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The situation that occurred yesterday has caused many people to ask many questions. Regarding the war in the Middle East, specifically Israel's attack, it must be considered a top global gas production source. It is also considered the crucial heart for Iran, which is the South Fulan of Qatar. This has caused a complete change in the trend of the global gas market. This was Iran attacking because, before this, Israel attacked them first. So, it became an attack and counter-attack, ultimately destroying important global energy sources. There was also news from the IEA, or International Energy Agency, that stated this is the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, apart from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And what many people are currently following is that if the war does not stop here and continues to escalate, and Iran has a clear objective, they will destroy the economy in the Persian Gulf, specifically in the UAE. Everyone will be affected. What will suffer are we in Asia, who use both gas and import oil. How much will it be affected? Because of the recent Fed meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already signaled that they are watching this closely, as it could affect inflation rising and the interest rate cuts they had previously forecast for this year, perhaps 1-2 times or not at all. And it could also affect the assets we invest in today. We have invited this person back again because, among analysts, I consider Pig Moo to be an expert in oil, both in the international and domestic oil markets. Today, I have asked Pig Moo to analyze for us again how much this incident will affect the LNG market and the oil market, after Iran's attack on the gas processing plant, South Fulan, which Iran attacked. Alright, Pig Moo is with us now. Mr. Suwatsin Sadok, Managing Director of KOBEC Securities Company. Pig Moo, hello. >> Hello, Khun Nao and everyone. >> Yes, Pig Moo, why today did we invite Pig Moo to analyze the energy price situation? Today, we will link energy prices directly to global political conflicts. But recently, there was a report from the consultant Wood Mackenzie, which said that Iran's attack on the gas processing plant, Fulan, of Qatar, has completely changed the trend of the gas market. And the IEA also said that this is the biggest supply disruption in the history of the oil market. Pig Moo, from your perspective, how do you see the impact of this? They say this is a major historical change. >> I think this is a major change. In the past, we focused mainly on oil, with less emphasis on gas. >> But this time? >> Both oil and gas. Therefore, what you started with is correct. It is a major structural change. That is clear. >> Uh-huh. >> How is it? The next point is that today, I think this game can be viewed from multiple perspectives, or rather, from several angles. Let's start with geopolitics. >> And it will be directly related to energy. >> Geopolitically, there is a struggle involving four major groups, four major parts. The first group is the United States, of course. The second is Israel. The third is >> Iran. And the fourth is >> Uh >> What is it? The entire Persian Gulf. >> Oh, okay. >> Which owns the energy. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, you can list them all, from Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, all of them. The four or five main countries, let's talk about the main GCC, four or five countries. >> Yes. >> Now, what is happening is that this war was started by the United States and Israel, because they want to overthrow the Iranian regime. Iran is the last country, I'll use this term, Iran is the last country that obstructs Israel and the United States from completely dominating and occupying the Middle East. I'll use this term. >> Uh-huh. >> Because why? Because Iran, oh, sorry, Israel and the United States have overthrown, have overthrown four countries that previously stood in their way. >> This is brief. First is Libya. >> Second is >> Iraq. Third is Lebanon. Fourth is Syria. >> Uh-huh. >> If we observe, these three or four countries have always been at odds with Israel and the United States. >> But since the year 2000, starting from 2003 when Iraq was overthrown, 2000, uh, 2009, 2001 when Libya was overthrown, and then Syria, then Lebanon, these four countries have been wiped off the board. Therefore, only Iran remains. Now, this is the main objective for Israel, because Israel is not interested in energy dominance. But they are interested in occupying Middle Eastern territories to build, to create, the Greater Israel. This is Israel's objective, and also the religious aspect, where they talk about a Messiah coming. I'll skip that because it's a religious matter. >> Uh-huh. >> But in simple terms, Israel has this objective. >> Uh-huh. >> They want to occupy and control the Middle East. So, think about it, if Iran is gone, Israel wants to be the sole dominant power, because the remaining >> Uh, GCC states, they don't have much capability to fight, right? >> And importantly, they are rich. >> And they are even somewhat friendly with Israel. >> Uh-huh. >> Uh, yes. >> Now, this is a fact, and there are US military bases, so no need to ask if they are friendly with the US. >> Yes. >> So, this means that if Iran is overthrown, Israel >> Uh-huh. >> Can be called the big brother, controlling the entire Middle East, right? >> Now. >> Another scenario, this is interesting. >> Uh-huh. >> Many people say the US is not involved in this war, and gets nothing out of it. That's wrong. >> Because >> Uh, have you forgotten that the US is the largest oil producer in the world? The US exports 10 million barrels of oil, but imports 7 million barrels. So, today, the US is still net, net, about 3 million, let's say. But what is the point? The point is that the US today, honestly, they are not, they are not suffering from a shortage of oil. They are not suffering from a shortage of gas. The only thing they are afraid of suffering from is