Transcription
Today's number, guys, is three because we are witnessing something happening to the credit markets that hasn't occurred many times before. And it all has to do with credit default swaps. One of the biggest reads happening near all-time highs on the markets. What happened every other time? Well, in today's video, we'll take a look at why it's so important when it happens near the peak and the inflation yield breaking out along with Bitcoin starting to look like it could be forming an accumulation bottom. Join us as we go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos to break down everything that you need to know about markets today. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everybody to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and today we're discussing everything from the macro to what Wall Street's been up to to of course the darkpool activity that has been defining the last couple of sessions. And yes, Wall Street does seem to be active in these markets. So we'll go through that a little bit later on. Let's kick off things though with a great chart here at Subu Trade over on X and that is the AI cash allocation sentiment survey. Now we've seen this kind of happened before where cash has been very low and investors have been invested pretty heavily. And it turns out that the last three times this happened to these levels, we were actually close to peaks in markets and we started to see either sideways action or very low kind of gains on the S&P or we even saw larger declines come through such as the co pandemic.
Now, is this backed up with other information? Well, Jason got we retweeted this over on our FX evolution channel as well if you want to get check out get Jason and of course at Sentiment Trader as well. great website if you want to check it out as well guys. Uh does have here a really interesting read. So this is that basically bonds that is credit default swaps are starting to widen. So that means that there is a certain level of risk starting to appear back into the bonds market. Now we've talked a lot about complacency in the bonds market over the last years. And we really didn't see too much flinching by the bonds market until just recently around maybe 2 3 weeks ago. We started to have a little bit of an inkling that the bonds markets were maybe not so great. And of course AI and the Oracle bonds credit default swaps they've been expanding to levels past and higher than actually where we were in 2009. So during that peak of the financial crash.
Now why is this important? Well, basically, if you see bonds starting to flinch, then and it's happening near an all-time high, well, it's historically been a very interesting point. And although there's only three data points here, it's something that I think we can take into consideration when we're checking out markets. Now, there's a good chart here from at Grand Hawkridge over on X and basically it shows here that we are starting to get a little bit of information here in terms of large cap, midcap, and small caps. Basically, the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average has dwindled. So, you can see here percentage above 50-day only 27.4% 28% that kind of thing here from some of the major indices and that's kind of showing again breadth breakdown which is no surprise to most of you guys out there because of course we have seen this before and this is what happens often when a market sells off. He's also got a pretty cool risk on riskoff ratio. He often shares here at the daily number if you're interested and you can check that out. Uh but basically it shows here risk off and he's looking at usually gold, treasuries, yen, utilities and staples. We often talk about defensives and one of the things is that of course we've seen recently staples and utilities do very well and we were tracking that when we were looking at some of those charts together. So some critical stuff there that we've been witnessing in these markets.
Now we have seen a bit of risk off recently. It's not a new story and it probably isn't a new story to anyone else that's been viewing this because as you guys know since the Federal Reserve cut back in 2025, we have seen a very different market and that usually is more of a stage of a later cycle style market which we've looked at in terms of the data. If you're new here, make sure to sub, make sure to hit those bells because we do do this daily and of course we talk about the markets and and bring some of this information to light. So, great chart there from uh Grant.
Now let's have a look here at Blue Kurt's chart. Really cool one to kind of also discuss some topics this week. We do have an FOMC interest rate decision. It's expected that the forecast is basically going to be no change to interest rates at this stage, but probably the press conference is going to be what you want to be looking at. So that is what uh is the Fed really thinking in terms of the members and are we starting to see, you know, signs of okay, maybe we'll have to actually do a rate hike. The markets would really hate that if that did happen. So again, that could still be a story. We'll see what happens, but it's expected at the moment. The general consensus is no hikes even though 2-year spreads have broken up. We'll look at those soon. So this week is also a quadruple witching event, which basically means that there's a lot of options expirations going on. It can create a lot of volatility. You'll often see, and this chart actually kind of shows you here, that during the day before, it's actually a really good one here from Blue Kurdic, which shows that basically there's sometimes a little bit more volatility the day before, but you can see here the day before and the event day itself, you start to get a lot more coin flip style markets. 53 50% some interesting reads going on there. So certainly something to keep in mind.
