Transcription
Hello everyone. Well, we're going to have a little private briefing to get a bit clearer. Well, I've already come back, I'm going to go back over the message I sent you yesterday. So indeed, our on-chain analysis tools are a bit disrupted since the migration we have on Coinbase. So for a little context, what you see on the screen, the significant change in cohort, is precisely linked to this famous migration. So what you need to know is that for on-chain analysis, how does it work? You are able to look on the Bitcoin blockchain ledger at all the addresses and the level of Bitcoin holdings they possess. So obviously the first remark we have is that consequently, we are able to classify them by different cohorts. Well, except that you can imagine that when you own, let's say, I don't know, 30,000 Bitcoin, generally you don't have one address on which you hold all 30,000 Bitcoin. It would be risky from a hacking perspective, from a security perspective, and so on. That can be complicated. So in fact, what institutions, large portfolios, large investors, entities, and so on, all these groups of large investors will do, is they will split their portfolio into different parts. Except that from algorithms and also from cross-referencing, you are able to say, "Well, these addresses actually belong to the same entity because they systematically send to each other, they do a ping-pong of money going from one side to the other and so on." Well, if you have two portfolios on two exchanges and you systematically send from one to the other, from the other to one, and so on, without selling them, okay? Only transfers. Well, you have a high probability that it's one and the same person or entity that owns these two wallets. And so this is all the work that Cryptoque does. That's why they charge so much for their subscriptions, because it's not that easy. You really have to stick your nose into the addresses, into the, well, really sniff all the transactions and so on to be able to make different cohorts out of them. Well, you see that it still works pretty well because it still gives signals. The issue is that we have Coinbase, the world's leading exchange, which has decided to migrate Bitcoin and Ethereum from some portfolios to other portfolios for security reasons. They do rotations and so on. And so you see that here, for example, they have portfolios on which it looks like it has been massively sold because we have portfolios that weigh, you see here between 10 and 100 Bitcoin or between 100 and 1000 Bitcoin. Okay? So globally between 10 and 1000 Bitcoin, you have portfolios that have been recovered to be transferred to other portfolios that currently hold between 1000 and 10000. So it looks like we had massive purchases from this cohort and sales from these two cohorts, but in fact, it's only Coinbase, which owns portfolios in these three, in these three cohorts, that has decided to transfer Bitcoin that was stored here and here to portfolios that are now here. So indeed, while they correct. So, they will correct, they will simply reattach the portfolios they saw, which have seen this transfer. Okay? So if you had a wallet that held, I don't know, 230 Bitcoin that was sent to a wallet with 1600 Bitcoin, well, they will be able to map them by saying these are Coinbase's portfolios. Okay? And so this is what Cryptoqu is doing, the same for Glass node and so on. And so this will correct this chart so that we can have more reliable information and therefore something that is less inconsistent. Well, so I have my colleague from Cryptost Academy, who published, who published just last night, a tweet and well, I don't know how to say it on X now that it's called X, but you see, he shares some interesting things, as you can see, yesterday at 8:40 PM he shared this, and well, you see that unfortunately he also made the, did not make the distinction. So indeed, the 500,000 Bitcoin we were talking about which were bought around $84,565, well, unfortunately, it's not a purchase, it's only the migration from Coinbase. That being said, you see, unfortunately, on-chain analysts, we were a bit fooled at this level. So already, I apologize for this false signal. Where I, between quotes, have less regret in announcing this to you, is that despite everything, Bitcoin has gone up a bit, altcoins have gone up or stagnated. So well, it's a free warning, but it's still a warning. Okay? So not taking it into account would be stupid. So we need to be more vigilant in the future, and I will strive to be. So here at the level of, but already, and by the way, I take this opportunity to thank you, thank you for your understanding, but also for appreciating, whether it's the transparency and so on regarding the backtrack. What you need to know is that, well, I have no qualms about being wrong or anything. If trading, investing, and so on, prove one thing to us, it's that it's important to be humble. Okay? The market doesn't always go in the direction we predicted. We announce things that don't necessarily happen. We announce things that happen, but it's never certain. We are never sure if it's from a single indicator, if it's from a strategy, from a moment. The moment we press buy, we don't know if it's going to go up. Well, you have to move forward in uncertainty. So there's no problem for me in backtracking. It has to be done quickly and transparently, because from the moment I realize this, you also need to be able to act because, well, because obviously it affects you too. So you see, that being said, there's still a lot of things. So here, Professor Cha is talking about it. Obviously, it's something we always look at. You see here, we are on Binance perpetual contracts. We have large liquidation lines just above the price. Obviously, we have good hope that this can be executed and therefore see Bitcoin recover these levels. $97,400, $96,800. Well, before that, we have a zone that's not very prominent. We'll