inflation. >> Uh-huh. >> From energy prices. Have you noticed? But if you compare this with others, such as the world, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the whole world. Most are suffering from potential oil and gas shortages. >> Oh. >> What does that mean? And the US is the largest exporter of LNG. >> In the world. >> Uh-huh. >> Larger than Qatar, larger than Australia. Number 1 exporter in the world. The world trades LNG. Exporting LNG is only for export, right? LNG is not for domestic use. >> Because if it's for domestic use, it means gas through pipelines, no need to convert to LNG, which is a waste of money. But if you convert to LNG, it means you must export it. >> Uh-huh. >> The world exports about 400 million tons of LNG, about 450 million tons, let's say. >> 400 million tons. >> Do you know that almost a quarter of that comes from the US? Oh. >> That much? Last year, 2025, the US has an LNG production capacity of 100 million, 102 million tons. >> Uh. >> That much? >> Isn't it Qatar, Pig Moo? Isn't it Qatar? >> No, no. See? If you look at it another way, you'll see that Qatar has a production capacity of 77 million tons. >> Oh, wow, over 100. >> And this one, the one you're talking about, this >> Yes. >> This is a large part of theirs. >> Last, yes, this is, this is a large part of theirs. >> When they say it's 20% of the world, out of 450, what is 20%? >> It's 70-80 million, right? >> Is that correct? >> Yes. >> That's it. Because Qatar's gas there, the one we're talking about, has 14 trains. A train means a unit. >> Uh-huh. >> In processing gas into LNG. >> In layman's terms, LNG is liquid gas. >> Uh-huh. >> By lowering the temperature to minus 100 degrees Celsius. >> Uh. >> You take that gas and make it minus 100 degrees Celsius, which is like putting it in a refrigerator at over 100 degrees below zero. >> It becomes LNG. >> Think about how much energy it takes to get to minus 100 degrees Celsius. >> Our refrigerators, at most, what is it? Minus 5, 5 to 10 degrees, I don't know. >> Uh. >> But this is minus over 100. So, converting gas to LNG uses a tremendous amount of energy. >> In conversion. >> Like using a very cold refrigerator. >> Like that. Now. >> Let's say the scenario is that the world has over 400 million tons. >> Yes. >> The US alone has 100. >> Over 100. >> This is production capacity, but the US already produces a lot. >> Yes. >> And it will continue to increase. This 100 million is not the limit; it will go up to 150, 120, 130. Meanwhile, Qatar currently has about 70-something, let's say 80 million. >> Let's round it up, it's about one-fifth of the world. >> Uh-huh. >> That's what they're talking about. So, Qatar is still smaller than the US. >> Uh-huh. >> Now, let me ask you, Nao, if today, Qatar loses 2 trains, right? Out of 14, it loses 2. Train 6 and Train 4, if I remember correctly. Train 4 >> is sold to Belgium and Italy on a long-term contract. Train 6 >> is sold to China and South Korea. So, the buyers of these 2 trains, these 4 countries, are suffering. >> Uh-huh. >> And does it relate to the US? No. Second, if >> Qatar has a problem, >> Uh-huh. >> The price goes up, right? Recently, the spot LNG, which we call Japania >> Market, JKM. >> Not JKN, JKM. >> Uh-huh. >> JKM has jumped to $23. >> Uh-huh. >> Is it high? Yes, because why? Before the war, this figure was $9. >> Yes. >> But now it has more than doubled. >> Oh, okay. >> But compared to 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the price of this LNG, JKM >> reached $50. >> Uh-huh. >> But it averaged around $30-something. >> Uh-huh. >> So, what does that mean? Today, the LNG price has not gone up as high as in 2022. >> Uh-huh. >> Not yet, but it's close. It's close. >> Because the average of $30-something, and now it's over $20. It's close. >> Uh-huh. >> But the point you asked is, how much does it affect energy prices? Oh, it has a very high impact. It means gas will be expensive from now on. >> Uh-huh. >> The chance of it going down to $9 is unlikely. >> Uh-huh. >> It might go down, let's assume, if the war ends, it might go down to $10, $15, something like that. >> Yes. >> $15 is still expensive, because it came from $9, normally. >> Now, you see, you must see two parts. Part one, when the US, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and the US pressured Europe, saying, "Hey, you can't buy Russian gas anymore, buy from me instead." >> Every day. >> And all of Europe now relies on US LNG for 60%. >> Oh, so the US gets revenue, and the price goes up, right, Pig Moo? >> Yes, and the profit, if I were to estimate, the profit is doubled or more. Suppose your cost is about $6-7, $8. Now you sell it for over $20. >> Yes. >> How much profit do you make? >> Yes. >> But they won't tell you. >> Uh-huh. >> Have you noticed that you rarely see news about US LNG companies and their profits? You never see it. >> But they are listed, right? They trade. >> They are in the market, but why are they quiet? >> Uh-huh. >> It's like >> Eating quietly. >> Like arms stocks, you don't hear much about them. >> Yes. >> Unless you specifically search for them, they might come up. >> But if you just sit there and follow the news, why don't they appear in front of you? >> Uh-huh. >> This is clear, who controls the media. >> Uh-huh. >> And when you make a lot of profit, will you tell people? >> Uh-huh. >> Yes. >> See? Now. >> Pig Moo, these over 100 million tons, how much does the US use domestically and how much does it export? LNG. >> Oh, they export. They probably export more than half. If I remember correctly, more than half. Because the US >> Or almost, I misspoke. They export everything. Not almost half, because as I said earlier. >> Gas used domestically >> Yes. >> Is through pipelines. >> Uh-huh. >> It's not in LNG form. >> Uh-huh. >> So, when we talk about LNG, it means every unit is exported. >> Uh-huh. >> Do you understand? Because the graph I mentioned earlier, you convert it to liquid, which is LNG. Because LNG stands for Liquefied Natural Gas. >> Uh-huh. >> You need a tremendous amount