Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, November 5, 2025, in front of crypto enthusiasts. We are going to see if a nice little local pattern isn't forming with a bullish wave that could take off suddenly. You'll see, it's going to be interesting. For now, the American ETFs are not really buying. 566 million dollars in Bitcoin sales. On the other hand, Black Rock sold nothing at all in terms of Bitcoin. So, that's nice. However, in terms of Ethereum, 219 million dollars in sales with Black Rock selling, but half of that Ethereum. So for now, Black Rock's clients prefer to keep their Bitcoin. On the other hand, they want a little less Ethereum. The market is in extreme fear. And so that's good news. Why extreme fear? It's when all the alarms go off and ring, everyone panics. Oh my god! Because the altcoins are taking a hit, and on the other hand, it might be time to grab your little orange shopping cart and do some little Bitcoin shopping. You see, that's what your little darling is doing. I'm walking around with my little cart, I'm taking a Satoshi, I'm putting it in there, a strawberry Satoshi, a raspberry Satoshi, an apricot Satoshi. I'm doing my little Satoshi shopping, you see, because it's in moments when the market is in extreme fear that we see nice patterns starting to form. It's the same tune as usual. However, altcoins, be careful, Bitcoin shopping is good, but for altcoins, be careful. And speaking of altcoins, it's Wednesday, and every Wednesday evening, I make you a video, or rather a live stream, a live stream where I analyze all your cryptos on the VIP Telegram channel, which is here. So, if you don't know, it's a channel where every morning, I share videos of about 10 minutes where I show you a trading-style analysis, a very precise analysis of what's going to happen in the very short term. I also show you my trading plans every morning, quite simply. It's free to access, you just need to have a BingX account. Why? Because I created this VIP Telegram to thank the people who use BingX through my referral link. And after that, you have access to it for life. You see, you just need to have a BingX account, knowing that BingX is an exchange you might not know. It's one of the exchanges with the lowest fees on the market. Before I was a partner with BingX, I was already using BingX, so I was happy that they approached me as a partner, and you can see here that I'm comparing the taker trading fees of BingX compared to Binance, Bybit, Bitget, and all the others. You see that BingX beats everyone in terms of fees. Binance charges you 11% more in fees than BingX. Bybit charges you 22% more. Bitget charges you 33% more in fees than BingX. So if you like fees, well, give them fees to Bitget. You like that, same for XT.com, 33% MEXC + 11% Qcoin + 33% Zomex + 33% fees, you don't see it too much, it's behind there. Same for BlinX + 33% fees. So I ask myself, what are people doing on exchanges where they're bleeding them dry with fees? Maybe some people like to give blood, to make blood sausage, you know. I don't know. Well, so if you want a pretty nice exchange where you won't pay much in fees, come and take a look at BingX, come and try it at least, you'll see. Well, so tonight, for all those who want to, we'll see each other on the live stream, and there, I'll analyze all your cryptos one by one. So everyone gives me cryptos. Me, bam, bam, bam, bam, I analyze everything in a row. Well, so altcoins today, a little green candle. Is it the green candle, can we say "we are saved"? Well, not necessarily, that's clear. There are still positive things. Well, I'll start with the negative. The negative is that there have been two candles that have broken the lower Bollinger band. So, the sliding effect can happen with a drop to the bottom to reach the wick. Theoretically, we should reach the wick. Okay. The nasty wick from October 10th. This famous wick, you see, where I told you, 3 weeks ago, be careful, these wicks are often retested. Well, it didn't miss. It didn't miss because as long as we don't break the previous high, we'll go say hello to the wick. Okay? So on the negative side, we also have bearish momentum. Well, that's all on the negative side. Okay. The positive side is a little green candle. If tomorrow we have a second green candle, well, we'll cancel the elevator effect. We'll go back inside the Bollinger bands. Plus, we're not far from the oversold zone. The last time we went there, it was in July, then before that it was in April 2025, then after that it was in February 2025. So, you don't often go into the oversold zone. That's very good news too. You see, something else also regarding the structure. Now, the structure tells us we're going to go get, we're going to go under the wick. If it's not today or in a week, we'll go there. But before that, we could do something nice. Why? Because you have all of this which is potentially a wave B. For an A here, a B there, boom, you can have a wave C. Okay. If this wave starts to go above here, above the A, there won't be anything under the wick. You'll then have an A, a B, a C, and you'll have a continuation running. So you're not even obliged to go under the wick. But for that, altcoins need to make a rise, a +34%. That's why, perhaps, there's a higher probability of hitting the wick there. But be careful with these structures, if suddenly we have a big bullish