Transcription
They need to create chaos. It's a good time to bring the pain because they may get rates down and some money going back into bonds, uh, to be, to, to reestablish it as a credible asset class.
What is happening in the world of gold and silver? Silver crashed over 8% yesterday. That's an insane intraday move. Gold was down, of course, as well. Or it cra, I wouldn't say crashed, but it it dipped below 4,000. It's still hovering around that level as we record this here on June 25th at 12:05 p.m. European Central summertime. Uh, gold is trading at 39.87. So, we're still below that very, I wouldn't say very important, but this psychological mark of $4,000 an ounce.
I've invited back Francis Hunt. He's the market sniper. I love chatting with him. He'll give us a lot more color on what is really happening, um, in the precious metal space. But based on that, of course, we can fan it or we can, you know, go in any direction like, what is really weighing on the precious metals? Is it the US dollar? Is it Fed rate hike expectations? Are you kidding me, by the way? Or is it something else? So, we we'll talk about all of this.
Um, before I switch over to my guest, though, hit help us out with the algorithm. Hit that like and subscribe button. Leave a comment down below. We really appreciate it and thank you for it.
So, now Francis, enough of me. It's I can't wait to hear from you. How are How are you doing, Francis?
First of all, very good and glad to be back with you. And second of all, second of all, in terms of gold, uh, I do have some answers for you. Uh, and as we were talking off screen, I think if I were to give you one word right now, uh, it would be distress. Uh, and that's a liquidity-based uh distress that I would imagine. And typically the dollar is the distress currency. Um, we've made lots of uh big calls on that. We are waiting to have transpire on macro. When I say big, I don't mean, I mean time frame calls, bigs, but require big moves, for example, on the USD Korean Won, uh, and also to some degree on the USD Japanese Yen. And these point to dollar strength movements against Asian currencies, particularly on the the KRW. We think that's going to bring a huge um moment. And what usually is surrounded with this, when you look at the KRW, for example, the Korean Won, the big distress came in the Asian crisis and the dollar got bid. That was the '90s, the late '90s. You might recall it, but you're a little younger than me then, Kai, so maybe you don't. Uh, then of course, there was the 2007-8 uh crisis, which was another major surge moment in weakness for the Won um, and that was a key economic crisis. So literally, when you look at economic crisis um on that particular currency pair, which is not the most typical one, but it's it's an interesting one, USD KRW, you see all the major economic events bookmarked for you. And it's the the key theme is dollar dominance spike, uh, move, and loss of value in what is a first-world country in the Korean Won. You that makes lots of very useful things. It's far from being a third-world country. It's a small country, so it's still classified as emergent, but uh, we are seeing that come again. And that's associated with USD dominance. And I call it the distress because, as I mentioned, Asian crisis, subprime crisis, you had a bit a third little bump on the events of COVID-19. Um, and now we're getting to what I think is our next major crisis. Hence why I gave you the heading distress and dollar is the crisis currency. So, what we're talking about is a dollar strength but on on contagion and panic, uh, moment. So, I give you that and say that's playing into the distress. But people are still selling or the cash price, uh, and other people you'll speak to will say, well, um, who's taking delivery at these levels? The institutions and the big central banks. Uh, in fact, if we look at China, um, the last five months, the reason America didn't set new records in deficits, trade deficits with China, is because they've been transferring in the product category. So, there's products and services. The single biggest item line item in the product category is gold. So, they are actually transferring real money to China, and China is a willing buyer, uh, uh, recipient of that, rather than the purchaser of Treasuries, which is also why we have had the rate pressure recently on the bond markets. So, all of this is about distress, liquidity, and a pending economic crisis. And I think it gets worse before it gets better. Um, so that's the fundamental argument. You know me as a technician, so let's look at the charts if you're ready for me to do that.
