Transcription
video. Welcome. Uh, it's my great pleasure to invest our very special speaker, uh, Mr. Georgio. It's not an exaggeration to say he's one of the most respected global statesmen, having served 23 years in the Singaporean government as a member of the core team around legendary Singaporean prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, and having participated in this economic transition, transformation that Singapore has achieved within only one generation from the third world to the very much a first world country. Mr. served as a in several capacities as a minister, minister of healthcare, minister of information and arts, minister of industry and trade. Very, very, very important for these days, and and and finally also as the minister of foreign affairs. After having left the public service, he worked as a CEO of Kerry Logistics, a large logistics company centered in Asia. And uh, in, I'm not going to tell you the whole CV because it's, it's very accomplished and very, uh, um, you know, you can spend time talking about it, but I will say that, uh, he was also serving, uh, as the member of the Vatican Economic Council under Pope Francis, so he is, he knows the inner workings of the Vatican quite well. It's really a pleasure to have you here with us today, George, um, and welcome back to Croatia. We just discussed, first time Mr. Yo visited Croatia was 10 years ago. The reason, you see the title of the panel is, you know, solving the three-body problem. I'm not sure we're going to solve the three-body problem today. Nobody managed to solve it in in the last couple of centuries. It's one of the last unsolved mathematical problems. When you have three celestial bodies, uh, orbiting around one another, it's impossible to calculate their trajectories. Uh, three-body problem is an also a title of a very amazing book. I highly recommend by a Chinese author. If you have time to to to read it, definitely do. Uh, but the reason why we decided to name this session three-body problem is because we see that the world today is changing. It's shifting. The tectonic plates are shifting. And whether you live in Europe, US, or Asia, everybody feels it at some level. And we hope, whether you're an investor or whether you're just a person trying to figure out what is happening with the world. We hope that Mr. could help us clarify a little bit that. So, with that having said, uh, George, how do you see the current state of the world if you had to solve the three-body problem using it as a metaphor? How would, how, where is the world going?
First, M, thank you for gifting me that book, which I read with pleasure and the greatest interest. It does make a very important philosophical point about uncertainty and risk. I think all of us sense that the world is going through a great transition where things happen suddenly in in unexpected ways. So, in such a period when there are geopolitical risks, there are domestic political risks, there are technological risks, there are advances in science and technology which perhaps change the very meaning of humanity itself. What do we do? I think the first thing is, um, don't think you have a crystal ball into the future. Instead, try to envisage what are the longer-term trends. After Trump, after Putin, after Xi Jinping, what are the deep certainties? The mountains will be there, the Adriatic will be here, China will be there, Russia will be there. So, Russia will not disappear. It's hard to envisage a scenario where Russia, with its history and heritage and cultural contribution, disappears. Or Europe. Can Europe change, change its nature? My first time in history, the first time I've heard of Robin, but I know that this corner of the Adriatic is strategically very important. I remember in staff college writing an essay about Normandy D-Day and why Churchill wanted to hold back the second front. After defeating Rommel in South Africa, the Allied forces are creeping up the Italian peninsula, and Churchill wanted, instead of opening a second front, to move into this corner, past the Ljubljana Gap, and anticipate Russia's arrival in Central Europe. But Roosevelt would have none of it. These are all imperial interests. Begin the second front. So, some things don't change, but many things will change. And how do we adjust to it? You know, the Romans have this wonderful reminder, "Memento mori." Why do they repeat this to victorious generals? Because when you are in a high emotional state, you think that success is forever, or failure is forever. You forget that, as we were reminded in the last session, that there are cycles in real estate. There are always cycles. There are different cycles for residential property, for shopping centers, for industrial estates, for different things. There are always cycles. So, what do we do when we are entering a period of great uncertainty? Firstly, is remember that we will die. Okay, that kind of focuses the mind that, okay, we will die, then what? Well, we worry about what others will think of us. Do we, do we become hedonistic since we're going to die, or do we say, "No, no, there's more to life than just dying"? So, it's family, it is values, it's what we leave behind. So, I think in this period, we go back to basics, take smaller steps, be highly alert to what's going on around, both short-term changes and longer-term certainties, and go back inside to be strong as human beings, to be strong as families, to be strong as local communities. That, whatever happens, we, even though we may suffer injuries, we'll be okay. Even as refugees, if, if we are of good character, strong, able to take hardship, with loyalties to friends and faithfulness to family and so on, we will survive whatever the situation. But if we are individualistic and think only of our own lives, then under, under pressure, we'll fragment and atomize. So, in this period we're going into, say, take a city-state like Singapore. You can't take chances. You can't assume that there will be good weather all the time. We must assume that from time to time, big storms will come. So, are the umbrellas ready? Do we have shelters? Most importantly, do we have savings? And are our people strong and united? And if we are, then okay, we may still be destroyed if the forces are too great, but our chances of survival will be greatly improved.
