Transcription
They will be conducting our usual Sunday analysis, right? As you all know, you know, every Sunday we start with the economic calendar, which is one of the most important tools, right? Which we, you know, implement to our analysis, right? On a weekly basis.
So, as you guys can see, tomorrow there is a US bank holiday, right? So tomorrow we can expect low probability conditions, right? Not the best day to be trading, right? Tomorrow it will either form a range. It can do one of two things, right? It can either form a range, or it can just expand without, you know, giving us any good pullbacks to enter on, right? Right, it's one of the lowest probability days of the week, right? Mondays and, well, I believe that Mondays are, right? But if it's not Monday, it's usually Friday in regards to, you know, bad trading days. But Fridays are usually better than Mondays.
Tuesday, you guys can see that we do not have any high impact news events. This, right here, no high impact news events. This is just, you know, definitely not going to be a good daily trade either, right? So you guys probably heard, right, me say that after, you know, bank holidays or holidays, there is usually a low probability day, right? So days which follow bank holidays are usually either low probability or just very lackluster in terms of the price action that it gives you.
So starting again, Monday we have a bank holiday, so this is a no trading day for me. Tuesday, as well, there is no high impact news events, right? So this is a no trading day for me as well. Wednesday, now we have FOMC meeting minutes, right? At 2 p.m. This is not the actual, you know, FOMC that usually shakes the market, but this, this one is, you know, to, well, for me, it's tradable. So this, this will be in the afternoon session, right? In the second quarter, in regards to the nine-minute cycles of the afternoon session, right? So 2 p.m. on Wednesday, we could see some volatility to give us a setup to take in the afternoon.
Thursday, now, is where we will be focusing on for most of the time, right? This week. So New York session on Thursday is where we can expect to see most of the volatility. We can expect to see the markets move the most across the board, right? Across all asset classes. But there it is, crypto, Forex, commodities, or futures, right? Index futures. So we can expect Thursday, New York session, to form the low or high of the day, you know, in respect to specific classes, right? Because some classes, you know, they oppose one another. So the US dollar goes up, EU goes down, and GU goes down. US dollar goes down, you know, index futures such as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones, it will go up, right? So we're just expecting major turning points on Thursday. Emphasis on Thursday, right? So the lower, the lower, the higher, the week, definitely Thursday. And this is very easy to see, right? As you guys can see, you know, Thursday has three, basically three red dots or three red folders, right? Meanwhile, this has one, this has none, this has none, and Friday has none, right? It's sometimes it's actually that easy to see.
So now we'll look at the dollar index. So today, we'll start from the weekly time frame. As you guys know, my major draw on liquidity, where my, my main draw on liquidity would be above these highs, still above these highs, right? Now, we've been having, you know, a lot of sloppy price action. So we had price react to this order block right here after dropping into this fair value gap, right? This was exactly what we wanted to see last week, by the way, if you guys remember. For I drop down to the daily time frame, you guys can see we've been looking for this for a while now. So we had price sweep this low and fill this gap, which is what we anticipated. Afterwards, it ran above this high, right? And reacted to this week, right here, which is the higher time frame ARB. And we expected price to run above these highs and come back within the range, which it did, right? So, so far, we've been, you know, pretty much on point for the US dollar, the Euro, and, you know, GBP USD.
So for this week, we can either see price, right? We want to see price either run below this low or above this high before we consider anything, right? We have price trapped between liquidity at the moment. And how do you know that price is trapped between liquidity when it's between two swing points, right? So this low right here is a swing point, and this high is a swing point as well. This high is higher than the candle total, right? On the C to the left, right? And this is lower than the can to the right and the can to the left, right? So this is a swing point. And above swing points, you have immense amount of liquidity. And the same goes for liquidity below swing points as well. So above swing points, you have a lot of liquidity, and below swing points, you have a lot of liquidity, right?
