Transcription
Hello, I hope you are doing well. Today is October 7, 2025, it is almost 6:30 AM. I am going to do a quick market update, it will be very short, just to, uh, look a little bit at what has happened since yesterday, since my last market review. And, uh, for those who haven't seen it yet, I invite you to watch it because it's still relevant. But what happened yesterday on the dollar and I find it quite interesting and it comes a little bit, it would come, we'll speak in the conditional a little bit, to corroborate what I was talking to you about yesterday, namely a coordinated movement between the dollar which appreciated and the risk-on assets which also appreciated, if not for this divergence that we can observe here on this level. There, between the Dow Jones and its younger siblings Nasdaq and SP500. So, it's interesting on many levels. Already, uh, here, this appreciation of the dollar hides behind it an opening gap. Here, which we see well, it is the result here precisely of a big stress event on the euro-dollar which is probably linked to the announcements of the government, uh, of the French government's issuance. I say probably because in fact, we know nothing at all. It's possible. But in any case, for me, this dollar movement is falling into conspiracy theories and for me, it's a bluff. And if we look at the big picture, that is to say on a daily basis, we are not for the moment, in any case, on something that invalidates this underlying bearish trend that we have here on a daily basis. We see here that the dollar has notably reworked this zone, thus creating a fair value gap, and that we are here on a 4-hour chart on the formation of a high resistance liquidity zone. We see this movement ending with a bearish candle. This is also the case on the futures. So next, in my opinion, is the reworking of this zone. And so for the moment, in any case, I think that the risk-on assets, so the indices, the euro-dollar, and also gold and cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, etc., still have a little bit of fuel to power a rise and that the targets I was talking to you about yesterday, namely a reworking of this inefficiency zone and perhaps even a little lower, still remain relevant for the moment.
So, obviously, well, uh, when you're a trader, you also live a little day by day and you look a little at the evolution of the hypotheses that you have, that you have worked on. So, well, obviously, I am ready to work on this hypothesis again tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and the following days. I always have in sight this movement, so this indicator here on the M2 with a 90-day 97 that would tend to indicate, if I go to the indices, a temporary top, let's say around, around early November. So, it could be a little before, it could be a little after. It's possible that this indicator this time will completely contradict the statistics. But for the moment, well, we see well that it has proven to be rather wise, hasn't it? That's where we are. So for the moment, I am a little in this waiting state. I am not too fooled by this dollar movement here, uh, of these last few days, and I still have, concerning the euro-dollar, a target, a target zone which is the zone around 119. There, maybe a little more. I had also identified this zone here which must start at 119.750, I believe. There, around, around that zone. So there, well, obviously, uh, with what happened on Bitcoin, on certain altcoins, uh, on the indices, we are entering a period of overheating, but this period of overheating can last for a while, in fact. You have to, you have to not fight it currently. I don't think it's a good idea to try to fight it. Don't forget that legendary traders like Michael Burry, for example, they had made a bearish bet, they started to go short on certain assets, but they had to endure a drawdown that lasted several months and they had to sustain this drawdown, otherwise they would have been liquidated. So, what they did by trying to anticipate a market top was, it was risky, it was a bet, uh, well, which succeeded, but trying to time the market in this way is really very, very risky. So, unless you have really substantial capital and only commit a small part of that capital, telling yourself that the rest of the capital will serve to avoid liquidation, it's not something I recommend.
Well, for the moment, as they say, uh, trend is your friend, until it's no longer your friend. And here, for the moment, well, we see well that the trend is our friend. So it doesn't seem prudent to me for the moment to try to fight against it, but to remain alert and to try to look for certain weak signals. I want to say that anyway, the temptation to absolutely capture the market top is an old fantasy that is counterproductive, in fact, because at some point, if the trend reverses, you will see it, and at that moment, you will be able to get on board and go short if that is truly your objective. But a market top, especially in traditional finance, doesn't happen like that in half a day, it takes time and you will have time to observe it.
So, last thing, and it's becoming a little ritual, and I think when I talk about this, many people see me coming, but here's where we are, and today is the full moon. On risk-on assets, so indices, Bitcoin in particular, about 8 times out of 10, it marks a bottom, in any case, an appreciation. After that, there are obviously quite a few counter-examples, but notably with my Telegram community that I created, we have a little ritual, there, which consists of buying a little Bitcoin on full moon days and selling it on new moon days. And by the way, if you don't know how to go about it, or if you're afraid of forgetting, or if you want it to be done automatically, well, I've put a bot online that does it for you. You'll find it on Trador, in the copy trading section, and you see here, it's called Moon, simply. So, it's basic, it's a bot. There's no stop loss, so the capital committed is your risk. Well, after that, it's on Bitcoin against USDC, and the principle of this bot is that it will buy what you told it to buy. So, if you put the minimum capital, it's $200. If you put $200, well, it will buy $200 worth of Bitcoin, and at the time of the new moon, it will sell. It will sell whether it's in profit or loss. Most of the time, it's in profit, it can happen that there are losses. But in any case, that's what it does. It's basic. You put, you put, what you want on it, and then you don't worry about it, and then you'll see that gradually, over the weeks, the months, well, you'll have a little capital that will appreciate. Well, there you go. So, if you don't want to bother with it, because after all, it's simple to do manually, but if you don't want to bother with it, you have this bot that is there, that is available, and you can absolutely put a small part of your capital on it. Apparently, up to now, it has gone well. Well, after all, we don't know the future, obviously, but up to now, we are at about a correlation of around 8/10. So, that is to say, 8 times out of 10, if you had bought Bitcoin on a full moon day and sold it on a new moon day, well, you would have made, not necessarily big gains. Sometimes yes. Like here, for example, you see that here, well, it's interesting. Sometimes it's small gains, like here, for example. Here, I think we were almost at break-even on this zone. Then sometimes it can be much more substantial gains. So, all in all, most of the time, it's a winning operation. There you go. So, do as you wish, it's not, I say it, I repeat it, it's something you can absolutely do manually. You see here the last occurrence, the bot would have bought around, here we are on the Nasdaq, it would have bought around 23730 and sold around 25000, around 24800. Well, there you go, always good to take. Take care of yourselves, and we'll meet again later. We'll see if there's any interesting information to give you, I'll give it to you. Otherwise, we'll meet again, apparently, I think next week.