Transcription
我們看到網路上有各式各樣的新聞。有人跟你說荷姆茲海峽被封鎖了，什麼原油要漲到120美元，或者明天開盤股市要跌了，現在趕緊抄底買加密貨幣。我們聽到了很多。我個人覺得這些都是雜訊。作為一個交易者，我們需要看透這些雜訊，不管他是散布恐慌，或者是告訴你，是百年一遇的交易機會。重點是，我們要用系統化來做決策。
最重要的一點，我想現在有很多朋友都很擔心，因為很快明天就要開盤了。不管你在哪個國家和地區，如果你手上持有風險資產，我們看有幾類人。你已經滿倉了，比如說你持有跟AI和微軟相關的股票，那麼我們這個時候，是不是要提前賣出？或者是你手上已經，按照我們的Newsletter說的，你構建了三層防禦，你的底層，我們的防禦層，然後還有避險層。那麼我們要怎麼做？如果你持有原油要不要平倉？如果你持有VIX的相關資產，怎麼做？那第三個，就是手上有現金，你手上現在拿著Cash。
我們再看一下究竟發生了什麼。我們把這個時間線，完整的推理出來。我們不用講那些八卦新聞，或者怎麼樣。我們重點是要看證據，究竟發生了什麼樣的證據。那麼第二，我們要進行一個簡化的貝葉斯更新。因為如果你們看到我上週，給大家發的Newsletter電子報，我們看到上週的話是給大家了。我們需要用新的訊息，去更新一下這四個劇本。我們更新完以後，它的機率有沒有發生改變？這個世界上，是沒有一個可以確定的事情。所以我們需要用這種貝葉斯的方法，來不斷的更新我們的機率。
那麼更重要一點就是，我知道大家很關心荷姆茲這個海峽，以及Crude Oil (原油) 未來可能會出現什麼樣的波動。那麼對於我們而言，有沒有交易的機會？同時，我把三層防禦的陣型跟大家說一下，以後不管你遇到什麼樣的情況，我們可以按照這種方法，去重新做一遍。
那麼最重要的一點，這也是大家最關心的，我們週一開盤有可能會出現什麼情景，以及我個人的一些決策。今天也跟幾位朋友聊了一下，我覺得會出現兩種極端的情況。第一種就是你變得極度恐慌，那現在跟伊朗之間的戰爭，會不會擴大？影響到美國原油的上漲？會不會造成通膨？美國的經濟崩潰？第二個是極度的貪婪。Right，有人跟你說，原油要漲到120了。我們看到週末原油的價格要漲，怎麼怎麼怎麼。他們說的這些東西是沒有證據的。
那我們今天先要來看一下，有沒有證據證明原油可以漲到多少。無論你是因為這兩種恐慌的情緒，人類的本能去做出什麼，你都很容易被市場反殺。而我自己，我之前也犯過這樣的錯誤。首先第一就是看著新聞標題做交易。我給大家一個建議，如果你想在這次危機中賺錢，你最好是一天看一次新聞。因為你每天去看社群媒體上，有無數的這種新聞，今天告訴你封鎖了，明天解禁了，後天又反彈了，大後天又是怎樣。你會一直被這些標題牽著鼻子走，你很難做出這種，就是這種Critical Thinking (批判性思考) 的判斷。
那麼第二，試圖去預測政治領袖，像川普，比如說我們看到川普下一波會怎麼做？中國跟什麼俄羅斯，它是不是會調停？那麼伊朗，現在又誰當了他們的領袖了？Right，所以試圖在預測這些。但這一些跟我們的交易，我們今天來這個直播間的朋友，那有些可能是要看一些八卦，但是更多了，我們是想賺錢。Right，所以在我們這個時候，最容易犯的就是用情緒去下市價單。明天一開盤你看到Crude Oil一下漲了，比如說8%或者是10%，那你趕緊去這樣追一把。尤其你上了槓桿，很容易在這時就會被Squeeze (軋空) 掉。所以造成了一個結果，你會在很高的價格去追。比如說開盤一個原來在這裡，現在一個跳，跳到比如說85塊或者更高的位置，那麼你在這裡買入，隨即它一下又跌回這個75塊，那麼你在這裡就會被停損了。
所以在金融市場，我們首先要避免的是什麼？爆倉。第二個避免的是，你去被迫賣在一個最差的價格。比如說如果你看了我去年的影片，很早的時候我們去買了白銀，那麼現在即使白銀出現一些波動，那之前最高是120，又會掉回到80，那麼你至少還有一些處理的空間。但你最不想的就是，比如說你在100塊的時候，那些媒體一直在叫，他們未來會漲到300，你追進去買了。Right，那其實我們已經平倉了。你買進去以後，它一下跌到80，你被迫賣了一個最低的價格，然後結果反盈又往上漲。
接下來我們去看一下究竟發生了什麼。這些都是我截止到目前美西時間3月1號可以得到的一些時間線，它究竟發生了什麼。我們看到總共發生了幾件事。首先，在美西時間是晚上10點鐘左右，美方有重大的一個作戰，啟動對伊朗造成的空襲，導彈，飛彈還有跟以色列一起。OK，然後我們看到在2月28日，也就是昨天白天到夜間，那麼伊朗他的最高領袖已經遭這個斬首行動打擊了，那直接就是官方都宣布了。然後他報復了，很多以色列和美國的基地，比如說在巴林，在沙烏地阿拉伯，呃好像不是在沙烏地阿拉伯，在卡達或者什麼，去進行了一輪報復。
