Transcription
It takes time for Bitcoin bottoms to form. And that's what we need to discuss within today's update video because this chart showcases us how long it is expected to take before Bitcoin finally makes that bare market bottom compared to the other midterm years and the other Bitcoin cycles. So that's exactly what we will discuss within today's update video.
We will discuss a lot more like all of the most important Bitcoin charts and price data and of course some Ethereum later in today's update video plus the most relevant news for the next few days. So first of all make sure to subscribe to the channel, watch and like my latest YouTube videos and then we can dive into the most important content.
Since in this video I want to emphasize that it takes time for Bitcoin bottoms to form and actually from off here it is probably going to take a minimum of another 100 days before the Bitcoin bottom is going to form and I'm going to show you exactly why. If we look into the Bitcoin price after the halving, so 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, all of those were halving years. And if we count from of the exact point of the halving itself, it takes about 777 days up to 925 days before Bitcoin bottoms out.
So, it takes time for bare market bottoms to form. And actually if you look in all the years we had the 2012 halving and then it took 777 days before Bitcoin made the bare market bottom before the next boom market cycle. 2016 halving, it took about 890 days before we made that bottom in September. And of 2020 halving, it took about 925 days. So what we can see is that it takes longer and longer before Bitcoin makes that bare market bottom. If this would be repeating here, then we could say that Bitcoin is probably going to bottom about 930, 940, 950 days after the halving of 2024. And that means that Bitcoin is probably going to bottom somewhere in Q4. And I think that's going to be quite the realistic scenario.
Bitcoin is indeed getting quite oversold on multiple charts, but that does not mean that we can see another move lower and we can see a prolonged consolidation up until bare market bottom because I think Bitcoin is going to come down to that 60% drawdown level because that would make the most sense if we look into diminishing returns and also in that case diminishing drawdowns. I think we are going to come towards somewhere close to this line which is going to be that 60% drawdown left for Bitcoin which means that we are going to see another move lower. That move lower could actually come quite fast because if we look in the Bitcoin dead cross, we have a dead cross about to flash on the 3-day time frame and usually once we see that signal Bitcoin makes quite a large move lower at about 30 days from that signal flashing so about 1 month afterwards, sometimes a little bit early, a little bit later, but actually this has been happening since the 2014 and 15 cycle. So this is something that happened three cycles before and I think it could most definitely be repeating once again for Bitcoin. And yes, then we are going to see a final move lower.
And if we look into where Bitcoin is trading at now, I think it looks similar as this phase here in 2022. Maybe it's going to last a little bit longer since Bitcoin of course came down much faster than what we saw during 2022. But I think after this consolidation, there is going to be another significant move lower and we might not have such a brutal bare market bottom like we saw during 2022 with of course the FTX collapse and the Terra Luna collapse. I think this for example could be a final Bitcoin move lower towards the 45 and 50K levels taking out the liquidity here at this wick. I think that's going to be quite the realistic scenario and it's going to take time before the bare market bottom will form in Q4 of this midterm year.
And then let's discuss some news because first of all we have the Bitcoin hash rate recovering quite fast here which is quite a bullish signal for the network because it means the network is is basically better secured once again and that's going to attract even more investors into Bitcoin eventually. We have some news coming out actually yesterday that Iran rejected all of the US nuclear demands. So the negotiations are not going quite well here and that's why I think it could become a spicy weekend. On the other hand, the Polymarket odds are not pricing in that there is going to happen something before March 31. So the end of March, they don't think the US is going to attack Iran before that exact date. That's what the market is pricing in now. But on the other hand, we don't exactly know if there's going to be like a very interesting news article coming out, something hinting on strikes. Of course, the Polymarket also just going to move based on that and depending on that. So, it could change quite quickly here, but for now, the market is not pricing in to happen for this weekend or the weeks afterward. It's basically pricing it in from off the end of March and later because the market does still think it is going to happen this year. And that's of course not a very good outlook. It's also something we don't have any control over. So probably it's better to just focus on the charts here. But of course if something like that this would happen, it's going to have a big effect on the markets here.
Then I do want to quickly discuss Ethereum because if we look into the short-term perspective here on the 4-hourly perspective, we are trading in this new range for ETH. Basically a perfect range, quite a large range also from off the 1.8K level towards the 2.2K level, something like that. And we have been getting rejected from off that range high once again. And now we are trading slightly above the mid-channel of the range. And yeah, we might come lower once again to retest the range low. We might come higher and retest the range high. But the main idea is range trading, I think, in this zone up until Bitcoin is going to make its next decision. And that could very well be a final move lower.
And if that's going to be the case for ETH, if we zoom out on the chart, I think a move to the 1.5K level is going to be quite likely. And that's also exactly my preferred entry zone to accumulate more Ethereum on spot from off 1.5K to 1K. I think it's going to be an absolutely amazing accumulation phase for Ethereum. So that's what I'm eyeing at the moment. But if we are going to come back down towards these levels, the downside of the regression channel, I think it's going to be an absolutely amazing opportunity because that's what we saw here in 2020 and same can be said for 2016. So that's my outlook for Bitcoin and ETH at the moment.
That was also it for today's update video. If you did enjoy this update video, make sure to subscribe to the channel, watch and like my latest future videos, and then I will see you guys within my next update video tomorrow.