Transcription
We need to see higher pricing in gold this week down to near $4,000 an ounce, and it found support yesterday. Uh, next week is so critical with our first level of potential resistance coming in at 4375 to 4360. If it can break through 4350-60, then I believe that we've got a clear shot to about 4500 before we encounter any kind of strong technical resistance.
To silver, it managed to stabilize in that $66 to $68 range. I feel like it hasn't shown the same bounce energy kind of today that we're seeing in gold. But if you look at the silver chart I've just put up, the red line represents the long-term simple 200-day moving average, and the green line represents the long-term 50-day moving average. And you can see that silver has popped just above this.
One of the reasons we're seeing pressure is that inflation is up and raise the expectations of one rate hike this year by the Fed.
Let's stretch out maybe beyond next week just for a moment. I mean, for for this summer gold trade, are you expecting this floor to kind of hold and launch that next leg higher, or do you think gold chops sideways and and, you know, rebuilds before any real breakout here?
Either one would be a bullish scenario after you consider that it was well above 5,500 and dropped to 4,000. That's a tremendous drop. And that with a series of lower highs all the way down and then a lower low compared to this low and then this low here, if in terms of like support, if it did drop, I would look at this bottom right here, and this comes in at around 3930. But I that would be the most logical place if we saw a dip, but I do believe there is at least a 60 to 70% probability that we will find the floor.
Now, if we do, does that mean that the the bullish faction is is out of the, uh, that the bullish faction is able to work with this and move it higher? And are we back in a bull market?
Yeah.
>> To do that, we have to overcome a couple of levels of resistance. This first one at 4378, and it's based upon these real bodies that came in mid-March, and then again this point at 4500. 4500 again is a key psychological number as well as having some data, but not really strong data because you can see it's kind of above and below as recently, let's say, as the end of May. And it's this bottom, I believe, that if we can overcome that, this is where we might find potential resistance if we get follow-through.
Now, today we're not seeing much action. It's almost unchanged on the day. But then again, I think that, uh, the IPO launch by Elon Musk is taken a lot of fuel out of other markets, other equities, as well as the commodity markets as a whole.
>> Markets can stay flat while positioning changes underneath them. And that's usually when investors get trapped. As Gary Wagner points out here, a collapse from 5600 to 4,000 followed by repeated failed recoveries is not normal bull market behavior, even if support temporarily holds. The bigger signal is that attention shifted away from commodities without forced liquidation, suggesting capital rotation instead of panic. For wealth preservation investors, resistance levels matter less than whether conviction returns before liquidity does. Next, Gary Wagner exposes why temporary stability can disguise a deeper transfer of capital already underway.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Speaking of fuel, uh, when we spoke to you last, I think it was back in early May, Gary, you mapped out kind of that Elliot wave structure pointing to that $6,000 level gold by maybe end of year, noting though that huge deep pullbacks are often necessary expenditure of, of energy. I mean, you know, given the technical damage that we kind of saw in the metals as it tested that $4,000 level, is that broader bullish kind of road map still intact, or, or does this recent price action force you to kind of recount the waves here?
>> Well, I think that, um, obviously what we're witnessing is, is, and the most current data is what we have to pay most attention to. The fact that we broke down and we broke below this one area at around 4365. Even if the top ends up being right around 5600, granted it's not 6,000. If that's the case, I think it's going to be a hard climb back up. Honestly, it could do that. But we have to see other things because what we have also seen over this year is basic nuances to basic paradigms that didn't have the kind of push-pull we're seeing now. And what I mean by that is one of the reasons we're seeing pressure is that inflation is up, and that has raised the expectations. I believe according to the CME's Fed Watch tool, it's at around a 56% probability, kind of in the middle of one rate hike this year by the Fed. And it seems as though inflation has always been a, a dynamic that could have really bullish tailwinds for gold. In this case, we saw bearish tailwinds because they're looking at, yes, there's higher inflation, but is that temporary? And a rate hike will not be temporary. They're not going to raise rates and then cut them at, at the next FOMC meeting.
The market keeps saying inflation helps gold. Yet, price action keeps refusing the script. According to Gary Wagner, the more important break wasn't the missed 6,000 target. It was losing key technical structure while inflation expectations climbed. That contradiction matters because markets are no longer rewarding inflation itself. Their pricing policy response risk. For long-term holders, the danger is assuming all correlations still work while institutions quietly adapt to a different regime. Next, Gary Wagner reveals why rate expectations, not inflation headlines, may be driving the next metals move.
