Trump/Elon War Changes Everything

Well, the bromance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is over.

In case you missed it, here are the highlights from the very public breakup that we all got to watch in real time yesterday. It all started during the live Q&A from the Oval Office, where Trump said that he was disappointed in Elon for coming out against the big, beautiful bill. He said that Elon knew the inner workings of the bill better than anyone and had no problem with it. But now, all of a sudden, he has a problem with it. To which Elon posted on X, saying that’s a lie, that he never even saw the bill, and nobody in Congress even had time to read the bill because it was pushed out in the dead of the night. That quickly devolved from there into an insane back-and-forth ping-ponging between X and Truth Social. Elon said Trump would have lost the election without him. Trump said Elon was wearing thin and went crazy. Elon dropped his really big bomb, saying that Trump is in the Epstein files. Trump fired back, saying that the easiest way to save money in the budget is to terminate all of Elon’s government contracts. Elon said, “Okay, SpaceX is going to decommission that Dragon spacecraft immediately.” Trump said Elon’s turning against me. Elon said Trump tariffs are going to cause a recession this year.

Bottom line, Trump thinks the big beautiful bill is the greatest thing that Congress has ever seen. And Elon thinks Congress is spending America into bankruptcy. Now all we have to do is figure out what this means for investors.

Today on Dumb Money, how the Trump-Elon war changes everything. This is Dumb Money Live. [Music]

Hey there, Dave here along with Chris and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. Quick reminder to smash the like button. Help us out with the almighty algorithm. Uh, thumbs up if you’re team Elon, of course. Also, thumbs up if you’re team Trump. Basically, uh, smash the like button. I don’t think the down thumb even works, uh, or the heart on X, or you know, whatever podcast you’re listening to. Just find a way to tell the algorithm that you like us.

Chris: Jordan, I nearly got worked up about that. It was quite a day yesterday. Who would have ever predicted that the uh, two billionaires of the world’s biggest egos would not be BFFs forever?

Jordan: Forever, forever. Everybody. Um, so I actually predicted in 2025 that somehow that this partnership would end. We knew it. We just didn’t know it was going to flame out this spectacularly in public for all of us to watch. I had to pull over my car, cancel a meeting, and just sit on X and watch the thing unfold while trying to mentally process how I should trade around it.

Chris: You called me kind of early in the process, and I was like, uh, yeah, I don’t think it’s going to escalate too much. And then, like, I nearly fell out of my chair when the Epstein uh, thing was tweeted on X.

Jordan: The Epstein thing was big. Um, that’s when it got real.

Chris: I thought that it was pretty mild until until that. I have a poll running on YouTube uh, chat right now. Team Elon or team Trump. 81% of our audience right now is team Elon. 19% team Trump. That’s subject to change throughout the uh, course of today’s uh, discussion. But can we start at the beginning because Elon had just wrapped up his side job working with Doge. It was uh, he was back at Tesla. The stock was up 30% in the month leading up to that Oval Office ceremony where Trump gave him the key to the Oval Office or the White House. I’m pretty sure he changed the locks yesterday. Um, the very next day after getting that key, Elon went all in trying to kill the bill, and in less than a week, Tesla stock dropped like a rock.

Dave: Well, Dave, step back even further than that. Elon, right, gave up a lot.

Chris: Oh, yeah. Just reputationally, financially, this entire political kind of, you know, last eight months. Uh, Elon has been in a spiral, a death spiral basically. All of his companies uh, were in the dumps because of this. The only thing that he benefited from was being aligned with the administration and having the tailwind of assistance from this administration in exchange for the hate and the loss of sales and the just emotional spiral of negativity surrounding him and his brands.

Jordan: And when Doge basically, let’s be honest, essentially failed because of the big beautiful bill, essentially rendering Doge useless because of the big beautiful bill.

Chris: I think it failed way before that.

Jordan: And that his intended savings never really panned out.

Chris: Jordan, I disagree. I disagree. And here’s why. I I I I I dis I you have Again, I me and you are at odds on this. It’s not about anything specific in Doge. It’s about a mindset change. It’s about a mindset change that every president has been trying to, to some extent, uh, actually fix the spiraling spending of government, and no one has been successful.

Jordan: Doge, it didn’t matter whether Doge cut 50 billion or a trillion. It was a mindset change that something could be done.

Chris: Now, I know you disagree about the way I’m saying is that his intended, just the Doge cuts, nothing to do with this new bill, just the Doge cuts were supposed to be a trillion dollars a year. That was the that was the that was the promise.

Jordan: Well, originally, it’s not a promise. And it’s probably way smaller than that, Jordan. It was not a promise. It was a goal. It was an objective. It was an

Chris: So goal failed.

Jordan: Goal failed. Okay. Okay, Jordan. That was that was a a high that was that was a stretch goal that whether it failed or or not, he was actually changing the we know before the big beautiful bill came out that we’ve been seeing government spending. We’ve seen the graphs, and it didn’t make a dent versus previous years because of course, beautiful bill.

Chris: Oh my gosh. So what does it have to do with the bill? Of course it didn’t make a dent. Doge could have

Jordan: Why is Am I jittery all of a sudden?

Chris: Yeah, you’re kind of jittery a little bit.

Jordan: Yeah. Did you Did you turn it off and turn it back on again?

Chris: I got to reboot my whole computer here and allow you to like you dominate it for a full minute. That would be horrible.

Jordan: And should I do it for the rest of the episode for the good of the rest of the episode?

Chris: I mean, honestly, I get what you’re saying, Jordan. I get what you’re saying, but it was the first time we had ever shown that any individual entity could actually start to make a tiny move, a

Jordan: All he did was chaos. He was a chaos agent. He was firing people.

Chris: He did. You got to look at where the government spending is, and he’s going after nickels and not after the the

Jordan: Okay, Jordan, I agree. But it needed it should have been followed up with a very different bill.

Chris: No, it should have been No, no, no, no. It should have been a plan from the beginning. So, he should have been creating plans. He should have been looking at spending, creating plans instead of sewing chaos in the United States government.

Jordan: Okay. But Jordan, when has creating plans ever worked when it comes to cutting government spending? Even rem even a tiny bit. Even like this much?

Chris: Never.

Jordan: I don’t care. This is not it’s not how you go about it. It didn’t work. So whatever he did, mission failed.

Chris: Oh, okay. I agree with you. Mission failed because the reality is that he actually naively believed that he could actually set a new tone and that tone would result in a change of thinking in government. And it obviously failed. It did not work. I agree with you on that note because if you look at the big beautiful bill, it’s definitely big. Uh, the extent to which it’s beautiful is debatable obviously. Um, but but it but it failed, and I think Elon really took that personally, and it wasn’t just the big beautiful bill. It was the fact that his guy at NASA got rejected. And if there’s one thing that you can say about Elon, if there’s one thing that I think everybody should be able to agree on when it comes to Elon, it’s that he probably is the best person to identify leadership when it comes to space uh, innovation.

Jordan: Okay, that’s like a non-political thing. And the guy that Elon put up to head up NASA, I guess, made a few hundred thousand dollars of donations at one point uh, to Democrats. And that and that alone uh, was enough for Trump and his team to overrule Elon. And I think that more than anything else, quite honestly, was the thing that put Elon over the edge because that is something that nobody needed to do. Like you could say the big beautiful bill was like, you know, big political. It’s very hard to to to actually cut defense, to actually cut uh, entitlement programs. It’s hard politically to cut the budgets anyway. It Nobody wants nobody wants to vote for someone who’s going to say, “I’m raising taxes and cutting benefits,” but everybody wants lower cost of everything. It’s it’s like it’s politically suicide to try to um, to try to cut budgets. So Elon inserted himself in saying, “Hey, I’m willing to be the scapegoat and try to cut the budgets and try to reduce our spending and try to find fraud and waste.” And it turned out to be a task that was just there were too many obstacles for him to actually be effective at that.

Chris: But Dave, do you know what would have been really easy and that this was this was the FU in his face was just to give him his space, his NASA guy. Yeah. like like no one there was no reason to overrule Elon uh, when it came to literally just allowing him to have at least a little bit of influence over the NASA program, which has obviously been so like just you know, we don’t even have to go there. I no one will debate that that Elon has made much bigger strides when it comes to space technology than anything that NASA has done the last 20 years. So, I think that’s what put him over the edge.

