Transcription
What's going on everyone? We knew this week was going to be a crazy one, and today's action just added more fuel to the fire. The market technically made new all-time highs today, but investors started selling out hard in the final two hours of trading. Keep in mind, this is happening as we're entering into the second biggest earnings week of the season. We are currently already in the second longest uptrend over the past 26 years, and Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow before the market opens. It's a great time to be a trader. Stick with us today. We have a lot to cover.
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We are going streaking right now, as the NASDAQ has closed 60 straight days above its 20-day moving average. The largest uh streak since 1999, right before the dot bubble, so watch out. Uh, no, it did actually rise a little bit following this, and we will go back and take a look at that. But before we do that, let's look at the current streak because this has been quite the run that the NASDAQ has been on. Now, of course, they're talking about closing above the 20-day moving average. Some of these came very close, like on June 20th, 2025. Uh, the close obviously was just above the 20-day moving average there. Um, but this streak has been going on since April 23rd. This is a historic run, and I'm really glad to see the market moving like this, especially coming off of all the tariff issues that were plaguing the market in early April. So, this is a pretty historic streak. And let's go back and see like, kind of what happened the last time that this streak ended, 'cause it's really not the best thing, at least in the short term. We can see before in 1999, there was actually a 77-day streak, and once the streak ended, it did actually bring in a little bit of downtrend. Here we can see the NASDAQ downtrended for a few weeks following this. Now, it did end up going up to end that year and ended up having a pretty good early 2000, but uh, as we know, the dot bubble ended up coming in a little bit later, but in the immediate short term, it does bring some selling in as well. Yeah.
And we can see historically speaking, when you have such extended streaks like we are having now, the market does tend to pull back in a historical sense. So, as we can see, normally we do see a pullback. And what I really don't like is that when we look at the percentage of the time where the market is positive after it's been above its 20-day moving average for so long, it's, it's very little. Like, we could see one and two days later, it's 44% of the time. And when you look at it three days later, it's only 11% of the time where it ends up in the green. And then you could also see that the average returns tend to get decently bearish as well. So, this is something to keep in mind going forward. But Tom, when we look at, let's say, the market right now, how much more room do we have left until we might actually see a break below this 20-day moving average?
Looking at the S&P 500, a little bit closer, specifically the S&P, which is the true S&P 500 index. It is above this 20-day moving average by quite a bit. Now, of course, if this, if the S&P continues to rise, the moving average is going to rise, too, kind of like what we've been seeing uh play out here in the short term. Now, I would say if we start to see a pullback, it would probably take a couple of trading days to get there, unless we do get some type of massive drop. Um, now, there could be a massive drop that comes. Who knows? You know, Jerome Powell is going to be speaking tomorrow, which we'll get into in just a little while. But whenever I look at like the S&P here, I'm going to get pretty worried if we start to see a pullback back below 6100. Uh, if we start to get back below there, I'm definitely going to be looking for the trends to start to shift back down a little bit. Uh, this was a pretty big level on the S&P. We can see going back over the past couple weeks and over the past few months, uh, this was a very big area of resistance. This should now act as a good support level. If we do get that pullback to around $6,100, we can see going to the S&P daily chart that that would be well below that 20-day moving average. So, I would think over the next few trading days, if we start to see more of a pullback come in, I think we could end up getting under that actually pretty quickly. So, I don't think that there's much time left, but going back and just looking at the data, it's tough to say that, right? Because a lot of the data suggests that we're going to get a drop in the short term. It doesn't necessarily mean though that we're going to break below that moving average. So, uh, it, you know, it's a little confusing whenever you look at the data like that, Mike, but I think it just, it goes to show that there could be a short-term pullback that truly does get us to break below here fairly easily.
In my opinion, what makes this time around so unique, but also so exciting, is that yes, the market has is on a record streak right now where it's been above this moving average for 60 days. But we also know like in 1999, uh, it actually had a streak that lasted 77 days. But heading this into this time around, we're like this event is happening as we are heading into the second biggest earnings week of the entire season. As we can see from this data here, 23% of the S&P 500's market cap reports earnings this week. And we have companies like Tesla, Google, Intel, Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, and so many other stocks set to report. And as we know, these stocks certainly have the ability to move the the market quite a bit. So, basically, it seems like this earnings uh season is going to have a big intensifying effect on the short-term price action.
