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[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you are in good spirits. I am very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video this Saturday, October 4, 2025, in front of a slightly green crypto market. This is because over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has almost made a new all-time record. Last night, since the opening of this new daily candle here on Saturday, October 4th, we see that it is slightly green, especially for altcoins. But it's nothing at all for now. Will it be a rather flat weekend as usual? It remains possible. On the stock market side, it closed rather mixed. Be careful because we still have quite a few magnificent companies, also some old tech giants if you like, that are a bit red. Nvidia, Google, Meta, Amazon especially. Amazon is not looking good. So, the Nasdaq closed slightly in the red, the S&P 500 on the very edge. Why do we have a somewhat mixed market like this? I told you about it yesterday, we have the ISM Services, which is a macroeconomic figure that gives us a bit of the health of what represents three-quarters of the American economy, which is the services sector, and it fell to 50. Know that just below 50 is recession, hello recession, good evening, and above 50, things are going well. It fell exactly to 50, so you have two camps. There is the camp of those who say it stinks of recession and so they are starting to slightly withdraw from the market, to take a little profit to be prudent. And then there are those who say it's fine, we are not in recession, the index is at 50, we are just above recession, barely, and then finally we will have lots of rate cuts to boost things. So it's great. I'm buying. So we have these two sentiments in the market. That's why gold is being bought back heavily and stocks continue to be supported. Now, be careful.
As for cryptos, as usual, I sent you a rather detailed analysis on the VIP channel this morning. Don't hesitate to check it out. So, the latest news: Bitcoin flirted with a new all-time record. It's crazy because last Friday, it was at $108,600, and instead of breaking its low, boom, it exploded to almost $124,000. So it gained 14% in a week. The total crypto market cap is $4.210 trillion. That's very good. So, what's causing this surge? What are the bullish catalysts? Well, ultimately, the paralysis of the American government, the shutdown as we call it, because they haven't agreed on the budget between Democrats and Republicans. So, boom, all the federal employees are at home on partial unemployment until the budget is voted. And that has been rather good for Bitcoin because since the shutdown, it has gained 8%, which is quite a lot in a few days. Well, another catalyst that came out yesterday caused a big surge, and it's Trump who made a rather funny statement. Analysts tell us that Bitcoin's progression, the new all-time record, seems natural with Trump's announcement to send a check to each citizen between $1,000 and $2,000, financed by tariffs. Well, of course, that's a rather bullish event. Because you tell citizens, "Here, I'm going to give you between $1,000 and $2,000," and many of them will also use it to invest in financial markets. So, in short, whenever there's magic money falling from the sky, boom, it's bullish. So, in addition to the shutdown being bullish, Trump wanting to give between $1,000 and $2,000 to each citizen is rather bullish. That's why risky assets like cryptos and stocks are still in "going up" mode, even if stocks have stagnated. It's still in bull run mode. So all of this stimulates appetite for risky assets, quite simply. Can it continue? Yes, it can continue.
We have on-chain data here that shows strong demand, especially from Americans. To know who is driving the market, it's clearly the US on two levels. First level, it's with the Coinbase Premium. Now, Coinbase is the biggest exchange there in the US, and so the Coinbase Premium Gap is positive. It measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and the price of Bitcoin on, for example, Binance. Binance, which is more of an exchange outside the US. And so we are almost at $92. That is to say, American retail and professional investors pay $92 more for Bitcoin than, for example, us. It's funny, they want to buy it so much that there are buy orders. Now, a small drawback, we need to be careful because the last time this gap was this high, it marked a market top. And then there was a small correction. Well, will it be the same this time? We don't know. Just be careful about that. And the second thing that is also driving all of this is ETFs. ETFs that have accumulated billions and billions. I'll show you that. And here's the second piece of news: it's pushing, but you still need to be a little careful because Cryptocount, which I like a lot, says it has become a frenzy for Bitcoin futures. The net buying volume has increased and now exceeds the net selling volume by about $8 billion. What you see here is the frenzy of opening long positions. In short, what does that mean? The market is going to the moon, and many investors are saying, "That's it, I'm opening my big long position with 1000x leverage because it's going to the moon and I'm going to become a millionaire." So, there's an astronomical quantity of long positions being opened, and when there are large quantities of long positions opened, what does the market do? It punishes. For example, you see here in September, on September 25th, you see quite a few longs were opened. Bitcoin at 114, and boom, it dropped to 108. You see, there were also a few longs open for Ether, as it was still at 114, a small drop to 113, and that's