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Let's talk with Khun Nilsuwan Prasit, Managing Director of QIQP Investment Institute from Thanachart Securities Public Company Limited. Hello, P' Niphon. >> Hello, Pan. Hello. >> Yes, the investment atmosphere recently seems quite volatile. However, if we look at the Thai stock market, it's moving in the opposite direction of others. What are your thoughts on the atmosphere, P' Niphon? >> We need to separate investment from speculation. Let's be clear first, otherwise, it will be confusing. >> If investment means we have to buy good stocks at a reasonable price. >> Yes. >> Can we buy them? >> Are they too expensive? >> Based on their suitability, it's around 200. >> Ah. >> And if we want to buy them for profit, where did we buy them from? It was 60, recommended 2 years ago. >> Uh-huh. >> And today, is it an investment? Investment means having time as a friend. >> Yes. >> Okay, P' P' first recommends the stocks P' recommended 2 years ago. They include Delta, and also SCB, KTB. If we look back and ask if today is the day to invest in these three stocks. >> Yes. >> It means we have to buy good stocks at a cheap price, at a reasonable price. We recommended KTB at 15 baht, that's investment. But if we are to buy KTB at 35 baht, is that called investment? No. >> Ah, no. Because the investment atmosphere, we must understand that stocks haven't risen for a long time, not the whole market at once. >> They rise by their industry groups. The best performing industry is the one related to AI. In our country, the clearest connection is Delta. Uh-huh. >> Right. Ah, if we ask if we should buy AI stocks, we have to buy AMD at 10 dollars, right? Not buy at 200. >> How many dollars should we buy AMD at? >> Around 60-70 dollars. Today it's 600. >> Uh-huh. >> Therefore, in the market, in each industry group, there is no longer investment. Or you want to buy stocks like SK Hynix. >> Right. Or Sandisk, these. These haven't risen 2 times, 10 times. They've risen 40 times. >> Uh-huh. >> And is that investment? It's not. So we understand that in the market, there is investment, speculation, and gambling. Three things. If you buy stocks in some groups in the stock market, on the day of the incident, on the day of the war, America invades Iran, it's around March 31st, and you buy stocks. You buy Sandisk stocks, you profit 400%. So, investment, is it here? It's not. >> Right. >> Next, there will be stocks that will rise next, which are related to electricity, the power system that will come continuously, AI. But if you go buy Microsoft, buy Nvidia, buy Amazon, they go down, right? But buying Amazon, Nvidia, or Microsoft stocks, it's expected that next year they will rise. So, it means we might be preparing to invest in stocks that have gone down. >> Uh-huh. >> That are AI, like this. The theme of >> There will be the AI theme as the main theme for many years. But there is another theme that is relevant to our country, which is the Health theme. >> Yes. >> And have hospital stocks risen yet? >> They are starting to. >> And can we invest in this? >> Yes. >> Yes, can we? We have to ask first, does investment require buying good stocks at a low price? >> Yes, yes. Is BDB a good stock? >> Yes. >> And is the price low? >> Low. >> And does it meet the conditions? >> Yes. >> Okay, and can we buy it? >> Yes. >> But it doesn't mean it won't go down to 15 baht. >> Ah, but it can be bought. >> Do you understand? >> Ah, I understand. If we understand this, we will understand that the stock market. >> Don't care how much the SET will go down, how much it will adjust. It's irrelevant. >> Yes. >> Let's put it this way. When the SET rose from 1500 to 1200, did you buy stocks in the MI market? And did they rise? >> No. They still haven't risen today, and we don't know if they will rise tomorrow. It's just hope because there's no fundamental basis. The world has changed. They don't play it anymore. If you manipulate it, they will catch you. >> Ah, yes. >> Right? So, the word "investment" has a qualifier: you must buy stocks with good fundamentals. And will you know if it's good or not? Second, after you buy it, what makes the stock rise? There must be money flowing in to buy it. >> Where does the money come from? >> Right? Where does the money come from again? If we ask, has the world's liquidity disappeared yet? No. So, will the market go down? It won't go down, but it's not investment. >> Yes. >> Right? In stocks, some groups are not investments, even the word AI. Do you know AI? You say AI will have a bubble. Do you know AI has a total of 7 steps? >> Uh-huh. >> To finish the AI story, it's a very long way. Meaning, there are steps, phase by phase. AI will have 3 phases. Phase 1 is the Builder phase, building Data Centers for AI. >> Right. This is physical. But AI itself is software. >> Yes. >> Ah, but it's software that requires a lot of data for processing. >> And that data must be real data. And there must be a house for the data. Has the Data Center been built yet? Not yet. Doesn't it need to build the house first? >> When we build the house, do companies selling bricks, stones, cement, steel sell well? >> Yes. >> They sell well. >> Yes. >> But when the house is finished, we have to put AI in it, put the brain in that house. That's AI. >> Uh-huh. >> Right. And do you know if that house will be sold? Not yet certain. >> Not yet certain. >> Ah, so AI is not just ChatGPT, right? >> Yes. >> It's not ChatGPT. Or a human. It's not just a brain system. Suppose we can scan our brains, store them, and put them into robots. It's not a human. Uh-huh. >> So, it must be said with the body and the brain, right? These two parts. Right now, what are we doing? The human world is doing it. Some people say Elon Musk is... >> But from another perspective, it might be a dream. From another perspective, it might be said, are you aware today that the world is getting hotter? One day, in ten billion years, in a billion years, in a trillion trillion trillion years. >> Yes. >> The world will be hot, uninhabitable. >> Uh-huh. >> But someone created SpaceX today. And in 1,000 years, it might be possible for humans to live on Mars. Let's put it this way: if we understand that it depends on how we look, how far we look, how much we look for the benefit of humanity. Otherwise, we will say Elon Musk is a fraud, taking people's money. >> If we ask, what will Elon Musk do with 1 trillion dollars? What will he do? Uh-huh. >> And make him God? Bigger than Trump? And we see rich people in our country go to jail. It's irrelevant. >> I understand. Therefore, just the AI issue, there are people criticizing that there will be an AI bubble. Where will it occur? Where will it occur? And our country, what benefits from it? Longevity. The issue of an aging society. It's hospitals. >> Let's put it this way. >> If you don't have hospitals, you don't have nursing schools. >> Can you set up a center to take care of the elderly? >> No. >> So, who can do it? DMS can. >> Yes. >> Because the price has dropped, is it ready to buy and invest? It means you have to predict. >> Uh-huh. >> It's not just Thailand, the whole world is entering an aging society. >> Yes. >> The first thing is people living abroad whose income is not enough to live abroad. There are many levels. Let's say if there's a foreigner, 70, 80, up to 90 years old, can they live here? With 30 million, living for 10 years, waiting for death. But living abroad is definitely not enough because the expenses are very high. But can they come to live in Thailand? >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Right? >> Because the expenses are much lower. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? So, is it possible that the elderly care centers in Thailand will be successful? Even people who retire at 60 from abroad will move to Thailand because of the cost of living? >> Yes. >> Uh, and if the elderly have money, right? Can this business go forward? >> Yes. >> And how is it going? They are doing it. >> And have people come yet? >> Yes. >> If they come, what happens? Are they ready? With personnel? >> Yes. >> They are currently building the second branch. The first branch is finished, and they are building the second. >> But has the income come yet? >> Uh-huh. >> There are two possibilities: they come or they don't. Like Thonburi Hospital, they did it, and in the end, it ended up being too early. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? BDMS hospitals, do they support Thai people? They do. >> Yes. >> BDMS hospitals support the hospitals, but where does the income come from? Foreigners? >> Oh. >> The main income of BDMS comes from foreign patients, right? >> Yes, yes. So, if they do elderly care, who will they take care of? Who will they support? From foreigners? >> Yes. >> Yes. It's probably not 12,000 baht per month like they set up in Bang Khae. It's a different price. >> Uh-huh. >> Because what they have built is very luxurious. Which I think is not enough for the rich people in the world. If we combine from America, from China, from everything. They say the number of billionaires in China is more than the entire population of Thailand. >> Yes. >> Meaning, it's 10-10 million people. >> And Chinese people are also entering the aging era. >> Right. Ah, America, Europe are also entering. Americans have many rich people. >> Uh-huh. >> So, many people are thinking, should I move to Thailand? Right? So, we need to understand that the industries that are currently running in the world. If Thailand has that stock, we buy it in Thailand. >> Yes. >> But if we want to buy stocks related to AI, can we buy them in Thailand? >> No. >> Yes. >> If we buy, we have to buy through DR. But we buy foreign stocks. >> Ah. >> Right? >> So, we need to know how far this AI has come. Do we have such stocks? >> Uh-huh. >> If we know this, that Delta benefits from electrical equipment in Data Centers, if we knew that then, would we sit and curse Delta? Would we buy Delta at 60 and sell it at over 300? And should we sell it now? Because the electricity, >> Delta's electricity, where is it? In the Data Center. It's gradually ending, right? >> Uh-huh. >> Like if we know that after they build the Data Center, they need CPUs, GPUs, right? Data, for speed. If we know they need RAM. >> Uh-huh. >> They need hard drives, SSDs, etc. They need them. And they use a lot. Ah, would we buy Sandisk stocks? Buy G-related stocks? >> Right. But all of this, when built in large quantities, is there a shortage of electricity? >> Yes. >> Ah, will electricity be short? Will electricity be short of transmission lines? Transformers? What not? Full of everything, right? >> Yes. >> Right? Ah, but if we understand that Data Center is Nvidia, we misunderstand. After the AI phase is finished, it will be Phase 2. >> Phase 2, if you have a Data Center, can you be hacked? Uh-huh. >> Yes. >> Do you need to buy Cyber Security? Buy. >> And is this Phase 2? >> Uh-huh. >> And if the system needs to cross from analog to digital AI, do you need Service Now? It will come to the software era. >> Yes. >> But right now, we see that software stocks are going down. Ah, why don't we start looking? If we know, right? >> If we know, why don't we start looking at these things? Right? >> It means we don't understand. >> We are not confident. >> But we will be confident when the price has already risen. Today, >> we will be gamblers who chase Sandisk stocks at the peak. >> Yes. >> And then say, this is impossible. Let's put it this way. >> Ah, yes. >> One stock. >> Yes. >> Last year, it made a profit of 8 dollars. >> Yes. >> But this year, it made a profit of 66 dollars. >> Ah, yes. >> How many times has it grown? Almost. >> And they produce, they produce memory chips. >> Yes. >> Can they expand their factories 8 times? If they sell at the same price, it means they sell by increasing the price many times, right? >> Yes. >> They didn't produce anything more, but they used the method of increasing prices. >> Uh-huh. >> Ah, why? Because everyone is competing to buy. >> Uh-huh. >> But they haven't built more factories. But if everyone is competing to buy, ah, ah, suppose you buy RAM. Ah, let me ask Pan. >> Yes. >> Have you ever replaced RAM in a broken computer? >> Never. >> Never. >> Ah. >> Right? >> Yes. >> So, does it mean they only sell once? This time, when everyone has used it, suppose the center breaks down. >> Yes. >> Will they only replace the RAM? They have to replace the whole unit, right? They have to replace the whole unit. >> Right? >> Right? >> Yes. >> The motherboard breaks, right? >> Right. >> So, we need to understand that the benefit of these memory chips today, which are rising sharply, comes from price increases. >> It's like rubber gloves during COVID. >> And why didn't the price of rubber gloves rise? Did the factories expand? >> Yes. >> There's no stock where profits grow like a factory. And profits grow 10 times? Not 10 times at all. From 6 dollars. >> From 6 dollars to >> From 8 dollars to 66 dollars. >> Building factories in time is impossible. >> Yes. >> But you don't have to fly to see it. We can deduce that they profit from selling goods that people want to buy a lot, and they are concentrated. >> Yes. >> And do you know that those who buy these, who need to buy Microsoft, whatever, they have to buy memory chips. Right? What do you think Pan does when they have to buy expensive goods? Uh-huh. >> Because they are the ones who know the information that they will need a lot of these. They will have to sign contracts to