Transcription
Day 1515 of the war. Ukrainian UAVs hit five oil facilities at once in one night, from Sevastopol to the Samara and Leningrad regions. Refineries, oil depots, and ports are burning. Before that, drones destroyed a huge warehouse of Russian drone manufacturers from Rubicon near Mariupol. This is far from a complete list of recent successes of Ukrainian deep strikes and middle strikes. Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz for the period of Israel's ceasefire with Lebanon. Trump, in response, did not lift his blockade of Iranian oil. He is waiting for Iran to hand over Uranium. Meanwhile, the US, for some reason, has again temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil on tankers in the ocean. This is despite the fact that just the other day, the US Treasury Department stated that they would not extend the exemption from sanctions. But the main thing for us is that oil is getting cheaper, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to export it due to strikes on ports. Russia is planning an offensive, either in Donbas, or from Belarus, or directly at Europe. Where the forces for this will come from, one can only guess. Even the reserves that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, they want to allocate for Donbas, will not be enough to compensate for the reduction in the number of the Russian grouping. Since December, Telegram has suddenly been unblocked in Russia. True, only on Android and only for premium accounts. The authorities have nothing to do with it. There are no signs of leniency from their side. Apparently, the fool has finally moved to digital resistance, not in words, but in deeds. We are watching with interest the new exciting round of confrontation between Telegram and the SRK. About this and much more in today's fresh summary, which you can support with your like, comment, and subscription to the channel. All these actions help promote the video. Your subscriptions are especially important for YouTube algorithms. So don't forget to subscribe to the channel. Well, you can support the channel financially on Patreon, the link to which is in the description. And by purchasing NVPN, a tool for bypassing blocks, which allows you to decide for yourself what to watch, listen to, and read. YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram, WhatsApp, Viber. All this will be available to you without Telegram Premium, and regardless of which platform you are on. Therefore, be sure to buy a VPN. You can buy mine, or any other. The main thing is that you have a VPN. But if you want a high-quality, reliable VPN that will provide access to all blocked resources, NVPN, the link is in the description. Well, we are moving on to what happened over the past day. Iran officially announced that it has opened unimpeded passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for 10 days, while the ceasefire regime in Lebanon is in effect. In accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon, passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remaining period of the ceasefire along a coordinated route announced by the ports and the maritime organization of Iran, stated the country's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Trump wrote 10 messages on Truth in an hour and a half on the topic of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, reports Astra. "Iran has agreed never to close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the whole world," Trump announced on his pocket social network. He also called today a great and brilliant day for the whole world. Trump thanked Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE for their help. According to the American leader, Iran, with the help of the US, has neutralized or is neutralizing all sea mines. Trump emphasized twice that this deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz is in no way related to Lebanon. In addition, Trump called the US allies "paper tigers." "Now that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has been resolved, I was called by NATO and asked if we needed help. I told them to stay away, unless they just want to load their ships with oil. They turned out to be useless when help was needed, paper tigers," Trump wrote. I hadn't even enjoyed the other news for a full day. As it turned out this morning, the US has again temporarily canceled sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum products just a few days after US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson directly stated that he did not plan to do so. I would raid the mini-bar myself. But the exemption from sanctions applies to oil and petroleum products shipped on tankers before April 17 and will be valid until May 16. A spoonful of honey in a barrel of tar is that the price of oil cheerfully plummeted even before the news of the new suspension of sanctions, and now it should apparently fall even lower, which is still higher than the price set in the Russian budget for 2026, but clearly lower than Putin's expectations, for which Russia began to increase defense spending. "There is another nuance," writes the author of the channel Bytili. Trump confirmed the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, but added that the blockade of the strait for Iran remains in effect. "The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the maritime blockade against Iran remains in effect until our deal with Iran is fulfilled 100%. This process should happen very quickly, as most points have already been agreed upon." That is, all vessels can pass, except those associated with Iran or formally not associated, but generally all that go to Iranian ports. It is unclear until Iran concludes a deal, which in turn implies Iran's renunciation of its nuclear program and the transfer of Uranium. It will be a joke, of course, if Iran now says, "Oh, so then we'll close it again too." In fact, before I sat down to record the summary, Iran said something similar. "Iran will again block the Strait of Hormuz if the US continues the maritime blockade of the country," officially confirmed Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghai. "I