Transcription
Welcome to week nine, matchups that matter, where we go through everything that you guys need to set your fantasy football lineups. Get yourself right for the halfway point of the NFL season, the stretch run of the fantasy playoffs. We have a lot of games to cover. Four teams on buy this week. That means no Jets, no Bucks, no Eagles, and no Browns. Couple of fantasy relevant quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers that you will be without here. So, let's get into it.
The slate breakdown here is that we got seven 1 pm games, three 4 pm games, a Sunday night, and a Monday night game. Pretty bone stock. We already saw the Thursday night game with the Ravens absolutely stomping the Miami Dolphins and getting their GM fired. Let's get into the first 1 p.m. game.
Here we have the Chicago Bears taking on the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. The Bears are favored by three points. We still are awaiting word on Joe Flacco status. He's dealing with what sounds like an AC joint sprain. Is he going to play through that? Is it going to be Jake Browning again? That is the major storyline of this game. This game does have a 51 and a half point overunder. Right now, it looks like Vegas expects Joe Flacco to play. Otherwise, that point total would probably not be so high. The over is catching a little bit of the steam. The pace of play is the second highest on the entire slate. And Chicago's DVOA as an offense, despite not being the most consistent offense in the world, is the fifth best of any matchup on the week nine slate here.
Moving into who we want to start here. Caleb Williams, a great streaming quarterback, especially for those of you guys that have Jaylen Herz on by. That is me and my home league. I picked up Caleb Williams from one of my league mates for a couple of fab dollars. And of course, if you have Baker Mayfield on buy or somebody else, he is a great option. DeAndre Swift versus the Cincinnati run defense. Yet another easy matchup for DeAndre Swift who has been on a tear lately. Chase Brown against the Chicago run defense. All also a very easy matchup. Both of those guys are top 20 running backs for me this week. Romo Dunce is expected to see shadow coverage from DJ Turner. So keep in mind that this could upgrade the other Bears receivers like DJ Moore who is a flexible option in this game environment given the 51 and a half point overunder. Jamar Chase and T. Higgins definitely starters for you. If Joe Flacco is not able to go that of course is going to downgrade Jamar Chase to more of a mid wide receiver one play and T. Higgins to more of a wide receiver three or a high-end wide receiver three. But if Joe Flacco is out there we got a top five receiver in Jamar and a top 24 receiver in T. Higgins given the way that Flacco has played. Stream the Chicago defense if you guys do want to assuming that Joe Flacco is out. You could do it. If Joe Flacco is playing, I would not stream the Chicago defense. And if you guys are looking for a tight end this week because you have Harold Fannon on by or you have Dallas Goddard or Kate Uton or one of those guys on by. I do think that Coloulston Lovelin is a viable stream this week. Uh Cole KT who was out for last game did see um Coulson Lovelin take an uptick in routes and uptick in snaps. He might be back for this game. He has limited participation in practice right now. But I do think Coulson Lovelin still a half decent start at tight end no matter what. The stat of the game for this one, the Bengals are first in offensive interior rushing attempts. So in between the tackles, they rush between the guards and the centers the most in the NFL right now. And the Bears defense is allowing the most yards per carry up the middle at 5.44 yards per carry to opposing running backs on interior runs. Chase Brown averages 7.9 yards per carry his last two games. We could see yet another big rushing day for Chase Brown on the ground given that matchup that we have.
