Transcription
Everything. I'm testing. Testing. Is the sound okay? Because I, I'm using a new PC setup for the new PC. So the settings are reset, and I don't know whether the sound is fine or not. Okay.
Hi guys. This is the first stream in 2026. Um, I have a lot to share today, but let me finish this scan first. So, I think it was last Friday or this Monday. There are lots of stocks. Shrink. Oh, SNDK is the one. I didn't take it. Um, um, I'm going to talk about them uh later in the stream, I think. So, yeah, I missed the SNTK and it went up 40, oh, 40% in just three days. Oh my god. I believe some of you guys have have taken this one, right? I mean, SNDK and the memory names are super strong. Also, the the storage, the SSD, the drones. Those are precious metals as well. So, a lot of the names are still holding the weekly EMAs. The like the weekly EMAs are still in an uptrend. Light has has been amazing. It hasn't pulled back to the 50 since since May, man. It It hasn't even touched the 15. So many huge green candles yesterday. So many. And it's pretty rare that you have more than 30 or 40 names that are up more than 10% in one day. It's really rare. So it shows the market's breadth is broadening and things are looking better and better.
Open. Open. Looks really good on a weekly. But right now, the the EMAs are still like the nine is still under 21 and 21 is still under the 50. So I think it needs a few more days to let the EMAs to to cross back up and also it needs to digest the previous the selling pressure from the from from the previous base. Hopefully, it can go sideways for maybe for for a week. But Lumen is also looking so nice on the weekly too. Go back to the 21 weekly. It's a really decent spot. And the EMAs on the daily is not um it's not it like it's very extended to the upside. They're still pretty close, like converging. So normally EMAs confirm um when the EMAs converge, they there will be an expansion followup. BP AI weekly is also looking very nice. Very nice. Half is coming back. Yep. Yes. It's also looking nice on the weekly. I really wanted the market to go sideways for a little bit. This choppy GFS looks like it's turning around for the first time since 2023. Man, but this this is so choppy. What is this doing? What are these candles in November? For mobile eye, this this gap up. I'm not I I'm not going to trade it. I think it's still under the weekly 50. So it gets rejected several times before. So I don't think buying it near the weekly 50 is a is a good idea. It's worth watching though.
This is so rare. Like I went through all stocks in the in my screen and it still hasn't finished. Normally when you go like half of the of the screen, then the rest of them like they're only up one or or even down one up 1% or even they're red, but this time they're the last one appearing in the screen is still up five 5.6%. This is crazy. I'll try to answer the question after I finish the finish the scan or maybe later in the trading days when I have more more time to spare. Well, this this FIGR is is on my watch list uh all the time since I think on the 18th of December, I failed to catch it. Oh. Not seeing lots lots of good opportunities today. Most of the names are pretty extended in the short in the short run compared to the nine. Most of them are up uh going straight up in the past three days. Palente is is pretty weak compared to other tech leaders, especially the semis. Semi names, it's still under all the EMAs. But it's building a nice base though. Keep building higher lows in the weekly time frame. In in a in a larger time frame, it's looking a little bit like Nvidia. The Nvidia base back in 2023. So also a huge run after um pretty deep correction and then chopping it chopping around in the um at the very high of a at the mountain top and then looks worse in this area. But it managed to climb back and then build a nice VCP type of a setup. Maybe Pente is doing something similar. Maybe.
Oh, my love forians. Um, the reaction on the 21 free wicks found support at the 21. And it's pretty it's not tight, but but but I think I can manage risk if it breaks out today. I really think I really I had thought the solar names would be the solar would be the next leader, but it turns out they're not. Yeah. So, most of the names are just it's just extended in the in the short run. Cues are looking wonderful. Very very very classic VCP. All right. Don't think there's much to do today. So, uh, one main goal that I wanted to achieve this year is trade less. Yeah, trade less. Do less trades. It's really hard for me. I always want to trade, always want to enter new trades, but yeah. And the cryptos after getting a bounce into the uh weekly 9 and weekly 50 is now rejecting. It could actually be a short. Yeah, but I Yeah, but I think not today. Not today.