I, I agree with you. We do not have the crystal ball, but some mega trends are clearly showing direction. You spend most of your political and life career in Asia. There is a sense that Europe, uh, misunderstands maybe Asia, in particular China. And, uh, Europe is currently in a situation where it's simultaneously trying to find an equilibrium both with our partners in the US as well as with our partners in China. Uh, if you had to give a kind of a mega trend analysis, can you tell us a little bit about how you see, where you see China going, and what's your view on Europe?
Our instincts, our assumptions, our hold over from the period after the Second World War, when the US, as a country which was not itself affected by warfare, dominated the global economy, constituting about 40% of global GDP. Then we had a Cold War. The Soviet Union was a closed system. And many of the public goods, many of the global institutions that we developed under were American-inspired and American-directed, like the WTO, WHO, IMF, and so on. But since then, America's relative strength has receded. The old world in Asia is re-emerging, as you would have expected them to, because these are ancient peoples. And there is a new equilibrium trying to establish itself, but the mind is still trapped in the past. So, we are still used to a world where we speak the English language, where America is dominant, where the intellectual categories which we learn in American business schools are those that we use to analyze things. And in that world, there's a tendency to judge Asia, to judge China, and assume that what applies to the West will apply to them. So, when I read articles about the Thucydides Trap and how the lessons of the Peloponnesian War would apply to Asia, I thought, but Asia has different histories, different traditions, and different ways of looking at themselves and the world. So, it's useful if we want a better assessment of risk and trends to be rooted in multiple civilizations, to understand the Western view, to understand the Chinese view, the Russian view, the Indian view, and then to check ourselves, hey, don't rush to a conclusion because your thinking is based upon axioms and assumptions which are holdovers from the past. It may, in fact, be different. So, a certain self-doubt, a certain willingness to see things from other perspectives becomes very useful. We take, take China. The phenomenon of China is viewed sometimes as a threat, and European leaders likely dismiss China as an enemy. They reduce the whole human history to be a struggle between autocracy and democracy. It's almost childish. China is an enormous phenomenon, and even many lifetimes won't enable you to understand more than a fraction of what China is. So, begin from the fact that it is too big for us to fully understand, but understand it, try to understand it as a phenomenon, and not be too quick to judge it. But the temptation of Western journalists, Western analysts, is to visit China a few times, maybe a hundred times, think they know China, and begin to judge China, and more than that, to prescribe a list of things for China to do for it to do well. I'm not sure the intentions are always noble, but if you're such a good physician, first heal yourself. And it's quite clear that these very intelligent individuals who write very well, that if they were to give the same prescription to their own societies, that the old societies will improve. So, begin with the fact that there are many things we don't know, and there are risks in in this lack of knowledge and uncertainty, and begin from there is a much better starting point.
