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The 100% rush here loses 90%, you know. >> It's not the start of the cycle, better to use the money to buy something else. >> So, you can only aim for whether the Fed will continue to lower interest rates. >> It will drop another $300. When it drops sharply like this, it takes a long time to form a base. >> Bonew depends on that, gold won't rise. Gold bars won't rise. It has to be the opposite. >> So, if you ask if it's over and gold will rise, it won't. But it can form a base to support it. >> As of today, the market is gradually changing its perspective. The interest rate hikes are gradually being priced out, coming out, coming out. It can break through 4,200. What's waiting ahead is a big surprise. Will you buy? Sell it off then. Gold right now. So, there's no more of that. That kind of Q4 last year, oh, being able to intervene, it's gone. The Fed's independence is being questioned, which is over. We will definitely rise, probability 100%. Like this. But this is not the case. Not entering futures or not having the ability to pay margin immediately. This is forced. There's no chance to correct. If you rush too much, it's very dangerous. >> The point at 3,500 will be the point where it breaks out. It's here. When gold falls, it will fall to the point where it previously broke out. When it falls sharply, it takes a long time to form a base. Forming a base for gold, before a big rally, takes at least half a year. Because when it falls this much, it needs to form a base for a long time. It's just a matter of whether it will use the 4,000 point or the 3,500 point as a base. >> So, if gold is to rise, gold bars must only aim for whether the Fed will lower interest rates further. That's it. Those who play with gold bars must use these factors to make decisions. >> If we look at the case, if it's twice, then it will multiply by 4 and drop another $300. It will return to the level I remember, around 3,500-3,600. It was a support level for a while. It should be quite dense there. >> The reason for America's policy to encourage gold trading 24 hours a day is because no other profit is as good as this. Before the first interest rate hike, gold would rise in anticipation, pushing gold to the price where people become fearful, people lose hope in gold, people say they don't want it anymore. This is a condition similar to 2015. So, I will enter at the beginning of the cycle. That is the beginning of the gold cycle. Not my beginning of the cycle. I won't enter. Better to use the money to buy something else. >> Because if this support level breaks, there will be immediate problems. It can fall as much as it wants. The next important support level will stop at 3,000, then 3,200. This is unlikely to happen. If it happens, you have to cut losses. Thailand Gold Summit 2026, the biggest gold seminar in Thailand, is now available for rewatch. >> Most people trade gold, 95%. >> Why are they losing money? >> A crisis is the best time for you to convert cash into valuable assets that are depreciating. >> You can watch the full replay of all Main Stage Sessions. For more details, follow Z Event. >> Actually, the current period is volatile, and some things are not unusual at all. There's no reason for the baht to weaken today and strengthen. Oil is falling, which is normal. Gold should rise. Instead, gold is falling too. Stocks are also falling today. The market has adjusted by 500 points. Foreign markets have fallen by about, oh, over 40 dollars. That's quite a lot. Normally, when oil falls, gold rises. >> Gold should move in the opposite direction. But today, for the past 2-3 days, it's been reversed. The price is uncertain because right now, the policy is just to stop shooting, then pause, then do something. It's unpredictable. And the strait also feels like there are tense events, maybe shooting at ships, Iran's goods. It makes things a bit tense. But I believe that in the short term, I think the gold price will be volatile. Analysts, including us, are confused because most of us can't predict it. Sometimes the theory is that two words for gold should be half, but it turns out this time it's not. The more words, the stronger it gets. >> The more it rains, the more it halves, causing the gold price to move in the opposite direction. But no matter what, I think the gold price will remain volatile in the short term. But looking at the one-day chart, it's close to $4,000. I think the support level is quite strong. The lowest is around 3,990 something. The average is that at the fastest, it might be $3,800. It has never reached that. So, I still think $4,000 is a reasonably strong support number. >> Therefore, I still believe that no matter how these news are analyzed, in the long term, I still see opportunities for it to halve. And in the short term, I think this period is volatile. Because nowadays, trading futures in the international market is 24 hours a day, non-stop, all year round, no breaks. The reason for America's policy to encourage gold trading 24 hours a day is because no other profit is as good as this. You, you, I told you to be intentional. Because the capital is intentional, it's like opening a casino for them to rush all the time. It's income. I think those who rush futures, rush forwards, rush for profit, most of them, if they lack experience or don't have cold cash, are more likely to lose. Therefore, nowadays, they open 24 hours a day, no breaks. Everyone is hoping for profit. But no matter what, I