那麼我們看到在這個週末，同時發生了幾件什麼樣的事。一些航運的，比如說你是這個油輪戰爭的險，現在給你保險公司說我們先取消了，或者是加價。那這個是，我可以得到這種證據鏈的同時，船隻現在開始掉頭，荷姆茲海峽的通行風險在上升。那麼我說的這一些是有邏輯的。那比如說我們大家看一下現在這張圖，這是目前荷姆茲海峽的航運圖。那你們可以看一下我置頂的留言，我把這網址也發給大家了。我們看一下，非常明顯，現在正荷姆茲海峽就是這一帶。那這一邊是哪裡？是 Iran Right。這編應該是UAE (阿聯酋)。那我們看到這裡在杜拜附近，有大量的 Vessel (船隻) 現在停在這裡 Right。通過的很少。這些是，尤其是我們看到在這裡聚集了很多 Right。這裡聚集了很多，他們在原地待命。為什麼？因為你去航行的話，他們要去向保險公司購買保險。那麼現在保險公司說，你們如果再到這裡的話，那麼我就取消保費，取消保險，或者你們再增加什麼20倍的保費。那麼所以這些有航運在這裡，都停在這裡。所以事實上，荷姆茲海峽現在已經可以說受到了阻礙。
那麼接下來，我給大家看4個非常重要的證據。這個證據證明了市場，不管是Crude Oil也好，還是什麼也好，它需要重新的定價。第一，我們看到美方的敘事，我們看到川普的發言，他要持續轟炸差不多一週左右 Right。所以他不是一個什麼斬首行動，結束完去，像那個對之前的委內瑞拉，把那個總統直接抓完，然後就可以走了。所以他是連續多日的作戰。第二，我們知道他的目的並不是去抓某個領導人，或者打擊某個領導人，他直接要在伊朗去形成政權的更替。所以這個時間可能比大家想像要長一點。那很多朋友的想像可能是，包括我之前有這種想像，那週末的話，他宣布投降，然後週一的話，那一下子風險偏好又回歸了。但是我們從目前這個邏輯可以得出來，美方的敘事走向，還是多日作戰。
那第二，伊朗它已經跨區去報復，擴及到多個美軍基地。第三，我們再來看一下這些航運的保險，已經開始重新定價。那麼船舶開始掉頭，從剛才給大家的這個Map上，大家可以看到。那麼第三，就是領導層遭打擊的訊息就升高，他們國民衛隊會不會產生這種報復行動 Right。所以這是我們目前可以得出的關鍵證據。這每個證據都可以指向是什麼呢？市場有可能對風險要進行一輪重新的定價。
接下來我們就說一下第一部分，我們在上週五發給大家的，這個4個有可能出現的劇本。那麼現在我們要重新去更新一下。第一，我想很多人都在想，戰爭是不是等於股市一定會崩盤？Well，我們從歷史角度上而言，它真的不一定。為什麼呢？因為重點並不是這場戰爭，它是打了還是沒有打，有沒有這個攻擊或者是怎樣。那重點是，我們要知道金融市場這個不確定性，那是否落地。如果真的是，說這個荷姆茲海峽完全被封閉的，我覺得其實金融市場也沒有那麼恐慌了，因為大家都知道，原油的定價的中樞要往上抬。可能之前是在70塊錢左右，現在一下我們從結構圖上，可能它要到什麼60，呃這個80塊，甚至更高 Right。所以金融市場最怕的是不確定性，而不是一定它一打仗就會崩盤。
那麼現在我覺得最重要的一點，就是荷姆茲海峽，它現在有兩種封鎖的狀態。第一種就是我們看到它沒有造成物理上的封鎖，我個人覺得伊朗它是沒有這個能力，因為早在一週之前，我們看到以色列它的無人機已經就像入無人之境，在這個伊朗這個領空，已經飛了好幾遍了，它把這些全部偵查完了。所以 I personally think Iran does not have the ability to physically blockade the strait, nor is the strait short. It's a large section. OK. So, I personally think Iran does not have the ability to physically blockade the strait. But they can create a de facto blockade. For example, I can threaten you to enter my waters. Second, they will interfere. Third, these insurance companies will increase premiums. So, what the market is trading on Monday is not a physical blockade, or political slogans, or future regime change, or anything like that. It's primarily trading on the possibility of navigation. So, I think Iran is more likely to achieve the former. The latter, I think, is very unlikely. They generally cannot physically blockade it.
