Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. Despite the fact that we have a market that is still in correction, we still have people telling us that it is not the bull market and that there is no reason for it to be the bull market in the coming years because it is just a mid-cycle correction. So that means there is still a second cycle behind it. I will explain this vision to you and especially see, on the contrary, what can be seen as a break in this cycle, infinitely in behavior. You will see that there have been some big news that have dropped in the last 24 hours on cryptos. You will see that it is rather very positive. But despite that, we have a macroeconomy with still a Trump who is always making waves, not necessarily positively, and that necessarily impacts general performance. Before we start, I invite you to join the free private Telegram group which is in the comments in the description. Very important, you have lots of information, lots of training, lots of things and alpha. It's in the comments in the description and it's free. We're starting with the news from Vanec who tells us that the October pullback would be a mid-cycle reset. So for it to be a mid-cycle reset, it implies that we are halfway through, except that we are almost at the end of the 4 years. Do you see what that implies? It implies that we are re-entering this notion of a super cycle. We are no longer in 4 years, we are in more, and this is something we see very, very regularly at the end of a cycle. And this is where we really need to ask ourselves quite a few questions about the reality of what could happen next. Isn't this precisely a signal of a potential top and a potential end to the cycle in 2025, or is it indeed a pure and hard reset? It's true that 19 billion dollars liquidated is significant. What is important is not to consider this as something separate and a representation of a change. And I think that indeed, it is the representation of a change, but not necessarily exactly the one we think. We will see after the news. We are starting with the news that comes rather from fear with Google which announces to us once again the Quantum threat. So 13,000 times faster evolution than a supercomputer. Okay. And so they are brandishing once again the fact that quantum computers will be able to crack the blockchain at some point. Well, I reassure you that indeed that is the case if we reach critical levels, which we are very, very far from, and it is already anticipated by the majority of blockchains, and above all, you should know that if it cracks the blockchain, there is a high chance that it will also crack all security systems, especially military and even banking systems worldwide. So I think the problem is very, very far from being solely blockchain-related. But so it's just to show you that we often have a return of fear like this. We need to take a maximum of distance. And what better way to take distance than to look at our friend at a16z Crypto, the group that released their annual papers to simply show the evolution of the sector. And what is happening? Well, I want to tell you that it's positive, even very, very positive. Given that we have an increase in stablecoin transfers, when we look at the transaction volume over the last 12 months and compare it to Visa and PayPal, we are exactly between the two and we are steadily approaching Visa to potentially surpass it. And we see that we are really in a dynamic where it is the most interesting means of transfer and especially the least expensive. And even to go further, always by zooming out, we will see that there is a rather impressive increase in the number of users, plus 10 million active daily users. Okay? We are really talking about people who concretely use the blockchain and crypto. So this shows that we really have a big, big evolution. And then in crypto holders, similarly, a very good evolution. We have gone from 716 million crypto holders. So we are still in enormous growth. This growth shows us that there is still adoption and that it is growing little by little. Anyway, we see it in the change of vision, not in Europe, okay, and especially not in France, but of Bitcoin. That alone is enough to show that there is indeed a shift taking place, mainly by institutions, and this is also seen at the level of whales who clearly use, for the most part, we have already talked about it in the daily news several times, but ETFs, so a part of the ETF volumes comes from large whales, the OGs who hold in self-custody a part of their BTC which they will potentially transfer to ETFs for simplicity of use. So this is just to explain to you that there is really a shift happening. Now, to say that we are breaking the 4-year cycle, that we are entering a super cycle, and that we are returning to something that we have said several times and each time we have been disappointed. Well, we take into account the fact that yes, we are indeed in a period of very significant liquidation. We have never seen this. We have reset a large part of the open interest, and I can assure you that we continue to liquidate as many people as possible. Look at this in the last 24 hours, even though we haven't stopped liquidating people, and especially with October 10th's huge liquidation of 19 billion, we liquidated 479 million with 350 million longs, 169 million shorts. So we still have people present in the open interest that is there. So we don't really have a sudden break. It's something, I think, that will change gradually. And anyway, this news alone is enough to make us understand that a shift in mentality is taking place. And indeed, ETFs will certainly cannibalize a large part of the liquidity through their uses, and in any case, BTC ETFs, potentially others, we will see later. We just recall that BTC still has a very particular image at the institutional level. It is the only one integrated into institutional portfolios to a significant extent, even in portfolios that are not ultra-aggressive. And so this shows you that there is a real shift in this regard. Another thing, another piece of news on Ethereum, there is news that for me is relatively interesting. It's the fast RPC that should arrive. It's not news directly integrated into Ethereum, but it's something that would be structurally above through an additional RPC. RPC, we recall, is the link between the blockchain and your wallet to pass information, and it would be capable of pre-confirming what you want to validate with a 200-millisecond validation. Currently, we are in the hundreds of milliseconds. This means that we would drastically reduce latency for swaps, exchanges, or simply sending crypto. We'll see if it's integrated, how, and especially what congestions we might encounter. Because at some point, when you have a very, very large highway leading into a single lane, it's going to be complicated, it's going to get congested. How it will be managed, we don't know yet, but in any case, it's assured. We see that there are indeed changes happening clearly on Ether. Hyperliquid is strategically seeking 1 billion dollars to build up its treasury and increase its treasury in hype. We are still and always in a desire to strengthen the speculative bubble around treasury companies. I think we are really at the end of this bubble. In any case, they derive very little valuation from it. However, for the underlying assets, so hype in this case, it's rather positive because it means that we have significant purchase volumes. So to watch, is the notion of treasury and accumulation companies over? Are they not seeking valuation but is there a real desire for collateral valuation? We will get out of this by the end of the year. In the meantime, we still have our friend