try to display that, but a bit before. You see here, above these, above these previous previous tops. Well, these are not what we call equal highs. Okay? So peaks at the same height here and here. So there's a bit less interest for the market to specifically recover this zone. Okay? But you still have here, let's say a mini trendline, okay? Which is there. So potentially, we might want to recover just these levels. Okay? Recover here between $90,000 and $92,000 to turn around. So we'll have to be more and more vigilant now. I told you, we were in overbought zones, excess zones. I react very little to these zones, but honestly, I spend a lot of time studying the chart, the price action, okay? Because ultimately, that's what you have to look at, it's really the price action, the price dynamics. As you can see here, we have some things that are a bit, a bit dangerous, honestly, to have recovered this level and then re-entered. Honestly, I'm very careful about that. Okay? The fact that we have a structure like this invites me to think that we haven't finished the bullish movement. And so, likely, we could have at a minimum something like this. Okay? Recover this zone here. And at that point, we'll have to be very vigilant. Okay? Between $89,000 and $92,000, we'll have to be very vigilant. And there, I will probably, well, if you receive a message at that point, saying that I have reduced my portfolio, don't be surprised, because this is more of a zone to unload than a zone to reload. Okay? For now, we're going up in a straight line, it's happening with very little strength. We are already creating divergences, okay? Well, for now, it's more of a compression zone than a divergence zone, okay? So here, we have a trendline and let's say a trendline like this. Okay? And it's also visible on the momentum. Okay? On the momentum level, we haven't broken anything yet. Okay? You see here, we haven't broken the structure that holds us at the RSI level. So potentially, for now, we are not creating divergence. But if you see, we make a small peak like this and at the RSI level, we do this, and on the descent, you see like this, hop, and we do this, which is very likely. Well, that would mean that we have a bearish momentum, that we have come to the localization level, settled right in a zone of imbalance, in fact, of imbalance between buyers and sellers. Strong imbalances between buyers and sellers materialize as very powerful candles. So here, you see that we have had very powerful bearish candles. So at that point, these are generally zones on which the price comes to settle. And at that point, well, it's precisely a lot of vigilance that we need to have to anticipate potential reversals. To reload a bit more deeply, we will surely have to wait for this zone. Okay? So here, you see, I've drawn it. It's simply a Fibonacci between the top here and the bottom here. Okay? So you have the levels between $82,500 and $84,000. So potentially, you see, if we do something like this, hop, we could make a structure like this, and here, we could reload at that point. If we are bullish, precisely, if the rest of the analysis gives us a bullish bias, it's in this zone that we will look for a purchase. Okay? So for now, I am vigilant. So we have reduced our exposure following the backtrack on this somewhat negative news that massive purchases have not necessarily taken place. So I've gone back to 80%. It's very likely that I'll go back to 50% if we reach these zones. I won't necessarily reduce my exposure more than that because I estimate that we are still at major low points. But obviously, the further we advance in the rebound, the more vigilant we need to be because if we have a bear market scenario for now, well, I don't really like talking about bear market or bull market and so on because in reality, it's ultimately of little interest to us to know if we are in a bull market or a bear market. Because anyway, what you need to know is at a given moment, do you invest or do you not invest? Okay? When we were in 2021. Okay, let's look at that. 2021, 2022. Here, those who were there at that time, they didn't know if it was a bull market, bear market, I don't know, and so on. And when it was really confirmed, it was when we were here, and when we had the Terra Luna crash and well, okay, we were in a bear market, but what does that mean? Because if you wait for absolute confirmation that you are in a bear market to sell, well, you sell at the bottom or almost, okay, you sell at $20,000 when you were at $70,000 and ultimately the bottom is just a few percentage points lower. So ultimately, it's ultimately of little interest to say that we will wait for such or such a level or such or such confirmation to exit. Because generally, you see here, we still have the majority of analysts telling us, "It's too early to talk about a bear market." Well, it's too early, but we've still lost 35%. So if we really only wait for a major confirmation, to say, well no, if we break, I don't know, if we break on a weekly close below $7,400, if we have a weekly candle that brings us here, okay, with the close, I don't know, here for example, well, okay, we are at 63, so you waited for the bear market to sell and therefore you sold at -50%. Well, it's still a bit complicated to do that. What matters to us now is to know if, in real time, we tend to position ourselves as buyers or sellers. Obviously, a bottom especially, I've told you several times, especially after such a capitulation phase, a V-shaped recovery is very unlikely. Okay? So it's very likely that even if we start again a bit like we did at that time, okay? You see, we started again a bit high, well, we came back to rework that. Now, we've recovered below our previous support level, but it could very well be just like this. Okay? And then form a bottom over a longer term. Okay? Here, this is what we had for example in August 2024. Okay? Here, we had this phase of heavy