Transcription
[Music] Hello, I'm Rob Mat. This is the NewsHour live from Doha. Coming up in the next 60 minutes, a nuclear site in Iran comes under Israeli attack. Local officials say there were no radiation leaks. More Iranian missiles over Israel. Explosions are heard above Tel Aviv, and buildings are set on fire on day nine of the conflict. It can work. It worked in the past, and it can work in the future. Iran's foreign minister says Tehran is open to talks with the US but demands that Israel stops its strikes first. And we take a look at what impact the conflict could have on the world's energy supply. [Music]
Well, there's been no let-up in the exchange of strikes on day nine of the Israel-Iran conflict. While diplomatic efforts continue to stop the fighting, Iranian media say Israeli air strikes hit a nuclear site in the city of Isfahan overnight, triggering the air defense system. Local officials say there were no radiation leaks. Iran's health ministry says at least 430 people have been killed since the conflict began. [Music]
And in central Israel, the emergency services released images showing a fire on the roof of a multi-story residential building. Local media reports the blaze was caused by falling debris from an Iranian missile that was intercepted. Now, speaking in Istanbul, Iranian foreign minister Abbasaki says Tehran remains open to dialogue with the US. But Israel must stop its attacks first. Diplomacy can work. It worked in the past, and it can work in the future. But in order for us to come back to diplomacy, the aggression should be stopped. It is obvious. I cannot go to negotiation with the United States when our people are under bombardment under the support of the United States. Uh, we have come, unfortunately, to the conclusion that the United States has been in this aggression from the from the beginning. We've got three correspondents following developments. Sin Kosiello is in Istanbul; Forrest Nor Odi is in Amman, keeping an eye on events inside Israel. First of all, we're going to go to Tored Assadi in Tehran. Uh, Tori.
To so we are we're talking about the uh diplomatic efforts that are being made by Iran's foreign minister. What is he trying to achieve given the fact that he has repeatedly said that Iran is not going to change its position when it comes to its nuclear program?
Well, actually, the most important message, speaking of the statements that we heard from Iranian foreign minister Abbasi, is that Iran is trying to keep the doors of diplomacy open, and this is the message that we heard him when he was in Turkey, when he was in Geneva, and also in the previous days. We we're just uh listening to him saying uh the constant message to be delivered that Iran is going to continue with a diplomatic trajectory to settle down the issue. But on the other hand, what he is trying to say and what the other Iranian officials are trying to say is that there is one if for that, and they're saying that if Israelis decide to step back and decrease the escalation, there would be a possibility, a ray of hope indeed for issues to be settled down within the perspective of diplomacy. Otherwise, there's going to be more and more of escalation, as escalation is the name of the game that we see as a reality on the ground. And that comes uh when we had reports today about attacks taking place in Isfahan; in that means the continuation of the Israeli strikes, and obviously that means that diplomacy cannot be working at this point, practically speaking. Iranian military officials are putting forth the argument that they were going to continue their retaliations. And now we heard a couple of hours ago a statement from IRGC saying that this this was the 18th wave of their missile and drone attacks, and they're going to continue with that as long as Israeli strikes continue. But at the same time, we heard this statement from Abasi saying that military is doing well. Yesterday, when he was in Geneva, he said, "I'm a diplomat and I'm a war veteran." And that means the double-edged statement that we see, double-edged statement uh when it comes to Iranian positions. They're saying, "We're ready for diplomacy. We're ready for negotiations, but Israelis continue their strikes, and that's the point. We cannot do it."
Todd, let's talk about what daily life is like for people in Iran at the moment. We have, of course, been reporting on the evacuations from several cities uh over the last few days. Talk us through what things are like there.
Well, actually, the situation cannot be described as normal. But the thing is that this is Saturday, the first day of the week in Iran. And compared to yesterday, uh what I see when I was coming to the bureau was that we see more and more of people and crowd of cars, but it's still again far from normal. But it's still it seems that they're getting back to relatively—I insist, relatively—normal situation. But speaking of the sentiments, we've got at least three important elements in this regard. First, when we speak to people, still we can see this anxiety as they see that this threats of war directed by the Israelis over the past months is now getting into getting translated into real actual war, and that creates obviously anxiety, specifically seeing the fact that now they're saying they're talking and they're receiving reports about military and more importantly nuclear facilities being targeted, and that obviously runs the risk of nuclear contamination. This is one point. Secondly, we see a sense of anger, and this is getting increased and increased and increased as Israeli strikes continue from day one, and now this is day nine that continue that they continue to see civilian infrastructures, residential buildings being targeted, and that creates a huge amount of anger among ordinary citizens pertaining to the Israeli strikes and what they are doing, and also there is this sense of solidarity. Last night we last day—I'm sorry, yesterday—we saw a nationwide uh demonstrations across the streets of Tehran and other big small cities in the country; they were out to to to protest the Israeli strikes, and that's sort of unprecedented seeing the fact that the same day that the capital was targeted, a civilian building was targeted, a proportion of people were out to protest uh this this round of strikes. Thank you very much indeed.
