Transcription
Everybody in fantasy football is telling you the same thing right now. Get your running backs early. Take two in the first three rounds. Don't get left behind. Running backs are back, baby. And I'm telling you, that's exactly how you're going to lose your league this year.
Now, I'm not a zero running back guy and not here to tell you that all running backs are bad. The opposite, actually. Running backs just had the two best, healthiest, most reliable seasons we've seen in the last half decade. That part is true. I pulled up five years of data and it's right there. The problem isn't the running backs. The problem is what you have to pay for them right now. Because the entire market just watched those two great years and did the dumbest thing the fantasy market always does. It assumed the last two years are going to be every year. That's recency bias. And this year, recency bias is wearing the running back jersey.
So, let me show you the data, walk you through exactly why the price has gotten completely out of hand, and then most importantly, show you exactly what to do about it.
Now, let me steal man the other side first because I'm not going to sit here and pretend the running back hype came out of nowhere. It didn't. It came from two incredibly great seasons. One, start with health. From 2021 through 2023, your top 12 running backs averaged right around 14 games played. Um 14.2 basically, that's the historical baseline. The top 12 guys drafted at the position, on average, they miss about say three games. Now, of course, it's not like every one of them's going to miss three games. It's you're going to have a pretty high percentage of them missing large chunks of the season. But look at the past two years. In 2024, that number was 15.2 games. In 2025, that number was 15.4. The top running backs in the league basically stopped getting hurt. That's a full extra game of availability per back compared to the years before. And at the top of your draft, an extra game or two from your stud is a massive deal.
Now, the part that really lit the fire, the hit rate. How often did a top 12 drafted running back actually finish as a top 10 back? From 2021 to 2023, that number lived around 36%. Roughly one out of three running backs that were drafted inside your top 12 RBs would end up being a top 10 name. In 2024, that number jumped up to 58%. In 2025, that number jumped to 67%. The hit rate nearly doubled. Two out of three early running backs paid off last year. So, if you drafted running backs early in 2024 and 2025, you're probably popping champagne in December. I mean, I get it. In the Flock League, S took McAffrey and Jonathan Taylor to start the draft. His vibes, they were immaculate. I've been waiting for 10 years to have Saquon Barkley on my team since I saw him in college. But it's not happening this year. Give me Christian McCaffrey.
>> But here's the trap, and it's the oldest trap in fantasy football. The market saw those two years, too. And the market isn't going to let you buy that production at the same price ever again. This is the whole video right here, so stay with me.
In 2024, your top 24 running backs coming off the board were at an average pick of 45. Pick 45. That's the middle of the fourth round territory in a 12 team league. Now, this year in 2026, that same group, the top 24 running backs are going at an average pick of 25. That is nearly 20 picks earlier, almost two full rounds. That exact same tier of players. And now you have to spend two rounds of premium to draft the same position. And it's not just the deep guys. Your top 12 running backs went from an average draft slot of pick 20 in 2024 to pick 11 this year. That elite tier just got pulled up by almost an entire round.
Now, here's the part nobody's pointing at. While running backs got more expensive, receivers got cheaper. Your top 24 receivers were going around pick 18 and a half in 2024. Now they've slid all the way down to pick 27. The market flipped. Money flooded out of the wide receiver room and into the back field. So think about what actually happened in 2024. Running backs were a screaming value. You got elite production at a discount and they hit great. But you weren't smart because you liked running backs. You were smart because they were underpriced. That was the entire edge. It was never about the position. It was about the price. And now that edge is gone. Completely gone. You are now paying full retail, premium retail for that same exact product. Same players, way worse value. When everybody figures out the inefficiency, it stops being an inefficiency. That's not a hot take. That's just how the market works.
So follow the cycle because it's the whole point. 2023, running backs bust, market sour, prices crater. 2024, they're cheap, they hit, the sharp money cleans up. 2025, they hit again. Now they're healthier than ever. and the narrative completely flips to draft running backs early. And here we are in 2026 where running backs are the most expensive we've really ever seen them. And you're being told to buy at the top of the cycle right after two perfect seasons. That's not a strategy. That's just chasing last year's perfect numbers.
Now, you may ask, "Okay, Flock, but what if running backs are just healthier now? What if it's a real shift?" Fair question. Let me show you why I don't buy it. And the data does the talking here. In 2025, your top 12 running backs played 15.4 games. Your top 12 wide receivers played 14.3. Read that again. The running backs were more available than the wide receivers. You can just remember Malik Neighbors obviously down for the year. And not only that, but you had additional bust inside those top 12 names. And that has basically never been true. Wide receivers the lower contact in lower injury position. Historically, receivers outplay running backs in games every year. In 2025, that flipped. And when you see a physically punishing position suddenly become the most durable position in fantasy football for one season, that's not a new normal. That's a textbook definition of a number that's about to regress. The thing that made running back special last year is the single most likely thing to break.
And here's the kicker that ruins the narrative. Even in 2025, the healthiest, highest hit rate running backs that we have on record, the bus rate of your top 12 running backs was still 33%. One and three in the best season ever. Now, hold that up against the receivers. The same season, your top 12 receivers busted at 25% lower than running backs managed in the running back's best season ever. And rewind to 2023. The top 12 wide receiver bust rate was 8%. Eight, the position the entire industry is telling you to fade has quietly been the safer bet the whole time.
