Transcription
Today's number is six because that's the percentage of switch from down to back up we've just seen on Tesla during what was post earnings day. And this has often been a massive inflection point for the stock.
So, what's in store for us as traders and investors as we explore the numbers into inflation figures? Yes, guys, we're getting them on a Friday this week. And of course, that's all because of the government shutdown.
With momentum stocks facing a critical position similar to what we saw in August on this channel, we know that things could get very big very quickly. So, what does JP Morgan think is going to happen? And more importantly, what do we see on the charts?
Also, Bitcoin, the anchored VWAP, it's still holding. Will it be 116 first or 98? These levels are going to matter for this having cycle and all of the stats leading into the end of the year. Join us if you like stocks, commodities, and cryptos. We're covering them all right now together.
Well, welcome back everybody to the daily show. My name is Thomas Atinson and it's great to have you here because today we're discussing the latest in the macro, the data, and of course the key money flows. And boy oh boy have there been plenty of opportunities recently. We've just been discussing abundance on the channel and again energy and particular one sector that we've been liking which is oil services had a really good session. Why? Well, it all has to do with flows and the charts and of course we always look for that on this channel. Technical analysis data macro storylines and of course what is Wall Street up to.
Well, let's firstly discuss Wall Street's CPI game day because of course they are coming out here and showing that if the number is hot, then it could be that the market will lose actually quite a lot of percentage. As we know, inflation has become the second most important figure behind jobs numbers for the Federal Reserve and it's expected that the number is going to come in between .3 and 35. But where do we find ourselves in the charts? Right at that resistance. So, of course, this could also push us into what we call positive gamma. And we'll be taking a look at that later on today's video as we always do with the options flows because, as you guys know, Wall Street when they have to start hedging, especially positive gamma, tends to end up causing a decent squeeze.
Now, we do have some new numbers coming in. So, I thought I'd bring up the latest in the sentiment survey results, and they've come in, of course, more bearish than they were just a few weeks ago. And these can often be seen as good signs along with what we're seeing on the charts to mark potential flush outs. Now, of course, over here back only two weeks ago, we talked about the fact that everyone was really complacent and that the bears had gone away. Well, they've come back in the recent weeks, but at the moment, we are pretty much still in a more bearish tinted market. And that kind of points towards generally the wall of worry. So effectively, the markets tend to actually rise into numbers like this.
Now, if you're an investor, does this mean that you ignore all of the information out there right now? Of course, there are so many problems, and a lot of you guys always post in the comments down below, Tom, why are you ignoring this, why are you ignoring that? You know, we have a saying on this channel, which is, if it's in the press, it's in the price. But remember, systemic problems can take longer to appear than any of us suspect, especially when you're considering the similarities between the 2000's .com bubble and the AI bubble that we're in. And yes, I said bubble. I believe we're in one, but just because we believe we're in one doesn't mean that the markets are over yet. Remember margin and debt continued to rise for years in the 2000's bubble really starting to show horror signs more in that 1998 late into 99 scenario which is very similar to where we find ourselves in 2025. So if it's your first time on the channel, you love markets like we do, make sure to sub because 2026 is going to be absolutely insane. I expect some extreme volatility on these markets and if you think there's V right now, I don't think we've seen anything yet.
Now, let's talk about the big story line of the last week. It's always been about silver, gold, and of course debasement of currencies. Remember, if it's in the press, it's in the price and this just again confirms a similar statistic here from Bloomberg showing that everybody was searching it. But whenever we're talking about debasement, we also need to consider whether there are risks on the horizon. Do we see it in the bonds? Do we see it in the lead indicators? Discretionary versus staples, one/ird of the US economy, high beta versus low volatility, something we've been discussing recently. And of course, high yield credit spreads. Well, for now, the bonds market, while still flashing, let's call it a mild amber, hasn't actually gone ballistic, and we haven't actually broken through any key supports. So, that basically means that the markets are still absorbing everything, and they're saying it's all green, all good. Effectively, we're in what we call the Goldilock style scenario.
Now, you may have seen these charts floating around. We've shared them plenty of time, which basically have shown bankruptcy filings going up, especially during 2223. Well, it turns out, at least according to the latest details, the cockroaches have not been found yet because bankruptcies are declining according to uh the latest reads. And while I think these are cherrypicked numbers in some ways, it is kind of important to always note that when you see those types of bankruptcy numbers, remember if you're seeing them, the market already knows about them before you. So, it's probably not that relevant to an instantaneous trade. It's more going to be just an instant fear or, you know, something else. Because remember, it takes longer to crash these markets and it takes a while to actually see markets distribute their way out. If you ever look at a GFC kind of chart before the global financial crisis began, we actually had an incredibly volatile market before everything went bad.
