Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful weekend. And I hope that so far you have been patient and doing nothing, as I suggested, right?
So, as you guys can see, so far the price action this week has been, you know, very, you know, like, luster, slow, choppy, dead. Why is this? Why was this? This is due to the fact that, you know, this week we have CPI. And this is something, you know, important whenever we have CPI during the week, right? And they, and there are no news events on Monday, right? Whenever we have CPI past Tuesday, then Monday will, you know, tend to be more choppy. You know, most times when I'm here talking about, you know, the economic calendar, this is actually where most of the, you know, important things that you need to implement are, right? There are also, you know, ways, and I saw someone send me a message talking about, you know, SMT between news events and stuff like that, which you're around to something. And, you know, but we're not here to talk about that yet, right? Whereas, of course, you can compare the news events whenever you have Euro and USD news being released at the same time to see, you know, you can just compare and compare the volume and see which one is greater than which one, etc., etc.
Anyways, so today we had no news, which is why we had little to no movement. Tomorrow we have news at 10:00 a.m. It will be, you know, a tradable day. We will see some type of movements, right? During New York, of course, New York session, you already know what we look for, right? We need to see crack and correlations before we do anything at all, right? On Wednesday, we have news at 10 a.m., right? And Thursday is when we have CPI. So this is the weird part of this week. This is the rare part, right? Of this week, right? So it's the second week of the month, right? Which is when we usually get, you know, most of the volatility for the month. Usually tipping point of the month, right? The first week is usual, I guess, and then we get the second week. CPI changes everything. So we have CPI further down in the week, right? Usually it's Tuesday or Wednesday, but due to the fact that we have two Fed, two, you know, Fed chair testimonies, public talking twice in a row, right? Tuesday and Wednesday, right? Which is why I'm guessing that they pushed it down to Thursday. So Thursday, you know, in my opinion, is already 75% I'm guessing will be the higher L week for most asset classes, right? Thursday already, just by looking at this, right?
Friday, we will get some movement. Whatever happens during the week and realize, realize this, that this is usually why Fridays are pretty, you know, easy, right? To trade. And if you realize most of the news is when the New York session, right? Q3 of the day. And this is why the New York session is the best session. The New York session has the most volatility. The New York session will give you the highest probability trades, right? So Friday, whatever happens during the week, which for asset class that you're looking at, expect the range to be returned to. So if we have CPI, you know, spike and then drop the index future, then Friday should, you know, just return back, give a small bounce or a bounce, return back into the range.
Now, we'll look at the Forex [Music] Tri. So firstly, at the one of the charts, right? Those red B, the red box and the green box, what do they indicate? They indicate the quarters of the year, right? So here now, looking at the Great British Pound, this high right here, which is a significant high, it's a very important high, right? I will talk about why it's important very soon. This is the high of the last quarter, right? Of the previous quarter of the year. So the second quarter of the year, this high is the high of that quarter, right? And that's not the only reason why it's significant, right? The other reason why this high is significant is because this is the high, right? Which caused price to break down. This is the high which triggered, you know, the sequential SMT, which caused this reversal, right? This high right here, right? Translated over to the Euro Dollar would be this high right here, right? And this high is significant as well, right? So usually, right, whenever we have sequential SMT, which is something to look out for here, right? We could see price I, you know, push above this high and, you know, fall back within the range. Maybe return to this fair value gap right here, right? This one would be, you know, the quick food, you know, for the algorithm. But, you know, this one here, and, you know, we could be going below this low as well. But we would need to see, you know, some, you know, immense volatility above this high. Then we would, you know, like to see this high being left and, you know, this had to be taken. And all of this idea stems from the US Dollar, right? Due to the fact that, you know, we have these untouched highs here, bidity equal highs, then here we have relatively equal highs as well, right? And here we have symmetrical. And this is something, you know, to take note of. Say symmetrical consolidations. So there are times when you have consolidation occurring at the same time across, you know, the Triad that you're looking