Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are feeling great. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Monday, November 3, 2025. Now, you're going to tell me "Fouffi, stop saying we're feeling great, we're not feeling great at all," but hey, I say it a bit to give you some energy, you see. Otherwise, I wouldn't say it, I'd say "Hi, how are you?" And then, well, we'll go straight to the analysis. Well, I don't know where I'm positioning myself either with such a red market. Today, well, it's not pretty. It's really not pretty. Clearly, Bitcoin is down around -4%, altcoins are rather around -8% or more. It's not a very, very nice day. You see it a bit on all social networks. Look at Binance selling through the market maker. Yes, BlackRock also sent to sell. After, it's not BlackRock directly selling, it's the clients, well, who are selling shares of the BlackRock ETF, and BlackRock behind, well, they sell, they sell, it's automatic, there's no choice. Well, the not-so-nice ones, it would rather be Binance that goes through the market maker Wintermute. They don't sell because clients sell, they sell to go hunting for longs a bit. You see what I mean? Whereas BlackRock, they sell because BlackRock clients sell. That's the big difference between the two. One goes hunting its own clients, and the other sells because clients have no choice. Well, so not very pretty today. Now, well, November ended, well, October ended with a -3%. November is around -3%. For Bitcoin, it's still okay. For altcoins, it stings. So, the market is in fear. Now, I think tomorrow it will be even more in fear. Will it want to go into extreme fear to look for very red, very ugly zones where it will find a good bottom? That remains to be seen. However, it risks stinging towards $100,000, perhaps below. Well, for altcoins, remember, the 200-day moving average was well preserved even after that kind of nuclear crash we had on Friday the 10th, the next day it was preserved, still preserved. Then it was the same on Friday and Saturday, October 18th, the 200-day moving average, which is the average price, I remind you, of altcoins over the last 200 days, well, all of that held, held, held, held, and it's no longer holding. So we understand well that when it's no longer holding, it stinks. Well, what stinks? Well, we are currently breaking the lower Bollinger Band. So, is it off for a nuclear descent to reach the bottom of the wick? We remember that the bottoms of wicks are very often retested. It's not a sure thing, but it happens often. So, well, we shouldn't be surprised if we have the descent that we don't like too much, it's that the Bollinger Bands are very compressed because volatility has been crushed for about 2 weeks, and now we are breaking the lower Bollinger Band. So we can have the widening of the Bollinger Bands downwards and the sliding of the candles on them. Unfortunately, knowing that the bulls regained momentum today, you see a bullish crossover on the MACD. At the structural level, which is the most important, the structure tells us several things. The first, well, besides the structure, we are entering the long re-accumulation zone. This is the zone where the bulls buy. They bought well on the big nuclear wick of October 10th. They also bought back when we dipped a toe into the long re-accumulation zone, that was on Friday, October 17th. And now, we're dipping a toe again, it's being bought a bit. Well, we see that the structure, remember, we have two scenarios. Well, I'm telling you the same thing. Basically, I've told you all last week, the first scenario is the scenario, it's a direct descent. A here, B here, and boom, C. So that means that the big C has started, and it's going to fall, fall, and we're going to go below the wick of October 10th. It's not a nuclear winter, it can be fast, but it's a bear market. A fast bear market, it will be, right? Like the bear market, I say that because, well, cryptos have still dropped about -36% on average. Well, it's not a bear market. Well, but you've understood the idea. Well, an ugly drop. So it's the big C starting from this structure. And so we're going to go below the bottom of the wick. To validate the structure, we unfortunately need to go below the bottom of that wick. That means a correction of at least -16%. Well, that's scenario 1, or it's the C of the descent that starts directly. Scenario number 2 is that it might not be the C of the descent right away. That means that here, we can validate a small regular flat. Small A, small B, a small C. The long re-accumulation zone will be very supported by buyers. We get a good little bullish C, well, a good little bullish wave, and then we finish the big A, the big B, and then the big C which will hurt less, okay? Because it will go lower. That's scenario number 2. For now, this scenario number 2 is still valid. Here, we still have a potential regular flat. If you want, a zigzag zigzag zigzag zigzag that has a higher probability of breaking upwards, you know the drill, it's the same impulse, correction equals continuation, okay? So this scenario number 2 is there. After, some people with today's red candles will tell me, "Nonsense, it's crashing, we're all going to lose, it's over." Well, everyone has the right to think what they want. I'm just telling you that from a purely structural point