Transcription
All right, another crazy 24 hours specifically in the silver market. Look at this price move on silver. So, you had silver topping at about $118. It went down 13% and then it rebounded and now it's doing this. A lot of people are saying that this might actually be the top for silver. Some people are saying that this is the top for silver in the beginning of a rotation to Bitcoin. Now, to be honest, I don't really believe that. I think that's just the crypto bros holding on to Opium.
But today, I got a big show for you. I got Gareth Soloway with us again, and we're going to be going through all the charts. We're going to be going through the S&P charts, silver charts, gold charts, Bitcoin charts, the DXY, and really any other charts that you guys want. So, if you guys are in the chat, let me know what charts you want, and we'll be charting them for you live with the man Gareth Soloway. We haven't actually had Gareth here for quite a while. So, very, very, very good to see him. Let's get the show on the road, guys. Wakey wakey rise and shine.
It's a different show today. It's a bit of a later show today. The reason why it's a later show is because we wanted to get Gareth on and he had some other streams, his own stream at that time. And so we figured what we'll do is we'll kick out this stream a little bit later and we would bring Gareth to you and we'd spend a day going through the charts. It's a very quiet day on the news front, but a lot is happening in the charts. So guys, slightly different show. If you want more of this, smash the like button. Let us know. Smash the like button. Obliterated. If you're not already subscribed, subscribe to the channel.
I'm going to bring Gareth on. Gareth, I think we should get Oh, what's happened to Gareth? I see that I have everyone else but Gareth. I have two screens for Gareth. Okay, that's good. Let's see. Gareth, if you changed your way No, I didn't change anything. You've toggled the screen. So, just untoggle the screen share and you'll find us. All right, hang on one second here. All right, I just unshared my screen. Do you don't see me still? I don't see you. I see your screen. Oh, lordy. I literally did not change a thing since we were just talking. Hold on a second. Let's try and get you back here. Gareth, do you want to log off and log on again on the same session. In the meantime, I'll just start going through the charts. All right, sounds good, buddy. Cool, man.
All right, so while we're getting Gareth back on, let's just quickly look at the charts and look at where we're at. So, we had silver doing things that seem crazy and seem topping today. If we look at the bubbles today, the big movers are Hyperliquid. So, if you look at Hyperliquid and pump.fun, the reason why Hyperliquid is running is because of HYPE. What you can see is that they've really proven the case that you can actually trade your stocks on Hyperliquid. The reason pump.fun is moving is, believe it or not, because they launched things like Copper Inu. People are starting to realize that no matter what happens in the markets, pump.fun becomes the custodian of all the Degen activity and the meme coins that are being launched there. Have we got Gareth back yet? Yes. Okay, amazing. Let's get Gareth back on the show here. Ah, we got you. We got you. We can see you, Gareth. Long time no see, my friend. Good to see you. Hey, good to see you too, Ran.
Gareth, I don't know about you, but I've been watching this silver thing, and for me, watching the silver chart looks like an altcoin. It looks like an altcoin that's gone ridiculously parabolic. And very soon, it's going to correct and crash and hit the ground. I wonder if you want to share your screen so we can quickly look at your charts. Absolutely. Let's take a look here. All right. Let me know if you guys see it. We got you, bro. We got you. Awesome. So this candle from yesterday is in technical analysis a topping tail and that's a dead-on indicator that essentially buyers were exhausted and sellers took control. That's why you have the long tail here and then the reversal back down. And then what you saw today was a resumption, an attempt by the bulls to recapture that momentum. This is the tricky thing as you can already see it's getting rejected again by the sellers. Now what you're looking for here is you want to see do we take out the low from yesterday. If that happens then basically that puts about a 90% chance that a near-term high is in on silver. The question is how big of a pullback? But I agree with you Ran, this is altcoin 2021 all over just in silver. Would you have the guts to short silver at this level? I am short right now actually. Yes, I am. So, I do do that. I mean, listen, it's been dangerous. I've gotten cut off a couple times attempting to and I've just had to say stop out and move on. But this signal should be the beginning of at least 20% draw down.
