Transcription
We are truly at a key level on this weekly close for BTC. We will talk about it, we will also talk about the Weekly order block and make a small update on the ETFs, what happened this week in terms of inflows, outflows, and we will make a small update on Ethereum. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available. 31 TP for the LIM algorithms last week and plus 7.97R for the SPT algorithms. This means they have gained h times more than what they risked, quite simply. I remind you that past performance is not indicative of future performance. You have access to the algorithms' results every week in the "résultat hebdo" (weekly results) room. We simply give you a big update. To access it, it's free, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link to access it. I remind you that it's free. Currently, Bitgate is offering you a 10% deposit bonus. So for example, if you deposit 9000 dollars, you get 900 USDT bonus, which is really a good thing. You just need to click here on "join" to benefit from it. You create your account and then to access the algos, mentorship, VIP, Alcoin and crypto, you just need to click on this second link. It's a short video that explains absolutely everything. You will have access to the complete mentorship and also to the VIP Alcoin and VIP crypto on Discord. All this for free, this is where I will share the best opportunities on the market.
So, to come back to BTC, on a weekly scale, we are still on the support of the weekly order block. Here, we can see that the price has been defending this support for 2, 3, 4 weeks. We need to bounce back, meaning we need to return towards the resistances because the more time we spend here, the more we will accumulate stops and liquidity, liquidations to be triggered below the last low. And so this could trigger the questioning of the support. That's why Bitcoin really needs to go up again quickly in my opinion, that we return more towards the resistances than spending time around this support because building a trendline like this is never very positive. All those who are long are simply putting their stops below the last low here. And this is what could make the market want to go and liquidate them.
Also, what I like to look at is the inflows and outflows on the ETFs to see if there is still demand or if, on the contrary, supply is more important. If we have more sellers, then theoretically prices are more likely to fall, which is logical. We can see that last week here, we seem to be on a neutral week, or even with slightly more significant outflows. So this means that demand has left the market since the last big wave of buyers here who were absorbed at the top. We can see it, there were 5 or 6 billion in inflows this week. Unfortunately, it was absorbed. So the market rejected downwards. And here, we can see that for now, outflows are returning, which creates selling pressure. But the outflows are minimal since on the side of the US indices, everything is still fine. And in fact, the risk is that if at some point the US indices start to retrace, it is at that moment we could have outflows on Bitcoin and therefore selling pressure on the market as a whole. So for now, it's fine, it's okay. On the index side, we could just come and fill our gap, come and seek our breaker and go back up. That wouldn't be a problem. This could indeed keep BTC in a sort of range. And we see what Bitcoin is doing, it's just hunting for liquidity. I can show you this here. But last week, or rather this week, what did we do? We came to hunt the low of last week, we came to hunt the weekly high and in the end, we didn't take a direction. Meaning we are still in the same place. We see this on weekly. I take the stops of this candle. So here, I take the stops of the sellers of the last two weeks, I re-enter, I come to take the stops of the buyers of the last week, I re-enter. And so this proves that it is a market that is probably waiting for a big catalyst. Strangely, we had bullish catalysts with the end of QT at the beginning of December 2025, also next month. We also had the agreement between the United States and China, which is a rather good agreement, but ultimately the price is doing nothing. So perhaps we are waiting for another catalyst that will move the markets, but in any case, for now, investors are not too interested in BTC, which means it is simply consolidating and will therefore seek liquidity to execute orders. I told you about this, but this is how markets move.