confirm, if the opposing side again intends to violate its obligations, and judging by everything, it has exactly such intentions, then, of course, the Islamic Republic of Iran will take corresponding measures in response. If what they call a maritime blockade continues, be sure that the Islamic Republic of Iran will definitely take action in response," Baghai said. In addition, Trump stated that the US will take away all nuclear dust left after the bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities by American B2s. And he also banned Israel from bombing Lebanon. "The US will receive all the nuclear dust created by our beautiful B2 bombers. The US will work separately with Lebanon on a deal with Hezbollah properly. Israel will no longer bomb Lebanon. The US forbids them to do so. Enough is enough." I understand, comments the author of the channel Bytili. By nuclear dust, he means enriched uranium, which is in Iranian underground storage facilities and which the US tried to destroy, but could not do it completely. Well, I doubt it for now, but if he can somehow push Iran to export enriched uranium, then it will be his victory. "A serious victory for Israel, of course," writes Bytili, and I agree with him. "On my part, I will once again note Trump's unique skill of losing friends and alienating people for no reason. I understand that he wants Israel to stop striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, because that is exactly what Iran made a condition for unblocking the strait. But all this can be conveyed to Jerusalem through normal diplomatic channels, not through social networks, because this puts Netanyahu in an awkward position, as it now looks within Israel that the prime minister is giving in to the US by ceasing strikes on Hezbollah. Well, in reality, of course, it is, but in diplomacy there is such a concept as saving face. And it is precisely this that Trump did not allow Netanyahu to do, who will surely remember it. In general, the situation with Iran, well, let's say, is better than expected in the last week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. We can talk about it being resolved. And again, the only aspect in which we are interested in this situation is whether ships will sail through the Strait of Hormuz, whether the US will bomb Iran, whether Iran will bomb, and everything else is of secondary importance from our perspective, those who follow the war in Ukraine, who support Ukraine. Because, if ships pass through the strait normally, it means that the price of oil will fall, and this means that nothing will save the Russian budget. Therefore, we are looking, well, our optics are directed here. When ships start moving normally, then we can talk about the fact that the situation has really been resolved. For now, there are different statements. Trump says he is continuing his blockade. Iran responds that it will not let ships associated with the US and Israel pass. What he means by this is not very clear. In general, it is actually difficult to say that all this has completely ended. But there is more certainty for you and me, as always, that Ukrainian defenders need help and support to stop the Russian fascist occupation army. We completed a very large fundraiser recently. Thank you to everyone who participated, and let's move on to the next one. A fundraiser for a car and electronic warfare equipment for Ukrainian soldiers. Here is their appeal to you. "Servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine appeal to Mykhailo Naky and his subscribers. We ask you to join the fundraising for a car, a trailer, and REB. Your support is very important to us. We are holding the defense of Ukraine together. We sincerely thank you. Glory to Ukraine! >> Glory to the heroes! Again, this is a fundraiser literally for saving lives. Thank you to everyone who participates. Here is a QR code to Monobank in the description. Monobank, PayPal, USDT 20, and Bitcoin. Let's help Ukrainian defenders defend their country, save the lives of their compatriots, and not die themselves. All links are in the description. And we move on. A Washington Post columnist called Vladimir Putin's situation hopeless, and this is pushing the Kremlin towards war with Europe, in his opinion. The moment has come again. Morning in the verse, evening in the newspaper. Only I recorded my series of videos about Putin's attack on the Baltic countries back last year. The material thoroughly retells the publication of the agency. "The Russian president finds himself in a hopeless situation. This makes him even more dangerous," writes Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. This whole framework of Westerners, that we shouldn't let Putin get too bad, otherwise he might do something. This is a stupid framework, it should be abandoned. Well, now let's first familiarize ourselves with the content. "Vladimir Putin may feel cornered due to the stalemate in the war in Ukraine, the inability to help Iran, and Viktor Orbán's departure from the post of Prime Minister of Hungary," writes the analyst. In such a situation, the Russian president may start thinking about the next war against European countries, believes the journalist, whose columns have repeatedly been at the center of attention during discussions of Washington's peace plan for Ukraine. "The situation Putin finds himself in may become even worse in the future," Ignatius believes. The Russian economy, despite a short-term rise in oil prices, is in a deplorable state. European countries are getting stronger. NATO troops are deployed from the Arctic to the Black Sea, and the war in Ukraine is dragging on with almost no chance of a decisive victory. If you were Putin, feeling so cornered, you might start thinking about the next war against Europe, even while continuing to fight in Ukraine," writes Ignatius. In his opinion, in this situation, Putin may start considering whether the time has come for an attack before European countries fully rearm. Ukraine has not developed new weapons, and Donald Trump, who is in conflict with NATO, has not left his post. Ignatius quotes a report by Eugene