Transcription
The people who win your fantasy championship, they are drafting multiple breakouts, and that's how they are winning the championship. So, in today's video, we've got seven breakouts that I bet my bottom dollar on.
All right, starting off with Numero Uno, Jordan Mason. Okay, firstly, the Vikings offense, just like, as a whole, is set up to smash. They're a top-third offense in the league. Things like points per game, yards per game, red zone trips. Last year, they were top-third in the NFL. And Mason will be rushing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Vikings are top 10 in offensive line rankings when you combine PFF and fantasy points data's overall rankings. And by the way, the Vikings last year, uh, their weaknesses were was the middle of the offensive line, right? They have two good tackles, but they actually added to that offensive line. A new center in Ryan Kelly, the veteran, Will Fry, and a rookie first-round guard in Donovan Jackson could be massive upgrades. And Mason would already be considered a breakout if he just stayed healthy last year. This man was dominant as a starter for San Francisco. He got injured in week eight, but if you look at weeks 1 to 7, I mean, he was one of the best running backs in fantasy football. 40 running backs had 50 rushing attempts in that span. He ranked seventh in yards per attempt, second in rushing yards. He was top 12 in yards after contact per attempt and top 10 in missed tackles forced, breakaway percentage of 15-plus rushes and carries inside the 5-yard line. Actually, Next Gen Stats notes that from weeks 1 to 8, he led the NFL in forced missed tackle percentage. A higher missed tackle force rate than Bucky Irving, Bijan Robinson, and Ken Walker. And if your assumption is that the Vikings brought him in just to be a glorified backup, you're wrong. They've never even given him the backup tag. They went out of their way to trade for him in an incredible running back class in 2025. That speaks to their intentions. Then they went out and paid him pretty damn well for an RB2. $12 million total, $7 million guaranteed. One of the better contracts for a number two in the NFL. For reference, he's making the same money annually as Naji Harris this year. The only RB2 that's making more money annually is Devin Singletary. And when he was signed, he was signed to be the RB1 in New York.
Let's quickly talk about Aaron Jones. Yes, he's had the injury bug throughout his career. Injury Shark gives him about an 88% chance of an injury this year. They project over three missed games. But Aaron Jones is best when he is splitting work. They wanted to do that last year. They just had nobody. You watch Cam Akers. I watch Cam Akers. They didn't have a single body that they could actually split work with. Minnesota knows this. I mean, look at the look at the legs on Mason right there compared to Aaron Jones. I strongly believe you're going to see a big goal-line role for Jordan Mason. Last year, Aaron Jones was top eight in percentage of team carries inside the 5-yard line at 81%. Well, before Mason's injury in week eight, he was top three in rushes inside the 5-yard line as a starter for San Francisco. Tied with Jonathan Taylor in that span, only Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams had more attempts inside the 5-yard line. Even if Aaron Jones stays healthy, which it's very possible that he can, right? We just saw James Conner do it last year as a veteran. Kevin O'Connell has already talked about this as a split backfield. Check this out. Have a look. "Jordan Mason was a massive part of our offseason plan. We feel like we've got one of the best combinations of 1A/1B running backs in the National Football League. The goal is to keep both of them fresh, and the goal is to keep both of them 10 out of 10 ready to go play the next snap and be a problem for defenses, and I think those guys are going to do that for us." Look, I just think this is a perfect player-scheme fit. I think he's going to smash. You should draft him.