Dave: But let’s here’s the thing, guys. I think everybody is looking at this the wrong way right now. Everyone’s trying to figure out if, you know, how this is going to impact Tesla, if they’re on the ins, if on their outs. Everyone’s making like big decisions right now. I don’t think that’s how we should look at this. If you look at the history of Trump and you look at the history of Elon, Trump is a really temperamental guy. He’s really emotional. So is Elon, right? I think that the way that this unfolds over the next two to three years is has yet to be written. And I actually think there will be ups and downs. I think there will be moments over the next couple of years when we think maybe they patched this up enough to where we can put this behind us, and then there will be moments that we realize, oh no, what did Elon just say, right? Or what did Trump just say that’s going to piss off Elon? That’s going to ignite a potential escalation cycle again. So, if you recall when Elon was getting aggressively involved with Trump initially, um, every single time there would be a moment that would benefit the two of them, people rushed even deeper into Tesla stock, right? I the postelection runup, it it didn’t happen all at once. It hap it happened in waves.

Chris: Y I think that this is an opportunity not to make any huge decisions now that you’re going to dig your heels into as an investor, but this is an opportunity to say, you know what, we are now in a fast-trading environment as it relates to Tesla. Meaning, you need to hang on every single word. And it’s not just about Trump and Elon. It’s about Trump’s people. Because the reality is it’s Trump’s people like Bannon that are going to be the igniters of the next flame. Right. So if did you see Bannon yesterday saying that that we need to deport Elon and investigate him? Like first of all, deporting Elon, the richest guy in the world. He’s the kind of person you want to encourage to come to this country. There’s plenty of people we could deport. I don’t think it should be Elon and send him to another country where he takes all of his technology and just becomes a national of some other country that’s competing against the US. Come on. It I’ll tell you the one person here that you can say without a doubt who’s really lost his mind and needs to shut the hell up is Bannon. Okay, end of story. Okay, I don’t care what side you’re on. Get rid of that guy.

Um, but all right, all things aside, we are in a fast-trading environment from this point forward. If you’re an investor and you are not getting alerts and watching X every second of the day for anything that Elon says, the one thing that I’ve noticed over the past couple of years, and this is really astonishing. You would think with all the algorithms and all the quants and all the fast-trading shops on Wall Street, because I’ve been in the fast-trading shop.

Jordan: Have you ever been

Chris: Let me tell you what it’s like. A fast-trading shop on Wall Street is just an entire floor of a crappy building in New York, and you basically have hundreds and hundreds of traders either in tiny little cubicles or working with each other, and all these guys are doing and it is guys it’s like I think it’s like 100%. Guys, it’s exa they look exactly like you think they would look. Okay, these are not like Wharton NBA guys. All they’re doing is scraping news and getting alerts and fast trading, and they all have but they all have uh, allocations essentially that they can trade, and they make a piece of the profit. First of all, how is that even a job anymore? Hasn’t that just completely been eliminated with computer quant?

Jordan: Nope.

Chris: It it’s still a big deal. Um, but what’s amazing, Dave, what I would not be doing is going to college to try to get that job in the future, though.

Jordan: Well, no, probably not.

Chris: But what is amazing is that individual retail traders like us, I have still had a massive amount of success by preparing my mind of what I want to do in advance, waiting for the tweet, and then within seconds of that tweet or or ex post making the trade, I know exactly what option I’m going to buy if Elon says something that is, you know, particularly concerning that could lead to to investor concern about his relationship and Tesla’s relationship with the government. And and I also have another option that I’m prepared and ready to go on if Trump or anyone the administration says something or if there’s a rumor like I follow various alert sites, right, that are posting on rumors. There is still so much opportunity to trade that stuff in real time. Um, but you have to be following this news cycle, and we’re in it now, guys. Whether you love it or hate it, we are deep in a fast-trading environment probably for the next few days, next few weeks. Hell, it might even be for the next few months on this subject matter. So, let’s talk about the trade. Let’s disclose what you did yesterday because I know that you had puts on Tesla before any of this started exploding. Did you also fast trade in addition to the puts you already had in place?

Dave: So, I’ll tell you what I did. Um, and by the way, I mean, my Tesla puts are inconsequential. Uh, I I have had as you know, guys, I have had the largest uh, position of Invidia calls and more recently Robin Hood calls I’ve had in a long time. I’ve basically been trading up every week, rolling up that position, meaning that I’m making massive profits in those call options. I’m selling them, and then I’m taking part of my profits to purchase new call options at a higher strike price. I’ve been doing that like every week. It’s honestly insane. Uh, I did it again last week, and I did it again uh, yesterday when there was a drop in Nvidia. Uh, I went ahead and bought even more. So I loaded up. I have I have an unreasonable number of Nvidia calls right now that expire Yeah. in a few hours. And I purchased even more this morning that expire next week. And I don’t even care if the market falls apart in the next few hours. I’ll just use that drop to go even deeper on Nvidia calls that expire next week because I’m spending now about an hour to an hour and a half every night. I know you guys get a few texts from me late night, probably at 2:00 in the morning. I I’ll share only one or two. I try not to wake you up.

Jordan: You can text all you want. My phone My phone mutes all uh, all incoming noise at about 10:00 p.m.

Chris: Well, mine’s 9:00 p.m. So, I’m done at 9:00 p.m., but I’ve been doing the same thing as you, Chris. Every time I see, you know, a little bit of red on Nvidia, I just buy some calls. It’s the It’s the easiest thing to make right now.

Jordan: So, Jordan, you know what I love about this whole Elon Trump feud trade is that it brings down everything things that have

Chris: Yeah. I mean, Tesla dropped a lot yesterday, but everything started dropping, so I just bought some calls. I love it. I love it. I love it. It was a big overcorrection yesterday. So, if you were if you timed that right and you had puts right as the president started speaking about Elon and then you switched to calls at the end of the day, you would have you would have made 7,000% on your money.

Dave: Guys, I think I reached the end of the internet as it relates to people’s opinions on Nvidia, Insight, Alpha, uh, analyst research, uh, uh, rumors coming out of China. I don’t think there’s been one thing written on any platform related to Nvidia, the company, any of its supply. And my conviction level is about as high as it gets right now. Okay. On Nvidia, and I’m not going to stop and and I’m almost hoping for a drop. So, let me let me lose money so I can go in even deeper. And that I know I shouldn’t be talking about Nvidia when we’re talking about an Elon Trump feud. But I see that feud as bringing me more opportunity because there was no reason that Nvidia should have dropped when it did yesterday. And I took that drop to double down on my favorite stock right now.

Um, yeah, finding opportunities like that is gold in this environment when the market just kind of slowly eases up every day, and if you get a little drop for something that you like um, because of something totally unrelated, it’s just an opportunity in my

Jordan: Yeah. Do you know why it’s noise? It’s because everyone’s consumed by noise. And I love it when everyone else is consumed by noise and I’m zoned in. I am locked in. Okay, locked in to my research. Um, I’m going to say something right now. Every single major country in the world is about to develop a pro. Okay. Did Did I get chopped up when I got

Chris: They’re about to develop a Every

Jordan: Okay. Well, let me say it again. Every country in the world is about to develop a proprietary AI infrastructure, okay, for the next 50 years. And guess who’s powering every single one of those? Nvidia.

Chris: Nobody’s one company behind it all.

Jordan: Sovereign. There’s no better There’s no better play than Nvidia. I think over the next 10 years, sovereign AI is bigger than anybody can possibly imagine. And these news, this news is going to start to break. I think in the next few weeks as more and more countries start to announce their sovereign AI projects, there is only one company in the world that has the capacity to power that. It’s like the Intel inside. We’re about to see the Nvidia inside of every country’s AI platform.

