Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you have the energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, November 15, 2025, in front of a slightly red cryptomap that stings the eyes, but that's the performance over the last 24 hours, and these last 24 hours, we took a hit with a Friday that wasn't pretty at all. But if we look at the performance of cryptos since the opening of the hourly candle at 1 am, basically the new Saturday hourly candle, we see that we have rather green. Bitcoin +1.5, Ethereum +2, BNB around +2, Solana +2, Avax +2. Well, we're around +2, some are even going for +5% or even +6 like Uniswap, like here Beacon Cash, like Litecoin, so it's a bit of green this Saturday, which is nice, we can breathe a little because we took a bit of a hit this week. So at least the weekend will be relaxing with a bit of green, even if we're not out of the woods, which is on fire, of course, but it's good to breathe for at least the 2 days of the weekend.
So this week wasn't pretty either in terms of ETFs, the American Bitcoin ETFs which sold 1.5 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. Fortunately, Tuesday was there with 500 million in purchases. So basically, we're at a negative of a billion. Well, it's not very, very pretty, you see. So the clients of American ETFs are rather sellers. This reflects well what's happening in the stock market. The stock market is selling. For Ethereum, it's the same. There were about 700 million dollars in Ethereum sales. Well, so it's not very, very pretty.
So all of this means the market is in extreme fear. Here we see extreme fear, these are areas that scare a lot of people where some, well, the majority I would say, panic, are in fear, in stress, and all that, but if you're a little smart, periods of extreme fear are periods that you love. I love periods of extreme fear. Ah, I embrace extreme fear. I fight like this, I rub my hands. Ah, extreme fear, I love it. Yes.
Well, why do I love extreme fear? The market had warned us. You don't need to be Einstein or have a master's degree in finance to calmly ride the big waves. Remember this summer, during the 2 months of this summer, I'm not talking about 2 days, during the 2 months of this summer, the market lit up many red lights saying beware of ugly divergences, beware of weekly divergences, very ugly for Bitcoin and for Ethereum. Okay. It wasn't alone. Bitcoin at the weekly close, Ethereum when it hit 4950, many red lights lit up saying divergence, divergence, divergence. These red lights were already on for Bitcoin and Ethereum lit up theirs afterwards, okay. So all summer there were, I heard, all on-chain analyses that I sent you this summer, they all said beware of distribution, sales, all that. So afterwards, some said "Ah no, I don't hear anything, everything is fine, it's great." [laughter] And then there are some whom I called Team Too Early, of which I am a part. These are those who sell perhaps too early, but it's better to be too early than too late. We talked about this all summer, and so many big analysts and many big finance investors who made fortunes, many say "I became rich, I made a fortune because I sold too early, I sold before others," you see. So this summer, I made myself a little stablecoin stash, ready for the bear market. I told you this all summer. And so those who didn't do that, well, it's a shame because there was no surprise there. The top, so to speak, of the cycle, if it is indeed the top at 126,000, well, there was all summer to calmly take profits, you see. We can't say "Oh dear, I missed the top, I don't understand, it's too complicated." No, no, we really had time, there was all the time.
And why do I say this? Because these periods of extreme fear are the opposite. That's when you should get out your little wallet and do your little shopping. It's not complicated. A little chocolate Satoshi, a little strawberry Satoshi, a little banana Satoshi, a little cheese Satoshi, a little Satoshi of whatever flavor you want. And so it's in these periods that we go on a Satoshi hunt and that we are in extreme greed, here in the green, it's the opposite. I'll show you that in 2 seconds. You'll understand with dear Bitcoin. So for now, altcoins have small green candles. Well, it's not that catastrophic. What's ugly, what's really ugly? It's breaking the Bollinger band on altcoins at 625 billion. A red candle that goes like this. And then, you really have the ugly starting because the Bollinger bands are quite compressed, as you can see here. So, all it takes is to break the lower Bollinger band and it's a nuclear descent, quite simply. Well, so we'll see to avoid breaking this Bollinger band. For now, the bulls are there, but the momentum is quite weak. Okay, so that's rather good news.
Another thing too, we are starting to draw bullish divergences on the daily. So it's not very visible here on the altcoins, but I'll show you on Ethereum and others. So, divergences, bullish or bearish, are made on the closes. Okay? So it's better to put a line like this. And so, basically, you see that the price is going down while the RSI is going up, you see, and the momentum is also going up. So, basically, for now, there is bullish divergence, which is small, timid, but it's there, and especially bullish divergences on the RSI are not bad. Okay, so as usual, we have to wait for it to pass and for the storm to pass, there will be beautiful sunshine.