Rumer, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and former US intelligence officer, which states that Russia may emerge from the war in Ukraine less protected, more embittered, and more dangerous to Europe. "I proceed from the deep conviction that Europe is the most important theater of military operations for Russia. It is on it that Putin's efforts will be focused," Rumer said in an interview with Ignatius. "Putin is a risk-taker, as his invasion of Ukraine has shown. What if he decides that the window of opportunity to challenge NATO and impose a new order is closing?" Ignatius asks, adding, "What will Trump do if Putin attacks some European country? For me, this is the most terrifying question," writes Ignatius. "Trump spends so much time criticizing NATO that Europeans are already doubting the reliability of American security guarantees." Listen, this is, well, there's a term called "vestoids." Anyway, this is a completely wrong perception of Vladimir Putin. Putin is not a risk-taker at all. Putin hates to take risks. Putin never takes risks in his mind. He invaded Ukraine because he was sure, and he was informed, that there would be no resistance there, that everything would pass quickly. From Putin's point of view, there was no risk at all. It's not a matter of his own assessment, it's a matter of poor information. We've talked about this many times. Therefore, there is a threat that Putin may invade the Baltic countries. But no. The logic presented by the authors completely incorrectly describes the decision-making mechanism in the Kremlin over the last 25 years. Putin has never taken risks, never. Throughout his career, in all his 25 years in power, Putin has never taken risky steps. That is, he took objectively risky steps, but at that moment he did not think they were risky. And this is a completely different story. This week, the agency reminds, Russia intensified pressure on Europe after the Russian Ministry of Defense published a list of addresses of European enterprises where, according to the military department, drones for Ukraine are being assembled. Well, everyone writes all the time that they are European, but there are two companies from Turkey, two addresses in Turkey. For some reason, everyone ignores this. I don't know why. The Ministry of Defense warned of unpredictable consequences of using drones produced in Europe for attacks on Russia. Europe is seriously considering the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO countries. In February last year, the Danish Security and Intelligence Service published a report stating that Russia is preparing for a potential confrontation with the alliance and will be able to pose a direct military threat to NATO countries approximately 5 years after the end of the war in Ukraine. Similar statements were made by intelligence agencies and politicians from other countries in Europe. In September, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned of Russia and China's preparations for a long-term confrontation. Well, in general, please watch my videos in this series about a potential invasion. I there, from a rational point of view, discuss what motives, what physical capabilities Vladimir Putin has for such attacks. And I said that his time is running out, that the window is closing, and it is indeed almost closed. Can Putin attack now? Yes, but it would be a very risky step that would surely lead to his failure. I don't think he would ever go for it. But, but thanks to the "vestoids" that they at least stopped saying that a cornered Putin would start firing nukes, right? That was the main thing for the first 2 years of the war. Every American newspaper wrote about it, every newspaper talked about it, that Putin is about to, about to, about to, look at this humiliation for Putin, now bang - and so on, and so on. Now they've moved on to saying that he'll bang not with a nuke, but will start an attack on the Baltic countries. Well, at least that. And thank God for that. Please stop the hysteria, start analyzing what is happening in Russia normally. Find specialists who understand this, and stop fantasizing about all sorts of nonsense. Thank you. Let's return to the oil news. Oil exports from Russia by sea have fallen to their lowest levels in two years following Ukrainian attacks on port infrastructure, Insider reports. So the Ukrainian plan to at least limit additional revenues of the Russian budget from rising prices is apparently working. At the same time, by the end of the month, sea oil exports may fall to a level not seen since 2023. This is reported by Kommersant, citing data from the Center for Price Indices. According to CPI, for the week of April 6-12, sea oil exports decreased by 16.1% to 291,000 tons. Volumes have been falling for the second week in a row amid infrastructure damage after drone strikes on the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Tuapse in late March and early April. In particular, fires and damage to fuel tanks were reported. The port of Novorossiysk was hit hardest, with loadings falling by 73.2% to 19,000 tons. At the same time, the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga formally maintained their loading volumes at the previous week's level. However, in early April, their actual shutdown was reported. For at least two weeks, these ports could not fully receive and load oil, and the number of shipments decreased from dozens of vessels per week to isolated cases. Tonight and morning have apparently been the blackest for the Russian oil industry. I will list them in one line, and the details will probably be tomorrow. In Novokuibyshevsk, the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery caught fire as a result of an attack. In Syzran, Samara region, a tank farm of the Syzran refinery caught fire as a result of an attack. Successful destruction of an oil depot in Sevastopol on the night of April 18. A fire broke out in the area of the Baltic port of Vysotsk on Saturday as a result of a drone attack, the governor of the Leningrad region reported. After an attack by strike UAVs in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, an oil hub, one of