Absolutely. So, the interesting part about where we are, Kai, and it's great that we're talking here on Thursday the 25th of June, is there's only Friday and then Monday and Tuesday left, and then a key data period is locked. And that is the six-month uh chart. And I'm going to put you on the six-month, but I've actually got it on a a full year. And if you look at the candles, we've had this great move. You will recall the the three-year frustration under 2,000. We were just trading into 2,000 and we rejected three times. And we said, once, twice, three times, then a lady, you will blast from 2,000 and you will leave that number behind, never to be seen again. Well, we sure did blast it. We gave it, we said the first level is 3,000. We then had mid-September return to death for the bankers last year, the 25th. And we said that's another triggering point. At that point, you were already at the 3,000 targets. And then we ended up with a runoff to the 56. That was January this year. So, this was all throughout this period. That particular candle you're looking at right now is what's called a shooting star. So, it's a blow-off, exhaustion, and pullback.
Now, I'm going to take it to the the six-month because the year isn't done. That candle's only half baked in. That if we if we go for six months, uh, you'll appreciate that we're only three days away uh from locking that candle and not too much is likely to change. I want people to see the fullness of the chart, you know, since literally uh the Fed that's removed my scribbles there, uh, and you can see that that is exhaustive and down. So, when you get a six-month like that, this is push kicking me out more medium long-term that the pullback is going to take some time to work itself out. It's bigger than people think. It's going to have a crisis associated with it. And we're already seeing some of that distress selling in the cash price. And China is getting to accumulate far cheaper silver and gold in the physical markets. And the money and the wealth is still moving east in an ever faster way. But the US is doubling down on dollar dominance. And Bessant recently has been making a lot of quiet parts loud statements on that in terms of the dollar. So, shooting star, this candle is normally going to be followed by another red candle, typically. So, whenever you've had shooting stars, I'm looking for a good example uh in the current gold chart. I think I'll find better examples. We don't have too many such. You started to get shooting stars here. You can see you ended up with a bare move that followed. This is a very aggressive one after we have to bear in mind from that 2000 call you had on the six-month chart, that's a green candle. That's one. I'll just count them out for you, by the way, from the consolidation, one, two, three, four, five, whoops, that's five over there, that's six and seven six-month candles. That's half a year. Seven. That's three and a half years of every six-month period closing higher and accelerating continually into that. Everybody now wants to throw the baby out of the bathwater, uh, or throw the bathwater out the baby. I don't know which one. I'm getting my dyslexia provoked here and my autism all at once. But the key thing is everyone's mad as all hell now because you're going to lock in your first red candle in seven greens from the 2000 event that we sat with you uh way back. We were talking back tail end of '23 saying, once, twice, three times, fourth time a lady, you're running. You're not seeing 2K again. Uh, and I and I don't think you will be seeing 2K again, but you could see lower numbers. So, typically what follows this six-month, if it locks basically where it is now, is probably at a red candle, maybe with a deep wick test down on a crisis. And I can point you to here was COVID-19's, by the way, that's how you shake off a crisis. That was the the COVID sell-off. Did it spoil the bull market that you were in? No, it didn't.
That was the global financial crisis, Francis. Sorry.
GFC. Subprime. I've got the wrong one. The COVID is because I'm on such a big time frame. Thank you for correcting me, by the way. I don't like talking nonsense. Uh, and I was uh, the the COVID-19 actually did have a sell-off. It doesn't even reflect on the six-monthly. Uh, I was uh assuming that was it there until I checked down there. That was the whole of a subprime, a depression, as far as I'm concerned. Bank failures. Uh, a number of countries that were two years basically uh without growth uh in a row. That was a depression. That was what gold did during that midway, only to trade higher. So, people need to calm down. I think you'll probably get uh another red candle, possibly, but you could trade down. You could make a little body. You could have a downside wick. And by the end of the six-month, maybe this is back green again, and you've shaken it off, and then you're ready to go uh further. So, that was gold. Let me hand back to you, and you can call me in if you want me to go through silver.