Let's talk to Sadi there, talking to us from Tehran. Well, N O is joining us from Amman. She's reporting on Israel from there because the Israeli government's banned Al Jazeera from reporting inside Israel and the occupied West Bank. So, let's talk about the diplomatic efforts in this. Iran and the US both seem to be pushing for talks to carry on. Israel says the time for talk is over. US President Donald Trump seems unwilling to hold Israel back.
That's right, Rob. I mean, the American position on this is quite clear, even though they've opened the door for diplomacy. They're very interested in making sure that the Israeli interests are secured. Um, but Israel did not want any kind of diplomacy even before initiating this assault and this crisis nine days ago. And and so right now, to the eyes and ears of the region, it seems that even the diplomatic efforts are happening with a slant to secure for Israel diplomatically what could take a long time through the military assault. Take, for example, the demand to for Iran to dismantle its ballistic missile uh system, which Iran views as a defense system because it doesn't have an air force that can match, and so on. And so right now, all eyes are on these diplomatic efforts and whether they can succeed given the dynamics, given the fact that on the one hand the US is threatening a crushing military participation, and on the other it is trying through the European foreign ministers to find a way for Iran uh and the US to agree on deescalation so long as it serves again the objectives. Israel, in the meantime, is talking regime change, is talking assassination of the supreme leader, is talking a a very very big game and one that certainly uh could derail any diplomatic efforts and complicate them given all these threats that we're hearing from senior senior ministers, including the minister of defense.
We were reporting earlier that Iran's fired another wave of missiles towards central Israel. What's the latest on the damage that Israel has seen?
Yeah. And in the past in in the during the hours of the day, what we've seen are drones, drones, and more drones. Now, Israel says up to a thousand drones have been launched at it from Iran since uh the the crisis began on June 13th. Today, we saw a building in Bein or Bisan struck directly, and and extensive damage was reported there. Although there were no injuries, another drone fell in the south in an area, according to the video caught by eyewitnesses, that looks like it had some barbed wire and some fortification, but it's not clear what that area really is. And throughout the day yesterday, we saw volleys of missiles striking very sensitive areas, as they are being described in Israeli media, in Haifa, in Tel Aviv, but also in Beer Sheva, where a site adjacent to the technology park where a a unit of the Israeli army that deals with technology and telecommunications and and cyber issues is housed. So a lot is going on right now; not a high number of casualties, thankfully, for the civilians, but uh certainly uh inviting the remarks of Israeli commentators about about Iran's ability to strike fewer uh missiles but to to actually impact and and and get to more sensitive sites across the country from north to south.
Nor from Amman, thank you very much indeed.
Turkish President Rajep Tayyip Erdogan has told the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul that after devastating Gaza, Israel is expanding its aggression. Since the 13th of June, Israel's state terrorism is now being experienced by our neighbor Iran. I'd like to say the following clearly: With all these attacks, the Netanyahu government proved it is the biggest obstacle to regional peace. I strongly condemn Israel's attacks on Iran. On behalf of my country and my nation, I offer my condolences to our Iranian brothers and sisters who lost their lives in Israel's terrorist attacks, bombings, and assassinations.
Arjazi is joining us live from Istanbul. Over the last couple of days, we've had analysts from Turkey explaining to us what Turkey's fears are with regard to this uh uh this conflict. What role can Turkey hope to play in efforts to try to find a solution?
Well, Turkey has long been trying to offer a platform for negotiations and for talks uh also uh in this latest conflict between Iran and Israel. Turkish President Rajep Erdogan offered that he could provide a trilateral pro uh platform between Iran, uh United States, and Turkey would be in so that they could negotiate because since the beginning of this latest uh Israeli ass targeting Iran, Turkey had had the belief that this could spiral into a wider conflict that would affect the whole region. And uh honestly, since the war in Gaza erupted in late 2023, Turkey has always voiced that Israel is the main problem in uh the region. Uh, of course, Turkey is a NATO member country. It is embraced by the west and by the Muslim world, and it has strong bilateral relations with Iran, with the western world, with the United States, and until a couple of years ago it had very strong relations with Israel as well. Turkey and Israel had never had direct confrontation or even much of a diplomatic spat until uh Turkish President Erdogan's uh uh voice in Davos years ago. uh But of course, how far Turkey's influence can reach is a question because there is the Arab League member states, there is the Gulf states uh that have national interests at stake, but Turkey will try its best to play a role, whether the whether the OIC uh structure will allow it to is still unknown, but as of today Turkey is the chair of the OIC, so uh in the coming year Ankara will push for uh for further uh measures against Israel in the conflict of Iran. Back to you, Sim.
Thank you very much indeed. Sim Kosola there in Istanbul. Zor Kesmi is assistant professor at the faculty of world studies at University of Tehran, and she's joining us live from the Iranian capital. Ma'am, thank you very much indeed uh for being with us. Um, given the nature of the conflict that we're seeing at the moment and the different uh diplomatic efforts on the edges of that, to what extent do you think we could be seeing geopolitics in the Middle East, particularly changing as a result of all of this?