the largest oil transshipment points in southern Russia, is burning. I think this is not the last such day for the Russian oil industry. Here's what is known about previous Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian special operations forces attacked the Rubicon center base in the village of Mangush in the occupied part of Donetsk region, reports. The Ukrainian channel XL Plus published a video of the fire at the base after the attack in cyberboroshno. Based on these two videos, three warehouses with a total area of 3,000 square meters were hit. Judging by satellite images, the base is active. Russian military trucks and heavy transporters have been there since at least June 6 last year. And now Ukraine has the means to reach it. The drone unit Lazarsgroup of the National Guard of Ukraine reported that their pilots successfully hit a cluster of MLRS BM-30 Smerch in the occupied territory of Luhansk region, resulting in the destruction of one launcher and a transport-loading vehicle. A complex of automated fire control systems "Slepok 1" or "Slepok 1". And another launcher was damaged. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced the destruction of two Russian radar stations near Lyd Nebo M in the Belgorod and Rostov regions. Respectively, as the Ukrainian military department clarifies, the radars were hit on April 15 and 16, but confirmation of the hits was only possible now. In addition, operators of the first separate center of drone systems hit a Russian anti-aircraft missile and gun system Pantsir-S1 in occupied Mariupol. This was reported by the commander of SB Robert Brovdi on social networks, and a video of combat operations was published, reports the publication Militarniy. The strike on an element of Russian air defense in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region was carried out on the night of April 17. The published video shows how a Ukrainian middle strike drone FP2 from FireP attacks a Russian air defense system in position from the side. After that, another drone flies over the Pantsir-S1 position to confirm the effectiveness of the hit. However, the image quality does not allow to accurately determine whether it was a real complex or its mock-up, the use of which the Russians have increased to protect their air defense from Ukrainian drones, Militarniy notes. The Skhemy project published satellite images showing the consequences of strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine drone systems on Russian facilities in occupied Crimea on the night of April 16. In particular, damage was recorded at two oil depots: in the village of Oktyabrskaya and in the village of Gluboky Yar. According to the images, at least one tank was damaged in Oktyabrskoye, and at the oil depot near Gluboky Yar, at least five tanks of various sizes were destroyed and damaged. In Tuapse, they continue to extinguish the fire after the attack by Ukrainian drones on the Rosneft refinery. 177 people and 56 units of equipment are involved in extinguishing the fire that occurred as a result of a UAV attack on the night of April, reports the operational headquarters of the Krasnodar Krai. Local residents in social networks report the appearance of a film on the surface of the water in the coastal zone, reports Astro. People assume that the stain was formed due to a mixture of water with combustion products, clarifies Rus News. As Insider previously established, using the NASA Worldview service, the smoke plume stretched for about 250 km over the Black Sea. According to Copernicus images, the smoke plume has stretched even further, about 375 km. In one of the videos published today, it is visible that the sky over Tuapse is covered with dark gray smoke. In general, Ukrainian strikes are incredibly large-scale, incredibly effective. And we see how the Russian oil industry was not destroyed last night, of course, but it received very serious blows, as it has throughout this week. Yesterday, April 17, one person was killed and two were injured as a result of a Russian attack in the Dnipropetrovsk region, reported Vova. Astra reports. A seventy-two-year-old man, another man, and a woman were injured as a result of a Russian drone strike on a car in the Mirivska community of Nikopol district. The car burned down, reported the head of the Dnipropetrovsk OVA, Oleksandr Hanza. The Ministry of National Defense of Romania announced that during an attack on the territory of Ukraine on the night of April 17, one of the Russian drones violated Romania's airspace, reports Insider. The drone was lost radar-wise 16 km southeast of the border village of Kilivareki in Tulcea county. Romanian servicemen planned to begin a search operation in this area this morning. The Ministry of Defense condemned Russia's actions, which threaten regional security and constitute a serious violation of international law. According to the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, as a result of attacks on energy infrastructure facilities, consumers in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions were left without electricity. On the night of April 17, critical infrastructure facilities were attacked in Chernihiv, wrote the head of the city military administration, Dmytro Bryzhinsky. Footage of the night attack on the city appeared online. Fires broke out at the impact sites. Later, the city hall reported that after the attack, the Chernihiv TPP temporarily suspended its operation. Consumers were left without hot water. The exact restoration times are being determined, as the scale of damage requires detailed technical assessment, according to the message. In Chernihiv, Chernihivoblenergo stated that 60,000 households were left without electricity. As a result of air strikes on Zaporizhzhia on the evening of April 16, one person was killed and 10 more were injured, including a teenager, reports the State Emergency Service. A shop, a car, and a church were damaged. On the morning of April 17, the city was attacked again. Seven people were injured. Among them was an eight-year-old boy, local authorities reported. Fires broke out in an administrative building and an apartment building. A car also caught fire in Sumy region on the evening of April 16, a drone attacked an SES unit, resulting in damage to the building. Rescuers were in a shelter and were not injured. Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Serhiy Fleish Beskrestnov reacts to reports of an attack on Kharkiv by a Russian UAV BM-35 with an installed StarLink satellite terminal. According to him, a check revealed that this terminal was not working. The insider Z-channel Izankanka showed strikes by remote-controlled Shaheds on a substation in the Kryvyi Rih region. And this, if anything, is 70 km from the front line. That is, in principle, nothing extraordinary. The Russian Armed Forces controlled drones at such depths even before the mass adoption of Starlink. It's just that scaling these capabilities is now much more difficult for them than for Ukrainians, and for Ukrainians. But we must not forget that such capabilities still exist. But there is also good news. The Ogo.ua resource has updated the map of regular power outages by region of Ukraine, but this has turned out to be a mere formality. Daily power outages are no longer recorded anywhere. Repair work has begun in a number of regions, which may cause hourly outages a couple of times a week. And in some places, Russia is still hitting energy infrastructure, which can lead to power outages in individual regions. But in general, the third attempt to create social collapse in Ukraine by collapsing the energy infrastructure has officially and finally failed, primarily thanks to the selfless work of Ukrainian air defense forces and repair crews. Fleish Beskrestnov also talks about the Russian mobile operator that the Russian troops are maximally using for terror in Ukraine. This operator, he writes, is called Tele2. Every Shahed is equipped with a Tele2 SIM card. Batches of these SIM cards are specially ordered from operators and supplied to Shahed manufacturers. In Ukraine, roaming for Tele2 SIM cards on Shaheds is blocked. However, along the borders, Shaheds receive roaming services, for example, from Belarusian operators. SIM cards can also work in roaming from Polish or Romanian operators, flying along the borders with these countries. "I do not rule out the possibility," writes Beskrestnov, "that SIM cards of the same operator are used to control mysterious UAVs that appear in various European countries." "I believe that mobile and fixed-line operators of the entire civilized world should cease business relations with an operator that is used by the Russian Federation for terrorist purposes. This concerns roaming agreements and international interconnection. Tele2 should become a local internal Russian telecommunications operator. I have already discussed this issue with Vladislav Vlasyuk," Fleish concludes. Let me remind you, Vlasyuk is the authorized representative of the President of Ukraine for sanctions policy. In general, Ukraine also uses mobile communications for military purposes, as they write in Z-channels, for example, acoustic sensors deployed in a network transmit data about the detected noise of approaching Russian drones using SIM cards of the operator Bakhmuttelecom. But, let's agree, this is not the same as using European roaming for reconnaissance of targets for future terrorist attacks. So yes, those who are watching me in European countries bordering Ukraine, please contact your authorities and mobile operators with a call to ban roaming for them. And generally to everyone, because why is a Russian operator that helps kill Ukrainians available, or rather, has roaming agreements with other operators around the world. Turn it off, damn it. In general, write, write requests, write to companies, write to politicians. This issue needs to be raised. This will help reduce the number of deaths in Ukraine. Yes, just as Starlink and its shutdown helped reduce the number of deaths in Ukraine, so this measure, if this operator loses the ability to roam, will help save Ukrainian lives. A private air defense system has shot down a jet Shahed for the first time at a speed of over 400 km/h, reported Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov and showed a corresponding video. Let me remind you, the Ukrainian Private Air Defense project differs from the Russian approach in that these groups are at least issued full-fledged weapons. They are already doing with
with all sorts of interesting things, like anti-aircraft towers with machine-gun turrets, controlled by an Xbox gamepad. Moreover, from the state, there is only, in fact, the machine gun. But without it, the system would not work. We continue to develop the private air defense project, - writes Fyodorov. The private air defense group in the Kharkiv region is actively shooting down Shaheds. In particular, the first destruction of a jet drone has been recorded. This is a new level of complexity. The enemy is scaling up the use of jet drones, which are faster and more difficult to intercept. By order of the president, we are systematically building a multi-layered air defense system and strengthening the protection of the sky. One of the elements of this system is private groups that strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure. The goal of the project is to quickly scale capabilities without additional burden on combat units. Currently, private air defense groups are being formed at nineteen enterprises. They are integrated into a unified air force command system and work as part of the overall air defense architecture. The next step is to scale the project and its results. More downed targets and faster response to threats, - he announces. According to Ukrainian intelligence, roads are being built in the border areas of Belarus towards the territory of Ukraine, and artillery positions are being equipped. This was reported by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, reports the publication Militarny. We believe that Russia will again try to drag Belarus into its war. I have instructed the relevant channels to warn the de facto leadership of Belarus about Ukraine's readiness to defend its land and independence. The nature and consequences