Transcription
You are way too low on these five players for fantasy football this year. Whether it's Underdog, whether it's other experts, whether it's your personal rankings, these are players that we have ranked much higher than everybody else. And y'all are just too low on some of these guys.
I want to start with Devonte Adams. Devonte Adams right now, if you're looking at Flock Expert Consensus, so the other guys on the site, wide receiver 24. Okay, so I ranked as a low-end wide receiver two. On Underdog, he's going as the wide receiver 26. So he's ranked as a high-end wide receiver three. This is the guy that last year was the wide receiver nine in fantasy football. And what changed about Devonte Adams' situation? What changed? Exactly what has changed? Who did they bring in from a pass-catching standpoint that's going to challenge Devonte Adams for targets or red zone receptions or things like that? Well, really the only thing they did was draft Max Claire, which is not going to affect Devonte Adams' production.
I want to start there. You've already seen in Devonte Adams' profile the regression from a volume standpoint and from an efficiency standpoint as well. You've already seen that over the last two, three years. You've seen again his snap percentage went from 92% to 72% last year. His targets dropped to a game and went under 10 targets per game for the first time since 2017. Receptions per game dropped under five for the first time since 2016. Uh, and you saw his yards per out run drop under two for the first time since 2016 again. So again, the regression across the board for Devonte Adams because he is 33 and a half years old has already started to happen and started to show up.
The problem that I think people are, or I think my problem with other people evaluating Devonte Adams is, of course, they're baking in touchdown regression, which when you're talking about a guy who played 14 games last year and scored 14 touchdowns, scored one touchdown per game. Yeah, regression is going to be very, very likely in that scenario. It's very unlikely he matches that touchdown total on a per-game basis this year. That is true. This is still a guy that was the wide receiver nine. And if you bake in any sort of touchdown regression, he's still on track to finish higher than he would, than people have him ranked. He's still on track to finish higher than the wide receiver 26, for example, on Underdog.
Again, this is a guy last year where the targets were 18th in the league. He only had 114 targets last year. This Devonte Adams target share was 14th. Target rate was still seventh. But what you're looking at again for Devonte Adams and how he scores his points, again, those 14 touchdowns were huge. The red zone target share for Devonte Adams was 35.6%. That was fourth among all wide receivers in the red zone targets. There were 32 of them. He had 13 red zone receptions. That was second among all wide receivers. That is how Devonte Adams is getting his points, right? And so, you know, people want to point to, you know, okay, yes, there's going to be very obvious touchdown regression for the Vegas lines for Devonte Adams this year for touchdowns. Nine and a half touchdowns compared to again, 14 last year. So, you're talking about they're predicting about four touchdowns regression. I think that's probably fair given that Devonte Adams probably going to miss a game or two across the course of a season just because he is 34 years old. I think four touchdown regression is a pretty fair regression estimate, right?
Nine and a half touchdowns as the over/under for Devonte Adams for touch. That's still tied for first in the NFL for touchdowns. Like, that is still tied for the highest mark that anybody has, any wide receiver has for Vegas lines this year. And his yardage, in terms of his yardage for his Vegas line, is about the same as it was last year. Again, last year he was not blowing everybody away with his yardage. I mean, this is a guy last year that on a, you know, yard standpoint, scored, he had 789 yards last year. 789. That's extremely pedestrian for a guy that finishes again, a wide receiver one. So, again, I think people are just taking the touchdown regression to a new extreme.
If you bake in that he would have scored four less touchdowns last year, he would have scored 14.2 PPR points per game. And that would have been the wide receiver 15 or 16 in points per game on the year, right? So that's with four touchdown regression. I honestly think that him regressing four touchdowns and having about nine or 10 touchdowns this year, I honestly think that's close to his floor. That's my opinion. And that does put him at wide receiver 15 or 16 again on a points-per-game basis on the year. And that's where we have him ranked. We have him ranked at about the wide receiver 16. We think he's going to be a mid-wide receiver two, not a low-end wide receiver two or high-end wide receiver three.