So, let's update our four scenarios from last week. The first scenario is a rapid de-escalation. We see, for example, that it's fought for another week or two next week and immediately stops, and then negotiations. Because there are technical talks scheduled in Vienna, Austria next week. I forgot, it should be Wednesday. I'm not sure. OK. So, after the fighting stops, this is one possibility. The second is a tug-of-war. We see both sides attacking each other, back and forth. Today I bombed your base, tomorrow I will attack your leader. But we see that the main channel is still passable for ships. This is a tug-of-war. The third is that supply and shipping are attacked. Except for Chinese and Russian tankers, other countries' tankers are not allowed to pass. So, the risk premium will become higher. The last one, which everyone least wants to see, of course, for traders, there are many opportunities, is a complete loss of control. For example, US military bases are bombed, resulting in significant casualties. We see that in addition to Israel, it attacks other countries, and then other countries also join. This will expand the regional conflict. I think this possibility is quite low. We can look at Hyperliquid, which is currently trading with USDC and gold. We see that gold rises when there is war. Now gold has fallen. OK. Pay attention to this point. Of course, we can also look at the impact on US stocks. For example, we see a USA 500, which corresponds to the S&P 500. We see that it dipped when there was a war, and now it has bounced back. This proves that people are not as panicked as they thought about pricing or anything else.
So, in the simplified model, what you need to do on Monday is to protect yourself first. Don't get liquidated. Don't blindly buy the dip. Don't run out of bullets. Then, think about how to find trading opportunities. I don't recommend anyone to short anything now. Shorting here is extremely, extremely dangerous. Because it's easy for a lot of money to flow in. Some companies, for example, some oil insurance companies, let's assume they see the risk is high and need to hedge. When you short, they buy Crude Oil, and you get squeezed out. OK. So, I strongly advise against this. Buying the dip has some opportunities. I will explain in detail later. So, in the coming period, what we need to do first is to defend ourselves, and then we can attack. If you cannot defend yourself, you cannot talk about attacking. So, in the financial market, you first need to avoid mistakes. You need to preserve your principal. Then, we will consider making money.
On Monday, we first need to look at two, let's say, very hard signals. The first signal is that oil prices will definitely gap up. No doubt. We see WTI crude oil from IG has risen by about 10%. So, the oil gap up is a certainty. If there is a gap up, and then we see various news coming out, shipping insurance premiums increase, and continue to rise. Once these ships are not moving, the oil supply chain will definitely be severely impacted because about 28% of global Crude Oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. OK. But everyone should note that OPEC has said they will increase production, and the US also has reserves. China's reserves are also quite sufficient. So, this is the first point. The second signal is whether there have been major casualties. US military bases, mainly related to the USA. Once, for example, US personnel are injured and bases are heavily damaged, the defense level may need to be raised because the tail risk will become higher. At this time, we need to hold fewer risk assets and more cash.
I think the Strait of Hormuz may have some paths. These are all my subjective probability judgments, not derived from algorithms. Because this is not reasoned through algorithms. This is my personal experience. OK. I think the most likely scenario is that Iran will de facto blockade and interfere. The second path is that after a short, strong blockade, the US will say, "We are now protecting international tankers." So, there will be escorted passage. I think this possibility is also quite high. If a blockade occurs, as I just said, and lasts for more than a week, then this situation will definitely escalate. It will become a hard blockade. Long-term blockade for more than a month, I think this possibility is quite low.