Also, we can see here on the Kyotaka side that we can have liquidations, oops, on derivatives products of hyperliquidity because it's an index, so the orders are transparent. We can see that liquidations are accumulating a bit everywhere. We especially have a large liquidation cluster that is rebuilding above 116,300 dollars. So in fact, theoretically, what Bitcoin could do, if we assume that for now it has topped here. Okay. I'm not saying that's the case, I don't know if it's the case, but for now the price is unable to regain this bearish candle. So as long as we don't re-establish ourselves above 1200 dollars, we can estimate that this high will remain intact for the moment. Therefore, what Bitcoin can do is come and seek liquidations in this fair value gap zone, come and take the stops, but unfortunately, this would look like distribution because if the market always comes to hunt the highs but leaves the lows behind it, there will be a very high chance that it will do something like this afterwards, and that would not be positive. Ideally, the best-case scenario, since everyone is starting to be bearish, is simply to come and take the stops and then take the opposite direction, go back up. That would be the best-case scenario. We take the buyers' stops, the sellers jump into the short, they get trapped, and we continue to go higher by doing a short squeeze. That would be a good scenario. And regarding what the price is doing here, if it continues to do something like this, there will be a greater chance of going down unfortunately because it is distributing at the highs, so it is getting rid of sellers in a market where we know there are fewer buyers currently since, as we see here with the ETFs, outflows are more significant than inflows. So we know there is more selling pressure. For those who also look at the Coinbase premium, which is quite interesting, it is negative, so there is more selling pressure on the spot market. This means that theoretically, if the market is stagnating here, it might be trying to get rid of as many sellers as possible before the next bearish direction. I don't know if this direction will be bearish again, but given the data we have before us and if the price continues to look like this, meaning I accumulate my lows and I distribute at my highs, it would not be positive.
Also, a zone to observe today and tomorrow is the high of Friday or Thursday. The high of Friday, because it covers a small fair value gap zone here, and we can note that in my opinion, the price will come and take the stops in this zone. You see, we have been consolidating in the same candle since Thursday. So here we have stops accumulating below this low, above this high. It would be interesting to see which stop zone the market will take first. Personally, I think we are consolidating this stop zone and it will not end up being broken. And if we are rejected afterwards, well, that would announce a bearish continuation in the sense that we have taken the stops and we continue to fall. So I am observing these two zones. I am observing the zone, the small daily fair value gap zone here between 111,600 and 112,100. And I am also observing the high of last week above 116,300 dollars because we know there are liquidations to be triggered, there are quite a few, and we also know that this could justify a distribution pattern, like this one. I'm telling you, it's always better in a consolidation to have the lows hunted rather than the highs. For example, here we accumulated highs like this. We hunted the lows multiple times to continue. This is bullish. Also, for example, here again, we accumulated highs, we hunted the lows, and then we had the bullish breakout. Similarly, throughout the consolidation before Donald Trump's election, the price consolidated and it confirmed all the stop zones. Here, we have only accumulated stop zones. And what did the price do afterwards? It hunted all the lows once, twice, three times, four times here, accumulating a maximum of highs. And so at some point, boom, the big short squeeze. Obviously, it's not just because people are shorting, it's also because of the elections, big inflows. I showed you this on ETFs, on stablecoins, but it shows and testifies to accumulation patterns. It's like here. Here, we are in a distribution pattern before going back up. Why? Because the price here accumulated a lot of stops, it hunted the highs, news came out, boom, we broke everything downwards. And then, well, there were huge inflows. But this was also a continuation pattern once we broke, once we re-entered. But here, there was a small distribution that liquidated all the stops. So of course, it doesn't always work like that. But when you have a consolidation and your price always comes to recover the highs, leaving the lows behind, there is a high chance that it will eventually break down. Similarly here, we leave the lows intact, we take out the highs once, twice, then boom, we break down. And so here, to launch this big bullish move, we came to take all the stops here and we launched the bullish move. So these are often things we see in accumulation/distribution patterns. For example, here too, we were leaving all the lows behind us, tick, tick, tick. We were only hunting the highs. At some point, boom, we broke everything to the south. Similarly, here again, we take the highs. We take the highs. Well, we had the FTX crash. I think even without the crash, we would have probably come back to test below the lows. The crash triggered it faster. But well. And so, if this continues to remain like this, it looks more like distribution. If the market continues to hunt the highs while leaving the lows, it could indicate a bearish continuation, hoping that's not the case, of course, but it's what could be forming.
