If You Buy a CYBERCAB How Much MONEY Could You Make?

Elon Musk just said they're on track to let regular people buy Cyber Cab for under $30,000, maybe even before the end of the year. So, the question is, should you buy a cyber cab? And if you do, how much money could you make?

Uber drivers, they trade their time for money. Airbnb hosts, they need to deal with guests, cleanings, and maintenance headaches. But what if you're a cyber cab owner? Well, all you do is add your vehicle to Tesla's fleet and collect checks. No driving, no passengers in your personal space, no showing up at 2 a.m.

Today, we're going to break down exactly how Tesla's pricing structure impacts individual Cyber Cab owners, the revenue share, the utilization rates, the realistic income projections. Because here's what almost no one's talking about. Tesla isn't just building a robo taxi network. They're creating an entirely new asset class. One that compares very favorably to the side hustles most people already know.

So, should you buy Cybercap? Let's look at the numbers. And the person who put together all these numbers is CERN Basher. He is a chartered financial analyst. He runs his own investment advisory firm. It's called Brilliant Advice, providing wealth management services. Welcome, CERN.

>> Hi, Herbert. I think a lot of people are going to find this very interesting.

>> Yeah, this is a very big topic. uh you did a lot of work but uh you did a post on this on X and it's close to a million views so clearly there is touching a nerve here people want to know they want to know should you buy Cyber Cap first of all it's pretty shocking I think that Tesla would even sell consumers a cyber cab or as he said previously a fleet manager should own Cyber Caps to help but there's logic to that uh not just you know Tesla owning it themselves and putting in their robo taxi fleet but here's Elon he says we're going to sell it to someone before the end of this year, $30,000 or less. He doubled down on that. So, let's take a look at your analysis, sir.

>> Sounds good. Yeah. So, the question is, how much money can you make if you purchase a cyber cab? And the reason that we're asking that question, as as you just mentioned, uh Elon uh replied to a post or question from Dylan Lumis uh on the next slide. And Dylan said, Elon, to be clear, the bet was that Tesla wouldn't sell a cyber cap to a customer for 30,000 or less before 2027. are you saying that specifically is going to happen? And Elon said yes. So let's take him at its word and let's run the analysis and see then if you know if you're that customer, what could the economics of a cyber cab be like for you?

Now let's just address the issue of of why would Tesla sell cyber cabs to individuals in the first place, right? And I think there are a number of really good reasons. Um and this is just part of a post that that I did here on that. So, for one thing, um, if you look at the ride share market, you've got people that drive Ubers and they, as you mentioned in the intro, they trade their time for for money. Now, what happens if Uber drivers could actually make similar amount or maybe even more by quitting Uber and buying a cyber cab or two, then rid share goes defunct that much sooner. It accelerates the transition away from rid share. And as we know, rid share has its issues. It's kind of expensive. uh you know women many women don't feel safe for example so that's one thing that's one good reason to put vehicles in the hands of of individuals because Uber drivers could buy them.

>> Interesting. I had not thought of that at all. If uh Tesla rolls out their robo taxi network, Uber of course has and have their ride share eventually this will take over anyway so it's a better service. It's cheaper. But if you sell it to consumers then the Uber drivers themselves will buy it and then maybe somehow that changes the game. Okay.

>> Now, the second one is the capital intensity of this. One of the things that people have worried about is the amount of money that Tesla's going to have to come up with to build cyber cabs, finance this. Now, the company said that, you know, if you have an income-producing asset, it's no problem getting financing. There's a whole asset-backed securities market on Wall Street that should be no problem. But this might allow Tesla to be a little bit less capital intensive. You make the vehicle, you sell it for a small profit. You get that capital back, you make you make more vehicles, you just recycle the capital. So, that's kind of nice. Um, it also allows them to run their production facilities, you know, at capacity. Um, because you've got demand from internally and then you've got demand from from individual customers, which is kind of nice.

A third reason, and I think this is this is pretty big, it reduces the whole monopolistic aspect of this whole thing, right? If Tesla keeps all the money from autonomy, as we'll see in a minute from these models, some of the numbers are pretty staggering, then this is like a giant honeypot for politicians to go after. Now, maybe they can't destroy it, but they could certainly slow it down or cause all kinds of trouble for the company. But if you create thousands or millions of owners, allies in this battle, voters, they're they're going to push back against these politicians who are maybe going after Tesla and saying, "Hey, you're going after my personal income here. Please be careful, right? You're not just going after this big company. You're going after my way, my means to make a living." And I think having that in sort of Tesla's pocket I think is a really important aspect in this.

>> Also as this is what Uber did. Exactly. Yeah.

>> Exactly. Yeah. And also as it relates to the concern that AI is going to put people out of work. Well, here's now a way for people to make money.

>> Interesting. That's a very good point.

>> And then secondly, it accelerates the transition to safer roads. More people will be economically incentivized to purchase a cyber cab and subscribe to FSD. The Cyber Cab is going to be the cheapest vehicle that Tesla offers. So, what better way than to get yourself in a Tesla. Now, you have the added benefit of here of making money from this vehicle. But even if you didn't, even if you kept the Cyber Cab for yourself and your for your family, this is the cheapest way to purchase a Tesla and has the benefit you don't need to drive it yourself. So, that's that's kind of nice.

>> Yeah, it's two-seater though.

>> It's a two-seater. It's not ideal. Uh maybe some families would buy two. The issue is I think Tesla's going to want to make sure that these vehicles that they sell are going to be made available for the robo taxi network. It doesn't really do them a whole lot of good to sell a $30,000 car and have people just park it. That that's not the idea behind this thing.

>> You know, I also think that um the Cyber Cab is just one form factor. They are going to roll out many different kinds of vehicle form factors. They've already shown the Robo van, which is 20 20-seater bus-like, but I think there's going to be, you know, four-seaters, six-seaters, and so forth. And then imagine if I want to have my own six-seater, but I want to deck it out, right? It's like an RV. I wanted to deck it out with all my stuff. I want to own this thing.

>> And maybe I don't even rent it out, but I want to be able to buy this thing for myself.

>> So, that gives me the option to do that.

>> Yeah. The challenge with something like that is that that the vehicle's value is probably like $300,000 if you looked at the present value and you want them to sell you for 30. It's like, okay, you know, so it'll be interesting to see how they deal with this. I I do think there might be some kind of stipulation where they say you have to put it in service so many hours a month.

>> Mhm.

>> That's the deal. We'll sell you this car if you agree to do this.

>> You can use it for personal use. Great. But you need to put it in the fleet for so many hours.

Now, here's another advantage. If we focus on the left side of this chart, this is from New Street Research. Um, and looking at the peaks and value uh valleys of ride share demand. Now, this is ride share. We're actually talking about sort of going beyond ride share, but initially we're talking about the ride share market and you and as we all know, there's peaks and valleys in demand, right? During the day, uh, the morning rush hour, and then you've got the evening, afternoon, evening rush hour, which is even larger. Um, and then you've got the overnight which demand falls off a cliff. The problem is if Tesla has vehicles in its fleet and that's all they do, then they have to have enough vehicles for the peaks and the problem is then you have a lot of unutilized vehicles sort of during the trough. And the beautiful thing about allowing individuals to own a cyber cab is they can be put in service during those peaks and and Tesla can kind of serve as the baseline. The the the salmon and the pink color on this on this chart. It reduces Tesla's capital intensity. So, it's kind of a win-win for both parties. if if there's individually owned vehicles that are part of the fleet.