Moving into the next game, we have a NFC North matchup. The Detroit Lions hosting the Minnesota Vikings. This is the game in which JJ McCarthy will be back since week two. He has not played with an ankle injury. We saw him play in back-to-back prime time games. Not look so great outside of that one quarter in the first week of the season. The Detroit Lions are favored by 8 and a half. They are implied for 28 and a half points. The overunder is pretty high in this game at 48 1.5 points. Detroit's DVOA advantage is a top four rate on the slate. The biggest disadvantage on the slate goes to the Minnesota Vikings against a very good Lions defense. Playing at a very, very high level at home, especially Detroit has been very tough. You think about the last team to play against Detroit at home. It was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who were a much better offense than Minnesota and they looked out of sorts in that game environment. Um, for that reason, you're going to be starting all your Detroit Lions. It's a great game environment. They're implied for 28 and a half points. Jared Goff a great streamer. Jir Gibbs, David Montgomery, both starting running backs for you. Aman Ross St. Brown, even Jameson Williams, who has been bad so far this year, but it sounds like a squeaky wheel gets the grease game. We're hearing offensive coordinator John Morton come out and say he needs to get him more involved. He needs to play a little bit better. I would expect that this will be one of Jameson Williams best games of the year in terms of overall targets. So, make sure if you guys do need a wide receiver flex option, he is out there for you. Uh Sam Laaporta definitely a really good streaming tight end this week or a top tight end this week. Uh Justin Jefferson is expected to see shadow coverage from Amique Robertson. If you guys recall in last year's games against the Detroit Lions, Amique Robertson did a pretty good job on Justin Jefferson, so it looks like they trust him in that role. Aaron Jones, the flex option for you. It looks like of the two running backs, he is the one that you want to have, especially in this game environment where they're nearly over a touchdown underdog. And Aaron Jones is the pass catcher of the two of him and Jordan Mason. So, he'll probably be the one that I would want to put out there, although I don't think you need to put either of them out there if you have better options. And then Jordan Addison, probably the best matchup on the field of any of the Minnesota Vikings. If you needed to, you could stream TJ Hawinson, but I just don't think you would have to do that unless you have a by-week at the tight end position because TJ Hawinson averaging like seven fantasy points a game. If you need a defense, Detroit's a good one. And the kicker Jake Bates is a good one for Detroit as well.
Stat of the game is this one could be ugly for JJ McCarthy. The Vikings are bottom eight in pressure rate and they've allowed the second most sacks in the NFL. The Lions are third in pass rush win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win win rate as a defense and top 10 in sack rate and pressure rate. I would be worried about starting a lot of Minnesota Vikings in this game. I wouldn't mess with um you know starting multiple like for example Danny has Jordan and Justin Jefferson in the flock league. I am personally worried about that matchup for him because I do not think that JJ McCarthy will have a great outing coming off of this injury on the road in a hostile environment against one of the best defense and teams in the NFC here.
So Carolina taking on the Green Bay Packers. surprising 13 and a half point underdog despite being a 500 football team and notoriously Jordan Love and the Packers have played down to their competition. You think of losing to the Cleveland Browns a couple of weeks ago as a good example of that. The Packers being 13 and 12 point favorites is definitely surprising, but maybe Vegas knows something that we don't. 28.75 implied points. Overunders is pretty low at 44. The over is catching some of the steam here. Pace of play is top five on the slate. Green Bay's DVOA as an offense versus Carolina's defense as a top nine matchup on the slate. Green Bay players, you're going to be starting Jordan Love, you're going to be starting Josh Jacobs, and you're going to be starting Tucker Craft. Those guys are all pretty much every week starters. Specifically in this matchup, Jordan Love is Romeo Dobs, probably the best of the Packers receivers to throw out there because we did see with Christian Watson back last week that ate into Matthew Golden snapshare. And of course, we know that they have some ancillary receivers that are involved as well. Jaden Reed was working off to the side in practice on Wednesday. So, we when Jaden Reed got injured in week two against the Commanders, he suffered a collar bone injury and he was also dealing with a foot injury as well. It does sound like I would say over the next month or so, we're going to get some word of him um you know, potentially coming back, practice window being opened up, whatever the case is. If he's working off to the side in practice right now, I would imagine he's maybe a month, couple weeks away from having his practice window reopened. So, if he is available in your league and you have an open bench spot or you have an open IR spot, especially, definitely throw Jane Reed to the end of that because he might be back for the stretch run of the fantasy playoffs at the very latest.
And then at the running back position for Carolina, the puzzle has been Choua Hubard versus Rico Dattle. It sounds like Chuba Huard was outnapping Rico Dattle having come back from the injury because the team has a lot of respect for him. He has the big contract. But Dave Canales after the game last week said that Rico Dattle is pretty much going to be the starter going forward or at least going to get a crack at the starting job going forward if he continues to play as well as he has. So if of the two running backs, if you have both of them, I would play Rico Dattle and this is the first time I've said that all season because I was pro Chubah the last two weeks and he did out snap and you know out touch for the most part Rico Dattle but he has not outplayed Rico D. So D should have more touches this week. Don't start Bryce Young. Don't worry about any other Panthers players other than Tedo McMillan who does have a really good matchup in this one. Uh Green Bay's first in EPA per drop back as an offense. It's surprising, but they are. The Panthers are the second best offensive success rate allowed as a defense. I think the Panthers keep this close. They have a pretty good defense, especially against the pass, playing very well, and also they've been decent at opposing running games as well. And Josh Jacobs has been hot and cold at times. um you know generally gets a lot of touchdowns and stuff but he has not always played as um you know an efficient rushing option. So this game I don't think 13 and a half is going to be the point spread. I do think that Carolina keeps this in a close game and I think they will cover that if you guys are betting this game.