Again, you've already seen the regression pretty much everywhere. And touchdown regression is going to come. But at wide receiver 24 and wide receiver 26 prices, you're buying him at his floor. You're essentially betting that he's going to, if he would have had the same yardage as he had last year, same receptions, things like that, and only had touchdown regression. I don't see him regressing in other parts of his game. I think that's already happened. You're talking about a three to four additional touchdowns in regression on top of the four that I'm already calculating in. So, you're talking about going from 14 to like six, 14 to like five, 14 to seven. And I think he scores more touchdowns. Again, a guy that last year you didn't really bring in any consistent red zone threats and was fourth in red zone target share and second in red zone targets. I mean, this is a guy that when you're talking about where you're drafting him, you're drafting him as one of the better wide receivers in the NFL last year, as one of the more experienced wide receivers in the NFL, right? And you're drafting him around other guys that have just as many question marks and some guys that have never even proven themselves. So, I think you're drafting Devonte Adams when you're drafting him at low-end wide receiver two, high-end wide receiver three prices at his floor. And I think if you draft him, he's very likely to return on that price with a ceiling, of course, to be a high-end wide receiver two and as we saw last year, a low-end wide receiver one if, you know, one of the better wide receivers in the league, one of the better red zone wide receivers in the league, continues to score touchdowns, which I don't think is that people think that's an outlandish bet. I don't. And that's why I have Devonte Adams, and we both have Devonte Adams much higher than everybody else.
We've been a big fan of Drake London since really the beginning of 2024 before his big breakout. We were expecting that to happen. It did. And then last year he was banged up for a good chunk of the season. Ended up missing like five total games and was injured when he was on the field for some of the 12 games that he played. But it didn't really actually end up mattering when he was on the field on a points-per-game basis. Even while he was banged up, he still produced at the same level that he did in 2024. 16.8 points per game last year in 2025 compared to 16 and a half points per game in 2024. So, actually a little bit of a jump there, which was decently impressive considering the fact that they were playing the quarterback carousel game again last year with Michael Penix and Kirk Cousins. Penix got injured. Cousins was, you know, old Kirk Cousins at this point.
But really, when you look at it at face value with our ranking, our positional ranking of Drake London compared to expert consensus and Underdog, like we have London at wide receiver six versus expert consensus having him at wide receiver seven on the site and Underdog having him also at wide receiver seven. The difference is the tier, the conversation of what tier he should be in. And really the difference what we've seen and has been established is the gap between wide receiver six and the gap between wide receiver seven is about a half round. And you are talking about a significant teardrop there where Avery and I are basically saying that Drake London should be in this conversation of the guys that are going firmly at the one-two turn in your redraft leagues. And when you look at his wide receiver seven ranking and the company that he's in, when you put him in that category, which is lower than we like to put him in, he's more in the conversation of Kenneth Walker, Brock Bowers, Derrick Henry, Saquon, Chase Brown, AJ Brown, those types of guys going like mid to late second round. Whereas I think that London should be spoken of in the exact same breath as Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb. Both of those guys have shown some past injury concerns with situations that are a little bit iffy. CeeDee Lamb obviously being in the best situation, but it's questionable because he's competing with targets with George Pickens. Justin Jefferson has a situational question every single year when it comes to his quarterback play. And then you've got some floor questions with the running backs there, J.K. Dobbins and Antonio Gibson. Dobbins and Gibson both being technically unproven and Gibson in a terrible situation, right? Drake London and the fact that he's not necessarily viewed in the same conversation as those guys and isn't always going in that same range. I think merits him being one of the better selections in the mid-second round if he falls in that range for you.
