Transcription
Ini bisa sama-sama kohesif, tetapi memang di sektor jasa, sektor keuangan, deregulasi itu bisa jadi seperti pedang bermata dua. Kesalahan kita memilih teknologi dan industri yang dikembangkan saat itu mencerminkan bahwa negara bisa memilih, tapi keliru. Kita itu jadi produser terbesar di dunia, enggak bisa ngatur harga. Nah, cilakannya, kita sebagai pembeli terbesar, importir terbesar pun, seperti gula, enggak bisa ngatur harga juga.
Makanya, sejarah kapitalisme itu awalnya adalah dari domba. By nature, kan kita arelago, harus terbuka. Kita enggak bisa jadi negara tertutup dengan proteksionisme, temboknya di mana-mana. Enggak bisa. Jadi, kalau mau menghilangkan penyelundupan karena kita negara kepulauan, itu bea masuknya zero, yang rawan penyelundupan. Saya nanti tugas dari Bea Cukai hanya larta saja untuk narkotika.
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Nah, oke. Lu dulu ya. Gua mau ke toilet dulu. Ya, ya, ya, ya. Oke, kita buka dulu. Kita mulai dari inilah, ee di sini sebelum kita buka floor, ada dua orang senior kita, ada BHM dan Bang Poltak. Mungkin Bang Poltak dulu lah, Bang. Berikan ee satu dua perspektif, pertanyaan dan sampai enggak kabelnya? Ee agak maju, Bang. Agak maju, Bang. Di sini memang ee mikrofon itu direbut, Bang. Enggak bisa diberikan. I finya Ari a direbut, Pak. Iya, duduk aja. Oke, boleh, boleh. Nah, kalau Bang Poltak kedudukan dia enggak berani. Tadi menarik sih penjelasannya Mas Dede sama Mas Jeli juga. Cuman memang em kalau bicara mengenai memelihara konsistensi deregulasi itu kan banyak aktor dalam pemerintahan, dan kita lihat bahwa apa yang terjadi pada waktu, dan kita lihat pada waktu 80-an ketika semangat ee deregulasi dan debirokratisasi muncul, justru ada kesempatan yang hilang ketika terjadi insiden Fairchild.
Jadi, insiden Fairchild itu tahun 1970-an, semikonduktor Amerika beroperasi di Indonesia, dan ekspor Indonesia atas semikonduktor waktu itu naik dengan sangat cepat, sangat signifikan. Tapi kan yang namanya semikonduktor kan urusan dengan urusan yang sangat kecil dan makin makin kecil. Sehingga pada waktu itu National Semiconductor dan Fairchild mengajukan, boleh enggak pakai robot? Diajukannya ke siapa? Menteri Tenaga Kerja.
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Dibilang enggak boleh. Dan kemudian yang terjadi adalah enggak boleh relokasi, dan waktu itu memang cyclisnya lagi turun, keluar dari Indonesia, pindah ke Malaysia, dan kemudian Malaysia jadi raksasa cukup besar, walaupun kemudian ee turun lagi, tapi sekarang bisa balik lagi, kembali lagi sekarang kan. Nah, sekarang, nah jadi mungkin yang perlu kita juga ikut pelihara di sini adalah bagaimana debirokratisasi dan juga deregulasi itu bisa harmoni pada banyak komponen. Karena seperti tadi kan, bahkan ketika di deregulasi pun ada satu yang eh enggak ini kepentingannya enggak adaak, enggak sampai ke sana gitu. Padahal, ekspor Indonesia itu Bu Mari Pangestu tuh nulis mengenai itu, Pak Tikian juga nulis mengenai itu. Bagaimana Indonesia setback benar-benar itu kasih kayak kayak ngasih peluru ke apa ke ke ya Malaysia, dan Indonesia mengalami masuk blacklist selama 15 hampir 20 tahun. Jadi, sangat fatal ee efeknya, padahal itu tengah-tengah keriuhan debirokratisasi dan ee deregulasi.
Kemudian yang mungkin juga perlu diperhatikan adalah capacity. Karena salah satu yang deregulasi yang paling yang dia yang yang signifikan dan berdampak paling dalam adalah regulasi keuangan. Kita tahu waktu pakto dibangun, wah kemudian langsung bank buka banyak sekali, banyak orang buka. Yang kedodoran adalah ternyata sumber daya manusianya enggak cukup. Terjadi banyak membajak bank, kualitas orang yang ada di perbankan turun, enggak ada kedisiplinan. Dan yang terjadi adalah ee kualitas kredit itu menjadi turun juga. Dan itu yang menyeret kita kemudian pada ee keadaan di mana berujung dengan krisis moneter. Bagaimana bisa kok bisa 80% utang tuh jatuh tempo dalam waktu 1 tahun? Ini gimana ceritanya? Bebas sih bebas ya, tapi ini diterjang benar-benar gitu. Jadi, saya saya kira ini yang perlu kita sama-sama lihat, spiritnya yang perlu yang kita melihat ke depan ya, bahwa bagaimana ini bisa sama-sama kohesif, tetapi memang di sektor jasa, sektor keuangan diregulasi itu bisa jadi seperti pedang bermata dua. Memang saat ini kalau boleh dikatakan deregulasi di sektor keuangan sudah jauh lebih baik. Kita punya bank yang semakin saat ini ya boleh kata kuat dan lainnya. Beberapa pihak mungkin mengatakan, enggak jarang ada yang mengatakan sekarang terlalu terlalu ketat, enggak ya. Tetapi ee mungkin juga kita punya contoh-contoh yang mungkin di sisi lain regulasi di sektor jasa yang juga perlu diregulasikan, misalnya terkait dengan terkait dengan jasa kesehatan, misalnya kita punya masalah dengan jumlah dokter, jumlah perawat, sementara di sisi lain kita juga punya peluang. Kenapa? Dunia ini semakin tua. Dan ternyata di berbagai tempat di dunia ketika populasi dunia makin tua, orang cari tempat yang mana ada air, ada mataharinya. Di Eropa orang ke Italia, ke Spanyol dan lainnya. Di Amerika orang ke Florida, orang ke Hawaii, terlalu mahal ya. Nah, sekarang kita bayangkan Asia Tenggara, Asia Timur, orang-orang tuanya, orang kayanya ada di mana? Di tempat yang dingin-dingin. Jepang,
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ee Taiwan, ee Korea dan lainnya. Sekarang mataharinya di mana? Di ASEAN. Surplus matahari kita. Surplus matahari. Orang orang tua tuh kalau enggak bisa kalau enggak bisa dikasih darah dingin sebenarnya. Jadi, sebenarnya kita punya peluang besar di sini ya, bagaimana kita bisa meng-catter ini. Saya yakin misalnya dana pensiun atau misalnya dana asuransi Jepang, kalau misalnya orang Jepangnya itu mau misalnya tinggal di somewhere lah di Bintan misalnya pagi main golf, mungkin yang ibu-ibunya ngerangkai bunga itu biaya hidupnya jauh lebih murah dibandingkan di tempat asli. Mungkin ini hipotesis ya, enggak gampang juga mindahin orang kan. Tetapi jelas bahwa ini ada peluang. Tetapi kembali lagi yang seperti tadi, bisa enggak kita melakukan deregulasi ini pada sektor yang sangat kompleks dan ini terkait dengan kesehatan yang juga semangat nasionalismenya juga bisa sangat berbeda.