Next up we have the most boring game environment I would say for fantasy of the next uh slate here. We have the Houston Texans taking on the Denver Broncos. Texans one and a half point favorites. The lowest overunder of the slate at 39 a half. the overcatching a little bit of the steam and the pace is not terrible. But overall, I just don't love this game environment. These are two really good defenses. Two offenses that have struggled against good defenses. Bon Knicks has the worst matchup of any quarterback this week. JK Dobbins not a very easy matchup against the Texans run defense, although it is the better way to attack this defense is by running the ball as opposed to throwing the ball. Woody Marks um is seeing a little bit of an uptick in usage. So, he's definitely a flex option in this one. Derek Stingley versus Courtland Sutton. Stingley's been up and down, so I don't really have that many concerns for Courtland Sutton this week, but he is supposed to see shadow coverage against one of the highest paid corners in the NFL. And then Nico Collins would have seen shadow coverage from Patrick Certan. Unfortunately, he is out for this game and out for the next couple of games. So, uh, Nico Collins coming off that concussion, he did clear the protocol on Thursday. He should be ready to go. Maybe your last chance to buy low on him. And then Evan Ingram, uh, Troy Franklin. If you guys need some deeper options, I think there's better game environments to target than this one. I think you can throw Troy Franklin out there given the the game that he just had, but it's not a great matchup for him. In fact, it's the worst matchup he could possibly have. And then same goes for Evan Ingram. I think there's better streaming tight ends out there than you can go after. And same with like Christian Kirk could be back for this game. Jaylen Null's been good on a per route basis. Jaden Higgins had a touchdown last week. If you don't have to start another Texans wide receiver other than Nico Collins, I probably wouldn't. And that applies to Daltton Schultz as well. Stream both defenses though because this game should be low scoring and should have some opportunities for turnovers and both defenses are playing at a high level.
Stat of the game here is that the Texans are first in pass EPA per play and total offensive EPA per play allowed as a defense against fantasy relevant quarterbacks. These are the scoring outputs they put up. 9.6 fantasy points against Sam Darnold before the buy. 8.8 for Trevor Lawrence. 13.6 in week one against Matthew Stafford. other than Baker Mayfield who had 19 fantasy points. They have been clamps against the fantasy quarterback position. So, I would not expect fireworks for Bo Knicks. In fact, I would sit him for a lot of streaming quarterbacks, including a couple of guys that are probably on waiverss for you like Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, maybe not Trevor Lawrence, but around that territory is where I have Bick's ranked this week.
So, moving into the next game, we have the Patriots taking on the Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons are 5 and a half point road underdogs here. It looks like we should get Drake London back. We should get Michael Pennock Jr. back, but the Patriots have been kind of a wagon as of late, winning a bunch of games and beating up on inferior teams. And the Falcons definitely profile as an inferior team here. Overunder slated at 45 points. The under catching some steam. Pretty slow pace of play in this one. One of the lowest on the entire slate. And both offenses are about league average matchups according to the opposing defense here. You're probably going to want to fire up some Patriots. Drake Mayandre Stevenson right now as I'm recording this had not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday. Now, a lot of people, I'm sure most people want Trevian Henderson to get the starting job. It sounds like Raandre Stevenson could be dealing with an injury that would result in the Patriots making a move at the deadline for a running back instead of just using their second round pick. We'll see what happens. I'm not sure if Reandre is going to play in this game. If he doesn't, then that would upgrade Trevian Henderson probably to a top 15 or a 20 running back, I'd have to imagine. and it could put the Patriots in the market for a running back on the open uh trade market before the deadline next week. Stefon Diggs probably going to be in your lineup given how he's played. I do think if you need a tight end option, Hunter Henry is not a bad one given that the Patriots are implied for over 25 points in this one. This is going to be a difficult matchup for Bejon Robinson because Bejon is typically one that you know does well on zone rushing attempts and the Patriots are really good zone rushing defense. So, this is going to be a difficult on the ground matchup for Bejon, but maybe he gets there through the passing game. We saw like in week one against the Bucks for example, he had like a 100 yards receiving even though he didn't have a good game on the ground. Hopefully we see Zack Robinson and Michael Penn and those guys use him out of the backfield because that is probably going to be their ticket to win this game is throwing against this defense. And if Drake London is back out there against the New England secondary, that is a good matchup for him. Kyle Pittz coming off of a nine-target game. He's had at least four receptions in every single one of his last uh six games except for one. So this is a dude that's been heavily involved as well. You could definitely throw Kyle Pitts out there. If you do need a defense, I think that New England's defense is a decent one because you got a little bit of a jackal and hide Falcons offense here that could lay a stinker as we've seen.
