Transcription
Good, man. Good. I was um meant to be where you are in a few days, but I >> I knew it was going to get postponed. >> Yeah, I got post. My my my my friend is going, but uh and my girlfriend's going, but I I won't be able to make it. I almost went, but uh >> yeah, blame blame Trump. Blame Trump. >> Um >> what do you make of what's happening now? We've got another front. We got a a taco for the millionth time on Hermuz. Trump canled the strikes that were planned. Everyone was expecting a big attack this weekend. Didn't happen. But then you've got another front that's opened in uh the Babel Mandibra. Something we've talked about and now it's become reality. Not only that, Saudi energy infrastructure is being attacked more than it was. I think it's being attacked more than it was during the war. So, um >> Abake Abcake was just hit. Abc cake was just hit just like literally a couple hours ago. Um >> again, I know it was hit in the morning. You mean it hit second time today? >> I It was like the one I was reading about the midday today was um a chemical plant. >> Oh wow. >> Processing. >> Okay. I know about the one in the morning. So despite Riyad's claim that all Iraqi Okay, so fuel depots and oil processing infrastructure were destroyed in the Iraqi drone attack against upcake refinery. That's the one in the morning. You're saying there was another one. >> That that's the one. Yeah. >> Oh, okay. Yeah. So, that was uh pretty significant damage. So, that was the Saudis have denied this ever happened, but there satellite images um that show it. Um and then you've got the one that happened three days ago by the Houthies. They pummeled them with drones and missiles. Um they attacked Yamu as well, but I think Yamboo was not struck. And the other one got damaged pretty bad. That's one from today you're going to see now. Yeah.
>> The other one as well has been burning for days. I think for about three days, the one in Joan refinery. Um >> and I think it won't be operational for >> Yeah, it's been burning for 48 hours and it will take a while to repair. I think the operations have been halted. I think in the one from 3 days ago, but um overall it's not looking good. Would love to get your thoughts on it all.
>> Well, I think the you know it's though I like to make this point. So the market didn't want to get bullish on the straits of horm moves. So that wasn't enough for you. So we're going to give you um you know red sea, we're going to give you black sea caspian and we're going to give you Russian refining capacity. Is that enough to get you bullish? Clearly not. I mean it's just like what more can you ask for? This is an I couldn't even dream up this kind of a you know loss of overall supply. And I think that that the problem is that I that I think people are unwilling to until they actually see the shortage, they're not going to buy this. And what was about I don't really understand what happened this weekend other than they were trying to get the price of oil down because ultimately the um there's no there's no game plan. There's no strain. There's no reason why to have done this. you know, I I tend to think that the most likely outcome here is um you know, the situation just has a you know, one big, you know, um firefight to the end or whatever you want to call it, a major strike because whatever they're doing at the incremental margin is doing nothing. It's not helping. So, I am, you know, if anything, far more bullish than I was a week ago. Um and I don't think anything here has changed.
>> Okay. So let me let me take the other side of this argument.
>> Okay.
>> The beon mend strait won't take too long to resolve. All it takes is the Saudis remove the blockade of Sina and we're good on that front. The straight of Hmuz there's a high possibility Trump has just given up and we'll just walk away. The Caspian Sea is, you know, the Ukrainians are doing what they're doing. I think there's no solution to the Caspian Sea and the Russian refining capacity. I think that problem will probably persist for a period of time but at least on the other two fronts >> um straight homes being the biggest one and the end of straight being pretty significant as well and the Saudi energy infrastructure being attacked um I just think it's not that difficult to reverse to just kind of halt hostilities. That's why that's probably why oil prices are, you know, oil prices are not cheap, man. Like they were below $70. What were they before the war? WTI? Was it what was it? High60 before the war.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. Exactly. So now you're looking at it being >> But look at that on a historical basis. It's it's really low prices. Those I mean these are historically low prices. Well well below any type of I don't want you know actually I'd never like to get in those debates. I think the main issue and which I think those types of arguments miss is the odds of this thing reversing in some coherent manner when you have China provide and Russia providing reinforcements to Iran. They're not striking the US with you know um new unproven, you know, the technologies or you know hypersonic missiles from Russia. Wasn't that doesn't that have people a little bit concerned about what we're dealing with here? It's And you have the Ukrainians hitting Iranian boats, you know, for all practical purposes, you know, I don't want to use the term World War II, but we're in it. Um, you know, I'm hearing I'm hearing that a lot. The Ukrainians and they're linking it to the whole Laura Loomer interview with Zilinski and the way the media is covering it. But there's a lot of people saying I did a tweet about it. Like a lot of people that I respect are telling me that Ukraine, Zalinski and neocons are dragging Iran into the Ukraine war, merging the two wars. It's a pretty terrifying thought.