In my trading, I've found that often if you've been watching the news recently and feel anxious, impulsive to buy, or shorted in advance and missed out, don't blame yourself. Because often, the mistakes we make are primitive reactions. So, I personally think that many friends cannot make long-term profits in the financial market. I mean long-term, at least 5 years. The most crucial point is that there is no repeatable advantage. So, a more important question, I've talked to many friends, like Harvey, Dongdong, we've all talked. Some of them are veteran traders. But more friends don't know if they have an advantage. For example, a friend sent me an email over the weekend and said, "Hey Arthur, can the price of crude oil rise to 120?" I said, "Why do you judge that the price of crude oil will rise to 120?" Because the news says it will be blocked. Right. The point is, did you arrive at this 120 through logic? Through the reasoning we just discussed? He said, "Oh, there's also the Strait of Hormuz, and you can see the shipping map." Right. So, if you don't have an advantage, and you make decisions every day, you basically earn a little, lose a little, earn a little, lose a little. Occasionally, you make a big profit, and then you quickly give the money back to the market. So, the best way is to use my 20 years of experience to help you. I've put a free test on my website. So, you can take a test. On my homepage, it only takes a few minutes. You can test it. It asks you to answer 15 questions. After answering these 15 questions, you can basically determine whether you have an advantage or not. And all friends who complete it will receive a free repair checklist based on your situation. This is completely free. So, everyone can try it.
Next, let's look at the second part. This is also what I mentioned in the newsletter before, a three-part defense formation. Today, I will tell you again. These three layers of structure actually have the same goal. OK. The same goal is that we can survive in this volatility. Survive and make money. So, on Friday, I told you in the newsletter how to build these three layers. It's actually similar to the core and satellite strategy I mentioned before. OK. First, you need a base position. This base position can be, for example, SPY, QQQ, TSMC, or dividends from Chinese stocks. Right. This position we hold is to eat the entire world economy, the US economy, the AI economy. It can grow long-term. So, for your base position, you absolutely don't need to clear your position because of conflicts in the Middle East. I think it's unnecessary. Does the conflict in Iran change AI? Not really, right? OK. Second, you need a layer of bulletproof vest to hedge against the volatility caused by headlines, whether it's war conflicts or changes in market narrative. At the same time, you also need a fire extinguisher to prevent tail risks. This time, with this conflict, you will not only not suffer losses, but you can also make money.
The second layer of bulletproof vest, I've told you before. The most typical reflection of risk premium is two: first is energy, second is military industry. I think the impact on the military industry this time is likely not as great as energy. Because for the military industry, there is no Strait of Hormuz, and its supply will not be interrupted. But energy can be interrupted. So, the task of this layer of bulletproof vest is what? To absorb the short-term declines caused by conflicts. No matter which country or region, if there is such a conflict, tomorrow Israel will clash with some other country. Then we can use the same operation. We can still look for these targets. But I want to tell you, there is a very big trap when you wear this layer of bulletproof vest. What is it? If you haven't bought it yet, frankly, it's too late to buy now. For example, if the price of crude oil is $60 a barrel, and it opens at $80 on Monday, if you buy now, you are paying an extra $20. Among these $20, there may be $15 that is risk premium. So, chasing at the opening is a low EV (expected value) operation. This is emotional premium. So, we need to deploy during the stalemate period. At the peak of panic, we know that over the weekend, many people have had many imaginations. Some say it will rise to 120.
Our third layer is the fire extinguisher. What is this fire extinguisher? First, the best choice for a fire extinguisher is cash and short-term bonds. US short-term bonds. If you are a non-US resident, you can buy IB01 (accumulating type) and continue to invest this money. This is registered in Ireland. So, if you are a non-US resident, you are an Alien Right. You don't have to pay dividend tax. OK. Everyone can remember this point. Put options on gold, these are all your fire extinguishers. Their function includes gold. It's not about making money with gold. Frankly, gold is not a large part of my personal portfolio. It's a life-saving tool. If you can hoard some physical gold, that's even better. So, the function of the fire extinguisher, especially cash and short-term bonds, is to keep the bullets for buying the dip at this time. Suppose you have 1 million funds now. 700,000 is the base position, 200,000 is the bulletproof vest, and 100,000 is the fire extinguisher. If a conflict occurs and ends quickly, your base position will definitely make money. SPY, no need to think about it. QQQ, the US financial market is designed for the global market. Right. It will be bought up again. You make money. 700,000 makes money. Very nice. You bought the bulletproof vest, and it will give back some risk. Which is fine. You bought the bulletproof vest and the fire extinguisher. Your cash part will not lose money. You bought put options, and you may have some losses. But overall, it's controllable. Which means you can still make money, right? This is a math problem.