of energy to make it minus 100 degrees Celsius. >> Uh-huh. >> So, if you don't want to export and use it domestically, why would you waste so much energy? Do you know that in the US, for example, if >> The price of gas at the wellhead is $3-4, $5. >> And the cost of converting to LNG alone, you take >> It's almost equal to the cost of gas. >> Yes. >> So, converting to LNG almost doubles the cost. >> Uh-huh. >> Why would you convert if you're not exporting? >> Uh-huh. >> But once you convert, your cost doubles, let's say to $8. >> $10. >> But today you sell it for over $20. >> Uh-huh. >> How much profit do you make? You calculate it. >> Yes. >> So, to summarize your question, how much does the US export? They export all 100. >> And who are the main customers? Pig Moo, the main customers. >> The main customers of the US are >> Europe. >> Europe is the main customer. >> The main customer. Because why? Because Europe is buying instead of Russia. >> Yes, uh-huh. >> But they also export to other countries, like China, a little bit. >> Uh-huh. >> So-and-so, they export everywhere, but Europe >> Is the main one. >> Uh-huh. >> Is the main one. >> So, what does that mean? >> Both oil and gas, we must say, today the US is getting very rich. >> Oh, they waged a war for 200 billion dollars. >> This should be worth it. It should be worth it. I don't know if it's worth it because I haven't estimated how much they got. >> Yes. >> But it's probably not that much. I mean, but it's private companies, right? The ones who benefit are private companies. But who suffers? >> If we compare it to Thailand. >> The companies that benefit might be PTT, or something like that, right? But who suffers? >> The government. >> Uh-huh. >> Who pays? The government, right? >> Whose pocket is it? >> The people's pocket. >> Oh, do you understand? >> Uh-huh. >> In simple terms, if you look at it from a slight conspiracy theory perspective. >> What is the military-industrial complex? It's the owners of weapons companies, energy companies, Wall Street, right? Let's assume, let's assume, let's take these two. They profit immensely. >> Uh-huh. >> But on the other side, the American people who pay, we're talking about, oh, how much do they pay for the war, how many billions of dollars have they paid? >> Yes. >> This doesn't concern them, right? They benefit. >> The government pays. >> And pays whom? >> Pays arms companies. >> Ah. >> And buys things, etc. Yes. So, it's like left pocket, right pocket. So, it comes back to >> What is this scenario? >> Israel fights for what? Fights for ideology, fights for its influence, right? But the US fights for what? >> Uh, benefits, revenue for the country, benefits and wealth. However, >> However, today the US is looking for >> How to withdraw? >> Uh-huh. >> To make it look good. This is difficult. Entering is easy, but exiting is difficult. >> This is the trap the US is in right now. >> Uh, brother. >> But along the way, they get rich. It's okay, they profit. >> Okay, now, let me ask Pig Moo, this time, it affects the so-called oil wells, the energy sector, especially gas, LNG, or oil. What do you see as the worst-case scenario, in terms of energy prices, all included? What is the worst we will face this year? And after this, how long will it take to rebuild, to review again? And the oil price that Pig Moo mentioned, it might not return to what it was. This analysis says that global LNG might return to 2021 levels. This is what they analyzed. The IEA. What do you think, Pig Moo? What is the worst-case scenario we will face? >> It was 2021, before the war. >> Uh-huh. >> Look at spot LNG. Before the war in Ukraine in February 2022, global LNG, JKM, it was $3-4. >> Uh-huh. >> And after the war, it jumped to $50, then softened to $30-40, and then gradually decreased. >> But since 2022, 2023, 2024, the JKM LNG price has never been below $9. >> Uh-huh. >> What does that mean? New. >> Look again. >> $3-something, $50, down to $30-something, and then tick-tick-tick down to $9, $10, $11, $12. This means the base has increased by about 3-4 times. >> From before the Russia-Ukraine war. >> Right? This is JKM LNG. >> Yes. >> Now, and this war? Let's take the latest one I mentioned, from over $10, right? It's a new base, right? >> Yes. >> I think the next base, after this war subsides, when and how it subsides, I don't know. >> That needs further analysis. But let's assume it subsides. I believe that the damage caused to Qatar, at least 2 trains out of 14, right? At least, and definitely damaged, 2 trains will take time to repair. >> At least 3-5 years. >> Uh-huh. >> That will definitely be lost. >> Uh-huh. >> I think the new LNG price will be at least $15. >> Oh, wow. How many times? $13 is >> Yes, it will increase by 30-50% from the original base. >> Uh-huh. >> The original was $3-4, so it increased to, let's say $10, which is almost a fraction more, right? This was from the Russia-Ukraine war, not this. Then, what happened? The cow hasn't even recovered, and the buffalo comes in. From $10, now it will jump to $10, $35. And this is >> $35. $3-3.5 >> $13-15. >> Oh, $13-15. >> So, I think it will increase from the original base by at least 30-50%. >> Uh-huh. >> This is, let's call it, the normal state. >> Yes. >> If the war causes damage, suppose tomorrow, oh, there's another fight, Israel attacks somewhere else, Iran retaliates again, you might face even more. >> Uh-huh. >> This is based on the latest situation, the damage to 2 trains out of Qatar's 14 trains. Let's just consider this first. >> Yes. >> Don't include others yet, right? So, global LNG from now on will not be cheap. What does that mean? It means the US, the largest LNG exporter in the world, as I mentioned earlier. >> The US has an LNG production capacity of 100. >> Let's say, roughly 100 million tons. >> Australia has 82. >> Uh-huh. >> Qatar has almost 80. >> Uh-huh. >> Russia also has a lot, ranked fourth, but Russia has about 3-7 million. >> A big difference. >> Oh, uh-huh. >> Let's use these figures. So, Nao, do you know who the fifth country