Okay. The other significant development, Herbert, I think is this is that Tesla's now hiring this robo taxi pricing uh software engineer. Now, by the way, in that first paragraph, what to expect, it talks about um pricing components for different sales channels in every global market, including products like vehicles, megacpacks, solar, power wall, service and parts, and services. It's across the board. This is not just a robo taxi job. So let's let's just highlight that. But what I highlighted there in the middle was um part of the job description to design and manage pricing.

>> Well, first of all, it says here you are part of the core pricing team. And that core pricing team does all of this, but this is specifically for robo taxi pricing.

>> Yes. No, what I'm saying is in addition to robo taxi, it's kind of across the board as as you just pointed out.

>> Yeah.

>> Yep. Um and and what I'm trying to say here is this is actually a very important role. Um certainly software engineers in general but but this person this team is setting the pricing for everything. And as we know pricing is critical and pricing for robo taxi is going to set that balance between supply and demand which is absolutely critical from a customer experience standpoint. The wait time. If you have to wait 20 minutes for robo taxi, even if it's like a dollar a mile, you may say, you know what, I have to get there sooner than this. I can't be waiting 20 minutes, right? So, the pricing is what equalizes supply and demand. We all want to see Tesla price this at a dollar a mile. You know, we know exactly it's a dollar a mile at all times. I don't think they're going to do that, and I think they're very clearly telling us that. If we read the highlighted section, it says, "Design and manage pricing models and algorithms to implement systems that support dynamic and surge pricing." I know no one likes surge pricing, but that's how you deal with imbalances in supply and demand. Incorporating variables such as base costs, taxes, government fees, tolls, market demand, regional variations, and location-specific factors, basically everything. So, they're looking to hire somebody here that can use AI, that can develop a dynamic pricing algorithm that factors in everything in real time. No small feat. This is not going to be easy. But the cool thing is Tesla has absolutely all the data that they'll need to do this. But this is a I think a pretty important role. So, what I'd like to do today is sort of say, okay, let's pretend we're in this role right now with the limited information that we have. How how might we think about designing a pricing algorithm for Tesla and then look at that in relation to if I buy a Cyber Cab, what could it look like for me versus the company?

>> Yeah, I'm sure you're going to get to this soon, but didn't uh Elon long time ago, I think he threw out that yes, we do want to have we probably will need what he called shepherds, fleet managers, uh who will manage a fleet just like shepherds would manage sheep. Uh then he kind of threw I think he threw out the number 7525 which is the fleet owner would get 75% of the fees but we get 25. I don't know how accurate that is but are you'll get

>> I think it'll be a little bit more than that for Tesla and I'll show you why in a minute. Um again to set the stage this is a report that was done about a year ago in June and this was looking at pricing I think it was just in the San Francisco market if I recall.

>> Yes by Waymo Uber and Lyft. Mhm.

>> Right. And you can look at it there in the table format in the bottom left or I did it in a chart there on the bottom right. Between 0.1 and 0.9 miles, the the mile cost was between $30 and $42 a mile.

>> Jesus.

>> Okay.

>> Oh god.

>> Between 9 miles and 1.4 miles, it was between $12.30 to $18.50 a mile. Between 1.4 miles and 1.8, it was between $9 and $13 a mile and so on. Even between 2.7 and 5.8 miles it was between $4 and $6.56 a mile.

>> Yeah.

>> So just keep in mind when we're talking about numbers we're going to look at models here where it's $1.50 $2 a mile. Keep in mind where the market is right now. It's not anywhere near the numbers that we're going to show.

>> Okay.

>> Yeah. This is very shocking because I think the number most people throw out there is that ride hail today, human driven ride hail, so Lyft, Uber, Waymo or Lyft and Uber is $4 a mile. We know Waymo costs more, but actually it's even worse if it's under six miles. It's even worse. That's what people don't remember. Okay.

>> Right. Staggering numbers, huge numbers. Um, and then in the top right, what's your biggest issue with ride share in 2025? Prices. Well, obviously too high. Wait times too long.

>> Too long. And safety.

>> Safety. Right. And that's why able to charge more than Uber and Lyft.

>> Yeah.

>> Right. Um RoboTaxi can deal with all these issues.

>> Ultimately.

>> But not Waymo yet.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay.

>> Okay. So, let's get into it. Let's let's look at some examples. So, we have to make a bunch of assumptions. And there's a whole bunch of assumptions. These are some of them. There's a there's a bunch more. These are some of the key ones. So now we're looking at it from an the perspective of an individual Cyber Cab owner. You've bought a Cyber Cab. What could the economics look like for you? Okay, let's assume that the speed of travel on average for your vehicle in the network over a month or whatever period of time you want to look at is 25 miles an hour.

>> In a dense city, it's likely to be less. In a city where it's a combination of suburban and urban, maybe 25 is reasonable. Let's say the average trip length is five miles. Again, some could be one mile and some could be 30, but we average at five. That the empty miles are 40% of the total miles. Okay? So, if the vehicle drives a 100 miles, let's say in in a day, 40 miles of that is empty. You're not getting paid for that. It's got to reposition. It's got to pick up the next person. Okay. The average loading and unloading time is three minutes. I mention that here because what happens if somebody arrives at a destination and it's raining and they don't want to get out right away.

>> What happens if they're on an important phone call and don't want to leave the car?

>> The car can squawk at them all they want, but that person I think has the right to stay in the car. And my point would be fine, just charge them as though the car was still driving.

>> Mhm.

>> Okay, here's a big assumption. Tesla's share of the network revenue and we'll we'll look at some uh variability in this in a minute but right now for this analysis I'm fixing it at 35%. And we'll look at higher and lower numbers later. That's the take rate that people will refer to. How much revenue? What percent of the revenue does Tesla keep for themselves? You would get to keep 65% of the revenue to cover all your costs. I'm assuming that the vehicle battery life is 600,000 miles. There are discussions about Cyber Cab batteries may last for a million miles.

>> I'm assuming 600,000 to be conservative. I've got the FSD subscription cost here at $199 a month, not $99. Later we'll look if it's even more and later we'll look if it's free. What what that does. I'm looking at vehicle utilization between 30 and 65% and I'll show you exactly what that means in a minute. And then the pricing assumptions, a dollar base fare. So just to get in the car cost you a dollar, a dollar per mile, and then the idle time works out to 42 cents. That's based on the speed of travel and all that kind of stuff. It automatically calculates. So in this scenario, it's 42 cents per minute just to sit in the car. If you want to take that phone call or if you want to wait for the rain to stop raining hard, it costs you 42 cents just to wait it out. And then I'm assuming charging cost because it's at home, right? You own the car, you can park it at home is 16 cents. In some states, it's lower than that. In some states, it's higher. I'm just using what I think is a reasonable uh cost per kilowatt hour for a home-based person. Later, we'll look at higher charging costs and see how that impacts things. Okay, these are some of the assumptions in the model.

All right, usage. What does 30% usage means? Well, it means that 7.2 hours a day, the car is in service. The rest of the time it is parked. It is charging. It's cleaning. It's just sitting there doing absolutely nothing. 7 hours a day only is 30%. Okay. 35 is 8 1/2 hours a day. All the way up to 65% would be 15.6 hours a day. Now, in reality, your car could be in service, you know, 20 hours a day, but you might it might not have a ride. It might be sitting waiting for a ride. So your effective utilization would be, you know, one of these numbers. So you still could have 30% utilization even if you had your car in the fleet for the entire day if it's a slow day. Car is sitting around waiting for a fare. Okay, so that's kind of the way to think about that is is actually how much of the time is the car actually in service even though you've told Tesla it's available to you, you know, 24/7. Okay.

