Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are feeling good. I am very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Tuesday, September 30, 2025, with a crypto market that is a little bit red. It's not very, very nice because it's the last day of the month here in September, where the monthly candle will close tonight at 2 AM, and it's red. So, I did a big monthly analysis on Saturday about what this could imply. Don't hesitate to go watch it. On the other hand, the week is starting well because Bitcoin ETFs bought $518 million worth of BTC. Ethereum ETFs bought $546 million. Wow, those are big numbers, especially for Ethereum ETFs. Well, for now, okay, yesterday was a good day, today we'll look at it. So, the market is slightly fearful today. Thus, a small red candle which is not very pretty here on the altcoins, I told you. Why? Because we just broke back below the 50-day moving average, the average price of altcoins over the last 50 days, $828 billion. It's a shame because it was going up, it was going up, we would have wanted a small green candle like this that breaks through, that plays, and then it went to seek the upper Bollinger band at $926 billion, so we could have had a nice rise of about 10%, and here it's a rejection, not pretty, really without any respect, the rejection by the Tenkan, the 50-day moving average. So if the altcoins close here below $828 billion, the 50-day moving average, it doesn't look very good. We might visit the duo here, which is the lower Bollinger band and the Kumo's SSB at $789 billion. So, you're going to tell me, "Okay, Foufi, when is the end?" Well, if we get a red candle like this that breaks the lower Bollinger band, it's going to get messy, it'll be ugly, you see. So let's hope it doesn't get too ugly. Unfortunately, the structure, I repeat myself every day, I know, I'm sorry, it's been the same since August, since early August, that every day, I think I say the same thing. Little A, little B, little C, these structures. Once it's done, it's over, it's heading for the end, heading for the gates of hell which are there. Well, we can just take a little tour. The gates of hell open here, take a little tour. Hello. Oh, it's hot here. And we leave. We can leave directly. A structure, once validated, poof, it can explode. After, some can, you see, we can go into the gates of hell here, say hello, how are you? And the gates close, and then it will be the end. That is to say, a much stronger correction. Well, for now, what we have is corrective. Corrective, what does that mean? When you have an upward channel like this, well, it's not very pretty. It has a higher probability of breaking downwards, unfortunately. So you see impulse, correction, continuation. Impulse, correction, well, at some point, there will be continuation. So this is not a very bullish structure, we are not surprised, it goes in the direction of the larger structure which is unfortunately still a bit to be scraped, you see. Knowing that the altcoins were rejected without any respect by the 50 RSI. So we are returning to the bear zone. Well, it's not great. So, our beloved Bitcoin, what does it tell us? It tells us, "Well, first of all, there's a gap. There's this gap at $110,990." On social media, I also sent you earlier this afternoon to show you that there's a large liquidity cluster to be sought below. Well, quite a few things too. The fact that yesterday was a very green day. Open interest exploded upwards by several billion dollars. And so, okay, these are open positions, we don't know if they are shorts, if they are longs. If they are shorts, it's good news. Unfortunately, when the funding rates all went up, it means longs were opened. So it means lots of longs were opened. Between Sunday's and Monday's candles, we had longs that were opened. Where are their stop losses? Well, most of them are here, you see, just behind the last little wick. So the big leverages have their stops closer, but the smaller leverages, further down. Well, so for now, we are still following the structure, that is to say, well, little A, little B. Will little B last? That is to say, well, here, we have little A, a little B that can be done like this, then a little C to make an A, a B, a C, and finally break. So, either it will last, which is what I call income number 2, or it's number 1, which is basically little A, little B, boom, little C, it will fall directly to seek $107,000. So if it falls directly to seek the gap at $110,000, you see, well, it will surely go below $107,283 to finally validate this structure that started on August 14th. You see, it doesn't make us younger. It's been a month and a half. So that's the idea for now. If Bitcoin closes below its Kijun