think those who invest in the long term may need to be more careful. The gold price may become volatile. Because right now, the association is still studying. Because the gold futures market is open on Saturdays and Sundays, but for Thailand, we don't have exchange rates. Therefore, there are many exchange rate changes. For example, today the baht weakened by 11 satang. The price of gold in baht, compared to the weakening, is over 200, almost 300 baht. That's quite a lot. If the baht changes by 20-30 satang, oh my, it's hundreds. Sometimes it's more than the gold price itself. Therefore, investors need to look at two things. To look at the gold price, you need to look at the spot gold price and the exchange rate. Because when the baht weakens, it will affect the gold price due to the exchange rate. >> Yes, Khun Jitti. Since the 24/7 trading opened on July 24th, what has been the impact on the gold market? >> Well, it's still not familiar yet because in Thailand, the markets that are open are still... meaning, one, on Saturdays and Sundays, there are no exchange rates. And most of the online markets and things like that are still preparing, still preparing how to adjust. But there was a price adjustment once on Sunday. >> There was one price change, and normally there isn't. Because we have to observe for a while. Because the Asian market is still new. We don't know how to handle it. Everyone thinks they need to prepare and observe for a while. How the Asian market will adjust to 24-hour trading like the international market. Because in Asia, during the day, Europe is also closed. So, we need to see how it moves. We need to get used to how the market moves. I think in the initial period, it's hard to grasp. But no matter what, the price of gold may rise. Because trading futures, it's different from before. It used to be 100 ounces, 200 ounces. Nowadays, it makes it more liquid. It might make the market grow. >> Is this a positive or negative impact on investors, Khun Jitti, or on gold traders? >> Personally, I think it's more of a negative impact. Because in China, in the past, banks did not allow trading futures, forward markets. Because most of those who trade, trade gold bars. The chance of losing is greater than winning. Because you observe the market. Because this forward market is not real gold. It's gold bars. You can sell gold bars forward. So, the risk is very high. If it's not cold cash, and if you don't have experience, and if you don't study the information well, the chance of losing is greater. >> On the other hand, won't this also make the market more volatile, Khun Jitti? From what people think, instead of the market being calm, this will cause volatility. >> Yes, that's for sure. If you buy real gold, it's not that volatile. If you don't have gold, we sell it. If you have enough money, if you have large capital, they can dump it once. Trading one day, it's thousands of tons. If it's real gold, trading is only about 4,000 tons per year. In the futures market, sometimes thousands of tons are traded in a day. Therefore, it can create price momentum, not the real market information. >> Yes. So, from Khun Jitti's perspective, what advice do you have for investors in this changing market environment, where trading is now 24/7, and in the global futures market, which will certainly affect the movement of the gold market in our country? >> It does affect real gold. And I think it will continue to be traded a lot because it makes it smaller, making the number of traders increase. Therefore, I have interviewed Khun Jita before, saying that those who trade futures, forward markets, must be careful and not have too high expectations. Don't trade excessively. Because sometimes prices are dumped, or there are market trends. If you have to pay margin and you are not ready to pay, you will be compensated immediately, resulting in losses with no chance to recover. Therefore, a little bit, maybe 2 times, 5 times, 10 times is very dangerous. Because most of the time, I see that those who trade 100% lose 90%. They traded futures. Two months ago, there were measures to prevent banks and large players from taking over the futures market. Because the losses here are enormous. Therefore, trading requires experience, sufficient funds, and a strong mindset. If it's different from buying real gold, and you make a mistake, it's a mistake because the futures market makes the volume changeable. It can create momentum. Therefore, those who are stuck with cold cash, leave it and wait for opportunities. If you can't pay margin for futures or forwards immediately, you will be forced to sell. There's no chance to recover. If you trade excessively, it's very dangerous. >> If I had it, I wouldn't. If I had it, at $4,000, I would sell. Not only would I not buy, but I would also sell. If the Fed raises interest rates, it might be beaten down. Today it dropped to 3,500 or I don't know. I would have bought it. But since it's not rising, the market has no leader. Waiting ahead, there might be a big surprise. Will you buy? Sell it off then. Gold right now. If it's still at $4,000, sell it. If I had it, I don't have it, but if I had it, I would sell it off right now at $4,000. >> But it's not the cycle yet. Not the cycle. What kind of cycle, P'Natta? >> I don't know. But why hold onto it? Because it's waiting to be beaten down ahead, right? If it's going to stand and rise, it will be very difficult. I haven't seen a scenario where they will play gold again. It has