at. And there are other times when it doesn't happen. Whenever, right, we see this happen, as we see consolidation here, and right, we're talking about this real time, right? We see consolidation here, consolidation here, and then we have consolidation here as well, right? So this consolidation took place at the same time, right? Across all pairs. We could, we could see the high of this consolidation taken out, the low of this consolidation taken out, and the low of this one taken out, right? If we have one of them being taken out and the other left in place, that would be a crack and correlation, right? But ultimately, currently, right, there is, right? This is basically what we live for, right? Choppy price action, on clear price action. And why is that? Because unclear price action breeds clear price action, right? Once we get price, right, crack in correlation, and we see it reverse, right? Which is, you know, break below this low, leave a gap, then we go to the lower time frames and look for entries, right? Here, right? You can see that there is basically no level right here for the US Dollar to, you know, react to. So the thing that would make this, you know, the US Dollar actually bounce is sequential SMT. Already we have hidden sequential SMT right here, as this close right here is above this one, whereas this one is below this one, and this one is above this one, right? So already there is strength in the market for the US Dollar, right? But here for the Euro, right? It's pretty much, you know, unclear. If we scrub out a little bit, you'll see that for the entirety of the previous quarter of the year, right? We have just been range bound. We've just been chopping around here, chopping around as well, right? It's just been choppy price action. And when we are looking for market structure, the assets that we look at in pertaining to the FXT, which is the Forex Triad, is the US Dollar and the Euro, right? Due to the fact that they're come like they're literally mirrors, right? They literally mirror each other. And whenever they crack price versus, so that's what I, you know, think for this asset class right now. Currently, nothing to do, nothing, you know, no buttons to press. We need to see market structure. We need to see a crack and correlation. We need to see SMT fill. We need to see the precision swing point. And so far, right, we don't have, you know, that anything that's strong enough to, you know, get me to to press a button, right? There is, and this is due to the fact that, you know, we have, you know, these global issues, you know, spooling up. Um, the elections are getting closer, which, you know, is something that's very important. Is that do now? It's hard, right? For if you look at, you know, Twitter, we, we, we, we usually see people just, you know, posting setups, posting setups. You don't see that anymore. You don't see people calling markets anymore. You don't see that, you know, influx of, you know, retail data that's usually there. And it's, it's due to the fact that there's nothing to really do, right? Right now, the real traders are being tested. Your patients, your patience is being tested. Your skills are being tested. Your risk management is being tested, right? So if you like, it's hard. It was hard to wait for this, right? Now, even for price to be at this point, right? Now, for price to, you know, be setting up for sequential SMT, right? Some people, they lose their minds. It's very important to, you know, build that skill. What, what is that? Patience. Which is why, you know, whenever we don't have news events on one day, I love skipping it, right? Why? Because, you know, it gives you guys, you know, it tests you guys. It stretches your, your patience, right? You're exercising your patience. You're getting more patient. You're learn how to wait more. So whenever we exit this type of market condition, which we will, right? And whenever we do, it will be insane, right? It will be crazy. It like it will, it will feel as if, you know, you got, you know, you've been walking around with, you know, 100 L PB in each feet and you, you're running 10 flat on the 100 meter. How much do you think you're going to run now? You're R like 7.5, bro. Could be insane, right? Conditions will be clear. And all we need for that to happen is what? For the dollar index to break out of this range. Whenever the dollar index is range bound, and this is something to take note of, right? And it's better to look at this on the monthly time frame. So on the monthly time frame, and this is me showing teaching you how to like gauge market conditions for, right? The index futures markets, which we'll look at right now. So whenever we have the US Dollar Index range bound on the monthly time frame, the index futures tri, right? Is you usually just keeps going up, right? So for, it's just, it'll just be going up, going up, going up, going up, going up. Whenever we have range bound price action for the US Dollar. And once it breaks, the US Dollar breaks out, then, you know, the index futures tri begins to move in the opposite direction in terms of, you know, a higher time frame trend. That's, you know, something important which we will be coming deeper into.
