Transcription
Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we will be doing the reverse of last week's video, which now that I've wrapped up my initial rankings for 2026 fantasy football, we looked at guys that I'm a lot higher on the consensus. We looked at the market ADP and guys I just have ranked a lot higher than where they're going in drafts. Now, we will be doing the flip it and reverse it of guys that I'm much lower on than where they're currently going in drafts. It's a handful of guys, a lot of running backs on this list. So, without further ado, let us get to the first player.
And this one hurts a little bit because if you followed me at all last year, if you followed my videos throughout the summer, you very, very likely ended up with a lot of Devon Achan on your team. This year, we will likely end up with very, very little Devon Han cuz he's the first player up on this list. Right now, he was going off the board as the RB7. He's like a first round pick in fantasy drafts. And that kind of blew my mind when I first saw the ADP because it feels like a year late from where you wanted to get him. Last year he was, you know, going in the end of the second round, early third, and it felt like he could return a first round investment for you. This year it's like the reverse where if you end up investing a first round pick on him, he probably feels like he's going to give you back mid, late, second, early, third round value based almost entirely on the situation that Miami finds themselves in right now. He's so good and I think he's completely underrated as an inside the tackles runner. However, when it comes to guys his size, when it comes to like very unique players in the NFL, there are like a very particular few set of coaches that know how to get out the goodness of those unique players, right? You have Kyle Shanahan with Debo Samuel. I don't think Debo Samuel would have had the career he had had it not been for playing Kyle Shanahan system and him being able to utilize him the correct way. I think I'm looking at it the same way with Devon Achan in a Mike McDaniel offense. When I look at their offseason moves, you know how people say like this is addition by subtraction. I think this is like subtraction by addition when it comes to Miami. They get rid of Mike McDaniel. Their new head coach, Jeff Hafley, was the Green Bay defensive coordinator, which I got no problem with. But they bring in Bobby Slowick to be their offensive coordinator. Hate that if we remember his time in Houston. Like did not like the run game there. Just shoving guys up the middle on first and second down. Their receiver room is just they got a nothing burger going on there. No more Tyreek Hill Kill, no more Jaylen Wadd. They have a bunch of young like later round rookies that they're going to end up relying on here. They bring in Malik Willis, so it will be a very run-heavy offense that will have like so little success. Their win total is set at 4 and a half. They've made some improvements on the offensive line and some investments obviously their first round pick, but they're still slated to be a bottom five offensive line heading into the season. And I just don't want to attach myself to this type of offense. I just don't want to look up on Sundays and be like, "Fuck, Miami doesn't have the ball again. Miami doesn't have the ball again. Miami doesn't have the ball again." When they do, how long is it for? Do they use HN on the goal line? Like that? That's one of my biggest issues here is like when HN is in that situation where they could get easy touchdowns, which is going to be few and far between in this Miami offense, which again, four and a half wins. Uh, do they sub Ali Gordon in there? I I could see a year where Devon Achan finishes with like five or six touchdowns. Is he still going to catch like 50 60 passes? Probably. But I also think that's another part of this equation here where Malik Willis as a mobile quarterback is going to check down way less times than a Tua Tagaloa would, right? Like Tua was a a check down and a dump off artist the last couple of years. That was Mike McDaniel's offense. They like ran the passing game through Achan and they gave him the extension. I'm sure he's still going to be a big part of this offense, but I think we're going to see his touchdown numbers plummet. I think we're going to see the number of overall targets because Malik Willis will take off and run a lot of those times. I just don't think there is anywhere near the upside that he had last year and now you're paying the upside price for what feels like a year late on Han. So love the player still could not be more off this first round of ADP though.
