Transcription
How close though do you think it'll be? Do you think we'll see a closer fair between the two?
>> Yeah, I do because I don't think Brazil's shown the propensity to beat any team by a lot other than Haiti, right? So, I, I think it's going to be a tough game. I think Norway provides a threat going forward as we know. They're resilient defensively. I think Brazil has a difficult time breaking teams down that are, that are in a lower block, and so I think we're going to see a competitive match. I would favor Brazil just because of, like, what we talked about, the, the experience a little bit. I think they have a couple of game changers in certain positions. Obviously, Holland is one guy that can, to some degree, be taken care of by two people if the ball doesn't ever get there. Whereas there's other players on Brazil like Vini and some other players that I think can make a little bit more of a difference. I would, I would slightly edge Brazil, but it would not be surprising at all if Norway takes it.
>> You're giving them the edge too, Troy?
>> Yeah, I think you have to. I think experience, again, the weight of the jerseys you're talking about, those, those come into it. I, I do feel at some point now the weight of the jersey and the expectation will start to fall onto these Brazilian players, not all of them. The likes of [clears throat] Vinicius Junior is been a superstar for so long that he's used to having a heavy shirt because that's what happens when he plays for Real Madrid and obviously for the national team. I do also think one key battle is, is the manager in Carlo Ancelotti. He's done everything right so far in terms of even the, the president of the country is coming out talking about Neymar. And he goes, "No problem. I'm going to put him in for this game." And that's the only time we've seen him. Put him in for what? 10, 15 minutes? Now I'm going to drag him back. And again, how easy would it, would it be in, in the last game where couldn't break down a low block, the fans are calling for Neymar, they want Neymar, but he goes, "Hey, Endrick, you go in. You're a young guy. I want to give you I'm going to give you some air time that you haven't had." But it'd be very easy to put Thiago in. Who he started if you Everything he's doing has been calculated. He's got okay, Thiago, you started you missed a massive chance against Morocco. Come and sit on the bench. We're going to use you further down the line, but you got to understand that when you were Brazil, you get one moment you get to score. This is not Brentford. Every little tweak, if you look at it from a managerial point of view, he's been fantastic and I, and that's why I give them the edge.
>> Maybe even leaving in Casemiro cuz that was that was a bit worrying, wasn't it?
>> he had the second half and Martinelli obviously slightly out of position and then he gets the game winner. So, unbelievable.
>> Listen, this is be straight up and honest. There's not but maybe two teams that can break a low block right now. Messi, maybe France. Yeah. Olise in there. Besides that, tell me another team right now that can break that low block. So, it's in transition where it's going to happen.
>> Doesn't seem like it.
>> No, it's I don't see it. Tell me another team right now. We keep talking about Brazil wanting to break low block. It's not the Brazil of old. They don't have that
>> No, I agree.
>> Messi can because that's the type of player he is. Mbappé can because, or Olise can drop into the midfield. Dembélé can drop in. They can do things that are different. There's not a lot of teams that can break a low block. So, it's going to come down like we've seen in transition. We saw the goal in transition. Maybe a set piece. So, with Brazil, they're not going to break down a low block. They're going to be okay with it. Listen, today we saw Norway's okay not having the ball. When they do get it, they hit you quickly on a counter attack.
>> I think the big, I think the big thing like for that again, so many people talk about wide players or the 10s getting it. But, if your midfield two don't move the ball fast enough and because when a team backs off, it's very easy for a midfielder to get it. You can talk this a lot better than me, but just dropping in, getting it off the center half easy. And then you're moving it left to right, you look great. But, actually staying on the opposite side of the, of the set center forward, getting it on the half turn and now punching balls through or moving it left and right, that's where the game is won. If your two holding midfielders or one holding midfielder moves it from left to right with, with pace, that's how you break down a low block. And then I've teed it up myself, don't worry. You've been flabbergasted today. We've got a low block. Me and Jen have been working on this in the [laughter] back. But just, just to get, Look at the average. This is the average positions that you're starting to see. So of Norway. So look how low they are in terms of the two center halves spread it out. [music] But look, all of the midfielders are just kind of running around Haaland. Haaland is obviously the number nine in there. Odegaard at times is the highest player. Everyone is in the middle of pitch. And they're saying to you effectively saying to you, "You want to beat us? Go around the sides." And again, we spoke about it a lot yesterday. Around not through is always better. And Norway are one of the best at it. So they've got You want to cross it? No worries. Our two center halves are 6'4, 6'5.