Um, yes, you see, actually, diplomacy needs diplomacy needs uh the will, and still, however, some positive steps are taken from the European and also the OIC members. uh But at the same time, it's not enough because uh the act of aggression and the aggressor should be recognized, and they should stop Israel from just creating such adventures, and Iran should rely on a sustainable peace to accept it because having a sort of ceasefire that is very much actually at the verge of being broken, particularly and given to the sort of experience we had with the west, and you remembered very well that JCPOA was just trashed by Trump. So uh Iran should rely on a sustainable peace, and I think it is very much important for Iranians to uh actually be acknowledged as the victim of this war and about the order of the region. If the United States, despite the Americans' wish and also the rational uh experts inside uh actually Trump's administration, really is becoming so much irrational to intervene militarily, then there are very pessimistic scenarios for the region and for the world. uh At least it is propagated that they will use uh B-2, for example, bombers against Fordo, but they should know that uh the nuclear technology is very much home ground, and it's not easy to dismantle even a site that is half a half a mile, you know, uh underground of a mountain, and even given that it's done well, uh again, is Iran is not sitting on its hands, so the whole region would be on higher and sooner the energy skyrocketing on price; the econom—the global economy as we know today would just disappear, and even some experts think if escalation continues to just go up, then even uh maybe the United States is in position to face save and use more nuclear bombs against Iran, and then you can understand that how what sort of actually nuclear contest would be in the region, how maybe Putin is getting a sort of permission to use it against Ukraine, what would run in Taiwan. Uh, so you see that this nuclear contest in the world would become a norm and a new norm, and uh that would be very devastating actually consequences.
Um, Israel went into this uh conflict on the pretext of trying to offset what it uh claims is an immediate threat from an Iranian nuclear weapon. And then shortly after that, Benjamin Netanyahu brought up the subject of regime change. Now, at the time that was broadly dismissed, but given what we're seeing on the ground and the nature of the attacks that Israel is carrying out, how much emphasis are people in Iran, or how much consideration are people in Iran giving to those threats of regime change?
uh You know, it was 2002 when Netanyahu was talking about Iran to be imminent to develop actually a nuclear bomb, and it was two decades ago, and even today IAEA and also the US intelligence agency director has confirmed that no intelligences could find and pursue any evidence that Iran is developing weapons. So it's absolutely rejected, and about the regime change, it's an old agenda just always claimed by the United States, by by the Europeans, by their even coalition in the region. Uh, and the fact was interesting that when they just did this blitzkrieg and uh just assassinated the top commanders and scientists and they thought that maybe there would be civil unrest in Iran. It was absolutely vice versa. There is a high solidarity among the people. Yesterday I was just taking part in the Friday prayers in Tehran, and I saw the thousands and thousands of people coming to the streets and demanding the military and the actually government to stand firmly against Israel, and uh as they see the, you know, the stockpiles of u uh the um missiles in Iran are doing well, and the pressure in Israel on Israel is something that uh they cannot be denied anymore. So any con—this conventional war of attrition that we are just watching uh is something that the west and Israel had already lost.
Zor Kasim, we appreciate it. Thank you very much indeed for being with us.
European foreign ministers say they still hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Israel and Iran. Following talks with Iran in Geneva, Foreign Minister Abbasarachi said Iran would take part in negotiations, but not while Israeli strikes continue. He also said that Tehran's defense capabilities are non-negotiable. Alena Vaselinovich reports from Geneva.
A slew of diplomatic arrivals, all smiles and cordial handshakes, but behind the pleasantries, there is a lot at stake. The Iranian foreign minister met with top diplomats from the UK, France, Germany, and the European Union in an urgent attempt to pull the spiraling conflict in the Middle East back from the brink. Earlier in the day, the Europeans met over lunch, unified in their demand for Iran to abandon all nuclear enrichment on its soil, a position that aligns with Washington, but one that Tehran has repeatedly rejected. Strongest time. Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and has always been under the IAEA safeguards and monitoring. Iran is ready to consider diplomacy once again. And once aggression is stopped and the aggressor is held accountable for the crimes committed. In this regard, I made it crystal clear that Iran's defense capabilities are not negotiable. From the European side, little sign of a breakthrough. We are keen to continue ongoing discussions and negotiations with Iran, and we urge Iran to continue their talks with the United States. This is a perilous moment, and it is hugely important that we don't see regional escalation of this conflict. The road to resolution looking uncertain. After hours of talks, little detail on what, if anything, was achieved at this meeting. What we've heard from the diplomats were things that were said many times before about the need to deescalate and continue dialogue, but no real substance about how that can be achieved. What happens next is key. Both sides said they're open to more talks, but the uncertainty over what the US President Donald Trump might do next looms large. Mileno, Alazer, Geneva.
Dan Perry's an Israeli affairs analyst and the former regional editor of the Associated Press in the Middle East. He's joining us from Tel Aviv. Thanks very much indeed for being with us again, Dan. I want to talk to you just briefly about the the influence that Donald Trump's uh delay of about two weeks, as he puts it, uh with regard to this the kind of effect that it's having on the conflict. Does this mean that this is now turning this into a kind of longer-term war of attrition between Iran and Israel? Or is there something else behind this?