Dave: Okay, bring it back to today’s episode. I think I think we need to talk about the whole idea about how Donald Trump feels about someone kind of needs to be priced into these stocks. Whether it’s Elon or Tim Cook and and his iPhone tariff or Jensen with Nvidia or Zuckerberg and Meta, like everything the president says has the potential to not only impact the one stock and the one guy that he’s mad at for whatever reason, but the whole market. But also, Dave, remember how Trump is. Remember what Vance said about Trump a long time ago? Didn’t he say like the worst he he was talking about like it was the worst insult. He called him Hitler, right? Didn’t he call Didn’t he call Trump like the American Hitler years ago?

Jordan: Yeah.

Dave: And he’s now the vice president under Trump. Okay. So remember this about Trump. Trump, you can say anything about Trump and you have the ability to work your way back in. All right? And so

And so is if he chooses.

If you, if you were to take the two egoomaniacs of Trump and Elon, I feel like Elon has deep convictions about what he thinks and isn't going to change his mind. Trump, I don't think, has any real anything he's really passionate about other than money and fame and success for himself personally.

You just nailed it right there. You nailed it. There will always be a window open for this relationship. I mean, you could commit any crime you want. Give Donald Trump a million dollars and he's going to pardon you. It's like an instant get out of jail free card for a million dollars.

Well, you know what I thought was interesting were the comments that Elon made late last night and I guess this morning, or or the re or the retweets showing that Elon wanted to deescalate. So, it looks like they're going to take a breather, but I think it is really important that over the short term, it's un I I would say it's unlikely, but possible, but unlikely that Elon would escalate further because Elon is also really emotional, and I think he's realizing that it's not in his interest right now after everything he's been through to push harder. So, I guess he's going to not cancel uh, you know, his his spaceership with the government yet, right? He he walked back from that.

They're both very reactionary and they were letting this play out just they they were they're fast tweeting this faster than anybody could even fast trade it. And I feel like they didn't have there was not enough time for their advisors to come in and say, "Hey, hey, cool it. You're you're you're blowing things up. You don't need to do this."

Advisors, you think? I don't think any of them listen to their advisors anyway. But there's no advisors.

By the way, yesterday was a moment, guys. It was I I told my kids, I said, "What happened today might go down as one of the most extraordinary events in the in American political history." And I know you guys could care less. They're like summertime. They're doing their stuff. They, you know, kid, they don't care. But I was like, you're gonna you're going to read about this someday. This is this is just w by the way. How how wild was that to live through yesterday? I was stunned. I It takes a lot to to really stun you. It's one of those things. I I was I was yelling throughout the house, "We're witnessing history. You're not watching this."

Well, I'll tell you this. I also went last night with my wife and daughter and saw uh Mission Impossible at the IMAX, which I was so excited for multiple reasons because my daughter like will only see one movie a year uh in a movie theater with us. My son wouldn't even go. But that movie, as amazing as it was, and by the way, like you need, if you're watching right now, drop everything and get yourself an IMAX ticket to see that movie while it's still on the IMAX because I'm telling you, do you realize the first Mission Impossible, Dave, was 1996? It that watching that movie, right? And the way they wrapped it up was very similar to the Top Gun uh you know the latest Top Gun movie where it felt nostalgic and it was so cool, but it also was really unnerving to watch that movie the same day that we had this destabilizing thing happen in our government. I actually started to get so much anxiety halfway through that movie because I couldn't stop thinking about the fact that there are no stable grown-ups anymore uh in the government and I'm watching this movie going like I I am actually meaningfully worried uh about the next 20 years with AI with politics with like the destabilization of the world right now and with the spending, with the money printing, with, you know, everything everything is just kind of like teetering on the edge right now.

Which is why like when we we saw this escalating and then everybody started guessing like how far could this go? Is there going to be a a a Tesla tariff? Is is is it going to be a big push? Elon tweeted yes to let's impeach Trump and put JD in place? Uh Elon had his uh new political ex party. I mean, the the taco trade, is Trump going to chicken out on this one? Like, there's so many things that were that were being discussed yesterday.

Well, so many it I really don't it's really hard to make me anxious probably because I've been trading derivatives since I was 13 years old. Um, with the, you know, half of my net worth at at on each trade, right? But last night watching that movie, I was checking my phone every half an hour. I was actually starting to get nervous for like our entire civilization between the movie and what was actually happening in real life, which is almost as insane as what I was watching in the movie. Right.

Um, so right now we seem to have a little bit of a deescalation on both sides, but you know, that isn't going to last for forever. What What do you think the most likely next thing is? I think I think the Here's the deal. Like hopefully hopefully Elon with everything he's been through the last few months is able to just swallow his pride here. I mean, I think that's what it's going to take because someone has to swallow their pride and it's not going to be Trump. Okay, let's be honest. It's not going to be Trump. Uh, okay. So, Elon, I hope he swallows his pride and and and and and does a little bit of damage control uh for himself here. And I think if he does just a little damage control, that will go a long way to allowing Trump to say, "Well, Elon apologized, so now I can be friends with him again. I'm we're not gonna, you know, we're not going to be hanging out on Air Force One as much, but you know, I'm not going to I'm not going to, you know, ban robo taxis."

Correct, Dave. And and so many other CEOs have figured this out. They figured out how to play the Trump game. And I really hope that Elon kind of figures it out really quick. Trump just needs to be the kingmaker and Elon has to provide that to him and all will be okay.

I don't know if Elon can do that more than short term is the problem because ultimately Elon in his head feels that he needs to make a difference and needs to make a difference not just with his companies but in you know the world, humanity and and I think he realizes that that the midterms are coming, right? We're going to get into midterm politics here, right? By the after this summer, it's probably going to start to heat up. And can Elon stay out of it? Can he stay out of it? I don't see any way that Elon stays out of it. That's what you have to worry about. I just I really think that Elon's just concerned about America and the way that he's gone about it is odd. Um, but I think it's pretty apparent that when he blew up was all about this big beautiful bill and the deficit spending that it's going to throw the country into for the next however long. And I think it really upset him.

Yeah, I think so too. I think he really 100% about that because it makes perfect sense. He he did doge um because he thought he could make a difference. He couldn't. Um and then he saw it as a slap in the face that you know they're just going to go out and spend and spend and spend. Um even though he was not able to save the country any money and balance that out with Trump on the other side saying well I've packed all the MAGA movement into a single bill and this needs to pass or else it's a failure for the movement. So let's let's play out like the trading scenarios for if the bill passes, if the bill fails or if the bill gets rewritten, right? Because I think that we you have to be prepared for any scenario. And I think you know if it passes obviously more debt, more money printing, more inflation, buy Bitcoin, buy stocks, let the next generation deal with it. But what what are you what are you thinking?

Well, I mean, if the bill passes, it's got to be net stimulative for the economy, right? So like you're still pumping money into the economy. So, um, uh, generally what happens when you're at full employment is you want to run, you know, budget surpluses, but if you're just running hot, basically, so rates stay high and money keeps flowing into stocks because the economy keeps pumping, right?

Yeah. It's not an if Dave if it passes when it passes or what version of it passes because Trump has said if it fails there's going to be a 68% tax increase which also is just like a made up he loves making up numbers.

He does. He really does. He loves it. Um if like if this bill if the big beautiful bill fails, you know that there's going to be something that passes that's maybe a smaller less beautiful bill, but there's still going to be tax cuts. There's still going to be more spending. They're not going to they're not going to just say, "Oh, yeah, just kidding. We don't we don't want the big beautiful bill anymore."

And how ridiculous is it that we have to keep calling it the big beautiful bill? Do you do you know that's what it's actually called? It's like the headline that's why I wouldn't be saying that if it weren't like actually written into the bill. Those are the things that kind of make me nervous is that like that's where we are right now, right? like that's where we are. You've read like you've read the executive orders, right? They're it's it's like they're written by like a high schooler. Um it's like a high schooler took the concept and sent it through chat GBT saying, "Hey, make this sound legally binding, right?"

Yeah. I again I think I know this might seem counterintuitive but while the rest of the world is so focused on trading this feud I have the opposite thinking. I love it that everybody's so focused on that and not focused on other stuff. So I have less competition now. I have more time to basically trade other stuff that people aren't paying attention to. I will say this, I will continue for fun to fast trade Tesla um on news that hits if I catch it quick enough.