And the stat of the game here, this matchup is kind of strength on strength because the Falcons defense is really good against the pass. Top five in explosive pass rate allowed um completion percentage over expected, top 12 in pass EPA as a defense as well, but they're bottom 10 against the run. But the Patriots might not have their starting running back and we don't really know exactly the status of Trevian Henderson as a runner because we haven't seen him a whole lot. The Patriots are 31st in rushing EPA as an offense. They can't really run the ball, but they're second in passing EPA. So, this doesn't really bode well for the Patriots as a passing offense because this is a really good passing defense that you want to run the ball against, but they might might not have their starting running back. So, this will be an interesting matchup to see how it plays out.
The next game that we have here is the 49ers against the Giants. I don't want to jinx anything, but Christian McAffrey does go up against the Metife turf. Um, so hopefully he's able to stay healthy for everybody's sake. 48 and a half points is the overunder. The uh 49ers are two and a half point road favorites in this one. Pace of play is a top four uh paced game in this game. Uh and they also the 49ers have a top eight matchup according to the Giants DBOA as a defense. It does not look like we are going to get Ricky Pierce all back or Brock Pury back in this game. Jawan Jennings is probably going to play. It looks like Kendrick Bourne is going to be back out there. George KD of course getting more and more involved as the weeks go along. And of course, Christian McCaffrey doing his thing. But over the next two to three weeks, we should get Brock Pury back. We should get Ricky Pierce all back. And I would imagine by that point, Brandon Aayuk will have his 21-day practice window opened as well. So, the 49ers are getting reinforcements. They've been able to tread water. They've been able to win some games here and there. Um, but yeah, you're starting the usual cast of characters. CMC going to be in your lineup. George KD going to be in your lineup. Uh Jawan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne are flex options, but I hopefully you wouldn't have to play them. Jawan Jennings the better option of the two. Tyrone Tracy now the starting running back in New York going up against the 49ers defense. They're about league average against the run, but they have been getting worse as of late given the Fred Warner injury. And uh Cam Scatteraboo now out for the season. Tyrone Tracy going to take over that workload. Jackson Dart a decent streaming option at quarterback. Wandell Robinson a playable flex as well. 49ers defense is definitely in play, but keep in mind they are on the road in this game and they have lost a lot of pieces and their kicker also in play as well.
The stat of the game for this one is CMC finally has a great rushing matchup. The 49ers are dead last with 1.9% of their runs going for an explosive run. So over 10 plus yards. The Giants are 32nd across the board in explosive run rate the aforementioned and rush EPA per play allowed and success rate allowed. So, this is a game environment in which Christian McCaffrey pretty much needs to run the ball more effective effectively than he has other than that Falcons game on Sunday Night Football. The 49ers have not been able to run the ball at all. So, George KD being back, Christian McCaffrey having a nice matchup that should bode well for him on the ground.
Indianapolis Colts going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers. One of the better games this week for sure. The Colts are three-point road favorites. 50 and a half points is the overunder. The over catching a large amount of the steam as well. 17% of the sharp money on the over in this one. Indianapolis has the best DVOA advantage of their offense versus the opposing defense of any team in football this week. Daniel Jones going to be in your lineup. Jonathan Taylor, of course, going to be in your lineup. Michael Pitman going to be in your lineup. Tyler Warren going to be in your lineup. I do think if you need a flex option, Josh DS is not a bad one. Even Alec Pierce, not a bad one. On the Steelers side of things, you probably know who you're starting. Jaylen Warren's getting the workload, you got to start him. DK Mechaf getting the targets, you probably got to start him. Aaron Rogers if you do need a quarterback because you don't have Baker Mayfield, you don't have Jaylen Herz this week. Aaron Rogers one of the better streaming options given the game environment, the fact that he's at home in this game. Um the other thing that I might point out is keep an eye on Pat Fry with his status because he was injured in last Sunday night game. Um but he is back at practice. If he is limited or maybe even out for this game, then John Smith becomes one of the best streaming tight ends of the week. As of right now, I would imagine that Pat Fry plays so I don't have him listed as a good streamer here. But if he if Pat Ry is limited or out for this game, then definitely pick up John Smith if you need a tight end with Harold Fannon and Goddard and all those guys on by. Um both kickers are definitely top five plays this week. You think about Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts. How does this not result in a lot of kicking fantasy points for Michael Basley, the Colts kicker, and Chris Boswell, the the kicker of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Especially when you think about the fact that both of these teams are some of the best bend don't break defenses in the league. meaning they allow a lot of yards and a lot of first downs, but not a lot of touchdowns in the red zone. That results in a lot of points for the kickers.