It could be misdirection. I mean, if I was uh Trump, I might consider, you know, planning an attack and denying it to keep my enemies off balance and maintain an element of surprise, but I I kind of accept that Trump really is genuinely torn in a Hamletike way. There are competing wings of uh the MAGA movement within the Republican party. Uh, one is classic Republican interventionist, perhaps represented by Ted Cruz. The other, maybe best represented by Tucker Carlson but also many others including JD Vance, is isolationist and wants no part of foreign conflicts even when they're justifiable in a way. So uh Trump enjoys clearly having the world uh you know, guessing what he'll do next and having all the attention uh focused on him uh on the ground. I think the results are devastating, and fundamentally it's a it's a very very dangerous mistake because Israel clearly will not end its operation as long as this is in the offing. So even if they've optimized from their point of view, uh they're going to just continue uh and every day that passes brings diminishing returns perhaps, but uh incredible risk because you know, only one one missile that gets through and causes a true mass casualty event in Israel will create pressure politically in Israel for an escalation. And I don't think that's something anyone wants to see. So I think the wiser thing for Trump to do would be either to accept Iran's overtures and resume negotiations with Iran at this point weakened and perhaps chastened and more flexible; he can always resume the fight later; or or if he's disinclined to do that and he wants to seize the moment with Iran being on a back foot because of Israel's successes, then you know, join the war and uh attack Fordo with buster bunk uh bunker-busting bombs uh that would enable uh Israel and the US to say they've destroyed the Iranian nuclear program and and declare victory. Wars classically should end at some point with victory of one side or the other. This idea of forever wars is very bad for all sides and is something Trump himself uh has uh condemned and rightly so.
Uh, Benjamin Netanyahu, when these attacks started by Israel, said that they were being done in order to neutralize and what was being perceived as an imminent threat from Iran's nuclear program. There have been many voices that have come up, including...
Of course, from Iran itself, saying that there is no immediate, eminent threat from Iran's nuclear program. Um, nevertheless, in the event that Israel carries out all these attacks and does, to its satisfaction, decapitate, if you like, what it believes is Iran's nuclear program, how much safer are Israelis going to be? I think most Israelis think they'd be safer without Iran being either a nuclear weapons state or a threshold state. I would like to see, uh, a transparent presentation at some point, and the sooner the better, of whatever intelligence Israel had that made this moment particularly opportune. Although there are other reasons that one could present, or different narratives, like, for example, Trump's own 60-day deadline for Iran to be flexible in the talks, and he pretty much suggests he he was aligned with Israel on day 61.
Uh, look, the Iranian, uh, uh, disavowals of a nuclear program ring hollow to me because it's, uh, the IAEA has has stated clearly that Iran is enriching uranium at a 60% level that has absolutely no, uh, non-military use, none whatsoever. They have also detected weapons-level enrichment up to 83%, which again is purely for weaponization. So I mean their denials are laughable. Now, what degree, uh, they have proceeded, how close they were to a bomb, hours, days, weeks, I I do not know. But the Israelis cannot accept an Iranian nuclear bomb. And I I think, uh, the regime in Iran, uh, misreads the situation. If they think they can somehow continue buying time and playing games, I I think that ship has sailed. I I think even another ship has sailed. This idea that Iran can, uh, uh, arm and fund and train and guide militias all over the region, undermining the sovereignty of Lebanon and and Yemen and, uh, the Palestinian Authority and and the Iraqi government. I never understood why that was tolerated even for a split second.
So look, the world is full of despotic and dictatorial regimes, from Korea to Cuba and many places in between. Uh, generally, uh, you know, we leave it to those societies to overthrow those regimes, but when such regimes become a menace to their region, that's when talk of intervention and talk of regime change becomes, uh, more prominent and and in my view, it eventually becomes justifiable. Uh, I think that's where we are, and the notion that this is purely a question of Iranian sovereignty, uh, is is not so convincing to me when everyone knows that when you talk to people who are outside Iran and therefore have a measure of freedom of speech, the vast majority of the Iranian people would like this regime to go so they can enjoy the freedom that we have in many other countries, including, by the way, in Israel. It's very interesting to get your thoughts on this, Dan Perry. We appreciate it. Thank you very much. Thank you, Ron.
The United Nations Security Council held an emergency session on the Israel-Iran conflict at the request of Tehran. Israel's representative had to be warned after launching a personal attack at Iran's ambassador, who restated that Tehran's nuclear program is peaceful. Gabel Alzando reports from UN headquarters in New York. The Security Council. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed for an end to the fighting and a return to negotiations. We are not witnessing isolated incidents. We are on course to potential chaos. The expansion of this conflict could ignite a fire that no one can control. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency told the council he is most concerned about the ramifications if Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant is attacked. This time a direct hit could result in a very high release of radioactivity to the environment for supporting this meeting. Iran's ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, reminded the council that while Iran has opened its nuclear facilities up to inspection, Israel has not. Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and under the world's most extensive IAEA inspections. Iran has long advocated for a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Middle East. Israel is the only possessor of undeclared nuclear weapons in the region. It refused to acknowledge regional disarmament efforts. Israel's ambassador later received a warning after he leveled a personal attack against his Iranian counterpart. Mr. You are not a victim. You are not even a diplomat. You are a wolf pretending to be a diplomat. And we are done pretending otherwise. China and Russia continued to condemn Israel's attack on Iran that they said have led to the escalation. Iran's ambassador to the UN also told the council that Israel's strikes on his country's nuclear facilities are a complete assault on the global non-proliferation regime. Gabrielando Alazida at the United Nations in New York.