of recent events in Venezuela should deter the leadership of Belarus from making mistakes," - stated Volodymyr Zelensky. According to him, intelligence also records attempts by the occupation contingent to regroup forces, most likely to compensate for personnel shortages. In this regard, it becomes more obvious why the activity of the armed forces in the territory of Belarus has increased, - emphasized Volodymyr Zelensky. At the same time, although on April 17, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko signed a decree on the conscription of reserve officers for military service in 2026, such measures are carried out annually on a planned basis, - notes the publication Militarnyi. At the end of March, it became known that Russia wants to deploy new base stations for controlling Shahed-type strike drones in Belarus. According to Gur, a total of four such stations have been recorded in Belarus. It is known that the Russian Federation actively uses Belarusian civilian infrastructure, in particular, mobile communication towers in Belarus, to plot routes for its Shaheds. Thus, the Russians ensured a stable signal for hitting targets located near the northern and western borders of Ukraine, and also entered the territory of NATO countries. You know, in the current relatively hopeless situation for the Kremlin, I am even ready to believe that they will really try to involve Belarus in a war with Ukraine again, or even with NATO countries. The only question is why the de facto leadership of Belarus, which has developed quite productive relations with the White House in the format of lifting sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners, would do this. In general, we will follow the developments, although now it is much more difficult than during previous potential escalations on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, because during this time the Lukashenists managed to destroy the civilian intelligence network of the Belarusian Hayun project, which tracked the movement of Belarusian and Russian troops in almost real-time. So we are keeping our finger on the pulse as much as possible. Russia is preparing a new offensive in the southeast of Ukraine and is bringing up strategic reserves. Another 20,000 troops. Now the occupiers in Ukraine have about 680,000 soldiers. The goal is to completely capture Donbas by September, - reports a correspondent for the Financial Times, citing data from Ukrainian military intelligence. Well, firstly, no one will capture Donbas by September. This is already obvious to almost everyone. Although, of course, this could be a situation that has already happened a couple of times. They invented Russian offensive deadlines themselves, they themselves failed and reported. But as Syrsky once reported on Russian plans to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9, 2024, spoiler alert, they are still capturing. Although, perhaps, the plans really exist. Russia's plan was to capture Kyiv in 3 days, but it didn't end very successfully. Secondly, as we discussed in yesterday's video, even these reserves of 20,000 will not compensate for the reduction of the Russian grouping in Ukraine by 30,000 since December. And thirdly, I will cite the opinion of a Ukrainian military author from the Telegram channel "Officer," who is not known for his overconfident approach. Here's what he writes. Someone is going to capture the Donetsk region. I am not surprised by the news about the possible transfer of 20,000 Russian servicemen to achieve the goal of capturing the entire territory of the Donetsk region. They really need this reserve, if it exists at all, not just in the command's reports. After all, every month in the area of responsibility of each corps of the Ukrainian defense forces, the enemy loses a fully staffed regiment in terms of manpower, with registration and confirmation for each deceased. I am 99% sure that the figure of 20,000 also includes support and command units. That is, we are talking not only about infantry. But even if it were exclusively infantry, such a quantity is extremely insufficient for offensive actions of an operational or operational-tactical level at current loss rates. Therefore, a significant part of this reinforcement can pre-order their coffins, - summarizes the officer on his Telegram channel. Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Miroshnikov talks about what is happening in the zone of the Russian offensive near Hulyaypole in the Zaporizhzhia region. It's quite serious there, although not as much as in the victorious reports of Z-channels. So, here's what he writes. On the Ugledar direction, round-the-clock massive assaults by the Russian Armed Forces continue. The enemy's primary task is to secure the flanks of Hulyaypole. That is, we are talking about the same actions they have already undertaken. However, a series of Ukrainian counterattacks disrupted their plans some time ago. This refers to the Ternovate direction. Let me remind you, the Ukrainians cleared Ternovate during the February-March counteroffensive, and now the Russian military is apparently trying to infiltrate there again. But Miroshnikov also writes that an increase in assaults towards the Hulyaypole district with a further aim at Novoselivka is observed. The Russian Armed Forces in spring and most likely summer will form prerequisites for encircling Orekhov from the northeast. The Hulyaypole-Novoselivka area is very suitable for this. In addition, such an advance would put our garrison west of Hulyaypole in serious danger. In other words, the Zaporizhzhia region remains one of the main and most difficult directions of hostilities at this stage of the war, concludes Miroshnikov, which, in principle, is not surprising, since it is one of the main points of application for the Russian Armed Forces in 2026. The Russian command expects to reach at least the city of Zaporizhzhia this year, or even storm at least its left-bank, i.e., eastern part, which I have told you about in my video on Russian offensive plans for this year. The 40th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled an attempt by a Russian landing