Oh, am I getting stopped out at the AEVA? Um, so I entered AEVA yesterday on this five-minute candle. I actually bought I have the first entry on the Um, where is it? The first entry is on the five-minute or the opening range breakout and then set the stop at the low of the five-minute candle. Is it? Yeah, I think so. I think I put it at this candle or I think it's this one before this uh huge green candle. So my stop is around 3%. And then stops me out after a decent run. But later today, it um found support and then consolidates pretty nicely in the five-minute or we can say in the 50-minute or one-minute chart and then I bought this this breakout on a one-minute or yeah, but the breakout on the one-minute. I personally think this is a uh it's a pretty good trade. And now it's fading. This probably going to stop me out.
And for QBTS, um this is not a standard entry. I think this this trade um I'm not doing it. Yeah, it's not a really good setup or a really good entry. But but on Friday, like everything starts going up, like going straight up, and I just saw so many strengths across different different sectors across the markets, and then I just took a took took a try after this um QBTS formed say an inside bar at 1 hour time. Wait, at 1 hour and then I bought at a breakout. But I think this is a little bit kind of a random trade that I took that I'm not very satisfied with. But a good a good thing is is um above the anchor VWAP from the previous swing highs. So it adds a little bit of like a bonus points to that trade. Personally, I I'm not Yeah, it's not a good trade. I think it's not a good trade.
And HUT, I just bought the opening range on this gap up. Very simple. And also on the weekly breakouts. It forms an inside bar on the weekly chart and then I bought the breakout of the previous candle. And Rock Lab is the is a pullback buy. Is the pullback to the anchor VWAP and the daily nine. I remember I put it at the one-minute one-minute breakout. So I put it at this candle right here and the stop is around 1.5%. Unfortunately, this um this works perfectly. And especially yesterday, I didn't expect it to push that much higher yesterday. But when I closed um closed my screen yesterday, it's only up 1%. I think it's around it's around here. And then I I just I just left the table, left the desk. And then when I check it this morning, and it said it was up 10%. Oh, it's a what? That's stopped out of AEVA. This was sad. But I do think AEVA would be a really potential potent potential stock. This stock has the has the potential to be the next leader. We really love the strong move um earlier earlier uh last year in the early last year and a huge base, six months. We're seven-month base. And now it's it's reclaiming all the weekly EMAs. Are you telling me that it's going is finding support? Am I stopped? Oh my god.
I'm actually looking for the longs on the on the crypto names and especially especially Every circle in the galaxy. Let's see. Nvidia is bouncing at the nine also near the end of the VWAP on the on the swing buy. And the space names are really really strong. ESTs would be one of the main stocks that I wanted to find an entry later this week or next week. Hopefully next week. Letting the EMAs to catch up. And then that will be it will be a pretty good looking base. Currently, the right side is a bit too loose. If it can tighten tighten up a bit, that will be perfect.
I personally think is my MSTR is it's getting oversold. Look, it's down 60% in half a year, but still under the under the 21. So, I'm going to be I'm going to be patient. If it can do one or two more days above the 9 EMA and also like the daily EMAs can be uh the 50 can be a little bit closer to the 150, then I I'll consider to to buy it. But right now, it is uh little bit too risky. Oh, if that um for this FRG, I think on Friday, it's possible to buy at the breakout of the previous candle at 42. But there's one thing that I uh that skipped this entry is the hourly EMA is still um trending down, and then the breakout level, which is around the 42, is very close to the hourly 50. So it lowers the um the probability that it it works out and then continues to going to on the upside. But I because as the as the stop is so tight, it's less than 2%. So I I do think it's a is a buyable buyable breakout. So if if A is a good break, I think this one is a is a B like is a fair one like you can much to to take it like Yeah.