>> [music]
>> We can deal with that. If you want to have crosses from corners, no problem. We'll bring 6'6 Erling Haaland back as well. And then they just get, they get bigger and taller in those moments. So for Brazil, it's about dominating those middle, middle pitch, middle parts of the pitch. And then also not falling into the trap of going and get the ball off the center halves and being really sloppy and lazy going forward.
>> shown the ability to do that.
>> Not yet. Not yet.
>> it. And the way they beat Japan was through aerial presence in the box by flooding the box and getting balls in. I mean, Gabriel was the one that crossed that from almost the, the top of the, the D area there, right? Where, where Casemiro gets on the end of it. So I don't think they're going to be able to do that against Norway. Like you said, 6'6 center backs. It's more the other way around where maybe if Norway is able to do that against Brazil, could Erling Haaland get on the end of one of those? So transitional moments, set pieces, crosses.
>> But again, that goes to Ancelotti's greatness, right? Because in the first half they would try to go wide and then typically have the underlap and they tried to slide it in and then they, they must have said at half time, "Hey guys, we're just physically taller than them. Let's just put crosses in the box and see if they can defend." And then as soon as they got one, they, they a corner from it. It was like, "Oh, this works." And then everyone [laughter] just kept, I think we saw it yesterday. I think in the first half it was nine, maybe 10 crosses. Second half it's 28 crosses cuz they just understood, "Okay, we're bigger, we're stronger. Let's just keep going."
>> Simple. And again, how many teams don't do that? They have one way of playing and if that doesn't work, they do it again.
>> I blame one person for that. That's Pep.
>> No problem.
>> Pep changed the whole game because
>> [laughter]
>> I mean, you, you saw that with other games, too. In the Germany game against Paraguay in the first half, Germany is just playing in front of Paraguay the whole time trying to find little passes, but there's 10 guys behind the play and so it's very difficult. Second half, they go down one nothing obviously back in the first half. Now the goal comes from a, a cross from 45 yards out where, you know, you get a little flick and it goes in. So it's, it's dangerous. Can somebody defend lots and lots of crosses and aerial balls? I don't know.
>> Speaking of defending, we're going to have a look between these two teams and go through position by position and decide who has the edge. Let's start with the goalkeepers. Obviously, we've got Alisson for Brazil and Nayland for Norway. Who are we going for here?
>> Easy. Brazil.
>> easy. Yeah, that's an easy one. That's unfortunate.
>> All right, let's move on to the back line then. You were just talking about the height that the Norwegian back line has. Are you taking them, Marcelo?
>> If, if you went just on names, I'm going to pose this to you, Was. On names it's Brazil, right?
>> Yeah.
>> In terms of unit working together and organization, I would actually give this to, to Norway.
>> I would think watching them play Senegal, watching today's game the way they defended, they, they were very well organized. Yes, they got hit for the goal. That's an amazing goal. I mean, individual play dribbling through three guys, but it's tough not to go with Brazil, but I think the structure that the Norway has on that back line, the way they move in the ball, I would give it to Norway right now.
>> That's crazy, isn't it? With the names like you mentioned Troy Gabriel, Marquinhos, Danilo, [music] Douglas Santos. What about the midfield then? Who are we going for? Norway? Brazil?
>> Easy.
>> Is it?
>> Yeah.
>> Let me know. Who?
>> Easy, isn't it?
>> No way.
>> Yeah, exactly.
>> Is it?
>> [laughter]
>> That for the audience is called a big nibble.
>> Yeah.
>> [laughter]
>> Look, again, it's our name.
>> don't know who you guys actually pick.
>> No, no. Our name Our names I would actually say Brazil. And and also
>> age is what, 35 over there in Brazilian?
>> But the difference is they play forward.
>> Yeah.
>> Do you think Casemiro doesn't play forward?
>> I don't know, but did you watch Odegaard today?
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. That's
>> Every time they play back I, I would give this one to Brazil. I think Paqueta obviously is, is injury concerns, but I would, If you, If he comes out then you drop Cunha down there that adds a big, a big difference.
>> that's what they have to do. I think they should play Endrick up top that gives them a little bit something different in terms of being dynamic and just, you know, s- making some vertical runs, opening up those gaps in between the lines, and, and maybe now some midfielders
>> [music]
>> like Cunha or whoever else can receive the balls, maybe even Vinny can come inside, but they didn't do anything in the first half and in the second half it was much more of aerial presence in the box.