That was my next question to you. If you do get a draw down in silver, what are the levels on the charts that you'd be paying attention to? And the reason why I'm asking is because I look at this chart and because this chart went up so fast so quickly, I don't know where the support levels are. This is like up parabolic. So you'd go for the trend line first, the November trend line. What I'm going to look for is all of these lows going back to November. They all hammer on this general uptrend. And so the idea is that price should come back down into that. That'll be around $90 per ounce. Now, it probably from that point gets a small bounce. Usually what you'll see is a bounce, but then I actually think you're likely headed even lower. Next major support will be right in here around the $75 or $76 level. And at that point, you're starting to be in a correction level where from the highs, you'd be down about 30% on silver. And I think that's very realistic considering the run it's had.
When you look at silver as a long-term asset, I know that the narrative is created because of the price move. So no one was talking about silver until the price started moving and then everyone started to tell us how it was necessary in industrialization and in production. I mean these arguments have been around for the last 10 years but no one's even spoken about them. Soon as prices go up in the market people realize this is a very scarce metal and we need it. What do you see as the long-term picture for silver? Because silver was pretty much flat and nowhere for years. Silver traded in that $25 to $36 range for a long time. I'm just going back on my chart looking at how far this thing goes back. It goes a long time back in a very big range. How much of this move do you think is sustained? If you were looking at silver one year forward or two years forward where do you see silver trading? I actually think it's going to come back to $50. My guess is when all is said and done and the dust settles and my guess as well is that the economy once the capex from this AI craze stalls out a little bit, I think the US economy starts to slide towards recession. And I think that will switch the narrative to being one of excess supply in silver. Think about the miners right now. They're going crazy because they can cash in on silver. They were used to getting $20 or $30 per ounce. Now they're getting a hundred plus dollars an ounce. Massive windfall which is going to make them increase production. And so ultimately you're starting to see this pullback. It's not going to go straight down, but my guess is we do find our way back to $50. Where I'm getting that from is former resistance becomes now support. So, if we look at the high from 1979, 1980, and the high of 2011, this would be a natural retrace to major support. I would be a big buyer at $50, but I probably won't be until that point.
Amazing. Let's talk about gold. So, gold started off this run. Again, the narrative is that it's a big debasement trade. It's the big store of value trade. The central banks loading up on gold. And that is pretty much a fact. But as you're showing in your chart over here, gold seems to have reached the top of a channel, right? Yes, precisely. And this does tell us and it makes sense. If silver's going to top out, it's very unlikely silver is going to pull back 10 or 20% and gold is going to keep going up. And so it makes a lot of sense. And we can see again the same trend line which we used on silver going back. This one goes back to August. And then we use our top as our point of interest here for the high end of the parallel. That gives us the current level. In addition, I think it's important to remember that psychologically even numbers are very significant to investors. Silver broke through 100 and might be hitting exhaustion. Gold hit 5,000, pierced 5,000, might short-term be topping out. And I would be in the same camp where I do expect gold to come back in and retrace back to about 4,500 in the near term.
And where do you see gold in the long term? Do you see this upward channel going up? Are you calling the upward channel until such time as the upward channel breaks down? Or where do you see the future for gold? Gold's a little trickier for me. I love how silver is industrial which ties it more to economic activity. I also think that the hype in silver, if you compared silver and gold, gold is Bitcoin and silver is the altcoin. So there's so much more hype around silver. They call it the poor man's gold because it's less expensive and so it draws in more retail, which means the pullback on silver should likely be more dramatic. Gold, I still think central banks are going to continue to diversify away from dollars and move towards gold. So there's going to be more demand as gold falls. Now I still think gold eventually is probably coming back to 4,300. I even think a worst case scenario could be around 3,500, but I wouldn't think that gold would go below 3,500.