And then on the Monday, this is a much better one compared to the Friday. The Friday one because this is it is a gap up and then is going straight up at the opening range highs, and you can manage risk very easily. If you put it at the second candle, it's only like 2.5% stop. And if you're buying it at the previous um swing high, which is this candle, then it is it's still under 2% at the stop is still less than 2%. So Monday is a much um much more friendly entry. Like whatever entry level you're using, you can manage risk pretty easily, and then you are above all the EMAs. Yes, I love the weekly open. Let's see how it consolidates um later this week. Is it going to reject and then keep going lower or just found support at the rising 21 and the rising 9? Michael STR is going higher. I really wanted to get rejected on the daily 21 and then consolidate near or or above the 21 for one or two days is is enough. I think then it is a is a much more viable one. Right now, it is trying to reclaim the hourly 150 and also a daily 21. I don't I don't personally like buying near those declining EMAs. So, let's see.
And these memory names are getting an ugly reversal. Um, my entry on QBTS is 27.773. Yes. So at this um inside bar breakout on the one-hour chart. Um, when is my interview with JLo? I don't know. Um, I believe this will be Q1 this year, I think.
So, I have one um I have one bad news like to share with you guys. So um I think some of you have may have observed that I uh traded pretty badly in December. So I have a 26% drawdown in December. So very unfortunately, I failed to achieve that uh the goal that I set in the uh in in early last year, which is uh to control the drawdown um within 20%. And then it's so unfortunately that didn't that failed this goal at the last month of the of 2025. So it's been pretty tough. Uh So after the Christmas break, that I refilled all the trades in December. So I I learned so many lessons and then I think it's it's a great time to like to to share with you. I will share some with you. Yeah, I think I will share it in the interview later like I did last year. I shared the the 35% drawdown uh last year and this year I'm also going to share the 26% drawdown in December, which is yeah, pretty tough mentally. And I did not get caught by the gap down, but I caught some I get caught by the gap ups, gap ups on my shorts. Uh but not but it's not a huge gap up. So I don't think it's the it's really matters that much. But the first I think the f the major reason that I the drawdown I can't uh I get is 26% drawdown is I trade too much and then I took too many random trades. Yeah, it's easier said than done. And I took um 70 74 trades in December and only nine of them are winning trades and then the rest 65 of them are losing trades. And out of the 74 trades, so 46% of them I I think it is um random trades. This I also don't know what I'm I'm doing at that moment of the time. Like it's not it isn't really worth buying at all. I don't know why I'm I'm trading like that. Like 46% of those trades are should be avoidable and only 20% of the trades are are the A trades. So they're they they are the really good trades, but um yeah, and the rest the 40 34% is the is the B trades that is like the failure trades that not much to take, but yeah, it's is it's fine. So I think the major reason lies at the uh at the at the C trades, the 46%. So nearly half of the trades are like is the random trades that is that could be easily avoidable. Uh, I believe it's like when I'm I care too much about my performance and I really and and I want to like if my shorts isn't isn't work or get stopped out, then I would really want to switch uh to take the long positions. And this mindset is pretty devastating and it just leads to overtrading. I end the year with uh 969%. Still an an incredible performance, but yeah, the 26% drawdown is is unacceptable unacceptable to me. Yeah, I really think I can do much better. But yeah, this like half of the trades in December are completely avoidable that I I should I shouldn't even consider taking them. Yes.