Uh, another country that Europe will certainly have to find a new equilibrium with is, is Russia. The war in Ukraine really shook, uh, Europe to the core. Europe has wholeheartedly helped the Ukrainian effort. It has also accepted a much higher energy cost to the detriment of, of European industry. As a minister of foreign affairs of Singapore, you have personally met some of the key actors who are playing the, the role here. What is your view, as somebody with the long-term experience in foreign affairs at the highest level? How and when will this war end?
If we flip through a historical atlas and look at the lands between the Baltics and the Black Sea, which includes lands very near here, they were never stable. The boundaries shifted eastwards and westwards, northwards and southwards. The same rivers, the same marshes, the same plains. If you are in real estate and you're building on unstable land, have smaller structures and have structures which can flex. But to think that on unstable land you can ensure stability and peace by big construction, in the end, you will fail. So, because of memories of the old Soviet Union, many countries wanted ultimate solutions. Bring NATO in, have the Americans here, reduce Russia, then our anxieties are permanently resolved. Can it? If you are living in Hong Kong, can you wish typhoons away? If you are living in, in the Balkans, can you resolve the big plates which are Muslims, Orthodox, Catholic, Slavic, Turic, Germanic, Latin? This place will always be there. Therefore, there will always be fault lines. Therefore, in building political structures and economic configurations, assume that there will be tremors and earthquakes. So, build them smaller, allow them to flex. So, we play back, go back to 2021. Go back to the time when Putin wrote his famous essay, "A Common History of Ukraine and Russia." If we had taken him seriously, then could we have avoided maybe the death of a million young men in Russia and Ukraine? I think we could have. And having now sacrificed this enormous number of young lives and so much destruction, are we better off? So, without a sense of history of the future, we can make terrible mistakes and still come back only to the same point. Will Russia disappear? I remember reading H.L. Fisher, Oxford historian, who wrote a history of Europe in the '30s, in the chapter on Russia. He said, for one, two centuries, they were under the heel of the Golden Horde. They were Muscovy, tax collectors. You don't deliver the taxes, you are killed. You are tortured. They, in turn, killed and tortured to collect the taxes. Until one day, blessed by St. Sergius, they were able to defeat the Golden Horde and turn it around. But H.L. Fisher said the character of the Russian people was forged in those years. They, they can endure terrible hardships for a long time, but under pressure, like steel, you know, the more you hit it, the stronger it becomes. You don't hit it, it's weak. So, the Swedes have discovered this, the French have discovered this, the Germans have discovered this. After Maidan, from an agricultural importer, they became a huge wheat exporter. And today, manufacturing has recovered in Russia with the help of China. So, this bitterness over the history of the Soviet Union is not possible for it to go away quickly. But to have clarity, these emotions must subside. And for them to subside, you must first have a ceasefire, then there's trade, then people meet, then they make friends, then they ask themselves, "Must we always be view each other as stress, or can we find ways to live together?" Then new possibilities re-emerge. You take, say, the relationship between China and Russia. They were daggers drawn. After Stalin died, Khrushchev repudiated Stalin. Mao was very angry because he felt that the Party was recapturing the revolution. In the '60s, Khrushchev was such a threat that Mao decided to distribute all the heavy industry all over China. And to today, cities like Chongqing and Chengdu and so on benefit from the fact that during those frightening years, they developed industrial capabilities and they built underground cities. Then the world got better, those underground cities became tourist sites. But China is again building underground cities which are much more advanced because they don't know whether they may be forced into a nuclear exchange. For America.
Talking about that, does war over Taiwan keep you up at night?
I, I'm, I'm not worried in the short term because the Americans know that they are not assured a victory because Taiwan is much closer to, to China than it is to the US. So, the Chinese can operate from land. The US operates from aircraft carriers, all of which are vulnerable to Chinese hypersonics. And even their base in Guam is completely within range. The US may threaten a nuclear exchange, but in a nuclear exchange, it's quite clear that China can destroy every major American city, even though they may lose all of their own. Furthermore, if there's war, TSMC will be destroyed, and Nvidia chips will not be available to Europe or to America. But China can get by without TSMC. Maybe 80%, maybe 90%, we're not sure. So, I don't think the people in the Pentagon or in Honolulu looking at war scenarios will want to go to war over Taiwan unless China provokes it, and China won't, because China feels that its strength is growing and that with time, like a ripened fruit, Taiwan will return to China.