of view, to remove emotions, you have to be like a robot in crypto, especially here. First scenario: impulse, correction, continuation, or if you prefer, this is a regular flat that has a high probability of breaking upwards, and then there's the C of the descent. I'm telling you the same thing as every day. Well, and the second scenario is a direct descent. That's it. The problem is that altcoins won't help us here. Since we're on a regular flat, altcoins don't help us much because, basically, well, the regular, you see, it has to break the lows, and it has done what it needed to do. So the regular is still valid. To say the regular is finished, well, we'd have to fall, fall, fall, you see. So it doesn't help much. The one that will help is our dear little Bitcoin, which went to look for its lower Bollinger Band today, which is around $105,400. For now, there's nothing dramatic. If tomorrow dear little Bitcoin makes a red candle, breaks its lower Bollinger Band, goes to $105,000. Then it won't smell good because the Bollinger Bands are very compressed because Bitcoin has been doing nothing for about 3 weeks, well, if the lower band is broken, there will be, as usual, the widening, the downward sliding effect, and direction, why not, the gap at $91,970. Okay, for now, there's none of that. So as long as the lower Bollinger Band isn't broken, well, we won't, we won't take out the handkerchiefs yet. Okay, the bulls have regained momentum today. Structurally, as usual, I'll repeat what I told you last week, but it doesn't hurt. So here, potential running flat, meaning small A, small B that broke the high of A, and so this is wave C. Okay? Now, it's simple. So scenario number 1, it's like before, it's the direct big C of the descent, meaning wave A here, wave B, boom, wave C, and here it's the descent, and later, it will start again. Well, and so that means Bitcoin will fall, it will go below $103,000, bam bam, it can go to $98,000, it can go to $92,000, not fall. Well, it won't go to $70,000 because it remains a channel like that. Well, so that's the first scenario where the descent is underway. Second scenario is that ultimately it will validate the running flat first before crashing. And so it's this, it's small A, small B, small C, and boom, upward explosion, and then we do small A, small B, and boom, the big C. Okay. Is this scenario 2 of validating the running flat and breaking upwards valid? We'll see what the futures tell us. Futures, I don't know too much. Well, yes, of course. There is enormous liquidity to the north. $10 billion, if Bitcoin goes up towards $119,000. To the south, there's not much left. So when you look at the futures, do you feel more inclined to say that there's a higher probability for a running flat where it will make an upward leg to reach the $10 billion and then turn around for the C of the descent, or do you think it will directly fall, fall, fall to make the C of the descent? Well, when we look at the futures, we say, well, there's a higher probability of making the running flat. So first an upward leg and then the reversal. Now, if dear Bitcoin falls, falls, falls, direction $99,000 or even lower, well, there's not much there. That would mean that to the north, much, much more liquidity will accumulate, and that would mean, well, that it's finishing the big structure with this A, this B, this C to then hunt everyone. Because we don't forget that all of this is a regular flat. And a regular flat, the finality is an explosion upwards. It's a correction, a corrective channel, it breaks upwards. There you go. So you'll tell me in the comments, are you team scenario 1 with the direct descent? You see, to finish the regular, at least it's over, you see, the regular can go below $100,000. It can even go to $91,970. Well, or are you team scenario 2, team 2, you see, with first we validate the running flat to go eat that, and then boom, we do the C of the descent. You'll tell me what you think. I'll tell you, structurally speaking, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break this, the running flat is still valid. If Bitcoin goes poof poof, breaks here, direction scenario 1, the big C. So the referee will simply be the bottom of this wick at approximately $103,696. Breaking that, it's off to the descent. Let's go now. Ethereum. Well, red candle, not very, very pretty. Uh, here it's breaking its lower Bollinger Band. So yes, it doesn't smell good, clearly, because the lower Bollinger Band can easily widen. Ethereum, bam bam, hello to its 200-day moving average at $3,362, and even hello to the CME gap at $2,853. Well, if tomorrow there's a red candle, it won't smell good because the lower Bollinger Band will really widen. Bullish crossover on the MACD. The bulls are here, they're saying hello. Well, now Ethereum, it's the scenario. It's a regular flat because here, it broke this level. It didn't break the high. So what is it? It's potentially, well, here a small A, a small B for boom, a small C to have this, and boom, explosion. Or basically, if you want, it's impulse, correction, and boom, continuation, as usual, the same tune. So Ethereum, as long as it doesn't break here, well, you'll tell me, well, go on, as long as it doesn't break this low at $3,463, it can still validate this small bearish channel, this small regular flat, boom, to make an upward