Nah, baik. Oke, langsung jawab. Langsung jawab ya. Komentar ya Poltak mengenai satu hal yang ini ini pengalaman ya, karena gua hidup di dua dunia. Satu adalah dunia akademis yang kita bicara mengenai first best world yang ideal ya. Hidup satu lagi di dunia kebijakan yang kemudian membuat saya humble. I'm humble by the political reality. We are not living in the first best world. We are living in the third best world run by the fourth best birocracy. Dan itu adalah fakta. Kita enggak bisa komplain mengenai itu. Nah, di dalam konteks ini, ini saya mau cerita kembali lagi ke Pak Wijoyo ya. Salah satu keunggulan Pak Wijoyo itu adalah pragmatismenya. Dan ini berkali-kali dia bilang sama saya, kadang-kadang melakukan reform enggak bisa seideal yang kita bayangkan. Tadi yang ceritanya Poltak tuh kalau di dalam buku teks itu adalah Kydland and Prescott namanya time consistency. Jadi, kalau kita lakukan itu semuanya harus konsisten sampai ujung. Tetapi kemewahan politik seperti itu di dalam praktik enggak ada. Jadi, saya tanya tadi karena Poltak ngomong mengenai ini, saya tanya sama Pak Wijoyo, "Pak, kalau kita bicara mengenai sequens dari teori, maka yang harus dilakukan pertama deregulasi itu adalah sektor barang, Pak. Baru setelah itu sektor keuangan." Karena apa? Karena sektor keuangan itu kalau dibuka dia langsung punya dampak. Tapi kalau sektor barang misalnya gini, kalau kita nanam bibit kan enggak besok enggak bisa berproduksi, jadi butuh waktu. Karena itu deregulasinya harus dimulai dari sektor barang baru sektor keuangan yang immediate. Itu logikanya itu apa namanya? Ronald McKinnon, the sequence of liberalization. Ya, Pak Wijoyo jawabnya begini. Saya tuh enggak punya kemewahan seperti McKinnon. Saya harus lihat di mana deregulasi yang mungkin. Terus dia bilang, "Saudara Chatib Basri, pada tahun pertengahan-an, seluruh sektor ril itu dimiliki oleh anak-anak Pak Harto, enggak mungkin bisa disentuh. Sektor mana yang bisa dibuka itu adalah sektor perbankan karena belum ada bisnis mereka di sana." Nah, jadi nah ini ini saya bilang kadang-kadang realitas politiknya itu membuat kita untuk bicara tentang sesuatu mana yang mungkin. Ini yang saya sebut sebagai the political economy of the possible. Kita enggak bicara mengenai first best world. Apa yang kita bisa lakukan, lakukan. Jadi, jadi memang enggak ideal. Ada kasus Fairchild, ada banyak kasus. Tapi yang paling penting adalah setiap opportunity yang bisa dilakukan untuk dibuka itu dilakukan.
Nah, tadi juga pertanyaan misalnya tadi pertanyaan mengenai Pak Prabowo. Apa yang kira-kira bisa dilakukan? Ini pernyataan Pak Prabowo sendiri. Presiden itu bicara bahwa di dalam masa puasa kemarin itu relatif harga daging itu stabil. Benar ya? Iya. Nah, dia bilang bahwa penyebabnya adalah kuota importnya itu diemove. Jadi, itu hal-hal yang langsung buat orang itu terasa dampaknya ketika harga dagingnya bisa stabil. Sehingga kita harus berpikirnya jangan kita bilang sama leaders, politician ini harus lakukan, tapi gimana? How to incentivize leaders to support our idea. Problemnya dengan teknokrat adalah kalau kita punya ide, politisinya enggak mau, kita bilang ini sama sekali politisi ini enggak perform. Kita harus berpikir bagaimana kita ngerubah mindset kita, bagaimana reform kita itu beneficial secara politik. Makanya saya kasih contoh selalu misalnya BLT, BLT itu kalau dilakukan itu ngubah dari struktur subsidinya dari BBM kepada direct subsidy itu politically sound. Jadi, kita harus cari area-area yang memungkinkan itu. Misalnya green, bikin yang namanya program cash for training eh cash for work, kerja dibayar. Itu kan secara populis menyenangkan, tapi projectnya mangrove. Jadi itu harus berpikir inovasi model-model kayak gitu gitu. Kalau hambatannya saya nanya tuh kan waktu kepada kaum teknokrat terutama Pak Sadli dan Pak Radius Prawiro eh waktu saya lagi riset disertasi kan di Telkom kan, privatisasi kan langkah-langkah awal dia tuh British Airways lah inilah itu, dia dia sampai muncul istilah eh apa eh kapitalisme rakyat, people's capitalism, artinya jadi pemegang saham semua karena dijual, rakyat boleh beli, jadi bukan nyewa apartemen misalnya apartemen Pertamina dijual sehingga saham dibeli oleh penyewanya gitu. Saya tanya, kenapa BUMN kan BUMN kan yang diprivatisasi kok kita enggak privatisasi langkah-langkah Telkom 8 tahun ini, Pak Harto enggak sekalipun nyentuh adanya BUMN sebagian kayak Telkom kayak ini dimasukin Tbk, jadi Tbk, jadi partial privatization gitu ya, enggak pernah full scale kayak Telkom. Kalau Rezim kan memang enggak ada privatisasi karena enggak ada BUMN kecuali Pos, kecuali Pos, kecuali Pos sama ini apa ee ee