And then the second reason is um I'm a little bit too bearish at the December, especially at uh after 11th of December. So, a lot of the stocks are looking pretty bad like AMD, like losing all the EMAs, or maybe like Oaklo is is looking really bad. But I didn't take the shorts on on Oaklo. Yeah. So, some shorts are working, but the shorts that I took aren't working. And I think I took the profits. Uh I didn't take I didn't I didn't took the profits early. Let's see. For example, shorted Q on the 17th of December and shorted at the I mean the pullback to the 21 or the or the 50 and short the shorted the reversal, and then I got stopped out on Monday. So it just worked for one or two days and then it reverses back up. So I have a lots of trades that is that looks similar to this. Um, QBTS is another one. The QBTS I also shorted at the 17th of December and then I got stopped out on on Friday. Also, I think this trade is um I I consider this is an an A trade. Like I I think it's a good trade. I shorted at the resistance, but it didn't but just um didn't work. So in hindsight, if I just uh take take the profit more aggressively, maybe. Yeah. But but I wasn't at the screen when it's creeping down. So yeah, I don't know.
And there are lots of the random trades. Let me give you some examples. Um, for example, shorted the circle at the 16th of the 16th of um December when it pulls back to the nine and I shorted it and I don't know whether I think I shorted it at this candle or maybe this one, and it didn't work quite well on Yeah, it closed pretty strong on on on that day. And I would say this is a fair fair trade because it's it's still my entry is near the previous swing lows, like the previous previous lows of the of this of these base. Yeah, this one is the one. Yep. Oh, where is it? Oh, this one. Yeah. Bought I bought UU on the 23rd of December, which is the breakout of the previous candle high, 54. Yes, previous candle high, but actually UU is still under the 50 EMA. EMAs are still trending down. And I personally think it it should be a short rather than a long on the one-hour chart. It's uh it's not that it's not that tight. I would say that this is this small flag is is not that tight. And on the daily, it's still under all the EMAs. Although it's trying to break out and form an inside day. But um if the inside is formed above the 50, I would say it would be a much better entry. But it's it's from under the under the 50. And then I just think it's I shouldn't I shouldn't I shouldn't take it. I saw one more. This one I think I did it. On the stream is I shorted uh PL at this um EP day, the earnings. I remember at this day, everything is um is red. As only PL is going up, and then I think uh I should short this PL near near the previous swing highs, near the resistance area. This is not an ordinary trade that I would take, but I just I don't know. I just I just took it. So, please please avoid the random random shits.
And also when you when you have when when you did too many random trades and then you got stopped out, and you slowly drained away your your mental capital and your confidence. So it eventually eventually um eventually leads to leads to this SNDK that I that I missed that failed to take this opportunity on Friday. So on Friday, when I saw this NDK is trying to break out today, I don't I don't have that like determination or the right condition to trade and I hesitate. Yes, SNTK said it's an A+ on Friday. A+ I don't include pre-market data. Yeah, I I very very rarely look at pre-markets except when I refer to my GME trades back in 2021 because my entry is is at the pre-market and I I couldn't find my entry price on the on my daily candle. So back in 2021, I think my entry on GME is at 50 something or 130 something. It's even higher than the price shown on the daily chart. So I have to open the pre-market chart.
And also talking about um I become like too bearish on on mid-December. I figure out one of the major reasons that is I focus too much on the small caps or the micro caps because I built this track this watch list for the small and micro caps, and there are lots of them are are reversing and looking very ugly back in mid-December or even before. But I just think that like most small caps and micro caps are the [ __ ] codes like they're doomed to go to zero. So it's it's it's not meaningful to focus too much on the small and micro caps to determine um the overall market strength or the market directions. And I think I focused too much on the small and micro caps back in the mid mid-December, and it which contributes to to the overtrading also.
Um, no swing trading school at the moment. I don't I think I'm I still have a lot of room of room for improvement. So I I'm not eligible to be a to be a teacher for the free watch lists. Yes, I mainly categorize them by the EMA strength. So for the leading watch list, I want the stock to be up to be above the 50 and also the 50 is above the 150 at least. And then for the lagging one, the lagging one would be to stop under the 50 and the 50 is under the 150. And anything in between would be the mediocre. But I think this is not a like you you can it's not a straight through. If you really think that stock is like bearish or you you are not going to trade it on the upside and and then you can put it at the lagging no matter what. Or if you want to use the 21 and the 50 to to determine uh which one is staging and which one is the lead is leading is yeah, it's also okay. But personally, I just use the 50 and 150.