Amazing. And I mean, you mentioned the dollar, so maybe a good this is a good time to talk about the DXY and talk about how it's breaking down. I mean, it does look typical of a Trump pattern. Exactly what happened in his previous presidency is happening now. The dollar breaks down and then at some point the dollar recovers. But this breakdown again is quite significant because it's broken down below quite a long-term channel, right? Yeah. This is very scary for the US in my opinion because this is really if we break this zone. Basically, this is a longer term zone that goes back to the financial crisis lows. Remember what was going on in the financial crisis. I mean this was Armageddon in the financial markets across the globe but especially here in the United States. Lehman Brothers failing, all of these things going on. And from that low the dollar began to climb this wall. The problem is that we have a pattern in the dollar here which on the weekly chart we have a down move with inside bar action. This is what we call a bear flag and this tells us that this may actually be a legitimate attempt at the dollar and might actually succeed in breaking this longer term trend. It really makes sense if you think about the tariff threats that are every other day at this point. If you think about what's going on with the US debt continuing to climb non-stop, other countries are taking note. The dollar has been that reserve currency. It doesn't end overnight. This is going to be a 10 plus year type event. But when you threaten these other countries and they've adopted your currency as their reserve, at some point they're going to say, "Hey, we need to diversify away because it gives the United States far too much power over us." And that's the process that I think we're seeing in the US dollar. The US dollar specifically began its breakdown just recently, a week ago from Monday when we had that whole threat against those eight European nations over Greenland. And so this to me is telling me something bigger is going on here with other countries including US allies beginning to dump US dollars and diversifying away and probably why a long-term positive for gold is there as well, even though I do think gold still pulls back in the near term but this is not good on the charts.
So I think one of the reasons why the dollar is responding like this is because there was an indication that the Fed may be selling dollars and buying Japanese yen to stop the unwind of the Japanese cash and carry trade. The reason why they're doing that is because Japan is the largest holder of US treasuries. And if Japan starts unwinding the US Treasury position, that could be really bad for the US Treasuries. And I think that Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell and Trump are actually quite united here that that's a really bad outcome for the US. And that's probably why they're doing it. You mentioned the bear flag. I absolutely think one of the charts that we have to talk about is the 10-year yield in the US. I mean, the Japanese 10-year yield is crazy. It's already had this massive move up, but there was a specific level here that was keeping the 10-year under wraps. We broke out. We've obviously seen a pullback. And notice how you're right, it's coinciding with the pullback in the dollar as if they're trying to support it to bring yields down. But this, as long as we hold this 4.2% on the 10-year yield, this is a breakout on the yields. And again, this goes back to all right, how many countries out there are rushing to buy US debt? If you look 10 years ago, 40% of treasuries were bought by foreign entities. We're now only at 15% and that was a number from months ago. I don't know what it is today, but essentially other countries are shying away from buying our treasuries. And by default, that means yields have to go up in the longer end of the curve.