on one of the islands in the Dnipro floodplains in the Kherson region, - writes the Ukrainian resource Infaktum. If anything, floodplains are a shallow, marshy area in a river delta with many islands. The first boat with a landing party tried to cross the Dnipro but was hit by Ukrainian drones. Then another boat with a landing party came to help. Defense forces operators destroyed it, as well as the infantry that landed on the island. As a result, 15 Russian servicemen were killed. Infaktum also noticed on one of the frames the interface of a Hornet drone from the company of former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, which the Russian Armed Forces nicknamed "Martian" and which is increasingly found in the defense forces and in the Russian rear, as well as, apparently, in areas of the front where it is difficult to organize a constant presence of operators of ordinary FPV drones of relatively short range, such as on these islands. The main Z-blogger for the Aerospace Forces, Fighter Bomber, wrote a very interesting post about how the air war is going, not of drones, but of classic aviation against air defense and enemy aviation is also going in its own unique way, because no country can gain air superiority, which reduces the role of aviation to a minimum. And the Z-blogger explains why. The sides, he writes, have adapted to each other and cannot surprise each other in terms of the struggle for air superiority of any kind yet. Whether "yet" or "no longer" is unclear, but in this regard, both sides are in stagnation. That is, the number of carriers only gives an advantage in the number of deployed means of destruction. Translating into human language from military. If there are many planes, it doesn't mean you can bomb enemy air defense. You can just launch more missiles and bombs per day. But due to the fact, writes Fighter Bomber, that an effective airspace control system has been built along the entire front line on both sides for hundreds of kilometers deep, both air battles and the work of MANPADS and bombing look the same. A plane is detected a hundred kilometers from the LBS. Its type is determined, and tracking begins. It is clear that the plane is also aware of the boundaries of the enemy's engagement zones, has information about the location of enemy fighters, and does not approach them within their engagement range. And, of course, they know that they are seen by everyone. And the launch of any missiles. And the dropping of FABs is also visible on radars, so the enemy, 15 minutes before arrival in some cases, takes cover in a safe place or simply leaves their object for the duration of the attack, which affects efficiency, but does not affect slides, reports, and payments for destroyed targets, which means everyone is satisfied. The air battle is even more dismal. Fighters shoot at each other with missiles from several hundred kilometers away, without entering the engagement zone of SAMs or touching its edge, provoking SAMs to expend missiles. The trajectories of the missiles are visible, and their aircraft or SAMs are diverted to a safe place. PVO missiles of Patriot and S-400 also see everything and act similarly. Specifically, in one direction over 3 months, approximately 727 FABs of various types were dropped. Approximately 419 of them reached the target area. Some bombs had direct hits, some did not even reach the vicinity of the city at all. This is most likely due to the impact of EW systems on both sides, which have learned to deal with the latest generation "Comet" - a Russian antenna for countering EW. Such effectiveness is still not bad, but the trend is not good, accuracy is falling. Any obvious options for increasing effectiveness without a multiple increase in losses in aircraft and equipment have long been used by both sides. All logical intermittent and revolutionary tactics of aviation use are also clear to both sides. And what they will lead to in strategic maneuvers of infiltration of combat pairs, individual BBMs and Enduros, i.e., motorcycles. Fighter Bomber means that if the war looks the way it does, namely small groups against small groups, then aviation, designed to bomb large strongholds and columns of equipment, will be of little help. Will front-line aviation switch to operating at extremely low altitudes? Fighters to clear airspace before strike groups, and helicopters to dive attacks - time will tell. So we continue to work, wait, hope, and believe. Aliens should not let us down," - writes Fighter Bomber. I also believe in aliens, but rather in the aforementioned Martians and their brethren, because Russian air defense, although it has managed to significantly limit the actions of Ukrainian aviation, is not yet capable of counteracting Ukrainian drones. Why have we been observing "PVO-tsit" for months now? This, of course, does not mean that Ukrainian aviation will sooner or later gain freedom of action in the sky, because Russian fighters at airfields are not going anywhere, although they may be partially blinded by hunting for radars. In general, of course, the war in the air may change, but it will still have a greater impact on the effectiveness of drones themselves, not classic aviation. At least, in this war, as the war with Iran showed, aviation as a whole has not been canceled. It's just that to be effective, it must be much better equipped and more effective than Russian or Ukrainian, despite the daily heroism of Ukrainian pilots, who perform real miracles with the resources they have. For two months now, I have been telling you about Russian attempts to recruit students into drone troops, because the campaign is noticeable, extensive, and persistent, and I also talked about it in yesterday's video about the decline in contract recruitment rates. But, you know, every now and then, a suspicion creeps in, maybe this scheme is still working, as unexpectedly for everyone, from 2023 to the present, the same recruitment of contract soldiers for fat payouts has been working. After all, the same Madyar takes the prospect of expanding Russian drone troops quite seriously. So, the first evidence has appeared that no, students are