Yeah, absolutely. We'll talk silver in a second. I'm just curious, like, it it feels like, just looking at the, and I'm not a chart technician by any means, but it feels like we might be seeing a sec a third, fourth cup here being built out as well. Um, do you see any reason to believe that that could happen? Like, you you just mentioned US dollar strength, for example. Um, that could be a headwind for for gold, uh, in particular. Bond yields are dropping as well. Um, you know, dropping is a maybe strong word, but going lower, at least. Um, so, yeah, what are the odds of that?
The the problem they have is they have 10 trillion to roll again. Uh, rates are very, very high. And the only way you have left to get a bit of money to run in the bond market. Don't forget our call in 2020 was the turn of the bond market in September. Since then, it was validated by Drakenbiller and Paul Tudor Jones in 2024 saying, in terms of debt, that market is a busted flush. You should not be long bonds in any sense on medium or long time frames entirely. And that they will actively look for opportunities to short it. So, the entire 60/40 portfolio blew up, which had replaced the fact that gold and silver used to be one of the third parts of a portfolio in terms of protecting inflation, got sidelined during the suppressionary era. We're talking about this era. Why do you need that useless shiny old metal that you know you dig in a ground and you then put in some other hole in the ground? All these things doesn't pay you interest. All of that. The suppressionary era, which was quite lengthy, it ran from the '80s into the 2000s. Well, after they pulled all the liquidity experiments they did, that's what set up that uh surge from 250, Gordon Brown's bottom, as we like to remember in Britain, right the way through to 2000, virtually, in 2011. So, uh, gold should be part of everybody's portfolio. And bonds have been diminished immensely. How do they roll that? While they need them not to be a busted flush continually going down. The world doesn't look at debt in the same way. Other nations are not looking at US Treasuries in the same way. The biggest buyers are the vassal states: Japan, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, and of course, the Ruse, that is Cayman Islands, right there under the belly in the beast where all the retired Goldman Sachs, uh, play, you know, executives go to play golf. So, that's hardly uh organic support in my worldview, uh, for the treasury market. And the rest that are independent of thought have been moving away. Problem, especially when you've got a parabola of issuance still to continue. All this expenditure, you're building the surveillance state through the hyperscalers, AI, and data centers. And you need people to continue to fund that. There's been a positioning of that now as a too big to fail. It's an existential crisis. We have to win the AI war. It's the new Cold War. It's the new space race. It's the new, and this is statism making this a new imperative so that they can justify bailouts and support for the tech unicorns, at socializing the costs of their malfeasant, fraudulent investors on the likes of the masses. Uh, and this is why the passive buying of ETFs are going to be supporting that. So, these are the crisis. Your question started well, could, you know, is this, what is bringing this about? There's a liquidity crisis. They need to create chaos. It's a good time to bring the pain because they may get rates down and some money going back into bonds, uh, to be, to, to reestablish it as a credible asset class. And only fear and distress of high levels can truly bring the rates, uh, down, particularly on the longer end, uh, which has been a one-way journey up. Long run, they don't win. Debt never uh, gets the credibility it had uh, during the 60/40 portfolio era of the early '80s to the 2000s. Um, it's only uh, losing ground. And gold will be capital preservation and will be coming back. So, we're having a temporary pullback. It's not as temporary as it looks because there's going to be some degree of contagion and crisis. I think the private credit, the borrowing, the investment has been super sketchy. And I think that's going to be found out. And we're going to hear about it. And there's going to be knock-on effects. Uh, and the the sad part is retail carries the can for their malfeasants. You know, the socialization of that cost will be brought to bear on us, which is why there's so much emphasis on saying, you know, it's imperative we win this. You know, uh, I don't think money wins it alone. China is doing things a lot cheaper. And I don't think America wins it at all. Generally, I think the Chinese on tech, you see what BYD's done on batteries to Tesla. Tesla hasn't grown in four years, uh, with despite having its start and California credit money. So, I think the AI race will be won by the East.