Still ahead in our daz why foreign attempts at influencing Iran's internal politics have a familiar ring to them for Iraqis. What intelligence do you have that Iran is building a nuclear weapon? Your intelligence community has said they have no evidence that they are at this point. Well, then my intelligence community is wrong. Donald Trump doubles down in his claim Iran is building a nuclear weapon, undermining his own director of national intelligence. [Music] Hello. The summer solstice is bringing the hottest weather of the year so far into parts of northwest Europe. But notice bits and pieces of cloud just creeping in here. So, we are going to see something of a thundery breakdown to the heat as we go on through the next couple of days. High pressure still very much in charge. That's why we got the warm, hot, southerly winds coming in across much of Western Europe. Clear skies as well because of our high. But we do have these areas of cloud, bands of cloud, thundery outbreaks. It's a chance of some thundery showers coming into well northern parts of England in particular as we go through, uh, Saturday afternoon. Showers creeping up there into Scotland. Ireland seeing a shower or two into western parts in particular. Chance of some showers too just around the Alps. We have got one or two showers into eastern and northern parts of Spain as well. The main thing to take from the weather at the moment, of course, though, is that heat, and you can see we are getting well into the 30s for many places. Paris at 36. We could touch 32 in London, even into Edinburgh. We're getting up into the mid-20s here. Things do freshen up. It cools down more than where showers as we go on into Sunday. But a lot of dry weather across much of central eastern parts of Europe. Maybe one or two showers over towards the east there. And there you go. It's hot, dry, and sunny across the Met.
Ever wondered what a fairy tale sunrise looks like? Welcome to Uzbekistan, the land of a thousand and one sunrises. Where each dawn is like never before. Where ancient palaces bathe in the golden morning hues. A journey that takes you to the most beautiful scenes. Live the adventure. And remember, make a wish on the many shooting stars that await. Explore the magic. Discover a world of difference. Stories of diversity, [Music] rebellion, corruption, and compassion. Al Jazeera World, a selection of the best films from across our network of channels. [Music] on Al Jazeera. [Music] You're watching our reminder of our top stories this hour. Iranian media says Israeli air strikes hit a nuclear site in the city of Isfahan overnight, triggering its air defense system. Iran's health ministry says at least 430 people have been killed since the conflict began. Explosions have been lighting up the skies above Tel Aviv as it was hit by another wave of Iranian missiles. The conflict is now in its ninth day. Iran's foreign minister has joined the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul. He says Tehran is ready to discuss its nuclear program with the US, which he says Israel has deliberately derailed. Iran's government spokeswoman has told Al Jazeera that a country is actively defending itself while not closing the door on diplomacy. Fatima Mohajarani says Iran was attacked by Israel under false pretenses, likening it to the invasion of Iraq. We're in a situation where over 50 women and children have been killed in the past week during Israeli attacks, and orphanages, ambulances, and hospitals have been targeted. Do we really have a choice but to go to Geneva to listen and make decisions? We are actively defending ourselves, but we're not shutting the door on diplomacy. Over the past 200 years, Iran has not initiated any war. We have no interest in starting one and deliberately avoid it. What we are witnessing today is a legitimate act of self-defense, which is clearly recognized as Iran's right under all international protocols. At the same time, to show the world that we remain open to dialogue, we have chosen to engage. In such circumstances, which rational country would enter negotiations? Still, we believe in listening to the other side. That's why our diplomats are present in Geneva to hear the other side out. Diplomacy is about give and take. What truly matters now is that the world must first acknowledge that a genuinely aggressive regime attacked Iran, targeting our military commanders, children, women, scientists, and ordinary citizens in the middle of the night. The solution is to understand the problem. Iran has repeatedly said that if the problem is the global issue of nuclear weapons, we have said again and again that we have no intention of pursuing them. Everyone knows that this path has been tried repeatedly over recent decades. Wasn't Iraq invaded under a similar pretext? And after all these years, did they ever find chemical weapons? Our perspective is not that we are in a full-scale war. Rather, our stance is one of lawful defense. We hope the United States avoids making such a mistake. But should tensions rise, our responses will certainly escalate in proportion. We have always said, do not speak to the Iranian people in the language of threats. Iran is an ancient civilization, far older than many of the nations now making statements. We have a deep-rooted heritage, and they must recognize they are addressing a great nation. What is crucial here is that if they make a mistake, we will undoubtedly defend ourselves, and we will carry out whatever is rightfully ours. We sincerely hope they do not make such a misstep.
