Transcription
Ethiopia and Eritrea could be headed towards war. Officials in Northern Ethiopia and regional experts have warned such a conflict would signal the death blow to a historic rapport between the two longtime foes, and it would also risk creating another humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa.
Eritrea, a former Italian colony, was annexed by Ethiopia in 1962. Rebel forces led by now President Isaias Afwerki waged a three-decade armed struggle that secured Eritrea's independence in 1993. The two countries had initially warm ties, but clashes broke out in 1998 over ownership of a disputed border town. An estimated 880,000 people were killed in the subsequent two years of war.
The two countries remained formally at war until 2018, when Afwerki and newly appointed Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to normalize diplomatic relations and rebuild economic ties.
The warnings of conflict stem from fresh instability in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region. A civil war there between 2020 and 2022 led to hundreds of thousands of deaths. During the war, Eritrean forces crossed the border into Tigray to fight in support of Ethiopia's federal army against rebels led by the region's ruling party, the TPLF.
But a peace deal signed in November 2022 drove a wedge between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eritrea, analysts say, was not happy at being excluded from the negotiations, which allowed the TPLF, with which Eritrea remains deeply hostile, to govern the region. According to the US, some Eritrean troops have remained on Ethiopian soil despite the deal calling for the withdrawal of outside forces.
The TPLF, which runs Tigray's postwar interim administration with the blessing of the federal government, has since split. A dissident faction seized the town of Adigrat this week. It accuses those in power of selling out Tigrayan interests. Tigray's interim administration accuses the dissidents of collaborating with Eritrea. Each side denies the other's allegations. Experts say the standoff could lead to Ethiopia and Eritrea backing rival camps in Tigray and ultimately coming into direct conflict.
Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, according to a human rights group. Diplomatic sources and Tigrayan officials have told Reuters that Ethiopia has deployed troops towards the Eritrean border. Eritrean and Ethiopian government spokespeople have not responded to requests for comment.
Eritrean officials have also bristled at repeated public declarations from Abiy since 2023 that landlocked Ethiopia has a right to sea access. Many in Eritrea, which relies on the Red Sea, view that as an implicit threat of military action. Last October, Eritrea signed a security pact with Egypt and Somalia that was widely seen as aimed at countering Ethiopia's potential expansionist ambitions.