Transcription
Hey everybody, it's Thursday and uh a lot of people want to know what's happening with Bitcoin. I'm going to try to paint a picture of whether or not we're going to go up or down. And there are people that are so-called experts there out there saying we could go to 50K, we could go to 150K or 60K or 160K, etc. It's all over the shop. Everybody's flipping. Everybody's turning bearish. But is that a good sign? Let's get into it. And let's also talk about the big elephant in the room that's keeping a lid on things as well.
Big thank you to Shauny and TD Tesla. 2 9:00 a.m. starts this week. I hope it's okay. I miss I do miss our Australians because it's like 4:00 a.m. in Sydney for those. So, if there is an Australian up, hello there. Let's get into the story. And again, thank you to every for coming. And this is not financial advice. Never is. Just a guy on the internet. And a big thank you as well to everybody in Patreon that make it possible for me to build out the best team ever from Bass Strategy. Bonus if you join the Patreon group. Best thing I've ever done. Thank you so much for being part of it, Mr. Bass.
So, first of all, in this time is different news. Let's check out history compared to what has happened so far in 2025. So these are the average monthly gainers on Bitcoin. So we are positive in January. We were negative in Feb and March. But history says we should be positive. And history says we should be positive in the next four months and we were. But ever since then it's been horrible. So August should be up. We were down. September should be down. We were up another miss. And so far October is down. October and November is down as well. So it's literally of this the where the pattern matches it's five times out of 11 with six misses out of 11. And that is kind of a scary stat. So good news is don't expect things to be the same. Uh also a little bit of good news. I know we've breached the level a couple of times but now Bitcoin has been above $1,000 for 182 days which is good. And yes, if you turn on the candles, you see we breach the 100k line a couple of times, about three or four times, but it does tend to bounce there and people do tend to come in and stack secretly. Who they are, we don't know.
But let's talk about some of the big issues. The money flow, the money flow for ETFs has been bad. Real bad. Treadfi is dumping Bitcoin, including Black Rockck, nearly 400 million yesterday, but 29th of October, Big Red, half a billion. 30th half a billion. 200 million 31st, 200 million third, 600 million fourth, and minus 137 million yesterday. It's pretty ugly. Let's look at some of the others. See how they're doing. ETH even worse on a percentage basis. Red, red, red, red, red, red. And Salana, positive, positive, positive, positive. But it's also new. So, it's a new kid in the store. And maybe that's why the flows are positive. Or maybe some people believe there's a rotation happening out of Ethereum into Salana. Uh check out my Patreon post this morning on Ethereum. Very interesting discovery.
But in other news, too, Wintermute, the guys and gals that manipulate markets are now doing more datadriven stuff, too. They talk about the money flow slowing. And in this chart, you can see the DATs are dark green. White is stable coin supply, which is petered off. debt flows, monthly assets petered off and of course the ETF is petering off too. So everything is kind of slowing down. The question is why? And the answer is pretty simple. Pretty simple. The government shutdown has stopped all liquidity. And again, another post this morning uh was basically, yeah, why the markets continue to suck. The reason is liquidity. No booze at the party, no fun at the party. That's that that simple. 700 billion has been drained in the last 30 days. And that's equivalent to a huge round of quant quantitative tightening. And this is what's killing stuff. The government is shut down, but it's still taking money in, but it's not putting it out. So nobody has money out there. Nobody. People are not getting paid. Money is not being transferred. It is ugly situation.
