Transcription
Folks, the SpaceX road show has officially started and we've got about 8 days to June 12th when SpaceX is going to officially start trading. This IPO is going to be a massive wealth generating opportunity for folks that play it correctly. And so, in today's video, I'm going to do everything I can to prepare you. We're going to be talking about number one, the latest on the SpaceX IPO. Number two, how to play it to your advantage. Number three, the stocks and partners that I believe are set to benefit from it. And then number four, one specific SpaceX adjacent stock that SpaceX actually owns a stake in that trades at about $4. I'm going to talk about whether it looks asymmetrically set to reap the rewards heading into and then after this IPO, I'm going to make the case for the stock. And as always, I'll let you be the judge. As always, if you're the one taking the ultimate risk, you got to be the one doing the ultimate frisk. Always do your own due diligence on all ideas presented.
Okay, let's start. So right now, SpaceX is in what's called a road show period. SpaceX's executives and their bankers are traveling around and pitching the final deal to the biggest investors in the world. The giant funds that manage pensions, retirement money, hedge funds, even entire country's wealth. In a traditional road show, a big fund comes and says, "Look, we want this many shares and this is how much we're willing to pay." And then the banker's looking at all the different orders from all the different firms, and they're like, "Okay, well, how high can we possibly sell at and who gets how many shares?" These road shows allow new companies to actually test the demand for their shares. That way when they IPO you don't have a situation where the stock just goes down 90% upon open and then ultimately what happens is finally you get a price and the IPO comes out at that price and then immediately you get a big pop at open which means pretty much all these bankers get in lower than what retail is paying upon IPO.
Normally a company gives a price range say $120 to $140 and the road show narrows it down to just one final number. Well SpaceX reportedly is skipping that and going at one fixed price $135 a share. Now that's a power move. basically says, "Look, we don't need to test demand. We know it's there. So, here's the prize. Take it or leave it." Now, in terms of this road show, just keep in mind that nothing's official until pricing night on June 11th. This week and into next week, you're going to continue to see more and more press releases, more and more speculation as to how this company should be valued. And then the night of June 11th, they lock in a price. And then June 12th, you start the trading.
Now, one of the key components throughout this road show that you're going to notice are these massive predictions from big investment banks that are also happening to be working on this SpaceX deal. We just got this really, really loud one this morning. Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's AI revenue to surge 100 times by 2030, FT reports. So, if you think about what that means, that would put SpaceX's AI revenue at about $322 billion. What company in the world makes the most AI revenue right now? Nvidia. How much do they make? Around 230 to $300 billion. That's what's probably going to close at for 2026. So Goldman Sachs, according to these reports, is saying that they expect SpaceX by 2030 to surpass what Nvidia is at today. Now, a 100fold increase in any kind of business is quite the bold statement, but a 100x forecast from Goldman Sachs on a segment of their business, which also happens to be one of the biggest growth sectors in the world right now, well, that's the type of thing that analysts are going to use to justify much higher valuations for SpaceX over the coming years. And just for context, I don't want to bore you with all the details again, but if you go back to the different areas of the SpaceX overall business, well, the AI division has been one of the money losers for SpaceX and Bears have been complaining that this is such a massive drag on the company. It's one of the areas that bears have been saying that you have to discount. Well, with Goldman Sachs coming out and saying there's going to be a hundfold increase. Oof. Well, that means that just this one segment of the business alone could be commanding multiple trillions in valuation. It completely changes the paradigm here because instead of being a drag, it's like, okay, wait, actually, this is one of the biggest growth drivers for the company overall. Right now, I'm looking at this and I'm seeing investment banks create a very, very beautiful story for SpaceX to IPO into because while they're packaging it very expensively, they're also packaging so many very serious extreme potential businesses with very large and impressive track records for the most part.
Okay, so let's back up for a second. What's the overall timeline here? So, so as we spoke about earlier, June 4th through June 11th, that's the road show. Bankers are out selling the story with big institutions and financial media. Financial media is going to continue to pump articles everywhere. This is the demand gauging stretch that I described earlier. This is a lot more about creating a story justifying the valuation than it is anything else. June 11th, Thursday, pricing night. So, the final IPO gets locked and shares get allocated to institutions. Reuters reports a planned $135 per share, 555.6 million shares, $75 billion raised, but none of that is official until the pricing notice comes that night. And then June 12th, D-Day, Friday, trading begins. SPCX opens on NASDAQ and NASDAQ Texas. This is the first point any regular brokerage account can buy in the open market. And that's going to be quite the day. And then June 7th to June 9th, that's probably when options are going to go live. Exchanges typically need three to five trading days after an IPO before listing options. So, SPCX options, if you're trying to trade those, should appear around this time. Expect extreme implied volatility off to north of 100% in the first week and very, very wide bid ask spreads because there's just not that much liquidity in the beginning.