Now, speaking of volatility, we've talked a lot about the back end of October into November and this being a volatile period. Well, according to Renmax, supposedly over the next 24 hours, and again, seasonality hasn't been what it used to be on this channel. We've talked about this for five, six years. Obviously, I've been following it for well over a decade. And I'll say this, I don't think it works as well as it once did because everyone found out about it. But according to Renmack here, supposedly the next 24 hours is generally quite bullish for markets. Will that come true again? Supposedly, it's one of the best days to own the market and buy the dip. Now, I'm not going to say solicit do anything with that, guys, but I thought I'd bring you the data anyway.
As you know, Duality Research did a really good uh piece on what happens when the VIX gets crushed after spiking the way it did off all the tariff concerns. And in pretty much all the situations, we ended up bullish. Uh but of course, the way we got there, sometimes we continued to find a little bit of volatility. We often went sideways. Sound familiar? Yes, we're a few days into this. So, of course, that's what's happening. And we actually usually slowly ground up or even continued in what we call a pit or a pullback in time for quite a period. So, this basically tells us that it's probably a stock pickers market.
Now, why could that be? Well, we know technology tends to do well in November. We also know here courtesy of Carson and Ryan Dietrich over on X that we do have a spike up in the month of November, usually driven by tech. Tech is pretty strong in November. It's one of the best months of the year. And you can see since whether it's the 1950s, past 20 years, past 10 years in particular, it has actually been the best month to own tech. Now, could this year be different? Of course it could. And it may come back to this chart, SPMO versus SPX. So basically here momentum funds versus or momentum stocks versus the S&P. Now if you remember only a few months ago we used what we called the new top 10. And the new top 10 was effectively the strongest stocks that had been driving us since liberation day lows that then broke under and guess what happened? We saw rotation and it all happened in August where we started to lose momentum in these particular stocks. Now they face though a critical point. Are they going to break down and then for start to really lack behind the markets or are they going to find resurgence and strength again? What this is probably telling us is that rotation at least for recently which we've been talking about has been the best course of action and we've seen that because of course what did we see rise over this period. Put in the comments down below. Pause right now if you know but I'm going to tell you of course it was metals and minerals and we saw a huge resurfacing in those. We saw uranium. We've seen obviously uh all sorts of different sectors and areas pick up through that time. Remember, there's more than just tech in the US markets and markets of the world and there's always another opportunity which is super sweet for all of us because guess what? We don't have to chase. Don't worry about chasing. There's no need. All we do is we focus on that next opportunity.
Now, let's take a look at the S&P 500 and figure out whether it's actually weak underneath the hood. So, generally the bell weather advanced decline line. If that's going down and the market's kind of barely going up, that is a really bad signal that has not been occurring here in recent times. So, of course, that along with All-Star charts here, Grant Hawkridge's chart basically shows that at the moment, bellweather stocks are going up. So, of course, this is not a market that looks like it's topping at this point.
Now, from that point, we said stock picking market. Could it be time that Tesla's actually going to go on another run? And I know you might say, Tom, it's, you know, yeah, it's got free cash flow, but they're they're burning their own business. Remember, Elon wants his trillion. And I'm pretty sure he's going to do everything in the wheelhouse to try to get it there. Now, it's not really your opinion, my opinion, or anybody else's that matters. The main thing is going to be flows and gamma because this is an options driven stock. So what we just saw over the last 24 hours was it actually opened up 3 to 4% down and then drove all the way back up to 2% up by the end of the session. Now that actually doesn't happen that often and Blue Curtic here went through and found some interesting points. Often they were inflection points for further rallies. In fact, most of them ended up in further rallies. Here we go. We got 1 2 3 4 5 6. Bad. That's the seventh one. 8 9 and now at these peaking points with a bit of a pit a 10th one. So why is this important? Well, it could mark a pretty large move or at least a sustained couple of week move here for one of the biggest stocks in the world. And do remember it comes back to sentiment. So one of the things that Elon is really good at doing is hype training new product. And we did see over on our X account links in the description that we've got quite a lot of uh new kind of products and interesting ideas coming out next year. So I think this stuff could hype Wall Street and obviously it could be on the move. So maybe Tesla fans are going to be happy uh once again. We'll see whether it can get through some positive levels soon.