They are bringing on Kellen Moore as the new play caller there, which is, um, I would say a TBD on like, is that an upgrade from a fantasy perspective for everyone in that offense when you make the switch from Zac Robinson to Kellen Moore as an overall play caller in an NFL coach? Like, I think that Kellen Moore is more experienced and I think he's better there. But talk, let's talk about London's role. I don't think his role is going to change regardless of who the play caller is there, whether it's Robinson or Kellen Moore year-over-year. Drake London is the go-to red zone target option there. He was, he got 36.6% of the red zone targets in that offense, which was third among wide receivers in the NFL. And if you're worried about the, you know, quarterback switch-up, whether it's going to be Tua or Penix, honestly, both of those guys are very similar in the way that they play football, and it's not just because they're both lefties, right? When you look at Penix and when he was on the field versus when he was not on the field, the splits for Drake London, you're looking about about a 5 and a half point per game production gap there, which is pretty significant. 13.9 points per game with no Penix and 19 and a half points per game when Penix was on the field. Ideally, just for like peace of mind, I would love to see Michael Penix be the starter. He is looking to be ready for training camp coming off of that ACL, which is very promising. But in the off chance that Tua ends up being the starting quarterback week one, I don't think it's a death sentence for Drake London's potential ceiling there. I think we could see the same type of ceiling that we've seen with Penix in this offense historically because again, we've seen Tua supporting multiple productive receiving assets in Miami's offense year over year with Waddle and Tyreek Hill before kind of the wheels fell off with that entire offense and the play calling etc.
Another concern that people are going to have is Kyle Pitts and his late-season breakout last year. We've alluded to this before and we talked about it in our tight end rankings video that we did, but there's a 10-point per game drop in production for Kyle Pitts when Drake London is and is not on the field. I don't think Kyle Pitts takes away from London. I think London ultimately takes away from Pitts because he is the primary receiving option in that offense. This is the hierarchy of receiving options there. It's Drake London, it's Bijan Robinson, and then it's Kyle Pitts. And that's not going to change with Kellen Moore. Kellen Moore will want to integrate his tight ends in that offense, but that's not going to be at the expense of his best playmakers and his best touchdown targets, his best red zone targets, and Drake London is the number one option and the best touchdown upside contested catch guy in that offense, hands down.
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All right, I want to talk about Alec Pierce. And yes, we're Colts fans, and I don't want it to make it like, okay, we're just picking Alec Pierce because we're Colts fans, because that's truly not it. But last year, Alec Pierce was 43rd in the NFL in targets. He had 84 targets, which by the way, he only caught 47 of those. This guy had 47 catches last year on an NFL team. Okay, he had an 18% target share and target rate was 18.3%, which is 68th in the NFL. So the volume wasn't really there. And last year on that very limited opportunity, he still had 12.2 points per game, which was 27th in the NFL. He was a high-end wide receiver three last year in fantasy leagues, right? And that was with Tyler Warren during his rookie year. That was with Michael Pittman, who again, is now gone, went to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and leaves behind an average of a hundred something targets a year that are going to go to some of these other players on the Colts offense.
And look, I'm not even saying that Alec Pierce is going to get the majority of those, or I'm actually really not even saying that Alec Pierce is going to see like a ginormous increase in targets because I still think it's likely that Alec Pierce is getting, you know, six, seven targets a game, not eight to nine targets a game like some people want to say. But he's ranked right now wide receiver 35. So just at the surface here, we're ranking Alec Pierce at wide receiver 35. He finished higher than that last year and he has less competition. Like he's the wide receiver one in his offense now. And some of that's like, you know, okay, it could be vacated volume fallacy, but they were throwing the ball, playing with Daniel Jones, and Daniel Jones was supporting multiple high-end fantasy assets last year. Alec Pierce was good while Michael Pittman was good last year, while Tyler Warren was decent. And now you take one of those guys out of the equation and just at the surface, we're projecting him to score less. But there's actually a pretty good argument here that I want you to hear in terms of how he scores his points, why I think he could be more productive this year in 2026.