Joining me on set is Muhammad Salum. He's an assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Good to have you with us. We're now in day nine of this conflict, and we're now at the point where Iran and Israel are trading missiles back and forth. What's your assessment of where the conflict is at the moment? Well, on the ninth day of this conflict, it's clear now, um, Israel has the edge technologically. They have superiority when it comes to the air force. Um, both on both sides actually, air defenses and air force, and on the Iranian side, uh, they seem not to have enough to counter Israeli, uh, offenses from the air, and Israel is in full control, almost in full control of the Iranian skies. Equally, on the Iranian side, we can see that their missile system actually is effective. Even though on the first few days they have sent dozens of missiles, uh, to Israel, they were not very much effective. Uh, at least this is my assessment, uh, and reading of the first few days. But then no, we can see now that Iranian missiles are actually reaching to the heart of Israel, more accurate and more effective. And what I mean by effective, it's, uh, unfortunately, more destructive. So what we are seeing here is, uh, both countries, they have their weaknesses and, um, strong points, and the conflict is, uh, going on. The overall assessment, uh, I think that both sides do not want this conflict to be prolonged. Uh, it is not in favor of Israel anyway, is because Iran, uh, can withstand a longer period of conflict. Israel apparently, um, cannot do that. They can go for weeks and probably a few months, but that would really set back the Israeli economy, the morale on the ground. Uh, and for a very obvious fact, Israel is also a larger country, and their their population is prepared for war, and they have been on and off in wars since the early 1980s. So the situation in front of us is at at a critical, uh, point now because both parties want to end the war. One side is aggressive, which is Israel, saying that we want to achieve our strategic goals. Iran is more on the defensive side, saying that we are defending, uh, ourselves. We have heard that from the spokesperson but also from Arachi, the, uh, the foreign minister, that we are defending and we we would like Israel to stop its offensive.
I want to talk to you about the subject of regime change, which Benjamin Netanyahu had mentioned, um, in the days very quickly after the launching of the Israeli attacks, and the threats of regime change hanging over Iran in this latest conflict do echo a dark legacy of Western influence stretching back decades. The US and Britain and other external powers have tried to manage Iran's internal politics. Mahi takes a look back at the toll it's taken on the country. Talk of regime change by way of foreign intervention has dominated the news agenda over the past week, but history offers cautionary tales. The US-led invasion of Iraq, NATO's intervention in Libya, but also in Iran, where the US and UK sponsored regime change, ousting its prime minister decades ago. It began in the early 1900s. The British began developing Iran's oil industry in exchange for total control over exploration and sales, creating the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, later known as British Petroleum. Iran's vast oil reserves would be under British control for the next half century, handing London double the revenue compared to that of Iran. But there was growing resentment. In the 1950s, a wave of nationalist voices began dominating Iran's parliament, led by Prime Minister Muhammad Mosaddegh, once Time magazine's person of the year, who took office on a platform to reduce the powers of the Shah and to nationalize Iran's oil industry, saying in a speech, "With the oil revenue, we could meet our entire budget and combat poverty, disease, and backwardness among our people." In Iran, the move was seen as a bold step towards economic sovereignty, but in Britain, a violation of its interests. In 1953, Britain convinced the US to assist in orchestrating a coup against Mosaddegh in a covert operation of planting propaganda, fueling riots, and propping up military generals, ultimately removing Mosaddegh from power and restoring the reign of the Shah, who had briefly fled Iran. Though it brewed unforeseen consequences, it planted the seeds of anti-westernism, fueling the view that Iran had become simply a client of the West. Sentiments that grew, eventually contributing to the Islamic Revolution in 1979, a revolution that toppled 2,500 years of monarchy, replaced by a government with suspicion of the West ingrained in its worldview. Foreign meddling, not so much a success, but rather a setback, later admitted by those responsible. The Eisenhower administration believed its actions were justified for strategic reasons. But the coup was clearly a setback for Iran's political development. And as history threatens to repeat itself once more, a visceral aversion to foreign intervention remains woven in the fabric of Iran's identity. Bedad Mahichi, Al Jazeera.