Short ETF volumes, we're seeing a spike in ETF volumes here. So again interesting because when markets uh start to you know get oversold often they'll find basing structure and we did talk about this from the bank perspective. So we'll look later at Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs because both of those have come down to technical support when it comes to these markets. And what this shows here from at macrocharts.com and at macrocharts on X is that effectively a lot of probably retail traders as well are trying to short this market because ETFs have become one of the favored pairs for a lot of retail traders out there. Whether that's right or wrong of course uh some of them can be you know ETF doesn't necessarily mean safe guys. is you have to actually look at what it does in the fact sheet.
Asset managers net positions, they've also been kind of oversold. This chart here from Subu Trade kind of shows that. And what we can see is that there's a little bit of activity from Wall Street. So remember, we mentioned that before. Basically, darkpool activity has started to rise. And the reason we know that is because stocks such as the ETF code IV, which is a big S&P 500 ETF code, have started to see a little bit of transactions on them. And this is starting to cluster up. So you can see here that we've had lots at the peak and then we've got lots potentially at around the level of base. Does this mean that it's going up? No, of course it doesn't. But it does mean there's some activity here. And it could also be activity that ends up shorting. So as we often say it's patience, react, don't predict. The main thing here is have we changed market structure? You know, are we bullish or bearish on shorter time frames? And we'll look at that soon.
S&P 500 performance during major global oil supply disruptions. I think this is a pretty interesting chart. The general gist is that around a 60 to 100 days is often where you'll see the bottom of markets. Now, a lot of you guys in the comments section had differing opinions for how long everything goes on for, but if it does start to go longerlasting in terms of, you know, there's there's uh experience that this is going to continue for a long time, then that can suggest that sometimes this has actually caused a 10 or even 15% sell-off. So, there was one that was even worse. Uh, but we'll we'll find out. Around 60 to 100 days is often a pretty important read based on the averages.
Let's now jump into the charts here for a second and have a look by kicking off things with the S&P 500. And you can see here that we have a series of lower highs and lower lows as the markets kind of going down. So, here we have lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, and we just got to that level. So be interesting to see if the markets do want to get through this 6750. We're sitting at around that level at the time of this recording and you can see it here in the futures market which is coming up to touch a couple of key points. So let's just highlight that key point and why that could be key. First up uh we have of course the major kind of uh resistance area of the downward trend line. We also have a very important kind of box structure here which is effectively a a most traded area. Now most traded trend line all of this kind of comes in to potential resistance and while the markets are looking a little bit more bullish by breaking this higher high uh this I think is a pretty important zone. So we'll have to be watching it. Remember shorting markets very difficult bulling markets obviously uh my opinion anyway is that it's three times harder to short than it is to buy. Uh but at the same point we have a critical level coming up maybe into the Fed. Uh and I think that's probably where that announcement is now.
Does the options market agree with that? Are we seeing the options market supportive into this quad witching? Well, yes, kind of. You can see a lot of puts around and 6700 is now the most struck level quite a few times. And you can see by the end of the week, we've also got 6700 very well struck as is 66 as is kind of uh the the levels that get down to 6,500 in the future. So all of this level here is really where you're seeing a lot of activity from the biggest hedges and that's why we're getting a lot of data coming in that shows tons of hedging has been going on in the markets. Tons and tons and tons of hedging, put call ratios, etc. starting to rise up. Now often if they get too high and there's too many puts, that can also be a supportive thing for the markets. So on one hand, you know, there's some longerterm macro that's looking a little negative. On the other hand, there is some supportive evidence when you're looking at the charts. So, you've kind of got to think about time frames when you discussing this type of stuff.
Let's have a look at the cues again. 600 600 600. No surprise. You guys have seen it every single day almost for the last 2 weeks. And Nvidia, of course, is still holding above 170. So, that's critical. And Tesla is interesting about 400 410 things start to get a lot more bullish. At the moment, of course, we have a market that is uh kind of just hovering around a zone.
Now, what about IBIT? Well, I bit's an interesting one as well because uh when it comes to Bitcoin, we're starting to see the market really recover. And a lot of you in the comment section said, "Why could that be?" A lot of it has to do with when the market is finding, you know, a lot of volatility, often the beaten down sectors, the beaten down areas can actually find accumulation base. And in this case, you know, we are starting to see the possibility of something like positive gamma coming back into the Bitcoin market. So, it's a very different market to what we just saw there with the others.