Again, you've got the, he's a wide receiver 38 on Underdog. That's 11 spots lower than he finished last year, and he just got a huge contract. So the team investment went up. They let Michael Pittman walk. They clearly believe in Alec Pierce a lot, right? There's a lot of team investment and they let their other alpha wide receiver go. That should speak volumes to you. But when you're talking about his Vegas lines, it's about the same as it was last year, to be honest with you, which I'm going to take the over on both of these. 950 yards and five touchdowns. Do I think he's a 1,200-yard guy? No. But I think he's probably going to do 1,000-plus like he did last year. I think he's closer to 1100 than he is 950 to 900. Five touchdowns is what he did last year. I would bet that that's about right. Maybe he scores a couple more touchdowns. But again, he had 47 receptions last year. He caught 47 of his 84 targets. Any way you look at this, more targets, which Alec Pierce, I would expect him to get. You know, he had 84 targets last year. I think he's going to get 110 targets this year. And when you're talking about how that's going to translate to PPR points, well, in points per reception leagues, two things are going to happen with Alec Pierce this year, I think.
Number one, Alec Pierce is not going to have the ADOT that he had last year. He was third in the NFL last year in air yards. He was first in air yard share, second in ADOT, 19 yards per target. That's insane. And third in deep targets. So, you saw how he was used. And part of the reason he was used like that is because you had Josh Downs when he was on the field for the slot targets. You had Tyler Warren working the middle of the field. And you had Michael Pittman as kind of the guy that sat at the sticks and had all, I mean, Michael Pittman was eating last year in this offense. And so what they needed Alec Pierce to do last year was be that deep threat, be that field stretcher, be that big play guy. And he connected on that a lot. Now, again, the touchdowns last year, I think he scored six touchdowns last year. Like that's not something that's like, okay, there's going to be obvious regression from a big play touchdown standpoint. I don't think that's the argument that anybody wants to make here because again, that's a 12.8% touchdown rate. That's not that high. But if his targets go up, his receptions are going to go up. And if his average depth of target goes down, his catchable target rate will also increase. And that will increase his receptions. So because of that, 47 receptions this year on 84 targets. What do I think that looks like this next year? I think it could be like 105 targets and you're looking at like 65, 70 receptions. And when that happens, you're not only getting the same production from a yardage standpoint, which again, Vegas has him repeating the yardage, has him repeating the touchdowns. You're not only getting that, you know, maintaining that production or potentially even higher because there is more opportunity in that Colts offense, but you're getting those extra points per reception and how he gets his points this year. He's going to get more receptions this year and you're going to see a production increase in that regard.
Now, in half PPR leagues, obviously, some of that impact is going to be diminished. And in, you know, even standard leagues, you're not even having this discussion necessarily. But I think that Alec Pierce, just on a yardage and touchdown standpoint, like I think he's doing what he did last year, if not improving on that in what is a better situation from a volume standpoint and for a guy that didn't really get great volume last year. Plus, again, the schematic change coupled with the fact that he is going to get more volume, will allow for more PPR points, and will, in my opinion, raise his overall production ceiling. And again, the nice thing about drafting Alec Pierce is like, you know, if he finished at, you know, 12.2 points per game last year, 27th in the NFL in points per game among wide receivers. If he were being drafted there right now, you can make the argument that there's not a ton of room for Alec Pierce. Like, what's Alec Pierce's realistic ceiling in fantasy football? Probably somewhere in the wide receiver 15 to 20 range, right? You know, it's a little bit far-fetched to draft him like in the mid-20s if his ceiling is not much higher than that. You're probably drafting him closer to his ceiling than his floor. But at wide receiver 35, I mean, I think that's probably his floor. He's the wide receiver one in an offense that was scoring a lot of points when Daniel Jones was healthy last year. And inherently, I think he's going to get more of the love there. I think he's going to get more of the pie, a bigger piece of the pie. And again, I think all of that translates to him getting more catches this year. And it's all about where, again, it's all about where he's ranked right now as the wide, again, wide receiver 38 on Underdog. Like, I mean, look, I'm as conservative as I can possibly be with the Indianapolis Colts, but wide receiver 38 prices for Alec Pierce. Like, I wouldn't even say I was really looking forward to being super high on Alec Pierce this year, and I think that's a fantastic price. I have him ranked at wide receiver 29. We have him, you know, kind of in a tier behind like J.J. McCarthy, Rome Odunze, Marvin Harrison Jr. And so I've got him about six, seven spots ahead of everybody else. And I think that this is going to be, I still think you can draft him where I have him ranked and him still return on that value. But at wide receiver 35 to 38 prices where he's being drafted on other platforms, in my opinion, that's an absolute no-brainer. I think he's a super safe and high-floor pick with high ceiling when you get down to, like, the seventh, eighth round of your fantasy football drafts, depending on where Alec Pierce is going on your platform.