I 100% agree. This is going to be a huge earnings season to keep this overall momentum alive, right? And some of these stocks are honestly not having the best time in the short term, like Tesla. You know, I know that we've talked about that one a lot, but analyst expectations don't seem too good on that one. And I know uh that others might be faring a little bit better in the short term, but some of these definitely do worry me. And with the market just being up so high, it worries me that these reports are going to have to really wow traders, right? Like we're going to have to bust through expectations. Like if they're just, you know, normal reports and Google comes out and just has like mixed data or something like that, I feel like that it's not going to be the best sign for the market. And I will be worried for more of like a pullback to come in maybe back down to like that $6,100 uh support there. But going back to the earnings calendar a little closer. You know, I know that we've looked at this one quite a bit already. Uh, I'm definitely liking Tesla, but I even think that like Intel is a little bit underrated on Thursday, Mike. Uh, tomorrow, I know Coca-Cola is going to be reporting along with a whole bunch of defense stocks. And I know defense stocks have been on the radar a lot recently, of course, with the whole Russia-Ukraine situation, but also with everything going on in the Middle East.
Yeah. And like whether you're looking at Lockheed Martin, Intel, Tesla, or any other stock, I think it's really worth uh keeping in mind that the market made it very clear that this earnings season is an earnings season where good isn't necessarily good enough. Look what happened to Netflix. They reported good earnings, and their stock fell quite a bit on their earnings day. Their stock fell by 5% alone. So, as we uh head into the rest of these big earnings reports, uh, we really need to see these numbers, you know, blow out expectations. So, that is important to keep in mind. And like when we look closer at the SPY right now, uh, and we look at what is actually causing this drop, I was looking at the heat map today, and there weren't any stocks that like truly stood out in a bearish way. Like, of course, we can see Nvidia was rough, and a handful of other stocks, you know, had, you know, strong moves to the downside, but what I think it is more so than anything else is the lack of true bullishness. Like there are no stocks on this heat map that are really standing out in a bullish way. So I think investors right now are just saying, you know what, the market's at all-time highs. We're heading into a giant earnings week. We have the reciprocal tariff deadline set to expire on August 1st. We're in one of the longest uptrends over the past 26 years. So, I'm going to lock in some profits, and it looks like uh the market's finally starting to reflect that.
Definitely. And I thought especially around the end of the day today, like specifically the last hour to two hours of trading, we started to see a lot of stocks truly sell off there. Whenever I'm like looking at the SPY, um, I really like this support today right around 62820 to 628. I think this is definitely going to be an area that, you know, we start to look at over the next couple trading days if we start to really pull below that low from this morning. I think traders might end up selling off the SPY tomorrow. So, be careful like if we open up under that 62820 area, and you know, we have some bad news coming through, whether it be from like defense stocks or maybe from Jerome Powell speaking or something of that nature. I'm definitely going to be watching for more of a pullback. And I think that 628 will be a very big level for tomorrow. So that's why I'm emphasizing that one so much here. I think that 62625 would be a pretty nice support once we start to break below there if you're looking for like a target or something like that to the downside. I know 62450 has had a lot of action the past few weeks as well, which is the next big area of support right there. So that's pretty much like the whole SPY rundown for tomorrow as far as the price action from today and levels for the downside. As far as levels to the upside, Mike, I really like 62950 and then the high of day up around 63150 as some resistances if the SPY tries to get a run going again.
Interesting. And one other thing that is um, like when we look at SPY that's not a specific level, but it is a pattern that is certainly sticking out, is if you go to like a 30-minute or one-hour chart and you look at how the market was moving towards the end of June, you can see that those new breaks of like all-time highs were very defined. They were momentum driven, and the market was moving in a clear, defined, strong way. And the market is technically still moving up. Like we technically made new all-time highs today, but we can see not only today, but over the past few weeks, the market is moving in a different way where it's like, yes, we're making new all-time highs, but it's much choppier. It's much slower. And we're seeing a dynamic where the market pops up to new all-time highs, but then it gets, you know, sold off in like a decent way. And what I think this is truly a reflection of is just the amount of euphoria that we saw back towards the end of June is starting to decrease, and we're just starting to see more and more profit taking. And I think as a short-term trader, this is something that you have to pay attention to because, you know, while it's been great to ride this bull wave higher, you know, you also have to adapt when the time comes to the downside as well.
