ทองหลุด 4,000 เหรียญ! ขาลงเต็มตัว ส่องแนวรับถัดไปลึกถึงไหน ?

It must be admitted that currently, the technical picture, uh, short, medium, long term, is causing gold prices to be in a downtrend. That means between 3,600 - 3,700 is likely to be the second crucial point. Importantly, if it falls from 4,000, in the case of CAS, it should stop here. For those who play Fibonacci, currently, I give weight to the idea that it will rise only once, in September, there might be a chance of >> I think 50/50. [Music] In the middle, currently, for investors, the advice [Music] is to manage risk well. Currently, investing is not just about profit; it's about risk. If [Music] things turn around and interest rates really increase significantly, where will we stop the risk, or where can we accept risk well without [Music] trouble? Follow the gold price. We are currently looking at around 4,000 dollars, but doctor, if technically, first, how important is the gold price at 4,000? If it breaks, what signal will the technical chart indicate, doctor? >> Hmm, it must be admitted that currently, the technical picture, uh, short, medium, long term, is causing gold prices to be in a downtrend. And technically, around 4,000 dollars is considered a significant support level for both medium and long-term investors on the 200-day moving average. Let's look at the Weekly Chart and draw Fibonacci retracement to see if, in a worst-case scenario, it falls heavily. Currently, it stops at the 38% level, right? I can't see the numbers clearly, but let's say around 4,000 is the first level of Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart, which is a very long term. [Breathing sound] Uh, it's the first point, the second point, after falling, it should be able to hold, technically speaking. If it tests here and can hold, it will bounce back up. If it cannot hold and continues to fall from here, the next point to look for is the 50% line. The 50% line is around 3,600 dollars, plus or minus. Meanwhile, the blue moving average line, if I remember correctly, is the 100-day line for weekly chart investors. This means a very long term, it will fall around 3,700 dollars, plus or minus. That means between 3,600 - 3,700 is likely to be the second crucial point. Importantly, if it falls from 4,000, in the case of CAS, it should stop here. For those who play Fibonacci. Now, we are still unsure if the 4,000 level will hold. It is being tested. It is currently at this point. Now, let's look back. If we look technically, let's look at the daily chart a bit to see what it tells us. The daily chart, overall, doesn't show much because it has fallen below the 200-day line. It only indicates that it is making a new low and is in a condition where, if observed carefully, the chart below shows no new low for MACD. There is no new low yet, while the price has made a new low. Therefore, in such a picture, some might interpret it as the beginning of divergence in MACD. However, the picture is not yet clear. It is not yet clear. Now, let's return to the fundamentals, starting from what we discussed earlier. The technical chart indicates this. If it is in a downtrend, and if it breaks 4,000, it might fall to 4,600-4,700. The indicator chart shows it is overbought, oversold. It is oversold, and there might be a reversal. However, a reversal doesn't necessarily mean a complete trend change. It might be a short-term reversal and then fall again. Therefore, this only indicates that there might be some short-term trend. Let's look at the 4-hour chart. See? The 4-hour chart is starting to turn around. There is clear divergence in RSI, and in MACD, there is also divergence, and the price is rebounding. So, in the short term, it looks like there might be some rebound. It might not be much. Now, let's look at the fundamentals happening right now, which are attacks or negotiations. Let's assume it's likely that negotiations have been successful, and oil prices have fallen. Oil is still fluctuating a bit, but let's look at the oil chart to see what it tells us. The oil chart currently indicates that the overall picture for oil is likely a downtrend, and it might fall further. However, it has already fallen deeply and tested the 72 dollar level in Brent, and then bounced back. But the rebound is not significant. And from the news, it can be seen that oil prices have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is the chart of oil prices, where we can see that the chart is pointing downwards considerably. It is pointing downwards considerably. Therefore, with falling oil prices, we might expect that inflation, which is pressuring the Fed, might have a limit. This means that if we analyze that it will rise, everyone knows. Because we have analyzed many times that it is falling due to expectations of interest rate hikes. So, let's look at the chart of those who analyze that it will rise. Let's look at oil. It is a clear downtrend chart. Now, regarding interest rate hikes, this is from the Fed's perspective. Currently, the Fed has a perspective. Let's use the Fed Watch tool. Let's use this tool. It thinks that 38.6% will keep rates at 6%, 48.8% will raise by a quarter point, and 14.8% will raise by 50 basis points. This picture, the market interprets it this way, which is why gold has fallen. And from this news, for three business days since Monday, it has fallen by a total of 320 dollars. Yesterday, it bounced back by about 20 dollars. Currently, it's uncertain if it will hold or