Transcription
Hey everybody, a quick take for you on this Saturday morning as we follow the breaking news. Nicholas Maduro and his wife, uh, removed, captured in a special forces raid by the United States, ousted, uh, from power, uh, from Venezuela and heading to the United States, um, to face the criminal court system. Uh, quite spectacular.
This is something the White House has been talking about for weeks now. Um, and President Trump had given, uh, approval, uh, at least a week ago. Um, the, uh, the question was the window of whether or not they were going to have the ability to remove him cleanly. Uh, they have been working, uh, with CIA assets inside, uh, the military in Venezuela. Um, it was, uh, pretty clear, um, that, uh, they were, um, going to have, uh, lots of, uh, support and that it was, uh, not something they were going to be facing a lot of fighting from the Venezuelan, uh, military.
It looks like, uh, CIA assets grabbed Maduro before the strikes, uh, occurred and then handed him and his wife over, uh, to Delta forces on the ground. You've seen some spectacular explosions. Looks like those were, uh, US strikes of Venezuelan air defense systems allowing the Delta forces to get in. Uh, but there wasn't resistance, um, or apparently a big firefight, um, to get Maduro himself. Um, so, uh, you know, the fact that the United States, uh, was working with people on the inside, uh, clearly makes this a lot easier. Also speaks better for what the initial transition might look like.
Um, you know, you're going to have a military, uh, government. Uh, there's no democratic elections right now in Venezuela. Maduro, of course, uh, refused to accept the outcome of democratic elections that would have brought the opposition, um, in place. Uh, but the United States, um, is not interested in boots on the ground. Uh, they, they want to work with, uh, this transition, uh, government, uh, and I expect, uh, they will be announcing diplomatic engagement efforts to create deals on oil exploitation, uh, as well as, uh, demands, uh, for, uh, a fight against, uh, the Narco cartels. And to the extent that that plays out, um, the question longer term of what a democratic election looks like in Venezuela will be punted down the road.
For now, this is a huge win, uh, for Trump, um, because, uh, he's been able to get rid of Maduro after months of stepped-up military pressure without having to engage in large-scale strikes, uh, against Venezuelan military, um, and, uh, drug cartel assets that would have led to lots of people getting killed, um, and a much messier transition. That certainly is not the case, uh, right now and that means that, uh, both Marco Rubio and others can say that there's no longer threat of military escalation from the United States. So, uh, that's what we're looking at here.
Now, what, what's the, the justification, you know, for all of this? It's, it's not the fact that Maduro is an illegitimate dictator and refused the outcome of an election. Um, that, that is, um, clearly a reason, uh, that it is good that he is gone, but that's not Trump's interest. I mean, Yar Balsinaro is Trump's buddy in Brazil and, and he's, Trump's been threatening the Brazilians because, um, they put him in jail, um, after refusing to accept the outcome of a legitimate election. And Trump himself, of course, refused to accept the outcome of a legitimate election when he lost to Joe Biden, uh, back in 2020. So that's not the issue. Uh, the drugs are, of course, an issue, but, um, you know, Trump also pardoned, um, a, the former leader of Honduras, uh, Hernandez, who was a major, uh, supporter of the drug cartels and, uh, convicted, um, of, uh, having, uh, facilitated the transfer of drugs from Honduras to the United States and he's now walked free. So, I mean, that's obviously, uh, not, uh, the driver.
It's much more about if you are a leader, um, that Trump doesn't like and thinks he can take you out, then he's going to. Um, and, uh, that is why Maduro, uh, is, is gone today. It's the law of the jungle. It is that the United States is the most powerful country in the Western Hemisphere and therefore gets to carry a really big stick, gets to do what it wants. Um, no, it's not like Ukraine and Russia because of course Zelensky was, uh, legitimately, uh, elected and is, uh, supported by his people. Um, also though, the fact that the Russians were militarily incompetent to pull this off and, and that, of course, is a very relevant point here is if the Russians had been more militarily successful, um, Trump's willingness to allow them, um, to get away with that, to afford them successes, would be a lot higher.
And so, um, if you're thinking about the global stage here, China feels like they're in a much stronger position because, uh, this level of impunity coupled with the ability and the willingness to impose, um, outcomes that you want in your backyard. That is the winning combination. The Russians certainly have the desire. They just don't have as much of the ability. And what Trump is showing is that, um, you are in trouble if he doesn't like you and he thinks he can and will take you out. Uh, if I am, uh, running drugs in Colombia today, I'm more concerned. I'm more concerned in Mexico, too. But that also implies that the sovereignty of those governments over their own territory is more vulnerable and that could cause big conflict with the United States going forward.
Um, clearly the statements that have been made by the United States on Iran, um, are more credible in this environment. Trump saying that he's prepared to support Iranian protesters. He'll rescue them if they are, uh, hit hard, if they're shot upon, if they're repressed, uh, by the Iranian government. I certainly expect that the Iranian government will continue to use that capacity. Uh, but the willingness of the United States and its allies, the Israelis, to respond, maybe by targeting Iranian leadership is a much bigger risk today than it was yesterday. And, um, that is something in a Gzero world. Uh, the fact that you don't have, uh, rule of law or international governance or agreement that the most powerful country is also much less reliable, um, by its allies as well as its adversaries. Uh, that is a big, big question.
But for today, uh, it is a big win for Trump. Um, it is, uh, the dictator, uh, being ousted, uh, from Venezuela and, uh, coming to the United States with his wife to face justice. Something that will certainly play out in front of the cameras over the coming months in a midterm election year. That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon. [Music]