Transcription
The time has come for Bitcoin. It is now or never.
In today's video, we will talk about the Bitcoin's price action. We will talk about the seasonality because it's doing something like mirroring the 2021 cycle, but with an inverted correlation. In the second part, we're going to talk about the recession indicators, the real recession indicators. And the third part, some altcoin positioning as ever.
Now, before we start, I just want to mention again and again that bears are and forever will be uber gay. This is a post of mine from August 2023. And all I heard on the entire Twitter and also YouTube is stuff like this. First, bare markets last more than one year. False. Every cycle, this was false. Second, consolidation year after bottom. False. Again, after the bare market, we have something like 400% returns on Bitcoin. And another critical thinking point by the bears as always, as they like to sound smart, no all-time high before the haling. This was my entire thesis. When the bull market started since January 2023, I never hinged from this. I never moved the muscle. I remained in my lane, moisturized, a bull all the way up and compounded my Bitcoin positions through all the fear, the uncertainty and the recession cause.
And this is a warning for the next cycle because there will be a next cycle and there will be a bare market which will look different from uh 2014, different from 2018 and also different from 2022. But if you find yourself in the position to call for new lows after the bare market ended for every month, you might be a tof. Don't want to say this word because I do not know who runs YouTube lately, but if you find yourself in this position, you might need to pivot from that.
Now, getting into Bitcoin's price action, because I'm being an active member of crypto Twitter every day, I'm trying to do my part to cut out the noise and always leave some actionable advices for people to use them into investing. not financial advice, actionable advice. And from January 2022, all of Twitter was filled with predictions like we had a touch of the 618 fib conference with the touch of uh the 786 Fibonacci and some order blocks and 2016 and 2019 fractals. And also we need to pull back. We need to have something like a distribution because halving is near and we also know that before the halving we should have a breakdown and only then the bull market starts.
If you remember how the price of bitcoin looked like back then this is also important to us in today's episode because we're going to discuss the bitcoin seasonality and this January is very important for bitcoin's price action. And now all I see on crypto Twitter are talks about the 50week simple moving average or moving average doesn't really matter because past times we had something like this. This is what people are comparing in today's price action for Bitcoin because we touched just like here just like here just like here some moving averages and if we do something like this the next phase is down.
Here is why I do not agree with this. First, because all the analysts here on Twitter and also YouTube are talking about the same exact thing. Just like in January 2024 with the price of Bitcoin at something like 45K, all of crypto Twitter looks at the exact same thing at the exact same time. Here is why I do not agree with this at all. I also made a post about this um mirroring cycle from 2021 and we have the seasonality for Bitcoin explained in a whole clip right here on this YouTube channel. So this is me, my name is Christian. If you're new here, so am I. So if you want some advice, not financial, get subscribed and binge watch all these clips because they are not a lot. But all these videos will give you a gauge about how I view the market and how I position to make money.
Now returning to the uh seasonality of Bitcoin discussion. The next major pivot for Bitcoin is January 20ish plus or minus a few days. We had here from January 20 in 2021 a pivot low. So this was a low. You can see here a major correction like 35% if I remember correctly. And what came after that until uh March end and also April start was the continuation upwards. Mirror mirror on the wall one year later into the bare market. Actually, we had the same exact thing happening for Bitcoin. Big dump into January 20 plus or minus few days and April start. It is never an exact day. You can see here January 21. Here we had January 24. Here we had the April 14. Here we had April 3rd. What came after was the exact opposite. So we had January local low into April start local high. Then big down. Next year, January 20, local low into April start, local high, big down. So, what do we have this year and how? I'm looking at the seasonality window. We had the exact opposite thing. January 21, local high, April 7, local low, big up after that.
Now, we are going to see, in my opinion, the exact same thing we saw this year, just as in 2021, we saw the exact same thing. Not at the same scale, but it doesn't matter. And now to check what could happen from now into January 21. This is let's call it the intra cycle seasonality for Bitcoin. We had the big recovery in uh the summer of 21. Then got into the 6th of October with an impulsive manner and then we continued in corrective movements. These are corrective movements to the upside. They can always come to the upside to the downside and also lateral movements. And now from October 6th, we had the exact same thing but in reverse just like we had here. 2021 versus 2025. First wind of seasonality from January 20 into April start. Just sharing my thoughts here. This is pretty much the same thing but to the downside. So when is the next pivot? We can see here from uh October 6th into November 10th. Then a big down. So if this is correct, I'm already positioned for it. October 6th local high, November 10th local low. Then the seasonality should become positive for Bitcoin leading into that window and the price could look in many different ways. Maybe it starts something like an impulse then corrects then another impulse and then corrective movements into this January 20 seasonality window. And again, if this is true, remember what should come next from January 20, 2026 into April start, meaning what we had here. Maybe the seasonality could reverse. That would mean that we should have some corrective movements from here and maybe a January local low and then continuation up into April start. But that's not my main scenario because that would invalidate my bull thesis which is as explained in October last month. I do not want to see a monthly close below 100. Let's say 102K. A monthly close weeks are totally valid. That was what I was saying also in October and it's still valid this month. But we have some time to resolve this to the upside. This candle could look something like this also and leave a big week to the downside as long as this doesn't close below the yearly open on a monthly candle. So basically my base case hasn't changed for this cycle ending. I'm still watching for that 150 160K area maybe even higher because on the sentiment I'm watching all over Twitter and all over the internet. Everyone was giving up on this cycle. We have no more time left. We have this RSI bearish divergence on the weekly which last cycle meant that it was already over. I said weekly and I meanted I just forgot to change up the chart. So basically the whole strategies of uh people nowadays on Twitter are based on moving averages and divergences on the RSI building and building and building. If you watch the 2017 bull cycle, you can see that all of these, this one and this one, all of these got invalidated all the way up for Bitcoin. And now people just look at this one because it's the closest cycle to look for, but the price action is never the same. The market structure, you can see here 1 2 3 4 5 almost truncated. It is not the same as 2017 structure. So if everyone is seeing the same thing, this could easily become this and the price is double and this invalidates all of the thesis for the bare market and then if we find ourselves into this situation with Bitcoin being or doing a new all-time high into January, just imagine how people will sound if this gets invalidated also on their favorite charts also rejecting that moving average, no more bare markets, super cycle, etc. And then what comes next after this? Yeah, we will see. We will also update.