wave, okay, it means we are validating this A, this B, and this C of this pattern. Okay? So be careful, we can do anything, be careful, it feels good, you see. So we can absolutely do this structure. When this C is finished, it will make the structure above, which is this A, this B, this C, and if the C goes higher, you're on a running pattern and it's going to the moon. Okay? So, this is the first scenario where we will validate this as a B, and there will be a bullish wave C that will start. The second scenario is the one I talked about recently, which is that we are making the weekly structure. Unfortunately, the weekly structure is to validate the big C of the great correction. Now, the big C of the great correction, I'll use this expression for a huge wave C that will correct all of this. Remember, we corrected after 5 months from December to April, this is wave A, all of this is wave B. And so if we start the correction of the weekly structure, in that case, we will have a C where, yes, you will be put on life support. You see, it's a wave C that very few people will recover from, that's the idea. So, I will really call it the C of the great correction. It's the C of the weekly structure, the big wave of the largest structure. So if it starts, I'll talk about it this weekend in the long-term analysis. Okay? If the wave is the great correction. However, as long as this wave doesn't start, we can absolutely either simply validate a pattern here, that is to say A, B, and C which will continue to fall to break this low. But after having done A, B, C, well, what do you do? Well, boom, you start again. Or it's the big C of the great correction. So in summary, the structure tells us three scenarios, I'll do it properly. The first is the big weekly C, it's directly hell. You call it a bear market, it's hell, impossible. Okay. Well, second scenario, I'll go from the most bullish or more bullish. It's here, small A, small B, small C. So this small C will continue, but after validating this pattern, boom, it explodes. So the structure can still fall. The, well, the structure, this wave can fall. It will do a minimum of -15%, it can do -25% if it wants. That is to say that Bitcoin will go towards $92,000 or even lower. Well, that's the idea. And so, okay, it will sting, but at the end, when it finishes stinging, it will explode. That's scenario number 2. Scenario number 3, which is the most bullish, which is also possible. Okay? It's the one I told you about at the beginning. Small A, small B, it doesn't break the low. Wave C pushes, breaks the high here. And there, you are on a running pattern where wave B is all of this for this A, for a wave B, for an A, for a B, for a C that will not go under the wick. And there, boom, an explosion of bullishness. Here are the three scenarios. Now, every day, we will have new data, and we will see. If we start, if the altcoins fall and start to break the bottom of the wick, we will have only two scenarios left. The first is the regular flat. I'll do it more properly, the regular flat, sorry. Not easy to aim with the mouse. The regular flat here, boom, and boom like that. Small A, small B, small C, and it explodes after, because be careful, the finality of a regular flat is an explosion upwards. Okay? We will only have two scenarios left if we break the little wick. So this one, which is number 1, and number 2, well, it's that this is the great correction where we will all cry, you see. That's the idea. So we'll see how things evolve with our beloved Bitcoin. Same head. Everyone will have the same head. I'll do it again for Bitcoin, but for Ethereum, Solana, XRP, it's all the same, you'll understand. Well, so things are not very pretty for Bitcoin. Well, the bears are there, they have momentum, even if it's not as strong as before. What's negative? Well, the structure, I'll show you. And the fact that we broke the Bollinger band and we're trying to recover it today, it's around $103,000, we'd need to reach it, that would be good. Well, so for now, there's not that much negative. I'll show you the positive things now. If Bitcoin manages to recover its upper Bollinger band, which is around $103,000, that's good news. That means it's reintegrating the bands and that this was a false breakout and it's likely to go up. Rather good news. Second good news, we are close to the oversold zone. The oversold zone is the best of the best zones for buying Bitcoin. You see, I'm bilingual, as you know. And so the last time Bitcoin went into the oversold zone, wow, you know when it was in February 2025, it's not every day that it goes into the oversold zone, at least every 6 months. Before February 2025, it was in the summer of 2025, then it was in February 2025. So it goes into the oversold zone every 6 months. So the oversold zone, you see, it's like you grab your little cart and you go to the aisle, head for the Satoshis, and you grab everything on the shelves, you see, like a vegetarian who's lacking carrots, you grab all the carrots, you put them in your cart, and you do that. You're angry like that. I'm not angry, but that's the idea of the oversold zone. That's the idea. And the overbought zone, well, it's more like you take all your carrots, you see, or your Satoshis, and you take them outside the store, you say "Satoshi before, Satoshi before." You bought them cheap before, and everyone wants them, you see. It's