capitulation. We came back quite high, then we came back to calmly rework the wick body and so on before starting again, then we went back down before reforming a structure. The structure took a long time before switching back to bullish. I think we are probably in the second half of this range. Okay? We've had the bulk of the decline. We've probably reached our bottom. I honestly think, despite this indicator that failed us, I still think that here we are at our bottom. Well, anyway, it doesn't change much if I tell you that, because it's not what will make me invest or not invest. It's not the fact that I'm at the bottom that tells me, "Okay, I'm going all in or not." Okay. Currently, I still have a chance of a reversal. We've had a good rebound. From the bottom, we're talking about almost 10%. We're at 8.7% rebound from the bottom. So we need to be vigilant. I think we still have some momentum to go higher. The bearish pressure is decreasing. You see that we had a brief passage in negative funding on, well, I'm on Bybit, but it's the same on Binance. I was looking a bit, I was checking the exchanges before launching the video. So here, we had a decrease in funding at that time, and you see that it's happening in a context where open interest is decreasing, reducing little by little. Okay, we go from our low point to this rebound. It's happening in a context where open interest is decreasing and funding is decreasing. This means that on this rebound, we have longs, okay? Those who are buyers in this market are taking profits, okay? They are leaving the market. This is what open interest tells us. Here, what funding tells us is that funding is decreasing. This means that in the remaining positions, there are more and more sellers. Okay? So here, there are many people who are taking advantage of this to say, "This is a good level to go down, to sell." So here, we will have quite a few shorters entering. So this is perfect because it fuels a potential continuation of this rebound, and even more so because this is happening in a context where we have a CVD that has purged well, you see, and is rebounding. Okay, so here we have a rebound on the spot CVD. So this means that on spot purchases, we have the beginning of demand. Obviously, when we look at the curve, okay, we see clearly that it's the beginning of demand. I've said it clearly. There isn't massive demand, there's the beginning of something, but it's rather positive to see demand increasing here with funding and open interest decreasing. This means that I have buyers supporting the price, causing it to rise. And therefore, potentially here, if we reach liquidation zones, then the market makers and the actors currently on the market are aligned. Okay. Those who are buying on the market, well, these might also be market makers, but globally, it means that people on the spot market are buyers. And this is precisely what this CVD indicator shows. So we have people on the markets who are rather buyers, and this is happening in a context where I have a lot of liquidity to recover above the price. So we saw it here. I'm going to put the indicator back properly. But here, you see, we have large zones. I'll try to zoom in a bit more. We'll take two weeks of trading, but you see that we have a lot, a lot of liquidity to recover above the price. Hop, this. There. So here, we especially see this large line. Here, at the level of 96, 97, 98, we really have a large zone, a large zone of interest. So here, obviously, I think we have momentum. This is what I was telling you. When we were here at the time, at the level of 93 and so on, I was indeed seeing the price rise to there. Well, it's forced to admit that we went much lower, and now we are rebuilding a rebound, there's a bit more momentum. Okay, there's a bit more strength in this rebound than in previous rebounds. This is especially visible at the structural level. You see that we are doing something interesting. After all, we still need to be vigilant because we are entering zones where, as I told you, we are in a compression zone, and compression zones can resolve either upwards or downwards. That's why I'm not putting any more money in right now, I'm remaining a spectator. The rebound still has a good probability of happening. So that's what we're going to play for now. It's the most probable scenario. So I always play the most probable scenario, while keeping in mind, of course, that it's more of a rebound to lighten up than a rebound that will bring us very strongly upwards. Okay? So here, we've taken advantage of this rebound to see a bit of green on our altcoins and so on. So it's rather positive. So we'll play that a bit. I think if, well, we reach $98, $96 here, roughly, recover here, hop, I shifted that, but recover here all the supports we've left, well, all the resistances we've left in these places. Okay, if we recover all that, well, obviously at that point, we'll probably have to lighten up, okay? In the first instance, lighten up just on the return to price, unless we have on-chain analysis signals that show us that this is a movement that is very, very followed, but for now, well, we'll have to be quite vigilant. If we look a bit at the ETF level, well, we have the beginning of something, millions on BlackRock. Well, you see, we had 60 million here, we had 220 million here. That didn't prevent us from having large outflows afterwards. Is this the beginning of something, or is it just a lull in a downward trend? We'll have to measure that in the coming days. At the Ethereum level, there have been two consecutive days of gains. It hadn't happened since November 10th, for almost 15 days. So that's not bad. Especially since we're talking about $92 and $46 million on BlackRock. So that's almost $150 million, well, $140 million in inflows into Ethereum ETFs on an asset that is much less capitalized than Bitcoin. So it's good to see Ethereum being bought by BlackRock clients, especially