>> Yep.
>> So, you know, I I I so let's just, you know, take a step back. Question is, how do you reverse this in any, you know, feasible way without really creating a global mess? I don't I just I think it's very difficult for there's no taco once he I mean it the mistake was not abiding by theou that was written in walking away but the pride and you know it just was clearly it was written in a way that was not in their interest to to maintain but um that was the offramp it's gone.
>> why why can't Trump just walk away so skeptical that he could just walk Um, for one, um, he has to get the other he has to have these sides agree to a piece. Otherwise, I mean, now it's Hoodi striking Saudi oil production. I mean, who cares about the US being involved or not from an oil perspective? Um, you know, the Ukrainians are striking Russian uh refineries and blocking the Black Sea. Um, does that matter if the US is involved? No. Um, do they want all of this happening without having a control in it? Probably no. Um, so yeah, I don't think the it's just now before he could have walked away. Now I think it's incredibly difficult if if he tackles he genuinely tackles from Iran. He's like, look, we don't have interceptors anymore. We just cannot do this. We lost the war. I'm gonna pretended to win and just move on to Cuba. If he does that, we're done with the straight of Homo. the trade of home opens under Iranian Omani management through whatever fee structure and we're back to it takes a while to get to normality again. We we start heading down that path and then the Saudis and the Houthies do a deal, the Saudis pay them off and we're done with that drama there. If these two chips are off the table, you're still dealing with the Caspian Sea issue. Um so you're still dealing with the Ukraine Russia issue. If that's the only issue that's hitting the markets right now, let's say in an in in an in an ideal world, what would you expect prices to be then?
>> Probably somewhere in the 80 85 range. I mean, that's where I would have thought they were, you know, where they are a little bit lower than where they are right now, but not substantially. So, and when we we think about um the US doing what you just said, I mean, the the American hedgeime is over. I mean, let's go back to what we talked about before, the grand bargain between us and the rest of the world. I mean, they're supposed to keep global shipping lanes free of any problems. And now, what precedent does that establish to every other straight in the world? um you know if the US is going to maintain you know its place as a superpower it needs to go in and take care of business and keep the straits of Hormos for everybody to open for everybody to use. Um and so I I just look at that's not a good option at least for the US.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean what is it going to do? Ask ask Iran for the the fifth fleet permission to go in and out of the straits of Hormuz. Um, imagine Trump asking Iran for permission. Um, I've used our last discussion. Yeah. So, I've used our last discussion about the grand bargain multiple times in the last week. You made a really interesting point and I'll repeat it for the audience. It really stuck with me. You said I asked you a question. I'm like, do you think Trump can walk away from the straight home and give control to Iran? Is that is that a feasible scenario? Um because a lot of people are advocating for this and you said no because the the the damage this will do to American hedgeimony in the seas the allowing freedom of navigation across the world and which supports the petro dollar supports the dollar as the world reserve currency. Um it would be not immeasurable but it would be a crack that will continue to spread as you said it sets a precedent and then the US would lose control of the of that hedgeimonyy it established in the seas. So once the US is no longer the guarantor of free trade, the US dollar being the hegemonic currency becomes threatened. That's why the US cannot just walk away. Can you explain this again? And do you stand by that position?