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ee Bendungan Gede. Oh, yang apa di dekat ee Arizona. Nah, ee Pak Sadli jawabnya gampang. L kita juga sadar kok kita enggak sentuh BUMN, cuman paling-paling parsial karena pasar modal. Loh, saya bilang kenapa, Pak? Bukannya sekalian gitu, mumpung Pak Harto kuat kan ada Benny Murdani yang mendukung gitu, ada Sudarmono di Setneg yang mendukung. Ee gini, kita realitasnya begini. Pengusaha kita itu kan masih kecil lapisannya. Kalau kita jual BUMN emang yang bisa beli siapa? Maksudnya perimbangan pengusaha pribumi dan non pribumi. Ya, majority itu kan pengusaha nonpri. Bukan Pak Sadli rasis, bukan. Dia orangnya sangat moderat, kosmopolitan. Dia sadar dengan kenyataan politik bahwa kalau kita Bu jual tahun-an ee Telkom, Pertamina, ee Bank Mandiri, bank segala bank pemerintah, emang yang bisa beli kan cuman itu-itu aja dan mereka kan pasti pengusaha nonpri sebagian besar, sehingga mungkin secara ekonomi lebih efisien, tetapi secara sosial politik lebih runcing hubungan kita. Nah, ini ini penting karena pasar kan tidak bicara soal rational balance. Apa racial balance itu sebagai orang yang melihat pasar yang kagum dengan interaksi volunteri. Kata Hayek, bagaimana harga muncul dengan voluntary apa interaction tanpa dikomandani siapapun gitu. Itu kita kagum. Tapi memang dalam soal ini ya kita harus sadari bahwa ada kenyataan yang di luar operasi pasar yang penting banget. Tanpa itu stability in general for the long term akan terganggu. Jadi, jadi hal-hal kayak gitu. Untungnya dalam banyak operation ekonomi yang perlu dia deregulasi dan debirokratisasi sekarang, dia tidak menyentuh faktor fundamental yang berbahaya. Itu kan apa yang Dede katakan tadi kan tidak mengganggu perimbangan pribumi dan non pribumi gitu loh, tapi memberi keuntungan bagi semua orang kan. Itu kira-kira. Jadi kemudian yang satu lagi soal Fairchild itu penting banget tuh. Ee makanya kan industri substitusi impor yang kita tempuh selama hampir 10 tahun setelah Malari itu dengan bonanza minyak itu ada yang berhasil, pupuk kan swasembada kan. Tapi sebagian besar kan enggak, industri besi kita mana pernah terbang kayak industri besi di Jepang dan Korea Selatan. Demikian pula industri yang diproteksi lainnya gitu. Eh, salah satu itu kan cara berpikir, cara melihat bagaimana kita ini kan yang dikoreksi oleh tadi Wardana, proteksionisme masa lalu, keterbukaan ekonomi masa depan. Nah, ada faktor ee insinyur kita ini, Habibie kan simbolnya salah pilih. Pak Habibie kan ahli mekanika. Ini kan yang dipakai Pak Harto sebagai penasihat utama melihat industri kan. Pak Habibie kan hebat sekali teknologinya, pengetahuan dan karirnya. Tapi kan dia dia lahir di Jerman sebagai teknologika pesawat kan. Begitu dia jadi model pengembangan industri substitusi impor dia kan enggak bisa direplikasi apapun dalam supply chain yang berkembang saat itu. Yang berkembang kan bukan mekanika. Dia kan ahli mekanika. Yang berkembang elektronika dan yang berhubungan dengan elektronika tadi kan elektronika itu kan jantungnya. Kalau kita kalau kita bisa adopsi Fairchild kemudian jadikan Batam itu kan di Batam. Jadi kayak Taiwan, SMTC itu di SMC 80% high tech eh mikroprosesor itu kan disuplai Taiwan dan itu pendirinya itu ceritanya sama dengan cerita Habibie, si siapa namanya yang ee Chang ee Chan ya, pendirinya itu kira-kira sama, bedanya Habibie sekolah di Jerman, pendiri di SMC ini sekolahnya di Stanford sama Harvard, belajarnya elektronika bukan mekanika. Dua-duanya sepintar sama pintarnya. Yang satu memilih jalan teknologi yang berbeda. Yang satu memilih elektronika dan turunannya. Makanya kita menolak Fairchild waktu itu. Karena cara berpikir kita itu industri substitusi impornya itu yang industri berat. Pesawat terbang. Pesawat terbang, besi, pupuk yang kalau berhasil alhamdulillah pupuk kan berhasil untuk swasembada pangan. Tapi yang lain-lainnya kan enggak ada yang punya akibat jangka panjang. Yang penting pabrik pesawatnya Nurtanio yang pernah terbang sebentar kan enggak ada hasilnya sampai sekarang. Betapa mahalnya percobaan kita 50 tahun gitu loh. Sementara di Taiwan, di Malaysia, di Thailand, nih Malaysia yang Fairchild kan pindah ke Malaysia. Nah, ini berhubungan dengan ide dan cara berpikir menurut saya. Dan kebetulan yang hadir di hadapan Pak Harto adalah Pak Habibie. Pak Habibie mengagumkan sebagai presiden, tetapi tidak mengagumkan sebagai teknokrat. Karena dia memilih mekanika pada saat industri yang terbang itu elektronika. 