lock in goods with Sandisk, the chip company, right? >> Uh-huh. >> If I were Pan, what would I do? Because I have no choice. Microsoft, Google, this person, that person. Everyone is building Data Centers. Oracle is doing it, Meta is doing it. >> Yes. >> What's the only way Pan can solve it? >> Whoever pays more. >> The goods have increased 4 times, but the stock has increased 100 times. >> So, Pan, if I were the owner of Microsoft, I would have to buy Sandisk stocks. >> Ah, to profit with them too. >> Ah, and it rises abnormally. And will those who operate Data Centers go bankrupt? Why don't they go bankrupt? >> Because they buy stocks in these. Because they have no choice. But do they have money? >> They have money to look at these companies. Free cash is everywhere. >> Yes. >> But those who are harmed are the retail investors from Thailand who are playing there now, they will go bankrupt. >> It's you buying good stocks temporarily. >> At the wrong price. >> Uh-huh. >> We ask P', when will it go down? I don't know. I don't know. >> Ah, yes. >> I know that if a factory expands its production, that factory will pass. >> Uh-huh. >> Meaning, if we know this and are confident, we can say, okay, let's gradually sell those stocks. >> Yes. >> There will be, there will be more after this. It will be about water, about electricity, clean energy, and many other things that will come to support this. >> Right. >> Uh-huh. >> And we ask, many people say it will collapse. Some compare it to the year 2000. It's a different story. >> Uh-huh. >> Some say AI is electricity. No, AI is the brain. >> Yes. >> Do you use AI? Do you know it's smarter than us all? >> Yes. >> It's just that when we ask it, are we stupid? That's all. There are people dumber than AI. >> You don't know how to use AI, but you're so bold as to take a course on AI. Pan, do you think that's stupid? It's stupid because if you want to use it, just ask it to teach you. Ah, yes. >> We want to be a super-level AI user, a superstar. Please teach me how to use it. >> It's just being ready, and that's it. >> Ah. >> P' also wonders why there needs to be a budget for people to learn AI. >> P' is very confused. >> Ah, yes. >> Right? >> Ask and answer it, and it will teach you. >> Download the course, put the code in, and then say, "Do everything for me." >> Get all the programs into my portfolio so I can do this kind of work. It can do it all. >> Ah, yes. >> Yes. And if it can do this, can it create productivity for the whole world? >> Yes. >> Ah, and why would it collapse? >> Uh-huh. >> We will collapse. We will have no jobs. >> Yes. >> What will collapse? Our hearts will collapse because we become unimportant. >> Uh-huh. >> Is it deserved? See? Ah, so, to summarize, the topic is: are we on the right global theme? If so, our country has a connection, which is AI, related to Data Centers. >> Yes. >> Maybe not the best, but if you think about it, there's Advance, right? >> Uh-huh. >> There's electricity, right? What's the main electricity? >> It's GAF, right? And GAF has a project to build Data Centers for its partners, similar to >> Yes. >> Google and >> Uh-huh. >> If I remember correctly, it's Google and Microsoft, and Amazon. I don't know how much. See? >> Our country also has these. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> And we see that the stocks that have risen here, mainly, are these stocks. >> Uh-huh. >> But another sector is banking. If we ask, is banking good? Yes, it pays good dividends. But at what price do you buy? You have to buy in 2020, right? >> Yes. >> It's not buying a good stock, but the price has already risen. So, let's exclude banking. You can't buy, but you can hold. >> Uh-huh. >> The topic is, where is the hidden gem? Opportunities in a correcting market. Uh-huh. >> It means you don't have to look at the market. Look at many stocks. >> Yes. >> You have to look at many stocks. You don't have to look at the market. The market is distorted by data. >> Today, a broker just gave Delta a price of 265. >> I think 265 is still too expensive compared to global semiconductor stocks. It's too expensive. >> Ah, yes. >> It's too expensive, but I can't say whether it will go down or not. Because today, what has risen is also due to Delta. And there's data analysis. If you look, foreigners have given prices exceeding 400. >> It depends on their thinking. Everyone thinks differently. What do you think? My opinion is that stocks worldwide have risen a lot. >> Uh-huh. >> Like I said, sell gold at 5,400. I said it had risen a lot. >> Yes. >> Now it's down to 4,000. >> Yes. >> Is it true? Yes. >> Yes. >> If Pan followed me on oil, I said oil at 120 dollars was the peak. It's down to 60 dollars. I also >> 69. >> Okay. >> Yes. >> Is it true? Yes. >> Yes. >> It's not that I'm smart. There are things that tell us. >> Uh-huh. >> But what makes us go astray is this. P' asks everyone: those interested in news and relate news to gold. >> Yes. >> Over the holiday, there was fighting between America. >> Uh. >> And Iran. Ask yourself, do you think gold will definitely crash this morning when it opens? >> Uh, I thought so. Will it go down? >> Everyone, everyone believes. But I said, I said, >> On March 31st, I said to buy stocks. I said the war is over. >> What affects the market is the concern about oil prices. >> It's not concern about the war. This Middle East region has been like this since before we were born. >> And it will continue, and it won't stop. >> Yes. >> It won't stop. Ah, so why is the war not of interest today? But why do we care? Because we misunderstand. >> At first, we understood that there was a war, so gold would rise. So we chased gold at 5,400. Then we changed the theory, saying, oh, if the war ends, gold will probably rise, right? So you bought gold at 4,500, and it went down to 4,000. Uh-huh. >> You're starting to get confused. Because gold doesn't rise or fall for just one factor. There are 18 factors that make gold rise and fall. >> And will you know today which factor affects it? >> Ah, does the yield affect the price of gold? >> Yes. >> Not the yield, not the bond. >> Ah, yes. >> Does inflation affect the price of gold? >> Yes. >> Does it affect it? It's not just affected. You have to look at two things. >> Uh-huh. >> Take the two things and subtract them: real yield. >> Oh, oh, oh. >> It's not the yield. You don't look at inflation. You don't know how to look. >> Ah. >> And which inflation? Do you look at CPI? They don't look at that. >> You're looking wrong. >> PCE. >> Uh-huh. >> Don't look at PCE. >> Which one do you look at? >> You look at the Fed's expected inflation. The Fed has its own inflation, it's irrelevant. >> Ah, yes. >> So, are we all "mountain dwellers" in the country? >> Uh-huh. >> Meaning, we don't know how to