Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Ethereum, as it is now tagged the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, this is a narrative we've been running with for a while. And essentially, the narrative was that after Ethereum went home, it would then rally to new all-time highs. Unfortunately, the first rally to new all-time highs would get rejected. This was always going to happen, right? And we said that when the local high in August occurs, that we should get a 30% correction back down. What's interesting is if you look at the move here from the high to the low, 30% drop. So, it's already happened, right? It's already happened. So, for me at this point, I have to flip the bias, right? I, I, you know, we were bullish on it down here when it went home, and we've been bullish on it up until August. But back then, on the sweep of the all-time high, it made sense to think that ETH would drop back to the bull market support band. And while it did that, the valuation against Bitcoin would also drop to the 20-week SMA. And sure enough, when Ethereum hit a new all-time high on its USD pair, ETH/Bitcoin started to bleed. And guess where it just found its current low? Well, we'll talk about this in a minute. It just found a low right around that 20-week moving average.
So, where do we go from here? Well, I will continue to make some bold calls, right, as we have been for Ethereum and and and dominance and everything. I will continue to do that. Just know that I probably will get something wrong relatively soon. And because of that, we have to talk about, like, what is the contingency plan? All right. So, what is my base case now? Well, I already told you my base case back in August. My base case was 30% drop, then rallied to new all-time highs. Now, I got people coming out today being like, "Well, what about what about tariffs?" You know, does that change anything? All that stuff doesn't matter. It just doesn't. And I know that sounds crazy. It just doesn't matter. Um, someone said, "Well, you know, now that it's happened, have you changed your mind?" I'm like, "No, because I thought this was going to happen." Now, it's true that if the top were already in for Ethereum, it's true that eventually it would get to the bull market support band, making me think I was right and maybe it just continues to drop. But for now, my base case is that Ethereum should now rally to an all-time high. That is what I think is going to happen.
Now, I would be willing to accept I'm wrong and to cut my losses on a weekly close by Bitcoin below its 50-week moving average. If we get weekly and maybe two weekly closes. If we get two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, then then I'm wrong because historically, whenever Bitcoin gets weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, that's the end of the cycle. Okay. So, I, I think Ethereum is going to rally to a new all-time high. However, I would have to pivot my view on two weekly closes by Bitcoin below the 50-week moving average. The reason for that is because Bitcoin leads the bull market. And if the bull market is already over, if the top is already in, then there's not really a great chance that Ethereum would then rally to a new all-time high. It's not impossible, but it would not be my base case at this point. And you know, there are some charts that would suggest we're pretty far along in the cycle. If you look at the ROI from peak to peak, and you compare this cycle to the 2016-2017 cycle, that cycle lasted 1473 days. We're currently on day 1433, there's not a lot of time left. And if you measure it from the low, it already looks kind of scary. It already looks like we've maybe gone as far as we can. And maybe this is the chart that is actually responsible for the liquidation cascade and not the tariffs. People will assign assign narratives to things because it makes them feel better. It makes them rationalize. But the news cycle just simply does not matter.
So, when it comes to Ethereum, why did I flip my bias in April? You know, why was I willing to call for new all-time highs on the rally that started in April, but none of these other rallies? Well, again, the rationale is when you look at the ETH/Bitcoin valuation, you'll notice that it was dropping up until April. And the reason why I think it bottomed back in April was because every time Ethereum goes home to its logarithmic regression trend line, that's when Ethereum bottoms against Bitcoin. And since I thought Ethereum had bottomed against Bitcoin, it made sense to me to take on the risk. And it made sense to call for new all-time highs. We also said many times that while Ethereum would likely fall back down and drop into a macro higher low, that alts would put in lower lows on their Bitcoin pairs. Remember that? And again, I tried explaining this as intricately as I could, and it sounded absolutely crazy. But there's what sounds crazy and there's what actually happened because you can see that ETH/Bitcoin still has a chance here to form a higher low, whereas the altcoin market on their Bitcoin pairs put in a lower low. Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin just went all the way down to 0.29. If you subtract out USDC as well, it went to 0.25, right? Which is a target we've called for a long time, 25% of Bitcoin's market cap, the collective altcoin market. It already went to 0.25. Others/Bitcoin, right? The the valuation of others against Bitcoin just put in a new cycle low. It went all the way down to 0.08. Now, what's interesting is others divided by Bitcoin just went to the same level that it went to in December of 2020. Right? So, the point here that I, I, you know, I want to make is is the same thing I've been talking about forever, right? And that is that it's easy for influencers to just call for alt season every single lower high. But the reality, the sobering reality is that these guys that shilled altcoins the entire way down now require an alt season just to get to potentially breaking even on their Satoshi valuation, right? It's like if alts rallied against Bitcoin