Okay. All right. At quarterback, my breakout quarterback of 2025 is Mr. Drake Maye. In the last 25 years, only six quarterbacks as a rookie have had at least 61% of their passes completed, 15 passing touchdowns, and over 420 rushing yards. Those names are: Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Jayden Daniels, RG3, Kyler Murray, and Drake May. That's it in the last two and a half decades. Okay, he's in pretty special company. Then if you look at the range of outcome tool on the Flock site, his closest rookie season in the last eight years, you're looking at names like Josh Allen, Justin Fields. Yeah, Zach Wilson is there. We're going to pretend like we're not seeing that. It's a wide range of outcomes, right? But the ceiling is a Josh Allen. The floor is a Zach Wilson, and the middle ground is a Justin Fields. Both Fields and Josh Allen massively improved their points per game as they continued their career. And there are new additions in New England this year. Uh, not pun intended there, but last year was rough. New England's leading wide receiver last year, it was not a wide receiver. It was a tight end. That was Hunter Henry. Okay. This year, they've got some massive upgrades. Stefon Diggs, the veteran, is in town. Trayvon Henderson is in town. Remember, they picked him sixth, uh, in the second round. He's already their best rusher, receiver, big-play threat. This guy is going to dominate out of the backfield and gonna make it a lot easier for Drake Maye to get some of those cupcake points as a dump-off passer.
All right, I've said this before. Y'all know how much I love this player. I'm recording in front of the Flock League right now, and everyone's watching it, so I'm putting my, you know, heart on my on my sleeve right here. But Rome Odunze, Bears fans, look at me. Look at me in the eyes. Bears fans, this year is going to be different because Ben Johnson is in town, okay? This offense should look completely different. New head coach, new play-caller, another year of growth for Caleb Williams, and the additions at the offensive line. Now, here's the thing about a Ben Johnson-led offense. We all talk about the rushing yards. Everyone knows about the rushing yards, but no one talks about what the Lions did as a passing attack, uh, when Ben Johnson was in, uh, Detroit. They were top three in passing yards per game the last two years, top eight in every year Ben Johnson was offensive coordinator there. And I know you're going to be saying things like, "Well, I don't know, Zach, like the Bears offense looks really crowded." I I get that. I understand where you're coming from, but Rome Odunze as an outside X, his role is not up for grabs. Like, you're not going to put Luther Burden outside with Rome Odunze's role. He is the guaranteed outside player on this team. His role is not going to change. And we've consistently seen multiple pass-catchers thrive in Ben Johnson's offense. In 2023, it was Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta. In 2024, it was Amon-Ra, Jameson, and Sam LaPorta. They all did pretty well. And by the way, if Rome Odunze doesn't hit this year, you know, you can come back and yell at me, but you should be upset at the historical outlier that he would be because there have been eight wide receivers drafted top 10 since 2020, not including the 2025 draft. The only wide receivers who haven't finished top 24 in points per game, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr. I think we both expect those guys to do much, much better. It's a great list that he's a part of, and it doesn't hurt that he's got some real cupcake matchups to start the year. I mean, this is the start of the Bears, uh, season. You ready for this? Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, and the Las Vegas Raiders. Some of those aren't great matchups. None of them are bad matchups, but they're all matchups that could lead to absolute, you know, barn burner type of points. Like, how, how are these not going to be competitive matchups? They're going to have to score against Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, the Raiders. You know, we'll see.
All right. Okay. Next breakout wide receiver. This is one of my favorite guys to draft down the board. Keon Coleman. Full transparency, I was not a Keon Coleman guy last year. I wasn't a Keon Coleman guy in the NFL draft, but he showed some flashes, at least enough for me to be interested at his ADP. Look, before his injury, if you look weeks 1 to 4 versus weeks 5 to 8, that first eight weeks of his career before the injury, you'll see some pretty clear growth. Like the points per game, uh, more than double. Uh, the wide receiver finish, he's a wide receiver 25 from weeks 5 to 8. Uh, the target share goes from 11% to almost 20%. Receiving yards per game from 31 to almost 70. Yards per route run is through the roof compared to his first four games. He showed real signs of growth and then unfortunately went down with an injury, and he just couldn't be the same player after that. The GM acknowledged it and said, "We were a little bit disappointed, honestly." I mean, Keon Coleman acknowledged it himself. He said he was trash. Uh, so he knows that he needs to be the better version that he was showing the breakout this year. But he'll have every opportunity to break out because everybody in Buffalo is getting injured. And if you look at that depth chart, nobody's playing outside outside of Keon Coleman. Sure, you could put Josh Palmer there, but you're not putting Khalil Shakir on the outside. Let's be for real for a second, okay? Uh, but look, the comparison tool that we just used in this, uh, take right here with Keon Coleman, that is one of the tools that you get on the Flock Fantasy website when you sign up for the season pass with the promo code LAND. Our promo code LAND is going to bring that down to $34. It's about $1.70 per week, incredibly cheap. And when you buy the season pass, you're getting unlimited access to my rankings, both right now in the offseason, in-season, as well as rest of season. You get unlimited access to the Flock site, all the premium tools. You get four vouchers. So, I'm going to help you out with your fantasy teams on my live stream. You get access to my draft guide, brand new version, just updated. Whole bunch of new information, constantly updating rankings, and you get the ability to enter live LAND community leagues. So, check that out in the pinned comment.