look. P' should train reporters on this. It would be good to know, so they don't go. Register now. Let's do it. First person. >> Ah, okay. >> Reporter's style. Khun Kiat likes to explain why stocks rise, why they fall, why gold rises. >> Yes. Uh-huh. >> And are they responsible? And it's not true. >> Yes. >> Uh-huh. >> It's fun, but people are harmed. Ah, yes. >> But people are harmed. >> Yes. >> Uh-huh. >> Gold doesn't rise for just one reason. >> Uh-huh. >> Gold is still a fear asset. >> Yes. >> Right? >> But gold has no fundamental factors. >> Uh-huh. >> Like Bitcoin. But gold has factors that affect it and create confidence and erode confidence. Gold will have >> an impact when people lack confidence, no matter what. >> Oh. >> It's a matter of belief. >> Yes. >> But stocks have fundamental factors. What are the fundamental factors of stocks? The ability to make profits increase and decrease. >> Oh, uh-huh. >> That's the fundamental factor. There's the word "factor" and "fundamental factor." >> Yes. >> Please note. Most people make mistakes by listening to macroeconomics and applying it to stocks. >> Uh-huh. >> It's irrelevant. It's irrelevant. >> Yes. >> If you look at the Thai economy, GDP doesn't grow, so you wouldn't dare buy from 60. You wouldn't dare buy GAF, which P' recommended at 47, because the Thai economy isn't growing. Because you look at macroeconomics and you don't know how to use it, right? This is the era of news everywhere. >> Yes. >> First, you don't know what's true or false. Second, even if it's true, you don't know how to use it. It's a mess everywhere in the market. In summary, where are the hidden gems? >> Yes. >> First, look at the theme. Is that theme a global theme? >> Ah, yes. >> Can you force people to get old? >> No. >> People get sick, people get hurt. Will you live long or not? Will you die soon? Therefore, the theme of hospitals, the theme of medicine, etc., is it in the global theme for the next 10-20 years? Do you think in the next 20 years, the elderly in the world will be more than young people and children? Uh-huh. >> Right? >> It doesn't have to be that many. >> China is already entering it, following us. >> Ah, yes. >> Yes, the elderly are following. >> Therefore, this theme is the theme of hospitals and the theme of elderly care centers. >> Uh-huh. >> Our country only gets this much. >> Yes. >> But if you are rich and take one pill, and it cures cancer, etc. >> Uh-huh. >> A pill that costs 10 million. It will happen. >> Yes. >> Yes, these will be the themes. So, are you in this theme? If you are in this theme, it means you are on the right track. Which stock? >> Uh-huh. >> And in which country is that stock? Uh-huh. >> If there's DR, buy it through DR in Thailand. >> Yes. >> Buy it where we buy it, buy it in Thailand. Don't buy it abroad because it's a loss. >> You have to pay taxes when you bring money back. >> Uh-huh. >> So, this is the global theme. Look at it correctly. The next theme is water. >> The theme of water. >> Right? >> Let's put it this way. Saudi Arabia has no water to use, right? They have to use seawater, right? >> Yes. >> And how long can it last? >> Uh-huh. >> Ah, when they bring seawater up, do they have to return saltier water to the sea? >> Yes. >> And will the sea get saltier and saltier? >> Therefore, water is a major problem for humanity. >> Yes. >> Okay, soon in our country, if there's El Niño, there will be water problems for durian farmers worldwide and in the country. >> Yes. >> They say that after the durian season, the rain will fall well. >> Yes. >> But from now on, for the next 8 months, the water will decrease. Uh-huh. >> Right? And there's a plant that uses a lot of water consistently, which is durian. Be careful, next year durian will be expensive. >> Uh-huh. >> See? >> Uh-huh. >> Water is important. And water in the cooling system of AI is also important. >> Yes. >> The water we drink is also important. >> Uh-huh. >> Therefore, if you look far ahead, the next theme is water. >> Yes. >> Humans will have problems with water. >> Uh-huh. >> We don't use a lot, but the cooling system of Data Centers uses a lot. Ah, water, electricity. These are important. This is a global theme. A global theme that will keep coming. >> Yes. >> Does Thailand have power plants? >> Yes. >> Can foreigners build power plants in our country? >> No. >> Uh-huh. >> We are not liberalized. >> Yes. >> Do we have companies that make power plants? Which companies? GAF. Power plants. Are they clean energy power plants? Right? >> Ah, keep thinking, keep thinking. And go back to see if we have it in our country, or if there's DR in our country. >> Yes. >> Yes. >> Right? Large power plants in North America also have DRs in our stock market. Uh-huh. >> And the price probably hasn't risen much yet. So, we can find hidden good, cheap things if we understand this theme. >> Uh-huh. >> But you have to invest. >> Yes. >> It's not that you buy DMS, it goes down to 15, and then you curse me. It's not that you don't understand investment. >> Yes. >> Right? >> You have to use time as a friend. Ah, yes. >> Right? Like when P' recommended buying NBD or AI stocks, P' said P' was the first person in Thailand to recommend buying DRs abroad. >> Uh-huh. >> And now there are over a hundred DRs in our country. >> Uh-huh. >> There are many hidden ones. It's not time yet. >> But it's important. >> Don't ask which one. >> Yes. >> It's important that if you know which one, and you understand investment, can you distinguish? Is this investment? You buy DMS at 18 baht. >> Yes. >> It goes down to 12 baht. Is it a loss? >> Yes. >> Loss. >> Loss. >> Ah, but those who bought at 3-4. >> Did they buy wrong? It's wrong. They bought good stocks at expensive prices. >> Ah, yes. >> Now, who is cheering to buy DBS? Does anyone buy it? No. >> No. >> Are you afraid? Are you afraid? You'll ask, how far will it go? When will it go down? No one knows. >> Ah, yes. >> Professor, do you look at the banking sector for 10 years? It depends on where you are. We don't look at it by year. How many years? >> How many years will cause you losses? >> If it breaks 10, you sell and it's over. >> Uh-huh. >> Right? >> Let me explain the banking sector. Why has the banking sector in Thailand risen? >> Yes. >> Thailand is the first country in the world. >> That >> economic growth. >> doesn't pass the trap. They call it the trap. >> Poverty. >> Uh-huh. >> It doesn't pass. But why are Thai banks good? >> Because we have a lot of foreign exchange reserves from the pain we suffered in 1997. Therefore, our banking system provides loans stably. Second, in 1997, banks collapsed because at that time, the market, the bond market. >> Uh-huh. >> It was very small then. It was very small. >> Now, our bond market has grown to be about the same size as the stock market. >> Uh-huh. The bond market means banks are not the ones lending money. We lend directly to companies. Uh-huh. >> Therefore, banks are strong.