I think Chris Olave is incredibly safe as well, and I don't think he's getting enough respect after a breakout season for him last year where he averaged the same points per game as Drake London and his best season ever. The same amount of points per game as Drake London. And yet you're looking at upwards of a full round to a round and a half gap between Drake London and where Chris Olave is being drafted. And we just talked about how much we love Drake London, where we think he should be drafted. Chris Olave, when you're looking at Flock consensus, market consensus, Underdog consensus, dude is going in like the mid-third round, and we have him ranked in like the mid to late second. We have him ranked at wide receiver nine compared to Flock and Underdog having him ranked at wide receiver 12 and 13 respectively.
I mean, you saw a notable production jump when Derek Carr became the starting quarterback last season and Chris Olave and his production across the board. And it wasn't just like touchdown volatility. It wasn't just a massive jump in touchdown production. He went from like a half receiving touchdown a game to 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game. So like there was a marginal jump up there, but look at everything else. Jump up in targets overall, jump up in receptions, jump up in receiving yards per game, jump up in yards per route run, yards per target, routes overall routes run. Derek Carr has opened up the floodgates for this offense to be explosive and be a classic, honestly, a classic Kellen Moore offense where he likes to sling the ball and throw it like crazy to a fault. This is an absolute dream for Chris Olave and people who invest in him heading into this season. And I'll tell you exactly why there's such a significant price gap between where he's going and a guy like London or even a guy like AJ Brown, who Flock consensus has AJ Brown ranked well over where Chris Olave is currently going, like a tier above. I think he should absolutely be in the same conversation at least. We have him actually ranked well ahead of AJ Brown this season.
But with Olave, the biggest concern that people have with him is the offseason blood clots and the entrance of Jordan Addison into that offense. I'm just telling you right now, you can throw away the concerns about Jordan Addison taking away from Chris Olave in that offense because Derek Carr absolutely can support both receiving assets. And by the way, Chris Olave is still the number one option regardless. If Carr ultimately cannot support both productive receiving assets in that offense in 2026, it's not going to be at the expense of Chris Olave. It will be at the expense of Jordan Addison, who is a rookie wide receiver coming off of a hamstring injury that he's been battling all offseason. And we'll see if he's even a full go for training camp.
When you look at Kellen Moore's offenses historically, look at the total passing attempts that you see where he ranks every single year. His four years as the OC play caller in Dallas, 10th, second, sixth, and 19th the year that Dak Prescott missed like more than half the season. Third in passing attempts in 2023 with Justin Herbert. 32nd with Philly in 2024. That shows you how rough Jalen Hurts is. And then sixth with New Orleans and Derek Carr/Spencer Rattler in 2025. We know what type of offense Kellen Moore wants to operate. And it is an air raid offense getting the ball to his best playmaker and Chris Olave, who took a massive step up last season. And if you're worried about the blood clot concerns, he's scheduled to get off the blood thinners like right now. Like as of yesterday when we're recording this on June 30th, he was supposed to get off the blood thinners yesterday, June 29th, so that he's ready to be a full go for training camp. Unrestricted football activities, he's looking to be cleared for unrestricted football activities. And again, by training camp, we're expecting that to happen. So I wouldn't worry too much about that if that is your biggest concern. He played a full season last year, so don't talk to me about the concussions again. It's kind of a freak thing.