The stat of the game is that everybody's going to focus on Jonathan Taylor and what he's doing. He's probably the MVP of the league, at least one of the top three candidates in the league right now. But the Steelers are the second heaviest zone rushing team in football with a top five success rate against zone rushing defenses. The Colts are bottom five in success rate allowed against zone runs. So, this is a matchup that builds very well for Jaylen Warren. We talked about him as a potential trade target on Wednesday's video. Could have a nice performance in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers taking on the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers are 9 and a half point favorites on the road against the Titans here who are kind of a floating trash bag operation with Mike McCoy operating the team over catching 20% of the steam which is second highest on the slate. The pace of play is about average and the Chargers DVOA as an offense is a nice advantage for them. Uh the Chargers, I mean, you're starting all of your players here because this is just such an easy matchup, especially when you factor in that the Titans defense is missing some pieces. Legarius Sneed on IR. I don't know if we have word on Jeffrey Simmons, but he was out for last week's game. And they just traded Roger McCreary, who's their slot quarterback, who of course would be covering Lad McConi had he still been on the roster. So Justin Herbert going to be in your lineup. Kamani Vidal, given his workload, going to be in your lineup. I believe Hassan Haskins is back at practice. So that'll factor in if he does end up playing to Kamani Vidal's workload, but still very good option for you. Lad Mani is going to be a starting receiver. Keenan Allen and Quinton Johnson both viable flex options. On the Titan side of things, I don't think you have to start any of the receivers given this matchup. I do think given the running back injuries and the running back landscape in general, you probably would have to flex maybe Tony Pard, maybe Taj Spears. given game environment, nine and a half point underdogs. Taj Spears could end up being the better play, but Tony Pard probably because the Titans are at home would be my preference of the two of them. Um, Elio Manor, Shamira DK, uh, it looks like Calvin really could be out for this game yet again, still not practicing with that hamstring injury. I don't think you should start those guys unless you are absolutely desperate. Aronda Gadson going to be in your lineup given how he's performed at the tight end position for the Chargers. And then one of the best defenses on the league is the on the week, sorry, is the Chargers defense going up against the Titans. and of course Cameron Dick are going to be in your lineup.
Stat of the game for this one, Kamani Vidal likely to continue his reign of terror because the Titans are second in yards before contact allowed to opposing running backs and offensive lines with offensive tackles Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins back last Thursday against the Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers had their best run blocking grade as an offensive line in over a month. So that is what the difference was for why Kamani Vidal looked so great last week as opposed to the week before that when they played the Colts is that the Chargers got their offensive tackles back and they were able to block a lot better.
Moving into the 4pm window, we have the New Orleans Saints taking on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are 14point home favorites in this one. The pace of play the highest on the slate. Overunder set at just 43 and a half. This will be Tyler Shuck. Um, not Spencer Rattler for the New Orleans Saints. Notoriously, if you guys followed us in the Dynasty offseason, we were not big fans of Tyler Shuck. I do think that Spencer Rattler is the better quarterback. Hence why he's been starting the last couple of weeks and won the starting job in camp. So, even though Tyler Shuck was a second round pick, I do not think this is a quarterback upgrade. In fact, I think a couple weeks time, Spencer Rattler will get back on the field as the starting quarterback. And I think that Chris Ave and Shahed and Chimera and stuff will suffer the brunt of this decision, but you do have to see what you have in Tyler Shuck if you're New Orleans. Um, so I don't think this will go well, especially on the road against a really good defense. The Rams have a very, very easy DVO advantage over the Saints defense. Stafford, Kairen, Puka, who's back this week, Devonte Adams, all in your lineup. Absolutely smash plays for all of them. Alvin Chimera, uh, Chris Ave definitely must starts I would say given where they are currently ranked among running backs and wide receivers respectively, but Rasheed Shahi definitely not a must start given the fact that Tyler Shuck is starting, but he is a big play waiting to happen. Maybe he gets loose for a deep one. Jawan Johnson, if you are desperate at tight end and you have some by-weeks, you could throw him out there, but I probably wouldn't want to. The Rams defense and kicker both very, very good options in this game environment.