Number two, we are sticking within the AFC East here and you know I had an incredibly scorching hot thesis last summer. Every video I feel like I talked about it where I was just like I'm not touching any New York Jets player. People were like, "Justin Fields is a top six quarterback in fantasy." Felt like that was abysmal. People loved Bree Hall. People loved Garrett Wilson. I was like, "Listen, I'm I'm just do whatever you want. I'm just not touching a New York Jets offensive player because I've just watched them so often. This is one I didn't have to overthink. They had Aaron Glenn coming in. They didn't have a quarterback. They don't have a lot of upside on that offense. It just felt like a disaster of a situation. And yet, people still drafted Bree Hall in the third round. And they're doing it again this year." Now, I don't necessarily have a problem with Breeze Hall as like a fantasy player this year. This is way more based on the price right now. His ADP is 30th overall. So, you're talking about early to mid third round pick. The RB14 off the board, which is like borderline an RB1 for your team. I currently have him ranked 41st overall as my RB18. I think the obvious upgrades to the Jets are they get Gino Smith at quarterback. Now, Gino played horrendously last year in Las Vegas. I would say a lot of that has to do with the offensive line though, just being under pressure. I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of what we saw last year and what we saw in his Seattle days. So, I think he'll be fine. I think he'll give them a little bit more of a floor than any of the Jets quarterbacks gave them last year. And they do bring in some more weapons, right? Kenyan Sadi, Omar Cooper, all those kind of guys. So, hopefully the offense moves a little bit more smoothly. I just don't see the situation being that different from last year for Bree Hall in particular. Like a lot of the reasons I didn't want to invest heavily into Bree Hall was I didn't think the offense was going to score a lot of touchdowns. Their win total is very low again this year. Bree Hall's rushing touchdown line this year is again five and a half. I think it was four and a half or five and a half last year as well. It's just not a team that's projected to score a lot of points. And I think people forget as well going into last year. We were worried about a little bit of a committee there with Brayon Allen taking short down and goal line work. And we were worried about Isaiah Davis, you know, kind of ciphering in some pass catching work and playing on like third down and very very obvious passing down situations. And then we literally saw that play out until Brilen Allen got hurt. and Brilon Allen's going to be healthy this year going in. So, the way I'm looking at it is like, of course, Bree is the workhorse. Of course, they're going to try to get him that Bellcow status. They gave him the extension. I think a lot of the offense is going to run through him. However, I I don't think the third round ADP is warranted given we we pretty much saw this same situation play out last year for this offense where it was like Bree getting a lot of touches, but getting a decent amount of empty touches when they're down on the goal line, which won't be that often. They gave a lot of that work to Brilan Allen and I think that's going to be the case going into this year as well. So for me when it comes to Bree, when it comes to the Jets offense, when it comes to Aaron Glenn still being there, I know they brought in Shane Stiken, but that's not something I'm overly optimistic about here. I I'm I'm not going to be taking Bree Hall in the third round this year. I I can just tell you that if he starts to float more towards where my ranking of him is, which is 11 spots lower than ADP, I'm at 41 and he's at 30 overall. I get it. I'm I'm fine taking him because I do think at the end of the day, he'll probably average 18 touches a game. He's a very, very good pass catching back, but I just get concerned with the overall offensive structure here. I get concerned with the touchdown upside for a guy like him.
Moving on to player number three, we've got Kairen Williams of the Rams. Now, his ADP is one spot below Bree Hall, 31st overall RB15. And ironically, I have him one spot below Bree Hall in my rankings, 42nd overall RB19. So, the thing with Kyron Williams, he's an incredibly high floor player. I still believe like I don't think you're going to regret having him on your team. I just think this price that you're paying for him is a little bit risky given like the very obvious material change that we saw in the Rams offense last year. And it was Kairen and Blake Cororm straight up were just splitting drives. It was Kiran for a full drive, Blake Cororm for a full drive, Kairen for a full drive, Blake Cororm for a full drive. And yes, when it came down to crunch time or if it was moments where like Shawn McVey really needed to trust a running back, it's going to be Kron Williams. He did get the extension. and I still think he's that guy, but I'm not looking to spend the 305 on a dude who's going to be off the field on every other drive. And we saw that very, very clearly. It It's not very different than what we saw in Chicago last year where it's DeAndre Swift and then Kyle Manungai. DeAndre Swift and Kyle Manungai. And it doesn't mean none of these guys can be good fantasy players. Like again, I think Kron Williams still probably has a floor of 1100 total yards, will flirt with 8 to 10 touchdowns, which is good, but that doesn't present you the upside that you're looking for in the third round of drafts. Like you're drafting a guy like Kairen Williams ahead of Devontto Smith, ahead of like Josh Jacobs this year, depending on how the legal situation plays out. I'm not trying to wrap my head around a dude who we just saw how the season played out. And again, high floor offense, high floor player. But when we look at what changed carries per game 2023 for Kron 19 2024 19.8 last year that dipped down to 15.2 and he's a he's a running back that does not catch a lot of passes. He's averaged two catches per game over the course of his career. So we saw a dip in rushing which came as the obvious, you know, answer to Blake Corm getting a lot more carries here. I think they're they're pretty similar players. I think you have to give the advantage to Kairen Williams just because what he's proven at the NFL level at this point. But in terms of of like talent level, I don't think Kron Williams is like a needle mover relative to Blake Corm. I think he's a good player. I think he can do it all when asked to. When they get down to the goal line, they love to use the tight ends. They love to use Devonte Adams. They love to use Puka Nakua. And if it's a drive where Blake Corm just happened to be in, he's going to be the one that takes a touchdown there. I think that's going to be extremely frustrating. So again, not that I'm like a full fade on Kron Williams, but if you're telling me Kron Williams goes at 30 overall and DeAndre Swift goes at 55 overall, to me, they have extremely similar outlooks about what you're going to get on Sundays.