Here is the translation of the provided Thai text into English, following your rules:
There are two things, right? Taking fees and issuing loans. The second thing is lending only to specific entities. Important: No lending without collateral. No lending. No collateral, no lending. This benefits the bank because our country has a large amount of foreign reserves. What does that mean? Financially, the position is very stable. Uh-huh. It means there is a lot of liquidity. Therefore, the bank can pay high dividends. Uh-huh. Because the bank did not suffer like in '97, when banks suffered from bad loans, with 74% of loans becoming non-performing in '97. Banks went bankrupt, a total of 1.4 trillion. This means commercial banks could not repay depositors 1.4 trillion. Yes. And now we are still paying off the debt by issuing government bonds to pay off the debt. Currently, there is still 7-8 billion outstanding. Therefore, banks are stable. I will explain further that there is a new theory that bank stocks globally have never paid such high dividends anywhere in the world. Uh-huh. Because there was a country, even a country that has passed the poverty trap, like France. It grew in Europe, grew up. France has fewer foreign reserves than Thailand. Yes. But while France's economy is 6 times larger than ours, it has reserves equal to ours. Do you see? This means our banking group might be a new theory. Uh-huh. It keeps going like this, the interest rate spread. Because there is liquidity, this term "liquidity" does not cause the country to collapse. If we have liquidity, but if we only have hard assets, and we lack that liquidity, when will it happen? We have a chance of collapse. Second, Thailand. In itself, we are creditors to the world. Yes. Thailand is not a debtor. Net, we are creditors to the world. Yes. This is strength. Therefore, banks should also be strong. Uh-huh. But banks must change their business. It's not just taking deposits and lending. That's over. Therefore, banks must transform themselves like JP Morgan. It might have to be a foreign business. In JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, the deposit-taking and lending business accounts for only 20% of revenue. The other 80% comes from 5 departments, 5 divisions, generating more revenue than the business. Therefore, which of our banks has adapted? KBANK. Uh-huh. Right? SCB. Yes. Which has changed. What about other banks? What will other banks do if you don't change, don't adapt? They are adapting. No, they merge with those who have adapted. That's it. We merge all banks into one bank in Thailand. Uh-huh. It's still much smaller than JP Morgan. Yes. Do you understand? Therefore, banks are stable. They are stable because they have never made mistakes like in '97. Yes. They have always done things correctly. Uh-huh. Now, where is Thai land located? What is it called? The Golden Axe. Yes. Has the price ever gone down? Never down. Yes. Right? Yes. Is our infrastructure ready? Have you been to Europe? Europe is too hot. How is Europe's internet? It's okay sometimes. The infrastructure is not good. Our system. Does every house have air conditioning? Yes. Europe only has air conditioning in 20%. Uh-huh. Their structure cannot install air conditioning. Uh-huh. Therefore, it cannot be installed, and their electricity bills are high. Uh-huh. Right? Therefore, our structure. Thailand is one of the top 3 countries in the world with the best internet. Uh-huh. Second, there is no need to fear heatwaves. Yes. Because every house has air conditioning. Because we have air conditioning. Uh-huh. See, China is even better than us. China's air conditioning is like this. It can be both air conditioning. Uh-huh. Do you see the infrastructure of developing countries? Yes. It's not that Europe is bad. They are old countries. Uh-huh. Therefore, their infrastructure, their internet is still copper, and it's fiber optic. Yes. See, this is what indicates that Asia will improve. Uh-huh. But it doesn't mean Thai people will improve. Uh-huh. It means anyone with ability can improve. Yes. Try to understand these things. If you ask me now, do you have stocks? You must understand the global theme and then find stocks. Uh-huh. How to find them? Don't ask brokers. Don't ask analysts. Ask AI. Yes. But you must understand. Because mostly, we understand and become confident only when the price has already moved. Uh-huh. Why? Because of the culture of having a stock market for 40-50 years, we have never created investors. Uh-huh. We create profit-takers, gamblers in the stock market. Like today, there are still people recommending buying this stock, buying that stock everywhere. That is not investment. It's not called investment. Investment is buying good stocks at a fair price. Are there any today? Yes, BDMS. But you don't buy it. You go buy CHG. Uh-huh. Buy what you're confident in. Right? CHG is speculation. Uh-huh. Understand? It's speculation. It's not that every hospital stock is good. You have to look at what they have. Do they have a New Health Curve? Yes. Uh-huh. Right? And do they have social security? BDMS does not have social security. Uh-huh. Yes. See, you have to choose a hospital. Choosing a hospital means choosing correctly. They must have a New Service. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. They ask if BDMS can go forward. We will eat all of this. All these things are up to us. We are very prominent in this. In the era of 2030-2035, Thailand will be praised. Praised as a prominent country in this area. It will be a success. Yes. Now, which hospital stock to buy? There is only one, BDMS. Yes. So, if we change our habits and say from now on we will not buy speculative stocks, we will buy the right stocks and wait for at least 10 years. Uh-huh. Do you know how many years you have to wait to see the success of SpaceX? Uh-huh. Many. 200 years? Or hundreds of years? Hundreds of years? But is there a chance? Boom, boom, boom, all the time. They don't boom anymore. They don't boom anymore. That's not SpaceX. That's another company. That's Elon Musk's. Different companies. There are two companies. This is irrelevant. Irrelevant. SpaceX is okay. Uh-huh. This is directly on topic. You asked about bank stocks. They are okay. But you have to see that if it breaks the color, you sell first. Because. Let me ask Pan. If there is a crisis. The Dow Jones drops 30%, the Nasdaq drops 30%. Yes. Does the SET drop? Does the SET drop? Don't say no. The other day, Delta dropped, and everyone panicked and sold, even though it had nothing to do with Delta. They sold everything. They panicked and sold. Yes. They