>> What does that mean now then for the number of rides and distance traveled? Well, that's based on the speed in the previous assumption table. So, at 30% utilization, it might be 18 to 19 trips a day and 157 miles traveled. That's well within the the range of the Cyber Cab. So, in that case, the Cyber Cab would only need to charge once a day at home. You wouldn't even need to use a supercharger. As you move up the utilization table, the number of rides grows and the miles increases and you get to a certain point where you may get beyond the range of a Cyber Cab and you have to charge maybe once at a supercharger for a period of time to top it up to be able to, you know, travel 339 miles in in one day. If the if the range of a Cyber Cab is, you know, 250 miles or something or less. Okay.

You will recall Herbert, in previous models, we factored in all kinds of different revenue sources. For this model, I am just looking at trips revenue.

>> Trips revenue. Yes.

>> Pretty much zeroed everything else out or at least minimal. I didn't delete them from the model. They're just minimal slivers. But there's advertising revenue, there's connectivity, there's package delivery, there's, you know, there's all kinds of stuff that could be layered on top of this. For this analysis, I I just decided to keep it completely simple and say it's just trips revenue. Does this make sense economically if we only are charging for trips? Here's on the next chart what the revenue looks like for Tesla and you. Tesla's in red. So at 30% utilization, they're collecting $17.5,000 in revenue based on the assumptions that we talked about. And you're collecting close just over $32,000.

>> No.

>> Yeah. Uh, this is a lot. This is like the the 30% the worst possible utilization rate.

>> Yeah. At a dollar a mile.

>> At a dollar a mile,

>> which is the lowest. I mean, even that dollar a mile thing. I mean, that's crazy cuz that's cost they were talking about that's not price. They'll probably price it at $2, but that's you were just being conservative at a dollar.

>> Yes. I'm I'm going with the current pricing that's in Austin right now, right? Dollar base, dollar mile and saying, "Okay, what happens if they keep it at that level?" I don't think they will, by the way. But I'm just looking at if they do.

>> Well, like you said, there's also surge pricing. So, that dollar is not really a dollar. It also jumps to $2. We've seen it go to $2 depending on situations.

>> But, uh, wow. This is already just blowing my mind right now if this is even close to accurate. If you're telling me that if I bought a Cyber Cab and each year at the worst possible scenario I could be making $32,000 a year. So why would I not?

>> You've got costs. You've got costs.

>> What are my costs?

>> Well, other than the cost of the car, insurance.

>> Yeah. Let's look at the next page. So this is just looking at the 30% utilization scenario. So the borrower we were just talking about, what are your costs? Okay. You're paying $199 a month to Tesla for FSD. So that's like $2,400 a year.

>> Yes.

>> There's the vehicle cost itself. There's the financing cost. I assume people would finance these. So there's financing cost.

>> There's charging cost at 16 cents a kilowatt hour. That's $2,300 a year.

>> Mhm.

>> Okay. I didn't assume cleaning because I said, "Okay, you're going to clean it at home." That's one thing you're going to do as an individual owner is clean it.

>> Oh, you you or if Tesla does it, you'd have to pay them for that service probably.

>> Yeah. But you can see on the far right side is the gross profit of $14,000. You've got plenty of capacity in there for to pay for cleaning every now and then, right? So even if you do pay for cleaning, even if you do have to pay for parking, which I have a zero in here because people would park it on their own driveway or whatever on in the garage, but if you had to pay for parking, again, that would come out of that $14,000 gross profit on the right. You've got insurance. Now, there's two components to insurance. I think Tesla's going to take the liability part and you're going to have to pay for the physical damage part. It's your car. If it gets damaged, has to be replaced, you're going to pay for that from the insurance perspective. But Tesla's going to take the liability side of things. Okay. I've got zero for marketing. Um Tesla's going to handle that. And I've got some other plug numbers for other costs. Um that, you know, a few $1,500 or so a year there. Uh tires is a big one, right? These vehicles are going to burn through tires. $2,800 a year. And then EV taxes and others highly variable depending on where your car is. Another $1,300, $400 a year.

>> That's true. I'm paying $15,000 or $1,500. Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Some some states are nothing and others are higher. So, you know, that that could be a reasonable number. But out of that that $30,000 plus in revenue, you've got a $14,000 of gross profit.

>> Wow. Cernin, you've done you've outdone yourself. This is fantastic. Thank you for putting this together. It's so easy for us to just kind of napkin it, put it together. But actually, this is uh now we've got numbers to quibble with, right, and go, "Oh, yeah, I think I'm going to have to pay for cleaning or I'm not going to do it. I'm going to have to bring it in there." So, okay, plug those numbers in.

>> But thank you for giving this a lot of thought. Uh charging is still 1/5th if or, you know, at least one-third the price of gas. So, if an if an Uber driver can be successful, but again, the Uber driver is charging, they're charging four bucks. This is going to be a dollar. And this is where if it's a dollar, if it's a dollar, that 30% utilization just doesn't seem right anymore at that point, right?

>> Because if it's a dollar, you and I have done many shows. Ark Invest has done a lot of study and report that show that when you get it down below $3, once you go to below $3, it changes who your market is. It's no longer your regular ride share people and that's not a stable thing anymore. It now increases. It can become a instead of an $800 billion market it can become a $3 trillion market it can become even higher market because all of a sudden different people would would use it so then you know I mean more use and then but depending on supply and demand so I don't know but still 30% utilization seems to be the base case worst case scenario.

>> I I think so. I I think so. Um and again.

>> And then this FSD cost is interesting because you assume $200 bucks a month.

>> And I'm thinking and Tesla will charge a much higher price. I like uh somebody brought this up. Was it you who said that they see three different kinds of pricing for FSD?

>> It's $99 bucks a month. What is what they charge now if you use it for personal use. If you want unsupervised means you want to be able to not have to supervise it. You want to sleep, you want to, you know, play games, cell phone, things like that, maybe that's $200. I'm I'm making up numbers, but it's a lot higher than the $99. But then if you want to put it to commercial use, I think they're going to charge you $500 bucks a month because you're making money. So, not only when they said I'll only charge you 35% and we keep 65% or vice versa, you keep 65%, Tesla keeps 35%. Well, actually, they'll charge you the FSD and then they'll charge you extra for the service. Yeah.

>> There's three components that Tesla can manage to optimize it for them. It's number one's the price of the vehicle. The lower the better gets more vehicles out there, creates demand. Number two is the FSD cost. The lower the better, creates more demand. And then the third thing to equalize everything is the take rate. So they could charge nothing for FSD and take a higher take rate of revenue. They could charge a higher FSD cost and take a lower take rate. They can totally manage that balance.

>> Yeah. And and I think what's going to happen, and I think you might have uh hinted at the beginning, if I buy a Cyber Cab, I can decide to just use it for myself cuz hey, I'm traveling to work and back or something. This is going to be my vehicle. So, what Tesla will do is they'll say, "Well, it's up to you. If you use it yourself, here is what you're being charged, but if you the more you put it into the network, the more that not only are you making money, but maybe we'll reduce your cost for FSD or cost for other things." So, they're trying to motivate you to to uh put it into the network if you're not using it.