Let's talk a little bit about the US. The US is going through a very volatile period with some political assassination with generally with great divide between the society. At the same time, I mean, here we are, here at the investment conference, the stock markets are at their peak or very close to it. Uh, when, as someone who has lived there, was educated there, how do you view today?
The US is the biggest drama on Earth, and it's a drama whose outcome will affect the entire world. If the US goes into decline, the effect will be more dramatic than the fall of Western Rome, or the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, or the Qing Dynasty. The Americans have legions everywhere. They have 800 military bases, 12 aircraft carrier battle groups. And for a period after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union, they thought of themselves as a new Rome. It cannot last. And whether it can last or not depends not only on external balance of forces but on America's own internal strength. The US is going through a wrenching period that, in many ways, the society is sick. The US of Alexis de Tocqueville, which was growing and vital and expanding organically. Today, you almost see a reverse dynamic. An Indonesian friend of mine making tires in China but could not export those tires to the US because of tariffs. So, they built a tire factory in South Carolina. So, recently I asked them how the factory was doing. I thought it must be doing very well with the tariffs. Says no. When they started recruiting workers, the HR manager asked them, "What level of criminality will you accept?" They said, "No, I don't want criminals." No. He said, "No, no, be realistic. This is manual work. You need the hands and legs. Be realistic." And when they conduct random urine tests, over half the workers test positive. So, when Trump bombs Venezuelan ports or goes after Mexico, there is, in fact, a realization that they have been poisoned. In the 19th century, the opium trade brought enormous fortunes to old wealth in New England, the Yankee Clipper trade to, to the British. Until today, many of the most important endowments to Ivy League colleges in the US came from profits from the opium war trade, from the opium trade. But can you blame the, the exporters of opium to China? Because the demand was there. Why was the demand there? Because in the 19th century, Chinese society was sick. And however hard you may blame Colombia and Venezuela and Central America and Mexico or China for fentanyl, why is there such a demand for painkillers in America? And for as long as you blame others and not yourself, the healing cannot begin. But there is a movement in America now, mostly right-wing, and they support Trump. And they recognize that if you don't get the family right, if you don't restore all values, if you do not see the the corrosiveness of work culture, then your society becomes sick. So, whether it is a phenomenon of Trump, and Trump is only a phenomenon, or Charlie Kirk, or whatever, American society is going through a period of internal struggle. If you can heal, you'll remain the greatest country on Earth because of its natural endowments, its island status, far away from everybody else, and the intelligence and creativity of its people and its research and academic institutions. But if you cannot resolve this internal struggle and they start demonizing one another and killing each other, one can envisage as a low likelihood possibility a scenario where there's a second civil war, and that will have potent consequences for the entire world. We are not crystal ball gazers. We just say, look, these are the possible scenarios. If it's this, who am I? If it's that, where am I? Is here, who am I? And then we place our bets accordingly. Never put all your chips on one number.
Let's talk about your own country, Singapore. You've often gone against the conventional wisdom, against the grain when deciding how to, how to, uh, organize the society. What economic model to apply, whether you go fully free market, or whether you become a country that is has a strong, uh, government involvement and, and strong socialism. How, how would you say Singapore has, what was the common denominator of your thinking as, as a leader in Singapore?