panicked and sold because we play according to sentiment. Yes. Like today, ask yourself, do you want to buy stocks? Yes. Want to. And on Friday? Don't want to. Don't buy. If I knew this, I should have bought Delta, right? Uh-huh. If you knew that today the stock market is up because it's futures closing day. Uh-huh. That's all. Closing accounts. It's the last day for futures settlement. Therefore. The best is today. When Delta went up first thing in the morning, others followed. Wow, the SET went up a lot. See? Uh-huh. Tomorrow will be sad. Settlement day. Yes. Yes. And then it will say that if the picture is like this, Thai stocks will not go down, but are you buying the right stocks? Uh-huh. And the hospital group. The timeframe has just started its first month. Yes. Uh-huh. It has gone up, but it's not yet a big bull market as you understand. Yes. Because I told you that BDMS's new business. It hasn't made money yet. It takes 10 years. It hasn't made a profit yet. Uh-huh. It makes a profit, but they have already done it. Yes. They have already done it, and they are not losing money. Yes. This means that anyone who goes into the elderly care business alone will fail. But if you have an existing business base, you can continue. Uh-huh. SpaceX, if they only did space, they would fail. Yes. But why doesn't SpaceX fail? It has Starlink. Uh-huh. It has Starlink as a base. They won't fail. But is the stock price expensive? You have to think about that yourself. I don't know. I can't answer. PE is still zero. There is only PS, about PS. Price to Sales ratio is now about 90 times. Yes. Oh. It's 66 times. Yes. High is very high, right? Very high. We'll talk about that. But in another 20 years, don't forget, they might go to the moon in 2 days. I don't know. They might go to Mars. No one knows. Yes. What about gold? Professor, will the declining birth rate affect consumption? Don't ask. Before the declining birth rate, AI is coming to work. Where will people come from? Don't talk about declining birth rates. Those who are born now, the consumption today, with household debt full of debt. Yes. What will they consume? Don't think about it. That's normal. Fewer people means less consumption. Consumption will be less. Yes. It's hard to even have children. Professor Nikhom, I don't think about the housing and condo sector yet. Yes. The cycle has ended for 10 years. Oh. This sector doesn't need to be looked at. But department stores can still be looked at. Uh-huh. Department stores today, Pan. They are not like Central 30 years ago, where they opened a shop and people came to buy things like a department store. Uh-huh. Central today is doing real estate. One part is doing it. They sell and rent out. That is the department store. Why aren't department stores failing? Uh-huh. Because it's a hot country. Uh-huh. Yes. It's a department store in a hot country. And when you go into each Central department store, or The Mall, how much of it is actually The Mall? Outside of that, it's all retail space. Yes. It's retail space that they sell to others to rent, or they rent it out to others. Yes. Right? Yes. So department stores can still go on. Which department stores? You have to look at which department stores. And these department stores have changed. Each department store when they build. Central has this. Yes. It has condos for sale. Condos, yes. It has condos, it has offices. It's like a city. They are building a city. Yes. But that's Central Pattana. CPN. Uh-huh. Yes. And Central also has another part, which is hotels, also a rental business. Yes. But you have to see who is doing it. Is it in the name of Central, or in the name of a private family? But it's all called Central. Uh-huh. And there is retail. We have to distinguish where we are entering Central. Yes. Which Central? Uh-huh. Now, this would be the sector if it's real estate. Uh-huh. It would be this side. But for residential condos, it's over in Thailand. Because you asked about birth rates. And think about it, who will have the money to buy? It's over. What is the starting salary for a new graduate? Uh-huh. How can they buy a house? Yes. A 10 million baht house. How to pay it off? 10 million baht, 15,000 baht per month. How to pay off a 10 million baht house? You can't. Yes. Even if you open it up for foreigners to buy, and everything else. Let me tell you, real estate companies that sell houses have already made a lot. Uh-huh. They made it from before 1997. They have been making it for 20 years. They have made a lot. Yes. Therefore, these stocks have not gone up for a long time. They will focus on paying dividends, paying dividends without looking at the stock price. Yes. So, what to do if you are stuck? Sell. And change sectors. Uh-huh. Don't invest in the old way with hope and think that inflation is coming, so you must buy real estate to hedge against inflation. Stop believing these things. It's not there. When the business is good, anything goes up. Anything goes up because sales are growing. Backlog is large. Demand is high. It has changed from single houses to selling empty land, building single houses with land. Then building single houses separately from the land, and then to condos. And condos are the last boom point because of the electric train. Uh-huh. And the last electric train line will be finished. Where to go next? This is how to look at real estate. It follows supply and demand. And when condos are finished, where to go? It's finished. Yes. And the electric trains in Bangkok. Where will you go? It's finished. The electric trains in Bangkok are almost all lines. The gray line, the other lines, they are finished. Uh-huh. There are no more. Therefore, you will see that these condos are built along the orange electric train line, two towers. But it's residential now. You can't do anything else. Because these electric trains run into community areas. Yes. Where the land is expensive. Uh-huh. Yes. And can it be combined? Can townhouses be combined to build? It will be in pockets. It's not an opportunity for the real estate group anymore. Uh-huh. This is a definite prediction. Yes. Do you have any other questions? What about gold? A moment ago, gold. Uh-huh. Gold is what kind of gold? Gold bars or gold futures? There are two types. You need to be clear. Let's say you want to invest long-term. Better. Okay, long-term investment in gold bars means you have to look at the current interest rate. Yes. The interest rate I'm talking about is high. Yes. When gold was at 1,200, now it's 5,000, 4,000. The yield was 1, or negative. When the yield went up, the yield went up because of interest rates. Interest rates went up, yields went up. Yes. Inflation hasn't gone up yet. The yield is even higher. Yes. At that point, gold also rose sharply. When it's