>> Yep. Let's go back to like 19 I think it was 1945. Um actually it was December after the Second World War in Bretonwoods. It's called the Bretonwoods agreement. It's the whole way the world has worked since the end of the Second World War. Before them, every victor would just be an empire, take control of the places they conquered. The US actually did the opposite, it actually said, "Hey, we're going to give you a bunch of money to go rebuild yourself." That was the World Bank. Um then, um in exchange for that, um we want you to use the dollar as a place of trade, recycling it all through New York. Um, in exchange for that, we're going to use our large US Navy and military force to protect global trade, keep sealanes open. And the primary commodity that was being shipped was oil. And one of the key reasons why that was so important is that when you the oil, it was the first time people had supply chains that were dependent on places really far away and oil was the strategically most important commodity. So that's all of this was agreed upon. Now the petro dollar didn't come in existence until Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971. But that was the setup from that point forward. Um you had that the grand bargain with the rest of the world and it's worked great and got us 80 years to where we are right now. But the question is if they lose control of the straits, then they have demonstrated to the world they're no longer the global protectorate of global trade. Because I want to point out even today when you move a metric ton of copper from Chile to Shanghai, um the United States protects those Pacific trading lanes. Um for a place like China, it's not China. It's not Chile protecting those boats. It's the United States. So now the rest of the world is going, why am I paying this to the United States to do this when they're not helping me out? That's So that's the logic here. And you're going to go, well, so what if we lose that reserve currency status? I'm I'm going to give you an example of what it does. Um I recently um was looking at mortgage rates in Switzerland and because everybody is putting their money into Switzerland right now. So, it's like one of the strongest currencies in the world because everybody's worried. Can I tell you what a mortgage rate in Switzerland is for a 30-year fixed 50 basis points. That's telling you the advantage you get from being the global um reserve currency because everybody buys the currency, puts the money into your country, then you have a lot of credit to be able to dish out. That American consumer is driven by what they call the exorbitant privilege. And that what keeps keeps them alive and able to access the credit they like. Right now the United States is spending on its economy 7% more than what it produces. That's a lot. You take that 7% out of that economy is going to be pretty painful. So I go back to let's go back. That was the original agreement. That was the grand bargain. Why you have the world's reserve currency being the US dollar and they're supposed to protect the world. Now, if you take that that privilege away, it'll have a big impact. It's not like super bullish oil prices or something like that. That's at the core of it right there. Is that is that easier to understand, Mario?
>> Yeah. And would that would a scenario where there is um you know if the Iranians agree to meet halfway somehow and there is a fee that is charged that is shared by both the Omanis and the Iranians maybe even shared with the rest of the Gulf countries would that be a scenario that would would might be acceptable for the Americans not to damage the the the you know the perception of US hedgemony in the seas. I mean, how's the how are the Americans going to get the fifth fleet in and out to Bahrain, which is one of the most u they can move their base from there. It's not they already by the way, the British had that base. The Americans had that base. That base has been there for what 200 years u two hedgemens and now you're going to say, "Oh, the Americans have to move out." boy that symbols that's a that's you know this that's why I go back to the point um that this is a reversal of western dominance for centuries this is not like hey a you know find me another time in history where the hedgemen whether it was Britain or the United States before then you could put like maybe France and Spain find me another time in history where the hedgemen was forced out and still be in the hedgemen because they're not a global the global hedgeiment anymore. That's that's why
>> the two the two are contradictory.
>> Yep.
>> But if he believes in the Monroe Doctrine, which is all they care about is the Western Hemisphere, then it's the right answer. But you're no longer the global hudgman and you're no longer the global reserve currency.