>> In that case, if you're just using it for yourself, if you're doing the Jeff Lutz method, right? He wants a Cyber Cab just for himself, then maybe they charge you a thousand bucks a month for FSD.

>> Right.

>> Because otherwise that vehicle could be utilized so much more.

>> Right.

>> Yeah. Yeah.

>> Anyway, we'll look at actually that example here in a minute.

>> This is a great analysis. Okay. But even then, worst case scenario, I'm making $15 grand a year. $14 grand a year profit.

>> Yeah.

>> Uh I paid $30,000 for the car.

>> And I'm making $14,000 here. Actually, it's already built in the cost of like vehicle cost.

>> It's all there. Yeah.

>> So it's already that is profit. This is profit.

>> That's gross profit. It's before tax.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. Before tax.

>> Okay.

>> We'll look at we'll look at net here in a minute. Now let's look at the different utilization rates. So same set of charges. Now that 30% becomes the leftmost column. So we just went through that. That's the $14,000 right there.

>> And then as you go to the right, the utilization is increasing from 30 to 35 all the way up to 65%. And at 65% the gross profit is like $40,000 a year.

>> Okay. And you'll see some of these charges don't change with extra utilization, but like tires and maintenance, for example, the cost goes way up as the vehicle is utilized more.

>> Right. So it's dynamically calculating based on the mileage that's being traveled.

>> Mhm.

>> Right. But your financing cost, you know, for example, still the same. The reason that the vehicle cost goes up is because you're going to go through the the vehicle faster if you're going more miles. you're going to have to replace it sooner. So that's why that annual vehicle cost is higher. The depreciation essentially is larger. Okay. So there's a few things here that are variable and a few things that are fixed. But overall the economics here look staggering.

>> Staggering. It's very interesting now that you put it this way because when you think about the way that they built the Cyber Cab very specifically designed for robo taxi, that's what it was designed for. The tire, the cars, it's it's not designed to go beyond I I think the number is 80 miles per hour. It's meant for slow driving, city driving, kind of like ride hail. It doesn't go past 60 miles per hour, you know, even if you're going for a highway, you know, 70 miles per hour, but it's not meant to go beyond that. And so the tires is I'd be very curious how they decided what kind of tires to put in there. They want the low cost, but they want one that can last for a long time versus, let's say, a Waymo who just takes a regular car and they put regular tires in there. And I don't know what their costs become to replace those things. I It's too much. I don't know which is actually better or not. I'm just just pointing out that this was designed specifically for robo taxi use. And so they had thought this through by lower by by the weight of the vehicle, the the fact that it's not meant to make, you know, quick turns, that it's not supposed to go fast speed, the way that it uh takes off and stops, those kind of things. Maybe they've thought through the cost of the tires. Maybe they haven't. Don't know.

>> One of the biggest things is fast accelerations and cornering that burns through tires. And the Cyber Cab is going to do neither of those.

>> Yeah.

>> It's not going to drive. But they're going to be uh checked up every day, I'm assuming, because you know, part of my problem with my past cars is that you just on the one day you wake up, oh, it wasn't aligned. Damn it, that that tire there is a little bald on one side and it's like I should have

>> uh you know, balanced it and rotated it and aligned it. All these things you're supposed to do. Okay.

>> The car can probably self-detect a number of issues, but ultimately they'll have to be inspected periodically just to make sure.

>> Yep. This is a killer chart. Oh my god. I hope people will take a screenshot of this. Uh $41,000 when you got the right utilization rate. Um I like that you thought this through that there's uh more expenses in certain line items here. Uh wow.

>> And depending on where you live, you may have to pay for parking. Uh you may, again, as we mentioned, pay Tesla for cleaning. I mean, there may be some other costs. Um, if you have a small fleet of them yourself, let's say you've got 10, then maybe you spend some money on marketing. I I don't know. I just want to build these things in here so that people can play with it. Um, and again, this is just trips revenue. This is not all the other things that can ultimately be layered on to the robo taxi platform.

>> Yeah. On the revenue side.

>> On the revenue side.

>> Yeah. Now, let's look at it from a net profit side. And in this case, I assumed a 35% tax rate.

>> Right. You live in California or you are a high-income person, you're in a high tax bracket, at 35% the the 30% utilization rate nets you about $8,000 a year. Okay? So, the car is going to pay for itself in what, three and a half years, something like that. Um, at 35% utilization, the car pays for itself in three years. That's that's a pretty good ROI for that type of investment. And then of course the life of the car is going to continue beyond 3 years and you're going to make make that money at 65% utilization. You're almost paying for the car net in one year. Almost not quite $25,000 $26,000 net when you've paid $30,000 for the car. But again, you you've financed the car. So, you know, you haven't really put out $30,000. You you've probably financed it. Um so pretty attractive. And again, this is a dollar per mile fare, which is not where the market is right now. It's much higher. The early investors in this are going to do much better than this in my opinion.

>> Exactly.

>> The fare rates are so much higher.

>> The fare rate will be higher than a dollar for sure. That that seems to be a longer-term goal, not a out of the box, out of the gate kind of thing.

>> Now, a lot of people like to look at these numbers in terms of revenue per mile, cost per mile. So, here's how that looks in a chart. It's about 57 cents per mile. Yes, the fare rate's a dollar, but again, you've got empty miles. You've got the car sitting there sometimes waiting for people to get in and out. You're not getting paid for that. So, it works out to about 57 cents. And your cost depending on utilization range from 32 cents down to 23 cents. And the difference is your is your margin. And on the next page kind of shows that the margin goes from 25 cents up to about 34 depending on utilization.

>> Wait, but that's also dead miles, too, right?

>> Yeah, this this is total miles traveled. It's 34 cents on the total miles traveled, including the empty miles. It works out.

>> Including the empty miles. Yeah, they call it dead miles, I think. Yeah.

>> Yeah. Yeah. I prefer empty rather than dead. That sounds less, less brutal. Yeah. Okay. Now, that's from an individual perspective. Let's look at it from Tesla's perspective to make sure that they're okay.

>> Mhm. So for Tesla's perspective, they get the trips revenue, their share of that, 35% of that revenue, plus they get FSD, and that's the little yellow orange bars on top. That's like the little cream on the top is the FSD amount. And you can see already that even at $199 per month, that FSD revenue is pretty small, right? And we'll go through a scenario here in a second where we take that away and we see what that does. But I can foreshadow that for you and tell you it doesn't matter. that they could if they wanted to give FSD for free and be perfectly fine here. Okay. Um, so that's how it looks from a revenue perspective. And then the next chart shows from a net profit perspective. I I haven't shown all the details here in this analysis because it's too much to go through, but I've I've got that built out for Tesla. Net profit margin at a 30% utilization is like 41%. And it's $8,250 a year.

>> Why is it so low? I I would imagine that the net the profit and margin for a robot taxi network I would have guessed 70 80%. Why is it so low?

>> It is at scale. It is at higher utilization with these assumptions. It's lower. I've got a healthy amount in there for marketing expense. I've got a healthy amount in there for you know maintaining the fleet for building out the infrastructure. All the things that people talk about Tesla has to do. I've kind of built into the model. I think I've been very conservative with that and that brings these net margin numbers down. But you know a net margin of 41% is amazing.

>> No, it's huge. Yeah. No, actually I I want to restate what I was going to say because it's not software only. If it was software only then you can say 80 90% 80% margin. This is a hardware business. This is a car. This is a robo taxi network. You have to bear all this to launch this especially at the beginning. So yeah, 41% makes sense and then 58% is already pretty crazy.