leg to finally do small a, small b, and the C of the descent afterwards. So same as Bitcoin, everyone, same structure. First scenario, it's direct, it's the C of the descent, small A, small B, boom, and here it's directly, I think it can go to the gap at $2,853. That will be a regular flat that will have as its finality an upward explosion, because once the C of the descent is finished, phew, it will start again, but there will be fewer people who will start again because many will have already left. Well, that's number 1. That's number 2. Well, validation of the regular flat first, an upward move, and then the descent. Now, what do the futures tell us? I don't know too much. Well, yes, we know, given the amount of liquidity to the north, we see that it's packed to the north. After, that doesn't mean that yes, it's certain, it will validate the regular flat here, make the explosion, and then fall for the big nuclear descent. It's not obligated. If it decides to validate directly, well, scenario 1, meaning, well, this one, small A, small boom, small C to reach, well, below $3,000, I think that's clear. Well, it will just try to nibble at almost nothing, there's nothing to eat. It will be disappointed, there will be nothing to eat down there, and then, well, later, when it finishes, it will validate this big regular flat, this upward wave of validation will be an impulsive wave that will short squeeze all of that. So, for me, the question I ask myself for everyone is, will this little short squeeze, meaning eating up everything to the north, happen on the validation of this regular flat? So it might be tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, or will it be rather the validation of the big regular flat after the C of the descent, this wave that will reach all of that? Well, to know, it's simple, if Ethereum breaks the low of its wick at $3,463, well, it's the regular flat of the descent first. There you go, it's the big C, and it will keep that. Well, later. Solana, same thing, even uglier. Well, Solana smells more like the big descent. Well, so, does it give us a little clue? No, no, we'll do the descent first before validating everything else. Why? Because Solana, well, with today's candle, it's breaking its descent, which has been well held many times. Well, so here you feel that it doesn't smell good at $179, plus the lower Bollinger Band. So if tomorrow there's a red candle, it's a descent to hell. Widening of the Bollinger Bands. Bam bam bam bam, direction the gap at $121. The bulls are there, they said hello. Crossover on the MACD. There you go. Now, structurally, well, it's exactly the same, but I'll do it again, okay, there's no problem. So it's the first wave A, wave B, and boom, wave C. Is it doing that? It remains very possible, because here, breaking the Bollinger Band. So Solana has a high probability that this is the nuclear C that has started, and so it's going towards $121. I'm not saying it will go to $121, but it can go there if it wants to, to reach the gap, but it can stop before. For example, there's a wick here that hasn't been retested. It's this wick here from August 2nd. And on August 2nd, you see, at $156, we didn't go for a little visit. And here there are many stop losses below, I think, you see. So the structure that says hello, small A, small B, small C below $156, and then it starts again. It remains very possible. Not obligated to go to $121. Now, if we look at the futures, I think it's the same. There you go, futures, there's nothing. There's nothing to the south. Nothing. Well, to the north, there's still $1.5 billion. So I'd say there are still two scenarios for Solana, like the others. The first scenario is to first validate the entire big structure of the descent like this. So Solana will fall, fall, fall below $156, I think. And then it will be the big bullish wave that will eat all of that. So scenario 1 is direct descent. Scenario 2, like the others. Validation of this regular flat first, small A, small B, small C, boom, an upward move, and then bam, we do this. But well, here, it would be a bit strange because the problem is that it broke this level. So here, it's not great, you see. It could be, it could be just the continuation of the structure with here a drop, a contraction, and boom, and it falls. That's very possible. So this is the ugliest. It's the one where scenario number 1 of the C of the descent is the most prominent in my eyes. You see, uh, in fact, it's just this, the scenario. It's first the impulse, a contracting flat as a B, and the C, the descent that falls like this. Ah, that's a bit the idea if you want for something like this, and then it pushes. So this is the least pretty. It's the least pretty, and XRP is like Bitcoin, if you want. Now, XRP is not breaking its lower Bollinger Band. So, well, it's not that atrocious. The bulls will soon return here, but they're not here yet. And it's in its running flat. It broke the high here. So here, you see, it's a running flat. So XRP, like Bitcoin, as long as it doesn't break here at $0.219, it can totally validate a running flat, an A, a B, a C, and boom, make an upward leg to eat everything to the north. And you see well that everyone is packed with liquidity to the north, right, now. Well, so scenario number 2, direct, it's this one. It's first validating the running