So from this point forward, I am going Dave said something about you because you told me that you were that you had puts on Tesla um you know while it was dropping, but did you buy those before any of this started or was it because of this?

No. Uh Jordan, I actually am so upset. On Wednesday, I went to make a fairly large purchase of Tesla puts in anticipation and I thought, is it because of the rhetoric that uh Yeah, I I I saw what Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I was just curious. But but but they were No, I didn't buy them. They were too expensive. I thought the premiums were too high and I chickenened out and Oh, I was so upset. But I did end up buying them yesterday and it did really well.

Yeah. Uh the problem, but that's what I was asking. Did you buy them when the feud started or No, I I bought them like as it was, you know, as it was moving, but before the big hit, before the big hit happened. And but I kept them. I kept them today. And the reason why I kept them was was strategic and it only makes it made sense for me as part of my portfolio because you have to understand something. I have such a large amount of calls in Robin Hood and Nvidia. And I was balancing that with puts in Tesla because if today was an additional escalation of this feud that just shook the market, the puts on Tesla uh would help kind of even out the losses on all the calls on Nvidia and Hood. And I went into a massive Hood call position last week. And this is one of my favorite trades, guys. My trade was not that Robin Hood would get added to the S&P tonight after hours. I love this trade so much. my trade was that the market would anticipate the the strong possibility of them getting added to the S&P so that I would own these calls in Robin Hood all of this week, exit those calls in the last, I don't know, 15 minutes of today's market, and then yeah, I would take the gains to play the S&P trade into next week, but I would already crush it this week. And that's exactly what happened on my Robin Hood calls.

So, my Nvidia calls are not about like this week or anything. I actually think next week uh might be a really exciting week for Nvidia. Now, what's really interesting on Nvidia is this and I knew this would happen. There's there's a lot of insider selling this week and it's all normal. It's nothing crazy, right? Like we had the second largest owner of Nvidia sell $150 million of stock. We had Jensen selling a ton of stock. These are just routine sales. These guys own so much stock. They're always going to be selling to diversify. You know, I think some of these shares are in trust that have to be balanced. So that I knew there would be a lot of selling pressure going into this week. In fact, market makers knew this. I think late last week, they were even preparing for these big sales early this week. And I love it. I love that downward pressure on Nvidia because I knew that it was temporary and I knew it would hold the stock down this week. Uh but that selling pressure I believe will relieve itself here shortly. Uh it could have been yesterday, it could have been today, it might be early next week. But I if you look at the actual narrative, the actual data and everything that's happening with Nvidia right now, the the the the narrative of the sovereign AI story is just scratching the surface. It's just about to take off. Okay, Jensen is in Europe next week. He's in Paris at Tech Week. He is going to be talking about the sovereign AI buildout in European countries, I believe, and and news outlets and Wall Street and investors are going to start talking about this. I sent you guys uh a tweet talking about the 10 about the amount of compute that the Nvidia CEO was quoted I think at the BFA conference this week uh that that people are not paying enough attention to. Why are they not paying attention to it? They're not paying attention to it because the president of the United States and the one of the wealthiest, most powerful businessmen in the world are having a feud on X, but the CFO of Nvidia is telling us what they're seeing in terms of compute demand. And it looks like a trillion dollars of Nvidia buildout. UBS came out and said, "Hey, this late, this person, what they just said they're seeing at Nvidia, we believe equates to about a trillion dollars in Nvidia revenue based on the thing that that that that this person just said at Nvidia. Okay. um Beth and and no one's talking about it because they're talking about Trump and Elon. Okay, this is what I've been saying for years. My biggest friend in the market is noise. Nothing. I love nothing more than noise because you know what? I don't get distracted by noise. But everyone else does. We got a whole lot of noise yesterday.

Yeah. So anyway, I oddly Nvidia is my trade on on on that is your Trump trade on the Elon Trump feud. It's Nvidia actually. You know what? Now what happens when Elon get or when Trump gets mad at Jensen?

Oh, that would be bad because we've already seen like he canceled the Chinese chips. They're not in each other's business every day. Okay, let me tell you the difference, Dave. Let me tell you the difference. Jensen knows what he's doing when it comes to managing his relationship with Trump. Jensen might be better than any CEO. That guy is a wizard when it comes to politics. Jensen is is managing relationships with every president and leader in the world. He's in South Korea. He's in Taiwan. He's in China working the chi working Chinese leadership. He's in Europe next week. He's this guy. I'm telling you, Jensen and the other he's he's intensely focused on Nvidia. He's not focused on trying to do some goal in the US. No, he's focused on Nvidia.

Jordan, if there's one if there's one CEO that I can sleep well at night knowing that I am unreasonably overinvested in his company, it's Jensen. Right? If there's one CEO that I know is unlikely, except for that one picture where he had his like hand on the lady's boob that keeps coming out, that was to sign it, right? Wasn't he just trying to sign it? He was signing Oh, yeah. he was signing a that that was the only little hiccup Jensen had ever has ever made.

Um, but by the way, you know, there's so many investors that are looking at all these second order trades, the second order AI trades, right? And there's there's a lot of them. Screw all of them. I'm in some of them, by the way. I'm in some of them. I have the stock. Whatever. Screw all of them. I don't need to go second order here. I'm going first order, okay? Cuz I am telling you, I vividly see Nvidia as a 10 trillion dollar company. I just I see it. It's right in front of my face. Y and if I could just time the leaps, if I could just time those moments when it's going to take the step up, because if you look at that Nvidia chart, it's been flat for so long, right? And there's a good reason why it has been. It hasn't been flat because of technicals. Everyone's like it's been flat because if you look at the news, if you look at the narrative over the past seven, eight months, there was always been something to keep Nvidia down. Some doubt. Do do you remember that the the Chinese that you know the Chinese AI there's something that was going to take Nvidia down and then we realize well that's not really true. But then there's something else. And then there's the ban on China. And then there like there's always something at some point there's not going to be the next big thing that's going to hold this company down. Uh and it's going to fly. It's going to fly. Okay? Because again, we talked about this episode after episode going back two and a half years since the the first week release of Chat GPT. This is a new world order.

Hold on. Johnson just said that Michael Barry shorted Nvidia with half of his portfolio. Is that even But that was old. That is old. That that again, I love it. These are investors that are are not understanding that these reports come out and it's based on data that's like 60 days ago or 90 days ago because that's when they have to get released. He could have been out. First of all, let me just I don't keep track of what Michael Barry does. Um, there are people that do. I don't I I if if you were trading Michael Barry's ideas the last three years, good for I mean that that would not look pretty.

Okay. So, by the way, we're not financial advisors. We're not saying to trade our ideas, but use us like use us for inspiration and do your own homework and assess your own risk. Uh my risk is way higher than yours. Reason to never mirror our our trades, but like just do your own homework, guys. But guys, I'm telling you this, don't let the noise like block you from this. It's too big.

Oh, I want to say one thing that you guys don't know yet. Um, I made a 7 figure trade last night. Last night in the wee hours of the morning, I transferred seven figures into Hong Kong dollars and invested in a company that is not a tech company that is on the Hong Kong exchange. That will be revealed in our next episode if you guys are okay with that. So that that's Oh yeah, that's crazy. This could be one of the nuttiest investments I've ever made. It's a It's a pure social ARB investment. It is an old school social ARB trade, but it's seven tech company.

What? You said it's not a tech company. It's not a tech company. Wait, hold on. I was miles away. What happened? What is in Hong Kong talking about? I tr through my Schwab Global account, I transferred seven figures into Hong Kong dollars and I traded an obscure uh non-tech company that trades on the Hong Kong exchange and and it will be revealed on our next episode. Is it one uh that they were talking about a viral moment on the Today show a couple days ago? I have no idea. Hong Kong company. I have no idea. And I and I will not I will not deny or confirm any guest that you have on this episode because I I want to share it with our community first.

I'll pro I'll pro I'll probably end up putting it in our Discord for the for the guys in our Discord.

Now, are you talking seven figures of US dollars or seven figures of Hongong? US dollars. It ended up being like five, seven million Hong Kong dollars. I don't I don't know. It's Anyway, I just closed my eyes and did it. Now, we'll talk about it next week. I'll tell you guys once we wrap the episode here today because it's a fun one.