high, it can't go any higher. Uh-huh. The yield cannot go any higher. When it goes higher, it explodes. It explodes. Yes. There are two possibilities. It can go down only when America reduces interest rates. The Fed reduces interest rates. Yes. Inflation might not go down, but the yield will. Do you understand? Because reducing interest rates means interest rates go down. Interest goes down. Discount goes down. Everything goes down. Can this happen? So, from now until the end of the year, there is no chance of the Fed reducing interest rates. Why the Fed? Why not China? Why not the Bank of England? Because we use dollars. Dollars account for over 60%. Of assets, it's a major currency. Uh-huh. Therefore, the impact of the dollar is felt everywhere. For investors, funds, etc., it's related to this first. If you want to invest, you must understand this point well. Uh-huh. Understand the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond well. Yes. If you don't understand well, you will miss everything. Uh-huh. When it's high, when the yield goes down, it can go down in two ways. Collapse. Yes. The economy collapses. Collapse, then interest rates must be reduced. Last time, when it opened in 2007, it was reduced to 0. Do you understand? Yes. That's when gold will rise. Uh-huh. So, gold in this period until before. Gold can rise slightly when the yield goes down. The fastest yield decrease. The best yield decrease is when inflation goes down. Look carefully. When inflation goes down, it means the yield minus inflation goes down. But the yield stays the same. Suppose it's 4.5, 5, and inflation goes from 2 down to 1. Uh-huh. From 3 down to 2. This means the yield will go down like this, and gold will rise, but not strongly. Uh-huh. Because if this happens, US interest rates can only go down to 3%. They cannot go lower. It's called a soft landing. Therefore, gold will not be able to rise much. Yes. But if it goes on for a long, long time, and it turns out that interest rates cannot go down, and inflation does not go down, then it will collapse. Uh-huh. This will collapse. Therefore, when America reduces interest rates, the yield goes down, everything collapses. Gold goes down, stocks go down, oil goes down, everything goes down. If that happens, it's not a collapse. What does collapse mean? It means the dollar collapses. The dollar collapses, everyone collapses. Yes. They collapse together. Uh-huh. They collapse together. There is a 15% chance of gradual collapse. There is a 45% chance. Yes. No more than 50%. So, I can't say. But the chance of a soft landing is about 45%. This means we will encounter a difficult situation. You don't need to cheer for a world war for gold to rise. If there is a world war, gold will fall. It's irrelevant. You've learned your lesson. America is fighting. You say that. Uh-huh. The main factor. Understand this well. This is for gold bars. Therefore, if we answer this question, we see that gold will not rise, but it will not fall either. Yes. Because of new factors that have never existed before. In 2007, central banks around the world bought gold as foreign reserves. Yes. And reduced the dollar. So that gold, which was about 3 trillion dollars, is now 37 trillion dollars as foreign reserves. Do you think? Uh-huh. Will central banks worldwide allow gold to fall? No. They won't. They won't let it go up, but they will gradually support it. There is buying pressure. It keeps coming. Yes. Therefore, gold. Its price. Correct. It can fall to any low level, but it's a buy. Yes. But if it's gold futures today, it means you have to short it since last Friday. Uh-huh. And you wait to close. And you wait to close. Close 1. I'm looking at the system. This system says it's in the middle. In the middle of falling from 4,985 last Friday. Yes. It still has more potential to go down than up. This is gold futures. Uh-huh. And when it goes down. Listen for when it breaks 4,000. Try to go against it. Just go against it. That's where you should go. The system will tell you when to go. But I can't guide you 24 hours a day because I won't sleep. Yes. This is also important. So, Gold Futures is short-term trading. Yes. 100 dollars, 100 dollars, 100 dollars, 50 dollars. If it breaks 4,000, go all in. If it breaks 4,000, bet on it going down to 3,900, add more. Uh-huh. Because it's like that. It doesn't say it will go down to 3,500 or anything. Uh-huh. It doesn't mean America will raise interest rates. Another thing that will happen. If interest rates rise, America will be the only one to collapse. Yes. Others will be like, you go ahead. It doesn't concern me. America will collapse alone if interest rates rise. Uh-huh. Therefore, US stocks will fall alone. Yes. America won't do it. America won't do it. America knows that if interest rates rise, it will collapse alone. Uh-huh. Therefore, they won't do it. Therefore, interest rate hikes will not happen. Uh-huh. There will only be reductions. When will reductions happen? That's all. Uh-huh. Yes. This is gold. It's short-term trading. Yes. We started shorting from the 4,000 zone and closed it. And we are holding shorts. Yes. And we are waiting to close, waiting to close shorts. Uh-huh. This event will happen tonight. Uh-huh. Don't look now. It's meaningless. Nothing is happening. Where will gold go now? Go to sleep. Go exercise. Do something else. Don't stare at it. At 7 PM tonight, come back to the screen. Uh-huh. This short-term trading style requires watching the screen. And when the time comes. Uh-huh. If you can read the system, read the system. If you can't, don't play. Uh-huh. It's not about the price. I'm telling you this. It's not about the price. Yes. Uh-huh. The price is the destination, but you must be able to read buy signals. If you can't read buy signals, quit playing. How much have you lost if you listen to the news? Quit playing. Uh-huh. Have you lost 10 million, 20 million yet? If you want to play gold futures, don't listen to the news at all. Don't look for reasons why it goes up or down. If you look for reasons, you will fail. Uh-huh. Why? Yes. The factors that are tested. They are deceiving us. 10-18 factors. They are not deceiving us. No one knows for sure. Uh-huh. Just now, I asked Pan. Pan doesn't know if he's not looking at bond yields, not looking at inflation. Pan is guessing himself. Yes. Uh-huh. But it's for playing with gold bars, not futures. Uh-huh. Yes. Okay. That's why I say whoever explains gold, I will clarify which gold. Yes. Gold bars, buy them. Because buying gold bars is like buying something that is a store of value. Uh-huh. At 5,400, you want to buy. At 4,000, you don't dare to buy. Uh-huh. BDMS 34. You bought it fully. You didn't buy at 18. Even though the business isn't failing, you didn't buy. Yes. And you say you are an