So Tom, you mentioned a lot of great levels. I'm going to keep those close on watch. And I think it also says a lot how, you know, some of the hottest tickers in the short term, like let's say Ethereum, for example, is still holding up fine, but it is slowing down as well, like um, you know, like it didn't have nearly as bad of a pullback as SPY, but we are seeing a little bit of profit taking there as well, and again, I think it reinforces the fact that, you know, investors are becoming like a little bit more protective right now.
Yeah, I would agree. Ethereum pulled back pretty hard as well. Well, I know like you said, not as hard as the SPY, but that pullback end of day is definitely concerning for tomorrow. And I know that there's going to be a lot of price action tomorrow morning, at least if Jerome Powell starts saying something, right? Uh, but Jerome Powell is set to speak one hour before the market opens. He's giving opening remarks at the integrated review of the Capital Framework for large banks conference in Washington D.C. They always have quite the name for these conferences, Mike. Uh, they're always like a paragraph long. But either way, one hour before the market opens tomorrow, be ready for the big man. This is not an FOMC event. It's not going to be something where, you know, we're going to hear about interest rates changing or anything like that, unless Powell mentions, you know, maybe something that they might do in the future. But nonetheless, anytime Jerome Powell speaks, it needs to be on the radar. And then also just looking at the lineup for the rest of the week. Wednesday, we have existing home sales and durable goods orders on Friday as well. But I think the big man speaking this week's probably the biggest economic event.
Yeah, I would say so. And you have to like days where he speaks before the market even opens because, you know, then we get the uh big catalyst right out of the way. And especially if he says something that spooks the market a little bit, you know, you can have some really great momentum driven price action. So definitely pay attention to the news tomorrow, especially one hour before open. This can certainly have a meaningful impact.
And another thing that I definitely wanted to bring up is that in a broader sense, it's worth paying attention to what the market is telling everyone right now. Because if you look at gold and Bitcoin, but even silver and Ethereum, they're telling you all you need to know. Uh, basically, we are seeing a ton of money flow into these safe haven uh assets because they're like the ultimate hedge against inflation, sanctions, global uncertainty, and, you know, just a lot of the problems we're seeing in the world right now. So, as the market is a little bit shaky, I think it really, you know, sticks out how something like SLV popped up by 2% today and made a new recent high. So it looks like we're still seeing a lot of money just flow into safety. And I, you know, I really wanted to point this out. I know we've been very bullish on silver for quite a while now, but um, again, it's always good to keep close on watch, even though it it doesn't have as much hype as something like uh Ethereum or some of these other crazy recent tickers.
Definitely. But the options definitely can still have some great momentum and some great moves there as well. I know like silver only popped up 2.14% today, but you know, going over to like the options chain and let's say you just look at this week, July 21st, 2025's expiration. Some of these options like the 35 strike calls popped up 350% today. The 34.5 strikes popped up 229%. So definitely keep silver on the radar. I know it seems like a slow mover, but it has some pretty good moves in the short term. And I'm Mike, I really can't wait for some of these uh other like announcements later in the week too. Maybe even like related to crypto, you know, like we've been hearing a lot of news and a lot of good things coming from the Trump administration. So hopefully we keep getting, you know, that that more uh more hype coming in. Looking at Bitcoin a little bit. It has been consolidating up at the top. Not near as fun as I would say uh gold and silver has been.