flat, poof, we break upwards, and then it's the C of the descent, and scenario number 1, well, it's the C of the descent directly, you see, with the big A that did whatever, the B, and then boom, the C of the descent. Well, knowing that, well, to the south, there's not much, so will the big C really start now? It has the right to, but it would be a bit surprising because, well, go look on social media, type Binance Wintermute on Twitter, you'll see that Binance is sending good quantities of Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana to Wintermute, who is in charge of making the markets fall, you see. And well, if there's not much left to eat to the south, I'm not sure they'll want to dump the market even more. Well, you'll thank Binance and CZ, they are very kind. Alright, uh, at the stock market level now, it's not that ugly, you see, because if you take a quick look at the stock market here, you see that finally, well, it's green today. Nvidia, a nice little candle of 2.80%, good. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500 are in the green. Well, finally, it's only cryptos where we get a little party, Halloween style, if you want, all red. It's really only us who are in the red. If you look at the stock market, frankly, well, it's all green, clearly. Now you'll tell me, well, there's some red, but it's very, very light. The biggest indices are in the green, while for cryptos, all the big indices are in the red. BTC -3.56%, Ethereum -7.48%, BNB -8%, Solana -10%, AVAX almost -11%. Well, we're doing great here, you see. It's all ugly, you see. But the stock market is doing rather well. Now, this morning, it's funny, there was nothing displayed, or maybe I wasn't wearing my glasses because there were no numbers. Did they add the numbers during the day? I think so. I didn't check in this morning's video, but this morning I showed you the macro numbers, and I remember it was empty. There was nothing here, you see. And now, for this evening, I say, well, it's empty, I won't put it back. I say, wait, I'll check anyway. I say, what? 5 PM, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, that's the health of manufacturing companies. Then after that, on Wednesday, the ISM Services will come out, or what? After that, the University of Michigan surveys consumers to see if they are bullish or not. This morning in the video, I have the impression that it remained all empty, you see. Anyway, who cares. So today at 5 PM, René and Albert came out, who are sipping a good little cocktail of whatever you want, a good little cocktail with fries and a small burger in front of Netflix. Well, finally, they released numbers like they released inflation numbers. Robert scratched his behind a bit like this, he said, "It's good, 3% for inflation," and Jan Powell said, "Okay, thank you, that works for me, it's below expectations, that works for me." Well, so the little problem here is that we see that the health, with the number 48.7, which is below 50, meaning that factories, well, are contracting a bit more, are a bit more in recession, it smells less good, order books are a bit emptier, things are slowing down. Knowing that I remember that a week or two ago, in a morning news video, there was an article that I shared with you from several factory managers who said that it was tough because tariffs were exploding prices upwards. So for them, prices are rising, and that's reflected, and it wasn't very good. Well, so now we see with today's number that factories are not doing as well as before. They weren't doing very well already. It's been in recession for quite some time, and now we're a bit more in recession, in contraction, in decrease. Call it what you want. Well, the ISM Services is what will count the most. Okay? That's what will come out the day after tomorrow, Wednesday at 5 PM, because services represent 75% of GDP. We were at exactly 50% last month, not too much recession, not too much expansion, don't worry. Well, if we fall below 50, there will be big words coming out everywhere on social media, it's recession, recession, recession. Because the services sector falling below 50, yes, it's a strong recessionary element. After, some will say, like all analysts, some will say, "No, it's fine, it's passing." Some will say, "Oh my god, recession." There you go. Well, so you can tell that I'm not sure that Albert and René and Alfred on their couch, eating chips and watching Game of Thrones? Of course, nothing against Americans. I send kisses to all the Americans who are watching us, it's just for a bit of humor. Well, and so I'm not too sure that they will give a number above 50 because it might not be good, you see. Because the US government is closed. If you start giving not-so-good macro numbers, it won't be good. For example, inflation, okay, it came out at 0.1% higher than the previous month but below expectations. Expectations were 3.1%, so okay, pause, you see. So here I would say, if I have to stick my neck out, I'd say yes, 50, just to not cause a drama on the markets, to say, well, it doesn't smell great, but it's okay, or 50.1, you see, well, below expectations, you see, 50.1, 50.2. I'd say something like that. There you go. After, what's a shame is that we won't have the most important numbers. Among the most important numbers each month is, well, simply the employment