>> What about the the scale of the Euro dollar? um you know it's become when you have the network effect it's really hard there's no there's if the if the dollar is no longer the reserve currency what's the alternative because there's the argument that there is no alternative so once there if there's no alternative then despite the weakening of US military hedgeimmony um people will still have to use the dollar
>> I'm sure people made that point about the Brit pound sterling in 1920 um you know um I could come up with a lot of scenarios a lot of people on this call would probably call me a quack. But but the reality is um the whole game is changing so fast in front of ourselves right now. Um you know when we look at the like war, you know, the warfare, you know, we talked about this extensively. You don't have to be a big superpower to have a military that can have impact. You can be a middle kingdom and still be able to create a lot of problems for other other people. The world is a different place. And I think if there's anything that's done at the speed, how both this Ukrainian and Ranian war have evolved so quickly um to you know new technologies and everything. So I you know that's you know the question is the the whole paradigm that we lived in from 1945 to now or from actually there was a period so you go back to 1820 when the British defeated Napoleon that's when it all started you know industrial age in the world that we live in from 1820 to 1920 it was the UK hedgemen that kept it together from 1920 till 1945 there was nothing there and look what happened um two world wars and the world disintegrated and then the Americans came out on top. So it's not a you know we're we're going into that I regard I I made the argument in things we've written that that vacuum is likely to occur with or without Trump. Trump actually did recognize all this and he was you know part of the reasons he won out of NATO and the rest of them he couldn't afford to run that system anymore. Now, what replaces it, I haven't seen a good argument from anyone what it's going to replace. Um, but we're heading that direction. And, you know, are we going to be trading in stable coins? I don't know. There's a lot of other options out there you can create. Um, but you know,
>> stable coin, what backs the stable coin? All 99 whatever percent of stable coin transactions are backed by the US dollar. send gold to 10,000 or 20,000, then you got enough gold in the world to to back it, you know, and look at the at the rate that um who is it? Coinbase that is buying buying gold right now.
>> U tether tether tether tether's buying gold. Um so yeah, I I tend to think we're we're heading in a world where, you know, the it's wide open to what you end up choosing.
>> Okay. Um, you mentioned the Ukraine war twi before the Ukraine war you talked. No, let's do the Ukraine war. Um, yeah. Tell me more. Are you genuinely concerned the two wars could merge?
>> I think they are. I mean, where where did where did um Iran get, you know, the weaponry that it's currently using? Did he just borrow the the Russian technology and assemble it really quick or did the Russians actually provide it to them? Um, and you know, they've seen enough Russian markings markings on the the weapons that they have found that hey, there's a good chance the Russians are back. I would tend to think common sense tells you they are. Um, and China's providing them with intelligence. Um, and you got to also ask, where did the hoodies get the intelligence this morning? They got it from Russia um to hit those tankers. Um, so where how did they get those? Maybe they got it from the Iranians. They got it from the Chinese or the Russians.
>> Yeah.
>> So, at least there they've got the Russians or Chinese have plausible deniability in case Saudis like you.
>> No, we didn't talk to the Houthies. We're only friends with Iran and we told Iran not to attack you.
>> Yeah.
>> Um Okay. There's also the um is it, you know, a lot of guests and probably yourself as well talks about a premium in oil prices because of the risk of the straight homes closing later on. You got to be you got to factor that in at all times. Um and the risk of the Babel Mendip straits being closed as well. That's something that didn't exist at least the straight home didn't exist before this war. So will there be a straight home premium for the foreseeable future? Even if things ease up and even if we get flow back to what it was before the war, we get to the same level of ships going through. There's still that premium the risk premium is increased. Yes.
>> You know that should be out on the back of the forward curve in this most recent rally. the forward curve went down. That's where you would find a security premium. Um so we're actually at lower levels now. In fact, somebody did an analysis looking at the you know the last time we were at 85. Um the back um when we were 85 was much higher. So you would argue that longer term security premium for closures across the world should be embedded there, but it's not. And I think part of that's liquidity. Also, it says there was probably a lot of producers selling into that second chance and that's why that back
>> forward curve went down means the future prices are lower than the current price. Um so backward
>> when you went up the curve went Yeah. got more backward.
>> Yeah, exactly. Um and the backwardation shows that the price of oil
>> the premium is not being factored in otherwise you'll have contango. You'll have the price higher than what it is right now. But we don't have that.
>> Right. And it when we when you think about
>> you don't sorry but you don't have that now you're meant to have it once things completely open up right now that it doesn't exist because there's other factors that are more important about the risk premium. The risk premium becomes a factor once everything's back to normal.
>> Yep.
>> Does that make sense?
>> But I don't Yeah. But I think it should be in there right now. That's why I'm a little baffled. But I think at the core of it is um you know the market's just not too many people have been beaten up in this market to play it. And I think the volatility ultimately if if you were the US government or any government out there, you just wanted to get speculators out of this market just make it go up and down every day. No trends. No, very difficult to make money. That higher volatility reduces the activity in these markets, the investment, everybody leaves. By the way, it makes the problem worse. I like to point out higher ball leads to lower investment. Lower investment leads to higher ball. you know, it's a vicious circle that goes around and round. Um, and so ultimately trying to get people to buy the back end, even though they may agree 100% with what you just said, and I do too, um, it's really difficult in this environment.