Trump making waves. This time, he is clearly attacking Russia with sanctions and a desire to pressure for the end of the war in Ukraine. We also recall that there are tensions with Venezuela. So all this to tell you that unfortunately we still don't have the end of the shutdown and we continue to have news that is a bit complicated, with in addition company results that are not extraordinary, notably with Netflix which had a small flop in this regard. We have an S&P that was a bit complicated yesterday and is in a consolidation phase at its resistance level of 670. A very important level that would certainly trigger a reaction as powerful with a restart and a continuation of the rise in the US economy. But for that, we need news. For that, we need the shutdown to end to have figures, to have Jerome Powell, and all this is coming at the end of this week and especially next week. Jerome Powell will speak, what will he say in the absence of figures? In the absence of the necessary elements to make a decision. Will he postpone his decision? That would be dramatic for the price. Will he take the lead by perhaps really making his cut, or will he have the data beforehand and at that point perhaps change his mind and make cuts? In any case, the market is clearly waiting for this moment to decide which way it will go and especially whether or not we will have a breather. I tend to tell you that we will rather have a bullish continuation on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 during the month of November. What will interest us is BTC on Nasdaq. Again, a very important ratio that shows us whether or not we are correlated and where we clearly stand in terms of underperformance or not. We see that we are clearly consolidating below 44, i.e., the ratio of 4.4, which is an important ratio. We had said 4.5, 4.4. We did touch around 4.2 before being able to restart and stabilize. As long as we establish a bottom here, it implies that on the next acceleration, there is a high chance that we can follow our friend Nasdaq and S&P 500, which would be rather positive, especially for the month of November. And this is unfortunately only for BTC. We will then look at the liquidity movements on altcoins. Already, we have seen a clear shift in liquidity with profit-taking on gold, and we see that there has been an inflow of money into several other assets. Indeed, crypto, but especially stocks, slightly risky assets, and bonds. We see that there has been a breather and profit-taking. Would we then have a continuation of the acceleration in stocks with cryptos following? This is rather my vision for the end of the year. Remember that there is still a lot of leverage, don't forget it. We see it every day when we trade together, 350 million longs liquidated, while we have spent weeks and days liquidating again and again and again, which shows you that we still have a very leveraged market that will always aim, I think, to be the true one given the end of the year and the expectations we have for the end of the year. And moreover, an interesting point is when we look a little at institutional investors, we see that we had a liquidity injection of 21,447 million dollars once it was consolidated. Yesterday, we had 101 million outflows. This has not yet been consolidated because the figures here from HBIT are around 100 million. I think we will be more around 41-40 million dollars in outflows. But we see that there is a slightly different dynamic. We see that there is a lot of hesitation. This hesitation comes from two things: first, the complicated macroeconomy, all that I explained to you earlier. And second, the fact that the market is lukewarm also makes liquidity injections much more complex. There is always a notion of risk management that is very important for institutions, and even when we see the OGs transferring, we see that the flows we find here are net flows. This does not mean that there have not been many transfers, many exits from people who have left, many people who have left, many people who have entered. So we must also take into account that the reading itself is not done only on the total, it must also be done on the volume. And we see that we have a lot of base volume. So this means that there are a lot of transfers into ETFs. And this also means that there is a lot of in and out shift happening. And this shift, we will see it anyway at the BTC level. I think we also see it at the level of Bitcoin's structure itself when we zoom out a little. We see that we have a very different pattern, which is much more mature and much less speculative. And this also goes with the arrival of institutions and the fact that we are old, we have a part of the old ones who are abandoning this notion of self-custody to go to ETFs for tax reasons, for Lombard simplicity, and also for infinite risk management. So all of this is changing, and we see it, and it's quite important in terms of momentum. When we look at the structure we had yesterday, we went to fill and reinforce the CME gap fill last night. We went to look for it well and we had a good restart. It's rather positive. It means that indeed, there was a reaction, unfortunately, it's not enough. So, we have filled the CME gap. So we have validated the gap well. We have a rebound here. What I would have liked is a much stronger rebound. To work again on the 111,000 dollars. Unfortunately, that's not the case. When we look at the 4-hour chart, we see that there is a resistance that is arriving, a form of oblique that we will certainly retest here not too long from now. We see clearly that we are even in a compression phase. A compression that is located here. And for those who recognize this pattern, we have already experienced it several times, even very many times. We are in a liquidity compression, we systematically create higher liquidity, lower liquidity. We will liquidate them at some point before. And then, we will have a movement. It's something that is quite frequent to systematically liquidate before having a real movement. And this means that being in compression, we will certainly have a resolution either in anticipation of Jerome Powell, so certainly I don't think Friday but rather Sunday in preparation for the week, Sunday evening, a bit like we see now, to have the total direction of the movement and to have, for me, the possibility of a re-acceleration in November and to aim a little higher. This does not mean that we cannot have bearish volatility. Again, before being able to restart. I think we need to be very careful in the risk management you will have with this volatility. And especially again, I'm talking about BTC. BTC is important because it leads the dance, it will set the tone, it has the most institutional liquidity injection. And what I will also monitor, and this confirms this vision a bit, is the MVRV. The MVRV is at a short-term bottom. We can't say for sure, but we could very well have a rebound here to have another acceleration on BTC, and this is the scenario that we would like to see and which is still quite probable. We even see on the 4-hour chart that we have a rather positive RSI structuring that can go much higher than this, and we will see how the price behaves and especially what the discourse and directives will be from Jerome Powell. Will he lower a rate, or will he simply wait for the figures, or will we have something more aggressive? I think the market is clearly waiting, the macro market and BTC as well. Let's not forget that we also have a part of our prices influenced by their liquidity injections and outflows. This is a point to keep in mind. I hope this video was enjoyable. If so, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. And I'll see you very soon.