Transcription
We have a big signal currently on certain altcoin corners. We will talk about it. We have breaks of our downward channel. We will see if it is a danger. What would confirm a bearish reversal? We will talk about all of that as well, the important levels. We will also provide an update on other altcoin indices. I will also talk about Bitcoin dominance. There are quite a few things to look at at the start of this week.
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So, to come here on Coin 50, as you know, it's an index that I observe a lot. It's an index that was launched by Coinbase not too long ago and that I find quite interesting, which will reflect the overall market dynamics well, but also the altcoin dynamics. So, if you wish, it's a small index that allows you to get an idea of what's happening on the market overall, whether it's Bitcoin and altcoins. And I find it to be a quite interesting index. And so here, we can see that we have our first bearish structures that have arrived. Now, the previous bearish structures formed here. They failed to reverse the price. We can see that we had a bullish leg. And now, we can see, however, that we have a new bearish structure, and we will see if, eventually, yes or no, this time it's different, or if it's like what we had here, that is to say, hop, a big rebound.
Now, what we had here was a weekly fair value gap that was filled, and so that allowed us to relaunch a big leg. The difference here is that, well, there is no weekly FVG, unfortunately. So, that's what we need to observe as well. We have the weekly order block here, meaning that we managed to form an order block. It is crucial not to settle below this low on this index. If you want to look at it on TradingView, you type "coin50 USDC.p", and you will have the same index as me. And what needs to be done on a weekly basis is not, it is absolutely not to break this level, because if we break it, it will be the first time an order block is disrespected on a weekly basis, and that could indicate a bearish dynamic on a weekly scale, and therefore a market that would theoretically have formed a top. So, we must avoid closing below this level at all costs.
We can also see that we have a small break of the channel. It's not serious at the moment because, in fact, we can re-enter the channel at any time. What we should not do, and what would indeed confirm the break of the channel, well, first of all, it's settling below the weekly level I indicated to you, but also that the price continues its bearish dynamic, because, until proven otherwise, there is a bearish dynamic: higher high, lower high, lower low. If the market forms a lower high and then forms a lower low, it will confirm an acceptance of the price below the channel, and at that point, we will enter a bearish dynamic, thus a bearish market on Coin 50. I'm not talking about a bear market that will last 18 months. I might even make a video about my opinion on the bear market, whether the cycle will end or not. That could be interesting. But in any case, the idea would be to say that yes, there would be a bearish dynamic, and therefore our targets would potentially be this low at $460, and then the FVG. So, that would mean we would have a retracement in the altcoin market. So, these are the major levels. The break of the channel, which is not dramatic at the moment, but it should be noted, and especially to see if the market will settle below this level. For now, we see that we only have a small wick. If that is the case, what would be the zones to re-work? Well, it's simple, it's often the fair value gaps, in fact. So, as was the case here, for example, we came back to close that perfectly. We would have this zone here between 455 and potentially 418.
Also, what I invite you to do is to draw a Fibonacci and locate the following levels. The first stop. Okay, so we would have the first stop at the entry of the fair value gap. Okay, so around 452. So, that's a key level if we happen to break this low. And then, of course, we have all the reload zones. So, here, we see that there's a small FVG that has remained open. Well, these would potentially be levels 345-330. But frankly, we are far from all that for the moment. This is just to talk about technical levels.
Also, here, we can see that we came to take the stops of this intermediate high that we had, our reversal structure, so the small M top and a market inversion. Here, we can see that we are triggering a rebound, and as we analyzed Bitcoin this morning, the last order block is there. That is to say, as long as we don't break this last order block, there are unfortunately chances that the rebound we are witnessing is just a simple rebound. So, it would be really interesting to see if we can break this order block here to simply take the opposite direction. Bearish. Now, again, this is an index that was well done by Coinbase, and it doesn't necessarily represent your altcoins. Okay. Uh, as I say, there are really many altcoins that are weak, other altcoins that are stronger. We see that currently the hype is in decentralized exchanges. We saw it with Aster and so on and so forth. What needs to be understood is that this is an index that will more or less represent the market performance, but it's an index that is stronger than the market, let's not lie. Uh, if you want something that will represent your altcoins well, it could be here. And again, there are some altcoins that are already near their April lows, others that are below their April lows. As I always say, you must compare your asset to others. So, for example, you take Cardano, you divide by others, and you see what it gives. Here, for example, we see that Cardano has been underperforming others since August 16th. So, we should have a more bearish dynamic than others, in any case, more impactful bearish movements. So, this looks a bit like Coin 50, even if it's not exactly the same. So, these are things that you observe.
What I wanted to talk to you about again today is others versus BTC. Uh, for me, it's extremely important to observe this. And, uh, we can see that here, we have our bearish structure that formed here. So, it's starting to indicate that altcoin dominance may have reached a peak. After that, it doesn't mean that's the case, but in any case, we are weakening, and we have the beginning of a bearish dynamic here, unlike this bullish dynamic. The question is, are we here like we were in August with a bearish structure that failed, and then we had the rise, or are we on a structure here that is succeeding? I can't answer that. The market will decide, but it should be noted that we have this bearish structure right here, and that the momentum here was not great. It's a momentum that is quite weak. I don't know.