>> Okay. Interesting. Um, all right. So, let's um, anything else before we go back to the war? Anything else that's interesting on the economic side? Yeah, I I think the you know the the the I think the one thing that I see out there is a bigger and more developed focused on metals and battery technologies there and it's it's funny that used to be the domain of the world of environmentalists. It's now number one focus of so many people I've been talking to. Um, so yeah, I think it's
>> battery efficiency
>> battery batteries themselves to replace oil and the
>> Oh, okay.
>> Yeah, I think I made this point before. There's like the um refuelers in the um the um you know the big refueling ships and refueling planes, they're sitting ducks for um the drones. And as a result, um, we have a bigger and bigger focus on battery technology. So you're not using these big floating refuelers following everybody. It changes the the supply.
>> Um, if that's the one thing and since we last talked that seems to be gathering momentum.
>> Yeah. in the military and but also I've had a lot of I've heard a lot of people say how this Iran war is probably one of the best things to happen for renewable energy because now it's become a necessity for all these different countries.
>> Yep.
>> So I'm guessing Tesla stock did well through the war or no I know it's impacted by other factors as well but relative to other stocks other tech stocks how's it how it perform as well as other
>> I think I think I think the fact that that um Mr. Musk made it to being a trillionaire. It has to be I have I don't follow it but I assume put it this way 40% of the market cap of the US stock market of those mag seven now throw in space.
>> That's insane.
>> Insane.
>> That's insane.
>> By the way, that's the economic thing I think is sitting out there that nobody wants to talk to. And part of the reason why I would say the the most highly likely reason they came out with a Saturday announcement of putting a pause on hostilities is they needed the oil price to go down to um get them to keep those share price valuations because that by the way that thing is it drives u tax receipts. Think about that that there are huge tax receipts that come out of it.
>> Um and then it keeps out of the stock market. So, if that thing comes crashing down, it's it's a lot bigger problem than just oil prices going up. And by the way, oil oil is going down today. And I think you're already seeing some pretty significant hits there. But that's the one I think that that oil price themselves, they don't care. It's that stock market and the relative interest rates that are more important than, but oil feeds into those.
>> Is China buying up oil again or not yet? My understanding is that teapot refineries are now chasing those margins. So they're they're supposedly back. I haven't seen the data to support it. Uh but almost everybody I talked to says they're back. Uh Trump is speaking. Let me see if there's anything. Uh okay. Nothing special. Um ah there is another another narrative that's gaining a lot of traction. And I mentioned it to you the first time my guest Philip Pilington talked to me about it which is about the manipulation that we're seeing in the oil markets and that started gaining a lot of traction. So that interview went into a big report on some publication. I forgot what it's called and then that went on other podcasts. Tucker went on it as well and started talking about it from that report. O I think the report is not sure if you saw that report.
>> Yeah. Um,
>> well, I mean,
>> what is what was special about their their report that um made it stand out other than, hey, we see we see it happening. I think everybody sees it happening. What was the point? What were the points they made?
>> I didn't read the I didn't read the report, but it's starting to get a lot more traction now in the press about uh oil prices being manipulated in different ways, especially the algorithmic aspect of it. Um
>> Oh, yeah. Yeah, I saw that one.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Um, I know we spoke about it briefly before. Um, have you had a chance to do a bit of a deep dive into it or not much?
>> Because
>> everything they said is true. It's it's true. You know, I I absolutely you you know, you want
>> I didn't expect you to say that.