Now on dear little Bitcoin, it's more visible here. For now, dear little Bitcoin, there is no divergence, okay, but on Ethereum there is, you'll see. So for now, dear little Bitcoin is on its lower Bollinger band, around 80, some say 95,000. Well, the gap isn't very far. It would be a bit crazy for the market to be mischievous and not go for the gap and push. So it's true that many expect it to go to the gap. And how does it usually happen historically in this kind of situation where it doesn't go for the gap, it turns around immediately and all the people waiting here in the reloading zone between around 94,000 and 85,000 are like, oh no, Bitcoin didn't go there, oh no, but it pushed quickly and I'm buying higher, I'm buying higher, so that's a scenario, these things happen. Second scenario is that it will break the gap so strongly downwards, directly below 85,000, that people will get scared, they will sell at a loss, and that's it. Well, so it's rare that it just closes the gap and goes back up, you see. So we'll see. Let's hope it's not scenario 2, the immediate collapse of everything.
Now, the good news we have is that Bitcoin has touched the oversold zone. The last time it touched the oversold zone, our dear little Bitcoin. When was that? Well, I'll show you right away. Hop. So, the last time it touched the oversold zone was in February 2025. See, the levels, really at an RSI of 32, it was in February 2025. The last time before that was in August 2024. And what happened in August 2024 and February 2025? By any chance, weren't there big bottoms? And yes, there were big bottoms. Okay. So that's good news. In any case, here when Bitcoin lands in its oversold zone below an RSI of 32, that's when you should get out your little wallet and do your little shopping in everyone's panic, if you want, you see. And on the contrary, when Bitcoin is in the overbought zone here, your dear little crazy one always tells you beware, these are the zones where smart money, smart investors take profits. The last time we were in the overbought zone, October 4th, what was October 4th? October 4th, October 4th, well, Bitcoin here around 125,000 dollars, well, what a coincidence. Okay. So it's always the same tune, it's always like this. You have to, it's not complicated, it's me, of course. In any case, what does your little crazy one do? I'll put it this way. Your little crazy one buys to the maximum in extreme situations, the oversold zone, and your little crazy one fills his stablecoin wallet because I never sell everything. My goal is to accumulate as many Satoshis as possible in my life and to still take a little profit from it. A little stablecoin stash in the overbought zone. When we are there, everyone is happy. Everyone says Bitcoin 500,000, Bitcoin 1 million, Bitcoin is the best asset in the world. It will replace everyone. We will all eat Bitcoin and breathe Bitcoin, you see. And on the other hand, when you are here, everyone says "But Bitcoin, you are too useless, cryptos are too useless, I should never have gotten into cryptos." So, being binary like this with emotion is not good at all. In finance, you have to be without emotion and then, and then, calmly follow the indicators. Especially since beware, the divergences that were nuclear this summer, it warned us. Tomorrow we will do the weekly analysis. The market had warned us. There was no surprise, no surprise. There were three big weekly bearish divergences and of course daily divergences three times. Bitcoin hit 121,000 dollars the first time, then 123,000 dollars the second time, and 126,000 the last time. So there is really no surprise. Well, now, what is this little Bitcoin doing? Is it going to give us a little continuation to go for the gap at 121,000? Uh, yes, at 91,000, sorry. Well, if it proposes a little bullish channel, then yes, the next thing will be boom, the descent. What we want to see is a little bearish channel like this. That would be cool. An exhaustion channel, and then that would be the reversal. So we will watch closely. What will it give us? Will it go for its 92,000? Will it go much lower? Will it eat this little cluster that goes up to almost 92,000? There isn't much, there are about 2 billion dollars. On the other hand, there are 8 billion, four times more, at 106,000. If Bitcoin returns to an all-time high, you need 20 or 30 billion. Well, at some point, you'll have to cash out what's to the north, if you want.
Now, regarding Ethereum, I'm going straight into July. Good news, Ethereum is showing daily bullish divergence. So that's starting to be good. It doesn't mean that the bottom is here and we're going to the moon everywhere. Not yet. Okay, but it's starting to be good news to see bullish divergences forming. It supports something. Yes, it can be conducive to the creation of bottoms, clearly. Especially since Ethereum has visited the oversold zone on RSI several times. Once on September 25th, once on November 4th, it can return to these oversold zones again. Soon, some will regret it. I told you the same thing. The same thing when we were in February 2025, the oversold zones, some will regret it. And in February 2025, Bitcoin was at how much? Bitcoin was around 76,000 dollars, approximately, you see, between 76 and 77, you see. And here, it's the same, the oversold zone. So, Bitcoin can absolutely go down to 92,000 or even lower, but in any case, all those who are in the oversold zone, at some point, many will regret it. You see, it's the same tune every time. So, Ethereum, it's the same, it goes to the oversold zone several times, it means you always have to keep some ammunition, you never know, you see. Because it's not just "Oh, it's going into the oversold zone, I'm buying everything." No, it can hit, bounce, hit even lower. You see, it takes time to make a little bottom, it's not immediate.