How big of a fee is that conversion? Is it like a fixed fee or is it a percentage? So, the I think the biggest hit, Jordan, is when I transfer the currency, right? The currency hit on Schwab Global is the it's I don't know. I don't even I closed my rate is like not competitive. There are better ways to do that than they they get you. They get you because they know they have you. And like Schwab Global is not for like active trader. Like I'm sure if you're on Interactive Brokers, you can get a much better. So if you were doing it like over and over again, you'd want to go with I broker, but for a one time maybe it's fine. I only trade these international stocks maybe twice a year.

Yeah, usually. Um, but once you get your currency, you because you have to trade in the local currency and once you do that, uh, it's not expensive at all to buy the stock. It's like almost the same as here in the US. It's like nothing. Uh, what's most people don't understand that if it and Schwab is the only way to do this, I think. Uh, I think there's like Interactive Brokers, but it's just so confusing for me. If you have a Schwab account, you could then open up a Schwab global account and you could associate those accounts and you could trade almost any country in the world that has a stock exchange. So, you could trade foreign securities through Schwab. It's actually really It's actually really cool. And I started doing it years ago. It's not that difficult. It's all online. I mean just you do the little currency trade then you do the little you know then you buy the you look up the ticker they have a ticker lookup you could type in the company on the far now there's certain countries where we can't do it like South Korea I don't they won't allow Americans to trade in China you can't trade in China but you can do Hong Kong you can't trade South Korea what you can't trade South Korea uh no so US citizens cannot trade in South Korea you have to go to South Korea. I think it's South Yeah, you have to go to South Korea and you have to get like a uh a license some type of registration with the government to be able to It's really complic I did not know that. That sounds unnecessary.

Yeah, I won't be doing that and I probably won't be doing the trade. So, I don't know how interesting of an episode this is because it's sounds so complicated.

Oh, it's interesting. It will be Dave, I will let you title the episode so that it doesn't seem obscure so people will actually watch it and We're going to call it my insane million-dollar trade. Oh man. Oh man.

Okay, so let's talk Can we talk about Robin Hood for a second here? Tonight they're going to uh What do you What do you think? I already disclosed all the stuff I haven't Yeah. What do you think is going to happen? Do you think they're going to be added or not? I think they're going to be added. You do? But they might not be. Who knows? I kind of think that they're not going to be. They'll probably do get it the next time cuz this is I think only the second time they've qualified and it just seems like S&P loves to drag their heels on things. It is. It It's like being in the Hall of Fame where they purposely don't put you in the first few times.

Is that what you're saying? Probably because Robin Hood is one of these highly talked about stocks. It actually helps their news cycle. more people are talking about S&P inclusion now and they'll get to talk about it again the next time because you know there's no reason we'd ever talk about the Hall of Fame unless someone was you know someone interesting was being denied. Um the only other name that I've heard thrown out is Bea Systems, but I've never even heard of them before. But it's a similar market cap. I wouldn't be talking about the S&P if if that were all that were being in consideration. Remember when Tesla finally got added? That was a big deal.

Yeah. Well, the thing is they're saying that if Robin Hood gets added, it's actually like a lot of Robin Hood stock that will need to be purchased. So, it's kind of a big deal. Um, I am going to per listen Listen, I'm going to just guess that it's a little higher than 50/50 that Robin Hood gets added. So, for me, it's worthwhile even beyond the options I have now that expired today to buy even more options in Robin Hood for next week. Like I have to I Robin Hood's my stock, man. They can't not play that. I mean, I already have an insane amount of Robin Hood stock, but I have to also be levered in options. I have to be levered up. I just have to. And if it doesn't hit and I lose that, by the way, I played it last time and lost all my money. I if it doesn't happen, I am investing an appropriate amount in options and in my head I am totally fine with getting zeroed out on that, which I will if it doesn't hit.

Now, is there is there one of those triple leveraged uh Robin Hood funds the way Tesla and some of the others have? I I don't know. But Dave, I would rather I already have my Robin Hood that's going to be there for years and years, like my equity, but I would rather just invest in options and know that, hey, if it hits, I'm going to make this much. If it doesn't hit, I'm losing it all. And when the options that I bought for next week, I think if it hits, I'm going to make meaningfully more than 2x. So, if I think there's a 50/50 chance of them getting included, it's like a pretty good investment because like 50/50 I make three or four times my money. 50/50 I lose all my money. I'll take that bet all day long. So, I I think I like the odds uh of playing it into next. By the way, we're not financial ad. Do not like guys this is this is I always say investing is not g this is about as close as being speculative gambling as it gets in our world playing an S&P inclusion and I see there is a leverage Robin Hood it's R ON according to Pedro yeah but I don't want the thing about that is that you leverage your losses too right so in with the options trade Chris knows its downside I know my downside and I'm willing to take a 100% hit on the downside on that option happy to take Okay.

But my way way way way bigger trade here is Nvidia, guys. Uh I'm telling you, I I think I hit the end of the internet with Nvidia research and I can't find anything negative. I actually cannot find negative. In fact, do you remember when we were all talking about how inference was going to take over and that and the ASIC platform of chips? The chips that Amazon makes and Google makes and and and like Grock, not Grock, Elon's Grock, but GRQ Shimoff's Grock. And we were worried that that was going to be the play, not not you know the Nvidia style chips. Well, now if you look at the research and what people are saying at all the hyperscalers and all of the AI uh you know engineers that are building out, they're all saying that going in going five, six, seven years down that that that the ASIC chips are probably going to be capped at 50% of chip demand. Okay, that about 50% even as we move entirely to inference down the road. That 50% is still going to be GPUs because of the type of inference. There's a type of inference that still needs the with a GPU even in at today's standards is much more efficient, right? Uh than the ASIC uh chip type platform. So Nvidia is so durable here. It's so durable and but beyond all of that, as we know, it's not even about chips anymore. They're the they're literally the infrastructure company, the software, the everything behind all of the AI buildout. Now, I'd never seen anything like this. Jordan, have you ever, as an engineer, I know you've been probably following this story over the past few months about how Nvidia is evolving. Have you ever seen a company with this type of chokehold? Uh, and by the way, we're not even talking about the fact that when it comes down to allocation, right, out of Taiwan semi, who who gets all the allocation going 10 years out, it's in like they have a chokeold on the allocation of the fab the fab itself. But have you ever seen anything like this where we're going to see this much of an expansion of an infrastructure project and no I mean so originally the the original comparison with Cisco but I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. It's not because what Cisco did was replicable, right?

Um, yeah. And got commoditized to where it's not really looking the same for Nvidia right now.

No, it's not. And you know what? Cisco was one of the 12 stories that over the past eight months it was it kept Nvidia down for a little bit and then there was another Everybody Everybody made the Cisco comparison. Yeah. But but this is why guys, it's so important. If you don't have a counternarrative, if you don't have a short story, then there's no reason to be long because the only reason why you're long is because there's another side to the story that you disagree with that once that information gets disseminated that you're right and they're wrong, you right, the stock reacts in your favor. So, you actually want to invest when there's another side to the story that people are paying attention to that you believe is wrong. Um, because if everybody thought Nvidia was the play, if there were no doubters, if there was no short narrative, that's a problem. Okay? Because what are you trading against? What is it that you know? What is it that your research has led you to believe that others haven't figured out yet? Um, so like I think investors sometimes get scared when there's a counter story, a short side narrative, but that's what you want. You want to find out what that is and then you want to come to terms with the fact that it's wrong. like that. That's if if you can't do that, there's no trade. There's no trade. Um, my research has led me to believe that every short narrative on Nvidia right now is wrong. Maybe I'm wrong. You could be. I'm not betting against Nvidia, though. Not right now. No. No.

Um, okay. So, should we take a quick look at the Have there been any good comments we should get to here, guys? It's a Friday show. We should touch on comments. We've had a lot of comments, but we're talking about being mentioned that we need to address.