>> No, absolutely. Are they behind it? You know, by the way, if you everything that they said is true, we can't prove they're behind it. There's a lot of speculation and good arguments I've seen made that they're behind it. Uh, but I absolutely believe, you know, and you can see this already happening under the Biden administration. So, it's not, if they want to give somebody credit for doing this, I would give the Biden administration credit for starting it. Uh, maybe Trump got better at it. By, by the way, all of these things that the Trump administration does. It's not the first time we've ever seen it. Um, so actually, I don't think there's anything new in this playbook. What is new is all those other playbooks had a small enough of disruption. All they had to do was keep it alive until you replenish supplies. Um so what's different is the magnitude of this and of that report
>> what they said that that is absolutely 100% true. 70% of the of trading activity is in the machines is quants. Um, you know, I I am a partner at Altus Partners who is a quant um fund that does this. That's how I know a lot about it. and we're looking to introduce a hybrid because the way I like to think about these quant funds, it's like, you know, when um R2-D2 and um Luke Skywalker flew the X-wing, RDT, R2-D2 flew the X-wing all the time except when when um when Darth Vader had to enter the scene and then that's when Luke Skywalker would take the controls and fly. If you're running a fund, it's see in any market at this point right now, you better have R2-D2 flying this thing, most of the time he's going to do it better than a human can. Um, but when you know, like when you're taking on Darth Vader and it's like Trump with his tariffs or Trump with his his memorandum of understandings, the market's going like this. The machines don't do well in that. Um, so like the yeah, the machines and the volatility in oil back in March and April made it really difficult for him. But yes, I mean at this point, you know, you I like, you know, call it crypto AI, DT AI. Um, we're moving into a world that's trading like that. So, they're absolutely right. Um, but the reality is, um, is that anything new? No. Um, maybe they're pushing it harder. Um, but, you know, I can find you. I I was 100% sure Biden was doing it. Um and um the guys Biden had out and by the way you listen to the guys who was it Amos Hawkstein um you know he's making now he's he's sounding like you and I um now he's on the other side but um I think the and he's made the point that the SPR probably is in that three you know you get it below 300 you got a problem versus the government just came out at 70 and you got to know he knows firsthand what happens when that thing drains that fast which goes to my point here. Biden was using these same types of strategies that that that Trump was using. So, I don't see anything new about it. Um, which I'm curious why this reports getting as much emphasis as it is
>> because it's a sexy report, Jeffrey. It's in the middle of the Iran war.
>> It's a great it's a great narrative.
>> Phillips says uh said he's he's been talking about it for years. Like he's been he's saying where it's been going on for years, but now it's on overdrive. Similar to what you said. I'll tell him Jeffrey said the same thing. For for some reason when I say Jeffrey said this, I'm like, "Oh, okay. If Jeffree said it, then then it must be true." I'm like, "Oh, cool." All right. So, they got the Jeffrey stamp of approval.
>> Yeah.
>> Um, what else we have? So, this one is crazy. Uh, Iraq's national security adviser just now, Iraq's national security adviser says that blank I won't name the country. You're not going to guess the country. says that blank cells are active throughout Iraq, participating in false flag attacks. Quote, "Blank intelligence cells carry out attacks in Iraq and falsely attribute them to various factions. We arrested individuals and elements who confessed that blank cells carried out attacks on sovereign Iraqi facilities. Guess the country he's referring to." You wouldn't do this to me if it was Iran, but um um or know it can't be Israel. Um
>> you're good. Yeah, correct.
>> Maybe US.
>> No, no, Ukraine.
>> Ukraine. Wow.
>> They literally just prayed Ukraine for doing false. Who would have thought Ukraine? Suddenly now Ukraine is everywhere. It was not mentioned at all in the war. They strike a ship. Zalinski going to the US. Laura Loomer out of all people flips and meets Zalinski suddenly loves Ukraine. The media suddenly loves Loomer because she loves Ukraine and now Zalinsky as I said is going to meet the US and now they're talking about Ukra Iran is threatening Ukraine and now Iraq is talking about Ukrainian false flag attacks in 10 days from not being in the press at all to now suddenly being part of the narrative.
>> Wow. That goes how we started this World War II, my friend. That's like Yeah.
>> That's wild.
>> Wild.
>> But the
>> Trump said the the war is over. He said the the Iran's begging him for a deal. So we're in the clear, Jeffrey. Iran's begging Trump for a deal. I think we're good.
>> Trump said they're begging him for a deal. Yeah. The war's over. We're done. Sell your oil. Change your position.
>> Um All right. I think we covered everything. He's speaking now. Uh Trump is speaking now. I'm getting all the quotes from him, but there's literally nothing he hasn't said already. Anything else interesting that we missed?