No, you you make some excellent points there, Francis. And I feel like if I ask you about stable coins now, um, I I'll trigger you and we'll go down the wrong rabbit hole here. Um, but you need to create that demand, as you said, and cheaper prices for bonds help you create demand, especially if you plan to launch stable coins. Um, you you need an attractive pricing model. Absolutely. So, um, maybe that's the only thing we'll say about it because that's a whole different discussion, the whole stable coin topic. But, um, trying to think like, if we covered all the bases on gold, just maybe you want to talk about the effects of potential rate hikes real quick. You you touched on it tangentially, tangentially already, Francis, like sort of what the effects are. Um, but any immediate or direct impact? Let's let's say the Fed hikes in 30 days at the next meeting here at the end of July. Um, any direct impact on on the precious metals?
Uh, I think you're getting a lot of that impact now. What shocks me is that the reaction by Wall Street to the dot plot. First of all, it was only three or 5% expectation of a rate hike, and they never provided a rate hike. So, they Wall Street got their expectations, no hike. The reaction came on the dot plot, where nine out of 18 people were stating that they see at least one and possibly two. And there was one person who saw possibly three rate moves between now and the year-end. And my question to how could you react so violently to this concept? And I think this is all theater and arranged when you at 3.8% 8% last month on a target of 2%, which is 90% above where you should be. And then you get another 0.4% just last week Wednesday increase on your CPI, taking you to 4.2. So, not only are you 90% above in altitude where you should be, you've just turned into a rocket and you're mooning at 0.4% 4% further in a single month to the upside. How on earth can you be astounded that some people think that uh rate uh increases may be needed if you are even semi-serious about the inflation uh mandates? In fact, the question to me is, what are the nine that aren't thinking about rate increases actually doing there if they're happy with 3.8 becoming 4.2 two in one month on a target of 2%? What are they thinking that they aren't seeing a single rate hike? So, to me, I thought it was over over the top uh reaction. I think the losses that you'll see or the cash price, let's remember, it's not uh what's going on in the casino price, is not what you'll end up paying to have delivered, but what's going on in the the casino pricing is already pricing in the expectation of at least some rate prices. Yes, it will go a little bit further, but I think very quickly on gold and silver, we'll start to hit uh floors. So, the reaction, the market is a forward discounting mechanism. So, what you're already seeing is already bearing in mind that at least one of those rate hikes may indeed happen. Possibly, it might be pricing in 1.8 hikes, for example. Um, and so there will be a little bit of a reaction, but maybe not as much as you think on the basis that some of it's already being priced.
No, I appreciate that, Francis. Um, I think we can all agree, like gold reacts aggressively to headlines these days, which has me a bit, I wouldn't say concerned, but I'm I'm puzzled perhaps why it is reacting so much. Let's talk silver. Let's switch gears because silver was, I the move I I need to describe it as violent yesterday. It was over 8%. Uh, it dipped down to 56.23. We're we're higher now, fortunately, but, uh, of course, we're not out of the woods yet. Uh, 57.47 as we speak, Francis. I'm really curious what your thoughts are on, uh, you know, gold's little brother.