Amazing. You mentioned the bear flag. I don't like that bear flag formation one bit, that bear flag formation in the DXY. But yeah, I think the harsh reality is that if you look at Bitcoin right now, there's a little bear flag. Bitcoin is printing a little bear flag of its own. Have a look at the Bitcoin chart. I'm very keen to hear your views on Bitcoin and how it's trading. It's been tough since October 10th when Bitcoin diverged and had that big mass liquidation when it diverged from all the other markets. Bitcoin's had a rough ride. I know you've been watching on the sides. I know you've been short at some of the positions. Kind of want to get your views as to where you think this is going. Yeah. You're right about that. I think what's remarkable here is that if you look at this chart, you were able to pinpoint this high by taking the 2017 high on Bitcoin, connecting it through the highest point here, and look at where Bitcoin topped out. It tried three times. We'll look at the weekly chart here, but basically you have the weekly chart. Three attempts at breaking through this uptrend trend line going back to the 2017 bull market high, this high in 2021, and it couldn't do it. And the key here is is this telling us something about the financial markets overall? Because again people will argue is this digital gold is it a risk asset? Right now it's behaving more like a risk asset than digital gold as we've seen gold go crazy to the upside. But ultimately, you're right about the bear flag. This here, going back to the daily chart, we can see that there was a parallel that was put into play really right in this range here that goes up to these highs and we've now broken that. And you're right, this pattern is almost identical to the dollar pattern. It just hasn't broken on the dollar yet. But there's your bear flag. And this tells us we're likely going lower. Now, the question I think we're all wondering is, well, where could this go? And for me, this is an interesting one. A lot of this depends on how bad the US financial markets and global markets get overall. If we see a 30% or 40% correction in the stock market, Bitcoin's probably going a lot lower. If we see a more muted correction, 10, 15, or 20%, I think Bitcoin starts to find support at the previous cycle highs. So, if we look historically, look at all this support here back in 2024 before the latest breakout. And then we go back to the 2021 bull market high here as well. And then if we go out to 2017, I'm going to flip over to the weekly chart. What we can see is that that former cycle when we topped out in 2021, we basically came down to the highs of 2017, we did go slightly lower. And so if you have a muted, let's say 10 or 20% correction in the stock market, I think we bottom out on Bitcoin between 67,000 and 72,000. If we see a much bigger draw down in risk assets across the board, then it could be much nastier. But right now, I'm projecting out that I'll start buying pretty heavily around that 67,000 to 70,000 range.
So, you mentioned that a big part of it would be a US stock market correction. I guess probably this is a good time to look at the S&P chart. So, the S&P also at the very top of the channel. I mean that channel's actually been going for much longer. It's been going from like 2017 if I'm not mistaken. Right. You could bring it back. The top line could go back even further. You're right about that. The beginning of this channel starts in the COVID low. So, we're at the top now. Now, I guess that the S&P's got two options here. One option is to break through this channel. And if it did break through this channel, then I would say amazing because that would take us into a complete price discovery out of the channel. Great momentum. But if it doesn't, then your line takes us to like 5,500 on the S&P in terms of a correction. Yeah, I think so. Your first major trend line would be the former highs. Former highs from 2024 would become support here. But I think that would just be a stopping point. But all we have to do is really look at the history of this channel. And basically what we do is we go from the low end. We rally to the high end back to the low end. We had the surprise tariff scenario in 2025. We then went to the high end. But we have to assume that essentially we're going to head back to the low end of the channel back down around 5,500 or so on the S&P. And again, the question is how long does that take? In the bear market of 2022, it took a little over a year to bottom out. And so the question is when do we start that decline? And you're right, if for some reason we take out these highs, then you're in price discovery. But as a technician, we can never assume that until it happens. We have to respect resistance just like we respect support until it's broken.
