Transcription
We have a major signal that has formed on USDT dominance that we absolutely must reverse. I will talk to you about it today. We will discuss why USDT dominance is important to analyze. We will make a correlation point with Bitcoin. You will see, it's super interesting.
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So to come here on USDT dominance, well first of all, what is it? Well, it's the dominance of Tether within the market. The higher the dominance and the more it rises, the more it generally indicates that the crypto market capitalization is decreasing, meaning that the price of crypto assets is decreasing. So altcoins, Bitcoin, Ethereum are going down. When USDT dominance falls, it's very bullish because it indicates that the market capitalization is increasing, and it's increasing more than stablecoin issuance. And so this generally indicates that money is coming in and that this money is flowing predominantly into the crypto market. And that's what allows it to pump.
So there are important indicators to observe. Stablecoin issuance. I have a homemade indicator here that shows me the issuance every day. We can see that it has been decreasing here since the crash. Fewer and fewer investors are interested in the market. It could come back, but for now it's a bit quiet. For example, we see that this week we printed 200 million stablecoins, whereas last week we were at 1 billion, and a few weeks ago we were at 5 billion per week. So there is much less liquidity coming in. This makes pumps difficult if there is less liquidity. So, we would need to see stablecoin issuance increase again.
And so here, regarding USDT dominance, the big signal, we were talking about it, we shouldn't have seen it and it formed, it's the double bottom structure here which indicates that potentially we have a reversal on USDT dominance and that it could go north again. And if it goes north again, it means that unfortunately the crypto market is simply falling. The total market cap would be perhaps on the verge of falling. And on the Total Market Cap, I repeat again, we must not see the formation of this breaker block. We must not close below this low, which corresponds to approximately $107,000 for Bitcoin. It was saved by the skin of its teeth. But if, since this liquidity grab, we were to close below this order block, we would have the formation of a breaker block which could mark the inversion of the total market cap. And so again, what often happens is that we fill the previous fair value gaps we left on the rise. For example, here I'll quickly show you on a monthly chart. We left our monthly fair value gap zone right here. We filled it. We made a new high, but we did exactly the same thing here. We filled our fair value gap. We made a new high. And so here we will have to switch to a weekly chart to identify the fair value gaps to fill. We had this fair value zone that was already filled during the crash. If we validate this breaker block, the next zone to fill would be here around 2.8 trillion to 2.68 trillion. So that would mean a new market downturn. Let's hope that's not the case.
And on the USD dominance side, the signal that needs to be invalidated is simply to re-enter this structure we had here so that we re-enter the structure and USDT dominance can fall. Which could indicate that the total market cap is increasing and therefore simply that the market is increasing again, because the structure we are witnessing indicates a bottom on USDT dominance which could potentially go higher. And I remind you that when USD dominance increases, it means the market is falling. We can draw a small trendline here which can be a target if ever, but above all we can draw a trendline that connects approximately all the current points. And we can see that the market is struggling to break this trendline.
Here, I'll zoom in a bit like this. And we can see that for now, it's this trendline that's blocking it. We were rejected here for the first time in September 2023, a second time in April 2025, and a third time during the crash here in October 2025. So if we re-enter, it's positive for the market because it could finally indicate that we could break the long-term support trendline for USDT dominance, and that would be positive for the crypto market.
I'll show you a little correlation we have here with BTC and I'll invert the chart, but this is our long-term trendline from the previous two cycles. For those who didn't understand, I inverted the Bitcoin chart. This means that when it goes down, well, in reality Bitcoin goes up, and when it goes up, Bitcoin goes down because I inverted the chart. And so we see that we have our long-term trendline that we are following here. And if I put the chart back the right way up, it looks like this. So that would be the trendline here that we could break. If USDT dominance breaks the trendline I showed you, on our side with Bitcoin, it would allow us to break the bullish trendline. So you see that everything is a bit correlated, and that's why the signal we have on USDT dominance, well, it's much clearer than what we have on BTC.
Here, we can see that the previous time we unfortunately had our double bottom like here, we had a crypto market downturn from February to April 2025 with the Trump tariffs. The question is, is this dump already over and will we be rejected by this trendline and go back down, or on the contrary, will this signal be maintained and will we go higher? And so that's what Bitcoin will decide. And I really repeat for investors, the super important signal is the weekly order block. We were lucky, we didn't close below the order block. So for now, it's just a simple liquidity grab. What we are observing is whether the market will be rejected by this weekly high. If so, and we come back to test the order block, we really don't want it to become a breaker block because if it becomes a breaker block, unfortunately, it's a fairly strong reversal pattern that could lead us into a bearish swing with key targets like $98,000, but especially potentially the fair value gaps we left behind.