Wait, two things. AMD AI day. So, AMD is interesting. Um, oh, Jordan, AMD is interesting. But before we get to AMD, one last thing on Nvidia. This Chinese chip that has been rumored to be approved, backdoor approved already, okay, by the administration. Yeah. reports that there could be. Did you see how much volume of that chip potentially China has contracted for between now and the end of the year? It looks like upwards of 8 to 10 billion dollar have been contracted and is going into mass production to be delivered in 2025. So that could be as much as 8 to 10 billion dollar of revenue that is not on the books right now because Nvidia has canled all that Chinese revenue that they might bring back into revenue projections this year. Supposedly this chip's going into production. Also last night last night I saw a rumor that the Hawaii I'm going to say this name wrong. What's the Chinese chipmaker that everyone's afraid of? Hawaii Huawei Highway Huawei Yeah, that their anti- NINVIDIA chip is delayed to I frozen. Why am I frozen at the most important times? So anyway, Dave needs to make you like a little sheet that says what you need to do as your boot up process before the show. And part of that I know what I need to do and turn it back on again. I know. I need to turn my computer off and on. But did you ever upgrade from an Intelbased uh Mac Mini? Did you get an M series? That's your problem. That's the one that you had me get. It's 2025. Like I don't We had you get that in like 2020. Was it been the five years already? Yes. I have told you a million times to get an M series Mac Mini. It will solve all the problems.

Wait, I thought I bought that when you told me to buy it. I I I don't know. Did you Are you using an M series or are you using the Intel? Just click on the Apple and say about this Mac and you should be able to see quickly. It'll say the year you bought it right on the screen. Okay. I mean about it should tell you the architecture, too. Okay. I'm using an M1 8 gig. Oh, M1. That's That's newer than I thought. Back on again. Yeah. The the problem is that I didn't reboot it before the episode and I will not do that. Just turn it off and let you you don't use it like all the time. I know. Here's the thing. The Chinese anti-invidia chip by Hawaii supposedly is delayed. They are not going to start mass manufacturing that to the end of this year. So, and I also heard another rumor that the Chinese hyperscalers are not wanting to switch over. They want to stay with Nvidia. They're having they're not switching over. Okay. So, like the biggest concern for Nvidia right now might not even be a concern.

Um, but Jordan, I agree that there's so much demand right now with this AI buildout that AMD just by being around, well, just being around, but there's um, and I forgot the name of the open source project, um, I'm sure some people in the chat will know u, but there's an open source project that basically lets you run um, LLMs on top of like an AMD architecture. Now, I don't know if any um I doubt any hyperscalers are doing any of this, but uh I know for sure that you know some homegrown projects use this. So, um it's being used and people are buying the chips um because they can't get a hold of Nvidia chips.

Um also guys, one other trade, we've talked about this before, is my one of my favorite Trump tariff trades, Boeing. Uh I recently read, you know, obviously this Chinese negotiation is going to happen. Uh I think we can all agree that it's almost a guarantee almost a guarantee that they're going to come to a solution. Everybody's going to win. Okay. Uh we desperately need we desperately need the critical elements from China. In fact, like the whole world needs them. China really does hold those cards and Trump I think at this point understands that. Um but you know what China wants? It's really interesting. They want Boeing planes. I mean they want them. They want Boeing planes. Guess what? We're happy to sell them. Do you know what Trump wants to sell more than anything in the world? Let me just tell you something. Trump is like a used car salesman when it comes to Boeing planes. He will sell you a Boeing plane whether you want it or not. If you're already wanting a Boeing plane, I can't even imagine how many Boeing planes Trump is going to sell China, okay, as part of this negotiation. So, I think I'm going to add to my Boeing position because that I feel that that news release is it's a as close to a guarantee as it gets. Now, we could debate the degree to which Trump is going to, you know, open up chips and stuff to China, uh, more than he already has supposedly with this backdoor kind of approval of the new Nvidia chip that's down, you know, that's downgraded. But, you know, he's going to sell him the Boeing planes, right? 100%. He loves selling planes. Loves it. He also loves except if you happen to be a country with an extra luxury plane laying around, he's he's happy to take that off your hands, too.

Do you think Trump is getting a spiff on every Boeing plane he's like like a cash and fist bonus by Boeing for everyone that he gets? You remember like when I used to sell cars? Yeah. We used to get this thing called cash and fist. Saturday mornings, they would get all the car salesmen out and they they'd take out a watt of cash and in addition to your commissions that day for every one of the seven series that you sold or whatever we're trying to push that day, you would get like 1,500 cash and fist and they would literally roll out the GM would literally give you hundreds. So, would that qualify today for a no tax on tips?

Um, oh, I think so. to get it as a tip. Either that or they they you know Boeing's just buying Trumpcoin. That seems like the good backdoor way to get money into the administration.

Are you are you doing anything? We have uh we have WWDC on Monday. Are you doing anything to celebrate?

Um I feel that's more of a you thing, Dave, and you get way more hype than I do for that.

What I'm gonna say something. Yeah. I think Tim Cook Apple is boring with products. You think what? He's a logistics guy. He's he's the product. There's no exciting products coming out of Apple. Like I just don't think

Well, Jordan, Apple is working on the humanoid. It's their number one project. From what I heard, it's their number one secret project. They have a humanoid. The humanoid is cooking. I've heard them I've heard rumors that they've been telling recruits. I'm just saying my phone's been the same for like a decade now. Like it's

Oh, you're going to get you're going to get a brand new operating system. iOS 26. That's what they're calling it. Not 19. Can't wait for that. Can't wait for It's going to be more glasslike. When you move it, it's going to react to the the light in the room. Dave will be the last guy on Earth in 2040 that's still getting excited by every Apple announcement.

Well, Tim Cook is a great CEO. I've got nothing against him, but he's not obviously, you know, I mean, just obviously. Although, I mean, he I feel like they've fallen behind on coming out with the big new innovative thing quickly. They But they've never been the first to market. They were never they didn't have the first smartphone. They just had the first iPhone. They made the And like Vision Pro is an amazing product. It's just too expensive. They they're they were ahead of the curve there. They didn't that that they didn't follow the Apple playbook of waiting until the there was adoption and people were using headsets anyway to come out with a headset that was so much better. And they're not going to be the first robot. They're not going to be the first humanoid. The other thing is that they have no ability to keep a secret anymore because it's like Mac Rumors knows literally everything that's going to happen. I don't know. I think I think everybody gives their leaks to Mark German at Bloomberg and then every other article is citing Mark's reporting on everything. Yeah. Like all the YouTubers, it's like, oh, well, Mark once again revealed that this is what this is what's coming out. I I got to give them credit. I can tell you every single thing that's going to be on this new operating system, though, and I already know what the iPhone looks like. There's there's not as much excitement when everything gets

Are you pumped about it, Dave? Are you pumped?

No. No. This it's not I don't think it's going to be a game-changing WWDC. I was more excited about last year's and then they actually delivered on what they were promising.

Let's rewind that. They delivered a promise of something that was going to be amazing and then they've delayed it indefinitely. Yeah, that that smarty and we're not we're not expecting to see any new feature announcements for Siri this year either. And and that's quite honestly insane. Um the pro the problem that Apple has guys is the same issue that Google has. People don't really fully understand when we talk about Google and all the risk of why they were slow to release AI because they were super concerned about taking business away from Google search and they've admitted that uh Apple has the same problem. Apple gets tens and tens of billions of dollars a year from Google because of the amount of search revenue that Apple sends

Through Google. So, it's equally risky for Apple to go all-in on AI and potentially risk that revenue. So, if people don't discuss that or do anything. Look, I mean, we should have an opinion on this and it's correct, but I think it's wrong also, Chris, because look, here's the deal.

LLMs don't make any money. Like, they—like, I mean, you can get some revenue, but they're not profitable. There's no path to profitability.

Absolutely untrue, Jordan. You're wrong.

You're wrong.

I'm not wrong.

How much money does OpenAI lose? We don't even know.

We don't even know.

Okay.

Okay, Jordan. But we know that they're not profitable because of how Sam talks about the business. Like he says that like we're wasting money because people take and all this stuff.

Jordan, they're just getting started—obviously not a problem. OpenAI right now—right now—is doing between 10 and 20 billion dollars a year, right? In—in—in—in spending way more than that.

No, they're getting revenue.