Now we've talked about the idea that this year is driven by extreme emotion and 2026 is going to be no different. Extreme emotion, extreme debt, extreme I've got to get ahead. Extreme I've got to break the system. Notice how everybody around you notice how everybody around you now is like, I've got to get out of the system. I've got to get out of the rat race. You know, yeah, that was around 10 years ago, but I would argue that it has never been bigger. Either you're doing it right now or everyone's doing it. You know what I'm saying? So, why we're doing this is we're following these socials. Now, we did actually write an article in our latest newsletter. Links in the description down below. Sign up, guys. It's going to be fire. Absolute fire moving forward. Now, you won't be able to get the one that we just sent out, but make sure to sign up for next week's completely free links in the description for this because I am posting exclusive charts over there that I think will go handinhand with this channel similar to also my free LinkedIn um which I suggest suggest you follow me there, Thomas Atinson, because all of these will help you gain better understanding of markets and how these dynamics work. Remember, there's reasons why gold and silver have done well. There's reasons why the basement, let's say the story line of the dollar might not look like it's working over the next coming weeks. All of these types of things are repeatable processes. Not that you're wrong. It's just all about timing.
So, let's talk about global search interest for gold. You can see here again, it's uh it's spiked up, but I thought this is a pretty cool little map here that uh Blue Curtic made. And of course, you guys know I'm from over here in this uh random part of the world here with dingoes, crocodiles, spiders, flying dragons, all sorts of things down here, guys. Especially over here. You got to be careful down here, guys. Believe me, that's a care. You got to be careful down there if you ever been there. Now, one of the things about this is have a look at the gold bugs. There was I mean I knew here in the place that I live that people were getting a bit crazy on gold, but it actually turned out Australians were the second craziest uh when it comes down to search interest on gold at 94. United Arab Emirates were number one. And um actually in the United States it was nowhere near as fierce. So really interesting chart here showing where all the gold bugs are. But this is the number one gold and this is this is the number two gold. But guess what? We're bigger in terms of land size. So there you go, guys. Maybe not population, but yeah, people were going crazy for gold. And it kind of shows you again why you've got to be thinking about, you know, when these things hit Euphoria like we did just a week ago. Go watch the videos. That the main thing is you've just got to be cautious when these things occur.
Now, a lot of you have mentioned, "Oh, Tom, how much do you think this is going to pull back? You're crazy thinking it could pull back 20, 30%." Not from this price. Obviously, we've already gone down 10. The reason it can do this is it went up so quickly. Often gold will flush. So if it's similar to 2006, 2008, I think it's kind of similar to maybe a 2006 scenario. Sometimes gold can flush. Now when it flushes, just remember it tends to flush relatively quickly. So I think we're going to know the answer to this question fairly soon. But do I think it's done with the bull run? No. I think there's still more to go. So of course that's the power of central banks purchasing. When gold ETFs drop as much as they just did, of course, that puts it in very specific runs, specifically that 2006 run looks very unique and very similar to right now. And we do need to be aware it's happened not just on gold, but silver as well. And this is with the one that's a little bit scary. A few of you guys said, "Well, this stat looks terrifying." Look, I'd agree with you, and obviously that looks vertical and parabolic, and in hindsight, you go, "Wow." But the thing is that silver had to play quick catch up to gold. Kind of like platinum and palladium are actually doing better than you'd think right now considering what gold and silver have done. But I still think that we might buck this trend. This isn't there not that many data points. It's incredibly negative, but I think the real read is going to be somewhere in the next month to two months. So, you know, just make sure that you're always paying attention to the charts more so than even the data. And you're going to marry them up together with logic. And the key is there the logic component. Gold secular bull markets. This is the 2000s market. Obviously, pretty much on time for the kind of sells that we would see um around these periods. And again, you know, sometimes you get these kind of brutal pullbacks. Uh it is not rare to have a 10% pullback for sure. So, you've got to keep that in mind. And it's it's very very common.
Now, why do we think gold's going to keep going up? Central banks are going to continue to buy gold. Gold demand across many countries, India, China, isn't going to go anywhere. It's already very popular. So you can see here it's rising up and we're still not even back to where we were in 2023. So you can only imagine if we got an update on this charts, they're going to be way higher right now. So people are going to trade the debasement trade. I think it's going to continue to be a story line.
