Transcription
I just updated my retirement account and here's how I am allocating my money for 2026 and beyond: 40% to equities, 25% to energy, 25% metals, and 10% real assets and infrastructure. Today, I'm going to lay out my full portfolio. I'll give you the ticker symbols, exact percentages, and the rationale behind each one. This is a mix of 21 different exchange-traded funds that can be bought at any broker. And if you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to this channel so that I can update you when I make changes in the future.
Now, I'm not instructing you to do the same thing. This is not investment advice. It is simply where I, Ross Given, at 42 years old, am putting my money, and it is based on a number of assumptions that you may or may not agree with. My approach is to be tactically diversified. I want broad exposure, but I want to be focused on the areas likely to outperform over the next couple of years. So, what will the world look like 20 years from now? I have no idea. Two years from now, that's a little easier to predict. I only hold ETFs because my goal is to avoid single stock risk to stay focused on the leading investment themes.
Now, for the last few years, we all know that theme has been AI. The artificial intelligence ETF, ticker AIQ, has nearly doubled over the last 2 years. But when we look at things today at the tail end of 2025, are AI stocks likely to keep going higher? It's tough to say. Valuations have reached extremely elevated levels. Some are calling it a bubble. In my opinion, the AI trade is a bit long in the tooth. Buying here is kind of like showing up to a baseball game in the eighth inning. Instead, I am focused on what I believe will be the big winners in 2026 and 2027. Those are energy, metals, and physical assets.
So, let's start with the biggest allocation bucket, a 40% chunk to equities. Now, this may look a bit conservative, but as you'll see, the bulk of the dollars that are going to energy are going to energy stocks. The same is true of metals. The same is true of infrastructure. So in reality, the percentage going to stocks is much, much higher. This 40% only refers to index fund investments. Now I use Vanguard ETFs. They're very liquid, but more importantly, they offer the lowest management fees in the industry. And at first glance, you say, well, what's 10 basis points versus 30 or 40? Well, over a quarter or a year, not much. Over 20, 30 years, it does add up.
Now, I've also tilted the funds away from the mega-cap AI stocks by putting half of these dollars to value stocks, small and midcaps, as well as emerging markets. And my rationale for this is that 40% of the S&P 500 is dominated by just 10 companies. Nvidia alone represents nearly 8%. Now, you're talking about a stock that is up 12-fold over the last three years. So, do I want a bunch of money in an index that can be tanked by a single company? No.
So, here's what I've done. I've got 20% to ticker VOO, which is the Vanguard S&P 500, a general market fund. It's going to track that index. I have another 5% to their value ETF, ticker VTV. This is going to reduce our exposure to these big valuation bubbles. It's going to buy stocks that have low price-to-earnings multiples, low price-to-book. Another 5% going to small and midcap stocks. Historically, although it hasn't been true over the last several years, the bigger growth comes from the small to medium-sized company since they just have much more room to grow. It's much easier for a $1 billion company to double than it is for a $1 trillion company. Additionally, what you're getting here is more domestic exposure. The big mega-cap stocks are at the mercy of global economies. If there is a problem in India or Japan or Europe, they are affected. But again, the smaller and medium-sized companies tend to do the bulk of their business here in the US. And then finally, a 10% allocation to emerging markets via the ticker VWO. This is a focus on what I believe are the commodity-rich economies, those that are going to benefit from the copper, the lithium demand. And we're going to go into all that in much more detail. Okay, so pretty simple. VOO, VTV, VXF, and VWO, 20%, 5%, 5%, and 10% allocations for 40% of my dollars into index.
All right, so next is energy. I am putting 25% toward energy stocks. It's a split between renewables like solar and nuclear and traditional oil and gas, which I've of course called dinosaur juice. Now, this to me, the energy sector is one of the biggest investment opportunities of our lifetime. Data centers are creating huge demands for energy. Municipalities located near them are seeing energy prices surge, and there is a nationwide race to generate enough juice to power these AI data machines. So I've got 13% to renewables, 12% to oil and gas.