50 tahun terakhir yang berubah tiga ujungnya adalah ini adalah elektronika bukan mekanika. Kecepatan jet 50 tahun terakhir kan enggak berubah. Betul ya? Teknologi penerbangan itu kan enggak ada inovasi apapun yang baru selama 50 tahun terakhir. Tapi elektronika setiap tahun ada perubahan yang baru. Nah, kesalahan kita memilih teknologi dan industri yang dikembangkan saat itu mencerminkan bahwa negara bisa memilih, tapi keliru. Betul ya? Proteksionisme kan kalau sudah berhasil wah hebat. Dari yang berhasil satu, yang gagal 1000 gitu ya. Ini kan. Nah, karena itu apa yang dikatakan Ali Wardana adalah sebuah kerendahan hati untuk menyadari kan itu kutipannya kan bagus banget. Proteksionisme masa lalu, keterbukaan ekonomi masa depan. Karena kita dengan keterbukaan dengan swasta swasta yang berkembang maka gravitasi itu bisa bertemu. Tidak harus terkunci pada satu pilihan. Kalau keliru 50 tahun kita keliru. Kita memilih industri penerbangan. Industri besi 50 tahun kita terjebak berputar-putar tidak ada pengembangan. Betapa ruginya Taiwan yang dari negara semiskin kita tahun 60-an sekarang jadi negara maju luar biasa. Dan itu mahal sekali, Bang, ya. Industri berat itu, Bang, ya. Mahal bukan cuma ongkosnya, tapi waktu setengah abad, Bos. Setengah abad kita dalam kesalahan yang sama. Dan satu mungkin saya tambahkan ke Bang Celi tadi karena salah satu yang juga industri mikro elektronik pada waktu itu di Bandung, Metrako ketika eh National Semiconductor dan Fairchild keluar kan enggak ada supplier lagi. Jadi orang-orang yang bekerja sana ya enggak tahu mesti ngetang apa. Akhirnya mereka downgrade sama dengan industri penerbangan kita. Kebetulan waktu saya sekolah, saya di Bristol ketemu dengan banyak orang Indonesia. Ada ada 10 12 keluarga. Dulu mereka kerja di IPTN, tapi mereka sampaikan gaji saya di Airbus bikin sayapnya A380 itu 10 12 kali di IPTN dan saya bangga yang saya kerjakan. Jadi jadi kan kita sebenarnya kalau kesalahan seperti tadi itu ongkosnya mahal bukan cuman bukan cuman di sisi waktu dan tetapi juga human resource yang sudah dibentuk enggak bisa ke mana-mana jadinya. Jadi intinya adalah kalau kita berpikir alternatif, what if in history seandainya Fairchild kita terima di Batam dan kita dorong industri elektronika, GDP kita sekarang yang 23.000 barangkali bisa 5 kali lipat, 100.000 barangkali kita sudah bagian dari negara maju di tingkat awal. Nah, Morris Chang. Dia itu kalau kita pelajari hidupnya sama dengan Pak Habibie. Cuma yang satu sekolah di Jerman, satu sekolah di Stanford, dan saya ingat waktu itu kan saya di MIT dan Stanford, dia doktornya Stanford, satunya di Harvard dan dia pulang karena di Intel karirnya enggak naik karena yang dipilih orang-orang bule dan dia dipanggil oleh presiden Taiwan ya sebagaimana Pak Habibie dipanggil oleh Pak Harto lewat ee Ibnu Sutowo. Ibnu Sutowo. Sama ini orang sukses Indonesia di Eropa, orang sukses Taiwan di Amerika, dia di Texas Instruments kan si. Nah, intinya buat Pak Prabowo sekarang ya ini kan kita masuk ke sekarang kan ya banyak potensi baru yang kita kembangkan. Jangan ulangi kesalahan lama yang membuat kita 50 tahun terjebak di jalan yang tidak jelas. Kata-kata Pak Sumitro saya kutip di buku ini bagus banget untuk pendamping zaman ini. Diregulasi dia bilang soal ekonomi perizinan dan waktu itu dia contohnya Ikor, ekonomi perizinan membuat kita dia bilang berjalan dalam kesulitan yang satu ke kesulitan yang lain. Kita tinggalkan deh sekarang ekor kita dan lima waktu itu dia bilang waktu itu, sekarang sudah en tantangannya lebih besar lagi. Jadi tujuan untuk mengefisienkan ekonomi dengan mengurangi birokrasi yang berlebihan, ekonomi perizinan yang berlebihan. Kata Pak Sumitro waktu itu bukannya tidak bertentangan dengan keadilan, justru merupakan instrumen keadilan yang utama. Itu penting tuh kepada Sumitro baru dan penerusnya sekarang. Iya, kan kita harus ingatkan itu. Jangan ulangi kesalahan lama. Ikuti yang bagus di masa lalu, tahun '80-an deregulasi, kesempatan ke depan terbuka. Kalau situasi internasional sementara seperti ini, that's ok. Justru jadikan momentum untuk melangkah lebih cepat. Kira-kira itu yang bisa dikatakan sekarang. 50 tahun dalam kesalahan itu berat. Iya, 50 tahun dalam kesalahan itu berat. Apalagi kita 50 tahun sekarang dan selamanya. C ya. Ya, itulah tadi kan ada yang bilang pindah lah inilah. Loh, sebenarnya itu semua kalau kita benar tahun '80-an melangkahnya itu kita sudah advance economy. Iya. Terus terang aja. Dan enggak boleh di Batam karena Batam itu teritorinya Pak Habibie juga itu, Bang ya. Iya, kan itu Pak Habibie. Iya. Oke. Kan Batam cuma berjarak setiap sekian kilo dari Singapura kan. Cita-citanya supaya Batam itu menjadi another Singapura, kalau bisa lebih karena kan Singapura tidak punya hinterland. Ya, Batam kalau berhasil dia punya kita-kita hinterland-nya. Batam kalau sekarang Singapura itu 150.000 eh US dollar GDP per kapita. Batam kalau dia berhasil bisa lebih dari itu. Karena dia punya kita, dia punya hinterland. Tapi sayang tidak. Nah, jangan ulangi kesalahan itu. Gitu. Oke, tepuk tangan dong Bang Poltak. Thank you, Bang Poltak. Kembali lagi Ari masuk lagi. Coming from behind. BMG, BHM, BHM, BHM, gantian gua yang mau kencing. RBM dulu. 50 tahun dalam kesalahannya seperti 100 tahun dalam kesunyian ini. Oh, 1000, 100 tahun. Iya iya, Gabriel Garcia Marquez ini. Iya, silakan BHM. Saya menemani aja di sini, ajudan BHM. Ya, kalau saya agak kaget juga Mbak, Bang apa? Cheri ini ee Rizal