All right, running back breakout for 2025. You ready for this? How about Mr. Trey Benson? Let's get the elephant out of the room. If James Conner stays healthy, it's going to be tough. Okay. But he's a great player. We can agree on that. They gave him a contract extension. But this coaching staff has talked about how they view Conner and Benson as a duo in 2025. The same way that the Vikings coaching staff have talked about that with Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones. Have a listen to what the coaching staff has said. "And you see certain teams out there that have like two ones. I would say I think we should have two ones next year." Even Kyler Murray is talking about this guy breaking out. I mean, have a listen again. "This will be a big, um, you know, big breakout year for Trey. Um, you know, and I say it's the same thing with Marv. I think it's just confidence and then reps, you know, uh, letting the game slow down for him and just continue to play more football. The more football he's going to play, the better he's going to be." And lately, even James Conner is touting Trey Benson. I mean, how many signs do you need that they really like this kid? And look, there was a common theme, at least in the dynasty community this offseason, that Trey Benson was bad. That just couldn't be further from the truth. Like, yeah, he was bad for fantasy, but he was a good football player. If you don't count the first two weeks where he was kind of getting integrated into the NFL, from week three onwards last year, out of 70 running backs with at least 40 attempts, he ranked fifth in yards per attempt, sixth in yards after contact per attempt. He was top 10 in elusive rating. And he was still a really good receiver out of the backfield, 24th in yards per route run. And in that span, he averaged more points per touch than JK Dobbins, Naji Harris, Brian Robinson, DeAndre Swift, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, CMC, and Jonathan Taylor. So yes, he was disappointing for fantasy football, but he was not a bad player. He could be a sleeping giant this year.
All right, my breakout tight end. And does it count if it's a rookie? I don't know. I don't care. I make the rules here. Okay, we're going to another Bear in Chicago. That is Cole Kmet. A rookie tight end. Yes, a rookie tight end. The NFL is using these guys earlier and earlier in their career. Uh, hey, in 2023, a rookie tight end finished as a tight end one. Sam LaPorta. I wonder who his offensive coordinator was. Ben Johnson. Same guy that just drafted this guy. Top 15 in the NFL draft in 2024. Last year, a rookie tight end finished as a tight end one and his draft capital. Cole Kmet, it it shows you the intentions of the team. It shows a potential special prospect. Here is every tight end drafted in the top 15 in the last decade. The two guys this year, then Bowers, Pitts, Hockenson. That's the end of the list. And don't forget that Kmet last year accounted for over 35% of Michigan's entire air attack. People are looking at stats at a box score and saying, "Well, look at what Cole Kmet did as a tight end." I mean, you got to look at the stats with context. He contributed to over 35% of the entire passing attack in Michigan. Don't sleep on him. By the way, we like to do a little money meets mouth every once in a while here. Kmet is my highest drafted player on the Fast Draft app. 29.2% at the tight end position, I should say. That's on the Rabbit. 15-round start date tournament. It's a $10 entry, $50,000 prize pool. Uh, this is not meant to replace your home league. In fact, if you have a home league coming up or if your home league is finished, it's great practice. It's a bunch of fun. All you got to do is draft a team. No commitment in season. Let it ride. You can win some money. Uh, that's what I'm doing. Building up a portfolio over there. If you want to draft with me every night, use the promo code LAND. Download the app. I'll match your deposit up to $50. And then you're going to get my cheat sheet and my 2025 rookie report completely free.