like when there's a shortage, everyone rushes for pasta and sunflower oil, you see, it's the thing that's out of stock when there's a problem, you see. And it's the same here, you're shopping for carrots and barbecue. Well, so here, you see, it's rather nice. Bitcoin trying to recover its upper Bollinger band, lower band, sorry. Now, regarding the structure, I'll also do it properly for Bitcoin so you can understand. Okay? So there are also three scenarios emerging. Okay? Now, the first scenario with the great correction C, it's we correct the large structure, the A here, all of this is the B. The B, you see, the A, so it went up to $74,000. The B is all of this, and here is the start of the C, meaning it's a minimum of $92,000, it can go into the reload zone which extends to $85,000. It can go wherever it wants. It just must not break $74,000. If it breaks $74,000, I'll change my hat, I'll put red everywhere, okay? It's a bear market, it's going to be awful. Well, so definitely not $74,000. So, first scenario, the great correction C, which is the C of the big weekly running pattern. And there, we'll all poop ourselves. We need to stock up on diapers, clearly. That's it. Scenario number 1, the most bullish. Scenario number 2, which is also a bit bearish, which is, in my opinion, the current scenario, if you want, is the regular pattern here. Here, small A, small B, small C, boom, we explode. New record. That's clear. Now, this one doesn't have a scenario. There are only two scenarios. That's it. So, here are the scenarios, because after that, we can't say "Well, it's making a small A, a small B, a small C." Well, it's the same, it's a regular pattern, we don't care. It's the same. Well, so the second scenario is that it validates this. So how do we know? Well, it's simple, can Bitcoin fall a bit more? It's allowed, you see, there's a wick here at $98,457 that it hasn't retested. It's allowed to make a small rebound and fall a bit more. But if suddenly we see Bitcoin, so it's allowed to gain a bit, but not necessarily, we see Bitcoin explode suddenly, you'll know why. It's because it's validating its regular pattern here. It's been correcting since early October. So it's been correcting for a month. So this could be a small correction of a month to start again. It's perfectly allowed to do that. Okay. And what will give us more probability of one scenario? It only has two structures, the scenario. Okay. Of Bitcoin. Well, what will give us more probability of one or the other? Well, it will be a bit the atmosphere of finance. Whether the stock market falls or not. If the stock market corrects sharply, well, it's the great correction. If, however, the American government gets back to work a bit and good news comes out, well, it won't be the great correction. And especially when you see the liquidity, well, there's quite a bit to the north, you see. There are still big towers waiting around $113,000. So a small rebound at least to $113,000 is also possible. You see, if you pull the short zone a bit, where we fell to around $98,000, well, the short zone that Bitcoin could aim for to either push much higher or fall later, is between $116,000 and $120,500. It's still possible to go there. It's still possible. That means it can either validate this to go into the short zone and then do the great correction, or simply explode and new historical records. In my opinion, if it explodes, it's the validation of this regular pattern. This validated regular pattern tells us I'm going to aim for the last high, so I'm going to aim for the top of A, $126,000. So if it validates this regular pattern, it's new historical records, clearly. So this regular pattern, can we say no, it doesn't validate, it's going for the great correction? Well, when you see all the liquidity, you think, oh, it could still take a little trip, you see. Well, so it's not that catastrophic. You know the tune, as long as Bitcoin zigzags on a channel, it will explode upwards. So it continues to make its little channel. However, if it starts to flow, flow, flow, you see, flow, well, you're not really on a little channel anymore, you see. Because instead of having a cute little channel like this, you have something that's being pulled down. So that will be the great correction. Well, for now, I think it's not too bad what it's showing us regarding Ethereum. It's the same for everyone. Okay, Ethereum is the same. So, where is the big C of the great correction for Ethereum, you see? It's correcting, well, the big wave A it made since December, same thing. It went from $4100 to around $1400, that's wave A. All of this is potentially wave B. So either it's the C of the great correction, heading for the first gap at $2853, heading for the reload zone between $2185 and $2190, or even the gap at $1733 to validate the running pattern with this C of the great correction, and then boom, it explodes to the moon. That's scenario number one. And scenario number two, it's the scenario, well, it simply validates a small regular pattern. You see, here it is, this regular pattern. Well, this would be good with the contracting B, but we don't care. It's A, B, then C, that's it, you see, it validates this. Hop, I'll do it again, boom, and clack, explosion. It has to go above $4700. That's the second scenario. So it's not bad, in short. It's funny, it's a coin toss. Either it's the great correction, or