here at $113,410 tonight, it won't be very good. It would mean that it increases the probabilities that it will go to seek this gap. If the Kijun holds well tonight, maybe tomorrow we can hope for a rebound. That is to say, it will just continue to seek the short zone a bit and then maybe it will deal with the gap. Well, everything hinges on the Kijun tonight. The Kijun is here, it's also sitting on the 50 RSI. So if it loses the Kijun, it loses the 50 RSI. It's off to the bottom for everything. If it holds its little Kijun at $113,000, it holds the 50 RSI which is there, and it will rebound and then it will attack the short zone again. Knowing that the bears are getting a little tired in terms of liquidations. Well, where will it turn to go seek shorts up to $116,000, you see, to just seek this little mountain here, for a good little cluster here. Yum yum, this one is good. On the other hand, if it says, "No, I'm not interested, I prefer what's below because if it goes to $116,800, it doesn't even have 4 billion to eat." On the other hand, if it goes to seek $106,000, it has, let's say, 8.5 to 9 billion, you see, twice as much. So if it decides to say, "No, I prefer to go down," boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. It will seek the gap up to here, the big leverages are up to the gap. And will it validate the structure right after? It will remain very possible for Ethereum. So for now, it is losing its Tenkan. If tonight it closes below here, around $4,150, well, it's not very good news. So it's losing this little support and therefore it will go seek the Bollinger band at $3,867. Again, the structure is quite corrective, what we have here. Corrective, well, that means it's a zigzag, a zigzag, a small upward channel. So be careful, these are not the most bullish structures to continue, you see. Well, so it can do a little A, a little B, a little C. Could it crash now? Well, it remains possible, unfortunately for Ethereum. Anyway, it has started a large structure. We'll have to be patient. But well, it allows those who want to DCA. We have here a wave A which is perhaps still ongoing. We'll see if it continues to break the low. Still wave A. And when wave A finishes, however, there will be a big wave B which will be an upward B that will last many weeks. That might be the bottom and the top, you see, you want. Well, but the problem is that we don't know if wave A is finishing for now. Well, it's losing the Tenkan. There was a big support here at $4,139. If it closes below $4,139, even, well, that will become resistance, it will be less pretty. Well, we don't blame it because the problem is that there have been a lot of longs placed in the last two days, you see. So if Ethereum wants to take down a bit, it can go up to $4,000. Around $4,400, you see. Damn, around $3,4360, exactly $4,360 to eat a bit of all that. Yum yum yum yum. But here, it looks like it rather wants to attack here where there is a big leverage, look up to $4,039. That's that's caviar for it, you see. And then after the caviar, you have the lobster that arrives right after, which is around $3,930, and if it wants dessert, well, dessert, it will go up to $3,850. That's the idea. And if it's still hungry and wants a little digestif, well, it can go up to $3,692. Be careful because there are more than $6 billion at $3,692. Whereas if it goes to seek, for example, $4,360, there are about 2 billion, a little more than 2 billion. So you see the difference between the two. Well, so for now, be prudent. Uh, Solana, so it's seeking its gap today. Bravo! Gap closed at $206. I'm removing it. Very good, no surprise. Well, it's not great because it lost its 50-day moving average here at $209. So if it closes tonight below $209, it's likely to sting a bit to go seek its lower band at $192, or even lower. It's being rejected by the Tenkan. It's a shame, being rejected by the Tenkan for those who do this like Solana here, like uh uh Bitcoin here, you see. And well, no, it's okay because the Tenkan is a weak resistance. It's the average price over the last 9 days, it's very weak, but well, it shows that ultimately the bulls are not really there. And what I also showed you this weekend is that, well, unfortunately, the rise we had, well, it's driven more by futures. You see, why? Because you have an indicator called CVD. This measures a bit the spot demand, the buying demand. And so when you have this, I will share more and more things like this with you, even if it's a bit complicated, but I will always try to simplify it, is that when you have a market that is rising, a price that is rising, but behind it you have open interest that is rising in futures, funding rates that are rising, and CVD, which is