Transcription
Hello, this is Cryptolase. I know you are not doing well. With what has just happened, it is completely normal. There was a huge liquidation on the altcoins, a huge liquidation on BTC, and generally all cryptos. The biggest liquidation we have ever seen. But this is not only due to Trump. No, other things happened. We will talk about that a little later. Mechanical failures that we find on exchanges and which led to this drop. I will show you some charts to fully understand what happened, and you will see that the decision and the thinking will be much more complicated because who to believe in this drop that we have seen. In any case, what is certain is that it hurts and it will certainly mark history because yes, we had Donald Trump, I made a video for you last night about it, who simply told us that he would certainly impose customs duties on China of 200% because of their control, their policy of control over rare earths. Duties since he came to power. Why did it react so much here? Why did it hurt so much? What concretely happened? This will be the subject of this video, and how we will manage the next steps, especially the reopening of the markets, because the reopening of the market will be very, very important. So, just before, just to give you an idea, Hrypto gives us references because I was often asked, "But have you ever seen liquidations like this?" Already, when we were at 3 billion in liquidation, I had never seen that. You see, the Covid crash was 1.2 billion in liquidation. FTX 1.6 billion. Terra Luna, we were around those figures, 1 billion, then the next day 1 billion, and a few days later another 1 billion. But we never had 19 billion in liquidation. 19 billion in liquidation. But concretely, what happened? How can we liquidate so much? And I think those who were in position and got liquidated have part of the answers. A large part of the stop losses did not trigger due to a liquidity problem on the exchanges. I will come back to that a little later in the video. And on the other hand, we have other people, other people who were positioned upstream. Some arrived in the morning to open very, very large shorts. We talked about it, notably in yesterday's daily, someone who came to place a huge short on Hyperliquide. Well, in this case, they walked away with a lot of money, 200 million dollars in profit. We have a few others who arrived a little later, 15 minutes before the announcement was made. This announcement led to the drop. The drop which was quite enormous. Again, I'll show you. 19.3 billion liquidated in the last 24 hours. 17 billion on longs, we have shorts at 2.49 billion. There is no more room to mark how much impact it had. BTC, Ether, Solana, the others, and then we have Hyper Liquid, XRP, Dodge, and generally everything that was ultra the real G. We had a total purge while, and this is very important to note, while the Nasdaq fell. The Nasdaq fell, not something extraordinary. If we look at just the day, hop, we take our little ruler, we take the opening, we take the closing. We fell 3.5%. 3.5% against, against the announcement of tariffs, which did not happen overnight. The market impact was much longer, but overall 26%. And yet, we liquidated much more than during that entire period. What concretely happened? What caused this wick? Look closely at this chart. Look closely at this chart. We went back to 104,000. We'll talk about that a bit later. And if I show you this chart, this chart, the lowest point is not at 104,000, it's at 100,000. Here, this is Kraken. Okay, I'll show you this chart. Binance Daily, the lowest point is 107,480. Do you understand a little where I'm going? How is it that we have different prices? Wait, this is the CME. Tac. Here on the Total Index, when we look at Kraken, when we look at Binance here, how is it that we have price structures that are different with lows that occurred with such a gap? This is mainly due to the liquidity of the exchange markets. Specifically, centralized exchanges that do not necessarily have the same market makers, those who place orders to ensure that transactions are made. The order books emptied very quickly. Liquidation levels were not respected. Many, and I saw many messages like this, placed stop losses that were not respected or respected much lower with a liquidation because there was no more liquidity to do so. And this is precisely what caused this enormous cascade of liquidations, and the less liquidity there was, the more there was a bearish purge, and the more there were derivatives, the more violent this purge was. And this is exactly what we experienced. That's why we reached such impressive levels as 19 billion dollars liquidated, mainly due to market liquidity, due to leverage, and this news. Okay, but this news only caused the Nasdaq to drop by 3%. Only 3% for the Nasdaq. And yet, we had a cascade of liquidations that is disproportionate based on the charts we are looking at. And this is where we need to understand that this purge is a purge. When we look, for example, here, some went to seek 410,000 and others went to seek below 98,000, it is truly