Well, it's always the higher beta. I'm going to make I'm going to make one quick comment just before I deal with silver on something you didn't want to go too far down on, and that's the stable coins and Treasuries. I'll make one comment and one fact. The biggest, uh, the the notion that stable coins will bail out as huge buyers and will shore up the bond market. The biggest, uh, owner, uh, the biggest stable coin is Tether USDT. Its total market cap is 186, and um, they've purchased, I think, in the regions of around 140 to 160 billion, >> in, uh, in, in collateral. And they more recently been looking to add gold and even gold miners and have added gold and gold miners. So, they may not even have 160 billion. This is was established in 2014, and that's its total market cap today. And if I tell you what that percent is, I had the math done because I was having to deal with this trope that was becoming really popular, that, you know, stable coins is going to hold up the bond market. But that is the biggest and the largest. Uh, and 160 billion, the issuance in one two-month period was in and around 600, uh, billion. M um, so you didn't even cover 40% of two months' new issuance, never mind everything that's been issued. And I did the numbers of 60 billion on the 38 trillion, and you are talking not even a little boy's pippy in the ocean, uh, in terms of backup. Now, people will say, well, there's more than just Tether, there's USDC, and there's, and they will all follow the same. And there's others. You can multiply it by five. It's still five little boys' pippy in the ocean. Um, it is not going to be holding up, uh, the market. That is cope. People taking refuge. You just have to look at the numbers on on that. It's not going to happen. And stable coins would have to become 36 to 38 trillion in total of market cap to actually be offering that level of to anywhere close to that level. And I mean, they're miles off that at this moment.
Absolutely. So, there's a lot I
I appreciate that statement. Yeah. No, I appreciate that.
It can't happen, but there would be a bunch of market caps are going to have to go very big, very fast. Uh, and a whole bunch of new buyers showing up. So, silver is very much similar to gold. Of course, the correlation is there. Even higher beta. This is a blow-off rejection. The candle now has got almost too big the candle body to be referred to as a shooting star. Although I will say the wick is still substantially longer than the body. Um, so it is it it is similar to that of a shooting star, probably just stretching beyond the acceptable lap because normally those are referred to as small bodies. That's usually means about 20 20% of the total range, uh, are involved. This is beyond that. It's probably about, uh, you know, 25 or 30% maybe. Um, but it's still a massive rejection to a blow-off. We'll point out that we were getting in long on the primer wind here, um, when our best friend Brent Johnson was, uh, saying the pilgrims of silver are going to get excited, that's going to go above $25 again. At the $25 point, we've had an amazing ride. And on the lower time frames, we got out of our leverage positions at 118 and we even tweeted it at 111 out. You know, we're done with leverage. In terms of blue pot accumulation, I think you're going to get an amazing opportunity. Although I stress again, um, the delivery price is vaguely related to the cash casino price. There'll be a lot of other costs. There might be premiums. You could have discounts if you get people that are in distress. So, you could have one of the best buying opportunities, but you should expect the next six-month period to have at least a range that dips deeper down. Uh, it could be a red-bodied candle. It could be a green near the end because six months is a long time. But you would expect with this level of momentum to the downside, if we're going into distress, and I think that's going to be hyperscalers, AI, private credit debt, maybe a bit of the, you know, crisis on other nations, possibly a war escalation with Russia. Who knows? Any number. We've got so many risks to the downside that uh, you will have, you will trade lower at the moment on silver. Uh, and it's going to be presenting amazing blue pot unleveraged purchasing, uh, opportunities to me. Uh, but it will likely during the six-month per continue this momentum because this is violent and it doesn't stop on a dime.
Francis, can I ask you to elaborate a bit more on the range that you just mentioned? Like, where do you see the bottom of the range, if that's even definable? Um, just trying to put some context around it. Um, I had a guest on the other day on my German channel. He said 45 to 55. Uh, you drew that line a little bit lower, which has me nervous, of course, because I think you the line intentionally or not ended at 38 here. So, I'm curious where do you see the range, Francis?