No, I'm not saying that they don't make money. I'm saying they don't make money. Like they don't have profit.

Well, hold on. Hold on. But do startups ever have a profit?

Hold on, Jordan. Okay, we're literally building out the largest infrastructure the world has ever done. Google is doing the same thing, right? And so that's my point is that Google isn't putting this as like the front-facing product in their company only because they're still making money doing search.

Hold on. But Jordan, you cannot tell me that there is not a very clear sightline to profitability with LLMs. It is crystal clear. The revenue is outrageous, and we're just getting—it's a lot of revenue, right? But no, people are paying monthly fees, but the monthly fees don't cover the compute that they're using. And so my question about all of this has always been, what is the true cost to actually make a query, right? To actually make—like if you have your AI bot or your AI agent or whatever and you tell it to like go do some research, then it comes back in like 105 minutes, how much money did that actually cost? What is the true—what's the true cost to use these things? And we don't know that yet.

No, Jordan, the compute is meaningfully more expensive today than it will ever be. Crazy more expensive today than it will ever be. The one thing that we know for a fact is that energy costs aren't going down, Chris. So, energy costs are going to continue to go up. Now, you could say that GPU efficiency can continue. That's probably true.

Well, I think energy cost—energy will continue to go up, too. As we—as we invest and create more energy, the price of energy per kilowatt hour is—and you're going to have to amortize all these crazy facilities that are being built.

Oh. Okay. Okay. Yes. But—but the—listen, the compute is—has been—and will—look at Amazon just lowered the compute cost last night on their H100 by 45% across all of AWS. Every region—they said every single region just went down by 45% last night at AWS.

Okay. The compute is going to continue to get less. And the fact—let me just say something—at this early of a stage, it is actually mind-blowing, mind-blowing that a company like OpenAI is generating 10 to 20 billion in—in topline revenue from—mostly from $20 a month subscriptions. The fact that we are this early—we're not even starting the first inning—barely of this super cycle—and they're already at that level of revenue. But if you look at whatever it's going to happen with AI over the next 10 years on the company side—on the actual commercial side.

No, no, no, no. I'm not disagreeing with you. My point is, don't count Google out just because—I'm not counting them out.

Yes, you are. Every time you talk about Google, you hate on them.

No, I'm not. I—I'm telling you, I think they're my favorite AI play. They're my favorite AI play besides probably Nvidia.

Okay. And you'll be happy to hear that eventually, um, Gemini will be integrated into iOS. They probably will not announce it at WWDC because of the whole court thing right now—trying to figure out the Google payment for Google search, but eventually Google and Gemini will be embedded as an alternative to ChatGPT built into the iPhone.

Of course it will be. Of course it will. Listen, Jordan, I believe that as of right now, Google might have the best AI in the world and might—might have the very—be—get even better—that the—the actual—the actual—the actual spread might get even wider in the next few years. I think if you were to look forward 15 years, I think Google might be my number one. Okay, my number one asset.

What I'm saying is—what I'm saying is that when you have 80 to 85% of a company's revenue generated from search dollars, my research has led me to believe that one, they are going to lose a meaningful amount of that foot traffic. I don't know if it's 20% or 30% or 40% to competitors, especially ChatGPT because I've seen it happen with me—and—wrong. I just think that they have to play a balancing act and not just throw out all of this search revenue, right? So, they've got to—they've got to figure out how to do both.

Well, it's a hard problem to solve. It's a hard problem to solve in the short run. I—I—what I'm saying is, I think—I think Google's done a lot of really interesting things with AI. They are innovative, and I think they will find a way to balance. And for the record, Google was not a profitable company either for three full years before they figured out how to turn—turn profit. And Amazon. Guess how long Amazon operated before they had a profit according to AI?

Nine years.

Nine years.

Yeah. Yeah. So it—it—I think—I don't think it's—I don't think it's unusual that any more than they make. OpenAI won't be profitable one day. My point is, I don't think we really know what the—because like these people—they're paying 20 bucks. How much are they actually taxing? How much are they using? I don't know. But if you start to put serious work on these things, what's the true cost of compute when you start to put agents into things like that? I just don't think we know that yet.

I—I don't think we need to know it. I don't think it matters right now. Right now, I don't think it—I don't think it matters—the—You know why, Jordan? This—I'm going to—I'm going to go back to—to example you'll appreciate—Robin Hood. If you go back to what Robin Hood was doing the first five, six years that it launched, it was insane, right? The amount of money they were spending to acquire customers and actually manage that company when they were making very, very little money.

Okay, very little money. It was a long-term mindset. You know why? Because Robin Hood knew that the ultimate value of—of owning the financial transa—right—the financial means to—to—to—to a billion people—right—ultimately it would take care of itself, and if you believe—yeah, it's a long game—right—so with that—the—the game is you get people onto your platform, and then as their net worth grows over time—boom—like, you know—and for the—Robin Hood took 11 years to become profitable. It would concern me right now—I—if—if OpenAI was profitable. Do you know why?

No. No. And I don't disagree with you, Chris. And that wasn't the point. I should—I articulated it poorly. So, I don't think that that's a problem. I just don't know what the true cost is going to be when this starts to get rolled out into, you know, trying to replace people's jobs and things like that.

Okay. So, so let me counteract that. I—I agree with you. I'm gonna answer that by saying whatever the true cost is, Jordan, I believe that the value of—of the product is so high that—that the end-user will be willing to pay that—whatever that cost is—eventually plus some because the industry of intelligence—even the little that we've seen right now—is so unbelievably productive and efficient, right? That—and we're in such early—we're in the earliest days. We're in the days when this is so inefficient—the way that we're operating this industry of intel. It's so inefficient. Like nobody has synthesized any of this yet, even remotely well, right? It could be 10 years before the commercial world really gets good at synthesizing this industry and productizing it so that—so that the output—right—of—of the demand—I—is done efficiently. But whatever it is, we're gonna pay for it. We're gonna pay for it because you know what's really expensive, Jordan? What's exceptionally expensive is humans. Human work. What we pay a human to do the dumbest things. We're paying so much money right now to have people do the thing that AI can do so easily. I mean, Dave, would you agree?

Some—some of it, right? So, some of it—um—LLMs are good at—um, you know, just like base data entry and things like that, doing known tasks, but yeah, the creatable for LLMs to do at this point in time. I—I would—I would say a lot—LLMs are better at doing most things, including today's thumbnail. By the way, I just said, well, any Trump fighting—you do that—that's—that's like—that's known already. Jordan, if you get on Google's new text-to-video generator that came out a few weeks ago and you don't piss your p—I—You're like, if this thing could do what I just saw it do, what are you talking about? VO3. Yeah. If it could do what I just saw it do, I'm pretty sure it could. That's why Google is my f—That's why Google's my favorite. I—Jordan—DeepMind. All right. Have you guys seen the DeepMind movie yet that I told you to watch? What was it called—on—on Demis Hassabis? The documentary. I've been asking you to watch it for like two months now. Um, just Google the Demis Hassabis movie. It's—I think—watch Mountain Head—and I made it about an hour into that yesterday. I couldn't even make it through the plot synopsis. Terrible.

Okay, hold on. I fell asleep. I'm not even kidding. Mountain. What is going on? Jordan, how have you not watched The Thinking Game yet? It is such an extraordinary documentary. It's about Google DeepMind and Demis Hassabis. I'm going to tell you right now, nobody has more respect for that man and that team than me. I hope that Google gives him the CEO position eventually, okay? Because th—that guy is insane—that—that's running DeepMind and AI at Google. That guy is awesome. Uh, so I am a huge believer in the technology at Google, but I am a huge doubter when it comes to that incumbent company's ability to productize—commercialize—actually make things happen—and it's—they are—they must be the slowest company on earth when it comes to making decisions and actually doing anything when it comes to actually monetizing their technology. They're—they're terrible. They're terrible at it. They'll fix it eventually because they have a big—slow company. They're—they're a big—Apple has the same problem. They're a big slow. But do you know what happens, Dave? They can't make a radical change because it would unravel everything that they've built. But Dave, do you know what changes? You know what makes a big slow company change when they have a reckoning? They have to learn the hard way. And what I've been saying is Google has to have their reckoning before we can actually see the rebuild happen. Okay? And I think a reckoning is likely coming before the Google that me and you want to see, Jordan. Like I—I think that reckoning is going to happen because they just can't get out of their own way. I just think that the whole—if the entire management team isn't meeting weekly about this and trying to figure out what their path forward is, then it'd be insane. I—I think they have to be doing that.