a purge linked to leverage and liquidity and market makers. But then, why is this important? It is important because when we look at the CME closing, we have a weekly closing that is rather positive. We did not break the 109,000 levels, we closed in the order block, rather positive, we reabsorbed. Except that from the moment the market ended, from the moment the CME market closed, what happened? We had precisely the enormous liquidation closures that took place. But then, which closing are we going to have to consider? Will it be the closing of the Total Index? Will it be the closing of Kraken? Will it be the closing of Coinbase? Will it be the closing of Binance? Because here, these have completely different signs. A closing below 107,000 is an invalidation here of a bullish acceleration, a liquidity grab at 108,000, and just a liquidity grab. Do you understand the difference between the two? Do you understand the impact this will have? Unfortunately, we don't have the answer right away. I think we will have to wait for the weekly closings to really see the reabsorptions we will have and the way in which it will be carried out, and especially how the market will react on Sunday evening, because the market stopped before the drop. Is this, in fact, a pricing of the purge on Monday, particularly on the Nasdaq and on ZTF here, because there were very few liquidity outflows? of other flows of 4.5 million dollars. So there wasn't that much money. What will happen with volatility, the fear of volatility that occurred? And why are we currently seeing a continuation of the decline? This continuation of the decline comes from all the people who are in a panic, waking up and saying, I need to get out of this market. I'm getting out of the market, I'm selling, I'm selling at market. There is no more liquidity, so naturally the price impact is even stronger, and this is what we are seeing now through a bearish continuation and certainly through retest phases where there will be the most liquidity, that's where there will be the most resilience. When we look at Binance, for example, we see that Binance indeed has much more liquidity, if only here in the second bearish wave that we are seeing now, which is the phase the next day, generally the awakening with the hangover that we are seeing, where there is a decision to leave the market because emotionally it is much too complicated. I haven't even talked about altcoins yet, I'm just talking about BTC for now. This is to explain to you how important and unprecedented this is, how much it hurts, and how it will continue to hurt because psychologically it will mark minds. And my question is, what is the perspective of institutional investors regarding this? And unfortunately or fortunately, it's the weekend, so there won't be any overreaction, we'll only see it Sunday evening, and something that can be resolved. which has already been somewhat resolved by saying, new statement from our friend Donald Trump who says, "Yes, well, after all, I haven't canceled the meeting with XY. I'm thinking of canceling, but I haven't canceled." Who has already started to try to put out the fire by saying, well, maybe I went a little too fast in this. How is it that the market reacted so violently? The market reacted violently because here we have an economic fear of a probability of recession in the US. A shutdown that continues, and therefore naturally a market that pushes, and at some point a correction, a correction that we are currently experiencing. I'm just showing you the weekly to fully understand that we pushed, we had a correction phase like we could have seen in July 2025, and then we can very well start again. There is no problem on that side. The problem lies with cryptos and the liquidity issues we may have had, which have been a big problem for cryptos for some time now, but even more so with the increase in open interest, the increase in leverage. We will look at two or three small things just to show you that we have indeed liquidated absolutely everything that was below 107,000 dollars. We liquidated the 104,000, the 105,000, and we reabsorbed above and we are consolidating here. This is a pattern that is found quite frequently when we look at what happened, particularly during the Terra Luna crash, we agree on that, we have to go back relatively far, but it is exactly the same thing where we had a very strong purge with liquidation closures that followed each other, and then a reabsorption, a consolidation, and then a second purge that could have had something that we also find during the crisis we experienced at the beginning of 2025 with a purge, a reabsorption of that purge, and then a bearish continuation behind it. This does not mean that we will necessarily continue to fall or consolidate. After the alts, it's something else entirely. I will address that in a few moments. But it means here that there will necessarily be a second wave unless we have a change, and this is very important, a dynamic change and a change in communication from Donald Trump to reassure the basic markets in order to reabsorb this part. And again, we