It's important to mention that there is a technical 45 to 50 uh breakout zone. And I would imagine that to be tested. And I think at a wick level, you could trade through it, but not close beneath it. So, what is typical? We in our rules, we talk about key levels. I prefer zones than trying to put in one exact number. You can call that the 50, the hard ceiling. And you can call the soft ceiling the 45, if you like. So, we had a $5 mark where we traded into but didn't close. All of these candle bodies are well below even 45. I can tell you what this one is. Uh, the highest one of 1980. The open was $37. That's $37. So, you didn't get any form of candle closure in the 45 zone. I could have even made it 40 to 50. So, that's a a void zone. We really battled to close in that. Now, we broke above that. That turns into support. You could get a wick down to, you know, into the 30s potentially, um, but not close there. And the eventual six-month hammer closes, I would say, is still above 50. But you will have traded maybe a $37 during the six-month period. So, a a very good negating candle. If we were to get our best outcome, bear in mind, this is not guaranteed. Your best outcome of rejection, you go into a crisis, you sell off, and you'd have something like this. Ideally, a green candle here that will be in the 50s. Let's say it closes where we are now, 57, and you get a testing wick like that. That tests that 40 to 50 zone. The way I've drawn it, it's more like 45. Uh, well, actually, maybe it is 40 because this is 37. Uh, 40 to 50 zone. You can trade in here intra period, but it's not a closing point. In other words, the zone of the 40/50 uh survives a temporary test, but not a close below, uh, or in it. And that would be a great hammer that would negate the bearish momentum to the downside that you've got going. But this is still going to be some form of a crisis. You could dip a little lower. You might even get to 30. For us, the HBF setup, the funnel is here. We didn't. Most people are cup and handle traders. To them, everything happened here. We were already long on a priming squeeze in here. And the main HVF funnel, which is often tested, is in and around the 30, the 29, 30. So, you could be very unlucky if it's a massive crisis and a credit, and you have a 60% crash in the NASDAQ, and everybody's in trouble, and everybody's had margin debt, and now everything's being sold, and it's it's auctioned. Think of the lows of post Lehman, the absolute drama of post Lehman. The financial pages have now become the front pages, you know, uh, if you get that that sentiment, it's not beyond the possibility that you get that. This is not a prediction. It's not my highest probability prediction, but it can happen. And that would be an unbelievable entry. Uh, just like that. And this was a hammer that rejected the the COVID-19 event. Now I've got it right. Uh, thanks for keeping me honest, by the way. Um, and the, uh, subprime, where was the subprime contagion? You know, that was the subprime contagion sell-off. And that's in silver, the far more skittish, higher beta. They, you all went on upwards afterwards. So, these were big events, and the market went up. Um, and this was a big event. And, you know, good luck trying to get it at just $115. Most people paid 14. But if we've got a lot of people in distress, you could even have a discount. Right now, uh, I'm being able to purchase with a discount >> to spot. So, that tells me there's distress. And that's why I hand you back that number, that that headline word. And that's a liquidity distress, by the way.
Phenomenal. No, re really, really insightful there, Francis. I'm a little worried, of course, about 38 or $40, but, uh, as long as it stays intraday or within a very short time period, I'm I guess I'm okay.
On a six-month chart, by the way. So, intra period, that six month is a long time. So, you'll have quite a few days and weeks where you will close possibly at those levels.
Yeah. A good thing we're sitting on a lot of cash in the fund as well. So, I'm quite excited. And our, uh, even the asset management firm, we're sitting about 35, 40% cash in the investor accounts, which is exciting because I want to go shopping at some point. And weird to say, but sitting in dollars, maybe in money markets, if it's is maybe not a bad thing, because the currency I think is going to benefit from the distress, uh, and short-term yield, uh, a little bit of yield on it, or in solid banking institutions outside of the West. That's my preference. Um, and and even stable coins, um, is a is a good hold right now. And my hedging, by the way. So, some people might think, well, will you short it, Francis? Will you short the silver market? Will you short the gold market? What are you going to do to generate alpha? What I'm shorting is the higher beta, more exposed, in my opinion, further away floor, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the top 10 cryptos as my hedge, because you will note that stock market having a ropey time.