And now we drop to a DA or one-hour time frame. So right here, you guys can see, right? This is the daily low, and this is the daily high. Currently, there is nothing, right? That we could be using to trade at the moment, right? We're trapped within a range, right? If I put my fibs, you guys can see that we are just below equilibrium right here, right? We need to see some volatility before we do anything, just as how last week we wanted to see price fall below this low right here, right? Which it did. We below this low and then we rallied above these highs, which we were, which is exactly what we were looking for. And the low of the week formed on Tuesday as well, right? Which we expected. So we don't have, you know, clean structure like this to work with right now. We need to see price either dig below this low or push above this high or give us, you know, SMT between this and the Euro dollar.
Currently, I show you guys the Euro dollar beside DXY. You can see that the Euro dollar seems prone to run above this high and this high at the moment, right? And visually, like you guys can see visually, right? I don't really have to, you know, draw anything. You can see that this, the price action here is closer to here, right? Then this is closer to here, right? And if I use my fibs, right? And this is me, you know, it's something that I do, no one else really does this, right? So you guys can see that we are within the higher percentile, right? The higher quadrant of the fib right here, right? Here you guys can see this as well. So here it is. So here, right? We are within the, right? I just call it a quadrant because, you know, one, two, three, four quarters, right? Makes this entire range, right? So we're within the higher quadrant here for EU. And the fibs, you know, they must be drawn at, you know, using the corresponding times of the swing points, right? So this one was formed on Tuesday, this one was formed on Tuesday, this one was formed on Wednesday, and this one was formed on Wednesday, right? So here we have price just within the, you know, the third quadrant. Here we have price within the fourth. So price here is closer to this liquidity pool than this is, right? Which could give us SMT, right? This is showing us that the Euro dollar is underlyingly weak, and there is some strength within the DXY, right? Within the dollar index.
And if you look at GBP USD, right? Compared to EU, we can expect to see SMT, right? Just by looking at this. So here, if we use, you know, Tuesday's high and Wednesday's low of last week, we can see that price is farther from this high than this is from this high, right? Using, you know, the fibs, the way how I just showed you how to, and the way how I showed you how to last night as well. So right now, we are like anticipating SMT. So due to the fact that this high is so close to these highs, you know, we could expect price to rally above. And if this, this one fails to break above this one, then we could expect SMT to probably take out these lows, right? Below these lows, we have sell-side liquidity. Below these lows right here, a lot of sell-side liquidity. Below these lows, and if, you know, we get lucky, we have below this low as well. So if price trades up, we might see price reacting to the rejection block if it gets that high, right? But it totally depends on, you know, where price is within this asset class whenever EU or if EU breaks above this high, you know, it's another story. If it just turns around and breaks below this low first, but I believe that we'll probably get these highs first. And if that happens, and this asset fails to break above this one, I am not bullish.
Right now, we look at the S&P 500. So right now for the S&P 500, right? Still, we have lackluster price action here, right? We'd like to see price either, you know, at least break below this low right here or break above this high. I will definitely be updating you guys, right? I want to see, this is a week like last week where I had to update you guys on Monday again, right? I need to see, I need to see what Monday does, right? I need to see Monday's price action because this is just unclear right now. So I'll definitely be updating you guys throughout the week. But if price, you know, falls and fails to break or fails to break below this low, more particularly, fails to break below this low, then, you know, we could expect something like this. Expect price to just break below this one right here. If it fails to break below this low and there is SMT, you know, between this and NQ, and then we could expect something like this, right? Which would be like range play, right? Playing within the range, right? Now, which this is good, right? This is actually not, you know, a bad thing. But we need to see price break below the equilibrium of this range first, right? So currently, there's nothing. There's nothing to do right now. So we need to watch and see what happens on Monday. And then more than likely Tuesday, no more than likely, my bad, not Tuesday, more than likely Wednesday or Thursday, we'll get something to do, right? So it's either we wait for price to break below this range right here, right? This would dip into the, the fourth quadrant, right? Of the range. And if you're wondering how we do that again, this is how we do it, right? So this would be the first quadrant, the second quadrant, the third quadrant, and the fourth. Right? The fourth quadrant is, you know, more reactive in terms of SMT. We would have NQ totally go below this low, right? Below this low, while this one would barely be dipping into the fourth quadrant while breaking below this low as well. So we need liquidity pools, right? For this to happen, right? So for now, we just have to be, we just have to watch and, you know, see what happens. See which price act, see what type of price action we get Monday, right? If Monday draws closer to this low, then Tuesday we have stagnant price action. Or if Monday just consolidates and then Tuesday we get a drop, then Wednesday or Thursday we get, you know, price wrecking below this SL, then returning into this, you know, above equilibrium.