In any case, what is certain is that when you are in the overbought zone with such extreme levels, saying "Yeah, Ethereum 4950, to the moon, it's too great" and you have nuclear divergences forming, well, it's not the time to just say "Yeah, we're going to the moon, it's time to say "Oh my god, it's overheating like crazy, it stinks." You see? So, well, and that's it, we had plenty of time all summer for that, so there is absolutely no surprise. And unfortunately, these are lessons. So, can Ethereum go for its gap at 2853? Yes, it's possible. Now, we have to see what it's drawing on the structure. For now, it's a bit of a mess, but if this mess becomes a bearish channel, it will be good news to try to start again. Okay? If, on the other hand, it turns into a bullish channel, boom, descent to the gap at 2000, 853. So weekends are quite calm, volumes are quite low, it's doing its little green thing. So, well, we'll have to wait a bit for tomorrow with the weekly analysis, it will be better. We'll see a bit more on the weekly, that's more interesting. Can Ethereum go to 2800? Yes, it can go eat all that. There's about 1 billion dollars, but the biggest is of course to the north.
Regarding Solana, the same thing. So Solana, the overbought zones were here on September 15th, and especially the most extreme was July 21st. July 21st, what was this little Solana at? So, the last overbought zone, just to show you for the newcomers who don't know, the overbought zone is where investors take profits. Well, it was when Solana was around 250 dollars. You see the previous extreme overbought zone, where is the overbought zone? This one, this one is not bad. This overbought zone was, wait, where is it? Wait, I'll push a bit. This one is not bad on Solana at 300 dollars. I think the weekly divergences were when Solana was at 300 dollars. If my memory serves me right, we'll look at that tomorrow on the weekly. Well, anyway, all that to say that the market warns, the market warns in advance. Then some, the problem is that many people are drowned in euphoric emotion. When the market explodes, we think that's it, it's going to explode even more. But when the market explodes and red lights of technical analysis light up, well, you have to listen to them. And it's hard to sell when the red lights are on and everyone is euphoric. You don't want to, you just want to say "No, I don't hear anything, the market is to the moon, I'm waiting for it to continue to the moon." The problem is that no, you have to hurt yourself and take profits, especially when you don't want to, when everyone says it's great, it's going, go rocket, you're all on the rocket, all that. Well, anyway, we have bullish divergences also forming on Solana, it's starting to be interesting. It doesn't mean the bottom is here, it means that well, it helps to create bottoms. It puts good, robust mattresses to support. Same if Solana continues to make a bullish channel this weekend, boom, it will be a descent towards 121. If it proposes a bearish channel, it will be good news to finally start again. It will smell like the end. Can it go for 121? Yes, it could still nibble at that if it wants. There's about 200 million. On the other hand, there's four times more, 800 million, around 160 dollars.
And to finish, XRP, so for now it's consolidating calmly. The Bollinger bands are very compressed. If XRP breaks its lower band here at 214 with a red candle like this, it will be a descent into hell. For now, it doesn't have any bullish divergence forming, but it's not as catastrophic as the others. It's in its range, calmly. Well, we don't forget that it still has the little channel it broke, that's why it's going down a bit. But the descent is happening on a channel, which already means the end of the decline, you see, the end of the exhaustion of the bearish wave. So it's rather good news. So, apparently, this little XRP won't go very, very far into hell. You see, it still has a little tower to reach when we made the video 2 days ago, there was a lot of liquidity to the south. Now, it still has a little tower to reach up to about 2.10. It can, so it can still grab a little bit. Zoug zoug. Wait, I'll take the little brush here. Zoug zoug up to the back, which is not very far. And then when it finishes its little bearish channel, then it will start again. That would mean that everyone is doing their little bearish channel. Well, so for now, okay, not everything is beautiful, especially. Yes, I saw altcoin charts. Some altcoins, even many, are in bear market mode, tobogganing into hell. Well, Bitcoin, not yet in hell. We would need to break key levels that we will see tomorrow in the analysis. Small divergences are appearing today, bullish ones. Good news. Small green lights are appearing, but we would need more green lights to start saying "the bottom is here." But it's already a start to see small bullish divergence lights appearing. That's nice. Others will light up, and at some point, a bottom will be formed. Friends, courage, be strong, I send you kisses and we'll talk tomorrow, bye bye. He. [music]