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THE RUSSELL YIELDS GET A LITTLE RELIEF. OIL GETS SOME RELIEF. AND THE RUSSELL AND THOSE SMALL CAP STOCKS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. SO WE'RE GOING TO WAIT. AND WE ARE GOING TO ANTICIPATE NVIDIA WHICH IS UP ALMOST 10%. JOSH IN ONE MONTH STOCK NOT ALL THE TIME TRADES ALL THAT WELL AFTER EARNINGS. BUT HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT THIS REPORT TODAY?
I THINK IT'S I DON'T THINK IT MAKES MUCH SENSE TO GO AROUND THE HORN AND SAY, HEY, WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING. BECAUSE EVERYBODY EXPECTS IT'S GOING TO BE A GOOD REPORT, BUT HOW ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THIS EVENING AND WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN?
>> WELL, IT'S 80% YEAR OVER YEAR REVENUE GROWTH FROM AN ALL TIME HIGH IN REVENUE. SO THERE'S ACTUALLY NO ANALOG TO ANYTHING LIKE THIS HAVING HAPPENED EVER IN HISTORY. SO LIKE ALL OF THE NORMAL SUPERLATIVES THAT WE USE TO DISCUSS NVIDIA IN QUARTERS PAST OVER THE LAST, I DON'T KNOW, 11 YEARS, I'M IN THE STOCK. LIKE THIS IS PERHAPS THE MOST INCREDIBLY SUPERLATIVE OF ALL OF ALL OF THEM 119% YEAR OVER YEAR EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH. GROSS MARGINS OF 75%. HOW ABOUT THE FACT THEY'RE GOING TO ANNOUNCE 73.2 BILLION IN DATA CENTER REVENUE THREE YEARS AGO, 36 MONTHS AGO, THAT BUSINESS WAS 4 BILLION. SO WE'VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE IT. THE ONE THING I WOULD SAY IS THE MULTIPLE FOR NVIDIA AT 25 TIMES MAY NOT BE BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT FUTURE GROWTH. IT MAY JUST BE THAT IF THIS STOCK WERE TO GET THE SAME MULTIPLE EXPANSION THAT A SMALLER COMPANY WITH A SIMILAR GROWTH RATE WOULD GET, IT WOULD EFFECTIVELY BE LIKE 30% OF THE S&P 500. LIKE THERE'S PEOPLE SAY THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS, BUT THEY MISUSE THE TERM. IT'S NOT WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT MEANS, BUT THERE IS LIKE A LAW GOVERNING HOW BIG A COMPANY COULD POSSIBLY GET. I THINK THE ROAD TO 250 IS EASIER THAN THE ROAD TO 200, COULD I? OBVIOUSLY I COULD BE WRONG. I ALSO THINK PART OF THE THING WITH NVIDIA THAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO REMEMBER IS THIS STOCK DOESN'T NECESSARILY RALLY AFTER EARNINGS, NO MATTER HOW GOOD THEY ARE, BECAUSE IT RALLIES ON ITS CUSTOMERS EARNINGS, WHICH HAPPENED 2 TO 3 WEEKS BEFORE. GOOD POINT. AND SO I DON'T THINK THAT THIS IS A GREAT POST-EARNINGS STOCK TO TRADE. BUT I DO THINK IT'S GOING TO BE AN INCREDIBLE REPORT. AND I CAN'T IMAGINE ANY OF THE SECULAR MEGATRENDS THAT WE TALK ABOUT ON THE SHOW EVERY DAY ARE IN ANY WAY GOING TO BE PUT IN JEOPARDY BY JENSEN'S REMARKS AFTER THE NUMBER.
>> WE WOULD AGREE WITH THAT, RIGHT? I MEAN, YOU GET THE TELL. AS I SAID, I THINK IT WAS YESTERDAY. I CAN'T REMEMBER ANOTHER NAME WHERE THERE'S AS MUCH TO DRAW FROM OTHER EARNINGS REPORTS AS THERE IS WITH THIS ONE. YOU GET THE TWO WEEKS OR THREE WEEKS PRIOR, THREE WEEKS OR SO PRIOR, AND THEN YOU'RE LIKE, OKAY, WELL, WE KNOW NVIDIA IS GOING TO BE GOOD. YES.
>> SO TO THAT POINT, 93%.
>> OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES THAT HAVE REPORTED THIS EARNINGS SEASON HAVE BEATEN ESTIMATES. INTEL, TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, AMD, ALL DOUBLE DIGIT PERFORMANCE POST EARNINGS. SO JOSH POINTS OUT THE FACT THAT OVER THE LAST THREE QUARTERS THE NEXT DAY, EVEN WITH A GOOD EARNINGS REPORT, WE'VE SEEN NVIDIA PRICE ACTION MOVE LOWER. SO I DON'T THINK IT'S SPECIFICALLY ABOUT NVIDIA'S PRICE ACTION. AND NVIDIA HAS DONE ITS JOB SO FAR. YEAR TO DATE IT'S CONTRIBUTED 20% OF THE OVERALL S&P GAIN YEAR TO DATE. IN ADDITION TO THAT IT'S THE SEMI. WE DID THIS ON MONDAY. IT'S THE SEMICONDUCTOR STORY THAT'S REALLY POWERING THE S&P 500 SO FAR. YEAR TO DATE, 78% OF THE PRICE APPRECIATION IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE SEMIS. SO LOOK IT'S THE OPPORTUNITY TO KIND OF PUSH BACK AGAINST, YOU KNOW, YIELDS AND OIL. AND AS IT RELATES TO THAT, WE KNOW THE TRUMP PUT IS ALIVE AND WELL TODAY IN ISOLATION. YOU GET TO HEAR TODAY ABOUT THE AI STORY. AND I THINK WHAT'S MOST IMPORTANT AFTER TODAY IS I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO WALK AWAY TONIGHT AND HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS IS NOT GOING TO END ANY TIME SOON, THAT THE GROWTH STORY RELATED TO AI IS NOT JUST GOING TO BE A 2026 MOMENT, IT'S GOING TO BE 27, 28 AND CAN EXTEND FOR MULTIPLE YEARS.
>> THAT'S THE THAT'S, THAT'S THE STORY, RIGHT? JUDGE SMAILS THAT'S THE STORY TONIGHT THAT WEISS OBVIOUSLY, HOPEFULLY YOU GET THE REFERENCE. IT'S KIND OF OBVIOUS. DOES THE RESULTS TONIGHT REIGNITE IF IT NEEDS RE-IGNITION OF THIS AI TRADE, DOES IT JUST REMIND EVERYBODY AS JOE SAID, THE RUNWAY IS REALLY LONG. THEY'RE NOT GOING TO SURPRISE US TONIGHT. THEY'RE GOING TO CONFIRM US FOR US TONIGHT. IS THAT HOW YOU SEE IT?
>> I DO SEE IT THAT WAY. BUT I THINK WE GET CONFIRMATION FROM JEN-HSUN HUANG ON A ON A WEEKLY BASIS AS HE SPEAKS AT VARIOUS DIFFERENT FORUMS AND INTERVIEWS. SO I DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING NEW. I THINK THAT IN A THEY TYPICALLY AND I SAY TYPICALLY I HAVEN'T LOOKED AT EVERY SINGLE QUARTER, BUT I'D SAY IT'S REASONABLE TO ASSUME OVER THE LAST YEAR, YEAR AND A HALF THAT THEY'VE SOLD OFF IN THE QUARTER DESPITE GREAT QUARTERS AS THE WHISPER NUMBERS ALWAYS EXCEEDED.
>> AND AS THE RUN UP INTO THE PRINT IS WHAT IT IS. RIGHT?
>> CORRECT? CORRECT. ABSOLUTELY. SO IT'S GOING TO DEPEND ON THE MARKET PERSONALITY TOMORROW. IF WE SEE A REVERSAL IN BONDS, UNLESS THEY HAVE AN EXCEPTIONALLY GREAT QUARTER FAR ABOVE THE WHISPER QUARTER, I THINK YOU'LL SEE THE STOCK SELL OFF. SO MY POINT IS THAT TODAY IS NOT CONTROLLED BY THE TECH TAPE. IT'S NOT CONTROLLED BY THE OIL TAPE. IT'S CONTROLLED BY BONDS PARTIALLY BY THE OIL TAPE, BECAUSE APPARENTLY MORE SHIPS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAIT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE WORLD. SO. SO LOOK, I THINK IT'S CORRECT TO SAY THAT THE SPEND IS GOING TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS, MAYBE THREE. THAT'S NOT THE POINT. THE POINT IS, IT'S TOO EARLY TO MAKE A CALL. WHEN IS THE PEAK AND WHEN DO WE SEE CUT BACK AND CAP SPENDING THAT'S GOING TO IMPACT? RIGHT NOW IT REALLY IS PARTY ON, PARTY ON. I SAID YESTERDAY THAT SOME ARE PULLING IT FORWARD AT THE END OF THE CYCLE OR DECLINE IN THE CYCLE. I STILL THINK THAT DEBATE IS GOING TO GO ON. TODAY IS A BOUNCE BACK DAY. YEAH.
>> YOU YOU'VE HAD YOU'VE HAD A PARTY PAUSE. YOU HAVEN'T HAD A PARTY END TO TO WEISS'S POINT. YOU JUST NEEDED TO JUST GET YIELDS OFF THE BURNER FOR A MINUTE. AND THEY FEEL LIKE THEY ARE, AT LEAST FOR A DAY. AND THE MARKET CAN GET ITS ARMS AROUND THAT. THE PRESIDENT'S POST ON, ON, ON TRUTH EARLIER ABOUT, YOU KNOW, CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WAR, ETC. YOU KNOW, WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT. BUT THIS, THIS ISN'T THE END OF THE PARTY. IT JUST NEEDED A LITTLE BIT OF A BREATHER. WE NEEDED TO DRINK SOME WATER. WE WERE, WE WERE, WE WERE, WE WERE CRUSHING SOME, SOME DRINKS.