Now, the rate hike is not really expected at the meeting that will transpire next week, but sometime this year. And so that's what it seems as though market participants are focusing on more than the fact that inflation has rose, I believe, uh, the the last numbers that came out was 4.2% on an annual basis, which is well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for inflation.
>> Yeah, well said. I don't know if they'll ever get back to that 2%. Okay, I got to pivot over to, to silver. It managed to stabilize in that 66 to $68 range. I feel like it hasn't shown the same bounce energy kind of today that we're seeing in gold, at least. I mean, based on your futures chart, is silver's hesitation kind of that potential warning sign that the broader metals space isn't kind of out of the woods yet, you think?
Well, I brought up a chart in which we're looking. Let me, uh, get this to our current data here. I've got silver obviously on the left and then gold on the right. And you can see that although silver fell out of bed.
>> Mhm.
When we look at gold, and I'm going to move back to the full-size chart, it really fell much harder in terms of the percentage draw down in this case, which typically we look at silver to outperform gold on the upside and outperform the decline as it's going down. The attention has been in, in gold. And I believe that's because when we look at this long-term chart, I've just compressed our daily chart. This was a long methodical climb back up. Really, if we start from the end of October 2025 at 3,900 up to this first unreal high on a futures contract, that's what we're looking at, not spot. We went, we exceeded 5600, but then we expected some sort of decline, but this isn't the first cycle where inflation stayed high while medals lost momentum. And that timing should make investors uncomfortable. What Gary Wagner is highlighting is that markets appear more focused on future tightening than current inflation prints, which flips the standard gold narrative on its head. Silver failing to immediately lead also weakens the emotional recovery story traders want to believe. For portfolio protection, delayed confirmation matters more than dramatic intraday rebounds. Next, Gary Wagner unravels why silver's hesitation may be telling a different story than gold's recovery.
>> We got this huge sell-off which only lasted two days. The big day being, uh, the 30th of January when gold opened roughly at 5400 and closed at 4,900. So, a huge drop in the market. I think that spooked a lot of people, and it did recover though, but with a lower high and then a secondary lower high and to some degree a lower high here. So the fact that we have hit this bottom, I think what's important is many traders, uh, will look at key numbers, and the I call them the century marks, meaning 4,000 is a, a key level that you want to watch. Now, historically, we don't have a ton of data that matches really good consolidation, but I think what works to the bull's favor right now is the recovery of yesterday in which it traded to the lowest low that we have seen since November and then bounced off of that really, really strongly to 4,200. Today it opened a little bit higher, but as I say, today it's interesting because we're basically unchanged. And I don't, I, I look at that, you can say, well, it's summer trading, which the the liquidity and the volume tends to contract, but I think it's other things going on in the financial markets, specifically the IPO that's just sucked the attention of multiple asset classes, at least for today. That's going to change next week because now that new issue is in the marketplace, and, and the IPO itself is only going to happen once, and that was today.
>> So that, I mean, you know, taking a little bit of that capital that bit out. I mean, silver, getting back to silver, I got to ask you because, I mean, it's historically the, the high beta leader in, in this space. I mean, doesn't its failure to kind of aggressively bounce alongside gold signal that that underlying structure of this metals rally is a little bit weaker than it was right now, and maybe those capital flows too?
Markets went sideways, but attention moved, and capital migration often shows up before price confirms it. Gary Wagner's argument suggests the violent January reversal damaged confidence more than most charts admit, even if headline prices recovered. When investors chase new issuance and speculative themes instead of defensive assets, liquidity can disappear without warning. For people preserving wealth, a weak silver response after a sharp sell-off deserves more attention than a temporary gold bounce. Next, Gary Wagner exposes whether this rebound is conviction returning or simply capital rotating.
Well, that is true. But if you look at the silver chart I've just put up, the red line represents the long-term simple 200-day moving average, and the green line represents the long-term 50-day moving average. And you can see that silver has popped just above this. And this is a daily chart. Now, when we go to gold, uh, let's put up the ribbon again so we can make some sort of comparison. What you can see is once gold broke below, again in red, the 200-day, 50-day. 50-day indicates what our short-term trend is above that price point. Short-term, we're, we're looking at a bull market. Below it means we entered a bear market. And we can see that back in March is when we broke through it, and that acted as resistance not only in April, but, uh, then again on May 12th. So we saw times when gold would move up and rather than challenging and break back above the 50, because when we look at this long record, and you'll see that gold has remained pretty much above its 50-day moving average up until the middle of March. And we have seen really a year, a year and a half in which we saw gold moved tremendously once it broke above that, which would be January 2025, except for a little area in which it challenged that, prices stayed above the 50-day moving average. And that's where all of the bulls, including myself, came out and said, "Well, this is concrete technical evidence that we are solidly in a bull market." But that's up until we weren't. In other words, when we broke through this level, this level was a key and critical level, and it took much lower. As I said, this week down to near $4,000 an ounce, and it found support yesterday. And that's why to me, uh, next week is so critical because we need to see follow-through buying.