>> This is with Nvidia and Google and those kinds of companies that those businesses.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. So you can see here Tesla's doing pretty well.

>> Again, we've beat this to death, but we're saying a dollar per mile as the price point.

>> Yes. Elon has said a few times now that whenever he talks about we're going to work we've been designing this Cyber Cab and the robo taxi network to get to 30 cents sometimes he says 25 cents when he says those words per mile he's referring to cost to them, not price and he clarified that recently in an interview that that's not the price that's the cost price could be a dollar could be $2 could be $4 that you saw that surge pricing.

>> They're going to price it. Uh my belief is that they're going to undercut the existing out there. Waymo, Uber, Lyft, the choices out there, even probably try to undercut eventually buses. I think he said a long time ago, remember, I want to price it about the same as a bus. And a bus, isn't it at $2? Wait, 25 cents.

>> I can't lower.

>> It's like 25 cents.

>> But but he that's where he wants to eventually get to. It's he wants to undercut the ex the competitors, but he he doesn't need to immediately out of the gate bring it down too low. Or he might just go ahead and just shock everybody and just go a dollar a mile. But I don't think so. I think that there's going to be somewhere in the middle, half the price of what's out there, still very, very powerful, and then still make a lot of money.

>> Y.

>> To fund the whole thing to get it going.

>> Now, speaking of making a lot of money, and these next two slides are for Tesla investors who say, "I don't ever want to buy a Cyber Cab. I just want to invest in stock. Tell me what that means. Tesla.

>> Yeah.

>> Okay. But just keep in mind the rest of the show is for people who are interested in buying a Cyber Cab. But this is for you Tesla investors who want to know how successful this can be. In the bottom there I've got different fleet sizes. Let's focus on the 10 million. Okay. If Tesla has 10 million Cyber Cabs and again this is just Cyber Cab economics here. It's not robo taxi in total Cyber Cabs. 10 million in the fleet. And I'm showing the different utilizations from 30% in red all the way up to 65% in the darker green. How much net income Tesla could earn given the assumptions that we just talked about. Again, a dollar per mile. Okay, the green number approaches like $250 billion of net income. $250 billion of net income at a 10 million fleet. you get to a fleet, let's say, of 50 million, which is probably the number that we need in the United States ultimately, okay, you're looking at close or at a trillion dollars of net income. Worldwide, the fleet might need to be a hundred million. That's the far column. You're looking at one to two trillion of net income depending on utilization. Again, that's a dollar per mile. Okay. What does that mean for the stock? If you go to the next page, if we had just assign a PE of 30 to that on a fleet of 10 million vehicles, that's a 2.5 trillion to 7 trillion valuation on just the robo taxi business using Cyber Cabs at a dollar a mile. Super super low conservative assumptions. If we get to the 50 million, you're looking at 12 to 35 trillion in value. And if we get to the 100 million, you're looking at 25 trillion to 70 trillion. Again, PE of 30, which is super low. The market actually, I think, would assign a much higher PE than this, probably even double. Just to give you some sense of the opportunity here, right? And there's been talk recently about Tesla being a hundred trillion dollar company one day. Absolutely. This doesn't even include Optimus, which as you know, it's an even larger opportunity than than Roboaxi. Okay. So the but yeah but 100 million summer cabs or robo robo vans or robo vehicles is is uh hard for me to consider at this point. Even 10 million seems 10 million seems high. So let's assume that uh in a couple years two or three years I can see if everything goes really really well they pump out lots of factories everything's going well. I could see them doing a million Cyber Cabs a year because they're already producing 1.8 million vehicles now.

>> With existing vehicles. And this is meant to be 1/5th the difficulty, complexity, speed. So theoretically, easily 1 million a year. In fact, you can actually say if they can do 1.8 million now, they can do 10 million. Okay? You know, I just I'm just walking through the logic here. So this 10 million subcabs, people go, that's a huge number. We we don't we only have well we only it took us how long to get to 8 million cars out there now. We're only pumping out 1.8 9 million cars. We only are pumping out 1.8 million vehicles today with the existing three factories we have. But got to remember Cyber Cab built differently.

>> So if you can do 1.8 million regular model Ys, model 3s, what does that mean? How many Cyber Cabs could you do when you catch up to this stage? So yeah, this can happen. Yeah.

>> What do you what's your time time frame?

>> Well, again, I'm not saying this is happening this year or next year. This is longer-term numbers and I'll leave it to the viewer to make their assumptions on how think how fast they think they can grow this.

>> Yeah.

>> I just want to paint the picture of what the opportunity looks like longer term. And again, this is just trips revenue. This is not all the other revenue layers that we've talked about which are significant.

>> Right. And again, it's just a dollar per mile. Initially, I think it'll be far more. So you get actually probably higher valuations in the near term and maybe in the out years at at lower revenue per mile the low valuations maybe a little bit lower.

>> But again I'm using a PE of 30. So maybe the PE originally is 100 and it compresses down to 30. Um that adds more complexity in terms of showing us on a chart. But I think the near-term numbers are probably larger than we realized. And I think that the longer-term numbers at the 80 to 100 million are probably in this range, something like that.

>> Okay. All right. Back to the analysis. Now, we want to take a look at comparing the economics for Tesla versus the individual owner. Because in any analysis, you have

To say, "Okay, are both parties being treated properly here? Is Tesla getting enough? Is the owner getting enough?" And so on. This page, I'm comparing the gross profit, not the net profit numbers, the gross profit numbers. And the reason I'm using gross profit is Tesla doesn't know what your income tax rate is. Tesla doesn't know what your costs are. They can't really do much about that. But the gross profit number, I think, is something that they could probably model in reasonably and sort of check to see whether that's fair. They know what they're charging you for the car and for FSD, and they probably know in a given area what your electricity costs are, right?

So the question is, at 35% "take rate," at these different utilizations, is this fair? Well, at 30% utilization, you and Tesla are earning the same gross profit. And the little line above that says one, the ratio is one, that you're earning the same. At 35% utilization, you're earning 6% more than Tesla is.

"I'm earning 6% more, not the other way around."

"Correct. The blue line, which is the individual gross operator's gross profit, is 6% higher than what Tesla earns."

"Ah."

"In this model, in the way we've modeled it here."

"Yeah."

"And you can see as utilization goes up,"

"That ratio goes up a little bit. It maxes out at 21% more. Is that fair? Should Tesla make more than the vehicle owner?"

"Yes."

"I'm of the opinion they should make a little bit less."

"This is what you're saying here that the vehicle owner would make more than Tesla. No. No. As a Tesla owner, a Tesla investor, I do not want that to be the case. Um."

"Okay. So, this becomes a key question then. And the question is, what should Tesla's take rate be? Recall, in this model, I've used 35%, which is already more than the 25% that I remember Elon saying a long time ago."

"But no."

"We'll dive into this a little bit deeper towards the end, but just keep this in mind. Okay, so we're looking at kind of the fairness of the two here. And"

"Fairness is a very, you know, murky topic. What's fair?"

"If you have kids, you know what I mean?"