But there is a silver lining. Okay. You always have to play where the puck is going to be. The question is what happens after the government reopens. And to be honest, people like me, we don't care if it's open or closed. It doesn't matter. All they do is nonsense. But when it does open, this is what typically happens. we get a bounce and uh shout out to BTC long for this chart. Pretty cool. Uh but basically last time the government shut down was in 2024 no 20 I don't know what 2022 20 I don't even remember. But the point is after it reopened Bitcoin shot up a lot and we're in this current shutdown since 1st of October. It is the longest US government shutdown ever and we expect the market to rally. But that that chart wasn't scientific enough for me because an N of one is not statistically valid by any stretch of the imagination. But I did go back in history and calculated all of the S&P 500 performance after the governments reopened after being shut down. And that tells a more interesting story. And remember some of these dates there was no Bitcoin. So I couldn't calculate the Bitcoin price. So I took the S&P 500 because Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are correlated to the tune of 80%. Now this is the longest duration of a shutdown now in history. The second longest one was that one back in 2019 and 90 days after the government reopened the S&P 500 went up 11%. In 2013 it went up 7%. 1996 6% 82 15% and 79 5%. Every single time it went up on average 9% within 90 days of the government reopening. Is it going to repeat? It doesn't get more solid than that. And by the way, I guess the government just figured out how to prove they're useless back in 1979. So shout out to that historic date.
Now, if that wasn't good enough, there's some other good signs, too. That could be right. Unless, of course, we're going into a bare market. And for weeks now, I've been saying, yeah, still 30% chance there's a bare market. But there are things happening behind the scenes that are kind of bullish. We know, sorry, from this chart that after the government reopens, there will be a flood of money hitting the system, which means it'll bring the markets up. Good news. Also, we know buy when there's blood in the streets. Every time fear and greed under 20, it's a bottom signal for Bitcoin. No ifs, ends, or buts. In a bull market, i.e., ever since November 2022, if we are in a bare market and we're heading back to 70K, all bets are off. But your job is to take all the data I share with you and make your own decision. I'm not telling you what to do. And MVRV also showing a big bottom signal. We haven't seen an MVRV this low since April 2025. And we know what happened in April 2025. That was peak tariff tantrum on April 8th, which was also a time to deploy and buy lots of good stuff super cheap. I think Salana was like 100 bucks. Nvidia was $88. All those treats were worth buying at that point. So, will it repeat? I'm not sure. But if we're still in a bull market or even a perpetual bull market, it's a very very good sign.
Now, there is also some weird stuff happening under the scenes. There's some dark fost. There is somebody somewhere or a series of accumulation wallets that have stacked more than 375,000 Bitcoin over the last 30 days. Now, I went in and checked the OTC desks. The OTC desks are exactly at the same spot they were in August about 130,000 give or take Bitcoin much about 80,000 of it is within Coinbase. So there's the the coin the OTC desks have not stacked. So this is not OCD OTC desks but this is some other group maybe grabbing some Bitcoin because they know over time it's going to go up assuming it survives. And then we have other crazy news too. Our friends in Kazakhstan, very nice. They consider consider buying rotating out of gold and buying Bitcoin. Wouldn't that be cool? They could be completely ahead of their time if they were to do that because even matter too. Other people are stacking. Bitcoin OG Adam back buys the dip and shout out to Adam. Great work. He is building a future secure fund to build a Bitcoin treasury which is awesome and they even at the price above 100,000 they believe it's still a very good deal. So that is also very exciting when big players drop this and I think the the the name is very funny. I think it's Fulgar Ventures. I remember that because it's like Vulgar Fulgar that's kind of funny and uh he is not in a panic. He is a Bitcoin OG and he knows that Switzerland has very low interest rates. They're looking for alpha somewhere along the way. We'll see what they do.
And then if things couldn't get any weirder with a firm called JP Morgan that hated hated with all their heart Bitcoin for the longest time now say it's stupid cheap compared to gold. Crazy. Let me blow this up so I can try to read a little bit. uh their analysis found that as gold has surged above 4,000 an ounce, I think it's just under right now, um the Bitcoin volatility has subsided and to reach parody with gold's 6.2 trillion in private sector investments on a riskadjusted basis, Bitcoin's price would need to climb roughly 2/3 to about $170,000. Now, other firms have said the same thing a couple of weeks ago, but it's good to see JP Morgan jumping on the bandwagon, too. And the old debasement trade is alive and well.