to be like last year, when the Fed intervened. But this time, even if it's a child, it's not 11 people. So, there's no more of that. That kind of condition, that Q4 last year, oh, being able to intervene, it's gone. That was the best condition for gold in my life. Since I was born, or maybe not yet born, the best. And it passed the Fed. >> Yes, the Fed's independence is being questioned, which is over since the court ruled Lisa Cook's case that the Fed cannot intervene. That's it. That's gone. This time, I interpret it as 11 people, not Trump's children. Even if Trump's children deliberately do it like Milan, they won't. But if they do, it becomes Milan. No one cares. >> So, it's still one voice. >> Yes. So, there's no more of that best condition for gold. So, gold is not... even if there are conditions that help it not be too bad, it's not a player anymore. You won't see gold like the end of last year anymore. That personality is gone. It's over, for me. So, I don't know why I should hold onto it. Better to sell it and use the money to buy something else. So, if I had gold, I would sell it off right now. But I don't have it, so I won't enter. But if, like on Monday, you said that if interest rates rise, gold will fall sharply, you would buy. So, if that condition really happens, will you buy gold? >> Yes, I think I hope I can do what I said. Because I set that condition. I believe it's true. The first time the Fed raises interest rates. Before the first interest rate hike, gold would rise in anticipation, pushing gold to the price I like. And with the environment, people will become fearful, people will lose hope in gold, people will say they don't want it anymore. This is a condition similar to 2015. So, I like to enter at the beginning of the cycle. That is the beginning of the gold cycle. Gold has nothing else. For me, if I compare gold with interest rates, I will enter at the beginning of the cycle. That is the beginning of the gold cycle. I interpret it that way. I will only enter at the beginning of the cycle. If it's not the beginning of the cycle, I won't enter. >> The beginning of the cycle is when the Fed raises interest rates. >> The first time. Yes. Or like, if it's definitely going to happen, probability 100%. Like this. Before that, yes, enter immediately. But this is not the case. Probability is not the case. There are no surprises. So, you don't enter. Where is the price you like? >> I don't know. The price is not the target. I only look at the conditions. The environment. I set the conditions. If these conditions are met, then at any price, it's that price. I don't care. >> Okay. So, let's look at the condition of the Fed raising interest rates. Let's look at the conditions. Now, we are in a "higher for longer" situation until the second half of 2026, right, P'Natta? >> Yes. Don't forget. I'll tell you honestly. I will never expect anything like that. Oh, we will have interest rates this high for a long time. Then yields will have to be this high. I will deny it. When I hear this, I will deny it in my heart and say it out loud. Because this is my assumption. My assumption is that they won't allow it. If refinancing is too difficult, if borrowing is too high. If special measures have to be taken, they have to be taken. If a crisis has to be created, it has to be created so that refinancing can be done. Therefore, I will not assume that interest rates will fall in the future. >> Yes, to lower interest rates, to create a flight to quality, to have people flock to buy, to enable refinancing, a crisis or special situation must be created. Otherwise, it cannot continue. You have to fund your debt, you have to pay. This is my strong assumption. That yields on bonds, like in America, and including Japan, the two of them together, cannot let them rise indefinitely. When they reach a key level that we think is critical and too high, I believe there is a high risk of special events occurring in the market when yields rise. So, I will not be complacent that yields will continue to rise. I think it's not the case. >> Yes. Has this assumption ever been back-tested and proven in the past? Like, has there ever been an event that became a crisis? Was it a special event that occurred to suppress yields? Why do you have this hypothesis? >> Just look at the key levels that have risen. Something will happen. You can look back. I didn't conclude today. When it reaches the old high or the upper boundary of the trend line, it's important. Why is it a trend line? >> When it becomes a trend line, look back. It's like this. When it reaches that point, something happens that pushes it down violently, right? >> So, some formula is created. For example, before, we used an inverted curve or something like that. If it's not that, then something comes from an event. >> Yes. Therefore, the trend line is important because people look at similar things. They look at that. >> And when the time comes to take action at the boundary of the trend line, it makes people believe more easily, right? >> Uh-huh. >> When the time comes, people flock to buy. Similar to pension funds, they have to wait to buy around. But when something happens that makes them agree, it creates a boom. >> So, refinancing can continue. Otherwise, it can't. Ask yourself, what if it doesn't fall? Then what? How to refinance? >> Yes. Finally, P'Natta. Recommendations now. We have to watch the market's behavior. We have to see how the market will act. Will special events occur? What is the current