Difficult to catch the index at the peak moment. I do have shorts on MicroStrategy, however, note the crypto 3, the theme, and I have had them for a long time. I bought options for that, and I've since put on CFDs. So, I'm expecting the him to come under mass pressure if we have liquidity distress. The easily sold, you know how Bitcoin maxis have always featurized how easy it is to move money. Guess what? That's not so useful. It's better to be in a house which is difficult to sell than something that's very easy to sell when everyone's looking for liquidity. Uh, and they'll tell you how much better it is to move around and easier to sell than gold. Well, you'll see how much that feature works for you now when everybody panics and needs to sell. So, actually, I've been benefiting from the sell-off in Bitcoin. And I've chosen to short there as part of my hedging. And we are net up, and we're building cash reserves for fresh investments. And I'm going to try to pick uh a low and get myself some deals on silver and gold at some point in the future. So, I'm not mortified by this development. Uh, I'm just not leverage long trading the metals at the moment on the basis that they could put in lower numbers. So, that's how I'm choosing to play this. It's it's kind of the question you never asked, but I thought I would offer a response.
No, I appreciate it because like the opportunity that we're being presented with now is fantastic. And in long long term, I think all the analysts agree gold and silver will go higher. And this is maybe one of the last few buying opportunities here. It doesn't mean it's today or tomorrow, but, uh, as you said, within that time frame, within that period. So, that's really exciting. Um, Francis, we're already over our time, but I do have one last question because, you know, you're for for me, you're Mr. Short oil, long gold. That's what it was in 2025 was a big trend for you again.
So, I'm I'm curious like what that correlation, short oil, long gold. Um, of course, different scenarios now, but I'm curious where do you stand on oil and, uh, what correlation works best here?
Um, so oil, we're bearish. So, the part of the story is we've got this uh dot plot anxiety that suddenly come to uh the the fourth, uh, Kai. And we were once early on a a short call on oil and wrong. We got the second one finally, uh, right. Um, and we're aggressively short. And they need the inflation number to come down to take the pressure off the interest rates for all that they need to roll. >> And they need some dollar dominance and a crashing debt market. And uh is not good for dollar dominance. So, they need some bids to come into bonds so that people exit their euros, exit their Korean Won, exit their Japanese Yen. There's a discussion on both of those. And we are long USD KRW, long USD JPY, short oil. All of those are dollar dominance trades right now. U because they need that dollar to start getting pumped up again. They've done a bit of weak dollar, and now we're in, um, we need the, you know, we need the strong dollar bits to come. And this is, uh, oil. We have targets to the low 60s. And we were short up top here in the 90s, um, but we got it wrong the first call. Round about here, we had another inflation. This is an inverted HVF structure. So, I'll show it to you. Uh, and it is a turn. I want to make a point. A lot of people that weren't in the call for oil to go up tried to get ahead of it once the once all moves happened. And they do that by just shouting out a big number. And there were a lot of $200 callers, uh, on on the basis of this. And we were never, uh, someone who's saying you're going to $200, $250. The expectation of what that would do inflationary with just, and I just show you something, Kai, and I'm sorry we're taking you a little bit longer, but this is so interesting.
You wanted to go. No, absolutely. No, no. I I would have cut you off if I thought there was no no valid point here. So, please continue.
Point is, you didn't spend much time above this 100 level. These are little islands above the pink line that I'm showing you. You had a spike there. The bulk of it is in the sort of 99 to $87 range. This is your volume by price, by the way. So, 70% since here is in that price point in now. That's what you got a 0.4 increase on a 3.8 with oil at those prices. Try think about the inflationary effect of $250 oil instead of the aggregate here is probably about 87 over this period. You're talking at 250, you're talking about $180 more than what we've had. Try think about business, tourism, flying, driving, packaging, delivering from purchasing on Amazon. Just try to think of what an already pretty flat retail economy would be like if that really, really happened. And the only way they fix this, dollar dominance also brings the oil price down. Quick deal on the horm situation where they're actually sending money the other way. It's hardly sounds like a victory to me. This means the pressure on the bond market and rates is determining everything. Hence why we say fiat and debt-based collapse is the main story. They can't take it. They can't take the rates. They can't take the bond market being weakened. They can't take the high inflation. They need it down. He wants lower numbers. The target there is 63.82 on this particular contract. And it's the first in a new trend. We expect overperformance. You could get into the 50s and possibly lower in a bid to get that inflation number under control. They need the strong dollar. They need oil down. And we were short early on that. Uh, our long on the silver didn't work, though, so we must own up to that. And we got out. We had very tight stops. The minute Walsh and the dot plot came out so hawkish, we were done and out, uh, taken out. We had very tight stops. We were trading that potentially to the long side. Got it completely wrong. I'm still amazed that people are shocked that people wanted to increase rates, but, you know, I don't understand how Wall Street. I'm not a banker. I'm not amongst them. I'm a dude on a YouTube channel in a far away island, so I don't know what they're thinking, but it should have gone to me. I felt it should be normal that at least half. I'm like I say, I'm wondering what the other half are thinking. But anyway, they're trying to get this now under control. Oil is down for us.