ini begitu takut dengan 50 tahun kesalahan ya. Karena kalau dulu kan kesalahan 100 tahun. Nah, karena karena begini dulu waktu dia aktivis mahasiswa, berjuang untuk demokrasi, demokrasi itu kan semacam memberi kesempatan buat anak muda menemukan kesalahan supaya dia bisa belajar dari kesalahan itu. Ada unsur trial and error. Demokrasi itu kan ada unsur trial and error. Karena kita selalu bisa membenahi. Kita buat kesalahan, kita tahu kalau perlu kita ganti pimpinan, kita buat lagi sesuatu yang baru, gitu. Jadi kesalahan itu tidak ee berlangsung lama. Ee ya, kesalahan 50 tahun ini adalah contoh tidak ada demokrasi kan, sehingga trial and error itu tidak berjalan. Salah, salah terus. Itu yang terjadi di Uni Soviet, 70 tahun kesalahan kan sampai muncul Glasnost. Coba zaman Mao Zedong Cina tuh berapa puluh tahun kesalahan tahun ya? Iya kan? Jadi lompatan sampai Deng Xiaoping '78 ya kan? Dan ternyata Cina sekarang bisa nomor dua di dunia. Jepang berapa ratus tahun kesalahan ya kan sampai hancur lebur di Perang Dunia Kedua, bisa jadi negara nomor satu setelah, sehingga saking kuatnya dikeroyok Amerika dan Eropa dengan Plaza Accord. Habis gitu stuck dia sampai sekarang kan. Jadi eh that is eh itu kesalahan lama itu karena kita enggak demokratis justru ya. Kita lihat Jerman coba sampai hancur lebur kan gara-gara kesalahan ketika Perang Dunia itu ya. Dan dia belajar dari situ dia enggak mau lagi enggak demokratis. Makin berat kesalahan. Dan ternyata bayangin ya, kita lihat dua negara yang bikin kesalahan sampai dihancurkan. Jepang tuh sampai dibom nuklir. Enggak ada loh negara di dunia yang dua kali dibom nuklir. Satu kali aja enggak ada kecuali Jepang. Iya kan? Iya, satu-satunya, Mas. Satu-satunya. Tapi dia kemudian bangkit menjadi negara demokrasi. Sempat loh GDP per kapitanya tertinggi di dunia kan tahun '80-an sampai Eropa dan Amerika repot bikin Plaza Accord. Sekarang yang terjadi pada Cina, saking majunya Eropa, Trump terutama Amerika, wah ini mesti direm. Dia bikin perang tarif ya. Ee karena apa? Sekarang kok tumben Cina ini negara yang tidak demokratis tapi tidak bikin kesalahan sampai sekarang ya, God lucky lah seperti Singapura kalau menurut saya ya, walaupun kalau lihat dari statistik biasanya kalau negara otoriter itu biasanya bikin kesalahan karena power tends to corrupt, tapi dulu kita bilang Singapura kekecualian karena negara kecil, tapi Cina setelah yang shopping sekarang kan pertanyaan tinggal apakah si Jinping yang semakin otoriter ini nanti akan membuat kesalahan dan tanda-tandanya sudah ada loh, Bung. Kita jangan terlalu kagum sama Cina ya sekarang kalau Bung Poltak juga tahu sekarang tuh ada sekitar 50 juta unit rumah yang kosong di Cina, bayangin 50 juta itu artinya apa, seluruh keluarga Indonesia dipindahin ke sana punya rumah, Bang. Bang Arap, juta. Enggak perlu bisa dipecat ya, Rp juta ya cuma Rp3 juta aja sudah pusing, di sana kelebihan Rp50 juta. Dan kita jangan kagum juga dengan apa bahwa dia punya 3 triliun devisa bulan Januari, pasti turun Rp triliun karena di sana warga itu hanya boleh beli dolar 50.000 dolar setahun. Begitu Januari buru-buru dia beli, turunlah itu devisa ya. Jadi artinya there is still something fishy going on yang harus kita hati-hati. Apalagi utangnya juga sudah apa berbahaya ya, banyak masalah. Jadi saya kira kalau kita lihat Cina dia masih punya PR gitu loh bahwa ee apa soft landing-nya gimana nanti gitu loh. Karena ini Cina ini beginian besar. Kita semua berdoa dan berusaha supaya dia kalau landing soft gitu karena kalau enggak kita semua kena dampaknya ya. Nah, tapi kembali ke Indonesia ya. Saya terus terang lihat kalau kita lihat Presiden Prabowo mau enggak mau ya kita harus baca paradoks Indonesianya ya dan dia cukup konsisten di situ. Dan tadi Anda bicara keluarga intelektual, kalau kita lihat kakeknya Pak Margono kan dulu sekolahnya ke Belanda tentang kredit buat koperasi buat koperasi kecil ya kan. Kemudian Pak
Sumitro implemented that fortress because at that time, it was considered that indigenous groups, the majority of the population, did not have access to the market. He wasn't actually racist at the time. But it happened that during the Dutch era, if people were taken during the war with the Dutch after the KMB dissolved, then what remained were only groups of Chinese and Arab descent. And finally, a fortress policy was implemented, but it was outmaneuvered by what? Alibaba, right? It didn't work either. And we learned from that. We should learn that policies based on excessive government intervention in an archipelago country like Indonesia, which my friends in the trading sector call a haven for smugglers, shouldn't make us think that we can control everything, even if the head of Customs is a Kopasus general, I don't think it's easy to guard Indonesia, the largest archipelago country in the world, to secure it from such activities.