portfolio recommendation, P'Natta? >> I recommend high-quality fixed-income assets, both domestic and international, combined. Actually, I have something to believe in, but you don't have to. >> Yes. >> Uh, high quality is the main thing. Not less than 30%. >> Yes. >> This is down from 40%. Not less than 30%. >> Yes. >> And then, I only have Chinese stocks and Thai stocks. Chinese stocks are the main ones, and Thai stocks, I'll wait for the right time to enter. There's still room to enter Thai stocks. >> Yes. >> Thai stocks are something I like very much. But I want good prices. If the market is like this, maybe there will be good prices. No need to rush. Chinese stocks are the main ones in both markets. That's it. >> Yes. Why do you like Thai stocks? And which sector do you like in Thai stocks? >> These two are structural improvements, not sectors. For China, I see it as an AI-enabled country. An AI-enabled country is a country that owns AI technology. It has advantages in certain minerals. It's not that America and China can be 100% self-reliant, right? Both sides still have to rely on each other somewhat. If they don't rely on each other, we might see invasions or something like that. It's good to rely on each other somewhat. But they are becoming more self-reliant. And technology is developed at a low price. There might be massive energy subsidies. That's an advantage. Minerals, etc. And AI, the concept is low price. So, I expect it's not just a technology sector. It should benefit everyone, increasing productivity, reducing losses, etc., according to the concept of AI inclusive code. And another thing is increasing the proportion of consumption over 5-10 years. A strong currency, the Yuan, is evidence that it must be done. Because consumers will have more purchasing power. This is a structural change, being an AI-enabled country, self-reliant in AI at a low price, and increasing the proportion of consumption in the long term is a strong theme. For Thailand, Thailand has stable politics. I've been seriously interested in Thai stocks since the September 2025 deal. I've been investing in Thai stocks, entering early, not caring, because when politics is stable, reforms can be made. At a certain point, I'll buy and wait. If it's not done yet, it's okay. But Thai stocks, hold them, check profits, find opportunities to enter when they dip, and buy in a lump sum. You can use the SET 50. You want to cover everything. If, for example, the market is now perceived as an uptrend, mid-cap and small-cap stocks will be good. Because people realize the market is in an uptrend, they will look for opportunities, rotate in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. They will try to find good fund managers in small caps. It can be an active fund. Just two funds. Collect Thai stocks for the whole market. And enter when it's low. Enter when it dips, and keep doing it. It's called structural change. Structural changes in both places. And avoid anything that has risen too high and will have to fall. I think the American side has gone too far. If you enter here, Thailand, especially China, has an advantage in price. That's it. >> Professor, gold has now risen again. Professor has observed gold since before, whether it has finished falling or is in a reversal phase. What are the current technical analysis signals for gold, Professor? >> The war is in the support zone. Guitar, look at the support first. For students 4+1, we look here. It's the previous low from 2025, October 2025. Gold made a support level here. On the timeframe, it's at 4,000. Let's call it support. Support and reversal signals are different things. Support means if it doesn't break this level in any given week, it means the support is working. Support means it comes down and is received. We only look at the closing price. We choose the support first. This support, the support that occurred in 2025, is called support. It's the area where it had upward momentum to 5,400, meaning it's an important support. We are speaking technically. Those who don't understand technical language won't get it. And every time it falls, I've heard many times people say it broke 4,000, broke 4,000. This means the closing price at the end of the week, not during the day. We see that the first time it fell to 4023, it didn't break. We started to break. What people said broke, it fell to 3959. It broke. But the closing price was 4,088, meaning it didn't break. So, everyone understands what "break" means first. It's the closing price. >> Yes. >> Friday, end of the week. That's the clearing price. If it doesn't break, it means someone doesn't want it to break. Not us, definitely. Because we might be the ones shorting when it broke 4,000. >> Yes. >> How many times have we shorted? 4,000. The second time, we shorted again. It went down to 3945. After breaking, we shorted again. At the end of the week, it closed again. 