The renewables, I think there's the the the big two opportunities, and we don't know which one is going to win. Uh, but really, it's nuclear and solar. If you listen to Elon Musk, he's all in on solar. I've been very bullish on nuclear. Honestly, I think maybe solar wins short-term, nuclear wins long-term, but I don't want to miss an opportunity here. So, I've got a 4% allocation to the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF. This is going to hold SMR, OKLO, GE Vernova. Again, just a big basket of the big nuclear stocks. If this sector succeeds, regardless of which stock is the big winner, you're going to have exposure there. Another 4% to solar via ticker TAN. This is the big solar ETF from Invesco. It's going to hold First Solar, it's going to hold SolarEdge, all the big names there. And then a final 5% to the iShares Clean Energy or Global Clean Energy. So there's a lot of overlap with solar and nuclear there. Uh, so in all reality, it's probably more like 5 or 6% to nuclear, 5 or 6% to solar, and then maybe a percent or two into the others, your geothermals, your wind, etc. But it's a nice little catch-all fund. All right, so that's the renewable section.
The other 12% to oil and gas. And I've broken this down into the three real clean areas to trade it. One is midstream infrastructure. This is done through ticker AMLP. It is a master limited partnership, but trades like an ETF. Don't worry about what that means. You can buy it in your account. It's super easy. So in the short term, and Sam Altman has said this, natural gas is likely to be the bridge fuel for these big data centers until they get a longer-term solution, which I believe will probably be nuclear or solar. So this is the infrastructure ETF. It's going to hold things like pipelines and and and all the companies that profit from getting that gas from where it comes out of the ground to where it gets burned. Now, in addition, a nice side benefit of this is it pays a huge dividend, currently 8.5%. So, you're getting a nice little yield on your money.
Another 4% concentrated straight to natural gas. And that's via the First Trust Natural Gas ETF, ticker FCG. So, this is going to capture my expected upside of the rising natural gas prices. So, this is the first one is like your midstream. This is your upstream. This is your guys that are they're getting it out of the ground. So FCG is going to profit from the people drilling for natural gas as we see the prices of natural gas likely rise. AMLP is going to profit from the guys taking it from there, running it through the pipes across the country and getting it where it needs to burn. And then finally, a 4% allocation to VDE. This is just the general Vanguard Energy ETF. It's going to give you exposure to all the traditional oil and gas producers and drillers.
All right. Now, another 25% is being allocated to metals. And this is higher than it would have gone historically. As you can see, I've split this up between precious metals that I expect to rise as the dollar weakens and industrial metals that are used in these big infrastructure projects. Now, here's my rationale behind this, and I could go on for hours about the flaws of government fiscal policy, but the short and sweet of it is this: Uncle Sam will never stop spending. The government will never live within its means. The debt will continue to spiral out of control, and the money printer will keep being used to fill the gap between what comes in and what goes out. And that gap, also known as the deficit, is widening. And this is under some of the best economic conditions we have seen in decades. Wait until things turn south. They will print trillions more just like they did during COVID.
Here is our current situation and why I believe inflation is likely to go higher and not lower. We have a global picture of stimulus spending, of quantitative easing, of issuing mass amounts of debt. We have a money supply at a record $137 trillion and climbing. All of this is taking place when central banks across the globe are cutting rates and expected to continue doing so into 2026. In what universe does inflation not get worse under these conditions? It is an unavoidable reality. I am not doom and gloom, but I'd have to be borderline mentally handicapped to think prices are going to come down with this as a backdrop. And this is going to be a tailwind for asset prices for many years to come. Gold and silver will probably double again. Energy prices will soon be twice what they are today. Hence our 25% allocation there.