is? >> Who? >> Malaysia. >> Oh. >> Interesting. Malaysia has an LNG production capacity of 32 million tons. >> Uh-huh. >> Thailand, Thailand imports about 8-10 million tons of LNG. >> Uh-huh. >> The whole country? >> Per year. >> Yes, per year. So, you see, we have contracts to buy from Australia, some from Malaysia, some from Qatar, and so on. And we will do this. And the price we have secured, Pig Moo, if the current price goes up, what price is our purchase contract based on, normally? >> It's like this, LNG has two parts. Let's say. >> The part that Thailand has secured, Thailand, let's say, we have secured contracts, which are called contract prices, based on long-term contracts of 10 years, 20 years, etc. The price usually has a formula, such as being linked to fuel oil, linked to Brent oil, linked to Henry Hub. So, it will fluctuate according to the formula. >> Yes. >> But it's not, it's not according to the spot price, right? >> Uh-huh. >> So, it goes up because oil goes up, but it should go up less than spot LNG. >> Uh-huh. >> But for example, today, when oil was $70-80, LNG under contract should have been around $10, $11. >> Uh-huh. >> Around $10. But today it should have increased to about $13, $14. >> Uh-huh. >> This is according to the contract. For the 5.2 million tons that Thailand has. Another part that we import on a spot basis is uncertain. >> Depending on usage, market availability, price. >> This is where the competition is. >> Oh, okay. >> And the figure I mentioned earlier, over $20, this is what will be used in the spot market. >> Oh. >> Thailand has to import about 4-5 million tons from the spot market. >> Uh-huh. >> And there are 3-4 importers, you know, Nao. >> 1 is from PTT. >> About 3 million tons. >> Yes. >> 2 is from Gulf. >> Ah. >> 3 is from B.Grimm. >> Uh-huh. >> 4 is from EGAT. >> Uh-huh. >> There are 4 main ones. >> Uh-huh. >> Which, combined, should be about 5 million tons. >> Uh-huh. >> 5-6 million, approximately. So, Thailand will import about 5-10 million tons of gas, plus or minus. >> Uh-huh. >> Now, what Thailand can do is to ask Malaysia, because Malaysia is the closest to us. >> And the price should be good, right? >> The price should also be good. And actually, PTT has invested in LNG projects in Malaysia with Petronas quite a bit. >> Uh-huh. >> Quite a bit. This is one of the reasons why I believe that Thailand's gas might be less affected. >> Uh-huh. >> It will be affected, of course, but it will be less affected. But if you're not talking about Thailand alone, but the world, from today onwards, gas will definitely be expensive. >> Uh-huh. >> 30-40%. The 30-40% I mentioned, right? >> Yes. >> Now, who will be tired? South Korea, Japan. >> Taiwan. >> Europe. >> Uh-huh. >> The top importers in the world, there are about 4-5 countries, and China. >> Uh-huh. >> China too, but China >> uses about 9% of its total energy for gas. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> China's electricity, 50% is coal-based. >> Uh-huh. >> This is about China. >> Yes. >> So, China doesn't use much gas for electricity production. >> Yes. >> Not much. Thailand, on the other hand, uses about 60% of its electricity from gas. >> As fuel for production. >> Do you know how much the US uses? Almost 40%. >> Oh, and what is the rest, Pig Moo? Fuel is oil or what? >> It's coal, nuclear, about over 10%. >> Almost 10%. >> Renewable energy is mixed in, like this. >> Oh, but our coal is decreasing, right? Because we fear pollution. Nuclear is even less. >> So, we rely on gas a lot. >> Yes. >> And renewable energy, right? >> Uh-huh. >> Therefore, Thailand has a risk with gas. And what you asked. >> Yes. >> From now on, the damage to Qatar's trains 4 and 6. >> What is the scariest thing? >> It will cause the gas price to increase its base from what I mentioned earlier. Even if it is at this level today, at over $20, even if the war subsides, it will come down, but it will not come down >> to the original level. >> Because why? The structural damage has occurred. >> It needs to be rebuilt, added to the price, something like that, Pig Moo? >> Definitely. Because why? Think simply. Qatar, the third largest in the world, let's say roughly 80 million tons, out of over 400 million tons, that's about 20%, right? >> Right? Am I correct? >> This is 80 million tons, from 14 trains. But actually, each train is not equal, but let's simplify it. 14 trains means you have 80 million, so each train is about 5 million tons, 5-6 million, right? >> Uh-huh. >> On average, right? Am I correct? So, what does that mean? The 2 trains that were hit, how much is lost? 10 million. >> Yes. >> It's gone. >> Uh-huh. >> At least 3 years. >> Uh-huh. >> Because why? Because Qatar says they need at least 3-5 years to repair. >> Oh. >> So, the world, which used to have a production capacity of 500 million, almost 500 million tons, but we trade about 470. >> Yes. >> It's not 100% production. >> Uh-huh. >> You have 500, but you don't produce 100%, so it's not 500, right? It's over 400. >> Yes, uh-huh. >> 10 million is gone. >> Uh-huh. >> Gone permanently. So, what does that mean? >> It means the supply is gone structurally, right? >> Oh, yes. >> It's not, it's not gone for 3 months and will come back. It's not like that. >> Ah, this is gone. >> But >> It needs 3-5 years to rebuild. >> But it's interesting, you know why? Because the US has many projects to expand >> LNG production capacity and exports. Before this, people thought LNG prices would go down. Before this war, they thought it would go down. Because the new US supply is large. >> Yes. >> If I remember correctly, it's 30-50 million tons. Think about how much that is. But suddenly, or rather, when this war happened, it's like the US LNG competitor disappeared, right? This is probably correct. 10 million is gone, and now another 10 million is gone. I don't know. But I know for sure that the US will not be affected, because they are on the US side, what does it have to do with them? >> Okay, so they can control inflation, Pig Moo, but there's news that diesel fuel per gallon has also increased in the US. >> Right now, they are not worried about gas, but more about oil. >> Uh-huh. >> Because oil is what Americans use. Americans' main mode of transportation is driving. >> Uh-huh. >> But if you talk about other countries, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. >> Or electric cars. >> China. >> It's trains. >> Yes. >> And some ships. >> Yes. >> But trains are the main thing. >> Uh-huh. >> Cars are secondary, right? Right? >> Uh-huh. >> But the US is not. >> Uh-huh. >> The US's railway system is poor and has not been developed for decades. What does that mean? It means that oil prices will have a significant impact on the US. >> Uh-huh. >> Much more, perhaps even more than China. >> Yes. >> Oh, okay. >> So, gasoline, which is their main product, is like Thai gasoline. >> Yes. >> Before the war, it was $2.77 per gallon.