41 and 4. We were hit twice. We were hit by $200. The next week, it fell again. But it only fell to 4042. We didn't short. This time, we didn't short because it didn't break. The fourth week, one month, it fell to 3560. We shorted again. We were hit again. It bounced back and closed at 4018. Last week, it broke again, 3983. We shorted again. It bounced back again this morning. See? We need to understand what "break" means. It means the closing price at the end of the week. Not during the day. >> Yes. >> Support is very important because it can make gold rise from here by 1,500 dollars in one go. So, it's an important support. If this support breaks, there will be immediate problems. How much will it fall? The next important support will be at 3,000, then 3,200. This is unlikely to happen. If it happens, you have to cut losses. They say if it can hold for many weeks, meaning it stays above 4,000 for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 weeks. This area suggests that it might be an early bottom. But gold bottoms usually have two bottoms. There's no single bottom. So, to answer whether it's over, we can say it's estimated to be 50% or more. Is it important? It's important for TF traders, futures traders. If they don't understand this, it means it won't go up yet. It will bounce to at most 4,200, 4,300, and then fall back to 4,000. It will have to test, test all the time. Why hasn't it gone up yet? If it's about gold bars, it depends on the Fed. It can't fall today. We see that the stock market is falling. Stocks are being taken. Semiconductor stocks have fallen by 40%, 50%. Money is not flowing into bonds. Because bonds, yields, or rates, they haven't fallen. Rates are still rising. If yields rise, bond prices fall. This means bonds are being sold. This means money is not going into bonds. It will go to the dollar. It will stay in the dollar. The natural flow of money is that bonds are the most valuable asset in a country. It's the government bond of that country. It's the most valuable thing. But this time, money is not flowing into bonds. So, where will it go? It's not going to gold. If we say Bitcoin, Bitcoin is too small. It's only 2 trillion. It's not that big. There's a comparable asset, which is gold. Will it flow to gold? If it flows to gold, gold should rise further. This means money is still circulating. In the AI group, maybe it's going to the power sector, accumulating those to drive it up further. This means money is still in stocks, but in different groups. Because data centers, AI, cannot be completed without enough power. Power must come first. Then software, hardware, etc. It will require electricity in the next phase. So, money is not going anywhere. It's still in stocks, but maybe in stocks related to energy, power. So, looking at this, bonds are rising. Therefore, gold won't rise. Gold bars won't rise. It has to be the opposite. So, if you ask if it's over and gold will rise, it won't. But it can form a base to support it. It will be a base that is acceptable, meaning it's not that it will rise. But if yields rise, rates will also rise. It's at the highest zone. See? Rates are rising. Take the bond yield, subtract the expected inflation, and you get this. You get the real yield, which is still rising. Therefore, bonds can only fall if this falls. For example, if it falls by 0.25, rates will fall immediately. If rates fall, it means inflation must fall. If we look at this, inflation has a downward trend. See? The trend is not the trend, not our inflation, but the Fed's inflation, expected inflation. It has a tendency to fall. >> So, if gold is to rise, gold bars must only aim for whether the Fed will lower interest rates further. That's it. Those who play with gold bars must use these factors to make decisions. Not like us who trade gold futures. We trade gold futures using a system. What does our system say? Overbought long, over-sold short. What are we doing now? Overbought long. This means we have been long on gold since Friday night, zone 402-4031. We closed it this morning. While others said it broke 4,000 and shorted, we went long. We have done this about 20 times. If it's like this, we have been long for almost 10 times. Because we trade futures. We follow our system. See? It fell below 4,000, we went long. It went up, overbought, we shorted. See? Each round, $100. Shorted, then $100. $100, $100. I don't know how many times. We make a living from 4,000. >> Yes. >> And the latest, we went long again. We didn't look at the price. We looked at this. You can go long here, 4049. This morning, we closed at 4100. We made $50. And we shorted tonight and closed. Because we are here for two days. We are here for two days. We closed. We shorted, we closed. And then we will play again. Because we play short-term. This area is not long. People with gold bars, it's not like that. I just explained that for gold bars, in the long term, you can wait. Because yields haven't... >> There's no opportunity for it to fall yet. Because inflation hasn't fallen below 2%. Therefore, the Fed won't lower interest rates. Now, the question is, will gold futures, paper gold, rise, and gold bars won't rise? That's impossible. They will rise together. So, to summarize what I explained, the fund flow is still in stocks, but in different groups. Maybe it's shifting to the power plant group. Because building power plants is a big job. From now on, for the next 1-2 years, investment will be in that direction. >> Yes. Professor, but if you invite Professor. >> So, gold is about this. Trading gold, gold futures, is still short-term trading, called portfolio C. It doesn't mean that if we go long, it will go up to 4,500, 5,000, like that. That's not the case. But for gold bars, you can accumulate if you can wait. Because it's not going to rise yet. It hasn't indicated a rise yet. If it's gold bars, it's about this. You can still buy. If you think about it, you're not buying at 5,400. You're buying cheaper than those above at 4,500. So, don't be afraid if it falls to 3,500, 2,500. It's okay. Because ultimately, no cycle where yields or rates