Speaking of story line, Bitcoin has its biggest decision yet and we're still stuck in the range. So we don't know exactly how it's going to play, but this is every having cycle and pretty much exactly this time. you're usually coming right near the end of Bitcoin. Of course, most people are now saying it's a woff at the top which is a distribution pattern similar to what we saw back over here and uh it actually caused of course a the decline from that point. Now, do we think that it's in distribution? It's possible, but of course, I think we're going to get more evidence on that very soon. And do remember this is now the most well-known cycle I would say in the world and possibly the most studied cycle in the world. So that often breaks it and I think that's why, you know, yes, I'm showing you these stats, but it is not new. It's not groundbreaking stuff here on the channel like we often bring. It is uh the known thing that everybody knows about. So often when that happens, you might say it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, but as I said yesterday, Wall Street has entered the chat, guys. They're in the DMs right now. They're probably using the bots sending through these things saying bye. You know, it's the greatest idea. And you know what Wall Street like? They like a very good rug pull whenever possible. So to make money is their jam and I'm sure they're going to do whatever it takes to uh to get their pound of flesh.
Now let's have a look here at the S&P. It's coming to a massive inflection point. We're obviously near all-time highs. We're rallying up. We came down with of course that uh drop which held all the main levels and at the moment the trend is still up. So you've got to remember the advanced decline rotation on S&P is good. on the NASDAQ it's a bit weaker and this is where we find ourselves in the future. So it's kind of goes up down two weak rejections which obviously adds more strength down adds more strength. We've seen a lot of darkpool activity in here. It could still be of course accumulation for the next move but this is such an important level. So we'll be watching very closely specifically at these points in time. And let's talk about this 6750. We know this is a inflection point for calls. So, positive gamma here, 6,800 then becoming a massive positive gamma level. And if we get through 6750, 6,800, you're going to see most strikes go towards 7K. So, to get to 7K by the end of the year is even possible if markets start rallying quite heavily.
Speaking of rallies, guess where Tesla ended? Yeah, you guessed it. 450. Why? Because this is the level. 450 to 500. Look at it. 500 struck really well. bazillions of of apes floating in between. And the main thing here is, of course, if it goes through 450, you've got to think 500's on the target. And that's similar to, of course, the previous stats. But it is quite encouraging to see such a strong bid into the close. That generally means that even if it pulls back now, there's a hype train. Elon started the the hype circus. Uh, and that often does get the stock kind of rolling, which is important to note. And remember, this is not a market you ne necessarily have to drive fundamentally. You have to drive it on height and flow and where money is to be made.
Nvidia is still bullish in terms of our aspect in the charts and it is still neutral on those options. So nothing much to note and IBIT continues to hold 60. So Bitcoin holding that very clear support here on the options. When it comes to gold, you guys can see here that gold stocks have been uh hit. Of course, 400 was the obvious target. No updates here in gold options just yet, but we will do that when we come time to uh actually find some nice levels.
Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room. I mentioned yesterday that I thought that oil was probably going to spike up pretty heavily. It did. That's not soothsaying. Again, it is just the reality of the charts and and the oversold market and all those types of things. But more importantly, it just replicates some of the concepts we've been talking about. Now, in our private community, links in the description down below where we talk about the macro, the community watch list. You guys, I tell you, there's big brains in this community, guys. Big brains. You guys have been finding stuff based on some of my courses. The replications have been extreme. So, shout out to uh some of you out there. You know who you are. But one of the things here is uh oil services. So, obviously, I was a big believer in oil services that improved a few weeks ago. We shared it here freely as well on the channel. And um it's done all right. Look at this thing. And this is a hated. This is a hated hated hated hated area and you just got to come from that abundance mindset. I'm not saying it's the greatest thing ever. It's oil services. You know, it's pretty boring stuff, but you know, could go to 300. And while it might not be the best time now to add into it, it just shows you there's always that next opportunity.
Speaking of opportunities, just a few weeks ago, seems like weeks, it really was just a few months ago, we talked about how Google was behind on PE valuation and that was specifically in here. We got kind of this tweezer break and it just went ballistic. It's now really shining. This is I tell you what, Google's got some exciting stuff in the pipeline, guys. It looks pretty sweet. And of course, many people are going to be looking at this as a flag trade. So, will it continue up if the market goes ballistic? It certainly could. Of course, risk is at 235 on that one. And then of course we go the bonds market started to tip up there a little bit when it comes to risk uh in the markets but nothing shooting out the lights and saying wow red red alert red alert at this stage. Consumer discretionary versus staples certainly weakened the most since liberation day but nothing yet to say that it's over. It's just kind of like a bit of weakness and the US dollar continues to grind slightly higher as we've talked about for since over here. And the reason is because too many people are negative on it. It's time to unwind a little bit of that trade.