not completely idiotic after all. And this is not some kind of leak. This was announced by a real local military commissar. The channel "Mobilization News" writes. What to do? In 5 months, only 21 students from Yekaterinburg agreed to sign a contract. Most of them are students of technical schools and colleges, and there are almost no volunteers from universities. This was announced by the head of the city selection point for contract service, Dmitry Dementyev, stating that they are actively working with students. >> And students with higher education, they are probably still thinking. There are certain barriers inside, of course, guys are 18 years old. There is also the barrier of parents. >> But you, they write in the channel, have no barriers or brakes left. You sit and openly, without shame, broadcast that 18-year-old boys are being sent to slaughter, and parents are called an obstacle. People are outraged by this, and quite rightly so. Telegram has partially started working in Russia without a VPN after an update, reports Astra. Apparently, the messenger is testing an internal blocking bypass mechanism on the latest version of the application for Android. Since the evening of April 16, Telegram has started working without VPN and proxy for some users in Russia. This may be related to internal changes in the messenger, - writes the Telegram channel Kodrovo. According to a specialized publication, Telegram has started working correctly on Android devices with the latest versions of the application, including beta builds. Users can send messages, upload media, and other functions without additional bypass tools. Durov clarifies that the first connection may require several reboots. At the same time, the geolocation of the active session suddenly changes to the USA. The same location is displayed for many users. As Apple Insider writes, to work with such a scheme, you need an Android smartphone with the current version of Telegram, an active Telegram Premium subscription, and several reboots in some cases up to 7. The publications also note that the connection may be identified as foreign, for example, from the Netherlands, Norway, or the USA. Kodrovo emphasizes that access without VPN was mainly received by users with a premium subscription, while free accounts still face more restrictions. On iPhones, as the publication indicates, Telegram still requires a VPN or proxy, although Apple Insider records rare exceptions. Kod Durova notes that the behavior of Telegram in the latest version for Android resembles the operation of the built-in MT Proki mechanism, a blocking bypass mechanism within the MT Proto protocol. Apple suggests that in this way, the internal Telegram mechanism for bypassing blocks is being tested on version 12.6.4 for Android. At the same time, projects like "Svazi Detector" have not recorded significant improvements in Telegram's accessibility in Russia. The failure rate remains high. Meanwhile, deputy Anatoly Vatserman proposed to liquidate Roskomnadzor. He made this statement while talking to journalists at the Moscow Economic Forum 2026, where there was a lot of everything, but we'll talk about it tomorrow. "I know at least one place that needs to be restricted, and if possible, liquidated altogether - this is Roskomnadzor," - said Vatserman, responding to a question about what he thinks about the latest restrictions and blockages on the internet. The parliamentarian stated that until the end of his term in the Duma, he will try to initiate a refinement of this law so that its current interpretation becomes impossible. Earlier, it became known that TV personality Anatoly Vatserman, a lover of fascists, will not be re-elected to the State Duma in his single-mandate constituency, as he could not find sponsors for his campaign. So, apparently, he decided to go all out. But why not, as they say? Well, and a little more Russian domestic political cringe. The head of the State Duma Committee on Family Affairs announced a fight against IVF for single women and advised them to look at participants in the SVO, reports Insider. The reason was data on the growing popularity of artificial insemination. According to the Telegram channel Baza, demand for IVF has increased by 50% in the last 4 years, and some women are increasingly deciding to have children for themselves. Nina Ostannina called this a profound problem in society. We have an understanding that if a child is raised only by a mother, it will affect his specialization in the future. We are already feeling the fruits of female upbringing in educational organizations. Then we have these effeminate men with a feminist tinge. Moreover, the lack of will and backbone - all these are the results of female upbringing, - says Ostannina. In the zone of their special military operation, there are real men, - she adds. So it would be better for these women to look at our military and find an opportunity to contact them, support them, wait for them. Ostannina herself raised two sons with her husband, Insider adds context. One of them, Daniil Ostannin, was sentenced in 2012 to 12 years in a strict regime colony for the murder of his business partner. And what kind of children will grow up raised by "shniks," if they grow up at all, it's scary to even imagine. In general, it is clear that the Russian authorities are fighting not against the demographic crisis, but for the so-called traditional family, which in their understanding, apparently, means when husbands beat and kill wives. Well, one more small detail, which I saw a discussion about. I don't know how accurate this information is, it will need to be checked. But they write that the demand for IVF has increased largely because many simply had their husbands killed in the war. And, accordingly, well, they cannot, accordingly, live with a husband as Ostannina would like. Well, in general, once again, the authorities are screwing up demographics, the authorities are screwing up the people, the authorities are screwing up the population. And all this is to satisfy Putin's whim to kill people in another country. Well, with you was Michael Nak. And see you soon. All the best. Bye.