again in a downward trend. Because I remind you, I'm mainly looking at ETFs in trends, in counter-trends, okay? When there's a clear trend on an asset, well, it's forced to admit that the trend is bearish on daily. So here, I'm on daily. We have descending peaks and descending troughs. So this is the characteristic of a bearish trend. And to have a resumption of purchases on ETFs in a bearish trend, well, we can guess that these are not dumb money purchases. Okay? Here, people are rather in fear when it comes to retail investors, not very experienced and so on, they are rather in fear. So obviously, these are rather portfolios that will tend to fuel this phase of bearish rally. And to see a resumption here, it's rather interesting. Okay? This is rather interesting, just like here on Bitcoin. After all, you see that on Bitcoin it's a bit weak, $83 million on such a capitalized asset, especially since we're talking about a rebound period on Bitcoin. We have a nice rebound period. Hop, let's go back to that. Obviously on Ethereum too, but you see that the rebound is still relatively, therefore, weaker. Relatively in the sense of comparison, it's weaker on Ethereum because we had fallen enormously, enormously. I remind you that on Ethereum, from the peak, we are still at minus, we reached -46% while we reached -35% approximately on Bitcoin. Okay? So the somewhat positive news is that I will show it to you. Where is it? Yes, it's right here. It's the put and call ratio. So here, we are at the options level, binary options. I remind you that you have the possibility, not as a non-professional investor, but as a non-professional in Europe, because elsewhere in the world it's okay. You have the possibility to be exposed, investors have the possibility to be exposed to the options market. So on options, you can buy call options. So this is really gambling. Okay? Just like on football matches, you bet on the victory of one team or another, here you bet on the rise or fall. So it's not the same as buying Bitcoin and profiting from potential capital gains. What you will do is take the current exercise price, the target price of your option, and you will pay what is called a premium. Okay? And so you will pay a premium, this is your lottery ticket. Okay? And so if Bitcoin is above your target price, you will collect the difference between the actual price of Bitcoin and your target price. Let me explain, currently Bitcoin is at $87,700. If I buy a call option with a target price of $100,000 with an execution date, there is always an execution date. So if my execution date is December 31st, if on December 31st Bitcoin is at $110,000 and my target price is $100,000, I will collect the difference. I will collect the $10,000 for myself. So potentially this lottery ticket, well obviously depending on the trend, depending on the price and so on, it will be more or less expensive. You can imagine that buying a lottery ticket, a call option with a Bitcoin target price, I don't know, for example, at $150,000 on November 30th, well, you'll say, "Okay, in 4 days, I'm supposed to be at $150,000." That's very, very unlikely. So in fact, the premium you will have to pay might be 10 cents. Okay? And so in fact, you will pay 10 cents. If Bitcoin is at $175,000 in 4 days, well, you're happy, you made $25,000 when you paid 10 cents. So it was a very, very good deal, but it was extremely risky because currently, the probability of being there is very, very low. However, if you buy a put option, okay, a bearish option where you have a target price below the current exercise price, so we are still at $87,700. You buy a put option with a target price of, I don't know, $80,000, and it will surely cost you a bit. To be able to buy this option, you might have to pay $1,000. Okay? So if Bitcoin is at $80,000, well, you are at your target price, but you paid $1,000 premium, so you are losing. However, if Bitcoin is at $79,000, you collect the difference of $1,000, you reimburse your $1,000 premium, and therefore you are at break-even. You haven't won, you haven't lost. And if we are below $79,000, then you win. Okay? So that's why people buy puts. This is what makes this curve increase when they think the price will fall. If I think here that we are in a zone of uncertainty, probably Trump will announce horrible things or I don't know what, there are many negative news that will arrive. I suspect the Fed's speech will be very hawkish and so on, that the market won't like it. In short, I have many things that indicate that we will go down. What do I do? I buy puts. So I tell myself, I'll buy some. If the market goes up, great. If it means my Bitcoins that I bought will continue to gain value, great. If the market goes down, I can exercise my put options and earn the price difference. So I'll take an exercise, an exercise price a bit below. So I told you, $82,000 for example, I tell myself, okay, $82,000. If we break a bit the support level we had, we had just here, hop, let's take it again. We had our support level, well, our previous, our previous wick was there at $80,600. I tell myself, okay, I'll take an exercise price at $82,000. So if I'm below, I'll start making money, minus the premium I would have paid. And so if there's a big crash, ultimately I make money through my options and therefore it will cover my losses on the Bitcoins I actually own. So that's why, this is a mechanism that large, large portfolios use a lot. Honestly, I don't recommend it for portfolios of, let's say, less than $10 million. Honestly, I don't think it makes much sense. Many people overcomplicate things like this. Well, for the majority of people, it's enough to simply sell a part of their Bitcoin when they want to reduce their exposure. They sell a part of their Bitcoin, and that's enough. Okay? This is mainly for people who have very large portfolios, sometimes several billion, who don't want to buy or sell, precisely to avoid