99,000-$100,000, we can have a rescue, of course, it's possible. But I always prepare for the worst and I always prefer to show you, okay, if we enter a bear market, how to prepare for it, what we should do, how it will happen, etc., etc. So that you are simply ready because yes, there is a market degradation. I told you about that, that entering 2025 was going to be much more complicated. That's the case. Now, you just need to preserve your capital and make the right decisions. I'll leave you with that. I wish you a very good evening. Don't hesitate to subscribe to the trader letter and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.