Stat of the game for this one is that Pukanakua is back. And in Puka's games this year, the first month of the season, he scored no less than 24.1 PPR points. He gets a match up against Alante Taylor who is allowing a 111.8 passer rating when targeted and gives up the seventh most receptions of any quarterback in the NFL. And of course, in receptions per game, especially when healthy, you remove that injured game for Pukakua. He led the position by far and away in receptions per game. So, I do expect a coming out party for the best wide receiver in fantasy football, Puka Nakua. Probably a 10 plus catch game for him in this one.
Moving in to the Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the Las Vegas Raiders. Two pumpkins in the 4pm window, and you'll see why in a second because we do have a banger of a game at the 425 kickoff slate. Jaguars are three-point road favorites in this one. Not a very good game environment. Overcatching a little bit of the steam, but it is only a 44 and a half point total. Only the must starts are the ones that you want to throw out there. Travis ETN probably a must start at running back. Ashton Genty probably a must start at running back. Brian Thomas Jr. definitely a must start at wide receiver. Now that Travis Hunter is no longer going to be active for this game. Travis Hunter placed on IR suffered an injury I believe at the end of Wednesday's practice. A knee injury. He was placed on IR, meaning he will be out for the next four games. You will not have him back until at least week 14, I guess, or week 13 is when he's first eligible to come off of that. Could you pick up Deami Brown or Parker Washington knowing that Hunter is not going to be out there and he was going to be the first read target and all the stuff that they talked about? Definitely possible. Uh Trey Tucker and Jacobe Myers, assuming they're active, have pretty good matchups. So you could definitely throw them out there. And we get the return of Brock Bowers in this game. And he could remind people why he was in fact a one-two turn pick at the tight end position. So, if you guys are down bad at the tight end position, you're looking for a great option, you could definitely send out some offers for Brock Bowers right now, and he could definitely lead you to the promised land. Uh, Jacksonville's defense definitely a very good option this week against the Raiders, Gino Smith has not been very good this season, and they are um even though they're getting Genty and out of the buy and Brock Powers back, it is definitely a viable matchup for the Jags defense.
Stat of the game here is the Raiders, the most zone heavy team in football with Travis Hunter now on IR. he would have been the biggest beneficiary of this. And Brian Thomas Jr. being that his strength is against man coverage, he scored reception perceptions numbers in the 90th percentile against man, but the 38th percentile against zone. And that was last year when he was playing better. Is Parker Washington a viable play this week? If you guys needed a low-end flex play just to throw out there because you have bye-bye, I think Parker Washington, who's going to play the slot without Travis Hunter definitely could be a viable play and even maybe DeAmy Brown as well. I'll keep an eye on those guys for waverwire speed dial and maybe even throw them out there if you got big balls.
Kansas City going to Buffalo to play the Buffalo Bills. Kansas City is two-point road favorite in this game. Easily the game of the week. Um 52 and a half point overunder. That is the second highest on the slate. Over catching 19% of the steam. That is the third highest on the slate. Both teams implied for over 25 points. Kansas City's DVOA and Buffalo's DVOA both top 12 among teams on offense this week. Both quarterbacks have bad matchups on paper. Both of these defenses, this is going to be the story of this game. Both of these defenses are defenses that you would rather run than pass against. The Chiefs 21st against the run. The Bills bottom three against the run. So, of course, you're starting Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, but they do technically not have the best matchup on the field. That would go to Kareem Hunt, who is going to fill in for Isaiah Pacheco, who should be out for this game and probably out the next couple of games with an MCL sprain that he suffered on Monday night. and James Cook, who has been on a tear as of late and just rushed for over 200 yards against the Carolina Panthers. He is going to be the key piece to determining the outcome of this game in my opinion. Whether James Cook goes nuclear or not is going to determine who wins this game. If the Chiefs can shut down James Cook, then they should be in decent shape. Rasheed Rice is going to be in your lineup. Xavier Worthy is going to be in your lineup. On the Bills side of things, you're probably going to throw Khil Shakir out there. Both tight ends. Donqinc Kaid, who is back at practice fully. This is a weird thing with Dalton Concade because a lot of people probably started him last week and he had like one catch. A Daltton Concade came into that game as like a game time decision not practicing a whole lot with the oblique injury and B they blew the doors off the Carolina Panthers so they took him off the field pretty early on in the game to preserve his health. So Daltton Concincaid a lot better of an option at tight end than maybe he seems like after the last couple of weeks when he's been dealing with this oblique injury, but he is practicing in full. I don't even believe he's on the injury report right now. So, he should be good to go in this game and definitely a viable streaming tight end. Same goes for Travis Kelce who obviously had his best game of the season last week and nearly almost cost me a win in the Flock League. Both kickers definitely in play as well given the game environment, the scoring.