spot, that is flat, it simply means that the rise is driven by liquidations on futures and not by people buying. Of course, there are always people buying a little, but not enough. That's not what's making everything go up. In a perfect world, what would it be? Basically, imagine a world where futures don't exist. It goes up, it goes down only for sales and purchases. Then it would be much easier to read. Okay, it's going up, it means people are buying. It's going down, it means people are selling. The problem is that you have a lot of derivatives behind that influence everything. So. Well, quick updates. So, for Solana, well, it has its structure. This is also corrective, you see. An upward channel. As long as it stays in a channel like everyone else, it can zigzag for a few more days if it wants. Boom! This is corrective. These are rather bearish structures, these kinds of structures have a higher probability of breaking downwards, unfortunately. Can it break upwards? Yes, with a special catalyst, but it has a much higher probability of breaking downwards, so it's not very pretty. After, Solana, well, it had, it had, it had taken quite a bit of liquidity here with its little rebound. You see, when it had risen well, it had eaten well, this little cluster here. It had eaten quite a bit. Now, it had also left quite a few small clusters below. We see that there is something to eat, well, up to $180, $190, or even $185. There is about 1 billion, 1.3 billion, 4 billion, you see. So if it starts to attack, it's heading for $200, or even dessert at $194. Then it starts to attack this whole big chunk here. Well, there is also something to eat to the north, up to $225. You see, there is indeed that, $221 exactly, but it can still continue. But here there is a small hole. I'm not sure it wants to go there because this hole cost a lot to market makers to fill this hole to uh to pass this when there is nothing, it will cost them money to push when there is nothing to liquidate in there. You see, well, so Solana, similarly, doesn't breathe mega bullishness. At best, it will continue this channel a bit like its peers, but at some point, it will unfortunately break downwards, exactly like Ethereum. It can continue this channel a bit. At some point, it will break downwards. And to finish, XRP, it went to seek its gap at $286. Very good, I'm removing it. It's the gap that was made between Friday on the CME and Monday for us on the spot. And so, if XRP closes below its Tenkan at $285, well, it's rather bearish. It's not great. We can say it will go seek its lower Bollinger band at $2.71 and break $2.71 and the end. Well, uh, XRP, similarly, this little channel is corrective, but it's a small channel. So when they are small channels, they won't go very low. Okay? A small channel like this can fall to seek the gap, for example, at $252. But if, for example, you had a big channel like this, then yes, then you would say it can really go down. But these are small channels, so it's okay, there won't be a big correction of the end. Well, so as long as it stays in a small channel, yes, there is a higher probability for the descent. And so, does it want to attack? It has already started to attack the big leverage. You see it here, it started, it was Tuesday, well, it was today at 4:06 PM, it started to attack the big leverage. It ate the big leverages, you see, when it's like this, it's the big leverages, you see. It ate the big leverages up to about 2.41. Does it want to attack here, the main plate, because here it was the entry, that's all. The main plate which goes up to $2.77 and the dessert which can go up to $2.74, or even a bit lower. Dessert, it can go up to $2.60 even. There is $300 million. It remains possible. Now, to the north, there is a big package here. To the north, there is still a big package. So if it decides to take this down, maybe seek the gap at $252, but after that, I think it will seek the gap at $252, which is here, the gap is here. After that, it will take care of what's to the north because there is also a lot of liquidity to the north. Well, that's a bit for today. Now, regarding Wall Street, it's a bit mixed, but Nvidia is still pushing with this madness, it's really madness that it's pushing so much. Well, but Nvidia, it's going up, it's going up, what can you do? Well, but it's Nvidia that's pushing, pushing everyone, I think. So today there were job openings. So we have job openings that are as expected, so nothing special. So as usual, some investors can see things pessimistically, in a "oh dear, we have more job openings than last month, so employment will be good, so they won't lower rates, etc., etc., which will decrease the probability of lowering rates." And