But then there's some crazy news. We have a guy, shout out to Tom Lee, a week ago, he said Bitcoin's going to 200,000. And the week before that it's going to 250,000 in the next 70 days. Now he comes out and says, well, with tightening market liquidity, we could go to $94,000. So I think Bob Lucas said 160 60 somewhere in that range. It's it's it's hilarious. It's like everybody's throwing darts. Okay. So far, I still see data accumulation. For example, Micro Strategy through STRC. I believe they'll soon maybe be at the stage of buying a,000 Bitcoin a week. And if we have somebody else buying a,000 Bitcoin a week, we're done. We're set. We get that perpetual bull market. Like the ETFs can easily do that. And then there are other players and the long-term holders should almost be done selling as we covered many times. Maybe maybe they should also be done selling.
Now let's look at some of the proxy news too. Micro strategy now is the lowest level in years at 1.077 and that is pretty darn low. I thought it would hit a bottom at about 112 114. It didn't. It's gone through that. The proxies are getting murdered across the board. my huddle table. Like literally half of all the DATs are now trading under their nav, which is bizarre. And another example of how bad things are out there with these proxies. So much for the infinite money glitch. By the way, I do want to say these things are incredible to buy in a bare market. My average price of micro strategy is about $16. Okay? So even when it falls to 250 and your cost base is 16, it's worth holding on to as what I call an anchor baby just in case Bitcoin does something wild. You want to have your foot in the pond. And that is my foot in the pond.
Anyway, Meta Planet, their average purchase price is 107,900 and something for Bitcoin. Let's call it 108K between friends. They are the fourth largest Bitcoin treasury and now they've lost 30 million over $30 million on their Bitcoin bet. Again, brutal, brutal. I remember when MetPlanet was on fire. And this is why you need to build your hodddle model and have your nav premiums. Everybody was saying like, "Oh, nav premium 25. Get some." I said, "Nope, nope, nope, too expensive." Nav premium 12. Nope. Nope. Too expensive. 10. Nope. 6 10 5 4.6. 2 and 1/2. Nope. was still too expensive. Now it's pretty much like a parody or less. Last time I checked, would I still buy it? No. It's not the season to buy Bitcoin Treasury companies or any treasury companies, okay? You buy them when things are cheap, not at this stage.
Anyhow, there is more good news for the astrologers out there, if there are any. We And I did notice it this morning. I was out at like 5:00 a.m. It was like bright, absolutely bright. It was like, "What time is it? This should be pitch dark." Anyhow, we had the I think they call it a super moon. And a lot of Bitcoin people, like tons of them, it's bizarre. They believe that when this super moon comes, which is the brightest moon, I think, since 2019 that we just had. Uh, back then, Bitcoin price was $3,500 if I'm not mistaken. And everybody said Bitcoin was dead. But no, after that brightest moon back in 2019, which we have a brighter one today, some people believe it's a good sign for Bitcoin. Now, every time I share this stuff, people say, "Oh, you're you're crazy. You've lost your mind." No, it's just go on X. Everybody's talking about the beaver moon, as they call it. And despite all that, Bitcoin is still hard. Bitcoin is still king, I believe.
And this is the meme of the day. We have fiat, the little pawn. We have crypto, the little box. Real estate, the horse. Stocks are the night. Gold is the queen. And Bitcoin is the king. By the way, I would actually I much rather hold stocks than gold. Look back in history, you'll see for yourself. Anyway, uh let's see put this meme together because they need to fix it. This from Bitcoin Thanos. Fix it. Stocks are better than gold. Maybe maybe not as hard. And of course, most of stocks are garbage. Remember, being in the 0.3% of assets to be able to win and survive the onslaught.
A big thank you to everybody. I hope you all learned something today. And what are people doing? Thank you, Shauny. Thank you, Tind Tesla. Big thank you to DBF30, Mary Magdalene, Dog One, and John Veto. Have a happy Thursday. Hang in there. Let's check on the Bitcoin price. See if it's still above 100,000. It's at 101,000 on the nose. Unbelievable. Unbelievable for now. Now it's just slightly under. Anyway, hang in there, my friends. Uh, I might do a sneaky report later depending on Tesla and the comp plan. Road map to a 10X. Kind of exciting to see. Should be in the bag, but don't count your chickens until they're hatched. Thank you everybody. Have a great day. Bye.