>> I MEAN, YES, YOU KNOW HOW I FEEL ABOUT WATER. I WANT TO DRAW A DISTINCTION, THOUGH, BECAUSE THE THREE OF US WERE ON THE SHOW YESTERDAY. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT MICRON. WE ALL REMEMBER THAT. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE MULTIPLE THERE, WHICH WE SAID AT A HIGH SINGLE DIGIT LEVEL WAS MAYBE EVEN EXPENSIVE. SO HOW CAN ALL OF US, ALL FOUR OF US JUSTIFY NVIDIA AT A MID TO HIGH 20S MULTIPLE? AND THERE'S TWO REASONS WHY IT DESERVES THAT MULTIPLE AND MAYBE EVEN HIGHER. ONE IS THE ECOSYSTEM WITHIN THE ARCHITECTURE THAT NVIDIA HAS CREATED. SO THIS IS THE VARIOUS CHIPS THAT GO TOGETHER, VERA AND RUBIN. AND IT'S THE UNDERLYING SOFTWARE SYSTEM OF CUDA THAT IS A DISTINCTIVE ECOSYSTEM THAT IS A MOAT TO THE BUSINESS. IT'S A MOAT TO COMPETITION FOR NVIDIA THAT MERITS A HIGHER MULTIPLE. THE OTHER THING IS, QUITE FRANKLY, THE MULTIPLE INVESTMENTS THAT NVIDIA HAS MADE IN THE OVERALL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ECOSYSTEM, WHETHER IT'S OPENAI OR ANTHROPIC, AND THOSE ARE THINGS WE'VE SEEN IN THIS FIRST QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON. WE'VE SEEN MASSIVE EARNINGS BEATS FROM THE LIKES OF ALPHABET AND AMAZON ON THE BACK OF THOSE INVESTMENTS THAT THEY'VE MADE AND WHICH WE SHOULD SEE AGAIN FROM NVIDIA TODAY. SO LET'S NOT LET'S NOT DRAW COMPARISON. AND I'M CERTAINLY NOT I'M DRAWING THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN SOMETHING THAT IS MORE COMMODITIZED LIKE MICRON AND SOMETHING THAT'S MORE SPECIALIZED LIKE NVIDIA.
>> WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE REALLY HELPFUL TO GO TO OLIVER RENICK TODAY AT THE SEABOARD IN CHICAGO FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT ANY OPTIONS ACTIVITY THAT HE MIGHT BE SEEING AHEAD OF THE THE PRINT, WE'RE EXPECTING AROUND A 6% SWING BASED ON IMPLIED VOLATILITY, BUT NONETHELESS, I'M CURIOUS. IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOU, AS ALWAYS, WHAT YOU MIGHT BE SEEING IN TERMS OF SPECIFIC TRADES, WHERE THE OPTIONS ACTION IS TELLING A STORY ABOUT WHAT SENTIMENT SEEMS TO BE.
>> THAT'S RIGHT. SCOTT, OBVIOUSLY, AS YOU GUYS HAVE TALKED ABOUT HERE, JUST AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON THIS COMPANY. BUT IN THE PAST, OPTIONS TRADERS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT OVER THEIR SKIS. 14 OF THE PAST 20 QUARTERS. NVIDIA HAS MOVED LESS THAN THE OPTIONS PRICING. AND AS YOU GUYS MENTIONED, ALSO SOME GENERAL WEAK PERFORMANCE AFTER EARNINGS. THE STOCK HAS DROPPED FIVE OUT OF THE PAST SEVEN. AND AS YOU MENTIONED TODAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY POINTS TO UNDER A 6% MOVE WHICH IS A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THOSE MUTED SWINGS OF THE PAST. SO PERHAPS SOME PROGRESS BEING MADE THERE. BUT THE INTERESTING QUIRK IN TODAY'S SETUP IS THAT TRADERS ARE PAYING NOTABLY MORE FOR CALLS THAN PUTS. IT'S A PRICING SKEW THAT'S BEEN INCREASING WHILE NVIDIA HAS MADE NEW HIGHS. THAT WAS BEFORE TRADERS GOT BURNED IN THE TWO DAY DIP AROUND FRIDAY EXPIRY. BUT SAFE TO SAY, BASED ON WHAT WE'RE SEEING SO FAR, THEY HAVE RELOADED AND A DEEP SELL OFF HERE WOULD BE PARTICULARLY PAINFUL GIVEN HOW MUCH FOLKS ARE PAYING FOR THOSE CALLS. YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A TRADE, SCOTT. THERE'S A BIG ONE HERE FOR THE BULLS TODAY. THE BIGGEST TRADE IN NVIDIA WAS A CLEAN CUT CALL SPREAD FOR ABOUT $8 MILLION. SOMEONE BOUGHT 3000 OF THE 235 STRIKES EXPIRING FRIDAY, AND THEY SOLD THE 255 AGAINST IT. SO THAT'S LOOKING FOR ABOUT A 6% POP FROM