Lee Kuan Yew, the father of the country, he, he was a straightforward man. He was pragmatic. He knew that without power, you can't govern. And those who stood in his way, he just swept them aside. When culture threatened to infect us during the Vietnam War, drugs, he said, "If you have long hair, you'll be at the end of the queue." When the gravity infection came to Singapore, he said, "You do that with Keno. No gravity in Singapore." It's a good idea. We should consider it. Zagreb, when chewing gum was used to prevent train doors from shutting, paralyzing the entire system. He said, "Then chewing gum." So, he had a reputation for being authoritarian, and the Americans and the Europeans would come and chide him why he was not respecting human rights and so on. He just dismissed that. He told the Americans, "You want me to listen to you? You make me a 51st state, then I'll listen to you. But otherwise, we find our own way to the future because all these do-gooders and well-wishers, assuming they were doing good and wishing us really well, if something happens to us, they will just look back and say, 'Oh, too bad, such a,' but that's it. But we live there and we'll be the refugees, and we'll be the ones who suffer." So, yes, by all means, listen to advice, but decide for ourselves. So, in Singapore, we know we don't have such a beautiful coastline. We don't have pastures and vineyards. We don't work, we don't eat. And what does working mean? It means serving others. We don't service others, why should people give us money or lend us money? So, and if you do make money, save. If you make $100, save $50 because one day you may need more than $50. Don't take chances. So, that's what keeps the city-state vital and on the ball, not easily caught up in the latest fads and fancies. No, every other day we're told, "This is a miracle food, this a miracle diet, this is a miracle spa, whatever." You know, everyone wants a one-pill solution to their problems. There's no such thing in the world. So, in Singapore, we are very skeptical of magic formulas, magic this, magic that, miracle products. Just remember education, hard work, family, savings, serving others. You can't afford to deal with others on the basis that they must be like you. No, we begin on the basis that they are not like us. And because you're not like me, and you're not like me, I understand both of you. Ah, now I can arbitrage the two of you. So, Singapore, because of what it is, is a center of arbitrage, not just for goods and services, but also for money, for information, and most importantly, for culture. You know, when the, the Indonesian comes, they never tell you no. They find 99 ways to say no to you without having used the word "no." So, you've got to understand nuance. When an Australian or an American comes, well, yes is yes, no is no. So, if they don't say no, it's not a no. When you deal with the Chinese or with the Indians, they're different again. So, in Singapore, we have kind of an instinct to deal with different cultures, and that is important to us. It requires us, first, to accept the world for what it is, and don't think we can change the world, and be strict with ourselves.
Thank you. I have one, one more question before I open up for the Q&A. So, start if you have a question, start thinking about it. But one of your career highlights for me personally is the fact that you served as a member of the Vatican Economic Council under Pope Francis. If you had to extract one, maybe key leadership, uh, tenant that you have learned, maybe from the Pope directly or throughout your career as a, as a, as a leader, what would that be?
I remember one day we were discussing the Vatican deficit. The Vatican has a big deficit. And, you know, for those of you who are Catholics, in Catholic churches all over the world, one collection every month goes to the Vatican. It's called Peter's Pence, and it's for the Pope to decide how it is to be used. And many of us thought that, oh, the Pope will use it for charity. But in fact, a large chunk of it goes into meeting the Vatican deficit. And what is the main source of the deficit? Manpower, our cost. So, we sent up reports that look, you know, we got to cut down on manpower. He said, "Yes, yes, yes, we must cut down on the, the budget for human resources." But he laid down one constraint. He said, "There will be no retrenchment." We scratched our heads. You want to cut down manpower, of course, but there's no retrenchment? But it forced us to think and to see those whom we were thinking of retrenching as family members. How do we do it in a humane way? How do we redeploy them or help them retire earlier, but fairly? How do we restructure our jobs to make them more productive? How do we make more money from say, the Vatican Museum, the Sistine Chapel, or, uh, the photographs that you take with the Holy Father, which is a monopoly? How do you make more money from all these things to cover the deficit so that everybody becomes more productive? But because it was not just a management decision, but it was also a moral decision, both in terms of not having a deficit and in terms of not treating people as commodities, that forced us all to think. The easy solution is not always the best solution. The best solution is usually the hardest solution. And that is something which Pope Francis constantly reminded us. No, we would tell him, look, if you remove A, B, C, D, and E, all problems would be solved. He never removed them because they could be priests, they could be bishops, they could be cardinals. And his belief is, work on one another. Let the facts speak for themselves. If there's wrongdoing, well, there's a law which will take care of them. But if it's just bad behavior, do not lose hope in one another. You know, he, he kind of kept on pricking our conscience, you know, no, don't be. We have consultants, we are auditors, and so on. We have people who wielded sharp pencils and who knew where to cut and to extract more benefit. They understood all those things. But I said, in the end, don't forget who we are. Often reflected, and I still reflect on the fact that, yes, the Vatican is, is full of iniquities, you know, but the Buddhists have a saying that from the mud, from the worst mud, the most beautiful lotuses grew. And there are many lotuses blooming in the Vatican mud. And that's because deep in the organization is a set of moral beliefs which, even though often observed only in hypocrisy, remain there.