All right, Tom. Let's jump right into some setups and predictions then. And my first setup is a setup that some people really aren't going to like. It is Robin Hood, and it is to the downside. So, this stock has been crushing it, but we definitely saw a fair amount of selling come into play today as it fell by 5%. Um, I'm looking for this one for a potential move lower, where the more pressure it puts on these intraday lows, the better the downside setup becomes. Basically, we have seen a situation with Robin Hood where the stock has just exploded over the past year. Basically, from the beginning of 2025 till now, the stock went from like $40 a share up to, you could say, $15. And the further you zoom out, the crazier it gets. Over the past few years, the stock went from like $12 to $115. Uh, it's very overextended. People have gotten very greedy with it. And I'm looking for a type of pullback just like we saw in February with this one. We could see it had that nice long extended uptrend, and then once the tide started to turn, everyone rushed to the exit all at once, and it sold off hard for a few weeks. That's the setup I'm looking at for this time around. In the worst-case scenario, where Robin Hood just continues its massive uptrend, then okay, the play loses, and it stops out, let's say, around like $107.60 or so. And you know, you can certainly customize that to your risk tolerance. Um, but I think the risk is worth the reward, and it's definitely a stock that is close on my radar.
Yeah, the risk-reward could be set up in a ton of different ways here. Like you could maybe even throw a stop above like the recent high, and you know, if you wanted to target like a true downtrend, you know, you could, you could spread it out even more. But I like keeping it a little bit tighter myself. This is definitely a play that is very overextended. I'll be watching it very closely to see if this does continue over the next few trading days.
With my first setup, I'm looking at Qualcomm for a breakout to the upside. Looking at it on the daily chart, I really like the support that Qualcomm has been bouncing off of here in the short term, right around 151.50 to 152. It's bounced off of this a lot of times in the past. There's been a lot of price action right around this range. I'm also looking for it to get up to at least this recent peak of 162, if not even closer to that true peak there, 164. Uh, those are some pretty big resistances, but looking at it on the book map specifically for tomorrow, there is a major resistance at 160 in the short term. We can see that there's a lot of sellers stacked there. It's around 20,000 shares. Now, Qualcomm is not a Tesla or Apple, right? There's not generally millions of shares stacked up at the larger levels, but nonetheless, 20,000 shares. It's a pretty significant spot for Qualcomm, and I love the X-ray vision here to be able to identify it. There we go.
Sounds good. And I will keep a close eye on 160. That level certainly sticks out when you look at this stock's book map. So, good stuff there. Another ticker that is close on watch is SLV, and it is to the upside. Again, I know we've mentioned this one so much to the upside over the past year, but it's still definitely on the bullish radar. There have been a handful of big money plays with this one. I know they are crushing it. And as we continue to see um, you know, people around the world protect themselves from currency debasement, um, assets like silver, gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others certainly have a lot to gain. So, either way, SLV is on my bullish radar in more of a short-term trading sense. A stop loss can always be set uh right around like that just below that $35 support. Again, this can be tailored to how open you are to adverse price movement. Of course, if you're open to, you know, giving the stock more room, you can expand it past uh, you know, below 35. Uh, whereas, if you're not as open to risk, you can always keep the stop tighter. But either way, SLV is on the bullish radar. It has to be with the way it's been moving and with the way it's starting to break above recent highs once again. It is fantastic. So, I will be watching it as well.
And with this next stock, I just had to mention this one today. It is Open Door. Open Door. This stock went insane today, up well over 100% at one point. It had a 10-minute volatility halt as it started to die off at the end of the day. Now, this is going to be a stock that I'm not necessarily going to pick any single direction with this one. As we can see today, especially going to like a five-minute chart, it was all over the board. So, if we start to see, let's say, some good meaningful price action, let's just say it breaks above $5. Let's say that you identify a really good intraday move, maybe above resistance here at $3.60. There might be some breakout opportunity and some some potential plays with Open Door. It just, I had to throw it on the radar for tomorrow. It had a lot of crazy price action in the short term. There's a lot of traders that are keeping their eyes on this one. So, if we could like get a meaningful move back above like $3.60. If you want to be safer, maybe even wait for $4 to break. I feel like that there could be a possible move back towards $5. But I will say with this one, high risk comes high reward. And the risk on this one could probably be pretty high, probably too high for many people out there. And like another thing too, is we know this stock is trending in a very strong way. That doesn't mean you have to trade it to the upside either. For example, if the stock just starts slamming through support levels, you can always play the downside move as well. And a lot of times the downside moves are much more violent than the upside moves. And in a trading sense, if you can catch that, that can be pretty good. And you could just look at today's price action as a great evidence of that. So, either way, good stuff there, Tom. I will keep this one close on watch as well. And when you see 42% moves uh in a day, it's, it's hard not to watch it. And that's after the drop, too. So, good stuff there.