Now it's up to about 4 dollars. >> Uh-huh. >> How many percent did it go up, Kudi? >> 40-50%. Still 2.7, 7 up 4. >> But they are the producers and the biggest oil users in the world, as I told you. Why are they in short supply? Why is the price going up? >> They are not in short supply according to the price. >> They are not in short supply, but the price is going up. >> According to the global market, right? It's pegged to the global market. >> According to WTI. >> Uh-huh, okay. >> Actually, I should tell you first, they have gone up by a little. Because WTI has gone up a lot. >> Uh. >> Uh-huh. >> Ah, you can think of it this way. Gasoline, right now, if oil, if gasoline has gone up by almost double. >> Uh-huh. >> Like from over 60 dollars, gasoline has gone up to over 100, over 100. >> If 120 is double, it means it has gone up by 70-80%, right? This is gasoline, but WTI oil has gone up less. >> Uh-huh. >> Let's not help you, go observe. Right now, the gap between the price of oil and WTI is wide, right? >> More than 10 dollars. What does that mean? It means the US is also suppressing its own oil price to some extent. >> Uh-huh. >> That's why WTI is low. >> Uh-huh. >> When it's lower than the global market, let's put it that way. It's lower than the global market, but it's still going up. >> Uh. >> Uh-huh. >> It's still going up because before this, it was around 60 dollars. Now it's gone up to over 90 dollars. It's gone up by over 50%. But you took 2, 2.7 that I just mentioned, right? >> It's gone up by about 3.9 now. >> It's about 3.99 now. It's gone up by about a dollar and something. So it's gone up by almost 50%, right? >> Not yet, about 40%, let's say. 30-40%. >> So that means gasoline has gone up less than WTI. >> And WTI has also gone up less than... >> Yes. >> What does that mean? It means the US is doing its best, controlling every level. But controlling every level is still not enough. Why? Because gas is still up 30-40%. And gasoline is 6-7% of the CPI. >> Uh-huh. >> This is a direct calculation. >> Yes. >> Directly, because gasoline is used to calculate the CPI. >> But what about indirectly? I don't know about indirectly. It's like you asked, does it affect... >> How much are transportation costs in the US? What is it? This is another matter to discuss, right? So, if gasoline goes up by 40-50%, I think US inflation will rise by at least 0.4-0.5%. This means, for example, if you set it at 2.4 last month. >> Uh-huh. >> You might see 2.8, 3.0, 0. >> Uh-huh. >> And what do you think the Fed will do? >> Raise interest rates. >> Of course. How will interest rates go down? I'm still confused about people saying there's still hope for one more time. How will they go down? I can't imagine, unless the war ends. >> Really? Ends, meaning it ends? >> Ends, and oil must also go down. >> No, if it ends, oil will drop to 90. Like this, it's not possible. Like this, inflation will continue to rise. >> It needs to drop to about 70-75, then it's okay. >> Uh-huh. >> Ah, like this, it's okay. But if you let it stay at 90-100, whether the war is over or not, oh, it's definitely finished. I think this year, in my belief, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates is higher than the possibility of lowering interest rates. >> That's bad news, P'Moo. This is bad news for American stocks. >> Well, I believe America, I don't know, in my belief. >> Yes. >> The second half will be tough. And right now, I think Trump is very clear. Oh, he's pulled out all the tricks and strategies to suppress oil prices. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? To the point of lifting sanctions on Iran and Russia, I think that's it. >> And forced, I don't know if forced or not, told the IEA, Europe, to release 400 million from reserves. They haven't released it yet, but they are about to release 400 million barrels. The US itself released over 100 million. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? And then told Japan, told Korea, told everyone. Help each other, release all reserves. Help, help release some, so that oil doesn't rise too much. >> Ah. >> But what I'm going to say is, and another thing you should observe, Israel doesn't care about energy prices. What do they care about? They care about how to make Iran go bankrupt, how to make others go bankrupt with them. If I say it simply, if I die, everyone must die with me, something like that. And they try to drag the US out of this predicament. Look at what? Why did they suddenly attack Susa? Susa, I don't know if it's Susa or Susa, I can't read it correctly. >> That, ah, the parliament, why did Israel suddenly attack? I asked, I said, I don't know about this. >> Uh-huh. >> Why? This kind of attack, they know that after attacking there, it's gas, 80-90% of Iran. Iran is a country that uses gas to produce electricity, 80-90%. >> Oh my. So they intentionally created trouble. Destroyed. Do you understand? People need to understand first that it's not just gas. >> Uh-huh. If Iran's gas is less, but if Iran's gas is less, and they use it to produce electricity, say 20%, that's not much, right? >> Yes. >> But Iran is a country that relies heavily on gas for electricity production, almost the most in the world, I don't know if it's the most in the world or not. It's 80-90%. >> Uh-huh. >> So, if gas disappears, the country will have a blackout. >> Otherwise, they have to use oil to generate electricity, which is very expensive. >> Uh-huh. The whole city will go dark. >> Because Iran doesn't have LNG. >> So, Israel intentionally shut down, P'Moo? >> Yes. >> Israel intentionally shut down Iran. >> It's similar to that. >> Uh-huh. >> That's what I said. Israel doesn't care if oil prices are high or not. They don't care. They only care about destroying Iran. The US is afraid of oil prices rising, right? Otherwise, why would you suddenly come out and say, "We're not involved"? Secondly, Iran, the US, Israel, doing this is not right. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? This is what they wrote, roughly. If it were in Thai, they would say, "You didn't consult us." >> Uh, no, right? Next time there won't be any. Right? So they must have discussed it already. >> Uh-huh. >> What does that reflect? It reflects that this game is a game of wits. Right now, besides the war, because Iran is trying to prolong the war. Iran doesn't want to win the war, but wants to win in a way that makes the US lose and retreat. >> Yes, that's what they call winning, but not winning a war in the normal sense. >> Yes. >> Not like that. And Israel wants to make Iran go bankrupt as much as possible, to kill as many leaders as possible. >> This is what they are doing. >> And America is trying to find a way out. But on one hand, on the other hand, behind the scenes, what is it? Someone is profiting. Profiting from what? >> Profiting. >> Profiting. Yes, profiting from selling oil, selling gas, profiting, profiting from selling weapons, profiting. >> Uh-huh. >> This is the scene you are seeing today. >> Uh-huh. P'Moo, let me ask you one more thing. The price of LNG is definitely going up, but will it reach the point of shortage? Is there a chance of a shortage? >> A shortage, is there a chance? I think if it's 10 million tons, it's not yet a shortage. If it's just 10 million first, but there's another part that's stuck in the Strait of Hormuz and can't get out yet. >> Uh-huh. >> Actually, this 10 million tons. >> Yes. >> It's also the part that's blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, right? >> Yes. >> You realize, right? So, Qatar, which sends 70-80 million LNG, has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 10 million is gone. Even if the strait opens today, this 10 million won't come. >> Uh-huh. >> But the remaining 60-70 million, if the Strait of Hormuz opens, or if Iran says okay, let the ships pass. I don't remember if it's UAE or Qatar, the one going to Pakistan, it passed recently. As far as I remember the example, it means Iran is also allowing energy ships to pass to other countries. So, the chance of a shortage might not be that severe yet. But if in the next stage, we hear news that someone attacks another 3-4 targets, then I think there will be a real problem. >> Uh-huh. >> There will be a real problem. It means you might see LNG at 30-40 dollars. >> Uh-huh. >> And you might see, uh, uh, yes, and then there might be a shortage as you asked. >> It's very close. It's very close to that point. It means it's on the verge. >> Uh-huh. >> Because you mentioned 10 million. >> Yes. >> Let's consider production capacity only, not transportation, they are different. >> Yes. >> Production capacity only, it's 10 million out of over 400 million, right? >> Yes. >> How much is that? How much is that? >> About 2-3%. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? It's not that much. >> Yes. >> But if you add, suppose some people add the RNG that might not be able to pass through Hormuz, if you add that. >> Uh-huh. >> Then it will be a lot. But I don't think it will be that severe, like the case of Qatar's remaining 60-70 million. >> Can't come out at all. >> I don't think it will be that severe. >> Really? P'Moo, let me ask you another question. What people are talking about, these attacks, factories, but the most feared thing is the image of Aramco. P'Moo, do you remember? The attack on oil pipelines that caused repercussions, especially in Europe. Do you think it's possible in the Gulf War? >> Meaning? >> Like Aramco was hit. >> Meaning attacking oil pipelines, right? >> Yes, yes, attacking oil pipelines. >> Yes, if right now, you attack and attack. Yes. >> Oh, right? Attacking, uh, LNG production plants, let's put it that way. >> Yes, they've attacked everything. >> It's almost complete. >> That's what I'm afraid of, attacking pipelines. If pipelines are... >> Finished, right? Because there's also the Red Sea, which they are afraid of, the Houthi group. And in the Strait of Hormuz, or elsewhere. >> I think it depends on what right now. >> Uh-huh. >> It depends on whether the US can control Israel. >> Uh-huh. Can control it? P'Moo thinks they can control it. >> I'm asking, what is the reason for the incident in Susa and the incident with Qatar's LNG? >> Uh-huh. >> It's because the US couldn't control Israel. >> Right? >> At least at first, when they attacked, right? >> Which the US said they didn't know about and definitely didn't agree with. But they didn't agree because they didn't want oil and gas prices to spike too much. >> Uh-huh. >> They want it to be at a certain level, controllable. Because I mentioned 3 layers earlier. They pushed down the third layer, and it's still high now. >> Yes. >> Now, the question is, is there a chance? If the US really can't control Israel. >> Uh-huh. >> Which right now, I think it's similar. >> Uh-huh. >> Because, because I'm not sure if right now. >> Israel is leading the US, or the US is leading Israel. I'm still wondering. Because many times, I've seen Israel take the initiative, and the US has to follow. >> Uh. >> Isn't that right? Including this war. >> Uh-huh. >> That happened. So I'm wondering, from now on. >> Will Israel be able to control Israel? >> Uh-huh. >> And if they can't control it, and as I said, Israel