it ends up there any day now, and boom, it explodes. You see, it's not me making it up. I'm reading the structures as usual. The structures this summer told us it was bad, but it didn't miss, you see. Now the structure tells us to wait and see, to wait and see, you see. Well, now we see that it's trying to recover its 200-day moving average, $375 for Ethereum. If it manages to recover its 200-day moving average and makes another green candle tomorrow to re-enter the lower Bollinger band at $3448, it will be good. Ethereum is in the oversold zone. Hello, it's there. To do the shopping, it's good. After that, it's better. Well, and regarding liquidity, well, it's accumulating a bit to the south. So be careful, a bottom doesn't happen immediately. Okay? I can't tell you "Yes, it's good now, it's validated, it's pushing." What would be the best bottom? It would be this. But it takes time, it takes a long time. It can last a good week, quite a few days. It would be this. If you see a bearish channel like this, boom, well, it will start again. And then there will be a much higher probability of having the regular pattern. So, we want a bearish channel. We want two things. Either the bearish channel, it will increase the probabilities of finishing so that everyone finishes the decline and it pushes, or we want a first impulse followed by a bearish channel. And then, it's off to the races. That will be the validation of this regular pattern. You see, that's what we want as a structure. If we see Ethereum and everyone else falling, falling, falling like this, then it's bad, clearly. Okay. So we want a channel, we want a structure. Well, now, regarding Solana, well, Solana has made two not-so-pretty candles. Yesterday's, which broke all the supports, especially the 200-day moving average, and broke the lower Bollinger band. The second one yesterday, well, we don't like it too much because two candles breaking the lower Bollinger band strongly increases the probability of this sliding effect with candles surfing on it. We have a green candle today, but if it doesn't recover the Bollinger band around $162, then this green candle will be for nothing, you see. So the negative things today, I would say for Solana, the green candle isn't strong enough, the fact that the bears are there and have momentum. Now, the positive things. Well, okay, if tomorrow we have a green candle that re-enters, tonight, that's good news. Other good news, we see that we are in the oversold zone. That's good news. The last time Solana was in the oversold zone, it was here in February 2025. So it's not every day, you see. So it's a very good bottom zone. Be careful, I didn't say the bottom is here now. A bottom takes time. A week, 10 days, 2 weeks, it takes time. It's not a V-bottom, that's very rare. The thing like it falls and boom, it takes off to the moon, that's very rare. Usually, it falls, it slowly goes up, it falls again, you see, it takes its time to make people capitulate. So you have to assume it won't be immediate. Well, regarding the structure, it's exactly the same. Well, I said I would only do it for Bitcoin, but okay, I'll do it for everything. So, the problem with Solana is that if it's the great correction C that starts for everyone, heading below $94. Solana had its big wave A here from December to April. Wave B is all of this. If this is the C of the great correction, it will go break the bottom of A, $94. I'm saying if it's the big C of the great correction, I'm not saying it's starting. So, first scenario, very bearish. Yes, the great correction C, and Solana below $100, clearly. Second scenario, it's the validation of this regular pattern, especially here we see a big bearish channel. Good news. Zigzag, zigzag, zigzag, zigzag. After a while, it explodes upwards. So here it is, this small regular pattern. Small A, small B, it's beautiful, moreover. Small C, you see, A, B, C, it's beautiful. If this breaks, if this is validated, scenario 2, it will go above A, that is to say above $237. Is it validated? Yes, it is validated. So, it's really a coin toss. I'll have to put this as a thumbnail this morning. It's a coin toss. Where will the regular pattern be validated for everyone soon? Well, it could be today or in a week, it could still drag on. It should drag on. If we see something that drags on like this, it's very good news. Clearly, what we don't want to see is something that collapses. That's ugly. We want it to drag on. To be boring like this for many days, and then boom, it will explode. So the second scenario is this regular pattern, and it will pop like the others. Is it possible, or is it completely foolish to think about this regular pattern? When you see the liquidity to the north, well, it remains very possible. So yes, it's still accumulating to the south, but there's much less to the south than to the north now for everyone, because it's been significantly reduced to the south, that's normal. And regarding XRP, to finish, it's the ugliest structure because its wick is at -50%, so we can't say it will retest its wick on a regular pattern like this, you see. This thing looks like nothing. Well, it's not too serious. So XRP, we assume it's more or less like Bitcoin because it made an internal running pattern where it broke all of this. So in short, but anyway, since it broke the low like Bitcoin, it invalidates the running pattern. You