leaving traces on the markets from an on-chain perspective, or even because they don't want to move the price because you can imagine that liquidating, I don't know, 20 or 30,000 Bitcoin, well, that can be very complicated, it can be very long, okay? Because you have to find buyers on the other side. So in fact, you will simply buy options because at least you don't have to do anything with your portfolio. It costs you money because if you're wrong, well, you've paid your premiums for nothing. But in quotes, it's a good way to protect yourself. So there are many portfolios and large portfolios that protect themselves through these binary options. So I've given you the overview, and here you see that we have a large decrease. And so this means that, you know, when a ratio decreases, it means that the denominator, the denominator increases, okay? And here, in this case, the volume of calls increased. This means that more and more people on options think it will go up. And you see that generally it's a relatively good sign when we have large bullish phases where we protect ourselves from risk. Well, here you see that it was just before Donald Trump's Liberation Day. Before April 2nd, there were many people who suspected that our friend Trump would do anything on the markets. And so what did they do? They bought put options, saying if he breaks everything and everything goes down, then what will we do? We will have a price decrease, and therefore we will have our put options. And conversely, when we are reassured, well, we will have call options that increase, and therefore the risk is canceled. So we reduce our options. So at worst, we even buy call options saying, "That's it, it's going to go up." So to summarize my point, seeing a decrease in this orange curve means that people are reducing their exposure. This means that the risk of a significant drop is probably ruled out, and also that the probability of a significant rise is being played by investors. You see that when we had drastic drops, well, these are moments when we had small dips. For example, here, we had a deeper dip in price, and then we had a rebound. Here, we had a significant drop, and we had a rebound. Here, it was precisely, well, a moment when, well, we had a drop, okay? It wasn't as significant as what we had here, but you see since this period, since October 22nd, we've had a significant drop that is comparable to what we could have had here. Or what we could have had here as well. Hop! We really, we really went down here as well. We really went down to here. Well, you see that it didn't prevent us from having, following the rebound, a DIP from the
even of the same amplitude as the previous one, in this case in January 25, and then a rebound. Okay. So, here there is no real fear, and we are rather even in a rather bullish environment for Bitcoin. Okay. Which, uh, makes the probability of a rebound more and more likely, which makes the fact that we could potentially have a rebound more probable. Uh, also here, I have Eric Balchounas, who is a Wall Street analyst, who is really more oriented towards basic traditional finance and who is also very present on everything related to ETFs, ETF tracking, etc. So he's a bit of a reference regarding, well, he's the one who provided a lot of information precisely on the potential acceptance rates of ETFs, etc. So, so there you go, an account to follow on X if you don't already follow him. IBIT short interest has therefore strongly reduced. Okay? So that means that, well, what you see here in orange is the short rate on HBIT ETFs, and you see that, well, they weren't very high to begin with. Basically, what it tells us is that it wasn't very high, but that it's still decreasing. Okay? So that's positive. It means that at that moment, traditional finance estimates that a rebound is highly probable and that a potential drop is precisely less and less probable in traditional finance. On the news side, also a bit bullish, we have Trump and Xi Jinping who are starting to agree a bit on the fact of having a visit soon in Beijing by President Trump. We also have the probability, therefore, of having slightly more favorable deals for China, notably with Nvidia, which could, uh, would be authorized to sell latest generation chips to China, which is currently not the case. So in terms of, well, still protectionism for artificial intelligence. So to see a deal like that happen between the two giants, well, it's hyper bullish. It's once again a lever and a lock that was revolving around the market that is starting to be removed. So it's far from over. Trump has accustomed us to reversals of situation. So anyway, you should never take that for granted. But it's still rather positive to see that. News also bullish. We have the 10 maturities to follow, the 10 main maturities on IBIT, which are all calls. Okay. So that's very, very positive. It means that, basically, on Black Rock ETFs, so the famous ticker Highbit, on Black Rock Bitcoin ETFs, all maturities are bullish. We estimate that we will be higher than current prices on all maturities. Okay? Whether it's January 26, November 25, November 25 again, December 19, November 28. Anyway, we have all the maturities indicating that we are positive. So that's rather very good precisely because it supports the price to see that, well, we probably have large portfolios that are playing on the options markets. You know that globally, options markets are no longer really intended for large investors. The individual investor generally doesn't do much options. So to see that is rather positive. Once again, it makes the rebound all the more probable. We also have, so here, on Alfractal, we have precisely the behavior of whales versus retail. So that's on-chain analysis. So obviously, so I looked at it, but it's not biased by precisely this change in behavior on the cohorts. Okay, because precisely, well, it's this indicator, well, and it filters precisely