If a conflict occurs and expands, or something else happens, if you have already built a layer of bulletproof vest, for example, if you bought the bulletproof vest, you might have about 10% return on Monday. Two days, right? Cash you keep. We see if there is a decline. For example, if the stock market opens and falls, I think a better opportunity is to buy the dip. Right. So, in trading, the most important thing is not what asset. I think buying SPY, buying QQQ, buying any base position doesn't make much of a difference. Or buying VTV, right? The most important thing is how you judge with logic, according to your risk tolerance. For example, if you have 100,000 yuan, how do you allocate it? If you are a fresh graduate and only have 10,000 yuan, how do you allocate it? If I were you, in my twenties, with a long working life ahead, I would probably allocate 30-50% to the bulletproof vest. On Monday's opening, I think the best way is to make a decision based on your different types.
Next, we will talk about a decision tree. So, the next important point is that I am not telling you to buy the dip tomorrow's opening, or not to buy, or to clear your position, or anything like that. I am giving you a decision tree. Based on your own situation, everyone is different. Everyone's age is different. Everyone's economic situation is different. Everyone's invested capital is different. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. You decide based on your own situation. OK. Before the opening, if you want to lose money, do these three things. The first thing is: see the gap up, and directly buy at market price. This will cause a reason. For example, the price of crude oil was previously 70 yuan. On Monday, we see that the opening is at 82 yuan. At this time, you see a market order. You say, "I want to buy crude oil now." You will find that you are transacted at 85 yuan, or even higher. Why? I'll tell you the logic. Because no one is selling to you. Nobody's selling. Everyone is thinking about closing their positions. So, you often buy at a higher price. After buying, the market has no one to continue buying, and it will fall again. So, you might buy at 85 yuan. When you blink your eyes, why has the price suddenly fallen to 77 yuan?
Second, let's look at it. If you want to make some decisions, at least I personally, when you don't understand Order Flow, Order Book, and these things, you need to make a decision after 15 minutes. And before the opening, if you want to lose money, look at the price rising in the 15 minutes before the opening, and then watch the news, turn on the TV to listen to the news, turn on YouTube live streams. Absolutely do not do this.
Third, don't look at these. For example, before Monday's opening, let's see if more ships are leaving. Is the Strait of Hormuz blocked? Or have US military bases been attacked? What is Trump saying? If you don't look at this logic, and don't look at these signals, you open the news. The news reports that World War III is about to break out. Look at the group chat. "Hey brothers, let's hurry up and buy this, what, crude oil." If you want to lose money, do it like this. OK. This is also why many friends ask me, "Do you have a trading group?" No, I don't have one. When you trade, how can you look at a group? Even if I open a group, it's very likely to harm you. Why? Let me give you an example. Your original idea might be to buy the dip. Then, if I tell you, "Hey, I'm posting in the group, hey everyone, I'm closing my crude oil position now." When you want to buy, you just don't buy. You go and chase a short position instead. But did I tell you that the crude oil position only accounts for 2% to 3% of my position? Right. Did I tell you, for example, that I bought at a very low price before? Did I tell you that I still hold call options after selling? Right. None of these. So, opening such a group chat is meaningless. These calls are also meaningless.
When talking about money, you need to look at six very important indicators. First, the gap up in crude oil and gold is now a certainty. The key is whether the gap up will continue. For example, it gaps here and opens here, and then fluctuates around it. I think that's a good thing. What you least want to see is that it rises at the opening and then rushes up further. I think that's a terrible thing because the liquidity vacuum it brings back will cause it to fluctuate back and forth, killing you. Bitcoin will also experience this. Until you are squeezed out.
Second, look at whether the possibility of ship passage is increasing. At the same time, we see if war premiums and insurance terms continue to increase. Have US military bases suffered casualties? Have there been reports? The most important point about oil prices is this: suppose over the weekend we received news, for example, that negotiations are being prepared or something like that. But you see that the price of crude oil has risen to, say, 80 yuan. It has not fallen. Then we know that the market is pricing in higher risk. All these indicators, you don't need to listen to others. Right. These are all facts.