I agree with our Minister of Finance, hopefully his career will have a good next step. Amen. I think it's true that it might be better with tariffs. I think Mr. President Trump is right about that, rather than with prohibitions. Because I'll give an example, let's also give an example of what was successful, right? In my opinion, the BPD (regional development bank) for palm oil is an example of a successful policy. Why? Because first of all, we control our production, we are number one in the world, right? CPO, we are number one in the world. And the product is very competitive in its class among vegetable oils; the production costs are unmatched by palm oil, so we can arrange it. Okay, if you export CPO when the price is above the normal profit price, you should contribute a little in export levies, not for the state budget, but for the regions to develop this industry to make it more efficient and more valuable. This is the essence, Mas. So, I think that instead of thinking about the essence, it's better to implement what has been successfully done in BPDKS on our world champion exports like coal and nickel. So, if the price is certainly profitable, super profitable, a portion is shared, not for state revenue, but for developing downstream industries. So, if we look at the CPO sector, its downstream industry continues to develop every year. Even Unilever moved its factories from the Philippines, from everywhere to Indonesia because of the raw materials. And imagine, we are the world's number one biodiesel producer, number one. And what's unique about it? The biodiesel subsidy is not financed by the state budget. Ultimately, it's our cooking oil buyers in India, China, Pakistan, everyone who imports our CPO and cooking oil. So, imagine the government can subsidize biodiesel without spending the state budget, but paid by consumers in China, India, Pakistan, isn't that nice? And that should be able to be done for coal. Imagine how much coal costs now? 130 dollars per ton. My reference is how much? 60 times. It was 400, right? It was 400, right? Even though I see, you understand, right? Even though, yes, the price, my friends in the coal industry, anyway, as long as the reference price is above 40 dollars, they sleep soundly. Imagine the price was ever 400, right? Imagine the price of nickel. Well, you will also know about nickel. If, if, if, if the efficient ones like Vale, as long as it's above 10,000 dollars, they sleep soundly. But the price was once 30,000 dollars, right? 3 years ago, maybe. But we didn't get anything like the export levies like palm oil. All we get is the pollution, right? Well, that's what we can answer later, we'll ask him, right? Why can't this be applied to coal, to nickel? We are world champions. We are often the world's largest coal exporter. Several times, yes. Nickel is now a champion. Well, this is what I'm also asking Pak Bung Dede, we are the world's largest producers, we can't control the price, right? Including rubber, for example, rubber, if it's just us and Thailand, we already dominate, but China controls the price, yes, for tin and so on, London controls the price, even though we are the largest producers. Well, the characteristic is that we, as the largest buyers, the largest importers, like sugar, also can't control the price. Well, this is only, according to Rocky, because we are just stupid, yes. Because if we are the largest producer or the largest importer, we should have influence on pricing. Okay. Well, this is my question, I want to ask these two, while I return the chair to Budi because I don't like fighting over chairs. Awesome. B mentioned the downstream industry of CPO, we don't have a PCO downstream industry yet. Yes, there's no PCO, presidential communication office. The downstream industry of PCO doesn't exist yet, right? According to Hasan Rasmi, if CPO is cash in, if PCO is cash out. How about that? Please, Bang Jeli and Bang Red first, maybe. And BHM is also part of the liberal epistemic community group, formerly part of Tempo, to encourage deregulation. I'll answer the technical ones first, regarding what's called, regarding the export issue, actually, what BHM said is completely true. Because what? For example, this starts from nickel, yes. Nickel, at first, it happened, by chance, I was the Minister of Finance at that time. So, when it was first implemented, where the export of raw materials was not allowed, the instrument we used was export tax. So, if the company hasn't built a smelter, the export tax is around 40% or 60%, meaning they can't export, it's a prohibitive tax. But if they build their smelter 30%, then the T decreases. It decreases to, I forget, 25% or something. Later, if they have fully done it domestically, then the export becomes zero. So, inevitably, our products will be competitive. Well, the goal is, if that government will get revenue from there, yes. The government will get revenue from there and will guarantee competitiveness. But after that, it seems, this is my assumption, DM, the government considers that it's much more effective if it's exported. I don't know the reason. Maybe if it's just forbidden, it's more, what's it called, more forceful. So, after that, in 2018, maybe an export ban was implemented. The same thing, actually, I also proposed it for coal. Well, this is the case of coal. Why is coal not allowed to implement what's called DMO, domestic market obligation. So, if a coal company, Sally is familiar with this, they produce, yes. Then 25% must be supplied domestically, to PLN. Because later, if 25%, if it's sold for export, the coal isn't here, then PLN has to buy at international prices. So, actually, it was proposed at that time, it wasn't agreed upon, it's like this, don't use that, just give a tax, yes. Give export tax. So, they want to sell, they can sell at any price at the international price. The government gets revenue, the money is used to subsidize PLN. So, PLN doesn't have two prices there. Like solar, yes. Oh, the same thing also at that time, but the government didn't want to do it when it came to cooking oil, the price of cooking oil can't be set. Just let the price be, the market price. If people then complain because cooking oil is expensive, give them BLT (direct cash assistance). H. So, it's always, if there are two prices, it's impossible. Yes. Yes, two prices are impossible. So, one price, but the group that is then affected is given a cushion. That's why the concept is always, it's like this, yes, this goes back to, sometimes things like this are not politically attractive. Why? Because the price looks expensive, you know. People want to see is that if the price in the store looks like we can control it, there's all this. Whereas what should be done is impossible. What should be done is just let the price be the market price, but then the people are subsidized. So, it goes back to BAM's question, that's why it only happened to palm oil but not done on coal, not done on nickel. I'm being frank, the revenue should be huge if export tax is imposed on coal. On coal. And you don't have to ask Cli. In my opinion, coal entrepreneurs are happier if export tax is imposed rather than DMO. Okay. Because they get revenue, the revenue can be sold. Then impose a high one, we want the government to get revenue, then give it to