not. But technically, as analyzed earlier, there might be some technical rebound. But it's likely just a technical rebound, not a trend reversal to an uptrend. Now, let's look at the substance of interest rate hikes, which, personally, I still analyze that if they hike, it will likely be only once, not twice. Because I believe in oil prices falling. Because if oil falls, it should cause inflation to decrease rapidly. Oil has fallen very rapidly, fallen deeply in just two weeks, by 30-40%. Inflation comes from oil. If the cause disappears, I believe this series of analyses comes from the previous situation before the contract was signed. Because we remember that when they analyzed one or two rate hikes, it was based on the concept on June 17th, but they signed the contract on June 18th-19th, a day or two later. Therefore, we need to watch this tool in the next two weeks. In the next two weeks, the important data to be released is CPI. Of course, I don't expect CPI to fall. Because, simply put, inflation will continue for at least two more months. What is important is the Fed's perspective. If oil falls, and inflation, which should fall, how will the Fed analyze it? Will they still raise interest rates? Because I think the statement about raising interest rates, I personally analyze that it will likely be less, likely less. And don't forget that at that time, it was the opinion of about 9 out of 18 committee members, so it was half and half. I still strongly believe that if oil falls, it won't go up again. That is, if it falls below 70, and it's currently around 73, I believe the Fed might not raise interest rates. I use the word "might." Currently, I give weight to the idea that it will rise only once, in September. There might be a chance of >> I think 50 is better. That's what I think. I don't give it more than 50 because we are following oil prices as the main factor. If oil falls, it means inflation must also fall in the next two months. So, if we predict that inflation will fall, the question is, will the Fed raise interest rates? Right? Because if they raise it, they will have to lower it again soon. It will fluctuate a lot, and it will greatly affect financial conditions. Therefore, I think they won't raise it, and I analyze that gold will not fall much further. Because the fall in oil prices will be good news for gold. It's like today, the market is starting to recognize it and bounce up. But it might be a bounce from news about falling oil or >> It could be a technical rebound, both are possible. So, in general, currently, for investors, the advice is to manage risk well. Currently, investing is not just about profit; it's about risk. If things turn around and interest rates really increase significantly, where will we stop the risk, or where can we accept risk well without trouble? This is the point I want to recommend to investors. I will reiterate that in the Gold Futures market, there are mini gold futures that support retail investors better. The size is reduced by 10 times, from 10 ounces to 1 ounce. Therefore, you can use less money. Using less money to invest means that if you understand, you might use less money to manage risk as well. For example, if you hold gold, say 100 baht of gold, and you think you can only bear this much risk and don't want to risk it if it falls further, you might not be able to accept it. The investment method is to use the tool we call hedging, to protect risk in the Gold Futures market by using mini gold futures. Because with mini gold futures, you only need 14,000 baht to buy 1 contract or sell 1 contract. [Coughing sound] This is the minimum amount, but if recommended, you should have about 60,000 baht to be safer. This is the minimum. So, if it fluctuates, you might get a margin call. There are many methods. I am not recommending any specific direction, but the risk management for each person's portfolio is different. I am just saying that we have tools to help you manage risk and use less money. For example, if you have 100 baht of gold, the original value of 100 baht of gold is about, let's say, approximately, assuming it's at 70,000, it's about 7 million, right? If it's 100 baht, it's about 7 million. So, 100 baht of gold, 7 million baht. You can invest in the Gold Futures market and use an amount of approximately 70,000 to 100,000, uh, 15 million to protect 7 million baht of assets. This is called hedging, by doing a sell futures contract against what you hold. However, you must understand that this is risk management that locks in. You might lose some upside potential, but it locks in the risk, eliminating downside risk. This is a preliminary point to give you some ideas. Is there a way out for those who are stuck with 100 baht of gold, having spent 7 million and are stuck? You watch the price fall and feel sad. From 7 million, it's now 63 million. >> Like this, if you want to use protection >> Not to risk further, you would use about another 1 million baht to protect the 7 million. You don't need to use 7 million baht. This is a way of thinking in Gold Futures, but you need to study further. This is just preliminary advice that there are ways to protect risk in the Gold Futures market. MTS Capital is a subsidiary of MTS GO. We have been a broker for 16 years. So, you can be confident that we can provide advice. If you are interested, you need to open a futures account, study the risks, study the knowledge, and then, if you are confident, come and do it. >> Follow the