Okay. Let's go a little bit into fundamentals. So what do you think could cause the S&P to break down like that? You mentioned earlier that AI spend bubble. I know that you're well aware that Trump's going to appoint a new Fed chair. I guess no matter who the Fed chair is, and by the way, right now the front runner for that Fed chair position is Rick Rieder. So he's the top guy. But I guess doesn't matter who actually gets it. I guess that whoever it is has got the mandate from Trump, if you want to be the Fed chair, you got to do what I say and that is you got to cut rates and you got to feed this economy with lots of stimulus. On that backdrop, what do you see correcting the markets? Like, you got Trump in power potentially a new Fed chair. They're talking about GDP growth of five or 6% which for America is absurd. I get it for emerging markets, but for America five or 6% growth in GDP is absurd. I'm wondering if you actually look at the fundamentals to say look this might be the root cause of the markets actually coming down. Yeah. So the first thing is you're right about the GDP numbers. They're incredible numbers. But if you ask the average person here in the United States are they feeling a great economy? They would say they feel closer to a recession than an expansionary period. And that's just part of that is inflation. Inflation has gone up. We're still seeing inflation. Granted it's kind of like 2.8% now. But the factors for me that would cause this. So number one, a new Fed chairman can't make policy on their own. It's a vote between the current members on the Fed board, voting members on the Fed board. So ultimately, you could get a very dovish Fed chair in there and it could still be that there's no cuts in the Fed funds rate or not as many as the market expects. Number two, and that's why Trump doesn't want Jerome Powell there. And that's probably why Jerome Powell received a subpoena because Trump doesn't want Jerome Powell as part of that board and his term ends in 2028, February 2028. That could be one of the reasons. Give me your number two. 100% right. Because if he's a voting member and he doesn't vote to cut rates and the others follow suit, I think that could be one of the issues here that we're not expecting. There could be a little bit of a mini revolt on the Federal Reserve. Someone comes in and starts demanding these cuts, the other people are going to band around Jerome Powell even though he's not the Fed chair and could say, "Hey, no, we're not going to vote for these cuts and therefore the market doesn't get it." Now, listen, if the economy weakens, the Fed will cut. There's one thing I know about Jerome Powell is he's always been very data driven in that respect. Whether he's been right or not, that's a different argument, but that's been the facts. Now, the other thing here is this: look at the price of silver, copper, and cattle prices. We're seeing more and more inflationary pressures and I think this is what's going to surprise the market in the second half of the year is that you're going to have inflation start to creep up due to all these input costs and at the same time the Fed is going to want to cut rates or at least there's going to be pressure and they're not going to be able to. And I think ultimately that's going to drive long-end rates like the 10-year higher instead of lower. So we all assume rates are going to go down like mortgage rates should go down. Wrong. They're based off the 10-year, the 20-year, and the 30-year, which is market driven, not Fed controlled. And so, again, there's a lot of surprises here that could flip the script in the second half of 2026 and cause that market to have this big correction.
What other charts are you looking at? So, we've covered the S&P, the DXY, gold, and silver charts. What else are you looking at? Yeah, I mean you have to look at some of these charts like Nvidia which to me is continuing to show relative weakness. Here we have a market that's essentially near or at all-time highs and Nvidia is up today but it's continuing to struggle. I have this trend line here, but really what we're just keeping an eye on is this trend line here to see if it breaks to the downside. But for me it's more of watching like today we heard Micron is building a new memory chip plant in Singapore. The stock is up. It's above key resistance here. But at the same time, building out more plants means more memory chips coming on the market, which is going to drive margins lower. And I think that's going to be the story in the second half is that margins from these earnings reports are going to start to come down and the market's not pricing that in yet. And again, that's going to be the wakeup call in the tech sector and potentially the AI bubble. In addition, look at Oracle. Oracle was a high flyer. All their data centers, their earnings move and look, all the stock has done has gone down because again, they've spent hundreds of billions in debt they've racked up. And the question is by the time they get these data centers online, the chips that they bought currently from Nvidia are going to be old generations of the chip and they've already spent all this money. This technology is moving so quickly that a lot of these companies that are spending so much money now without the power to run the data centers without all these other factors are going to be left in the wake with a big bill at the end of this. So if you take the Oracle chart and you overlay the Bitcoin chart onto the Oracle chart that's actually the same chart. And then if you put the Meta chart on top of that then what you'll see is that Meta has exactly the same chart. So that's the Oracle chart and the Bitcoin chart. You can see that that's pretty much a mirror image of a chart. Yeah. You're right. It's the same chart. What does that tell us more than anything? It tells us money flow. Money flow is exiting right all together this group. And again you're talking about these companies that are Meta is involved in data centers and we know Oracle is and all these other players. Yeah. So it's pretty interesting because you do have some players that are running things like Google is at all-time highs. Nvidia is doing very well. But then you have this other class of tech stocks which also started to correct somewhere around October and that is exactly when Bitcoin started to correct. And I'm really trying to work out what the correlation is. Why is Bitcoin behaving like one of those stocks and not behaving like an Nvidia or a Google?