numbers. Well, we won't have them, and don't forget that the Fed is lowering rates to support employment. The Fed has two mandates, two obligations. It's just to support employment. You can have a little unemployment, but not too much. Full employment is good, but well, full employment is also too inflationary. They don't want employment. Well, and then, patriotic inflation at 2% is good. There you go, they have two jobs to do for now. Neither of them is going well. Well, and so lowering rates is to support employment. The problem is that you no longer have employment data. So what do you want to support? You no longer have employment data. Well, investors are still happy. They're betting on a 70% chance of a rate cut for December. Well, why a rate cut again? I think, because today we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI that came out a bit lower. So, a rate cut could support factories a bit more. Lowering rates helps to get credit more easily. So for companies, it helps everyone, if you want. Well, the problem is this nasty inflation. You lower rates, okay, people are happy, credit is easier, but it fuels inflation. There you go. Well, so for now, okay, S&P 500, Nasdaq slightly here, but ultimately it's, it's, it's, it just opened higher, and now it's slowly correcting, you see, but for now, well, it's not dramatic at all, in fact, it's green, it's false red, why? Because it will close on Friday, and here we are, so we are on green. That's why when you look at the performance since the opening, the Nasdaq here, the S&P 500, S&P 500 +0.12%. So here, the difference between here and here is +0.12%. So it's a false red. It's red because it opened higher, and some people were buyers, but after that, since the opening, it's falling, falling, falling. So, so it's false red, a little green. There you go, it's a little green, Nasdaq too, a little green. The Dow Jones, however, it's more like a real red. Uh, the Euro Stoxx 600 is also being sold off quite a bit since the opening candle. Well, and European tech is doing okay. Japan is exploding. After all, the Japanese economy is a bit separate. Regarding gold. Well, for now, it's stagnating a bit. Nothing special. Natural gas is exploding upwards. Well, with all the conflicts, it's normal. Wheat too. Hello Russia, Ukraine. Well, regarding crypto stocks, Coinbase, a bit of red, MicroStrategy still in descent mode. For now, it's not picking up bullishness too much. That's why it's disappointing on its purchases. Well, he can't do anything, the poor guy, but we've been so used to purchases of several thousand Bitcoins every week, sometimes purchases of 10,000 Bitcoins, you're like, "Wow, wow, wow." Well, but the problem is that now he's making purchases of 47 Bitcoins, 152, 38, and you're like, "Yeah, well." Well, miners, a small red candle today. After, it's not a big deal, miners are still doing quite well, between us, yes, they've corrected, but they are very supported because miners are also doing a lot of AI, and right now with Nvidia, they're flooding the markets with contracts worth billions and billions left and right, and the miners are in on it. So Nvidia will see Amazon, they'll say a small contract for for doing AI, yes, yes, and both explode, Amazon. Nvidia, as soon as it finds someone, it will say a small contract of $100 billion for AI, yes, yes, and both push upwards. So with the miners, it's also working out quite well like that. They are right to do a bit of AI. The US 10-year bond is being sold off a bit today, but nothing crazy. It's like the probability of, well, of interest rates, let's say the probability of a rate cut has slightly increased, but we're not sure of a rate cut for December. So they're rushing a bit less onto bonds here, on the 10-year and on the 20-year, 30-year. It's the same. And the dollar is regaining some strength. It goes well with the fact that bonds are being sold off a bit because, given that for the end of the year, Powell tells us, ah, rate cut at the end of the year, ah, it's going to be complicated, you see. Well, the dollar is regaining some strength. The dollar has been regaining strength since when? Wednesday the 29th. Oh, that's weird. What happened on Wednesday? Well, it's Powell who said, ah, rate cut for December. Ah, crazy, crazy, crazy. No, maybe not. Yeah. And since then, poof, the dollar is rising, and cryptos, poof, and in the red. There you go. Well, I should have said that from the beginning, you see. Today, the dollar and my cryptos are in the red. See you tomorrow. Well, there you go, this little update, friends. Not very, very pretty. For now, it's not dramatic. Basically, starting to break $103,000 here, our dear Bitcoin. Then we'll have to get out the handkerchiefs to wipe our foreheads, our noses, and our bottoms too if someone soils us, because that means it's really, it's not pretty, clearly, if we break that. But as long as we don't break $103,000, we still have hope for this little running flat that can break upwards to go eat that. So I'm waiting, I'm clearly waiting for the break of $103,000, handkerchiefs, and if it starts to go, well, you'll know it's because the descent is validating, and I have all of this. Well, so in the benefit of the doubt, we'll stay positive. If $103,000 is broken, well, we'll be more positive. I send kisses and see you tomorrow. Bye bye.