And let's jump right into today's momentum plays. And with the first one, we have Nvidas, ticker symbol NVTS, to the upside. Yeah, we called this one out yesterday, and it exploded today, up 24%. So, we're going to be watching it again for tomorrow. It's sitting right at $9.50 50 cents at its high of day today. So, if it can break 950, watch it back up.
All right, with the next one, we have B2 Gold, ticker symbol BTG, also to the upside. BTG's had a lot of good price action today, too. It's pretty low price for a gold stock. If it can break above $3.50, watch it up as well.
And then with the last one, we have the big boy, Nvidia, ticker symbol NVDA, to the downside. Yeah, unfortunately, Nvidia actually had a pretty rough day today, and they're sitting right around $171 in after hours. If they can break under that low of after hours, right at 170.90, then watch them down.
Sounds good. So, we have these three plays on the radar for potential continuations tomorrow if and only if they break through the levels listed. Remember to trade smart, have stop losses, know why you're trading what you're trading, and of course, only risk what you're willing to lose. You can learn about all of these uh smart trading habits and much more for free in the key lessons channel of the stock discord. So definitely check that out. But besides that, let's jump right into today's $3 million big money trade.
And Tom, we have another CWEB big money trade. Today's is with the 44 strike call options for January 16th of 2026. Um, this is coming shortly after the uh $7.8 million trade for the 42 strike call options that was uh mentioned on July 15th. So, two back-to-back big money trades here. CWEB is a 2x leveraged uh ETF on Chinese internet stocks. So, basically, this is kind of like a high-risk, high-reward play. I like how these options are at least one of them is in the money. The other one is very close to the money. They have a fair amount of time to them. And basically, we have been seeing the relationship between the United States and China get better and better, at least in a short-term relative sense. Either way, uh, these, this stock has been doing pretty well. Uh, looking at it going out, I definitely think it's an interesting trade, and I am very excited to see how it ends up doing, and, you know, there have been uh, there's been a lot of bullish action with this one lately.
There definitely has. I really like how in the short term there is this double top that it had previously broken here over the past couple of weeks. I really like that 4240 resistance, and once that broke, I think that that kind of shows that CWEB could start to run a bit more. I thought today was just a nice consolidation day for CWEB. It's still holding well above that like 42 to 4230, 4240 uh previous resistance, which is now going to act as support. So I'll be watching that very closely over the next couple trading days. I actually like the way that it's setting up here. And with it breaking that resistance, that's where I really feel like a better run could start to come in. Like it was stuck under that resistance for a long time before the breakout finally happened.
Yeah. And it was very nice to see that breakout, too. So, let's keep a close eye on this one. They have a fair amount of time to the trade as well, so it'll definitely be an exciting one to keep close on watch. So, good stuff there. And if you're new to the channel, make sure to subscribe so you can see big money trades just like this one every single day. We post all the time. Not only do we cover big money trades, but also daily SPY levels, important news, information, economic events, and basically everything you need to know about the stock market every single day. When you subscribe, you'll get our videos recommended to you more often. And we also want to give a giant shout out to today's member of the day, Jake, in the Stocked Up Discord, who made some uh good money today, especially with NVTS this morning. So, huge shout out to you, Jake. Keep up the great work going forward, and it is awesome to see gains like these. If you are into short-term trading, definitely check out that first link in the description in the comments down below to get in on the action. The stock trading floor gives you access to our army of custom trading bots, weekly live events, daily big money plays. You can chat with Tom and myself all day long. Access the exclusive SM chat and all of our other tools, features, and resources. It's the place to be for short-term trading, and you can save quite a bit with coupon code big money. It opens up the lowest price possible for the yearly plan. And today's Surgebot action was pretty great, where we had two 300% plays and one 272% play uh with those S call options as well. You can guys, you guys can see the full list there. But either way, it's a place to be. Definitely check out that link down below. Uh, don't forget Powell is set to speak one hour before the market opens tomorrow, and we are heading into the second biggest week of the earnings season. So, it's a great time to be a trader. Thank you all so much for watching, and let's crush it in the market tomorrow.