Yeah. And to be honest, aside from just a warning sign for me of the markets, it's really tough to know why crypto is looked at by the bigger population now which are buying ETFs as a place where AI is going to be driving crypto. I mean, maybe there's a connection there, but I ultimately think it's more of a what's moving. There's this feeling that silver is the hot thing right now. You have two types of people in crypto. You have the HODLers, the people that will go down with the ship no matter what. And then you have the people just trying to get rich and we know there's a big group of those in crypto. And I think those people have just rotated out of Bitcoin at this point. It's boring. Bitcoin's become boring. So I have to ask you a question. Because you're not a crypto bro, it's probably you're probably a good person to ask this question to. And I think the question is, what is Bitcoin? Is it a store of value? Is it a technology? Is it a risk asset? Is it a meme? Does Wall Street play Bitcoin as a meme to market movements? What is Bitcoin to everyone that's not a crypto bro? I mean, the price action dictates that. And I think for right now it's a risk asset that a lot of people who bought institutionalize it. The problem with that is everyone bought some IBIT in their portfolio and it stopped moving and it started to go down and so they started to sell it. And then the underlying ETF has to dump it as well. And so I think that's been driving it because it's not been the hot play here. But ultimately, I think it's a risk asset that eventually does become the digital gold, the gold store of safety. If it doesn't become the gold store of safety, I don't know what it is. And so it needs to eventually get there. It is not there yet as clearly as we can see with gold's price versus Bitcoin. So that's what I said. I said every day that gold runs and Bitcoin doesn't run to me is a negative day for Bitcoin because it means we're clinging on to this narrative that has been drummed into us by people like Jerome Powell by people like Larry Fink. But every day that gold goes up and Bitcoin continues to go down, it does itself a disservice about the fact that it's not a store of value. And the problem is that if it's not a store of value, then I don't know what it is. If it's not a store of value, then I have to put my hand on my heart and say this is a memecoin that Wall Street plays when they're feeling rich and when they're feeling poor, they sell it first and they go buy other assets. And so I really think that we need Bitcoin to make a move now. I think if it does have one green candle and it does get back to the 120s or wherever it gets to, then everything is forgiven, all the negative FUD goes away. But I think the advertising here is in the price move. If we want that to happen, we need a price move to happen. And unfortunately, since October 10th, we haven't had much appetite from speculators to bring us the price move that we need.
I 100% agree with you on this. If we get a correction in the markets that's where we need Bitcoin. Maybe Bitcoin goes down but we don't want to see it go down more than the markets because it's already come down and so what you want to see is that people say the stock market looks toppy, it's starting to correct, we're down 10% on the S&P. You want to see money rotate into Bitcoin. Maybe that's the play. Maybe it's away from stocks into Bitcoin versus gold being too much of a safe haven long-term asset to really be a competition from Bitcoin at this point. Just a thought. I think I agree with you, Gareth. Thank you very much, my friend. Listen, first of all, you're looking good, bro. You look healthy. You look a lot more relaxed. It's the fresh air. Amazing, brother. Good to see you and I'm sure we'll do this again very soon. I look forward to it, Ran. Thank you for having me, buddy. Cool, buddy. Cheers.
All right, so we finally had Gareth Soloway back on and he gave us great perspectives as to where the charts are going. I'm kind of aligned with him on most of these things. I think if Bitcoin does break down, I do think that 70,000 comes into play. And so I think that what we want is we want Bitcoin to actually pump above the $98,000 level so we can invalidate that thesis. Just before I go for those of you who want to trade and you want to trade a Hyperliquid trade, I've got a good trade for you guys. If you open an account on Blofin and you can see there's a link over here to open that account. Basically you can get a $300 Hyperliquid voucher. It's a three-day only deal. There's the link over there. Use that link and then there's a video to show you how to actually redeem that. So, if you want to do that, do that. And yeah, I'll see you guys again tomorrow. Until then, trade well, my friends.