investor, but investors have to wait for the price to go up. Investors don't look at price. They look at value. Yes. Uh-huh. Buy when it's cheap. If your portfolio is large, one stock should not exceed 10%, 6%. Yes. Oh, I listened to Professor Nipon that day. Talking to Pan, I put 100% of my portfolio into BDMS. Oh, I'm going to lose. Oh. Come today. Come today. Gradually exit. Okay, like this. Yes. Like this, I will explain. When you play stocks yourself, is it like you are a mutual fund? Uh-huh. And when mutual funds arrange funds, they look at some clients' portfolios with 50 stocks. It's a SET 50 fund. Do you have to manage and know every stock? You must. Yes. But you listen to me. How can you manage your portfolio yourself? If you want to manage your portfolio yourself, you must have knowledge of the fundamentals of every stock. Know when to adjust the portfolio every month. Uh-huh. Know which stock to adjust, which to remove, which to add. And you have to do it every 3 months. You must have a system to do it because you are a mutual fund. Your portfolio at the broker, you must make it a mutual fund system. Uh-huh. And after doing it, if it performs less than the index, it means you lost. Yes. So, you buy a SET 50 fund. Do you have one? I don't know. I don't know if there is one. It wins. So why play by yourself? Playing by yourself must win. It must win against funds. If playing by yourself doesn't win against funds, let them invest for you. Let them do it for you. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. But do we have them? Do we have any funds? I think there are some. They tricked people into tax deductions. Finally, LTF lost money nationwide. Uh-huh. The principle of buying a fund is this. Yes. When you buy stocks, do you want the price to go up? You want a higher return, right? Right? Yes. But you buy a fund for tax deductions. What do you want? You want to save taxes. But you don't consider whether in 5 years it will go up or down. Uh-huh. So who is wrong? Who is wrong? Who is wrong? You answered the objective. You answered the objective. But you are wrong if you want to buy. If you buy a tax-deductible fund, you must consider whether stocks will go up or down in 5 years when it matures. Yes. Uh-huh. I don't know either. Yes. Uh-huh. I don't know either. Yes. But in 5 years, I think. Uh-huh. Stocks will likely bottom out and start to rise in 2035. Yes. Right? Uh-huh. Yes. I see it this way. I see that the year 28 is a good year to buy stocks. 28-29 is a good year to buy stocks. Uh-huh. Yes. What stocks? What stocks? Like when the year 2000 happened, I wish I had bought Amazon. Uh-huh. Right? Yes. I wish I had bought Google. I wish I had bought Microsoft. This will be a similar feeling. Yes. That in 28-29, which stocks to buy. You have to read the fundamentals thoroughly. I'm telling you the truth, I don't know. But I can tell you that if you have Google, Amazon, Microsoft, these are going down. Uh-huh. They are going down. Yes. But the stocks that will endure are not at this price. They are SML and TSMC. Uh-huh. These will endure. But it doesn't mean they will drop 30%, 40%. But they will have to produce chips, right? Uh-huh. They have to produce chips. They have to do it. They cannot stop. Right? So there will be these two. But not at this price. I think TFC and SL around here, you should gradually sell. Yes. And it might go down. It might be the one that goes down less than others. But those that have already gone down. Microsoft has gone down. Amazon has gone down. Google has gone down. But going down means it's not the bottom as expected in 2028. Yes. Because in 2027, these will rise first. Uh-huh. So, Microsoft, Google, Amazon will be the ones to make US stocks rise next year. Yes. But after that, they will be the ones to go down, causing the 2028 bottom for buying stocks. Yes. It will be another cycle. And then. Uh-huh. Why will they rise? The prices have already risen. Microsoft has risen. Uh-huh. Apple has risen. They have all risen. They have all started to rise. It's good, but what we are using, they are not calculating inflation. Uh-huh. But actually, the inflation calculation system needs to be changed. Yes. Right? Everyone has access to computers. Everyone has access to mobile phones. But the system of calculating inflation. Including goods. It's important now. Do you see that the economic system is an old way? Uh-huh. It's difficult to use. The theory is very difficult to use. The theory of employment is also the same. You still think the same way. How many people are employed, how many are unemployed. You still think the same way. But actually, you have to think, how many robots have entered? How many people have been replaced by robots? A car factory used to have 50% people. Today, there are 0% people. How do you think about that? How do you calculate that? Do you have to put robots into consumption or investment? Because when robots are introduced, it's investment. It's an "I" item, right? Yes. And then there are no people to consume. How will GDP rise? GDP needs to be rethought. Yes. Do you understand? The production system, GDP. It turns out that the money transferred to consumption. The government, if it manages it, gives money away. Yes. The economic system needs to be rewritten entirely. Uh-huh. Whether AI will create a bubble or not. In the end. AI will replace everything in the world. Uh-huh. Definitely. Uh-huh. Yes. So you have a picture. So that viewers can allocate their portfolios and adjust their investment thinking. And today, in this clip, there are many hidden investment opportunities. That Brother Nil has provided. Some are spoilers. Some are direct targets. So that viewers can invest. My clients in my QQP system are gradually reducing their investment portfolios. Yes. Oh, okay. Because we say that stocks will go down for another 2 years. But you should start reducing your investment portfolio from today. Is it fast? Is it long? Yes. Is it in advance? It's quite long. Yes. It's not preparation. Because retail investors sell and are gone. Yes. But prepare your mind. Prepare your mind. And prove it. Oh, it's true. It's true. The more you play, the more you lose. The more you play, the more you lose. Step back first. Withdraw first. Bad stocks. MAI stocks. Anyone who cheers for them, sell them all. Rebalance your portfolio. Understand. Playing MAI stocks for 20 years, all failed. Quit. Change everything. Return to reality. That is investment. If you want to trade, trade gold. Uh-huh. Trade gold with a system. Yes. Not trading gold based on news, based on fundamentals. You will fail. It's not like that. Uh-huh. Yes. Today's clip is knowledge. So that viewers can plan and allocate their investment portfolios. Today, thank you Brother Nipon. Goodbye. Goodbye.