When you look at Chris Olave's floor when he doesn't produce from a touchdown perspective, because I mean look at his red zone target share, 31.9%, fifth among wide receivers. He is a red zone touchdown go-to in that offense. When he doesn't score touchdowns, look at his game log. 12.4, 11.4, 15.7, 12.9, 15.8, 14.8, 16.6. Those are the weeks that he didn't score a touchdown. That floor is unbelievable, and it's because his target volume is so consistent because he's such a reliable option for Derek Carr in that offense, and he's going to continue to be that this season.
The last guy that we're going to have on this list is a guy coming off an Achilles injury, and George Kittle. And why would we ever want to, you know, advocate for a guy coming off an Achilles at 32 years old now? I think is how old he is. Yeah, 32 years old. It's because I don't know if you guys have heard yet, but George Kittle literally has said himself that he's expected to be ready to go for week one. And we'll put up a clip of him working out on the screen here, but I mean, at Tight End U, dude was doing pretty much all of the drills. He looks like he's not hindered whatsoever from this Achilles injury. His rehab has been incredible. And again, I think we've seen not just in the NFL, but across all different sports right now, the recovery timetable for Achilles has been shrunk. It's like well under a full calendar year. I mean, he ruptured his Achilles in January, and he's going to be a go in September, which is incredible.
And I will say, like, there's a relevant concern that's like, oh, well, his mobility isn't going to be the same. He's not going to be as effective coming off this injury as he was prior. And that's a relevant concern. But at tight end nine prices, which is where Flock and Underdog have him going, I'll take a shot on that any day because the guys that are going in that range are essentially replacement level, and George Kittle is offering like dang near elite-level tight end production opportunity or upside in that range. We have him ranked a tier higher at tight end eight. When you look at his historical consistent production, man, he ranges anywhere from like 13 to 16 points per game every single season when he's on the field. And if you are worried about the Achilles injury impacting Kittle's productivity, I don't think it's actually going to hurt him that much because he wins with physicality, not necessarily elite separation. His target separation was 28th among tight ends last season. And yet he was third in yards per route run and third in contested catch rate. And obviously, his points per game were incredible, the tight end three at 14.7 points per game. So again, he is one of the most physical, smashmouth tight ends that you're ever going to see. It's why everybody loves him so much. I don't think he has to be a lights-out route runner and as explosive as he was prior because it's not like he was the most explosive route runner and elusive route runner of all time before. Like, he's still a tight end, he's still built like a tight end. He's just going to bully you and out-physical you regardless.
And oh, by the way, have you taken a look at the Niners' receiving corps? Have you? Go ahead and take a look. Mike Evans, who's coming off of multiple injuries last season. He's just as old and washed up as Kittle is. Ricky Pearsall can't stay healthy. Deebo Samuel, the biggest reach I've ever seen in the draft ever, and he's more expected to be like a run-blocking type of guy. Beyond that, it's Demarcus Robinson, Jauan Jennings, Jacob Cowen, Christian Kirk. I mean, you tell me who's going to be the top receiving option in that offense beyond like CMC. It honestly is probably going to be CMC, but George Kittle has been and probably will continue to be the top go-to option for Brock Purdy as long as he's healthy, and he's going to be ready to go week one. I'm telling you right now, and it's not me telling you, actually, it's George Kittle and their front office telling you as well. He's going to be a go.
So again, we're higher on these players. We think you should be too. Hopefully, we make good cases for them. Drop a like if you enjoy the content. And if you're subscribed, if you play fantasy football, we're going to have content for you right now all the way through draft season and through the season to help you win your fantasy football leagues. This is the place to be. Appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching. We got more content coming soon.