"Um, right. Okay, let's look at another scenario. Um, now we're slowing down the speed of travel to 15 miles an hour. So maybe it's a more dense urban environment, and the trip length is three miles instead of five. But now your fare per mile is $1.50 instead of a dollar, and your charging cost now was more like supercharging cost, like 35 cents. Again, this is variable depending on where you live. Um, but I've bumped up the charging cost here because you're in an urban environment. Okay. Um, you have to use a supercharger per trip for every charge, otherwise everything else is the same. So let's just isolate on these four things that I changed and see what the economics looks like. Does it materially change things? Not really."

"Right. It's at 30% utilization, it's $12,000, and recall it was $14,000 before."

"It's actually close to $13,000. And at 65% utilization, I think it was $40."

"And it's now, let's call it $39. So there's a very, it's very easy to kind of, you know, get the desired outcome in this model depending on what you tweak. But it looks attractive either way in this scenario. Now, let's jump to the chart again where we're looking at fairness. That one."

"Um, at the lowest utilization, Tesla's making 1% more than you are. At 35% utilization, you're making 6% more. At 65% utilization, you're making 23% more. Again, to me, this doesn't look like a terrible outcome. The robo-taxi owner is making slightly more than Tesla is under all utilization scenarios. That doesn't seem crazy to me. Now, Tesla could tweak this so that it's equal, so that we're, you know, they're 50/50 partners with their fleet owners. Fine. It wouldn't change the economics that much, right? And I don't think anybody would complain about that if they did that."

"Mhm."

"Okay. And that's again the opportunity for the person in this role to sort of manage this. Okay. Let's look at a third scenario where now the only thing we're changing."

"Well, you know, before you move on, uh, certain, you know, very curious. I think you did this analysis a long time ago, so I don't expect you to remember it, but what is Uber's business model today? If you take the driver and Uber's take, you add them up together, what percentage of that, what's left over?"

"Not much."

"Yeah. I don't know where I was going with this, but I was going with because in this scenario, Tesla should actually be Uber and should have the physical driver take. Now, the owner of a car gets something. So there's a piece of that driver take that the owner should have had. But, um, okay."

"Yeah."

"Now let's go to $2 a mile from $1.50 and let's look at the numbers again. Everything else is the same."

"Okay."

"Okay. Uh, so the next chart then shows you're looking at $21,000 at 30% utilization. That was up from $13,000, I think, last time."

"And $56,000, up from $39,000. So you can see how sensitive this is to the dollar per mile assumption."

"But very easy for for Tesla to tweak this on a real-time basis to get the outcome that they need. Think of a joint AI algorithm that knows for every single vehicle, you know, what the economics are, and then it optimizes pricing for that. That's doable. Now, I should say here that I think it's also possible that Tesla develops a system that doesn't necessarily give you the revenue from just your specific car. Let's say your car is unlucky on a given night and it's idle the whole night because it's just in the wrong place. Should you get no revenue for that? Or maybe you should share in the revenue from the people in your area."

"Right. There's a collective kind of aspect to it that would be another way to do it. That way you minimize the risk of your cars in the wrong place at the wrong time."

"Right. And they may pre-position cars as best they can, but, you know, it just so happens they pre-position mine in a place that no one needed it."

"So, I haven't modeled that in here, but just understand I think that they could include that."

"Incredible thinking because right now, how does it work? Uh, with Uber, basically the individual Uber drivers, they kind of like decide on their own, don't they?"

"Yeah, they're out there in their own place."

"Yeah. Okay. I'm going to go to, you know, the middle of the city because I think that's where it is. But then everybody's there. And if or the airport, they all love to hang out at the airport, but too many people and you're waiting too long, and then they have to like learn their lesson, and then some of them go, 'Okay, you know what? I'm going to try a place where I think nobody's at or something like that.' Yeah. It's like it's like gambling on their side. But very interesting thought."

"And they haven't even thought of that one. Yeah."

"Now, let's look at what I call the fairness chart on the next page for this scenario. Again, this is the $2 a mile one. And you can see in this case that the owner is making a material more amount of money than Tesla is, between 30 and 42% more. In this case, I think you could argue that Tesla's take rate could go up. And that's why I think the take rate may be a dynamic feature of this. I don't think there's a fixed take rate that Tesla charges. I think it could very well be a dynamic thing in this model, just like everything else is. Okay."

"Now, a lot of people have asked me a question, Herbert, is what about rural cyber cab? Will that work in rural situations? Let's look at that. Now we've got average speed of travel up to 45 miles an hour. Your trip length is 25 miles. Empty miles now I'm assuming 100%. So if you're going 25 miles, you're coming back 25 with no passenger. The worst-case scenario. Okay. Um, and then I've got base fare at $5. Because of that empty miles, dead miles amount, you got to charge more just to get in the vehicle because it's already traveled far just to get to you. So they charge you $5 just to get in. Not crazy. What do the economics look like for this?"

"Not bad."

"Still pretty good."

"Right?"

"Yeah. Yeah. $21,000 at the low end, at 30% utilization, gross profit, and gross profit at the high end at 65% of $57,000."

"Mhm. Okay. Not bad at all. So, this works not only in cities, it can also work beautifully in rural situations. The CyberCab is a car for the entire world. Now, it may not work so much for, you know, 300-mile trips or whatever between cities, but, you know, for longer trips, it can certainly work out or reasonably long trips. Okay. What does this look like on the fairness chart? Pretty good. The owner is earning between 7 and 15% more than Tesla. Again, I look at this and I say this is not a bad scenario for both parties. Both of them are making a lot of money here. Okay. All right."

"Now, let's look at the take rate situation and let's figure out what the optimal take rate is. So, I'm kind of back to my original assumptions, but I'm taking Tesla's share of the network revenue, the take rate, and I'm looking at between 15 and 50%. What does it look like if we go between those extremes? And in this scenario, I'm just looking at the 35% utilization rate. So this is the second column that we've been looking at, 35%. Okay, base fare of a dollar, the fare price per mile of a buck. We're just trying to isolate what's a good take rate for Tesla given these assumptions. Okay. And you can see here on the next page, um, that gross profit ranges between $29,000 and $95,000 at the higher take rate. So 15% here now is Tesla's take rate. So if Tesla's take rate was only 15%, you would make $29,000 in gross profit. You would be happy with that. And we'll see in a second if Tesla is. And if Tesla takes 50% at the other extreme, you're making $9,500 in gross profit. Okay."

"But I think the fairness chart kind of shows how lopsided all this is on the next page. So at a 15% take rate, you're making 269% more than Tesla is, right?"

"369%. Well, in percentage terms, yeah, 3.7 times as much as Tesla, or 269% more. Um, is that fair? I don't think so. At 20% take rate, you're making two and a half times what Tesla's making. That doesn't seem fair. At a 25% take rate, you're making 1.7 times. Doesn't quite seem fair. So, I don't think 25% is the right number in this scenario. It's 30%, you're making 25% more. Okay, that's not terrible. If it's 35%, Tesla's making a bit more than you. It's not terrible. I'm okay with that. If Tesla's making 40%, 45%, and 50%, and I'm making, you know, look at the difference there. That doesn't seem fair. They're making way more than I am. So, I think the take rates are going to be between 30% and 35% was where I would guess on average they'll end up being."

"Isn't it funny how Elon already kind of knew this years and years and years ago?"

"Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Now, let's look at this, Herbert. If FSD subscriptions are free, what happens? Okay. Give it away. What do the numbers look like?"

"Yeah."

"Doesn't make any difference. The numbers go up a little bit because you don't have to pay for that anymore. FSD cost now is zero. So the numbers have gone up by the savings. Otherwise, everything's the same."