Yeah. And we also have midterm elections coming up. It probably plays a little a little role in the whole schematic here or in the whole theme. So, uh, exciting times we live in, eh? It doesn't get boring. And we never run out of topics to talk about. Francis, we we again, we could go on for hours. There's so much more we could talk about, not just charts, but uh, overall developments in the market, in the SP. It's it's phenomenal. Um, Francis, tremendously appreciate your time. We'll have to do this again soon. Um, where can we send our audience in case they just don't know where to find you yet?
Yep. Uh, we trust charts, not what people say. Um, generally, it gives you an on-balance of probabilities opportunity to be right. We're net continuation traders, which is why this oil call is also quite interesting because it's essentially a reversal call. Um, but it showed the DNA in it that we suspected that possibility. You can find us on YouTube under the market sniper. We also cover the crypto markets under the crypto sniper and on X under the market sniper. Please watch out for fraudulent profiles. Just because it has my picture doesn't mean it's me, the market sniper. Links are on our our website also the market sniper.com and under our YouTube show notes. Those are all strong and locked in if you wish to book a call and chat to us how we and we achieved three things we want to do for our clients: build wealth through trading through crisis. And this crisis is going to bring an opportunity. Sadly, most people will be in pain. You can be one of those that is disproportionately in cash during this period and at the same time protect that crisis. It's been saying that Europe was going tax scavenge mode for the last six, seven years. Now you're hearing about it. I've never seen more mentions of unrealized capital gains tax. Most of them are Western nations now.
South Korea now as well.
South Korea as well got added to that, which is a Western access nation, even though it's far east, much like Japan. Um, so you need to expand your jurisdiction as well for where you can live because the government is coming for all your wealth. This is a tilt towards uh an attack vector on private asset ownership. You'll be forced to slowly sell off to meet tax demands until you own nothing and are very unhappy. Don't let it happen to you. Take action now. You start with uh your subscription to the market sniper YouTube channel.
Fantastic. That's a very strong sales pitch, Francis, and one I can strongly relate to. So, tremendously appreciate your time. Really appreciate you coming on. Well, as I said, we have to do this again soon. There's so much going on. I'm really looking forward to the fall and to see where we're at in early September. Maybe right right around Labor Day. Uh, I think that's September 7th, if I'm not mistaken, in the US. So, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Fantastic. Francis, thank you so much for your time. Everybody else, thank you so much for watching. Really, really insightful conversation here with Francis Hunt, the market sniper. I'm really curious what you're thinking. Where's silver going? Where's gold going? Put that in the comments down below. Every comment, of course, comment, of course, also helps with the algorithm. Same as the likes and the subscriptions to our channel. We tremendously appreciate the support. As you can see, I do on this side have a silver play button now to share with you. Thank you so much for the support. It means a lot to us and, uh, we we can't wait to continue the conversations here on this channel. We'll have to bring Francis back, of course, in early fall to see where we're at in the market as well. Thank you so much for tuning in. Don't let the emotions run your investments for you and, uh, take care out there.