these different cohorts, and notably the problem we had with Coinbase. So you see that here the trend we've had for a few days. Okay? So well before precisely this famous Coinbase migration, you see that this increase is parabolic and it's intensifying. Okay? So that's very positive. It's a behavior somewhat similar to what we could have had precisely at this low point here. So we had a rebound then a second, slightly deeper low. This was very much linked precisely to Donald Trump's announcements on Liberation Day. But you see that here we have whales driving the market rather than retail. So that's very positive. Once again, it's very positive. It means that the price is being bought back, that it's supporting the price precisely. So, so I really like seeing this news. We talked about it regarding liquidations. Regarding whales here. Well, on the accumulation heatmap, we had a large buying zone at that time. Well, it's continuing, we are still on relatively hot colors. So that means that the balance of whale portfolios is currently higher than it was 7 days ago. But you see that it's stabilizing here. So there aren't many purchases being made. The majority of purchases were made precisely at the major support level. It's logical. You buy at support, you sell at resistance. So whales, that's what they played. But here, you still have some who continue to add cartridges. It's not violent yet, but it's happening. Here also regarding the whale SOPR. So here too, it's rather positive to see this behavior. We have a rebound on this famous inflection zone. So seeing it increase too much could be a problem. However, on a rebound, seeing it increase is, after all, quite positive because I remind you that when we really crossed this line, this inflection point downwards, you see that here we were, we stayed for a very long time around this famous pivot point of 1 on the whale SOP. And when we really tipped below, well, that was precisely the bear market. You see that since this bull market, we have systematically bounced off it. We had a small dip below, but you see that each time we bounce off it, and so on. So I quite like seeing this indicator showing that, well, there is still strength, there are still whales present, who are interested in current prices. So that's rather positive. Also an indicator I wanted to show you is here regarding the spot average order size. Okay? So here, we are on the average order size for orders placed on the spot markets. So here, you see that we have just entered a new period where precisely retail investors are starting to take over again. So, we'll have to see what happens. Okay? The last time this happened was here. So, retail investors started to show up here during the range phase. Well, you see that this generally translates into accumulation phases, okay? Or rather, into range phases, okay, consolidation phases. Here, we had precisely the beginning of the trending phase and then the end of the trending phase with precisely a rebound and so on at that time. So we consolidated a bit around this zone before the downward continuation. Here, we had precisely in 2018 a consolidation phase as well. So, so here it's the same in 2000, well, in 2025 during the tariff panic, we formed a consolidation at that time when we had precisely retail investors arriving. So since retail investors are going to start to be a bit divided between those who think we're going to have a rebound and it's going to go up, and those who are still very bearish and think that every rebound is just an opportunity to sell and short the market. So we'll have to see what happens. In any case, we are changing a bit of period. We were in a period that was mainly driven by large whales. And so now, we'll have to see what retail investors do. In any case, when retail investors show up, well, generally, they are wrong, and therefore it leads to quite tricky periods where we manage to make very bullish, very bearish, very bullish, very bearish movements, and so on, to try to liquidate as many traders as possible and to panic as many people as possible. So, so we'll look a bit at what's happening. In any case, it should be noted that we are precisely entering a somewhat retail-friendly period. So, regarding other indicators, unfortunately, we are limited by the fact that Coinbase made its migration and therefore distorts many indicators. So I won't be able to show you too much at this level. The interesting news, so we talked about it, but it's regarding Jerome Powell and the probability of an interest rate cut. We are currently at 82.9% probability of an interest rate cut at the meeting that will take place in 15 days, on December 10, 2025, precisely. So it's good to see that. The market is expecting an interest rate cut. This is very linked to the fact that inflation is starting to retrace a bit, to recede a bit. So that's also interesting, and that the American economy is not that strong, you see that the previous levels on retail sales, producer prices, etc., well, all of that, all the PPIs, etc., are quite low. So, well, it's proof that the American economy, which was resisting quite well, still needs a little help. That, well, it's not panic, it's not lower than what we expected, but it's still low, so we will probably have to help the economy a bit, and that's why Jerome Powell would be tempted to cut rates and why we had such a significant reversal. I remind you that this is data we haven't had since mid-September, approximately. So it had been almost, well, almost 3 months, well, 2 and a half months since we had precisely information on all this data. So the uncertainty was very linked to that, because well, when you advance month by month and you have unemployment figures week after week, well, it's easier to see the state of the economy and to predict good figures. So, here we have many other indicators that show that analysts were not really wrong. So, so that's rather interesting. But