PLN. Well, PLN changes its subsidy system. PLN has data by name by address. If not, they can't do billing, right? And electricity is not a transferable commodity. It can be transferred but the risk is high. Right? If the goods cannot be transferred, we have data by name by address, price discrimination can be applied. Poor households don't pay, this one pays. So, some of the subsidies can be released. The text results. Some of the text results are like that, or basic consumption doesn't pay. Right. So, that can be done like, for example, at the university, you can know which students are poor, scholarships, right? If it's electricity, it's possible because for every household, we know it by name by address, if not, there can't be billing. So, things like that should be able to be done. Okay, Bang Jelli, immediately respond to BH. Yes, but starting with vaname shrimp first is also okay, isn't it? If the difference between palm oil, coal, nickel, well, if palm oil, it's because its nature, the nature of the business, palm oil grows, it needs rejuvenation, it needs fertilizer, right? So, if the government takes some for fertilizer, rejuvenation for the neglected or the poor, there's a sense to it, right? As far as I know, if nickel and coal, it opens forests, takes land, makes, if there's no money saved for replanting, making forests again, it's not logical, right? So, if there is a levy to improve nature, it's justified, of course, the others are taxes for the equitable development of the region, it goes without saying. But the point is, if it's about what Dedek said, it's true. I just don't know why Mas Bambang wants to set the price, if we, I don't know if it's possible to set the price if we, the price of cabbage, or need or can, I don't know. Let the economy, I don't see the urgency, we don't set prices, just tariffs. Tariffs. Okay. If it's tariffs, it's always better than non-tariffs overall. Because if it's tariffs, everyone knows and it's recorded and open. If it's quotas, there are always winners, and because of that, there's a power relationship there, right? That's the textbook. So, it will be better if, if there must be protection, the protection is through tariffs. But tariffs have been decreasing overtime for 80 years in this world, from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 30s, its effectiveness was approximately 20% overtime. In America, before Trump, the first Trump, 1.5%, he increased it to 3%. Right, if in NAFTA it's 0% in practice. Indonesia is also like that. When America and Europe lowered their tariffs, we also lowered ours. Now, it's more or less plus or minus 5%, now if America with Trump, before Trump, crazy 2, April 2nd, yes, now it's increasing again, like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, 20%, 25%, oh higher than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, higher than the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, right, effective 20%, yes, correct me if I'm wrong, which resulted in World War II, yes, which resulted in World War II, one of the contributing factors, a contributor to World War II, because of the Great Depression, right, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act worsened the already bad situation because the economy was bad, America was bad, Japan was bad, Germany was bad, Britain was bad. So, people who were already, then Hitler appeared, Mussolini appeared, who were already red lights, were given fuel, you know, burned all at once. In Japan, the invasion of Manchuria, the invasion of Manchuria made America say, "I boycott you, Japan. Stop. You can't get fuel supplies. Japan said, "You boycott me, I'll attack you. I'll attack, they attacked Pearl Harbor. Because they attacked Pearl Harbor, they had to go to Sumatra." Why did Japan occupy Indonesia? Because they were interested in our oil in Sumatra. H and Kalimantan. Yes, at that time, Balikpapan. But Mas, the largest one is Chevron and everything in Aceh and Riau. Oh, Dumai. Dumai is it. Dumai. Dumai. So, we were colonized by Japan, and Japan was a contributor to World War I, eh, II, and made them bombed twice, made them have to attack Pearl Harbor because they invaded Manchuria and they needed to go to Sumatra for our oil. That's the structural cause of World War II. Bang, Bang, Bang, Bang, wait a minute, Bang. Our oil is different, Bang. Our oil is cooking oil. The subsidized cooking oil is called our oil, Bang. So, so, yes. Bambador. So, different oil, if before, right. Well, the point is, if, if, if, if we want to, back to me, if this is like this, in the future, we can't just rely on palm oil, on nickel, on coal, no matter how good it is. Because commodities go up and down, and we are not like Canada and Australia, larger land area and natural resources to support 20-30 million people. We are an archipelago with an increasingly large population, without industrialization, without service economy, without creative economy, it's difficult to imagine us becoming an advanced economy in the future, that's about it. Well, because of that, Polta's previous question is very good about Fairchild, that's one of the keys, in my opinion, after I've seen our history, where we were good, where we made the wrong steps, Fairchild, after Fairchild, the pieces are Intel, Fairchild was made by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore. With Moore's Law in the development of semiconductors, transistors, yes, the inventor of transistors, Shockley, Shockley made a company in Palo Alto, employing eight young people, one of them was Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore. They were the ones who found the combination of transistors and made it into one integrated unit called a semiconductor. Chip, integrated circuit, Shockley who invented the transistor, but these young people made the integrated circuit, combining transistors, adding memory and computing functions. Well, that's creative, that's technology, and at that time, Fairchild, before splitting into Intel, was already in Batam. Right, they asked for permission from Pak Domo. Pak Domo, we want to develop this in robotics. At that time, the New Order regime, represented by Pak Domo, said, "No, you can't move to Malaysia because we believe in mechanics." Mechanics. Because they were asked, how about the industries in the future, heavy industry, aircraft industry, this iron industry, not electronics and its derivatives, you know. Well, this is a juncture in history. If our choice at that time was electronics, the last 50 years would have been a different story, Bang. But the question is, why did we have to face Pak Domo, Coordinating Minister for Polkam, Minister? At that time. This is because the koptip, no, yes, the Manpower Minister. So, the authority is Pak Habibie for Batam, but the sector is the Manpower Minister, sectoral. So, two, two, two. Well, so in the future, what was good before, that there is coal, there is nickel, there is downstreaming. Very good nickel. This nickel has two types. High-grade nickel, 1.5% and above. Low-grade nickel. High grade is for stainless steel and its derivatives. We are the world's largest exporter for that. A big player. For batteries, which are cheaper, the industry is just developing. We are just starting to move towards that, downstreaming. There are several