Now, let's move over to gold. So, gold hit 4K, which still is an excellent dollar cost average style area for a lot of people and position base. We have rallied. Now, a few people have asked me, could we get back to 4250 and then see the market, you know, do this. Yes, I think that's probably more the kind of way I'm looking at it. Obviously, silver has been quite quite weak as well. Dogee sends us to be at equilibrium. So effectively, we're at a new neutral price while it makes its next decision, which I think is important to note. And in general, I think on those metals, they probably had their best gains for now. So I think they're going to chill. And some people are saying it's early in the game. If you're an investor, of course, there's more to go in my opinion, but at the same time, it's just about timing. So you have to, you know, you have to have pretty strong thick skin as an investor to go through some of these periods where it can be a bit boring, like paint drying for a little while.
Speaking of paint not drying, Tesla held that 420 430 zone and it spiked back up. The power of technical analysis, guys. Beautiful. Look at that demand coming back in. And I didn't know it was going to happen, of course. I did not know it was going to rally up like that much, but now that we've seen it, it's certainly enticing, isn't it? It shows you that there's a bit of the market feeling pretty good about the old bid bid this up again. Earnings, who cares? Market rallied off it. That's a good thrust and it shows that there's some demand here. So, of course, there's going to be stop losses here. Now, if it goes underneath, it's going to hunt them, of course. But at this point, yeah, looks pretty rallyific. And if you go to the weekly, it's going to look, look at that. We'll see how it closes. But that is a strong weekly close should it happen. So, we also of course be watching that one on the charts.
Chinese stocks showing again why they've been pretty superior and buying up. You might say these things suck or whatever else or whatever you think. It's just a simple liquidity question. It's like Chinese central bank liquidity in probably going to be profit in the stocks and that's what it's been for the last year. I continue to maintain that for now. Semiconductors, what's going on here? The market is rangebound. So remember when we did this last time, the market broke out back in September. That got us that next kind of momentum bull run. Uh, very nice. We follow semiconductors like a hawk. We watch it. We obviously watch semiconductors versus SPY as well to see whether semis are weakening or not. They're not at this stage. They're just consolidating. So there's no bearishness in that market, guys. And the NASDAQ is just finding the resistance. So the CPI could be a catalyst either way. Uh, again, looks at the moment a lot of people are bearish. So maybe it's a wall of worry style play. If you're an investor, it looks fine on the charts.
We'll jump on back over here to uh Bitcoin for a moment just to have a look at the anchored VWAP. So this has been holding up. It's probably the most solid level. Just underneath that around here, we've got the weekly 50 moving average. I'm going to call it the Scotty Pippen level. And then under underneath this, of course, we have the wipe. Now, I prefer the wipe into the rally. That seems to be gaining a little bit of steam on the internet. The other choice is of course 116 and then rally. And the reason I say wipe into rally or rally is because I'm still not convinced, even though this could be WOFF that it's actually that negative. And I think everything down here matters a lot. So, Wall Street's involved. I expect shenanigans and I'm still watching this chart very closely because I'm excited to see what happens next.
Let's move over to what is going on. We've got daylight savings for plenty of places around the world. So, that will change when these videos come out. They'll actually become earlier for most of you, which is sweet. And uh it will also uh mean that of course for some people you need to check your times for the US market open. But 8:30 New York time we have the CPI release. Remember JP Morgan's expectations are that if it's bad the markets could go down and if it's good the markets will rally. Yeah, no duh. But you can have a look at their their their expectations. I generally find that like all of these things cool to look at but generally speaking it's a bit of a coin flip. So the main thing you're looking at is what is the flow? What is the direction coming in? Are we at resistance? Yes. And you know what that means? That's always the way news is. The news is always at resistance guys just before these key events so that people can that are bearish if it sells say I told you so it was a double top and people that are bullish says I told you so we were going to break it markets mooning let's go to the moon guys and and on the rocket ship so there is a reason why we're at these key levels if you have to guess you're always going with the trend and the trend currently is still bullish.
Thanks so much for watching. If you're interested in finding out more about our courses you can do so by links in the description down below. Sign up for the free weekly newsletter. There's some amazing data and cool memes as well that I'll be sharing in there. So, make sure to link into that pin, comment, description, everything else. Guys, follow me on LinkedIn, follow us on X, and I will see you in the next video. You have a fantastic Friday, and let's kick some ass on the weekend. It's going to be great. Got a special one for you. Bye for now.