Early July, NASDAQ 100 fast entry window. This is a massive catalyst. This is very unusual. NASDAQ's fast entry rules will make SpaceX eligible for NASDAQ 100 inclusion after just 15 trading days, which creates passive fund demand independent evaluation. 15 trading days from June 12th lands around the first week of July. This means forced buying from all NASDAQbased ETF holders. Now, usually what happens is that a company comes onto the market. It IPOs and what happens? Well, it takes many, many months, if not years, for the company to start being added to major indexes. Now, this allows the price to go down and adjust before large scale ETFs start snapping it up like crazy. However, this time around it's only going to have 15 days, which means a lot of these ETFs are going to be buy by buying up the stock and what's likely going to be still pumped prices, which is actually a very very positive catalyst for folks that are buying SpaceX preipo and maybe some people they get SPCX early enough. And then later in the year, you have the first public earnings report. Sources are putting this somewhere in the September to early November window, depending on the reporting calendar. Either way, it's the first time the story gets tested against audited public numbers. I would say this would probably be a bit of a disaster because every time you get that first earnings report, if it's a company that's losing money, well, people are like, "Oh yeah, this company's losing lots of money. Let's punish it a bit." And lock up expiration. So, as we've been talking about, SpaceX actually skipped the standard single 180day cliff in favor of a staggered tiered release, which is going to be unlike anything you've ever seen in the market. So, the first unlock comes after its debut earnings report as a public company, which is again going to be for the April to June quarter end, expected around September. In terms of release, up to 20% of eligible insider shares are going to free up here, plus another 10% if the stock is trading at at least 30% above the offer price by then. From there, five rolling waves of 7% each at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post IPO. and then a further 28% unlocks after the July through September earnings report with the remainder coming off at the 180day mark clustering the back half of the unlocks into the December 2026 window. Critically, Musk and certain significant investors agreed to a 366 day lockup sitting out of this entire dumping schedule.
Now, in terms of price discovery over the very long term, we get to see where SpaceX's price actually ends up after the insiders dump, media circus dries off, regular conditions hit, and some earnings reports come out. And so that leads us to a very specific question which is Charlie, should we buy SpaceX IPO at open? Well, IPO, as you might have heard, actually stands for it's probably overpriced. Companies love to IPO in hot market conditions because they want to get the best bang for their buck. They want to sell their shares as high as they can, and a hot market condition lets that happen. People buying in at the open are often chasing well above these prices. So, you get a massive pop and then all the dumping happens over time and then you end up trading much lower. If you want a long-term value buy, I'd say absolutely not. Do not buy on IPO. If you want a very short-term trade, maybe, but it will move very quickly and you'll likely get a horrible fill and you're probably going to end up blowing up on either one side of the move or the other. If you buy at a horrible fill and then all of a sudden you sell and it's also a horrible fill, well, you just got screwed on both angles.
Now, there are five reasons to expect that SPCX is going to pop very aggressively at open. I don't think that most people are going to be able to catch this or play it correctly, but there's going to be a lot of people that do buy at open and do buy probably over the coming weeks afterwards because there are a lot of intermediate catalysts, which we're going to discuss in a second. So, so five reasons that SPCX should pop hard on day one. Reason one, there aren't enough shares to go around. SpaceX is only selling about 555 million some shares, which is a very, very thin, unusually thin slice of a company this size. And retail is getting a tiny piece of even that. So, you've got a relatively small pile of stock sitting in front, a mountain of demand, and a media circus unlike anything any other stock has ever seen. Way more money wants in than there are shares available. Well, what's going to happen? Price is going to go in one direction. Reason number two, years of pent-up demand is going to hit all at once. Think about it. SpaceX has been the most wanted private company on Earth for a decade. Unless you were a venture capitalist or an early employee or Elon Musk's brother, well, you physically could not own it. June 12th is the first morning in history that anyone with a brokerage app can buy a piece of SpaceX. Reason three, I'd argue the deal here is built to pop. They knew exactly what they were doing. You banks deliberately price IPOs a little bit below where they think the stock is going to land. Why? Well, because a deal that jumps on day one looks like a win, rewards their big clients, and gets headlines. And SpaceX reportedly going out at a single fixed price of $135 instead of letting demand push it higher first, which it almost certainly would, suggests they may have left some money on the table on purpose. That's headroom for the stock to run very aggressively on day one. Reason four, I mean, of course, this is the ultimate story stock. Elon Musk, rockets landing themselves, Starlink beaming