don't know how institutional investors will react to this volatility. And what is important to see also is that BTC dominance has exploded upwards, 63%. BTC has been much more resilient because it has much more liquidity than the rest of the cryptos. And Ethereum was greatly liquidated. We went back to test 3400 dollars. So this is to show how low we went for Ethereum because Ethereum is used a lot in decentralized finance and therefore is often liquidated, and moreover, it has much less liquidity than BTC. And when we look at Total 3, we see that the liquidation took place drastically. We went to test the lows of June 2025. We went back to test the lows we experienced in this purge phase we had here on February 3, 2025. For those who remember, we are in the XXL version of this candle. We have some altcoins that have dropped by -90% in just a few hours, as is the case with Atom, and we had such purges at one point that there were necessarily shifts in stop losses and a lot of liquidations. We are talking about almost 2 million traders who were liquidated because the orders could not be executed. Many have stop losses, but unfortunately, the stop losses were not respected because the market did not have enough liquidity in a movement that got out of control. And this is the case, this is a movement that got out of control, which has certainly marked absolutely all memories and emotionally shocked absolutely everyone. And I think that's the most important thing, that is to say, we had a shock, a psychological shock that will lead to capitulations, enormous capitulations on altcoins, enormous capitulations on all cryptos. And I think that in the comments, we will have many people testifying to the psychological impact it may have had and the fact that yes, many have left and many will not return to cryptos because of this extraordinary purge event. I'm not going to tell you that it will start again tomorrow. I'm simply going to tell you that we will have to be patient. Patient this weekend, patient in the potential resolution of the Sino-American conflict and in Trump's ability to reassure the markets. And even if that's the case, how can we reassure people who have been entirely liquidated on the altcoins? For those who had orders, particularly on certain exchanges that went much lower than expected, there were opportunities. Now, we have to ask ourselves how the market will react on Monday. Personally, I think we will have a return of volatility on Sunday, and it will be truly decisive for what follows. This return of liquidity, if there is no new news, unfortunately, there is a high chance that it will be bearish on traditional markets and therefore also on institutional investors who will certainly deleverage part of their positions on BTC through ETFs. However, it must be understood that the liquidation has already taken place. So this means that BTC volatility will always be lower than the next volatility we will have. Same for ETH, same for altcoins because we had this liquidation event. There is no more leverage currently, there is nothing more on that side. If we look at the liquidation levels, by zooming out, we see that open interest has fallen lower than what we experienced in July 2025. We have returned to the zones of April 2025. The liquidation level we saw just on Binance's perpetual, which is again, as I showed you, not the one that suffered the most. We have reached liquidation levels that we have rarely seen. This is to show you how little is left in terms of leverage, and even we are on funding rates that regularly go negative. So this indeed implies that a very, very large part of the market has been purged. So volatility will always be, for future movements, much lower, at least downwards, on Bitcoin, Ethereum. This does not mean that we cannot go down, but it simply means that we will have to be patient, see the institutional reaction, and here, not react emotionally, and above all, again, I repeat continuously, have good risk management because if we are indeed exposed at 100% leverage, unfortunately, there is a high chance and a high probability that we will be liquidated. Tell me in the comments how you managed this evening or perhaps the awakening was brutal. What is your reflection on this? Have you completely capitulated? Have you exited? Have you been liquidated? Or conversely, have you bought, whether through orders, and what is your preparation for next week? Because again, events like this, they leave a mark. Events like this, they affect your ability to make good decisions, and it's always very difficult, especially when you are alone. I hope this video has given you a little insight into what happened, what will happen, and especially to make you understand that you are not alone in this situation. You are not alone in the event we experienced because it is an event that is again extraordinary. It is an event that exceeded all expectations. It is a form of Black Swan that we had never seen, and which is again, most certainly linked to a pure and simple failure of market liquidity. of crypto, and I'll see you very soon for a new video. M.