who have started to open, like Dek, if I'm not mistaken, Hyundai wants to build it, yes, there are several, yes, that's good for the future and this is what keeps the economy alive, for a while, East Indonesia can't just catch fish, the more fish are caught, the less their number, the better the technology, the less their income in the future, it's like the sea is running out, so if East Indonesia, which has many islands and seas, is not given the opportunity to develop with the downstreaming of natural resources that happen to be in Kalimantan, Coal, in Maluku and Sulawesi, Nickel, we don't have a source of growth in this vast area. But if in Java and Sumatra, the mainstay shouldn't be like this, Mas Bambang. Must be what, especially Java, Dek. We can't make large plantations in Java. We can't make large agricultural areas in Java. We can only make something based on creativity, technology, and don't forget tourism, cultural creativity. Yogyakarta as a center, Borobudur as a center, Banyuwangi, don't forget, tourism generates a lot of money in the future. The more advanced the community, the greater their spending on sectors such as tourism and health, it's getting bigger. The sector with the most employment now in America. Do you know what, Bang? The health sector. The most common profession now is nurses. Then healthcare workers, elderly care, caregivers, yes. Doctors are now the highest-paid, most developing, and most numerous sector. Those who work in factories only remain 8% of people. Agriculture, I see the latest figure, Dek, is only 0.3% in America. In America now, 0.3%. More employees in the Department of Agriculture than farmers. Because 606,000 hectares can be one family using airplanes and mechanization. Mechanization, Indonesia must go there. Right, Mas Bambang? We are an archipelago country with 300 million people. In 20 years, 400 million people. In 50 years, we will be 125 billion people. How do we feed them with our archipelago? The land area of an island is only one-third of the territory. If America, all its territory is land. In Central America, Midway, all its land is flat and fertile. So, with mechanization, only 0.3% of humans feed 320 million plus Americans. Meaning, it's exported to China, exported to Indonesia, Americans are still eating. Indonesia must find a modern way to farm, which is impossible in Java, to feed even 500 million people in 20 years, 40 years from now. This is strategic thinking for the future, if we talk about food, if we want so many percent of our food to be produced domestically, it's strategic, you don't need 100%. Well, how to get there without technology is impossible. But the productivity per hectare is still very low. Oh, low. Exactly. We are 4 to 5 tons per hectare. If in Florida, I read the latest news, they made rice, trying it, if I'm not mistaken, up to 10 tons per hectare. Florida is that. Florida, this Mississippi and Florida in the Banks of the Mississippi River. They never planted rice but they tried. They can 9 to 10. Why? Because in our country, the land concentration is small, only half a hectare per person, productivity is not economical, soft skills can't be obtained. While what Celi said, if you want to do economic skills, the land must be large. That's why, this is a little bit. That's why the history of capitalism is initially from sheep. Why from sheep? Sheep need very large land. Yes. That's why there must be capital accumulation in the land. While in Java, it starts from what? Livestock, chickens, which don't need land concentration, trees. Yes, that's why it is said that capitalism initially comes from sheep because it requires very large economic soft skills. That's why the prophets have ever taken care of sheep, they were all shepherds, shepherds. That's why until now, those who are lost are sheep, Bang, yes, not chickens, Bang? Yes. It goes back to the moral of the story is that a country like ours, the final conclusion, Bang. The final conclusion. Oh, yes. Wisdom and wisdom of the conclusion. So, by nature, we are an archipelago, we must be open. We can't be a closed country with protectionism, walls everywhere. We can't. By nature, since the time, yes, our favorite food is gado-gado, mixed, because we are historically in the mutual influence of several major civilizations, China, India, Islamic, continued again. Remember, because Pak Sadli once said, "We were born, we were born as free traders because of the archipelago." So, it's impossible to make high tariffs. That's why Pak Sadli said the best way to avoid smuggling is zero import duties. If there are no import duties, there is no price difference between Jakarta and Singapore, why would people smuggle? So, if you want to eliminate smuggling because we are an archipelago, the import duties are zero, which is prone to smuggling. So, later, the task of customs is only for narcotics. But because there is no price difference, people won't smuggle. The price is the same. Smuggling occurs because of price disparities, right? Continue. Okay. So, that's one technical aspect of what we call the spirit of openness, right? It means there are benefits because indeed, if you're closed, you can't, you know. So, that's one. The second policy choice in the future is already good regulation, but it's not enough. Not enough means there must be other choices. What technology are we developing? Because if we are open, but open to choosing the wrong policy, it's a shame. The same as our mistake in choosing the wrong one yesterday, rejecting Fairchild, building an iron industry that turned out to be a failure, right? Building an aircraft industry that turned out to be a failure. Don't repeat it because we rely on the creativity of Indonesian youth. Because there's a digital economy now that helps choices easily. People can learn easily. So, so, the prerequisite for further progress is only the right leadership with sufficient support. I think with people like the Minister of Finance. Right? That's important, the Minister of Finance, Boss. Bang, I feel a little sorry to hear the last part. But it's okay. I agree. Yes, you, what's it called? A little bit of space opens up, Bang. Opens up. Yes. Space to enter. Space to enter. Okay, that's it, Bang. Bang Dede, can you add a little bit, considering the wisdom, there was no mention before, I thought it was at the end, yes, strong leadership. If there is a will, there is a way. It should be, life is action. Right? Okay. In Indonesia, it's the opposite, R. If Celi always says, "If there is a will, there is a way." In the case of Indonesia, it's sometimes the opposite. If there is a way, there is a will. Okay, applause. Thank you. We have successfully discussed the thoughts of Sumitro Jodi Kusumo, yes. Yes. And it feels like Pak Prabowo is somewhat, somewhat, somewhat unlikely not to be influenced and unlikely not to follow. Okay. And this forum, we hope will be regular, Din, to discuss this economy, yes. Yes. Come on, Bang, yes. And today, Sumitro Jori Kusumo. Maybe next time, we can move on to Sumitro Celeng, Bang. Sumitro Celeng is General Sumitro. We know the term Malari from Opong Panda. Do you know General Sumitro Celeng? Sumitro Celeng who? Opong turned out to be Sumitro Malari, the head of Kamtip, this is it. Yi. Okay. Yes. See you again. See you. Okay, thank you. [Music]