well, the market itself awaits the figures and the official figures. So to see that, it's still quite healthy. Okay. Uh, so, on the macroeconomic level, we are rather well oriented. On the Fear and Greed index, we are at 15%. So there is still really an environment of fear. I see this in all the videos I post at the moment, all the content I can produce. In the end, each time, I have a lot of people who are very, very bearish and who fall into a rather classic trap, okay? That of wanting to buy back lower, always wanting to buy back lower. Now, I have no problem with buying back lower when we are in a risky trend, when we are on a rebound, when we have signals that invite caution. That's what we did in the past. I did it when we were at that point, I did it here, I did it here, I did it here before summer, well, during summer. Well, obviously, this is something that requires caution at that time and potentially selling to buy back lower. However, when we enter into marked downward trends for several weeks, the risk is to keep postponing. Okay? In the comments, when we were at $100,000, many people said, "Yes, I'll buy back at 98, okay, at 98 at this support level." Okay, and then when we were there, people didn't buy back and said, "Well, no, I won't buy back at 98, I'll buy back here at the major support zone at 92 or 93." Finally, they don't buy back. And then here the major support level at 86. Then the support level here at 83,000, 84,000 dollars, which is finally a good level at which we are rebounding. But no, finally people are waiting here for the major support level at 74. Okay? And if we reach 74, they will say, "Well, no, I'll buy back here at 68." Anyway, I won't tell you the whole story on all the support levels, but at some point, you have to enter. Okay? And that's precisely why we smooth out entries and buy progressively, because obviously we cannot buy the absolute bottom, the long-term bottom. It's impossible. And those who think they will be able to, when we are in this kind of phase, for example, when we are at $15,000, that it's clear, that it's the bottom of the cycle, no, not at all. Those who were there, and well, I was there, but some of you were there too. At that time, remember, at that time, everyone, everyone, everyone was talking about $10,000 to $12,000. Okay? They were talking about that zone, okay? Between $10,000 and $12,000, that was the targeted zone, and everyone was talking to us about that zone. Exactly like now everyone is talking to us about the $74,000 zone. Exactly like those who were there during the crash in April, everyone was talking to us about 72, which corresponded to our previous H range support. Okay? We were just above it, we didn't reach it. Once again, I've already told you, and indeed, it's something that is still a thesis for me, is that when a level starts to be too approached, when too many people start to say, "This is the level I'm watching, I'll buy at this level, etc." Well, it's the real support level, it's the support to hold, etc. There are two scenarios. Okay? And it's always the same, either we reach it, or we don't reach this support level. So, let's say everyone is talking about $74,000, okay, which is a major support level. Either we will make a second leg, okay, come to recover the liquidity below this low, okay, stop at 78 and go back up and form a bottom somewhat like this, okay? Or we will purge much lower, okay? As we did at 98. You see that at 98, well, those who were waiting for this level to reposition themselves, well, I'm sorry, but then they bought back at a time when they were in a full downward trend. Now, you'll tell me, "Yes, but you're cute, but then you bought at that time." Indeed, I bought on structure with a moment when we had an upward structure, we had indicators like the RSI, all the other on-chain indicators, etc., that told us it was interesting to reposition. I repositioned myself, obviously, but I find it inconsistent to reposition oneself at a given level when all other indications tell us not to reposition here. Whether it's technical analysis, okay, from a purely graphical point of view, well, it's not the time to reposition. From an on-chain point of view, it wasn't the time to position. And from an order flow point of view, neither. So, you need to explain to me precisely what justifies repositioning here alone. Okay? Uh, so, so, so, obviously here, I prefer people who reposition now, okay? After precisely a purge phase, a rebound, a consolidation, and so on. I find it more logical to reposition here than solely at a given level. Okay? At the level, I don't know, of 74,000, etc. So, after that, there are those who buy small parts of falling knives, etc. And I can understand that, because those who bought during the capitulation phase on October 10, those who bought on this wick, and notably on altcoins, when you have -50%, -60%, -70% on altcoins, you can say, "I'll buy back a small part of my capital, I'll play the bearish excess." So, that's possible. Okay, but you still need moments where we have indicators pointing to the famous bearish excesses, very negative funding, periods where precisely all the RSIs are extremely oversold on relatively short timeframes. Okay, on 1 hour, 30 minutes, 2 hours, etc. So, so that's my point on this subject. We'll also talk a bit about, so, I wanted to, so, talk about this regarding funding rates on altcoins in fear phases. Okay, despite the rebound we've had, there's no funding, there's no excitement on altcoins, and that's very healthy. Okay? What I want is especially a rebound, okay? Like we have currently, which is not driven by significant bullish sentiment. So, on rebounds, I always look at the same thing. I look at order flow analysis. That's important to me. To see small, rapid increases like this. If it's to have, like this, an increase and then a decrease, that's fine with me. But what I don't want is a sustained increase in funding