So here's where I'm putting dollars in the metals bucket. Again, half to precious metals, half to industrials. The anchor position of the precious metals is of course gold. Now, the most liquid ETF is GLD. I'm using GLDM. It's exact same, backed by physical. No difference except that the share price is lower. I think GLDM, as of this recording, is somewhere around $70 a share, whereas GLD is somewhere around $320. This was really designed for retail investors, whereas GLD was designed for institutional investors. So if you're trying to get a $200 million position in gold, buy GLD. If you're looking for 10 or 20 or $100,000, GLDM has a slightly lower management fee. I think it's like 10 basis points versus 40. Okay, so gold, the go-to inflation hedge, the currency hedge.
Another 3% to silver, and I'm doing this via SLV. Uh, silver is a currency metal just like gold. It also has a lot of commercial uses due to its high electrical conductivity. So silver tends to be a bit more volatile, which means it goes up more in a good run, it comes down more in a bad run. So I've weighted it slightly toward gold. And then another 2% I am putting into palladium. Palladium is a bit of an overlooked precious metal. It is the rarest, most scarce metal out there. It is also critical in use for things like fuel cells and automotive catalytic converters. So I've done that via the ETF PALL. And then finally, a 3% allocation to the mining sector. Now, what I've used is GDXJ. This is the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. There is also GDX, which is the larger cap gold miners. Um, because it is such a smaller position of my portfolio, I'm comfortable going with the juniors. Again, it is slightly more volatile. The other nice thing about the GDXJ is that it is split between gold and silver. So, it's like 80% gold miners, 20% silver miners. So, that's my 12% to precious metals.
Now, the other 13% of this 25% is going to industrial metals. And I've split this between the ones I think are going to perform the best. 3% to copper via COPX. Uh, copper is critical for data centers. It is used in electric vehicles. They need to expand the grid. No way copper demand does not increase. Another 3% to lithium and battery materials. The ETF here is LIT, the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech. Uh, again, this one's pretty self-explanatory. We want the long-term exposure for EVs, for storage growth, etc. I'm also giving a 3% allocation to steel via the VanEck Steel ETF, ticker SLX. And I think we're going to see some benefits here on these larger-scale infrastructure products. At the end of the day, whether it's a data center or a bridge or a government building, steel is going to be used to reinforce and build the frame of these. And you know, if if President Trump is anything, if he's proud of any one thing, it's his construction, him being a builder. And I just see governments globally doing some big infrastructure projects with all this spending. So 3% to SLX. And then finally, 4% to the State Street Mining and Metals ETF, which is XME. This is going to be a blanket miners ETF. It's going to be gold and silver miners. It's going to be steel. It's going to be lithium and copper and lead and all of it. So, broad exposure to the entire mining sector.
And finally, I am putting a 10% weight to real assets and infrastructure. This is achieved with three really simple ETFs. So, I've got 4% going to PAVE, PAVE. Uh, this is the infrastructure theme here. And this is going to be a fund that benefits from grid upgrades and power distribution and the digital infrastructure exposure. In other words, data centers, etc. So, all big infrastructure projects, uh, the companies that get the bulk of their business from those are in this ETF, ticker PAVE. I've also got a 3% allocation to farmland via the LAND ETF. The Gladstone Land Corp agricultural real estate is one of the most recession-proof things out there. And right now, this ETF, for whatever reason, is way, way, way down in price. It currently has a 5.5% dividend yield. It trades below book value. So, here late November 2025, at least, it is to me a great time to buy this ETF. And then finally, the last 3% goes to soft commodities, things like cattle and corn and soybeans and cotton and all the stuff we consume every day where this tailwind of inflation is likely to send those prices higher. So, it's a big agriculture commodity bucket, and I've achieved this via DBA, the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund.
Okay, so this is my plan. Will it outperform the market? I hope so. It definitely feels safer than betting on a continuation of the AI bubble, but there are no guarantees. Consult your personal financial advisor. Feel free to send him this video. This portfolio is not going to be right for everybody, but it meets my objectives. It aligns with my macroeconomic views, and it will let me sleep soundly at night. Again, be sure to hit the subscribe button down there in the corner, and I will do my best to guide you as we navigate these unique times in the investment markets.