So you see, this one was filled. We filled up to the last FVG. Currently, we have an FVG that is open here. So, this could be between $92,000 and $87,000. Again, these would be very interesting prices to position ourselves on Bitcoin. I remind you that currently, well, I don't have the indicator here, I'll put it here, but I remind you that currently the production cost of a Bitcoin is around, well, you can mine for cheaper again. I'm not saying the opposite. However, why isn't it working here? Maybe we need to change the token, maybe on a weekly scale. H no, there's a small bug with this indicator. Too bad because it usually works very well. I don't know why it's bugging here. Maybe here. No, I see that Trading View has a small problem. But currently the production cost, well, that's no longer relevant because the production cost now is already too high and even a bit higher. So it's a bit of a shame that it's not working here. Yet, it usually works very well. But the production cost, we know that in 2028, it will probably be above $150,000. So, investing in Bitcoin, even before $150,000 before 2028, well, it's almost ensuring a capital gain because we know that the production cost will be around $150,000. So we know that in 2028, at the next halving, Bitcoin will be at a minimum of $150,000.
How can we know this? We need to observe the Bitcoin hash rate. The more the Bitcoin hash rate increases, the more the difficulty will increase, and that's positive. So when we look at the long term, the hash rate continues to increase. So that's positive. This means that the production cost continues to increase. This is the intrinsic value of a Bitcoin, and it's especially the network difficulty. The more the difficulty increases, the more expensive it is to mine a Bitcoin, and the more its intrinsic value increases. When the European Central Bank says that Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, it hasn't understood that its intrinsic value is its production cost. If tomorrow the production cost of a Bitcoin is $200,000, Bitcoin is likely to be above $200,000, and we already know that in 2028 this production cost will be above $150,000. This means that someone who invested in Bitcoin today at $113,000, even if it's not necessarily the best price, as it was much cheaper a while ago and even cheaper, what does that mean in the end? Theoretically, we know that by 2028, we will already be above $150,000. So for me, in fact, the more BTC falls, if imagine the breaker forms and then we go to test the FVG, if there's perhaps a possibility to grab Bitcoin at $90,000 and know that it will be at least $150,000 by 2028, or even a bit higher. So, that would already be a rather interesting capital gain. Well, some are looking for big multiples on altcoins, but well, for investors who want to deploy part of their capital, it can be interesting.
But in any case, the key technical signal is really the last weekly order block, and then obviously on the USDT dominance side, to see that there is indeed this double bottom that has formed, which needs attention and ideally to be re-entered to continue to have a fall in USDT dominance, which would be bullish for the market.
I wanted to quickly show you the inverted Bitcoin chart again here and show you that it might help you read the price. That is to say, when we look here on a daily chart, we can see that simply we had the liquidity grab that marked a bullish movement. We can see that the price came back to test the stops below this low right here, within the fair value gap, and that if, which is why I talk about this in the reviews, if we break this fair value gap, our signal is rather bullish. So ultimately it will be a bearish signal because I inverted the chart. OK? But if we manage to be rejected by this fair value gap and break this FVG, what awaits us? A new low? So sometimes when you have trouble reading the price, don't hesitate to invert the chart. Perhaps you have a bias that prevents you from reading the price correctly, and perhaps like this, it jumps out at you more. And then we can do this for any crypto. So, at a pinch, we can take XRP for example. Here again, I inverted the chart and here again when I switch to a weekly scale, we can see that we have recovered the stops and since then, well, there are double bottoms within double bottoms. So which for now is rather bullish, a signal that would be bearish here on XRP and therefore which would be bullish for it. You have to understand that I inverted the chart, so it's a bit complicated, but if we were to break this FVG, it could start to be positive to go back down. And so if I invert the chart and put it in the right direction, we see that if we break this FVG, it would be a positive signal to, for example, recover the stops above our high.
So, I've been talking about this for years on my channel, but it's a tip that can help you when sometimes you have a bias that is psychological and not technical, to tell yourself, "Okay, when I invert my chart, I actually see things differently, and perhaps I'm psychologically biased." It can sometimes help you. So, that was the little tip of the day. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box for those who want to train for free, have access to the algos. Here, I remind you that all of this is free. Don't hesitate. See you very soon. Have a good day.