Friends here are likely to be in three states. So, according to your holding status, we need three sets of different actions. The first set: you are fully invested in risk assets, holding a large amount of stocks, Bitcoin. Then we will talk about what to do. The second category: you hold some cash or are already out of the market. The third category: you are already holding hedging assets. So, what do we do?
First category: If you are currently fully invested in risk assets, you must protect your worst-case scenario. If you can relate to volatility, then trade volatility. If not, the best way is to reduce your position first. What to reduce first? First, high-beta assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, high P/E ratio, high valuation. Second, illiquid assets, which are difficult to sell. So, you will use options, financial products. First, protect your tail risk. Because if it gets out of control, your full position will be magnified in risk. We must survive first, then trade. So, if you don't know how, just cut the highest volatility first. Then take this money and put it into cash and short-term bonds, forcibly bringing it to about 15-25%. And more importantly, at this time, if the market falls tomorrow, don't rush to buy the dip emotionally. Why? You know, for example, if the S&P 500 falls by two standard deviations, what is the probability of rising or falling tomorrow? If you don't know, I can directly use our tools to show you. Trading is a science, not a gamble.
Let's look at SPY, S&P 500. If there is an extreme drop of two standard deviations, it's about a 4% to 5% drop. Only one day. Let's calculate. You will have a positive return. But we see that during the epidemic period, you will suffer such a large loss. If you say you can bear such a large loss, and see the stock market fall, it's a good opportunity to buy the dip. Let's look at the volatility of SPY. One standard deviation is 1.22. This is 0.05. Ignore it. Two standard deviations is 2.44. In this situation, you are already fully invested. First, survive the risk. And absolutely do not buy the dip emotionally at this time. OK.
Second category: If you are currently out of the market, or like the friend who just said, has 10 million yuan in cash, or whatever amount of cash you have. What should we do at this time? OK. At this time, I will give you a few personal suggestions. First, you must not panic and chase high prices, chasing crude oil, gold, etc. You must not chase. Including the risk premium of the product itself. An apple was originally 10 yuan, but now it sells for 15 yuan. The 5 yuan is because I bought it in advance and bore the market uncertainty. Now I sell it to you. So, we need to wait for some signals to stabilize before placing an order. After a few days of negotiation, then you can replenish your position. Even if we think about it, what kind of situations will the market experience? Falling and then rising. Even if I wait for the volatility to repair and return here, I will buy it. I don't want to buy at the bottom. What if it falls further? What if it falls even deeper? Do you have unlimited money to buy the dip? Probably not. OK.
Second, holding cash, we divide it into three segments and buy slowly. The first segment, you set a position of, say, 10%, or even smaller. For example, the price of crude oil fluctuates back and forth. When it falls to around 80 yuan, we look at buyers and sellers. Let's look at the Crude Oil just now. For example, it opens at 80, 77 tomorrow. If the price of crude oil slowly forms a new consensus here, we can consider buying a position here first. Right. If it falls, we buy another position. If it returns here, we clear a position. If it rises to here, we add a position. So, slowly build up your position bit by bit. You never want to buy all at once. The market always has inexhaustible money. So, we have money. Now, only focus on core assets and low leverage. Don't gamble on crude oil or gold. We use a low-cost, limited-risk structure. For example, if you are familiar with options, you can do some Back Ratio Spreads. If you are not familiar with this, you have two choices. First, learn. Second, don't learn, just do DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) and invest slowly. Absolutely do not be anxious. Absolutely do not let this panic engulf your brain. OK.
Third category: We are already holding hedging assets. Tomorrow, if crude oil, I will close part of the position. Because why? Energy and military industry were originally my overweight positions. So, we need to rebalance according to our personality. For example, originally it only accounted for 10% of my position, but now it has risen to 15%. Then I will sell this 5%. Second, if the broader market experiences a sharp decline, like SPY falling by two Standard Deviations or more, but we see evidence that the strait is blocked. Note, everyone, we must look at evidence, not words. If the broader market is falling, but the strait is still passable, then it's simple. I will add this money back to my core position. Like IB01 or some VTV, I have always held them. They can give me dividends every year and bring me returns. Right. If we see that the strait is blocked and attacked again, then our third layer of cash, we don't need to hold it for now. Keep it. You always have opportunities.