doesn't really care about the world's losses. They don't care. They only care about what they want. >> So, both have ideology, right P'Moo? Both wouldn't dare to attack Susa. >> Yes. >> Right? The US wouldn't dare. Because the US knows that if they attack, then Israel, then Iran will retaliate, and it will be fatal. >> Uh-huh. >> Everyone will go bankrupt. P'Moo, now the risk. Uh, because of the pipeline routes, the most dangerous ones, what are they? Are there names? Are they strategic points? >> There are actually 2-3 pipelines, especially the East-West pipeline built by Saudi Arabia, which goes out to the Red Sea. I remember the name, they checked it, East-West something. >> Uh-huh. >> This is important. Why? If you cut this off, what does it mean? It means all the eastern side, everything around the gulf, today it still has an outlet through this. It's at full production capacity now. Initially, I think it was 4-5 million barrels per day. That's a lot. >> Uh-huh. >> This pipeline. >> It's 4-5 million barrels, and if it's a pipeline, it's fast, right? It's fast, and then it reaches the port. >> Right? The Red Sea, as you asked. This route will be very important. It will be in Saudi Arabia. Other parts of the country are almost blocked now. There's the Oman route, but Oman is already past Hormuz. >> Uh-huh. >> So it's not much. >> Yes. >> And therefore, this important pipeline is the first route. >> Uh-huh. >> Which will have problems because. >> Goes out to Saudi. >> If you cut this off, the eastern side. >> It will be like almost unable to export. >> Only Oman below and some parts of Saudi will remain. The rest will disappear. >> Which is a lot. This is probably around 10% of the world, 10-plus percent. >> But right now, oil can still go out this way, 4-5 million per day. >> And it can still go to the Red Sea. >> It still alleviates. Secondly, some ships in the Hormuz zone are allowed to pass. That's why oil prices don't spike to 150. >> Uh-huh. >> But if you cut this off, you might see 130, 150. You will see it. >> Uh-huh. Because another 4-5 million will disappear. >> Yes. And think about it, if it's an oil pipeline, when it's hit. >> Uh-huh. >> It's permanent. It takes time to repair. >> Uh-huh. >> It's a big deal. >> Oh, it will be stuck, P'Moo. If they really attack. >> Oil prices will be stuck at 120-130. >> Yes. So, both oil and gas will have risks, but of different kinds. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? Different kinds, but both are risky. Because this is infrastructure. >> Uh-huh. >> That is all interconnected. >> It is. >> Is it possible that it will drag on and on, as you said? >> It's not dragging on. I think dragging on is not as scary. Do you know why? If Israel is considerate and sends something to attack Iran, that's more frightening. If, for example, Israel attacks Susa again. Or if Israel attacks somewhere in Iran, like an oil refinery, what do you think Iran will do? >> Oh my. There's a chance it will happen like Aramco, P'Moo. If so, it will be the one in trouble. >> I'm telling you the truth. Aramco will seem like a trivial matter. Why? Because at that time, the US had enough LNG export capacity to sell to Europe. >> Yes. >> Therefore, you will see a transition. >> Europe's transition from Russia, which at that time relied on Russia by about 40-50%. >> And think about it, you're transitioning to the US. It was almost seamless in the market, except for the initial period of the invasion. >> Uh-huh. >> In 2022. But after that, in 2023, 2024, 2025, you will see it's smooth. >> Uh-huh. >> The market is normal. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> Yes. >> But this time it's different. Because this time, 1. The US LNG export capacity is not as much as before. It has increased, it's still available because it's expanding, but it's not as much as before. >> Uh-huh. >> Secondly, if you consider that Russia sold a large amount of gas to Europe at that time, it's not as much as the total oil and gas production and export from the Middle East. It's a lot. And importantly, you can't think of it as a percentage of global consumption. Why? Because, for example, if all Middle Eastern countries are exporters, exporting both oil and gas, because their own populations are small. >> And the percentage of exports. You can't compare it to the US, which uses 20 million, produces 16 million, imports 4 million, it's not the same. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? Or China. For oil, they produce 4-5 million. >> Per day. >> They use about. >> Uh, 17 million. They import over 10 million. >> Yes. >> Like this, you need to see how much is actually traded. >> Uh-huh. >> And if that amount, and the part that's missing, how many percent of what's traded, not how many percent of the total world consumption. >> Uh-huh. >> This is important. Because the world, most of it, 30-40% of the world, whether it's oil or gas, that is traded, meaning excess and export. >> It's concentrated there. >> Uh-huh. >> This is the scary part. >> Yes. Now, P'Moo, from the perspective of, uh, if inflation comes, interest rates rise again, and P'Moo says the energy price structure has really changed. This time, it has really changed. It won't go down, but it has changed, meaning it has increased. >> What will that affect the stocks we hold? What about the assets we hold? >> What should investors do? The picture is clear. >> It means inflation will be high for sure. Interest rates are likely to rise. >> It means stocks that have risen a lot, especially the US market, the Magnificent Seven, will be at risk. >> Uh-huh. >> And another risk, do you know what it is? It might be a withdrawal or reduction of investment. >> In AI from the GCC group. >> Uh-huh. >> Because the GCC group has a lot of money, right? They will invest in US bonds. They will invest in AI. >> Yes. >> A lot. >> Right? So they might reduce it. Because they are in trouble now. >> Yes. >> Because they are in trouble now. This will be a risk. >> Uh-huh. >> What about China? China, you asked me, is China in trouble? Do you think GCC money buys Chinese stocks? >> No, they buy US stocks. >> Yes. >> Magnificent Seven. >> And ask today, what is China in trouble with? Except, except if energy prices rise. But as I said, China uses only about 9% gas. >> Yes. >> Of its energy. But China imports about 10 million barrels of oil. About 5 million come from Russia. 