What game does Kansas City play? That is the stat of the game here. Bills are number one in the NFL in rush rate against as a defense, meaning teams choose to run the ball against them, not pass the ball against them. They force you to run the ball because they are a top three passing EPA defense. The Chiefs are without starting running back Isaiah Pacheco. Will Kareem Hunt fry the Buffalo Bills in this game. Both teams have better pass defenses than run defenses, like I said. So, that will be an interesting storyline to follow.
Let's get into Sunday night football between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Commanders. The Seahawks are three-point road favorites. 48 points is the overunder here. Overcatching a lot of the steam. Seattle's DVOA advantage is very nice, but this is I wouldn't say the healthiest the Commanders have been in a while because they do not have Terry McLaren in this game, but they should have Jaden Daniels based on all reports. Debo Samuels should be good to go as well. You're going to start the usual cast of characters. Of course, Jackson Smith and Jigbo, one of the best fantasy receivers in the league, is going to be out there for you. Jaden Daniels, anytime he's healthy, you got to throw him out there. Debo Samuel, especially when Terry McLaren's been out, has been great. Um, both run games are going to be really interesting to figure out because after the buy, what does the Seahawks backfield look like? Do they decide to go more towards Walker? Do they keep things the same? Is it more Charbanet? Like we we don't really know what the Seahawks backfield's going to look like. That is going to be something I'm very intrigued to watch as a Kenneth Walker manager. I traded for him before the buy with Danny. Uh Bill Crosky Merritt going to be an interesting option uh this week as well because he has been terrible the last three games for fantasy, but he did post pretty good usage in Monday night's game against the Kansas City Chiefs, especially considering they were losing that game. I thought Jeremy McNichols might have been more involved than he already was because he did catch, I believe, four passes or something like that. Um but Bill is definitely a guy that you could throw out there. It's although not a very good matchup for him. Zack Z, a streamable tight end for sure and Jason Meyers a streamable kicker. wouldn't mess with either of these defenses, nor would I mess with M. Gay, the um Commander kicker, but you could if you absolutely had to.
Stat of the game. This is wild. And this is by far the thing that pisses me off the most about the 2025 season is that I did not see Jackson Smith and Jigba coming. I really did think that this was going to be mid wide receiver 2, high-end wide receiver 2 at best. He leads the NFL with 10 deep receptions this year. He has taken the leap from slot guy, PPR machine to allaround number one wide receiver and maybe the best in football right now. He leads the NFL in yards per route run. He leads the NFL with 10D perceptions. And the Commanders are number one in explosive pass plays allowed. So this could be a big time game for Sam Darnold and for Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you need a streaming quarterback because you got by weeks, I think Sam Darnold's one of the best ones you can go out and pick up.