Interesting. Do we have a question from the audience? Yes, gentlemen over there. Microphone. Minister, you can stand up just briefly, introduce yourself and ask a question.
Oh, my name is Daniel Defeski. I'm part Croatian, part American. A lot of the things you said resonated, and thank you for taking the time to speak to everybody today. Um, I just wanted to ask you, kind of a link two parts of a linked question. As a country with a starting, if you, if you were in a country with a start, starting leadership substrate that was, you, you don't start with a coherent, like a cohesive leadership class, and you also don't start with deep expertise in statecraft, like you did, you executed in, in Singapore. What would you give as advice to start building that kind of the strategy to build those competencies and cohesiveness?
You build on what you have, the givens. So, we have an extraordinary location. If you look at the map of Eurasia, the southernmost tip, Singapore. So, all ships moving from east to west or west to east must round this corner. So, that established us as an entrepreneur. When the British came, the East India Company, their philosophy was free trade. So, they protected property, they enforced contracts, they kept the peace. And very quickly, people came to the conclusion, if I go to Singapore, I can sell dearer, I can buy cheaper, I can get my contracts enforced, I lower my risk of financing. So, within a few years, talent, money flowed in. We inherited this culture of trade and openness from the British. But they never expected us to become a country. And the Chinese, the Malays, the Indians in Singapore, they owed their loyalties to their motherlands, to their ancestral workplaces. But after the Second World War, in the new age of nationalism, we had to develop our own identity. But that identity cannot deny our origins as Chinese, as Indians, as Christians, as Buddhists, as Hindus, as Muslims. So, it has to be a meta-identity which respects individuality, but at the same time requires of all the ethnic groups a higher loyalty. And when we bring in new citizens, and as a member of parliament, I have to give them citizenship certificates, I tell them, whether or not you come from Myanmar or Indonesia or Japan or wherever, please do not cut links to where you came from because every one of those links is precious to us. You bring to the family a bigger network. But you are in the family now. So, you must respect those who are not like you. So, if you are Christian, you must respect Buddhists and Hindus. If you are Chinese, you must respect Indians and others. So, in this way, Singapore becomes a city larger than itself by being having a spirit and a mentality much bigger than our geographical size. But everyone has to work from somewhere. So, you're in Croatia. You have a long history. There was an opportunity in history. You got your independence. You've become homogeneous. Got a wonderful coastline. So far, it appears as if the earthquakes are confined to your neighboring Bosnia and not in your own country. So, okay, so you build from here, but you do not want to be a prisoner of Brussels or of the US or the region. You also want to reach out to an Asia which should become more and more important in your lives. So, in a, in a certain way, Croatia and Singapore share a kindred spirit, and maybe that's what the part, the reason why M goes to Singapore very often, and boy, this is my third and certainly not my final visit to Croatia.
Excellent. Thank you for the question. Any other questions? Young gentleman over there.