5 million from Russia, and some from Iran, which Iran is still able to supply. >> Uh-huh. >> China is still able to supply. And about 30% from the Middle East. >> Yes. >> So, this 30% of China's oil, this is where China might be affected in terms of supply and price. China might be affected a bit. But I think China has the strength to withstand this much more than the US. Why? Because 1. China has a lot of renewables. They are increasing EVs. >> They use more coal than the US for electricity production, more than half. And they have more large hydro than the US, a lot more. >> So, all these things make China reduce its investment. Many people might think that the US produces a lot of oil, so it won't be in trouble. It will be in trouble in the sense of inflation, as I explained. But it might not reach the point of shortage. But on the Chinese side, don't forget, even though they import, more than half, almost half now, they import from Russia. >> Uh-huh. >> And from others, Indonesia, Malaysia, a lot. This is about China. So, if we cut off the Middle East, China might be affected by about one-third. But if they have ways to mitigate it, like asking Russia to send more, Malaysia to send more, Indonesia to send more, then the impact will gradually decrease. >> Uh-huh. >> And maybe you will see Chinese EVs grow even faster. >> Uh-huh. >> Because the more EVs grow, the more EVs use electricity, not oil. >> Right? So, I think this event might be another reason why Chinese EVs or global EVs will grow faster, including Thailand. >> Uh-huh. >> Because EV cars. >> Don't have to queue up to refuel, right? >> If you use an EV, you don't have to queue up to refuel. >> Yes. >> Right? >> It's just that electricity prices will be more expensive. When we charge. >> More expensive, but much cheaper than oil. >> Uh-huh. >> It will be more expensive because we import LNG, as we discussed. When LNG is high, we will also face higher electricity prices. But let's consider today's prices. It's unlikely to go back to the level of 2022. >> Uh-huh. >> Probably not yet. Because LNG in 2022 was over 30 dollars, right? Now it's over 20 dollars. >> It won't reach that, but it's direct. You will definitely face higher electricity prices. Stable electricity prices are probably not possible anymore. >> Yes. >> Next time they adjust, I believe it will increase. How much it will increase, we have to see. We have to see the government's decision. >> Oh, and if so, P'Moo, can they manage their own fuel? P'Moo said PTT imports, EGAT also imports. They are the ones importing LNG. >> For gas, you have to do what? First, as we discussed, the 5th largest in the world is Malaysia, right? You have to talk to your neighbors, our sweet neighborhood. >> Help us. >> Sell us some LNG. And actually, we also import gas through pipelines from Malaysia. >> Yes. >> That's another part. And Malaysia actually has oil and Indonesia. We call it Faris oil. Have you heard of it? Faris oil is good oil, light oil from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. These four countries, the Faris countries, are starting. So, what I heard from PTT this morning, they said they believe they can manage to have enough crude oil and gas supply. >> How? Crude oil, how? They are ordering more from West Africa. >> Yes. >> They used to buy, but not much before. Now they have increased a lot. From the US, partly. That's 2. And the third part. And the fourth part is from yesterday's news, they might buy some from Russia. >> Uh-huh. >> I don't know if they will buy from Iran too, because America lifted sanctions. I don't know if they will buy or not. But if we combine all of them, we can almost not buy, meaning we can import only a little, 10-20%. We can survive. >> But the cost will be higher. I must say that first. >> But not. >> Gas, gas, we produce 60% ourselves, import 40%. Of the 40%, about 20-plus percent is LNG. >> Uh-huh. >> There are contracts in place. So, if we need to find more. >> We have to find it from the US, Australia, which we are already buying from. From Malaysia. These 3-4 countries. >> Uh. >> As far as PTT has said, they said. >> Uh. >> They should be able to find it. But how much the cost will increase, that's a later price. For now, let's have it first. Ah, ah. >> So, Thai people might be, uh, I don't know if they will be reassured or warm-hearted, but at least they don't have to be too anxious. There's still some. There's still some because the government, PTT group, and Thai refineries, and even those outside the PTT group. >> They are. >> Struggling, I use that word. >> To try to find. >> National Security. >> Uh-huh. Yes, we see the picture quite clearly. Because today, I specifically invited P'Moo because, as I mentioned earlier, attacks on top gas production facilities in the world have occurred, and P'Moo said prices will definitely adjust upwards and won't come down easily. But to the point of shortage? P'Moo said maybe not yet, but if there are more attacks than seen, then there will definitely be a shortage. If they attack and destroy, there will definitely be a shortage. And one thing we need to keep an eye on, we're not sure either, because in terms of financial results, if costs increase, interest rates tend to increase, oil prices increase, will it eat into the profits of listed companies? Each investor needs to follow up and analyze the stocks they hold to see how much impact they have. But today, thank you very much, P'Moo, for joining us to discuss energy prices. Thank you, P'Moo. Goodbye. >> Yes, goodbye. >> Goodbye, P'Moo. Hello. Hello. >> To not miss any investment information and news, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to all Money Chat channels.