are high will not fall. It falls in two ways. First, inflation pushes it down. The direction of interest rates must be said to be from high 5, and then down. The Fed's interest rate is currently 3.3.5. This means the trend is down. But it might only go down to 3, not 1 again. The reason the Fed can't lower it much is because the Fed's balance sheet still has a lot of Q remaining. Lowering interest rates too much is impossible. Because if a problem arises, if the economy experiences deflation, it cannot be stimulated. There's no money to inject. Because you borrow money, you inject money, Q into the system, and there's still 7-8 million dollars remaining. That's a lot. This is something to understand. Sometimes you don't need to understand. But understand a little if you want to be in the global investment system that is linked to us. Real yield will be the game-changer, the game-changer for gold. Because if the yield on bonds is good, why would we buy gold? This is what the market is waiting for. Will yields rise, or what is the direction in the future, Khun Poo? >> Yes, as Khun Gan said, recently, it depends on which inflation figure we use to subtract from the nominal yield. For example, if we use core inflation, it has started to slow down recently. Therefore, from the perspective of real yield, it's not helping gold. I think it's not rising due to fundamental stories. So, it's not a theme for it to rise due to fundamental stories. And the risk of it adjusting upwards further depends on the inflation figures. If the figures come out and are still the same, but the market starts to fear that the Fed might be serious about raising interest rates. Even if inflation doesn't accelerate much, the market starts to worry, "Could the Fed eventually have to raise interest rates?" This will be reflected in the nominal yield, which will gradually rise. >> It might rise due to the term premium, as you said earlier. It might drive this first. Overall, real yield will gradually rise. So, the risk of real yield rising, I think in the short term, there is. It might even last until the Fed meeting in September. Because from today until the Fed meeting in September, it's about a month and a half. We will see about two more inflation figures. That is, July's inflation and August's inflation. And along the way, the situation is still unpredictable. So, there's a risk that suddenly the market will price in more Fed rate hikes. This will be a factor that pressures gold through the real yield. So, in summary, the risk of real yield rising. >> Is there? I think there is. >> If it returns to the theme like Khun Gan said, like in the past cycle, when the Fed kept raising interest rates, and then at a certain point, the golden time for gold began, which was when the interest rate hike cycle ended. That's when. >> Entering or investing in gold will have low risk. This is similar to distilling. If, at a certain point, the market fears the Fed's rate hikes so much that they think the Fed will raise it three times. I don't think there will be a fourth time. If it's a fourth time, it's unlikely. >> If the market starts to see three times, I think that will be the point where, even if the gold price dips, it will be a point where I think the price has already absorbed these issues to a considerable extent. It might be an interesting point from a fundamental perspective. The Fed's rate hikes. There's a chance it's already priced in. Whether the gold price will actually rise is another matter. But it's something that has been priced in. >> Yes. The peak of market perception of Fed rate hikes. That might be a golden opportunity to buy gold. But today, it hasn't arrived yet, has it, Khun Poo? >> It might still be before. Because I think it's almost... as Khun Poo said, shorting last night. There was one instance where the market saw about 80% chance of two rate hikes. It can go up further. Imagine if the market continues to price in. We can roughly calculate the numbers. Khun Gaa, Khun Gan. For every adjustment in market perception that the Fed has a 50% chance of raising interest rates, or 0.5 times. Let's use the number of times, it's easier. 0.5 times will pressure the gold price by about 2%. Conversely, if the market prices out 2%. If I calculate roughly, it's about $80. Let's use a round number, $80. This is possible. Therefore, we will get a number close to what Khun Gan said. For example, today, if the market gradually changes its perspective on interest rate hikes, gradually pricing them out, it can break through 4,200. There's a chance. From today, around 4,000 something. If the market prices out about 50% or 0.5 times, it disappears. Gold rises. Or conversely, if we look at the worst case, let's say twice. Round numbers. Twice. It will multiply by 4 and drop another $300. $300-400. It will return to the level we discussed before. >> It's a support zone in the previous period, right? Maybe we can add to the technical perspective. I remember around 3,500-3,600, it was a support level for a while. It should be quite dense there. It's an interesting point. If the gold price really reaches that point, will we dare to buy? >> Yes. Interesting numbers, Khun Poo. You see the downside potential at 3,500, 3,600, 3,700. But if it's priced out, 4,200 might be broken through. Now, let's look at the precise technical side, Khun Gan. If we consider the range Khun Poo mentioned, with technical analysis, where is the downside and where is the upside for gold now? >> Okay, I'll try to show you on the chart again. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> At the point of 3,500, which Khun Poo recommended earlier, it will be the point where it broke out. It's here. This area. Here. This is the point where it broke out. So, it will be the point. Normally, when gold falls, it will fall to... >> It will fall to the point where it previously broke out, approximately. Like now, why is it here? Because it's the point where it started to rise initially. So, it's here first. You can see it. They play it simply like this. It's quite easy to see. Like this. This is the point where it broke out. Broke out means it's stuck. If we zoom in, it was stuck many times back then. Stuck here, again and again. It was almost half a year. And then it broke out. It was stuck at 3,500, then broke to over 5,000. Now, it has become a major support point. This point. So, I have to say it's a major support. >> So, we can look at it in conjunction with. >> Technical signals, like RSI, which is oversold. Because gold, if it falls on a daily chart and becomes oversold at 30%, it will always bounce back. So, every time it falls, it will be good. This is looking at it in a way that's easier. Like, we set a target. If it's around here, don't be afraid. If it falls, the more bad news there is, the more it's worth buying. Because the selling pressure should be lighter. If it falls here, it's interesting. >> Yes. But if it falls here, it means it has fallen to the starting point of the entire large cycle? >> When it falls here, normally, to form a base, it will take a long time. When it falls sharply, it takes a long time to form a base. Forming a base for gold, before a big rally, takes at least half a year, every time. >> Yes. >> So, it takes a long time to form a base. Like now, I still think it can't rise much. Because when it falls this much, it needs to form a base for a long time. It's just a matter of whether it will use the 4,000 point or the 3,500 point as a base. There will be a base formation point. If the news isn't too strong to push it down much, it will form a base at 3,500 first. >> Yes. >> No one dares to sell. I myself am a trader. I wouldn't dare to sell here. Seeing indicators like this, seeing buying pressure, it means selling, but it's not falling. >> So, you have to quickly cover your shorts, which stops the selling pressure. Wait, wait, wait for the market. So, this point is considered a base. For 4,000 first. If there's strong news and it falls to 3,500, if it can form a base at 3,500, then buy again. I think the main points for this year might be just these two points. >> Yes. >> And if we look at two scenarios, Khun Gan? If it forms a base at 4,000. >> Yes. >> How far can it go? But if it breaks 4,000, it can't hold. It will fall to form a new base at 3,500. What is the upside potential? >> Uh, the upside for 4,000, I think, as Khun Poo saw earlier, there will be 4,500. 4,000, 4,200 are the main resistance levels, definitely. >> Yes. >> And if it breaks through, it will be around 4,500, 4,600. Because it's the high point of many past cycles. 4,500-4,600 will be the resistance point. 4,000 is the main support. You have to break 4,200 first. If you're still hesitant to buy now, afraid of something, wait until it breaks 4,200, then follow. It's simple. Then you can follow. You will see buying pressure following. >> Yes. We can play there too. And near 4,000, the support level, right? If it breaks, if it falls below 3, something, meaning it breaks 4,000 and falls. Where to find a stop loss to end it? So, if it breaks 4,000, breaks 3,900, something like that. Just in case there's a sharp fall. It can be considered a stop loss point. And then wait again. If it forms a new base at 3,500, buy. Like that. This is also a main support point. As for rising in a way that it goes to 5,000, I still don't think so. Not yet. I still think the same. Not yet. >> Yes. But in the last cycle, it started at 3,500 and went up to 5,600. What will make this cycle different, Khun Gan? The reason it's different, I think, is that news about interest rates must end. It must end. If it's still looming like this, there will still be problems. From my perspective, considering the fundamental factors as well. Currently, gold demand is slowing down. Normally, we see a lot of ETF demand from central banks, right? Right now, it's positive. In the first half of the year, the latest World Gold Council report just came out today. ETF demand has increased slightly in the first half of the year. It's not negative. Seeing the price fall a lot, but the real demand is positive. It's slightly positive. This means they are still buying gold, even though the price has fallen a lot. Central banks, in a while, Khun Guitar will see that they have adjusted. The World Gold Council has announced that central banks are finding it difficult to track, so it seems they are buying less. Central banks themselves are buying less. This might start to be announced soon. Why are they buying so much less? Because they are buying from commercial banks. They are buying a lot of gold from commercial banks. >> Let's say, overall, demand has not decreased. Overall gold demand is about 3,000-4,000 tons. For the whole year, it's still the same. Supply is also the same. It cannot produce more than this. So, production plus recycling is about 4,000 tons per year. This means demand is still the same. It's constant. So, everything is constant. So, for gold, there's no need to worry about