internet to the whole planet, Grock and the AI angle, Mars story stocks with a cult following. Cult followings of any kind of stock, even small ones, can create the most massive moves ever. However, there is nobody who has created more of an extreme financial cult and cult following than Elon Musk. And and the more that this stock goes up, the more people are going to pile in. And the more that people pile in, the more the stock's going to go up. The media circus about how much this goes up and how much Elon Musk just made and how much Elon Musk is the first trillionaire and how he just made another trillion and another trillion. All of that type of thing is going to feed into itself. And then reason number five, and quite frankly, you could argue this is going to support prices for a very long time. But reason number five, look, the big forced buyers are coming. And traders know this. Remember the NASDAQ 100 fast entry rule. SpaceX could get added to the index after just 15 trading days, which would be around early July, which then triggers automatic buying from every fund, which is the vast majority of them, that actually track the NASDAQ. A lot of ALGO traders and momentum traders and speculators are going to be buying before the forced buyers buy because they know, look, whatever price SpaceX is at, even if it's too expensive, well, everybody that just buys passive ETFs, they're going to be buying it at whatever price. So, there you have it. Five reasons that SpaceX IPO is likely going to pop pretty aggressively on Open and probably for some days afterwards. Again, do I think it's a great buy for the long term at Open? No. I think it's going to bleed out over the next 6 months after that. However, if you're somebody that is trading, you might be able to make a case for it if you're risk managed. However, it's going to be very difficult to get a good fill, which means if you're submitting a buy order at 150, you're probably not going to be able to get in at 150. It'll probably be like 160 or 175 if you're on a market order, and if you're on a limit order, you're not going to be fulfilled. And then on the flip side, if you're trying to sell or you have a stop-loss or something like that, the stock can move down like this very quickly. So for the vast vast majority of people, I'd say 95% plus, I'd say avoid this IPO like the plague. For people that are very short-term in nature, it can be something to play. But again, even then, I'm a little bit squeamish because it's going to be so hard to get good fills.
Now, that said, if you've been following our SpaceX and space stocks videos over the last couple of months, you know that one of the best ways that we've identified to play the SpaceX IPO actually has nothing to do with buying SpaceX itself, but actually has to do with the repricing of space stocks in the SpaceX basket. Now, actually, one of the most straightforward ways to play the whole basket is with the NASA ETF, Team of Space Innovators ETF. They've got Rocket Lab. They got 6.91% of SpaceX exposure. Although, their stake is getting diluted a little bit because so many people have invested in this fund. It was like 10% plus over a week ago. As as these funds get more and more capital, they have to invest it somewhere. And because so many and because so many people have bought this over the past couple of weeks. Well, the overall SpaceX exposure has gone down. But still, this gives you exposure to basically the whole basket. You have MDA space, ESTS, Space Mobile, Planet Labs, Echoar, Intuitive Machines, Firefly, 5N, Viaat, and such and so forth. So, if you want to play the overall ETF, that is one way to do it. Now, if you want to play individual stocks, that's a whole other game, and we're going to go into that in a second, but I do want to just give you a quick warning on this. Now, if you are a Charlie's Playbook member, which thank you for being a member, but if you are a member, I set this article on May 31st, and essentially it covers when to sell space stocks and specific strategies on that. In this article, I used Virgin Galactic SPC's 2021 era run as a very, very big example. And if you bought at or around the high there, you are now down around 99.78%. Talk about a haircut. Now, why did this happen? Well, it's not just normal hype and dump cycles. It's not just like people taking profits or anything like that. The reason this happened is because the stock was diluted like crazy. Shares outstanding have increased massively, even crazier than depicted when you consider that they did a massive reverse split, which means combining shares. This means that even if the market cap had stayed the same or hell doubled or tripled or tripled, well, each share's value would have still gone down dramatically. Most of these companies can't cover their expenses from revenue alone. So, what do they do? Well, they have to dilute, dilute, dilute. they have to offer and sell endless amounts of shares in order to just cover their expenses. And so what ends up happening to a lot of these stocks is they end up being long-term hot potatoes. Yeah, it can be lucrative if you want some French fries. Longterm, if you get stuck holding the potato, you get burnt. Now, some of the stocks we're going to be talking about are actually very good long-term companies that are going to be priced a little bit too aggressively during the SpaceX IPO. And others are going to be dilutionheavy bag holding stocks long term. And we're going to talk about each of them and break them down separately. But I just wanted to start with the story because a lot of people are going to be hurt at the end of this massive space euphoria cycle and I want to make sure that it's none of you guys.