On the Ethereum side, we will also look at the ETFs, see a bit what's happening there. So, I have so many tabs that it's getting complicated. Oops, here in dollars. VoilĂ , we can see similarly that there are outflows, inflows. Well, it's rather neutral, it's rather neutral. In any case, there are no longer a huge number of buyers. We can see that the inflows, the green bars are decreasing, that the outflows are also not increasing, they are also decreasing. So it's contracting, and this also proves that we are waiting for a next big catalyst. I don't know what this big catalyst would be. Feel free to tell me in the comments what you think it would be? Because I don't really see it. We've had the biggest news. I don't know if it's because macroeconomically things will deteriorate. We need to look at inflation, for example. It's true that I wanted to talk about it today, but regarding inflation, we see inflation really starting to rise again. This is not positive at all. See here, we've gone back up to 2.69. It's not good at all. Inflation is rising. Trump's tariffs are causing inflation. If inflation continues to rise too much, continues to rise too much, then we will simply have less probability of lowering interest rates, and that will be problematic because we know that banks are in trouble with liquidity. There is really a big lack of liquidity. So if, on top of that, inflation rises too much and the Fed cannot lower rates, liquidity will continue to contract, and that would not be positive. So here, we see that we still have a 63% probability of lowering rates in December. But if inflation continues to rise like this, the market will start to ask questions. There are also inflationary indicators like oil, for example, that we will need to observe. Similarly, if oil starts to squeeze here and go back north, that could also be dangerous. So these are all things to observe, of course. Here, oil, we see it's starting to go up a bit. Has it formed its bottom or not? I don't know. It's complicated to answer. This is the market that will decide, it remains a range. So we could very well come, oops, go up and go back south. In fact, many things can happen, but if there is a bullish attack at some point, it will create a lot of inflation, and then Powell won't be able to lower rates, and even the next Sherman will have trouble lowering interest rates. So this is a bit of what to observe.
And so, on the Ethereum side, it's a bit the same. That is to say, here, on the weekly, well, we are still working on more or less the same zone, that is to say the fair value gap here on the weekly. This is really the zone to maintain. Starting to establish ourselves below this fair value gap zone could indeed announce a retest of the stop zone at 3345 dollars. So that would not be positive. So we need to maintain this fair value gap zone. Ethereum is doing like Bitcoin, meaning it's coming to hunt for stops. You see, we came to take this extremity, this extremity, and we are still within the same candle. So in fact, last week, or rather this week, nothing happened, we just came to take stops in all directions and we are in the same place. So this proves that it is a market that is going nowhere, that is waiting for a catalyst and that is just taking liquidity where there is to be taken. And similarly, we are leaving stops to the south, leaving stops to the north. So here, the situation is even more unclear on Ethereum than on Bitcoin because, with Bitcoin, it is distributing at its highs. So you can tell yourself that it might be preparing a bearish leg, but with Ethereum, you can hardly tell yourself that since it remains in a range. So this is a slightly different reading on the Ethereum side, and I think Ethereum is simply waiting for Bitcoin's direction. After that, we see it at the price action level, absolutely nothing is happening. It's a bit very unclear. So, to not overthink it, it remains a range. We will have to wait for the resolution of this range. I say it again, it's better if we have an Ethereum that does something like this, that re-enters, it would be really positive to go and take the stops then in this zone, but why not the TH and more, that would be good, because here we see that we are leaving our stops behind us. So something like this, why not? It would be really good. However, if it breaks and there are no signs of strength afterwards, well, it's a real breakout. That can happen too. That's why you need to observe the price reaction when we go to hunt for stops. Does it react or not? If it doesn't react, it's not necessarily positive. For example, here it reacts well, it's very positive to go higher. But there are times when yes, the market really makes breakouts. That happens, no problem. So for example, here, there is a consolidation. It's not because we haven't come to take the stops to the south that it won't pump. No, here it's a real breakout, the market accepts it. We continue, we go in the other direction. At that point, there is no problem. So sometimes, breakouts really work. You have to observe if it re-enters or not. If it re-enters, there is a very high chance of taking the opposite position. If it breaks without re-entering, then there is a very high chance of bearish continuation. So it remains a range. You don't need to overthink it. I really think we are waiting for a big catalyst. The US indices continue to push further north, but the crypto market is not following. So I really think that at the slightest stress on the indices, the market could start to have a bit of trouble and we could come back to work a bit lower.
I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a small comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you. Don't hesitate. See you tomorrow. Have a good day.