supply. Everything is normal. >> Yes. But right now, I'm only looking at the news. I'm giving all my weight to interest rates. Only interest rates. How much will it absorb? What is the trend? If it falls, it will fall to 3,500. If it doesn't fall, it will pull it up, but it won't break 5,000, approximately. And it will form a base for a long time, several months, until everything is over. Then it will go up. 6,000, 7,000, we'll talk about that later. >> We'll talk about that next year, Khun Gan? >> I think a new high will be next year. We have to finish this issue first. >> Okay. Clear. In terms of technical analysis combined with fundamentals and news. Let's close with Khun Poo. In terms of portfolio allocation, given this interest rate environment, this dollar environment, this bond yield environment, what is your recommendation for allocating gold in the portfolio now, Khun Poo? >> Yes, P'Taa. We will use the view from Krungthai CO. We see gold as an asset that can help diversify portfolio risk quite well. It may have lost some of its ability recently because it has been correlated with the interest rate theme to a considerable extent. But overall, if we hold it for the long term, we still recommend that clients have a proportion of at least 5% to 10% in the portfolio. As Khun Gan said, it will rise when the interest rate theme starts to change. As we discussed, our base case is that the Fed will start lowering interest rates, which should be the picture for next year. So, before the market starts to look at this view, I think it will be around the end of the year or even early next year. Therefore, for gold to rise beautifully, I think we have to wait. But does its function in diversifying risk and reducing portfolio volatility still hold up? Let's say after September. Why? Because we want the Fed's interest rate theme to not be about raising interest rates, which will be a factor that pressures gold and keeps it correlated with risky assets. So, after the Fed meeting in September, we will be more confident that gold will return.
To perform the duty of diversifying risk well, it should be present. Otherwise, the Bonds in our base, I think customers can gradually buy gold Bonds. As for other assets, Guitar, I have to explain like this. Stocks, stocks, we still see them as overweight, but it's more about market selection, Guitar. That is, we will choose from the perspective of the United States and Japan as the main ones. But if you ask about the United States, do we invest in Big Cap or just Sunter? No. We will start diversifying away from these groups. So, it might be a theme that follows the growth of AI. Atar, we try to cover the entire supply chain. Currently, what we see as still having value is Power Battle Next. It's a Power Battle Next theme that we see Power Grids and various things are still growing well. And it will meet this demand. As for the quarter, it's still okay, but I think we might have to try to avoid those with high volatility for a while. That is, the Scenic gang or Samsung. But the advantage is that it seems to go back to the technical aspect that Kan mentioned at the beginning about gold, that it's about positioning. I think this gang has been sold off and margin called quite a bit. Therefore, the market positioning in this group will start to be less tight than in the past. This means the chance of seeing strong correlation will start to become less. And it's a good point. And in one aspect, it also benefits gold. Because recently, we found that gold itself has a relatively high correlation with the simulator gang. >> It might be about adjusting portfolios, adjusting positions. If you are sold off, you have to reduce the risk of the overall portfolio, and gold is also affected. When these things are sold off a lot, they will be sold off even more. I think it will decrease because the cross-section or people's positions have disappeared a lot. That's why gold was saved a little. Therefore, it's a perspective where we still buy stocks, but not the big gangs we are familiar with. As for bonds, Eta, I have to say it's neutral because there is still interest rate volatility. But we will choose markets, such as the US side. Long-term bonds are considered good because yields have risen a lot. Or in the UK, bonds have also risen a lot. Bonds in our country, or even 10-year bonds at 2% or more, are considered buyable. But don't expect them to give very good returns like in the past year. It's not yet that cycle to see bond yields decrease. And the returns from bond investments will not be spectacular. We will only get high carry. If you want to see good bonds with decreasing yields, I think 1. If it's a base case, you have to wait until early next year when the market starts to consider interest rate cuts by major central banks. Or 2, as we discussed earlier. Let it go to the extreme. The market fears interest rate hikes to the extreme, and there might be actual interest rate hikes. That's probably the point where bonds will peak and start to decline again. Okay, that's all for the view on gold, and there are other assets that Poon recommended. Today, thank you both very much. Thank you Kan. Thank you Poon. Thank you. Goodbye. Goodbye. >> Thank you everyone for following us all along. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a wider society of learning in economics, business, and investment. Now we have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminars from PRP and Team Business Tomorrow. Please subscribe.