Hello. Thank you for a great talk. My name is Morris Pak, from Creation Institute of Public Health. I have a question which is non, not health-related. I'm interested in what do you think about Bitcoin as a digital capital, and how do you think it will affect the geopolitics in the world?
I'm a skeptic on Bitcoin. The reason is this. Marco Polo, in his memoirs, expressed surprise when he entered China to find paper currency used. The Venetians, being Venetians, only trusted gold. Said, "How can you trust a piece of paper?" He had a big chop on it, the emperor's chop. Then he realized that the emperor can kill you. So, so, in other words, he can honor his paper because he can take from anybody to to give value to the paper currency. The Chinese had paper currency before that, during the Song Dynasty, fiat currency is backed by coercion. I must be able to tax you or to take from you so that the paper I issue has value. If a banana republic issues you a banana piece of paper and says this is worth $100 US, you'll laugh at it. But if it's a green bag, you say, "Oh, they've got military bases." Yeah, it's good. It's good for a long time. China, yes. Singapore, no. Why? A small country. But for this reason, Singapore does not issue currency the way others do. We have a currency pot. Every dollar we issue must be backed either by gold or by hard currency. It's 100% backed. More than 100% backed. But, oh, okay. The money is there. It's okay. I believe you because I believe in what is backing your dollar. So, when Croatia had its own currency, if you didn't peg it, people won't trust it. Even if you peg it, they say, "But something may happen. Who's backing it?" So, the interest rates were higher. So, now you join the Euro, the interest rate goes down, people are happier, but you lose some autonomy. Now, when you come to Bitcoin, there's no anonymity. That's quite clear, despite what the founder said. From time to time, we read reports of North Korea hacking into Bitcoin. Now, think about this. If North Korea can hack into Bitcoin, do you think Russia can hack into Bitcoin? Do you think China can hack it? Do you think America can hack it? Of course, they can. So, for as long as the game, the music is playing, it's okay. We are playing short-term, but can it endure? Can it coerce like the great K? No. But for the time being, why not? Long-term, I rather trust gold.
Very interesting answer. Any other questions from the audience? Don't be shy. This is now a great opportunity. Maybe on that note, but connected to Bitcoin, how do you view the U, the US dollar and the future of it?
You know, Trump, Trump is obsessed with the midterms. He knows his popularity is going down. Charlie Kirk's murder has become a big issue because it seems like an opportunity to take away votes from the Democrats. But now the right itself, the right wing itself is divided partly over what's happening in Gaza. Why did Rubio go to Israel? Was it just a good visit to say hello to Netanyahu and to go to the Wall? What were they discussing when Israel attacked Hamas in Qatar? I don't think the Qataris would have taken it lying down. I think they would have threatened America one way or another to the extent that they can. And the biggest threat to America is, you can no longer have El Udeid Air Base in Qatar. That is the single most important military facility America has in the entire Middle East. What do the Qataris want? And Iran, after the American strike, the problem is still unresolved, and Israel still wants regime change. So, when Rubio went to Israel, I thought some things are afoot. This adds a further division to American society. Overhanging all this is a huge US deficit, and Powell was keeping it tight, but now he says in the latest report, the US economy is not doing so well, so he's decided to loosen. But he said inflationary pressure is still there. Is there a possibility of stagflation in the US? Trump worrying about the midterms, he wants the Fed to loosen. If inflation comes, that's a future problem. He won't be around. So, this, this are the current considerations in the US. And again, there's no crystal ball. We just say, okay, if this, then if that, then this. I think we just look at all the possibilities and worry about all the possibilities, and then place our bets accordingly.
Thank you very much. Um, unfortunately, this conversation could go much longer if it was up to me, but we are out of time, and we're the last thing keeping you from lunch. So, I hope you really enjoyed this session. I want to thank you, George, for joining us here in Rovinj. Thank you for this fascinating conversation. Please be back after lunch at 3 pm. We're going to start with an equally interesting agenda. Thank you.