Okay, let's get to work. Individual stocks. So, Redwire RDW has been one of our most successful ideas. This one I actually believe is one of the best quality long-term stocks in the basket. We called it out on May 5th at about $8.69ish and now it's hovering around $21.72ish. It was at $25.90 at highs which was quite beautiful. Now, the reason that I actually love Redwire and think there's a great case for it long term is because they're riding two big mega trends. They are a space and defense company that builds the actual hardware and infrastructure that goes into space. Things like solar arrays that power satellites, docking mechanisms, and platforms for doing science experiments and manufacturing in orbit. A big part of the business is its labs on the International Space Station where it runs experiments and grows materials in zero gravity. It had 11 active payload facilities on the ISS as of the end of 2025. We don't have the most recent numbers, but I assume it's been a few more because they just did that mission a few months ago. Now, in June 2025, it bought a drone company called Edge Autonomy, which added a whole second business making and selling small military reconnaissance drones, the Stalker and Penguin to the US military and NATO allies. So, this company has two different halves to it. You have the space component, and you have the defense component. Two areas that are having their TAM expand like massively. Now, the stock, of course, is a lot more expensive than when we first called it out. However, I believe that you're going to have more cycle highs hit before the SpaceX IPO and probably in the days afterwards. I think that after that, you're going to see some profit taking. People are going to be like, "Okay, the cycle is over. They're going to take profits. The stock's going to dip back down." Then long-term because of all the new capital flowing into the space TAM and the defense TAM and specifically the drone TAM. You're going to see a lot of long-term upside for this company. That's my view on Redwire. So, in terms of buying now, sure, if you want to play off the potential anticipatory run and post pop run, but if you're just trying to buy for the long term, hey, maybe wait for a take-profit period.
Next, MNTTS. So, we pointed out this guy on Sunday, May 24th, which was the day before Memorial Day. Closed actually that past Friday at $7.38. Today, it's at about $16 plus. Very beautiful run. It was actually much higher at highs. This one, just from the get-go, I got to tell you, this is the more speculative, much more risky, and really harder to justify holding one if you're trying to hold after the SpaceX IPO. They're basically a space tow truck. Momentous designs and builds in space infrastructure, and provides services like orbital transportation, hosted payloads, and inorbit servicing for commercial and government clients. Its main product is a vehicle called Vigoride, which rides up to space on a rocket, usually Space X rockets, and then acts like a shuttle, carrying customer satellites and payloads to their specific orbits. once they're up there. For example, its recent Vigoride 7 mission flew on Space X's Transporter 16, carrying 10 payloads. Beyond just moving around, the company is also pushing into selling its own small satellites and buses for things like missile tracking, communications, and space domain awareness. And it's increasingly stitching itself into the US defense ecosystem with relationships tied to DARPA, the Space Force's space development agency, NASA, and Golden Dome related missile defense programs. Now, I still like MNTS a lot heading into the IPO. I think you could still see that same dynamic that I think with Red Wire is going to happen where you have more highs before the IPO, maybe right after the IPO, and then you see the massive dip. I also see a lot more catalyst for this company heading throughout the summer. Any kind of contract could cause the stock to rally rel. However, a big thing I don't like about this is they do have a big dilution bomb waiting to happen. There's a registration in place right now with the SEC and once it gets approved, they can dump massive amounts of shares on anybody's head at any point. And if my math is correct, it seems like that's not going to be able to happen in any meaningful form until after the SpaceX IPO. So if you're somebody trying to play into the SpaceX IPO, maybe that doesn't matter. But long-term, of course, it does matter a lot. Even if this company goes up 100x in market cap, if they dilute everybody out like crazy, doesn't really matter too much.