"Where does it show up here where your cost is? Oh, the very bottom. There you go. Thank you."

"And in that case, I'm on the next page, I'm showing Tesla's revenue chart. I've taken off the cream on the top. I've just got the trip revenue."

"Okay. And now we can look at the fairness chart again. And we can see that you probably have to have a 35% take rate before it's kind of in the ballpark of being fair. Maybe 40% if you think Tesla should make more than the vehicle operator. So they could give it away for free and increase their take rate. They could charge $1.99 for FSD, lower their take rate, and get to kind of the same place. Okay, so those are the tools they have in their tool chest."

"Let's now look at the scenario where the FSD cost is $1,000 a month, $9.99. Right. FSD is so good. This is allowing you to make money. We're going to charge you for the software because, you know what? We spent billions and years developing it. We should get paid for the software."

"Yes."

"Right."

"So, here are those numbers. In the 15% take rate, you're down to $20,000 of gross profit. Not bad. But if the take rate's 50%, your gross profit is negative. You're not making any profit. If Tesla charges you $1,000 a month for FSD and takes 50%."

"So, it's up to Tesla to how they market it, how they position it. That's really it. They can say they might, I think they might just do that. They'll just say that the FSD is so good, I'm going to charge you guys a thousand bucks a month just marketing-wise, but then they'll take, they'll bring down their take rate down to 35%, 30%, 25% maybe. And then."

"Yeah."

"Same thing. Okay."

"And if you look at the fairness chart on the next page again, you can see that in order for this to be fair, the take rates have to be between 15% and 20%."

"Yeah. Okay."

"Right. Now, Tesla could, by the way, say if you buy a CyberCab, our take rate's going to be, you know, 35%. If you buy two, our take rate is going to be 33%. If you buy three, our take rate is going to be 30%. They could incentivize you too on that way and take less and less the more you buy."

"So, there's all kinds of ways that they could use the take rate to incentivize behavior. But I wanted, what I wanted to do here is show it at the extreme, what this looks like. And by the way, this is at a dollar per mile. If you flip to the next page, Herbert, it looks very different if it's suddenly $2 a mile. Their take rate now can be 30% to 35% again and still charge $1,000 for FSD per month and still get a 30% to 35% take rate and still be fair for both parties. So again, it depends on what the revenue per mile is. All right. There's so many different variables here that we can play with, and I'm trying to isolate on them, but I just wanted to show you that going from a dollar per mile to $2 changes the nature of this chart dramatically, not to mention $3 or $3.50 a mile like it might be in the early days. Okay."

"We've gone through a lot of numbers, a lot of charts. Here's some kind of summary. For 100 plus years, right, or more, people have earned income by selling their labor. With a CyberCab, you buy the machine, it works thousands of hours per year for you while you sleep, particularly if you sleep during the day. Most of the activity is going to be during the day. We can all become sloths, I guess, right? So, it, what I'm saying here, it's a structural shift from wage income to capital income. Not that everybody's going to quit their job and become CyberCab shepherds, but more and more people can because this is a huge market opportunity. It also allows what I call the micro-entrepreneur, right? You've got entrepreneurs now that have Airbnbs that work in the gig economy, right? But now you've got another opportunity. If you invest $30,000, you can own this asset that produces this income for you. So, it kind of democratizes entrepreneurship even more than it is now."

"Yeah, but if you carry this forward and, you know, these analyses, that's why it's so critical for everybody to see this, and they will. It's a no-brainer for people to buy this car because you're not actually shelling out $30,000. You're financing it."

"And assuming the network is successful, it's going to start making money, and then therefore, there's going to be just every CyberCab will be bought by whether Tesla owns it or they'll sell it. It'll all be bought, and it's just a matter of like, you know, did you get lucky to get one?"

"Yeah. It's interesting, isn't it? Because when you go to the bank and ask for the loan, instead of asking what your income is and all that kind of stuff."

"It's really just, you know, oh, it's CyberCab. Oh, okay. The income's going to be there. We understand how this network works. Here's the money. Take it."

"Right. So much less the credit decision is not going to be based on that individual. It's more the asset that you're buying. This comes back to why wouldn't Tesla be the one to finance you? Why I'm just so confused why Tesla will even still do this? I know at the very beginning."

"You came up with your points of why they would do this, and I'm still kind of like, okay, I get a couple big ones, you said."

"But is it enough to get people to own it as opposed to just doing it themselves?"

"The economic opportunity is so large, it makes sense to share the wealth. If you don't share the wealth, you are a target and you will be destroyed. So, they'll probably do both, which is they're going to own a ton. And you heard the CFO say that he said that we're ramping up CyberCab business this year. We're going to go to the market, basically borrow money, loans against our future revenue. Why are they doing that? Because they need to pay for the cars themselves. They're going to build the cars. They're going to cost that. So there's a, you know, a little bit of it that they'll go and say, 'Okay, I'm going to sell it to consumers,' but it's not, it'd be interesting to see, do they sell all of them? No. Do they keep 50% of them and sell 50% of whatever they can make? Probably not. I'm still thinking that they'll probably sell 20% of it, and then this will be like, yeah, some people will get access to it, but not everybody. And they'll be, it's just too obvious of a business model. We'll see how this turns out."

"I think Tesla ideally maintains kind of a base level fleet that operates, you know, 24/7."

"Yeah. That they own. Yeah."

"Yeah. And then layer on top of that for the peaks and the, you know, for the peaks, the individually owned and the fleet-owned vehicles."

"And they already promised that anybody who owns a Tesla, we've already bought our regular Teslas, Model 3s, Model Y, we should be able to put it in also to make money. So."

"Yeah."

"But I think that our cars is the four-seaters, and they will, they are 5% of the because the statistics is that it's 95% 90% of all rides is one person, 5% is two people. So 95% of all rides is two or less. And so you should have enough CyberCabs and CyberCab owners to put it in. But the other 5% that's us who already have our Model Y and 3. So we want to put it in. So."

"Yeah. And by the way, the economics for the Model Y and 3 are very similar to this. Not quite as good because those cars are a bit more expensive, but still very good."

"Yeah."

"Um, and same thing with the Cybertruck, too, by the way."

"Um."

"Yeah."

"The final thing on this page, Herbert, this redefinition of car ownership. So, think about how big the real estate market is. Now, a big part of real estate is home ownership. Fine. People are not buying that for a return on investment. Some do, but people basically say, 'Well, I've got to live somewhere. I'm not really too worried about my actual return on investment.' They hope to make money in their home, but they're not buying it based on that. But the real estate rental market is huge, and it is an ROI-driven market. And we now will have an ROI-driven market for vehicles for the first time in history."

"Okay, let me say that again. For the first time in history, we're taking a depreciating asset, an asset that is torched at the end of its useful life, right, recycled for scrap, and it's turned into a return on investment. So imagine, for example, if you bought a house and at the end of 10 years it was just burned down and you got nothing for it. The economics of that would be very different than what the economics are of real estate today. And we're moving to that with vehicles. We're moving to like a real estate-like model for vehicles. We've never had that before. Right now, the useful life of a vehicle is going to be a lot less than the useful life of a building. I get that. But the economics are so attractive in spite of that. And again, we've used very conservative assumptions. 600,000-mile life versus a million. And all the cost assumptions that we had, the fare assumptions, I think were very low. And the numbers are pretty impressive. Now, the last slide, Herbert, I did a little poll on X. Uh, 1147 people voted, and actually the results of this actually were kind of astounding. Um, 7% of people said that they would not purchase a CyberCab. Now, obviously there are people out there that didn't respond to this poll that aren't going to buy a CyberCab as well, but just for this small sample, 20% said they would buy one. I thought the majority say they would buy one. The majority said they would buy between two and five."