And for, you know, anyone that's wondering what a rejection block is, a rejection block is, it's the close of a candle, right? It's just the close of a candle before or after price from liquidity, right? So it would be, no, it would be the open right here, and it would be the close right here. So this would be the rejection block right here. That would be a rejection block, which only becomes validated when there is SMT. Moving on, this is best, my favorite thing to look at right now. NQ. I feel better looking at NQ than anything else, right? So we have this low right here, which if it is breached, right? We could see, you know, price return into this range, which, you know, could give us a setup for the low of the week. Or if we see price break above any of these highs, right? And create SMT, then we could see the low of the week, you know, after Wednesday, Thursday, you know, those times. So right now, we are stuck within this range right here, right? This swing high and this swing low, right? Remember, below swing highs, below swing lows, there's an immense amount of liquidity. And above swing highs, there's an immense amount of liquidity as well, right?
And for the, basically the same thing, you know, what we are looking for in yes, right? Yes, and has similar price action at the moment. So we would like to see price break below here for any opportunities to be present in market, right? Below the 50% of this range, right? And we would like to see SMT or price could run above this high, create SMT, and then fall, right? So there's two scenarios that we're looking for, but they're not like random scenarios, right? Either way, we just need to see SMT at the moment, right? Last week, we talked about price falling here, which was due to the fact that there was SMT, right? Which is why we got this drop. Then Tuesday, when we expected the low of the week to form, we had price rally from SMT again, then continue to rally. Reason why price fell is because of SMT. So we're just, you know, we're just trying to capitulate on market reversals, right? So we're just looking and waiting for the market to show us the way it wants to go right now because this is low probability price action at the moment. We are at all-time highs. We have like, remember when I talked about this drop, there was no high time frame Peter here. So it's just time that we're using right now, right? We need price to create SMT, right? Bearish SMT, then create a daily, you know, imbalance or so, so we can, you know, have something clear. But at the moment, we've just been, you know, going up, down, and just playing. So hopefully, you know, this week, Thursday's price action or Wednesday clears up this a bit.
Also, uh, I will be like to starting tomorrow, right? There's like a whole bunch of you. So starting tomorrow, I will be starting to approve, you know, everyone for the group that, you know, joined the waitlist, right? For crypto that paid with crypto. And I will be emailing everyone that paid via W. So you just get a link in your email, right? If you pay through W, you don't have to ask me for for a link, right? And you should have that before we, we come back here on Wednesday, right? And throughout the week, even before Wednesday, you know, I will be, you know, sharing charts. And if I see a setup in the market, I will share it with you. Even though without a news event, it will not be as high probability, but, you know, that's what we do here, you know, we take risks and we manage them, and, you know, that's just how we do it. So yes, I want to see SMT on either the four or or the daily time frame. Right? Sequential SMT, not random SMT. And with that being said, I will speak to you guys later, later in the week, so the latest Wednesday. And we will probably, you know, have a backtesting session again on Saturday. I believe that that one was really productive. There was a lot of, you know, questions answered, and I think it was very good and educational. It helped a lot of people because I got a lot of comments. Anyways, I hope that you guys have a wonderful week and enjoy, you know, the rest of your Sunday. Have are you good night?