Now looking at the real recession indicators, we watch on this channel the US 3 month and we calculate the delta between the US interest rates. You can see that we are now at 425. This is actually a range from 400 basis points into 425 basis points. So basically the delta should always be more than 25 basis points between the Fed rates and the US 3 month. When this starts to go like this, then imagine panic cuts and then imagine what happens into penny cuts. Big down, big up first and big down after. But because this is actually very sensitive, we need to watch first the US 10 year. And when this starts to break down like this, we have something like a month before this could really become a thing and they start to panic cut while the markets break down very fast and very hard. Until this two happen, we have some more time in my humble opinion.
Now going to the altcoin charts for me into this year. I'm more interested in the IORA chart, the CRV and the CVX which got me some juicy entries that I did not see since last year and also this year in April for CRV also which holds a lot more stronger than CVX. Algorand was thinking to add this one too, but I don't want to be too exposed to too many coins. Also Vchain kind of the same thing. I'm working on a leverage position on this one and I have only 40% of my Bitcoin left to see if the market fakes me out and does something like this and rolls over, I should be able to sell Bitcoin at 110, 100K. I'm happy with that. But this is my main target for now. 150 maybe. Maybe we get to something like 20 4 6 15 I don't know. But it needs to happen in my opinion in this seasonality window until December and some days in January.
Now for the altcoin market, I've explained that uh from September, if we have a dump, the same seasonality stuff uh that I was talking about about Bitcoin, if we have a dump for Bitcoin dominance into the start of September, the next phase into November and maybe the start of December is up again, maybe like this, maybe like this, I do not know. But from this month, maybe the start of the next, I think we could see something like this happen very fast. And this is the trigger I'm waiting for to get all of my profits out. no matter what prices because I also have some losing positions. I'm down 50% on E-old. But it doesn't matter. I got the other winners that supported my portfolio. And I'm going to sell this one too at no matter the price when I see the Bitcoin dominance go where it should be. And remember my whole thesis for this uh cycle is that we should have a half coin season, not an old coin season like we had the past cycles. And if you want to understand why I'm thinking like that, why I have this view, you should watch this clip. I explained all of it. But I've also explained that next season should be a monster season. So please, if today's clip is not enough for you to understand my whole view on the market and how I am positioned, meaning right now I'm 40% into Bitcoin and I'm 60% into altcoins, mostly those mentioned and also chain link. This is because from 2023 I was 80% into Bitcoin and no more than 20% into the altcoin market. Now I wanted to do the opposite to wait for this final trigger that I'm expecting on the Bitcoin dominance. And here I will assess I will sell most of what I have in the altcoin market and also Bitcoin. I will befriend some toags for a short period of time and I will reallocate all I got into the same market and also some stocks. But again, it's imperative that you watch all these clips because that's the only way you would have a clear view on how I'm playing this cycle and how I made money until now. And maybe it helps you with your strategy. Maybe you're new, maybe you're old, I don't know, but this is the only way to understand what I'm talking about. also the recession indicators explained and what prices I'm expecting next year for the majors starting with the S&P and also Bitcoin how I think that next year will impact the altcoin market which will be surprising for you I promise and if you want more in-depth analysis more market updates also a discord channel where we talk about these things daily I suggest you check out this website gameofi liquidity.com it is a subscriptionbased service check out the presentation check out also my track record because that's important because there's a lot of noise on YouTube and also Twitter with a lot of fake gurus and a lot of core sellers. I'm not here to sell you any course. I'm just here to work for the members. Check out their requests, put the responses on into market updates, how I see things, how I view things, altcoin charts, stocks charts, etc. Check it out. And I only recommend this if you are already profitable in the market. If you are new in the markets, stocks or crypto and haven't figured out how to make money yet, just use free services. Maybe this channel, maybe other channels, maybe some Telegram groups which are free. Just use your time to learn then to make money. And if you want to get to the next level, that's when you pay for a service like this. Again, check it out. Binge watch all the clips. Get subscribed. I'll see you in the next video. Have a great weekend. button.