see, the gap has also been closed. It was closed yesterday at $2.14 for XRP. So I'll remove all of this. So XRP will follow everyone. In short, if it's the C of the great correction. But even XRP, it doesn't have a structure like everyone else, you see. It's quite special in its ugly structure. But well, it's not too serious. In short, there's A here, there's B there, there's C. And so, well, this could totally be the C, and maybe this is the beginning of the C. Maybe it will fall, fall, fall, fall towards $1 to make a nice C. That remains possible. So, either it's the great correction C, or it's the regular pattern, but the problem with it is this wick. You can't say the first scenario, the wave C, yes, that's valid, but the second scenario, regular pattern. Well, no, the regular pattern needs to take the wick there. So what is the regular pattern? A C B C. You see, it's completely awful as a structure. It's extremely ugly. So for the small regular pattern, well, it doesn't have a small regular pattern. It only has something that will aim for either the bottom of the wick, or it's a structure that is broken, you see. So XRP is not great. XRP. Well, since there's a lot of liquidity to the north, it joins Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana. Well, a quick look at the stock market today. So, today it's a bit green, you see. So, why is it a bit green? China, I shared that with you in the news video this morning, last night, China announced that they are removing the reciprocal tariffs they had with the United States for a year, and it takes effect next Monday. They had imposed heavy tariffs, I think it was 40 something percent, I told you that in the video this morning, on a lot of agricultural products, you see, American chicken, well-inflated chicken, and then there were a lot of vegetables too. Well, so they're removing that starting Monday. So, as you can see, the meeting they had with the Chinese is bearing fruit. It's easing tensions a bit between the two countries. That's good news. First good news. Second good news came out at 4 PM. Yesterday, it was 5 PM, but I was on UTC+2, whereas we changed the time. We are on UTC+1, but my phone did it automatically, so I didn't remember. So we are on UTC+1, note that. So at 4 PM today, the Services PMI came out, which represents 3/4 of the American economy, quite simply the dynamics of the American economy, and it came out at 52.4, above 50, above consensus. So, ultimately, it's going well, it's running well, we're rather happy. That's the idea. So that's good news. Now, some will say "Ah, it's not good news for interest rate cuts," but anyway, they didn't want to cut rates in December. So it's rather good news to see that. We're rather happy. You see, the probability of an interest rate cut has decreased. Yesterday we were at 71%. Now we are at 64% because this has decreased the probability of rate cuts. It's logical because the economy is doing well, but the economy should be doing well. So that's rather good news. Okay. And so today, the S&P 500 is in the green, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones, the Euro Stoxx 600, nice green, the tech sector is pushing well. Everyone is happy, everyone is pushing. Gold too, a little green candle, like its cousin silver and its first cousin, copper. Coffee is pushing, oil is the same, Brent is stagnating, wheat is exploding upwards because trade is picking up a bit. Well, MicroStrategy, a timid little green candle, Bitcoin. Well, everything that is crypto-related stocks is a bit more hesitant to take off. And regarding the bond market, well, since the economy showed strength today with the ISM coming out at 52, and that reduces the probability of interest rate cuts, and therefore it simply reduces the number of people buying treasury bonds, because when there are rate cuts, you think "Oh my god, the new bonds that will be issued will be issued with lower rates, lower yields, so it's not great." And so quickly, you go to the bond market to buy for those who want a bit of higher yields. But when they tell you, well, no, they're not going to cut rates anymore, you say "Okay, I'll sell, I'll buy later." And on top of that, since the economy is doing better than expected, people are selling treasury bonds, I think, to go towards stocks, because that's rather good news, so the American 20-year and 30-year bonds are also doing well. And to finish, the dollar, which is still in the green, is currently hitting its 200-day moving average. Look how beautiful the 100-day moving average is. It's so beautiful that the 100-day moving average, I'm going to make it a bit thicker. Please, computer. I'll make it a bit fatter to see it. Here, I'll put it like this. And so it's hitting it. Two solutions. Either the dollar explodes above the 100-day moving average, upwards. We'll have to put on some diapers because that won't be very good news for us crypto people. Second news, it gets rejected by its moving average, and if the dollar gets rejected by its 100-day moving average, you'll have to hold on, because there's a high probability that it will be the validation of the regular pattern. And boom! To the moon. That's it, friends, for this little analysis of the day. We'll see each other tonight for those who want to at 9 PM on the VIP Telegram channel where I'll analyze all your cryptos. I'm sending kisses and see you later. Bye bye.