pushing the astronomical quantity of longs opened. So, be a little careful. They tell us, "Aggressive long positions have been piling up in the market for a few days." So, is it possible that the market, it's not a big deal, it's so bullish, so many people are buying that it's pushing, and these longs will become profitable? Or will the market reverse to eat these longs and, for example, go for the famous gap at 110,000? It remains possible. It will all be a battle between sellers and buyers, as usual. That is to say, as long as buyers can withstand the pressure, it will be fine. And for now, they are succeeding. For example, the second thing I showed you, the first was the fact that the Coinbase premium is positive. That is to say, many people in the United States are buying for real. There have been many longs opening, but behind that, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $2.25 billion this week. One of the best weeks we've ever seen. So, on one hand, there's a lot of buying, which is good news. On the other hand, there are a lot of longs opening, which is bad news. So, if there are profit-takings to go where, to the long squeeze to target these longs, will the selling pressure be able to contain a famous correction to target these longs? We'll see. Knowing that here, remember when we looked at these liquidations, there was a cluster of liquidations between 118,000 and around $121,000. So it went straight for it. Now, it's encountering small sell-offs. We have some not very pleasant sell-offs at $124,000. The biggest ones here are exactly at $125,000. Now, will the market reverse to go and eat this cluster? Knowing that throughout the rise, there have been quite a few longs opening. So, here is the biggest cluster, the most significant one, between approximately 108,000 and 106,000. But of course, there are some in between. So, we will follow this closely. In short, it will always be a balance between buyers and sellers. If sellers want to go after all these longs, but if buyers on Coinbase continue to buy and buy, they won't be able to. So, we'll see. Will the bullishness be stronger than the act of eating these longs? The answer will come soon, I think.
And to finish, in the United Kingdom, the UK SEC, the Financial Conduct Authority, has announced that they have lifted the ban on crypto ETNs. A ban that had been in place since 2019. So, starting Wednesday, trading will begin. However, be careful, these are ETNs, not ETFs. ETFs are like what we have in the United States, they are financial products listed on the stock exchange. You buy these ETFs as if you were buying a stock, and behind that, BlackRock, Fidelity, those who offer ETFs, buy the underlying asset. The underlying asset is Bitcoin or Ethereum, for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. And the same for other ETFs, Solana and the like. Now, ETNs are different. They are debt securities, so they are futures contracts, and the underlying Bitcoin or Ethereum, they can put whatever they want. So, in short, it's not the same thing. It's still a derivative, it's still futures contracts. So, it's not great, not great. So, BlackRock is studying solutions to offer ETNs, but the underlying asset will not be Bitcoin. This means that those who buy these debt securities and futures contracts, BlackRock will not buy Bitcoin behind them. So, it's still a derivative to play with, to put it crudely, but it's not ideal. Now, it can be good for those who want to hedge, which is what many large portfolios do. They buy, for example, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then they short futures contracts. This allows them to hedge. If there's a big drop, you've shorted the futures contracts. If there's a big rise, your portfolio goes up, you lose just the premium, it's not a big deal. But the problem is that there are ETNs in the UK, but there's a lack of exposure to cryptos. You need both, often both go together. So, let's hope the US in the UK will unlock this. So, Taylor from Cryptoek tells us, "We hope this initiative will improve consumer protection, and we will continue to advocate for the lifting of the ban on retail investors accessing highly regulated derivative products." So, I think when he talks about consumer protection, it's that these options allow you to short when you buy the underlying asset directly, which is Bitcoin or Ethereum, to hedge. Yes, it allows for hedging. That's the idea.
And on Friday, the FSA took no action regarding ETFs, which is what we would like. Because with ETFs, they buy the underlying asset, which is Bitcoin. And so the FSA stated that while several respondents called for retail investors to have access to ETFs, yes, BlackRock and others are saying, "Come on, release the ETFs." Retail investors in the UK cannot invest directly in crypto assets under the current regulatory framework for funds. Yes, we understand, but we would like it to be unlocked. Both need to go together. If both go together, then large investors will be able to buy Bitcoin ETFs, thus gaining exposure to Bitcoin, the underlying Bitcoin, and then short futures contracts, and then they will have a nice little balance that they like. And yes, that can bring in money, but when ETFs are not available, well, it won't specifically bring in money because I can't imagine large investors buying Bitcoin directly themselves and shorting futures contracts. They don't do that often because they want to stay in traditional finance. They won't bother, they won't create an account on Binance.
So friends, this little news video this morning. I hope you enjoyed it. I send you kisses. Have a good day, and I'll see you later for the analysis video. Bye bye. [Music]