I'm going to go back to Muhammad Salum. He's an assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Um, Bayad there was explaining the situation with regard to, uh, the Iran and the attempted, the coup there in the 1950s. A more recent event, of course, was 2003, the US invasion of Iraq. Subsequent to that, there were efforts by the Western powers to try to enforce change, uh, political change, particularly, uh, in Iraq. Now, there's a lot of speculation about whether or not there is an attempt to create the circumstances for regime change in Iran. Is there a comparison that can be made between what we saw in Iraq, for example, and what we're seeing in Iran now? Well, obviously, yes. And, um, this came actually from the Iranian spokesperson for the government comparing what's happening in Iran with Iraq. Obviously, she was talking about the sanctions and the US invasion of Iraq, and that these were unfounded accusations against Iraq then, but now on the ground, we see that actually the Israeli side, because at this time the actors are slightly different. So while the US is involved and it is the strongest party, the war has been initiated by Israel, and Israel is calling it as a preemptive war or a military, uh, action against Iran, and its declared, um, declared aims are to make Iran too weak to make any, uh, security posture and too weak to counter any popular, uh, opposition. So basically, um, to bring down the regime. So they go the regime to go, they go hand in hand, while the while the US is denying, uh, any such role. So they they don't have any declared goals that they want to bring down or change a regime in Iran. They actually have been providing the enabling factors to such regime change. First, the sanctions, sanctions have been going on for far too long now. And this, um, you know, drives the people to be angry at the government because the Iranians have been under sanctions, uh, most of the last 30 years at least. And now we have on the other side, the US is actually the main source of support, at least of intelligence information to Israel, and Iran, the US as well is providing, uh, the Israeli side with the latest technology. So what we cuz earlier I was saying that Israel obviously, uh, has the edge in technology and in air force. This came from the US. So the scene in front of us is, um, um, where the US and Israel are trying, uh, or at least they you know they are enabling the conditions on the ground for regime change. Israel is very clear about their goals. The prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu, has said it clearly that we would like to see regime change in Iran, and they also have been targeting not only the nuclear sites, which are the main targets of the campaign. They are also they have conducted, um, several key and strategic assassinations in the leadership. What we are seeing here is a clearly under full and good understanding of the power dynamics inside Iran. That's why they targeted two types of people, nuclear scientists and IRGC, uh, leaders and military and commanders of the IRGC leaders, not the Iranian army. So there is, um, some kind of difference between the two. So, uh, the long-term seems, the long-term goal of this campaign is to destabilize the regime, obviously to neutralize their nuclear system, but also to destabilize the regime with the aim of enabling probably forces on the ground to topple the regime. When we compare this with Iraq, Iraq took a a totally different trajectory. But this does not mean that, uh, this campaign is not aiming to bring down the regime because the US forces and its coalition, they they understood or they have learned so many lessons from Iraq that preparing the ground, probably preparing opposition figures so that they come back to Iraq, uh, would, uh, would actually, it might not work. So they want it organic from inside. Saloon, we appreciate you giving us that analysis. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you.
US President Donald Trump says he will not ask Israel to suspend its attacks on Iran, and that's something Tehran is insisting on for talks to be resumed with the US. Trump's also revealed a major disagreement with his country's top intelligence chief over whether Iran is building a nuclear bomb. Al Jazeera's Hide Castro reports. US President Donald Trump's self-imposed window to decide whether to take direct military action against Iran is quickly closing, and perhaps faster than expected. Does Iran have two weeks, or could you strike before that? Are you essentially giving them a two-week timeline? I'm giving them a period of time. We're going to see what that period of time is, but I'm giving them a period of time, and, uh, I would say two weeks would be the maximum. The White House says it has maintained back channels with Iran. But Tehran says there will be no talking with the US until Israel stops its attacks, but the president says he will not ask Israel to stop. I think it's very hard to make that request right now. If somebody's winning, it's a little bit harder to do than if somebody's losing, but we're ready, willing, and able. Trump says European-led efforts at diplomacy aren't helping and that only the US can bring an end to the crisis through a deal, claiming Iran is at the brink of having a nuclear weapon within weeks or months. What intelligence do you have that Iran is building a nuclear weapon? Your intelligence community has said they have no evidence that they are at this point. Well, then my intelligence community is wrong. Who in the intelligence community said that? Your director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. She's wrong. National intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard defended herself on X, blaming the media for fake news and posting a portion of her March congressional testimony that only seemed to confirm her intelligence disagreement with Trump. The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. Trump cast doubt on Iran's claim that it is enriching uranium only for energy purposes. When you're sitting on one of the largest oil piles anywhere in the world, it's a little bit hard to see why you need that. While Trump's fissure with advisers cautioning him against striking Iran is deepening, he also says he wants to be a peacemaker and that US ground forces in Iran would be the last thing anyone wants.
wants. Whether the US will join Israel in its aerial bombardments will be a decision solely up to him. Heidi Joe Castro, Al Jazer, Washington.