Most investors don't lose money buying tops. They lose it assuming all support levels still mean safety. This is where Gary Wagner's thesis shifts from momentum to validation because reclaiming a moving average is meaningless if participation never returns. The uncomfortable part is that technical systems only look reliable until they break all at once. Long-term investors should care less about price targets and more about whether markets accept higher prices after the bounce. Next, Gary Wagner reveals the hidden difference between support holding and a real bull market returning.
>> And we need to see higher pricing in gold with our first level of, I believe, potential resistance coming in at 4375 to 4360. That's the area we want to look at. If it can break through 4350, then I believe that we've got a clear shot to about 4500 before we encounter any kind of strong technical resistance.
>> Yeah. [music] Yeah. Interesting. So, 43. Okay. Okay. Hey, and before, uh, because I got to ask you about the CME before we do that, and again, I'm going back to silver for a second, but everyone's asking for it just because the carnage has been interesting. I wanted to, I mean, it's the higher beta metal right now. You brought up that moving average. It just kind of reclaimed that moving average. Is that kind of a meaningful breakout signal, or, or do you just need a daily close above it to kind of confirm the move?
>> Well, you, you want to see more than just a close above it. You want to see a sustained move and either consolidation with it trading just above it, not necessarily moving much higher. What you don't want to see is on a closing basis for more than two or 3 days, uh, for prices to move back below it. And that's the key difference also because if you recall from our gold chart, and I'll just pull up real quick. You can see how far once gold broke through the 200-day it had been tra trading and trailing lower, but it's never really challenged that again. Unlike gold, silver was able to break below it and a couple days later come to it and then recapture it. I just want to verify we're looking at a daily chart, which we are. So just today moving back above it, yesterday moving to it. And to a market technician, the 200-day determines the long-term trend of a stock or commodity.
A single strong day feels convincing until you realize most reversals begin exactly that way. According to Gary Wagner, reclaiming a major moving average only matters if price can stay there while enthusiasm cools. That challenges the popular idea that technical breakouts are instant confirmation instead of probation periods. Investors protecting capital should treat recovery moves as tests of demand rather than proof of strength. Next, Gary Wagner exposes why sustained participation, not headlines, is the real signal institutions watch.
in this case, gold. And so as it, as it trades above it, we can say that on a really long-term basis because this is basically a one-year average. The 50-day, of course, is much shorter. But we look at this for long-term trend definition. If it's trading above it, we consider that bullish. Now I've compressed the silver chart, and you can see once we break above it, it does challenge the 50-day, but it widens in terms of where current price is to the 200-day, and as, as it widens, you can see the acceleration. Of course, the 50-day is more sensitive, and that's why you see the widening between the 50 and 200-day, but then you saw them contracting, meaning the distance between the 200 and the 50, and as it contracts X, we've already seen chart damage. And with silver, we broke below the 50, we moved back above, then we broke below it. We're well below the 50-day, but now we've broken back above the 200-day moving average.
>> And that on a long-term basis is important because market technicians use these two, uh, average lengths, meaning a 50-day and a 200-day, to determine short-term trend and long-term trend. And it's really easy once we put these up to see what a bullish trend it was in. And the fact that it broke through here, comes back up and breaks through. You know that we're not in a fully bullish demeanor after we had this severe break after hitting the all-time record high in gold, which, excuse me, silver, which was above a $120 per ounce.
>> I remember those days, Gary.
>> I remember those days. I remember them. Well, uh, hey Gary, how many years you've been doing this for?
>> Since 84. So, a good amount of years. Uh, well over 40.
The most dangerous market phase is when long-term indicators improve while confidence quietly deteriorates. Gary Wagner notes that silver reclaiming the 200-day average does not erase the damage created by repeated breaks below shorter term trend signals. The contradiction is that investors celebrate recovery while institutions usually wait for durability and follow-through. If your goal is preserving purchasing power, trend quality matters more than headline gains.