with an increase in open interest. I don't want to see that. That means I'm under resistance and a bullish sentiment is setting in. That's not a good sign. Okay. I also don't want to see, regarding price structure, I don't want to see behavior like this. This is behavior that could indicate to me that it's a time to sell. Here, I have my previous resistance level. Okay, I don't want to see behavior like this. Hop, hop. Okay, just a wick or two candles in 1 hour, three candles in 1 hour, etc., we go to seek liquidity and we go back down deeply and we go to seek a pullback like this. For me, that's very, very negative. And in that case, I would exit at that point, at these levels. I would exit because the probability of a drop is too high. What I want, a healthier behavior, is potentially when we are here, hop, precisely to reclaim this level as a support level. Okay. And to do something like this. But but we will need to find strength at one point or another. If we want to go truly higher, we will need really powerful candles. Okay, we will need this. And that will tell us, "Okay, there is real demand, there are buyers, etc." Here, regarding price structure, this is what I will look at. Regarding the Fear and Greed index, it's an indicator I also look at at that time in range phases. You see here, for example, we had a lot of panic, and on slight rebounds, we quickly went back up to 45, 46, etc., on the Fear and Greed index. Okay? And so at that time, you see that we had a rapid return of euphoria, and precisely, it was under resistance. That's a problem for me. Here you see that it happened more progressively. We stayed at 30-35 for a long time, while precisely we didn't have a low and we were at a time when we were post-breakout. And at that time, precisely, we had a Fear and Greed index that remained measured, that remained controlled, and then we had our famous breakout, and there it is, the return of euphoria. I don't mind having a return of euphoria, but I want it to be after real rebounds. You see that here we went from 76 to 93,000 dollars. Well, it doesn't surprise me that we have a return of euphoria at that time, but what I don't want is that on the slightest rebound or the slightest consolidation, we have a return of euphoria on the Fear and Greed index. Okay? You see that here, hop, as soon as we went up, hop, we went back to seek 70-75, etc., panic again. Here, we consolidated, etc., it was rather good. We stayed at 25-30, we were able to make another rebound, and then we were precisely back at, well, at our imbalance zone, so under resistance, and we arrive here in a few days. You see, if I zoom in here, we go from 39 to 34, and then 56-54. Okay? So in a few days of consolidation here, we had a return of euphoria right under resistance. Well, that translated into a drop, etc. And so here you see that at that time, hop, we were at 32.50, we made a low of 39, and then precisely on the rise, it was much more progressive afterwards. Okay, on the rise, it's logical to have an increase in the Fear and Greed index, but what we want is precisely to have a progressive increase. So, this is what I will be looking at. As long as we have a rebound that occurs within a Fear and Greed index that is relatively bearish, well, that increases the probability of a bullish continuation. Okay, so, that's what I'll be looking at. Always the same, therefore. Order flow, price structure, liquidations. When we reach major liquidation zones, obviously, well, I adapt my portfolio and I will probably take profits each time we reach liquidation zones. Here, that's what you see. That's why I had doubts about the continuation of a bullish movement and why I'm watching it closely, because here we have recovered a large liquidity zone and we are consolidating on it. Okay? Generally, that's not a very good sign. When we arrive and recover a large liquidity zone, we want to be able to go back up, and this wall, once it's broken, we are supposed to have a clear path to go higher. And so, to see that, well, we are stagnating, it means that the people who motivated this bullish movement, well, they took their profits, they are happy, they reached the level they wanted to reach, so they are exiting the market a bit, and that's not a very good sign. Okay? So, we will obviously have to be vigilant about this, and I will keep you informed of what I do. But, well, it increases the probability of having a slight bearish recovery. Okay. And therefore, to be able to continue a bit lower. So, after that, it doesn't necessarily mean we will go much lower, but it can mean, well, doing something like this. So, obviously, a movement like this of 5-6% on Bitcoin can mean 10-12% on altcoins. So it's always better if we manage to protect ourselves from it. That's why I'm watching it closely. So, I'll stop there for this brief. A short hour of video for you. I hope you enjoyed the content. We'll stay in touch. Regarding altcoins, there's not much to say. They are all in the same configuration. We have nice rebounds, with Hedera leading the way a bit among the cryptos that are making nice rebounds. SPX also, which did a great thing. So, obviously, my portfolio is very exposed to this crypto. I told you. I really appreciate this crypto. Well, obviously, we are now reaching levels, well, once again, that served as support for a while and that we broke downwards. So they become resistances. So we need to be cautious. That's what I'm telling you. Many cryptos are reaching somewhat dangerous zones, resistance zones, compression zones, consolidation zones, etc. So, we'll see how the resolution plays out. That's why I remain exposed for the moment because I estimate that we still have the probability of resolving this compression zone upwards, but I remain very, very vigilant. There you go. Well, listen, for the moment, we are enjoying the upward movement, which is very good, and we are very vigilant. Thank you. Have a good day.