"Wow. Wow. 37.5% and 35% said more than five."

"Yeah. Of a thousand people, 35%."

"Yeah. And now despite the fact that your audience is primarily Tesla investors, they're already really all in. They all bought into this. Still, that is pretty shocking that, uh, of that. So they're probably wealthy, these investors that your audience of the thousand who responded. So you got to take that with a grain of salt. Still, the idea being."

"There's a huge demand for not only one CyberCab, but so if you add them up, what is it? 20, 37, 35."

"It's over there on the right."

"It's over there on the right. I did the math if you add up the ranges. Um, yeah."

"Tesla, if they, Tesla had an ability to order CyberCab today, this poll could have generated between 3,000 and 8,500 orders from a thousand people."

"Right. It's, yeah. It's you're gonna, it's like a lottery ticket. Can you get lucky to get one?"

"They won't be able to produce enough to satisfy the demand."

"Well, that's, they need to ramp up production. The unbox method. Hopefully, they can spit these things out, you know, one every 5 seconds. Um, that's going to be the key. But I think these things are, it's a groundbreaking opportunity. The early investors in this have a massive opportunity to make a lot of money. The return on investment will come down over time, but I do think it's going to be very attractive for years and years and years. Um, in addition, then over time, we're going to add on additional layers of revenue, and that I think eventually I think that Tesla will be able to offer rides for free, and they'll make more money from deliveries, advertising, all the other things we've talked about. Eventually, if you want to, you could probably charge nothing for the ride."

"I was going to say this. So, you, we all, the entire show was whether or not if you should buy a CyberCab, how much money will you make from it? How much money will Tesla make out of it? We both understand that the whole mission is to save lives and stop the 44,000 people dying each year. Stop in the US, stop the 2 to 3 million people massive injuries every year. But, but that, you know, you did that one with the rural. I can very well see Tesla saying, 'You know what? For rural people, we'll still charge you a dollar a mile. We'll eat that cost. It's a service.' It's almost like how they offer Starlink to countries that need it."

"You know, it's like you, you make so much money on the big cities, and then you offer it as a better service for the rural so that they don't have to pay so much. I can see things like that happening too because it's a mission-driven company. But boy, it's like a win-win-win-win for everybody. Uh, this is going to be crazy."

"It is a win for everybody. It's going to drive down transportation costs for everyone. It's going to create income opportunities for people that want it. It's going to create opportunities for investors and Tesla stock and other, you know, associated companies that are part of the whole robo-taxi ecosystem. Um, it's good for everybody. It's the transition is going to be a little painful from a political standpoint because you've got folks like the Teamsters out there against it. But I think the weight of history supports this transition. We've already seen it before."

"Yeah."

"Right. And it will happen here, and society will benefit from it."

"And when autonomous delivery of products, not only your Amazon products, but eventually the semis that is going to dramatically, I think you did a show on this a long time ago, didn't you?"

"For, we did one on robo-trucking for sure, but the cost of goods will fall because of transportation becomes autonomous. You know, when transportation becomes near zero, it's a significant, what I can't remember the number, 30% plus of your price of your bananas and all that is because of transportation costs. Some of that goes down when you get to autonomous transportation. This is where that's where we're headed. It's one of the pieces. Um, okay. Well, so you had Elon confirmed just a couple days ago that we, they do intend to sell to consumers. $30,000 will last the end of this year. So, this analysis you just did was so important because this is happening because I, as much as I keep debating, well, why would they do it? Why wouldn't they do it? They're doing it. Uh, I can see the reason because you can make it up. You sell it to consumers. So you, you, you, you, um, you're but you have to give them a cut of the service, but you're still, you're doing both. You're getting, uh, financing, monthly financing plus the cut. What you've shown me today is there's so many levers that Tesla can do regardless if they sold it to a consumer versus keeping it ourselves. Uh, there are so, it just, the benefits probably outweigh the negatives, and there's probably more as we haven't covered yet, but you did in another show, of other than revenue of ride-hail, there is other revenue that they can make. So even if they sell the car to a consumer and they get a cut of the revenue, the ride-hail, there's other services that they can get 100% of. Entertainment, um, you call it experiences or, you know, transaction prices when you go to a Starbucks, premium services, access."

"Delivery."

"Yep."

"Working."

"Um."

"Yep."

"The, the, yeah, it's just so much. Maybe you're the one that's going to do the charging at your home, and therefore they take advantage of this, you know, like they don't have to build as many superchargers because if you're talking the volume, we're talking about 10 million CyberCabs in the US. Well, now the superchargers will be over full. And so what you need to do is instead of building more superchargers, hey, use your home. Those are distributed charging systems already, like I do."

"Yeah."

"The other added benefit, by the way, is in the morning when the CyberCabs are starting to go out and get rides."

"If they're starting from a place around the corner from where you live, it's there instantly. But if it starts from a depot where Tesla is maintaining its own fleet, it takes a while for all those CyberCabs to proliferate through the city."

"It's traffic. Uh, they're all like, you know, 10,000 of them all in like each of the depots. No, no, no. If this, like I would have one in my home, you'd have one in your home, and then it takes off there from there."

"That's right."

"Boy, this is so much fun. It's, I, I said this a few days ago, but I can't believe we're actually talking about this now."

"It's real and it's coming like within months."

"And so, we do need to evaluate it. Like, you know, we did shows on this two years ago, three years ago. Now, it's reality. You need to dust up your old shows and add up the numbers again."

"Yeah. Well, I've had a chance to refine some of these models now for a while, and it's been interesting to see how they evolve. But some of the early work has certainly still standing."

"It's been accurate. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah."

"Thank you so much, CERN. Uh, so what we covered today, right? If you buy a CyberCab, utilization rate, you'll still make money. It depends on how even it doesn't matter how much Tesla decides to take rate, you take rate, cost of FSD, you're still making money."

"The funny thing and the final thought I have on this is let's say you worry about whether, you know, Tesla's going to treat you fairly. You can hedge yourself, and this is not financial advice. You could hedge yourself by owning Tesla stock."

"Yeah."

"If they make excess money, then you benefit that way. You could hedge yourself by buying a CyberCab. If CyberCab owners make the excess money relative to Tesla, then you benefit that way. You could hedge yourself. If you believe in robo-taxi in general, that's one way to play both sides of it."

"Are you buying a CyberCab?"

"I would like to buy a fleet of them. As you know, I previously have ordered 75 Cybertrucks. Uh, I still have 74 of them out on order. I haven't done anything with them at this point. It doesn't seem like there's any benefit to maintaining those orders, but I would probably consider flipping them into CyberCab orders at some point. I wish I lived in a rural area or someplace where I can dominate. I can see a lot of competition here. So."

"Yeah, there's going to be tremendous opportunity in all kinds of places."

"This is unbelievable. Thank you again. I always thank you, and the audience does as well, CERN. You do an amount of work here. This is a lot of late nights you put together. I can see from these, uh, these tables, graphs, analysis, spreadsheets, you do it. Thank you, sir. Follow him on his X account, @Cern_Basher, and then check out his financial advisor firm, BrilliantAdvice.net. Thanks, everybody."

"Thanks, Herbert."

"I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbertalm.com."