Well, Jordan, I saw an interview with Google's CEO this week, and I was like, I can't wait. He's going to have the—Yeah. It was so pitiful. I—It was literally so—There's—He was on—He was on Lex Fridman, by the way, and I—I just started it yesterday, but I haven't finished it yet. I—I was like, "This is not—They are not—They have not learned their lesson yet." That's all I walked away going, this company, they have not learned their lesson yet. You know why? They haven't—They haven't had their reckoning yet. Because they've always been saved by something. You know what saved them this last quarter, Jordan? You know what saved them was their investment in—um—what—what was it? They had an investment that did like 8 billion of—off-the-book profits that—that hid the issue that Google was having. Who—someone in the comments—I don't know. They're invested in all sorts of stuff.

No, no, no. This is not just a—what, guys? Someone tell us in the comments what was the one-time uh gain that Google had this last—um—it—it was like an eight billion dollar windfall—whimo—whimo—okay—so—so maybe—was it—was like a distribution—something like that—billion dollar investment in SpaceX—they had a—they had a markup in—okay—they just marked their books up—okay—they had a—Jordan, it was the most massive markup. I think it was an $8 billion profit markup. Um, yeah, the—the valuation doubled from 175 billion to 350 billion. It—and that—that is what saved Google this quarter. And so, because they're able to hide—they just barely scrape by, right, every quarter, they haven't had the reckoning. I think it's coming. I think it's coming.

It could be. I'm worried about Apple, too, because when it comes to companies that are slow-moving and haven't really innovated. I mean, they're innovating, but not really. And they're all—they are also kind of paralyzed because they can't really come out with a brand-new iPhone. Although they do a flip version that will be coming—a foldable version that's uh coming next year uh or the year after, but they can't really make a dramatic change because everybody loves the iPhone. And if they upset that balance—this new operating system—what if people hate the design as much as they hated iOS 7 when it—when it changed everything?

Dave, I truly do believe for Apple. Um, and people will rip me for this. I mean, you know, my whole world is humanoids. I haven't seen anything in Apple, but again, I—I do know that they believe they're making big strides with their humanoid platform internally. Um, they are in the pole position for the home humanoid. And the reason why I keep saying this—cuz I think about humanoids 24/7. When it comes to the home humanoid, you basically have a piece of telecommunications equipment that is wrapped in sensors, video cameras, and audio equipment. And that is a really scary thing to bring into your home—your family's conversations, your most secret conversations. Uh, there's only one company that I could think of that could come anywhere close to gaining the consumer's trust when it comes to privacy in that setting, and it's Apple. So if—and I know it's a big if—if Apple is able to at some point in the next eight years—eight, nine years actually—release a home humanoid, I think that could be the savior for that company. And I know it's not going to happen for a while because there's so many safety issues involved and the tech isn't quite there yet and Apple needs it to be like—but I think they're playing the long game, and I think that part of the reason they are so secure—security focused and privacy first is because they know that their future depends on it. Where Google has the reputation of—well, we read every Gmail so that we can serve you better advertising. Apple is like—you want to opt out of uh letting every app on your phone track you? Yeah, we have a setting for that, and we turn it on by default.

And Dave, also while Apple hasn't really had its financial reckoning yet. Let's be honest, the auto program that they worked on for like eight years was a huge internal embarrassment for them. And also the headset that me and you—I still love it. I—I think it's the—the maybe the most interesting piece of technology that I've ever witnessed in my life. It's the most interesting but the least used piece of a technology that I own. It's—okay—every time I put it on, I'm like, "Oh yeah, I should use this more." And then 30 minutes later, it's like, "Yeah, I know why I don't use this. It's clunky. It's just sitting on you." I sold mine like a month and a half after I bought it for not too much less than I paid for it. Um, I—I love it, but it just—for whatever—sometimes—for whatever reason—the—the—the product market fit just doesn't work—and it just doesn't work. You—It's undefeatable. It doesn't work. And even—even the smart glasses, you know, that have stripped-down technology, I just don't—I don't see a use for that. I don't want to wear glasses all day every day.

You could probably fit a lot of technology into those glasses you're wearing right now, Chris.

I don't want to wear glasses.

Well, you get used to them. I'll tell you that. You get used to them. Um, I actually hate taking them on and off because they're just reading glasses. So, I just bought the kind that has like split. So, like the top part I can see.

Bifocals.

Yeah. No, no, not bifocal readers. I—Yeah. And the bottom part is the reader part. So, I haven't gotten them yet. They're the same glasses that—that way—cuz I hate like—Oh, I like—I don't, you know, and then I—I got to read or see this and I got to put them back on. Um, I'm just waiting for uh augmented reality contact lenses. The technology is being worked on. They just project the image directly into your retina.

All right, so let's go—Hood. Man, I just checked my stocks, and uh—this is what I was hoping for, and this is why I didn't exit out of my options because I was feeling—I was feeling that Hood would start to gain momentum in the last half of today going into this S&P thing tonight. Listen, this S&P deal is a big deal. Hood has got to be one of the biggest retail trader stocks. Everyone's been talking about this. Everything's up though. Tesla's up 5%. Palantir's up 5%. Amazon's up 2%. Google's up 3%. Hood 5%. I need more Hood. I really need more Hood. Look at ELF getting back up there at 117. Look at ELF. Uh, got to love it. Got to love it, man. Uh, let's give everybody—after everything that we all went through as investors yesterday. Wouldn't it be nice to have like just a weekend—an up Friday, dude? Let's just close this thing out. Let's just close it out today and have everybody have a good weekend, man. I think we—we deserve it. We got it. We're ending in the right direction. We deserve it. We deserve it. I really hope this market just ends strong. Like, I feel like—just mentally—I know I need it. So, I think everyone needs it, man. Oh, man. And then let's get H and Linda. We'll really have a rocking weekend with Hood and the S&P. That would be exciting. That would be exciting. Although I—I wish I had more Hood. I feel like I don't have enough for it to hit the S&P right now. I actually have a Zoom with South Korea that I have to get on here in a few minutes uh talking about robots. So, all right. I'm gonna talk.

That's how you're so knowledgeable about what it takes to trade stock in South Korea. I'm talking to South Koreans about robots. Uh, that's pretty much my day now. Talking to someone about robots. So, you might—if you're going to be on your uh setup—you might want to restart your computer.

That's actually a great idea. That's actually—Thank you for saying that. James wants to know—because I wouldn't—I wouldn't have done that, Jordan. And I really do need it. Are there any more really good comments that we need to address here? I'm just looking through. You have to reboot. We don't even—you don't even have time for your meeting. It's already 12:30. All right. You've done this for an hour and a half. What?

Dave, are you in town next week? Can we do this? Can we do this a Hong Kong trade?

Yes, we can do the Hong Kong trade. We can also do a uh a Robin Hood uh show and an Nvidia show because those are the stocks that I like to talk about.

I don't know what Hong Kong Trade is. That seems really boring to me.

But it's not boring. It's the opposite of bor—I will promise you—I promise you one thing. It is—It'll be our most watched episode.

Of the day. It is not boring. That's all I'm going to say. It is not boring. It's not Nvidia, Tesla, or Robin Hood, but it is definitely not boring.

All right. Well, I'll show up and hopefully everyone else will, too. You got to give Chris a chance on this one.

By the way, to everyone watching today, thank you. Like, I feel like we have more people watching today than we've had in a really long time. And obviously, it's a big week in the market. And did you remember to tweet this? No, I did not. Well, we could have even had more. Yeah, I didn't. I did not. Twitter is kind of killing it right now with uh I think that Twitter traffic went up massively yesterday. I heard it like hit an all-time high yesterday, right?

Oh, yeah. Which makes sense.

Um all right, guys. Dave. All right, that's it. We're done. Money. We'll see you next time. [Music] That's [Music]