So, I've spent 12 minutes telling you what's wrong, and let me give you the part that you actually clicked for, what to do about it. And of course, I will say I am taking all the data from this. And I am making my 2026 fantasy football rankings with this in mind, all of our 2026 fantasy football draft sheets with all the historical numbers in mind. And those draft sheets are going to be able to be applied to your ESPN, your Sleeper, your Yahoo leagues. They'll be tailored exactly to the league format and platform that you are drafting on. And you'll have draft assistants to help you in real time all on flockfantasy.com. Not only are you getting all of that from myself, but from all your favorite creators that you watch on YouTube. You can find the link to flockfantasy.com in the description and the comment section. The 2026 season pass is only $34 right now. And if you use code flock, I'm also going to be the one answering your questions during the season in live streams.
But the number one thing is I'm not telling you to fade running backs. I'm telling you to stop overpaying for them. There's a difference. If an elite back falls to you at a fair value, take them. What I will not do this year is reach up around to grab a second or third running back just because the room is panicking. Let the table pay the recency tax. You don't have to.
Number two, follow the money in the other direction. While everybody's been bidding up running backs, your wide receivers just got cheaper. Top 24 wide receivers slid from pick 18 on average to pick 27 over the past two years. That's the same kind of discount we had with running backs in 2024. The discount that made them the winning play, the value didn't disappear. It just walked across to the wide receiver room. And here's the thing nobody wants to say out loud because the last two years turned running backs into this shiny object. Zoom out to the last five years. The receivers have just been the better pick at every tier on every metric that matters. Start with availability. Over the past five seasons, your top 24 drafted wide receivers average 14.4 games a year. Your top 12 running backs 14 flat. Go all the way down to the top 36 drafted receivers and top 36 drafted running backs. You have 14.3 games for the receivers versus 13.9 for the running backs. Receivers just play more games, get injured less.
Now, reliability, and this is where it gets ugly, at the top 24 level over the past 5 years, receivers busted 28% of the time. Running backs were at 34%. And the receivers didn't just bust less, they hit the top end ceiling more. Top 24 drafted receivers finished inside the top 10 of their position 34% of the time versus running backs were at 29%. So at the same draft here, the receiver room hands you fewer bust and gives you more league winners. And at the very top, it's the same story. Top 12 wide receivers busted 22% of the time. Top 12 drafted running backs busted 28% of the time. And get this, those 5-year numbers already include the two greatest running back seasons on record. Even after 2024 and 2025 drag the running back averages up, receivers are still ahead across the board. So, think about what each side is actually asking you to believe. The running back case asks you to bet that the last two years are the new forever. The receiver case is just the whole fiveyear sample. I know which side of that bet I want to be on, and right now it's the cheaper one, too.
Number three, let the cycle work for you instead of against you. The sharp move was never always draft backs or never draft running backs. It's buy the position the market is scared of. Sell the position that the market is in love with. Right now, the market is terrified of nothing at running back and forgetting that receivers exist. So, that's your edge. So, this draft season, let your league reach for that third or fourth running back in the first five rounds. You sit back, take the elite running back at the values there, then hammer the receiver discount everyone else is ignoring. When half of those early running backs do what running backs always do, and a third of them will, you're the one holding the stable, cheaper, leaguewinning receiver core.
All right, now that's enough theory. Let me put actual names on the board because I know what you're really here for. Who I'm taking and who I'm letting somebody else take. Let's start at the very top because I want to be crystal clear. I am not anti- elite running back. If I have the 101 or the 102, I am thrilled to take Jamir Gibbs or Bejian Robinson and not have to stress a single day in my life. Here's why those two are different from everything I just spent 15 minutes warning you about. Gibbs finishes the running back two in 2024 and the running back three in 2025. Bejon finishes the RB3 and the RB2 in 2025. Back-to-back top three seasons for both of them. They play every single game. They're in the prime of their career. Three down bellcows glued to the passing game as well. That is the rare running back whose floor actually justifies a massive premium price. These aren't recency bias picks. They're the two best backs in football and they've proven it for the past two years. They are the most valuable assets in fantasy.
But beyond that, I really only want to be taking one or two of these top level backs. And then once we get to rounds three, four, five, I want to be grabbing the discounts. I want to be taking a wide receiver like Nico Collins in round three. Once we get to round four, I want to be going through and drafting T. Higgins. Once we get to round five, I want to look at a name like Devonte Adams. And if I can start my draft off, say with Bejon Robinson, Brock Bowers, T. Higgins, Devonte Adams, and Nico Collins. Hell, I'm fine being light on running back two or running back three. I'll go through and I'll try to identify the running back values that I like at the very end of drafts just in case we do start to have injured running backs again. And we know we are going to have those waiverwire names that all of a sudden are exciting. So, I would classify some as like the trap running backs right now would be like Bree Hall going at the end of the second round. Travis Tien, they're going at the end of the second round, the beginning of the third rounds. And if we end up seeing guys like Javvante Williams creep up to the middle of round three, the wide receivers are just going to be better picks there instead.
So, here's the bottom line. Running backs aren't going to destroy your fantasy team because they're bad. They were great. They're going to destroy your team because there were two great years and the whole market noticed. And now you're being asked to pay a premium for a position that gets healthy in lottery cycles and bust a third of the time, even at the absolute best. Meanwhile, the receivers, the position that's been quietly more available, more reliable, and less busprone for five straight years, just went on sale. Don't pay for last year's hit rate. Don't pay for 2025's health. Pay for what the player is actually worth, and let the recency biased crowd subsidize your title.
If you want my full updated rankings, the tiers, the draft sheets, the realtime draft assistance to flag exactly what running backs are worth the pick and which ones aren't. It's all on flockfantasy.com, links in the description. Code flock is going to get me to answer your questions for free in the live streams this year. And on top of that, you're going to be able to get access to not only all of my stuff, but all of the stuff from all your favorite creators that you watch on YouTube. But please let me know in the comments section what running backs you're drafting verse avoiding this year and I'll go down there and argue with