So last week, right? This is the move that we anticipated, right? And, you know, it's pretty good. Even though it's still low probability, don't get me wrong, right? It's not the best time to be trading due to the fact that we have, first of all, we have the Dow just doing nothing over here. If you're trading the Dow, you have a strong stomach. Cause like I cannot do this, right? Currently, you know, I have to be trading, as I've said before, like twice a week, using the 50 minute time frame, right? Sometimes a 5 minute, but nothing below that. Due to the fact that we're at all-time highs, I need to see, right? A two-stage tracking correlation at least to like just get me to think about doing something. Which is here, which we saw, right? We had the C and correlation, right? Between the monthly cycle. Then we had a quick and correlation between the weekly cycle. And this sets, set the stage for, you know, bullish price action, right? And before, right, you know, this even happened, we expected it to happen, right? Then price pushed up here, right? We still expected, you know, price to go higher, which it has. So what does that mean, right? Okay, we already expected this. We already bought this. Whoever did, if you did, congrats. If you didn't, next time you should, right? Take profit here. You should be taking profit here. If you haven't take to profit here already, you see whenever, you know, we're in this trend, an uptrend, we, we need to see this type of price action, which is what usually happens. Is we have choppy price action, right? Price falls below the low, right? Into discount. We have a two-stage cracking correlation, and then we have higher prices. Prices blowing at all-time highs again. So we'll see this type of pattern just keep presenting itself, right? Until the US Dollar just breaks out of this range, because it's just range bound. Whenever the US Dollar is range bound, right? And the money is not flowing into that market, where does it go? It goes here. This is where it goes. So all of that liquidity is being pushed into the index futures triad. Today, there isn't, you know, much to talk about in terms of technical analysis, but yeah, that's it, right? Cent. Right now, we have to just be patient, right? And this is one of the best lessons that you can get, right? Be patient. Backtest. We could trading plan. Which concepts, you know, sit with you the best? Which ones do you like more? Which ones do you see happening more? Which ones can you predict? Which ones have you predicted more? What do you like the most? You don't need everything. You definitely don't need everything. You can just have one sequence, one sequential SMT followed by precision swing point, then what do you have after that? An SMT fill, and you're good. You can just be using two asset classes, compare them to one another for extreme accuracy. Of course, you need to be, you need to be comparing the index futures to the FX triad, of course. And then, you know, you need intermarket sequential SMT. But that's for extreme precision. That's for the people that, you know, don't want to just, don't want to lose more than 20% of their trades. But you don't need that type of accuracy. You do not need that type of accuracy. You literally don't need that, right? But what are you? You're afraid to lose. And you shouldn't be afraid to lose, cuz you will lose. So you should embrace losing, prepare to lose, expect to lose. And when you lose, just don't lose your ass. Don't lose more than you should. Don't lose more than you can manage, because that's a part of the game. Sometimes I'm trading and, you know, to get warmed up, I take a loss on purpose, maybe just like 0.5%. You know, just, just to feel that sting, right? To let me know that this is real, because it is. It's not a game. You shouldn't be going in just because they said to expect, you know, price to, you know, right here, whereas, you know, someone showed me that they risked too much, which is why I'm talking about this right now. You know, don't do that, cuz what if I was wrong? I am sometimes, not a lot, but I am sometimes. I was wrong, you'd be, you know, cursing me, right? But I am the one that preaches that you should use risk management. Doesn't matter if you made, you know, $20,000 in that trade and then you're happy. You shouldn't be happy. It's business. Treat it as such.
I hope that you found this insightful. It'll be back here Wednesday at 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. M blar concepts. Have a wonderful day and back test. Be patient. The markets will be fixed soon. [Music] All you want to me is a b obsession. I am theing t on burning the stream. Many times can I ask you how many days can I go without you? [Music] ch [Music] [Music] [Music] the distance is I [Music] can the of position [Music] can I go without without you? [Music] n [Music]