some will say, "Well, there is job creation, but no more than expected, not much more than last month, so it's okay." Well, so you see, the figure is stagnating a bit. Well, there's nothing special to get out of it. On the other hand, tomorrow, there will be the ISM Services PMI. We will see how the factories are doing. Below 50 means factories are still in contraction. So that means order books are a bit empty, you see. Things aren't moving too much. That's the idea. Above 50, it means things are working a bit better. And but what will count will be Friday. Really Friday, that's when things will swing. Tomorrow, I don't think it will have much impact. We still have a 96.7% probability, according to rate traders, of a rate cut for October 29th, and for December, a 75.8% probability of a rate cut on December 10th. That's what investors think. We'll see if they are right or not. So for now, well, it's a false red, it's not moving. So you see, well, no, I mean, yes, no, I say it's compared to yesterday. So yesterday it closed with an doji candle. Today a little bit of red, a little bit of red here for the S&P 500, a little bit of red for the Nasdaq, but it remains very light. Europe is funny, Europe is pushing well. The European stock market is nicely green, European tech is also green. So the Nasdaq and S&P are a bit in the red, Japan is a bit in the red. Hong Kong and China are in the green. Gold continues to climb. It has hit $3,000, soon $4,000 for gold. It's madness, it's madness this rise in gold. Wow! And gold exploding upwards like that is never a good sign. Well, gold exploding upwards, oil not exploding downwards, it's not exploding but it's falling. You see, it's not very cheerful. It smells of recession. It smells of recession. We know we are in stagflation. We know that the American economy is in stagflation, and therefore people need to protect themselves. Stagflation is the worst thing: the economy doesn't collapse, and your money gets devalued, it gets burned by inflation, you see. And on top of that, on top of your money being burned by inflation, they will print money to further devalue your money that is being burned, you see. And so, why is oil red? Because stagflation means recession, a slowing economy, so less need for oil. And people are going into gold to try to save their assets, their purchasing power, to try to save their dollars, because if you stay in dollars, your money gets burned by inflation and by interest rate cuts, you see. Whereas if you stay in gold, well, when you return to dollars, at least you won't lose as much, you see. You won't devalue your assets as much. So the goal is really to try to protect your assets as they are, in gold. They don't go into gold to make money. No, gold is a safe haven. If I go back to dollars, it burns automatically, in the bank, it burns by itself. So that's the idea. So it means people are afraid. So people are going into gold as a safe haven for their money, and they are also going into the stock market, which is pushing well, to try to make returns. You see, that's the idea. So for now, they are not too afraid of the stock market yet. What could make them afraid of the stock market and suddenly start selling? It will be the next quarterly earnings reports from companies, because an economy that is doing badly will eventually be reflected in company earnings. So when Nvidia, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, all of them, the Magnificent Seven, show their earnings reports with revenues that have fallen. Well, if that happens, if revenues fall, then we will feel it in the stocks and people will say, "Oh my God!" And then, okay, stocks, I can't make any more returns. So where do I go? I go into gold to save my assets a bit, and I also go into the bond market. The bond market is a bit attractive, you see, offering quite high yields, 4.13, 4.13 is quite a lot on the 10-year, you see. So they will go for 2-year, but for now, as long as they think they can get returns on the stock market, they will stay there. And for now, there are no bad company earnings. So there's no particular reason to sell. But if the earnings reports start to look bad, then they will start selling. They will sell quickly because they will sell before others sell on very bad earnings reports. Well, regarding crypto stocks, well, it's going okay, it's rather good today, but yesterday it pushed well. Yesterday was a big green day for everyone, rather very nice. And the dollar, which is quietly continuing to be a bit red for 3 days. But be careful with this little guy, because he might not have said his last word, this little dollar. Well, friends, thank you for listening. Well, I send you kisses and see you soon. Bye bye.