Another point is, if you hold products related to VIX, you can only do short-term hedging to help you hedge. It's insurance. Don't hold it long-term. It's meaningless. Because long-term, for example, let's look at UVXY, which is 1.5 times leveraged long volatility. This is its curve. From the beginning, if of course, it has stock splits and reverse stock splits, it has been falling. Let's look at the latest. Do you see? If you hold such volatility products, you hold insurance, you are constantly losing money. Look at this. This is what many people are promoting, asking you to buy UVXY. It's always losing money. It will occasionally make a big profit, from 35 yuan to 140 yuan. What you need to do is to hold insurance during this period. But in the long run, except for the epidemic, do you see, Guys? If you hold such products that Wall Street uses to harvest leeks, your price is slow bleeding, slow loss of blood. It's meaningless. OK.
Let's go back now. So, in this way, everyone is very clear. Before the opening, you need to ask yourself three very important questions. What is my current holding position? Is there hedging? Right. Is there a main position? What changes have we seen in shipping today? So, what we need to do first is, in the future, I think crude oil will have four different volatility paths within two weeks. These four different paths, I think, will first surge, then pull back a part, like this, immediately fall. The probability of this happening is not that high. The most likely path is a phased upward movement, followed by high-volatility sideways trading. What does this mean? Let's look at the bottom. It surges, falls back, then surges again, and fluctuates back and forth here until the volatility shrinks. The third is a direct surge upwards, breaking through 100. This situation will definitely be out of control. OK. In this situation, all risk assets, including stocks, will be sold off, because it means inflation will be reflected in inflation. OK. The fourth path is rapid de-escalation, and it quickly returns to the previous 60. I think this possibility is probably not that high. It might fluctuate back and forth around 70-80. So, the focus next week is on how the gap will be. Second, what about the shipping channel? So, if you want to trade crude oil, you should look at this chart every hour, every day, and see what changes are happening.
Second, the risk is already extreme. The war may continue, and the tail risk is also expanding. So, what are the two hard signals we need to watch? Shipping and premiums. In addition, US military bases are bombed. Whether they are retaliated by Iran or suffer casualties. So, no matter what kind of trader you are, you must protect yourself first, and then we can talk about attacking. I think oil prices will not be a short-term event of one or two days. What is likely to happen is a high platform, high volatility.
The next round of Bayesian updates we need to focus on are: First, the possibility of passage through the strait. I have emphasized this point today, I estimate at least 10 times. Second, we need to see if oil prices are falling due to de-escalation, saying they are negotiating. But we see that oil prices are not falling. Then we need to be careful. It may be late to buy the stock market, because crude oil is still pricing in higher risk. For the United States, it is more important for us to see if there are casualties and damages. And whether armed conflict may intensify. I think this possibility is still quite small. Finally, we need to see what Trump says. Right. Does he say we have won and are ready to negotiate? In this situation, crude oil may fall, and then you will have some trading opportunities. OK. These are the four things we need to watch.
Next, there will be an 8-week in-depth training camp, probably in April or May. If you want to hear calls, absolutely do not do it, it is meaningless. These are for those who want to survive and profit in the financial market long-term, and you hope to build your own fundamental operating system. As a trader, I've found that many traders have three problems. First, they don't know if they have an advantage. By doing the free test I mentioned before, this has been solved. Second, there is too much noise. More importantly, you know it, but you can't execute it. So, our 8-week course includes practical training. First, clarify your viewpoint, then teach you how to look at the market scientifically, statistics, and some of our other tools. Then we have strategies. Strategies are not about quantity, but about effectiveness. As long as the strategy is effective, you can continue to profit from it. I myself do. The most important thing is how to execute it. It needs to be paired with our newly developed Edge Engine tool. Because in the next month, I may not have that much time to make videos. Because Max and I, and another Max, have hired a few friends. We need to reconfigure our Edge Engine in detail, including your own growth, including how to complete such training.
In addition, we will have some interactive groups this time. For example, groups of two or four people. And there will be homework to submit every week. You need to do these checks, checklists, or something. OK. If you want to participate, I will have a page later. But I will notify those who have completed the self-assessment first. Second, if you have purchased the previous Expected Value EV course, the price you bought it at, you can deduct it at the original price. This course is equivalent to me giving it to you. OK. So, whether you are investing or trading, the goal is to give you something you can execute. More importantly, it can be verified. You need to verify it through statistical knowledge, and then build your own positive expected value trading system.