several hundred percent, they still might not even break even because they've been riding the altcoin market down for years. And the reason why I thought Ethereum had a good a better chance of putting in a higher low is because I thought it had been sufficiently wrecked for this cycle. Right? ETH/Bitcoin had already been what I would consider to be sufficiently wrecked back over here in April of 2025. But this constant devaluation, this constant devaluation was not seen yet by the altcoin market back then. Right? If you look at all Bitcoin pairs, they didn't really have that same rapid devaluation, that sense of hopelessness. Then that was why it was easy to stay bearish on all Bitcoin pairs and stay bullish on Bitcoin dominance, right? That's the reason. And you know, if you look at Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, I would say, I mean, look at any point, we always have to be willing to pivot, but it's still for me, I still think in the short term, Bitcoin dominance will remain resilient for for the month of October. I just put out a video yesterday saying to expect Bitcoin dominance to spike up to 64%. That's where it it spiked up to in October of 2020 and October of 2017, right here, October 2017. And then October of 2020, we saw dominance hit that 64% level. And you can see we almost just hit that once again. So again, it people always say, well, no, it's not going to happen. And then it just, it just keeps on happening the same way, right? It just keeps on happening the same way. And and so, you know, I just want people to recognize that when it comes to Ethereum, my base case now, my base case is that Ethereum will form a low and rally to new all-time highs. To a large extent, this drop by Ethereum looks really similar to what we had back in the summer, right? We have a a a weekly candle back down to the bull market with a wick below it, right? With a wick below it. Same thing. So, I can't help but feel that it's like just the same thing over again. I imagine if we connect the dots here, you could say that there's like some massive, massive liquidation that happened. If you look at it on a daily time frame, maybe we can zoom in on this thing. You look at this on a daily time frame and we connect these dots, you can see that it's actually gone below that trend line, right? And and that's one of the reasons why when it comes to the ETH/Bitcoin valuation, like I want to be careful. Like I don't want to say that that has to be the low, the higher low. Like it, it might be, but knowing that Bitcoin dominance historically is really strong throughout October. Like I, I, I wouldn't necessarily look at this and say that the low for ETH/Bitcoin has to be in, but I, I would argue because you can see it's kind of on that trend line right now. But I would argue that you should start to see ETH/Bitcoin form a low sometime the next few weeks, right? Somewhere either right here or it could go a little bit lower. Like it's possible. If you look at some of these prior cycles, you can see it, it doesn't always find support at the 20-week SMA. Sometimes it'll go just below it. Even in 2017, it went below it. So, something to consider, right? Like it, it, you could see it go a little bit lower.
One of the reasons why it might happen is if the bull market for Bitcoin is not over, then Bitcoin has to prove that. And usually, a lot of other things will lag while Bitcoin proves that. And Bitcoin dominance will go up while Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs. Right? So, if you overlay Bitcoin dominance onto the chart, you'll see that historically, as Bitcoin rallies to all-time highs or a new cycle high, Bitcoin dominance goes up. But when Bitcoin breaks through and puts in a new cycle high, that's when Bitcoin dominance gets a correction, right? So, you can pretty clearly see like when Bitcoin broke through right there, that's when Bitcoin dominance got that correction. When Bitcoin USD broke through in 2024, we saw Bitcoin dominance get that correction as well. And then when it broke through here in 2025, we saw Bitcoin dominance get a correction. So, that would be the justification, one of the justifications for, you know, thinking that the low for ETH/Bitcoin, the higher low is is either, you know, it could be in, but because for ETH/Bitcoin to go higher in any durable fashion this for the rest of this cycle, Bitcoin would have to would have to, you know, show would have to prove that the bull market's not over. And if it's not over, then that means we have some time for Bitcoin to get back to new all-time highs. And if that happens, Bitcoin dominance should go up, which is why we have to be careful getting too bold about proclamations that the low for ETH/Bitcoin is in. It could be, but even if it is, it doesn't mean, you know, it doesn't mean that all altcoins are going to rally immediately with it.
So, what's really interesting is how that forecast played out of of what we said of where a higher low by ETH/Bitcoin would likely be a lower low for all Bitcoin pairs. You have likely a higher low for ETH/Bitcoin forming and at the same time, you had a lower low for all Bitcoin pairs that formed. So, what I think to summarize is that now that Ethereum has dropped 30% and hit the bull market support band, I think it will now rally to all-time highs. Sometimes when you get these drops, you'll see it wick down again the following week, right? Like that can happen. It's not not impossible for for a couple of wicks down. Um, so be prepared, you know, be prepared for something like that. But for me, I have to flip my bias. I have to I have to flip it here and call for new all-time highs. If Bitcoin gets weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, I'll admit I was wrong. I'll pivot and we'll play chess next year and we'll just wait for the bear market to be over. But this is where I have to flip my bias and call for new all-time highs for Ethereum. I hope to see you guys in a few weeks uh with Ethereum in new all-time highs. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. See you guys next time. Bye.