Here, for example, see the big bearish divergence that was forming. We had numerous confirmed divergences here, small confirmed divergences that marked precisely this weakness of momentum. So, the altcoin market remains a weak market. Uh, it needs increased liquidity. Now, the big upcoming event is the US debt. Will the US debt allow for a massive liquidity injection? That's what we'll see. Will the Fed play it as disguised QE or not? Yes, this debt rollover could favor liquidity and could potentially boost the crypto market. But that's really the event to watch.
Also, recently, we had the news about pension funds being able to invest in crypto soon. In any case, it could potentially be approved soon. These are events that can really give the market a boost. But as long as they are not factually there, or really, really in the pipeline, well, for now, we see that in terms of liquidity, we're struggling a bit.
Regarding stablecoin printing, here we see that it's decreasing, even if I switch to a weekly scale, per week, we see that a few weeks ago, we printed 5 billion, 5 billion in weekly printing. Now, we see that it has decreased, we went down to 2.4. Last week, uh, we closed at 2.1. So, we see a decrease in money entering the market. So, that's what causes less liquidity to enter, well, more rotation of liquidity. We saw it with Aster, Asterum, it dumped very liquidly. Many people sold very liquidly to go to Aster and so on and so forth. So, these are really things that need to be understood well, that need to be mastered, and the weakest altcoins unfortunately are the altcoins that are sold first.
I also wanted to talk about Bitcoin dominance here, where, well, we came into the reload zone and we are starting to see small signs of strength. We'll have to see if it's really materializing a bottom or not. We can see that we have, well, first of all, the small W that formed here, but above all, we have a break block that is trying to form. So, this is potentially starting to show us small signs of strength in Bitcoin dominance. I remind you that strong Bitcoin dominance with a falling Bitcoin means, unfortunately, Ethereum can fall more, but especially altcoins that can fall more, because the weakest asset class currently is not Ethereum, it's altcoins. So, a Bitcoin that starts to show signs of strength again like this, that really needs to be observed carefully.
The weekly FVG is important. If Bitcoin dominance breaks this weekly FVG, it could be a first signal of a more significant retracement in Bitcoin dominance. So, that would not be favorable for the altcoin market. And in fact, we need to observe how this rise will happen, because if we have Bitcoin dominance rising and USDT dominance rising, it indicates precisely that we have a market that is losing value and, uh, a market that is falling, quite simply. And therefore, if you have Bitcoin dominance rising and USDT dominance rising, it's often very bearish for altcoins. So, Bitcoin falls, altcoins fall more because Bitcoin dominance increases, and therefore, the market falls because USDT dominance increases.
And on USDT dominance, we have hit some interesting levels, since we can see that we have a mega trendline here, and we have returned to the bottom of this trendline. If we really wanted a big rise in the crypto market, it would be good to break this trendline. Here, it could indicate that USDT dominance will decrease. And when USDT dominance decreases, the market really explodes. For example, we can see it here, from October 2023 to March 2024, we had the big BTC rise that went from $25,000 to $75,000, and many altcoins that had exploded. So, that was a big signal. Now, we can see here that precisely we are hitting this trendline, and each time we come to it, it triggers a rebound. And as I say, when USDT dominance rises again, it's more favorable to unfortunately have a small market decline. And here, we see that on the price dynamic on USDT dominance, well, it might be marking a bottom. So, we need to be careful with these kinds of signals here.
Similarly, on USDT dominance, it might be interesting to observe this weekly FVG, what remains of it. Well, at the very basics, that's it, so I'll note what remains. Well, I'll note the FVG at the base. It would be good to break this zone, that would be announcing. No, precisely, it would not be good to break this zone. It would be good to be rejected by this zone so that we have a further drop in USDT dominance and that, well, quite simply, it can translate into a crypto market that can pump, because honestly, if you just observe the dynamics of USDT dominance and Bitcoin dominance, you have an idea of what's happening in the market. When Bitcoin dominance rises and USDT dominance also rises, it simply translates into a crypto market that is falling, and especially altcoins that are heavily impacted.
Here, I'm going to show you both, but see here, we had the pump of USDT Dominance, the pump of Bitcoin Dominance. Well, in recent days, we've had corrections in altcoins, and we've had Bitcoin that has fallen back from 118,000 to 108,000. So, these are really key indicators for me that need to be monitored to see a little bit what's happening here. And this is the first bullish structure we have on USDT. Well, it's attempting to form, it's not yet validated, so we won't validate that. But in any case, it remains to be observed, because it would potentially be the first bullish structure we could see on USDT dominance. The last time this happened was here in February 2025. After that, we had the market crash until April 7th with Trump's tariffs. We'll have to see if this structure confirms itself. So, ideally, it would not be the case, obviously.
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