Let's now take a look at the VIX and Actuality Research actually had a really cool little thought process I thought around this and basically uh what he was looking at was that if the VIX is underneath or the actual VIX is underneath the 10day moving average after it's kind of rallied up a lot that that often was a calming effect. And if you actually had a look at previous times uh when that occurred, such as this one over here in 2025 or this one over here back in October as well, that it that it was kind of like supportive of potentially a base on market structure. It's an interesting read and definitely shout out to him. PCC starting to rise up that suggests that there's more puts than calls being put into the market. Again, lots of hedging going on there, guys.
And I think the most interesting charts at the moment other than dollar, US dollar and S&P could be also the banks. You can see here Wells Fargo came down to its kind of trend line and kind of a very heavily traded zone. So I'll show you guys this uh so you can see it very heavily traded zone. So again, it's kind of starting to appear like maybe the banks even though they're in the press are actually looking a little bit stronger on markets. If we actually scroll across here to uh the break highs, you can also see that this has happened on Goldman Sachs as well coming down to the previous demand zone and you know a critical level of course for the markets.
US 2-year yields we have seen a break up. So this is pretty big. We have here of course a market that's been declining. All of a sudden yields have gone up. 10year 2year this could show inflation for the Aussies out there. Of course, we've all been hearing about, you know, yield yields going up and you can see here that that hasn't stopped over the last couple of days. We've had a rate hike already, one of the first central banks to do that, I believe, and we could be making a new high. So, the Australian economy is very susceptible to, of course, energy crisis periods and we do tend to see yields spike pretty heavily. So, again, these are showing signs that it's going to be very difficult for the US to cut a lot, maybe not even cut at all. And that's different to what the market thought. So all of a sudden you start to see bonds as well becoming more active. And that these are all the signs, you know, they're very different to 2024, 2023, that kind of period.
Let's look at the US dollar. Uh clearly we have a very interesting supportive kind of market. We have a resistance kind of area and at the moment is still trapped. Could this be a woff? Certainly could be. And uh we will watch to see whether the market decides to be more bullish and close above that kind of zone.
Semiconductors versus SPY, the backbone still is intact. We obviously look at this as the modern-day Dow theory, which I think is pretty important. And you can see here, gold uh really hasn't found too much buying pressure yet. So, a lot of people looking at gold and silver, but after that volatility only a few months ago, it's been kind of up, down, and all around. Technology stocks still barely holding on. Some key levels could be above 144. See actually some of these short candles kind of being bulled against, but hasn't really happened yet. And the NASDAQ itself is still holding on to 24,000 which is I guess you would say still structurally bullish on markets. So a lot of these markets are holding critical levels I guess is when you're looking at this.
Tesla itself daily 20 you can see here it's kind of continuing to sell off that. So no real changes there but there could be some options kind of moves in the future in terms of gamma which could reflect itself in charts. And you can see here when it comes to software sector similar to Bitcoin, it's still showing signs of resilience even in a market that's been uh pretty heavily sold.
Now speaking of Bitcoin and crypto, they're trading differently. You can see here that Ethereum broke up from its rangebound kind of base giving uh maybe the channel possibility A equals B kind of thing kind of coming through there. Uh could we be going towards 2500? Certainly could. Um massive key zone for that. And then of course we've got Bitcoin as well. So if we have a look at Bitcoin, the 79,000 area is is a very interesting zone because on the way down that was really the only supply left and therefore if we're going to go back up often markets will target those zones. So that's a technical level there on the charts and once we broke through 72,000 we obviously started to see a lot more strength in this market. So really critical stuff here happening. We're seeing Bitcoin find a lot more bull pressure. we're seeing banks kind of finding a potential supportive zone and then the S&P itself uh really contend with a very important level and I think maybe the Fed could be the catalyst here.
So let's have a look at what that could mean for us. Obviously we scroll down here to the federal decision and that's going to be on uh the next session. So basically we're getting quite a lot of news you can see here uh from the markets but on Wednesday we've got the FMC statement and the press conference. Now, the press conference at 2:30 p.m. New York time, that can be the most important read. So, make sure to remember sometimes it goes off in one direction, then down another one. And I think that's why we're coming back to the trend line and we're at critical levels because we want to see what the Fed has to say and the markets will then probably trade accordingly.
If you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe guys, check out some of our trading courses as well if you're interested in finding out more about how we replicate the concepts uh that we talk about. So that is of course to look at the education components of the charts and everything like that. And of course check us out on X as well. And um yeah, we love to see you there. So thank you so much. Hope you have a great day and we'll see you in the next one. Bye for now guys.