Okay. So, the next player we're going to talk about is dealing with an injury. And I, I think in a way, this could be a blessing because I think Josh Downs could potentially slip down your draft boards, fall a round or two with the hamstring injury. So, I think he's still someone that we're going to target as long as he falls down the board. Let me just start this take by reminding you, and I, I'm trying not to laugh when I say this. Let me just remind you how awful the quarterback play was in Indianapolis. Are you guys ready for this? Specifically, Anthony Richardson. This is where Anthony Richardson ranked out of 39 quarterbacks with 250 dropbacks. You guys ready for this? 39 quarterbacks, 35th in PFF grade, 39th in completion percentage. Last, by the way, second to last was Spencer Rattler at 57% completion percentage. And Anthony was was 10% less than that. 47% not even 50% completion percentage. Uh, his NFL rating, bottom of the league. There is one area he was very high at, to be fair. We got to give him props. He was top three in turnover-worthy play percentage. So, I mean, at least he's doing something right. Now, despite the bad quarterback play, Josh Downs still set career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, points per game. And by the way, he played three less games than he did in his rookie season. He had a 17-game pace last year with the worst quarterback play in the NFL of 87 receptions, almost 1,000 yards, six touchdowns, and the wide receiver 17. From week three to 18, he had a higher target share than Nico Collins. He had a higher target share than DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, JSN, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, LaPorta, Brock Bowers, and Tee Higgins. I mean, this man was the wide receiver on the Colts last year, and you can get him in the eighth, ninth, 10th round. It might keep falling. His historical comps also suggest a great year three. I actually was able to pull up the closest year two comps for Josh Downs in the last eight years to see what players did in their year three season. Some great company here. Names like Keenan Allen, Drake London, Deebo Samuel. These are some of the comps for his year two season. According to Flock Fantasy range of outcome tool, only Cooper Kupp, Manningham, and McLaurin didn't improve their points per game from year two to year three. So, he's in very good company. And there's a new sheriff in town. Maybe, maybe it's Daniel Jones. We're not sure, but at least if Anthony Richardson isn't playing well, Daniel Jones is there as a big upgrade. Worst-case scenario, it's Anthony Richardson, and he did what he did last year. It was a great flex. Best-case scenario, he peppers, uh, you know, Downs gets peppered from Daniel Jones out of the slot, just like Daniel Jones did with Wan'Dale Robinson. You can see their stats from last year. Very similar usage. The only difference is Wan'Dale is actually a good player after the catch. Right? When Wan'Dale catches the ball, he falls on the ground. When Wan'Dale catches the ball, he's looking to pick up a first down. Uh, now, in the in six games last year without Richardson, we saw some exciting upside for one Josh Downs. On the left side is with Anthony Richardson. On the right side is without him. On the right side, you'll see seven targets per game, almost 15 fantasy points per game. That is what we are chasing this year. The ascension of a good player potentially being in a better situation. I mean, is he going to be top 12? I'm not sure, but I think top 24 is a very realistic outcome for him. And again, we just used a range of outcome tool, which you can get with the 2025 season pass. Check out the pinned comment with promo code LAND. It is just $34. The best deal the fantasy industry has ever seen. I mean, what are you going to spend $1.70 on from now until the end of the year? I mean, cuz that is what you're paying per week. The best deal in the industry.
Those are my breakouts. And unfortunately, I just recorded it in front of a couple people I'm about to be doing a big draft with in the Flock Fantasy Flock League draft. But guys, I appreciate you so much for being here. Do me a favor, hit the like button and show us some love. I left that to the end of the video, okay? So, show me some love here. Subscribe if you found any value. If you, if you watch this video and you're like, I knew all this already, don't subscribe because I haven't done my job, okay? But I appreciate you tuning in. Check out some of the videos on the account, and I'll see you guys in the next one. Nothing but love. Couple Bears highs, eh? Interesting.
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