Moving down the list, running back for another AFC East running back, and that is second-year Patriot back Tvon Henderson. Currently a top 50 pick, 49th overall. So you're talking about the four five turn running back 21, which is pretty much exactly where he got drafted last year. I have him down at 67 overall, running back 26. I feel like I'm right on the dot here. I feel like this is exactly where people should be drafting him. After watching what we saw last year, I don't understand how people have this huge bull upside case for him given last year one of the reasons that I was a little bit hesitant cuz by the end of the summer he was like a third round pick. He was at the 34 turn and I get it, he's got a lot of upside. He was an explosive player. We thought he was just going to blow past RA Andre Stevenson. But one of the cases I kept making was that Josh McDaniel, their OC, had always historically used a running back by committee. Had always always, it's like a 20-year example window that we basically have for this. And anytime he didn't use it, which was a very very small sample size of just a few years of the years that he was either a head coach or an OC, it had been because he had a back that was like 225 plus pounds. The OA Morenos of the world where Trayvon Henderson is not that guy. And then we saw that play out. It was completely an RBBC there with Trayvon and Randre Stevenson and Trayvon had these very very high upside games because Raandre was out. If we're being realistic here, there are a ton of running backs that can have massive fantasy days when given a Bellcap role. That like encapsulates the entire argument of the positional value of running back. Like when Josh Jacobs is out, Emanuel Wilson has massive upside days. That's kind of everywhere around the league. If you give any of these like top tier athlete running backs 20 plus touches in a game, they're probably gonna have really good games. That's not the question that you need to be asking yourself as a as a fantasy owner or as a fantasy drafter. It's whether or not they will. Will they get those touches? And in this offense, no. So with Trayvon, he struggled a lot in the pass blocking role. Raandre is much much bigger and much better at that. As a downto-own runner, I don't think anyone can argue that Arandre was not better than Trayvon Henderson. Does he add a level of explosiveness to this offense that's different than Roandre? Of course. But that's the thing. like that's what this tandem is going to bring to you. So, it's hard to see a huge upside case with Trayvon. Is he really going to get 10 plus carries per game this year? Is he going to get 12 plus carries per game this year? And if not, what kind of upside do we really see for this guy? On top of that, you add in some real like target earners in AJ Brown, of course, and Romeo Dobs this year. So, I think targets are going to be a little bit more spread out through the offense. And I also think when you look at the schedule, last year they obviously had the fourth place schedule and now going to the Super Bowl, they have a much tougher schedule. When you look at the overall strength of schedule, the middle of it kind of nice, but the ends of it, the sandwiches of it. And the fantasy playoffs, great to have the New York Jets there in week 16, but the Chiefs are tough in week 15. The Denver is obviously extremely tough in week 17. So, just looking ahead, the playoff schedule is not super favorable for these running backs in either direction. So, Trayvon Henderson, not for me at his current price tag. He will not be an end of the fourth, early fifth round pick for myself. And even at that, like sixth or seventh round feels, it feels right. it feels less risky, which is what you need to be doing when you're drafting a guy that feels risky. Like, we don't even know if Trayvon Henderson is that good of an NFL running back. He was great in college. He's very explosive. He had some cool plays. He had some cool games, but there are a lot of running backs in the NFL that can do that on small sample sizes. So, I think the biggest picture is we just have this massive sample size of Josh McDaniel using a committee, and he just did that again. And Roandre was legitimately good for them in that committee.