Next, let's talk about Sidu. So Sydu is probably one of the biggest hot potato stocks out there right now. But they just completed a massive offering. Last offering was big enough that it cleaned up their balance sheet and gave them tons of cash and longevity. So, this is a small Florida-based space as a service company. Basically, a one-stop shop that designs, builds, launches, and operates small satellites and then sells the data those satellites collect instead of just selling hardware and walking away. The idea is to handle the whole chain, build the satellite, get it into orbit, usually riding up on a SpaceX rocket, run the mission, and turn the raw imagery and sensor readings into useful data and analytics for customers. These customers are a mix of the US government, defense and intelligence agencies, allied nations, and commercial businesses. Now, in terms of potential catalyst, this is what we sent out to playbook members earlier today. So, there's a few different things I'm looking forward to. Russell 2000 index inclusion, that's slated for June 26th. That could be a 10 to 30% plus move. My guess is the company's not going to want to do a heavy dilution before then because it just looks bad when you're about to be included in an index. SpaceX IPO, I think you might have another 5 to 20% over what the stock is already factored in. And then ongoing catalyst like a defense award for the MDA Shield or Golden Dome programs. Q2 earnings after the nice cleaning up of the balance sheet. I think that could be a nice positive catalyst and milestones with their Lizzy Satarvault build. I think these are things to watch in different news and press conference or press releases that could really move the price. Again, this is a high dilution company. It's something that you can expect to be diluted heavily over the years, but right now you have a unique window of opportunity, which is why which is why I wanted to cover it today.
Okay, now it's time for the main entree, which is Filtronic FTCF on the OTC exchanges. So right now I believe this is one of the best deals out there. Make the case for it. Of course again just like the others it is high risk but I think in terms of space stocks this is probably one of the better bangs for your buck right now. It probably has some of the more convincing catalysts and also it happens to be probably one of the least likely to dilute. There's a lot that this company has going for it. So Philronic is a small British company that makes the specialized radio hardware that let satellites move massive amounts of data without the signal breaking down. Think of a satellite beaming internet down to Earth from hundreds of miles up. That signal has to be blasted out strong enough to survive the trip and arrive clean. The part that does that blasting is called a power amplifier. And that's Filtronic specialty. Here's an easy way to picture it. So, if a satellite is trying to shout data down to the ground, Filtronic builds the megaphone. And not just any megaphone, they make the high-end ones that work at extremely high frequencies called Ebands, which is where you can push the most data. They built these using a material called gallium nitride or GN which basically lets you cram more power into a smaller more efficient chip. More power plus more efficiency means what? Faster, higher capacity satellite internet. So Philronic single biggest customer and not by a little is SpaceX. Roughly 83% of Filtronic's revenue comes from SpaceX which uses these amplifiers in Starlink, the giant network of internet satellites Elon Musk is putting into orbit. Every time Starlink wants to add capacity or boost speeds, it needs more of this hardware and better versions of it. Filtronic literally signed its largest ever order, about 47 million pounds. Remember, this is a British company to supply SpaceX's next generation amplifier. But here's the part that really reveals how deep their relationship is. You see, SpaceX is not just their biggest customer. SpaceX also has a stake in them. SpaceX took an ownership stake in Filtronic through what are called warrants, basically the right to buy shares at a set price. SpaceX already controls close to 10% of the company and that can grow towards 15% as Filtronic keeps delivering new technology. So, what's soon to be one of the most valuable companies on the planet owns a piece of its own little supplier. Talk about a great story. That's an enormous vote of confidence and it's why a lot of folks are going to be looking at Filtronic more and more over the coming weeks and over the coming months. A tiny company helping to supply a large company is a textbook opportunity. Big distinction though between Filtronic and Sydu or a lot of the other space stocks is really Filtronic doesn't need to dilute. Filtronic does not need to dilute to survive. It's actually profitable and generates cash. It sits on a net cash position and funds itself from its own operations. So the whole I have to dilute shareholders into the ground in order to survive dynamic is not happening here. Now Filtronic could choose to do that someday if it wants to acquire some other company or it wants to have a big expansion, but it hasn't needed to yet and there's been no survival pressure. Filtronic is already a profitable cash generating business today. What about catalyst for filtronic? Well, I sent this out and these are five catalysts that you need to watch. So, number one, the SpaceX IPO basket repricing. I think that there's another 15 to 40% plus move just with that alone. Um, I think that with earnings, you're looking at 10 to 30% specifically looking at financial year 2027. I think that because of the massive SpaceX IPO and the massive TAM that's being blown open for the space economy, I think that you're going to see really beautiful outlooks there. Customer diversification win, anything with the US or EU defense, that's an ongoing catalyst. Um the 47.3 million pound GAN EBAN order, I think you're going to be hearing about that actually on earnings and that's going to be ramping in financial year 2027, I think that could be another 5 to 20%. and then new nextG GAN product launches throughout 2026 and into 2027. Again, 5 to 15% if you really want to guesstimate based on previous runs.
Anyways, folks, that caps off today's video. Let us know your favorite space stocks down below, how you're playing the SpaceX IPO. If there's anything specific that you like for the long term, we'd love to hear from you. Have a good one. and we'll see you in the next.