Israel's attacks on Iran and Teheran's retaliation could threaten a fifth of the world's energy supplies. According to analysts, concerns are growing over the security of global supply chains. Assama bin Javeed reports. This 33 km stretch of water is one of the world's most crucial energy supply routes. A fifth of the world's oil, fertilizer, and gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has previously threatened to cut off the maritime bottleneck if it faces what it describes as existential threats. But Israel is attacking Iran's energy infrastructure, including the Shahran oil depot that holds Tehran's main reserves of fuel estimated to last about 3 days. Major refineries including Shah and the Najafabad oil refinery near Ispahan are also being struck. The most significant target of the conflict so far, the South Pars field, the world's largest offshore gas reservoir shared with Qatar. Iran has also struck areas in Israel's port city of Haifa with ballistic missiles and drones, forcing the suspension of exports of gas through Egypt and restricting flows of liquefied natural gas or LNG to Europe and parts of Asia. Iran launched a missile barrage that damaged pipelines and transmission lines at the Haifa oil refinery as well. It was partially shut down. Israel also suspended operations at its Tamar and Leviathan gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea for safety reasons. The EU, China, India, and Japan rely heavily on oil from the Middle East and are concerned about the current crisis, as are Iran's regional neighbors. We have to condemn very clearly, and the international committee has to make it very clear that any targeting of nuclear facilities, any targeting of fuel uh or energy facilities in uh in this region would have ramifications that are unknown. The third largest oil producer in the OPEC group of oil producers, Iran's exports make up about 4 and a.5% of global supplies. But oil producers are capable of dealing with supply cuts of that size. Any blockage of shipping routes though could restrict supplies and not just oil. The cost of ensuring tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has already increased, and any disruption there could further force up oil prices even above $100 a barrel according to some estimates. Israel's war with Iran, slowing growth in China, and Europe's move away from Russia's oil and gas are all weighing on global trade. Add to that concerns about the reliability of US President Donald Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner, and some experts are concerned the world economy could be hurtling towards a perfect storm. Alazer. [Music]
Israel's military still targeting Palestinians trying to collect food in Gaza. Israeli forces have killed at least 26 people on Saturday, including 11 waiting to get desperately needed supplies. Those attacks took place at distribution centers run by the US and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. They've been accused of weaponizing aid. You enter the streets to arrive before the people to the point of death, as I call it. I call it the point of death. The tank is in front of us. The machine gun is in front of us. And the quadcopter is above us. And there are soldiers on the ground with snipers. Anyone who moves before the time is shot, and the moment the tank retreats, we start running.
Pro-Palestinian activist Magma Khalili has been released from a detention center in Louisiana. The Colombia University graduate was arrested by immigration officials in March. Phil Lavel reports from Washington DC. A defining moment for Mahmoud Khalil. The pro-Palestinian activist finally released from detention on Friday night and fully resolved to fight on against the highest power in the land. Trump and his administration, they chose the wrong person for this. This is where Khalil has spent the last 3 months, an immigration processing center in Louisiana. He was transferred here from New York after being arrested in March, nearly a year after the protests that swept across college campuses in support of the Palestinian people. Khalil had taken part in this one at Colombia University. This is a movement, an anti-war movement. We have sparked similar Gaza solidarity encampments across the nation and even across the globe. You're going to be under arrest. So turn around. Bringing him to the attention of the Trump administration, which has launched a crackdown on those who organized the protests, accusing them of having an adverse effect on US foreign policy. His heavily pregnant wife filming the moment he was arrested. You guys really don't need to be doing all of that. Khalil, a green card holder and permanent resident, is married to a US citizen. Now he's heading back home. A federal judge ruling he is not a flight risk, not a danger to society, and should be out. The message is justice will prevail no matter what this administration may try to portray. Portraying that immigrants are whether criminals or or or any of that trying to do all of this now. Um this simply is not true. But freedom is one thing. He's facing another big battle in the courts. And that is because officials here in Washington still want him gone, and they are continuing their efforts to have him deported. The claim is he misled authorities by leaving crucial information off his green card application, a claim he denies. But his fight to stay here in the US is far from over. Phil Lavell, Al Jazera, Washington.
And drones are reshaping warfare from Ukraine to the Middle East. And now European countries are racing to ramp up production. Natasha Butler reports from Paris. Low cost and able to be mass-produced rapidly. A model of French company MBDA's explosive long-range missile designed to saturate enemy air defense systems like an Iranian Shahid drone. It was created to be produced in large quantities and quickly thanks to its simple design and our company partnering with a French automobile maker so we could produce a thousand of them per month. Drones and drone-like technology is reshaping warfare faster than ever from Ukraine to the Middle East. But Europe's long lagged behind countries including the US and China in innovation and production. But that's changing. This is a prototype of a new generation drone being co-developed by companies from Italy and Turkey. Turkey's Baykar Technologies, a leading drone manufacturer and Italian aeronautics giant Leonardo hope to begin deliveries in 2026. Leonardo's chairman says European companies like his are scaling up fast. We are talking with other European partners uh both French and Germans in the space in space. So yeah, we we are already getting there. Then whatever comes it you know it's not a it's more a question of political will of financing. Financing helps. Political will is is decisive. Political will now seems to be there. After years of slow investment, countries in the EU are increasing defense spending to fill a gap left by the US as Washington distances itself from the bloc. Innovations like these are helping to bolster European sovereignty. Natasha Butler, Al Jazer, Paris.
Let's take a quick look at the latest developments. Day nine of the Israel-Iran conflict. Iranian media says Israeli air strikes have hit a nuclear site in the city of Isfahan overnight. Local officials say no one was hurt and there were no leaks of hazardous materials. Iran's health ministry says at least 430 people have been killed since the conflict began, and explosions have lit up the skies above Tel Aviv as it was hit by another wave of Iranian missiles, and apartment buildings caught fire in the capital. Iran's foreign minister says Tehran is ready to discuss its nuclear program with the US, but Israeli attacks must stop first. Sarah's going to be here in a couple of minutes with more on all these stories. I'm Rob Mat. Stay with us on Al Jazeera.