Rifian is at the fourth w at the 21. The I will be on this thing no matter what. If it closes above 21 today and on the weekly, it's just started this uptrend. It just started this uptrend for for a few weeks. I think it has a lot of lots more potential to go given the market is strong. Micro strategy is turning is turning red. So actually, I don't know whether the crypto would it continues to go further down. It's looking a little bit similar to early 2022. Fails the weekly 50 and then pushes up to the daily nine. Sorry, weekly nine. Yes.
Um, in December, I didn't increase my position size. I actually reduced my position size along all the way along the drawdowns, but I just took too many random trades. And also I I think I Oh, yeah. I faced some I encountered some slippage when trading the smaller caps like CSIQ. Yeah, bought the breakouts on Monday. I bought it twice, I think. Yes, I bought it at the first five-minute candle and I got stopped out and I re-bought it at this at this this area and then also got stopped out the next day. And these two trades have faced some slippage and I took a larger loss than I originally planned. I really want to see the quantum names to to push higher, push above the 50-day. Oh, briefly in um I don't have a specific percentage, but I think 2% 2% would be a a comfortable level for uh mentally like mentally comfortable level. So if I'm using 0.5% risk per trade, then that means that uh I could afford like taking four losing losing trades in in a row in one day. So I think this year I also try to reduce my risk per trade a little bit like um to 4% or even to 3% because given that I'm a super super overtrader, so I think I need to reduce the risk per trade to reduce the risk of consecutive losing trades in the in the drawdown. So if I'm if I'm trading less actively, then I only maybe take 10 trades per month, then I can I can risk more. Maybe I can risk one or two percent for each trade. But I'm not. So I think I I would I would risk less this year um position size to calculate the position size. So, um, for example, if you have a $10,000 account and you're risking 0.5% of your account, which is $500. So, this is your um your dollar amount risk. And let's say if you're buying Rivian now and your stop is 4.3%. Then you're you need to um divide it um and you need to divide your dollar amount to risk, which is 500 divided the stop. The stop is 4 4.1%. So 0.041. So oops, no, for this. Am I doing anything wrong? Oh, it it should be 50. Sorry for calculation. So it's point. So it's so your position size would be $1,200. So just divide your dollar amount risk by the stop.
I took I took more than 1,000 trades last year. It's around I think it's around 1,100. Yeah, that's why I think I traded I traded too much. I am going to reduce the number of trades this year. Hopefully hopefully below maybe 800 trades because I I'm pretty sure that I just I just I just can't sit tight. I 500 is the ideal number, but it's it doesn't make sense to me. Maybe gradually like this year will be 800 and the next year will be 500, but gradually reducing the frequency.
Put this rejecting at the weekly nine and also the 50 daily. So, Nvidia is chopping around at this 190 level. Oh my god. Sorry. I I was muted again. I'm like, "Yeah, I'm just for Dave is I think it's it looks pretty good, especially on the weekly, the the large the long base going up step by step. And I prefer it to go sideways for a little bit. Maybe an inside week for the next week because I don't I don't like the previous red candle red candles. These red candles. I think it it needs some time to digest the selling pressure. So maybe in this in this one or two weeks I think would be will be better. Right now, it is a little bit too too loose in my opinion, and also I think there's a high chance that it gets rejected right at this this levels. So yes, I think this is the end of the stream today. Um, yes. And I'm I'm now fully reset and ready to make another great performance this year and just do less random trades. This is the main target. So I hopefully at the end of 2026, when I look back at this stream, I would I would be pleased or satisfied that I at least took less random trades. Okay, just trade. And yes, I'm joining the USIC this year as well. Yes. So this is the third year I I'm participating in USIC. So, see you in the next stream.