>> No, I think we we I think we covered all the This is a hard day today, you know, understanding exactly what the motivations were. And I I myself I'm a little lost before I did this. I called up everybody I know to have get perspectives on this and so I had to sound intelligent. This one's really hard. Um because it goes back to at the core of you know why they I guess the part of this there is no objective. What is the objective? That's probably the best way to describe the lack the the confusion associated with this and I don't think we talked about any objectives once in the last 30 minutes. So
>> when you um I'm not gonna I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole of what the objectives are. Um so you're talking about the Iran war. when you spoke to people because I I I know you probably have a pretty not probably I know you have an interesting uh contact network because I know some of the people you know um so what are they saying what are the different perspectives you're getting and what's your conclusion from all these different discussions
>> okay one of them was making the point to me the only thing that matters are the ships coming out of the straits and right now it's zero so all the hot air you can talk about anything there's only one number that matters And it's that flow of oil. And I have to agree with that. I hope maybe the market has changed its tune. Instead of um listening to all these tweets and everything, it's now just looking at the hard data. And you know, the question is, you know, what are we going to get to in a place where where it could flow? The other one um was the one that said the objective to me and he was making making the point maybe the objective is the same. It's regime change. if that is the case. By the way, he cited to me some stuff I really can't repeat here, but it's pretty compelling. Um, meaning like a lot of people in Saudi Arabia taking holidays right now. Um, probably with Abcake getting hit, they're looking at time to get out is more likely than not. um and this pause right now to keep everything under control as reinforcements are something much bigger because if you do go to the point that the US loses its hedgeim position if it doesn't take back the straits of Hormuz there's too much to lose here and let's also remember they sent a lot of reinforcements into the region you know starting you know what a week and a half ago so um you know I'm I'm more of a buy I'm a buyer of both points you got to watch the data But the but I do think if you know given what's going on in KSA you know we're talking about there I mean that's that that was not on our on our bingo card you know two or three weeks ago when we talked. So it's this seems
>> let alone Ukraine that that Houth if the Houthies were not on the bingo card Ukraine was not even
>> Ukraine can definitely not by the way that that's I can't believe that came out Ukrainian proxies going into this.
>> Yeah. Let me see who said that again because that's just such a crazy thing. The Iraqi National Security Adviser. Let me see who he's who he's I'm assuming he's on the uh he's supportive of the Iranians. is more empathetic with the Iranian cause because that's that fits the Iranian narrative. Uh I'll ask now. Uh
>> I actually the Iraq the Iraqi narrative. I don't know what it is.
>> Um yeah. No, because I want to see if this guy uh the national security adviser of Iraq, if he's supportive of the Iranian side, that might be part of a narrative that Iran is trying to create after Ukraine struck their ship. But no, this guy neither. He appears balanced and technocratic. He was appointed in 2026. He's a judge legal expert with prior roles in Iraq Iraq's judiciary electoral commission parliamentary adi parliament advising constitution drafting and unis accountability work. He has met both US and Iranian officials. Pushes openness to the world NATO state monopoly on weapons and constructive ties based on mutual interest. So yeah, no pro Iran, no pro US lean according to Grock. So yeah um I had one thing from what you've mentioned um it's important to also note Jeffrey that the objectives does doesn't need to be completed this year it could be a three four year project for regime change because some people are saying Mario this operations been going on for decades it could go on for another decade so maybe now the US pauses for 5 years 10 years builds up the stock piles and tries again or it could be an ongoing operation of economic warfare supporting the proxies um like the Kurds that are being attacked daily by Iran. You got to think why are the Iranians striking them on a daily basis non-stop um and the Iranians put out a warning two days ago warning all these different factions not to make a move. Actually implying he was referring to the Kurds. He was an IRGC commander. He was saying we know what the Americans are planning with the Kurds. That was yesterday and we won't let that happen. Um so yeah, the oper the war may continue but in different forms.
>> Yeah. Cool. Well, Jeffrey,
>> gotta get that straight open. Yeah. Great seeing you all.
>> Appreciate it, man. Thanks, Jeffrey.
>> Take care.
>> All right, guys. Um, we'll be live again in me and uh Brandon Wer will be live again in 10 minutes to go through today's news recap. See you in 10 minutes.