Moving to the next player, and I don't think we could have a list here on this channel that was talking about guys that I do not want you to draft, that I will not be drafting, that I would not even wish upon my worst enemy to draft, and that is Kyle Pittz, the tight end of my Atlanta Falcons. Currently, the tight end seven right now in ADP. Listen, I've got him as tight end 10. And even that I don't love. People need to understand, you just need to understand that Kyle Pittz is a [ __ ] nothingburger when Drake London is on the field. It was nearly a 10-point fantasy difference in games when Kyle Pittz played that Drake London did not play compared to when Drake London did play. He's genuinely just not very good. I watched these Falcons games and he'll make a few good plays each year and people will like gawk at his athletic upside, but if you genuinely watch him play, he's way more of just like a catch and fall guy than you realize. Way more often than not, he's actually not making plays with the ball in his hand, and he needs to be forcefed targets when other guys are not on the field in order for him to see that upside come to fruition. Among 49 qualified tight ends last year, his 4.5 yards after catch per reception ranked 35th. And I think that's what you get typically when you give Kyle Pitts a high volume of targets. So, the quarterback situation is questionable at best there. If Drake London stays on the field, Kyle Pittz is giving you borderline tight end one numbers. For him to be going anywhere even near the the second-year players of Tyler Warren, Harold Fannon above Sam Leaporta, like could never ever ever ever ever be me.
And then lastly, we're actually going to just talk about the quarterback position as a whole because if you look at my overall rankings, which are available on the website right now, bdgeg.co, co I am significantly lower than almost every quarterback not named Josh Allen when it comes to their ranking within like overall one quarterback rankings. I'm just much lower than consensus on a lot of these guys because I think the quarterback position down to like QB 15 is so so so deep. Like right now Brock Pertie is the quarterback 12. Matthew Stafford is a quarterback 13. Momes is the quarterback 14. Bo Nick's 15. Jared Goff 16. I mean Jordan Love is down at quarterback 20. I just don't really see a world where I'm drafting Caleb Williams with my like sixth or seventh round pick when I can get Brock Pury or Matthew Stafford 50 picks later. I still have to get a little bit more clear on my take on Lamar Jackson on whether or not I want to put him closer to Josh Allen here or further down towards like the Jaden Daniels and Drake Mays of the world, but I just don't see a point per game difference from a lot of these guys to where the quarterback 12, 13, 14 is, right? And I think with Lamar, you can make the case that it's going to be a brand new offense. No more Todd Monkin. So there could be a decline in just overall passing efficiency for something that they've had so much continuity for. But I also don't want to overthink Lamar Jackson. Jayen Daniels showed himself to be extremely, you know, injury-prone at this point. He gets hurt a lot. They don't have great weapons there. Drake May is going to have a much tougher schedule this year. Jaylen Herz doesn't have AJ Brown anymore. like you can make the case for a lot of these guys having a little bit more risk-reward than in typical years where Josh Allen's just been the QB1 across the board for like five straight years at this point. His upside is crazy, his floor is crazy. So yeah, I I think like a a tier 2 will eventually kind of emerge from this group, but right now I don't see a world where I'm taking any of these guys 40 50 spots higher than some of the guys that are further down below. So, that was less of a player and more of an overall trend here where I just feel like the quarterback position, if you can get a Jordan Love at quarterback 20 where I expect Green Bay to pass the ball more, I expect them to be a little bit more condensed in the offense. I expect Jordan Love to to kind of let it rip this year a bit. These are the guys I'll probably be taking more shots on.
So, there you have it. Those are five, six, 19 guys that I am lower on than general consensus right now. And as we pick up the pace of these videos, doing more per week, make sure you are subscribed to the channel and always hit the button that looks like this down below. All right, put the D in the subscribe button. Let me know what kind of content you'd like to see for the remainder of the summer. And like I said, all of our rankings and our draft guide and everything is now available on the bdge.co website in the fantasy membership. Everything is encapsulated in one membership this year. No separate products. It's all there for you, nicely, neatly packaged. I love y'all and I will see y'all later this week.