The Monday night game, Dallas Cowboys taking on the Arizona Cardinals. Um, we do not know as of this moment if it will be Kyler Murray or if it will be Jacobe Brassette. The Cardinals are using some weird subliminal messaging right now saying that a quarterback will be available for media coverage. Not Kyler Murray, not Jacobe Brassette, a quarterback. So, doesn't even sound like they know who's going to start at the position this week because Kyler is still dealing with that foot injury. Jacobe Brassette has played decent and you could even argue maybe even a little bit better than Kyler in the relief games that we've seen from him. Cowboys are two and a half point home favorites in this one. I hope we see Kyler Murray because I don't really think that Jacobe Brassett's all that exciting. Uh 53 and a half point overunder though. So this game if Jacobe Brassette starts it I would say probably hits the under. But if Kyler Murray is out there and healthy, this game should be a shootout or could be a shootout at the very least. Pace of play very high, top three on the slate. you are going to start a lot of players from this game, especially if you have fringe options. Uh Dak Prescott, very good start. Kyler Murray, very good streaming quarterback and he's actually available in like 30% of leagues right now because of the by-week and the injury. People had dropped him. Uh Javvante Williams going to be out there for you. Of course, we know that CD Lamb, George Pickins, and Jake Ferguson are every week starters on the Cowboys side of things. Trey McBride, of course, one of the best, if not the best, tight ends in fantasy. The two guys I want to highlight in this matchup, Bam Knight, who Michael Carter was cut and brought back on the practice squad. Amari D Marcato also kind of dealing with something as well. I think Bam Knight is one of the best starts at the running back position this week. I have him inside my top 22 running backs for the week. And I do think, you know, 15 for 80 and two touchdowns is within the range of outcomes against one of the worst run defenses in football. God, this better be the Marvin Harrison game. as a Marvin Harrison manager. Um I think that this should be the Marvin Harrison game biasly obviously. But the Cowboys are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. So receivers who line up out wide, not in the slot. This has to be the Marvin Harrison Jr. breakout game. It absolutely has to because this dude um was on his way to having some breakout performances. Then he got a concussion and of course he's been playing with a backup quarterback the last couple of weeks. Hopefully we get Kyler Murray healthy and we get Marvin Harrison Jr. taking advantage of what could be his best game of the entire season given the matchup that he has to deal with. The Cowboys are starting Kian Peele named cornerbacks right now. Like they are starting some dudes that you have never heard of. So if Marvin Harrison does have six fantasy points in this game that would absolutely suck. He should go nuclear for a 20 plus point performance and maybe get the confidence he needs going forward.
Let's get into the streamers, the tight ends, the quarterbacks, and so on. Tight end streamers I like this week. Zack Z against the Seahawks as I made reference to with Jane Daniels out there and Terry McLaren not. I think Zack Z is a great play this week. Coulson Lovelin very solid play as well. Maybe he took a step forward in the eyes of Ben Johnson and he will be the starting tight end. Cole KT should be back for this game based on the practice reports right now. But Coulson Lovelin still a very good start against the best matchup a tight end could go up against in the Cincinnati Bengals. TJ Hawinson a viable streamer this week. Although I don't really want to tether myself to JJ McCarthy because of what I talked about in that game uh preview. Hunter Henry a viable streamer because he is playing with Drake May who's playing at an MVP level and Evan Ingram a viable streamer as well. If you need to dig deeper, I talked about Jawan Johnson. You could even go Theo Johnson as well at the tight end position if you have some buys.
Streaming quarterbacks this week, Kyler Murray, if available, one of the best options and if he's playing, of course, one of the best options you can play. Uh Caleb Williams, the premier bye-week fill in if you can get him. Um against Cincinnati Bengals should be a bounceback performance for him. Trevor Lawrence against the Raiders. Now, without Travis Hunter, he downgrades just a little bit for me. I'd probably rank him fifth of this list. Uh Aaron Rogers going up against the Colts, that is a very great game environment, very good matchup. And Sam Darnold against the Commanders, very good game environment, very good matchup. So again, I would probably reorder Trevor Lawrence to number five of that list without Travis Hunter now. But Aaron Rogers and Sam Darnold definitely getting upgraded a little bit.
My top five defenses and my top 10 defenses and top five and top 10 defenses and kickers here. We have the Chargers going up against the Titans. They're my best defense on the week. Detroit versus the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay versus the Carolina Panthers. Los Angeles Rams versus the New Orleans Saints. Jacksonville Jaguars at the Las Vegas Raiders. New England Patriots versus the Atlanta Falcons. Seattle Seahawks at the Washington Commanders here. Denver Broncos at Houston. San Francisco 49ers at New York. And Chicago at Cincinnati. Those are my top 10 defenses excluding the ones who played already, including because I had Baltimore inside my top 10, but I took them out because they had already played. Top 10 kickers, we have Brandon Aubrey against the Cardinals. Cameron Dicker, Michael Badgley, Tyler Loop, who already played. Chris Boswell, of course, I said both of those Steelers and Colts kickers you want inside your top five plays this week. Eddie Pinero, Jason Myers, Ky Fair, Harrison Bucker, Matt Prader, and then my 11th rated kicker just because I did have somebody who already played um is Matt Gay of the Washington Commanders. So, definitely if you guys need kickers and defenses, hopefully that helps you.
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