>> What about the wingers that we saw Nusa today, saw Laugh, and then you've got Raph, Vinny Junior as well.
>> This one's easy for me. This one's the easy one. Well, I guess strikers is easy, too. Yeah, I go with Brazil [music] with the wingers. I mean, just Vinny, and it's there's no one like Vinny on his, Vinny on his own is, is a guy that can change the game. I mean, you talk about that run that he made,
>> [music]
>> you know, the nutmeg, then the, the, the Messi play on Boateng, right? With the, the fake shot with the right cut it back to left and then outside of the foot to the post. I don't think anybody on Norway can do that, so I'll give it to Vinny.
>> [music]
>> And then for the
>> We're going to let you take this one. We're [laughter] going to let you take this one.
>> No way. You've got no way. No arguments from anybody. Erling Haaland. A bit like Vinny, once you see Erling Haaland's name on, I think you're going to take that, aren't you? So, okay, so slightly edge to Brazil then in the positions but, but not by too much.
>> No.
>> Norway with the back line and Norway with the striker.
>> Yeah, and, and that again we're talking about individual qualities at that moment to, to separate it but when you talk about a collective if you, if there was one that was like a team, I think Norway would take the edge on that because Norway have been together, they've been fantastic and now they're, they're building in confidence as well. And again you use the word free hit, I wouldn't use that but they can certainly be in a situation where they're like there's no pressure on us. We can implement our game. They have to break us down and for all of us that's the best team to be in when all the emphasis is on the other team to break us down. So, um, now they'll be happy. Norway will be happy with that.
>> They can take all the positives, can't they? Speaking of the match up, here's the numbers from our friends at SofaScore. Just in the competition so far, [music] you can see the SofaScore rating gives the edge to Brazil just over seven, just uh
>> [music]
>> under seven for Norway. Let's see what our betting expert though, McKenzie Brooks, [music] thinks about this round of 16 clash. Good to see you, McKenzie. Uh what would you tell people to go with in a game like this to make a bit of money?
>> You know, it's funny if you're just going off the trends of the World Cup so far and you guys know in studio this is something I've been betting on. It's like death, taxes both teams to score. That's been something that's been hitting in the round of 16. I mean, is it, you know, you could say how could this continue to happen? I think it's going to happen with France and Sweden. I'm not, not as sure about Ecuador but what I'm saying is I don't think you're always going to get the price that we have right now. So right now it's minus 118 for both teams to score. This has just become a very, very popular bet as casual Americans start to bet on the World Cup and soccer for the first time. I do think by the time we have kickoff this will be closer to minus 140, minus 150 just the way momentum of sports books have worked. So as far as an act now play, if that's something you're interested in, I do think it's worth getting on today. And then as far as everything else, what I, my gut reaction was maybe it's time to go for unders, right? Under two and a half goals. Now, I feel like a lot of the public is going to think Holland versus Finney, and everyone loves to bet on overs, right? So, I don't think that's necessarily something you have to take right now. I think the price could get a little bit better the closer we do get to that kickoff. But, what I will say is looking at a Brazil late goal versus Japan, and looking at that Holland late goal in this match up that we just saw, not to take away from them, but I do think those are inflating some of these match ups who have ended in regulation 1-1. So, you know, I'm not a big unders girl. My saying is unders are for losers, but I do think for this specific match up, the price we're going to get after all the goals we have seen, it might be worth taking a shot now.
>> McKenzie, what about I'm interested with you what you mentioned about the late goals there, because it is a theme, isn't it? Is that good value when you bet on a specific time in the match that you see the goals predicted to be scored? Like, if you bet in the last 15 minutes of a game, can you make some good money there?
>> You can. And the first thing I actually looked at when I went to the sports books for this game is for the highest goal scoring half to be the second half, because I feel like A for Brazil specifically, I think we see them just turn it on in the second half, but just in general with the round of 16 so far, you're definitely seeing more action, more momentum in that second half. Right now, that's plus 105. I think that's a great bet to take at this point. I don't think it will stay at plus money. I'm sure we'll see that closer to minus 115 based off the trends, and based off the games we will see before this game kicks off. So, I know you guys have been talking about it as well, just Brazil and the way that this attack really lights up in the second half. I think plus 105 for the second half to be the highest scoring half is a great play.